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Link Posted: 5/11/2024 8:43:05 PM EDT
[#1]
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Originally Posted By Alacran:


Isn't that effectively cutting the electricity to customers until the threat passes and how long could that be?

Knowing the basic immaturity level and preparedness of the general public, that could bring it's own set of problems.

View Quote
Better the natives getting restless for a few hours versus trashing the grid for years possibly.

Nick
Link Posted: 5/11/2024 8:47:21 PM EDT
[#2]
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That's beautiful

I took my dog out to pee around 9:30-10pm last night and it was raining.    Maybe 11pm before I went to bed it was a little foggy and I didn't see anything.  Then 1:30am more foggy and nothing straight up.
So far for tonight its been raining a lot here and mostly total overcast.

Meanwhile friend from work who lives near Washington PA got a nice show last night with some good photos.
Link Posted: 5/11/2024 8:47:44 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Sixgunner45] [#3]
Edit:  This is a repeat of last night's broadcast


NOAA Broadcast (questions and answers)

G5 Storms predicted tonight/tomorrow

?? LIVE NOAA Radio Broadcast | Extreme G5 Geomagnetic Storm Reaches Earth!
Link Posted: 5/11/2024 9:05:13 PM EDT
[#4]
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Originally Posted By Commando_Guy:
Better the natives getting restless for a few hours versus trashing the grid for years possibly.

Nick
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Originally Posted By Commando_Guy:
Originally Posted By Alacran:


Isn't that effectively cutting the electricity to customers until the threat passes and how long could that be?

Knowing the basic immaturity level and preparedness of the general public, that could bring it's own set of problems.

Better the natives getting restless for a few hours versus trashing the grid for years possibly.

Nick


Agree but sill seems like a recipe for a lot of pissed off people.

Link Posted: 5/11/2024 9:11:58 PM EDT
[#5]
Well, headed not h out of CMH on 315. Hope we get another good show
Link Posted: 5/11/2024 9:17:17 PM EDT
[#6]
More to come tonight and tomorrow night apparently.

G5 Geomagnetic Storm Continues - LIVE Breaking News Coverage
Link Posted: 5/11/2024 9:23:31 PM EDT
[#7]
From yesterday.  I'm in Bortle 7 skies, or so, and won't be getting good aurora photos unless I drive a bit.  But, I can get a photo of the sun.

Link Posted: 5/11/2024 9:41:41 PM EDT
[#8]
Does anyone know when it is supposed to turn to G5 tonight?  I am wondering if I should stay up long enough to view it.

It is currently only G1.
Link Posted: 5/11/2024 9:57:12 PM EDT
[#9]
Not sure if we'll get another show tonight but I'm going to head out in about a half-hour and look.
Link Posted: 5/11/2024 9:58:32 PM EDT
[#10]
What's the live status on? G4? G5?
Link Posted: 5/11/2024 10:00:19 PM EDT
[#11]
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Originally Posted By ArmyInfantryVet:
What's the live status on? G4? G5?
View Quote


Only G2 right now.
Link Posted: 5/11/2024 10:01:29 PM EDT
[#12]
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Originally Posted By Sixgunner45:


Only G2 right now.
View Quote

Dang. Probably not visible then.  
Link Posted: 5/11/2024 10:03:36 PM EDT
[#13]
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Originally Posted By ArmyInfantryVet:

Dang. Probably not visible then.  
View Quote


It should be visible in parts of Michigan right now

Here's the Auroral Oval

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/auroral-oval.html
Link Posted: 5/11/2024 10:05:24 PM EDT
[#14]
Link Posted: 5/11/2024 10:24:07 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Cobalt135] [#15]
Nothing spotted here in OH currently except the station pass about 9:20PM

If all else fails you can see another pass starting about 10:50PM in the SE US thru about 11:08 in the NE US.  Looks viewable from SoCal, AZ, NM in a shallow arc up through the WI, MI, central to northern IN, OH, PA and NY


Link Posted: 5/11/2024 10:25:28 PM EDT
[#16]
I finally get nighttime breaks in the clouds here in NOVA and I see nothin'
Link Posted: 5/11/2024 10:32:14 PM EDT
[#17]
Saw them a little in Petoskey MI around 10:15-10:20. They faded away though currently.

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Link Posted: 5/11/2024 10:34:50 PM EDT
[#18]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Sixgunner45:
Does anyone know when it is supposed to turn to G5 tonight?  I am wondering if I should stay up long enough to view it.

It is currently only G1.
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Originally Posted By Sixgunner45:
Does anyone know when it is supposed to turn to G5 tonight?  I am wondering if I should stay up long enough to view it.

It is currently only G1.

The last release I saw said 12:00 UTC I believe.  So just in time for the sun to start coming up over most of the US.  Yeah here we go:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/severe-and-extreme-g4-g5-geomagnetic-storms-likely-12-may-2024

Go easy on the site, they're running the servers pretty hard.  This is all that it says:

SEVERE AND EXTREME (G4-G5) GEOMAGNETIC STORMS LIKELY ON 12 MAY 2024
published: Saturday, May 11, 2024 17:54 UTC
Another series of CMEs associated with flare activity from Region 3664 over the past several days are expected to merge and arrive at Earth by midday (UTC) on 12 May. Periods of G4-G5 (Severe-Extreme) geomagnetic storms are likely to follow the arrival of these CMEs.  
Link Posted: 5/11/2024 10:40:42 PM EDT
[#19]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Alacran:


Isn’t that effectively cutting the electricity to customers until the threat passes and how long could that be?

Knowing the basic immaturity level and preparedness of the general public, that could bring it’s own set of problems.

View Quote

We do the same shit for high winds and fire danger. We always have load shed, disconnecting from the interconnects whatever it takes to protect the grid.
Link Posted: 5/11/2024 10:43:32 PM EDT
[#20]
Link Posted: 5/11/2024 10:52:14 PM EDT
[#21]
So did this weekend prove that solar flare dangers are overblown?
Link Posted: 5/11/2024 10:53:28 PM EDT
[Last Edit: GoldenMead] [#22]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By AngryNagant:
So did this weekend prove that solar flare dangers are overblown?
View Quote

Absolutely not. These are small flares.
Link Posted: 5/11/2024 11:09:18 PM EDT
[Last Edit: brass] [#23]
Link Posted: 5/11/2024 11:12:16 PM EDT
[#24]
Nothing here in NC. Oh well! Last night was amazing, at least.
Link Posted: 5/11/2024 11:20:18 PM EDT
[#25]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By GoldenMead:

Absolutely not. These are small flares.
View Quote


Lol X class flares...
Link Posted: 5/11/2024 11:21:17 PM EDT
[#26]
It is now a G3 solar storm.

I'm going to stay up a couple hours and hopefully it will be a G4-5 again.
Link Posted: 5/11/2024 11:26:10 PM EDT
[#27]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Harlikwin:


Lol X class flares...
View Quote

Very small X class flares
Link Posted: 5/11/2024 11:27:47 PM EDT
[#28]
Lets go HAARP do something
Link Posted: 5/11/2024 11:29:09 PM EDT
[#29]
Last night I went from never seeing the northern lights in my entire life, to having the entire sky above my house lit up like tripping on acid. It was especially wild around 2am with the entire sky flickering, flashing, and pulsing in waves. Wild.
Link Posted: 5/12/2024 12:07:35 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Harlikwin] [#30]
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Originally Posted By GoldenMead:

Very small X class flares
View Quote


I mean at least one of them was an X5, which well, its not an X9 but still I wouldn't call it "smol". And yes I know its a log scale.

Also I think alot of the fear mongering about Carrington belies some ignorance of how stuff worked then vs now in terms of basically very long conductors with no safeguards, versus a modern power grid with tons of them. Yes at the end of the day it can and has gone down. But I really do wonder if at least part of the Carrington issue was just as simple as very long conductors with 0 safeguards, and it wasn't something all that much stronger than what we are seeing now.

Also for example the last really bad grid down was in 89 which pre-dated all of the solar forecasting sats AFAIK. So not much warning for it.

Current sunspot producing our flares with carrington in gray superimposed.
Link Posted: 5/12/2024 1:03:18 AM EDT
[#31]
Link Posted: 5/12/2024 1:11:36 AM EDT
[Last Edit: L_JE] [#32]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Harlikwin:
...
Current sunspot producing our flares with carrington in gray superimposed.
https://spaceweather.com/images2024/11may24/hmi4096_blank_carrington.jpg
View Quote

Cool.  Thanks for posting that.  I now feel better about putting more focus into getting some photographs of that sunspot than getting out of town for a better view of the auroras.
Link Posted: 5/12/2024 1:26:20 AM EDT
[Last Edit: kersty52] [#33]
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Tonight’s show so far.  Got em on video dancing under NODS as well.

Last night

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Link Posted: 5/12/2024 2:05:46 AM EDT
[#34]
“Hey honey.  When I get home from work tonight, let’s go check out the northern lights.  I’ll wake you up.”
“Thanks hun.”

Some random dude

“I’m gonna die in their lobby, right when I see them getting ready to go home.”

Held over to treat him and go to the ER.


Hopefully they are visible tomorrow night.
Link Posted: 5/12/2024 4:03:27 AM EDT
[#35]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By 20229mm:
“Hey honey.  When I get home from work tonight, let’s go check out the northern lights.  I’ll wake you up.”
“Thanks hun.”

Some random dude

“I’m gonna die in their lobby, right when I see them getting ready to go home.”

Held over to treat him and go to the ER.


Hopefully they are visible tomorrow night.
View Quote


Were you able to un die him?
Link Posted: 5/12/2024 7:28:28 AM EDT
[#36]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Harlikwin:


I mean at least one of them was an X5, which well, its not an X9 but still I wouldn't call it "smol". And yes I know its a log scale.

Also I think alot of the fear mongering about Carrington belies some ignorance of how stuff worked then vs now in terms of basically very long conductors with no safeguards, versus a modern power grid with tons of them. Yes at the end of the day it can and has gone down. But I really do wonder if at least part of the Carrington issue was just as simple as very long conductors with 0 safeguards, and it wasn't something all that much stronger than what we are seeing now.

Also for example the last really bad grid down was in 89 which pre-dated all of the solar forecasting sats AFAIK. So not much warning for it.

Current sunspot producing our flares with carrington in gray superimposed.
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Originally Posted By Harlikwin:
Originally Posted By GoldenMead:

Very small X class flares


I mean at least one of them was an X5, which well, its not an X9 but still I wouldn't call it "smol". And yes I know its a log scale.

Also I think alot of the fear mongering about Carrington belies some ignorance of how stuff worked then vs now in terms of basically very long conductors with no safeguards, versus a modern power grid with tons of them. Yes at the end of the day it can and has gone down. But I really do wonder if at least part of the Carrington issue was just as simple as very long conductors with 0 safeguards, and it wasn't something all that much stronger than what we are seeing now.

Also for example the last really bad grid down was in 89 which pre-dated all of the solar forecasting sats AFAIK. So not much warning for it.

Current sunspot producing our flares with carrington in gray superimposed.


The last paper that I've seen that tried to estimate the Carrington Event had it at a X64.4 ± 7.2.  Nothing like what we are seeing currently.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/2041-8213/acd853/pdf
Link Posted: 5/12/2024 9:31:22 AM EDT
[#37]
Northern lights showed up here around 1130 last night but quickly faded away.
Link Posted: 5/12/2024 12:09:22 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Harlikwin] [#38]
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Originally Posted By DaGoose:


The last paper that I've seen that tried to estimate the Carrington Event had it at a X64.4 ± 7.2.  Nothing like what we are seeing currently.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/2041-8213/acd853/pdf
View Quote


Fair enough, but the 2003 flare (biggest in the modern record) was estimated at X45 or so. And tbh that paper talks about all the various previous estimates of carrington being about X30-45. And why they decided tonrecise it upward.
Link Posted: 5/12/2024 2:16:13 PM EDT
[#39]
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Originally Posted By Harlikwin:


Fair enough, but the 2003 flare (biggest in the modern record) was estimated at X45 or so. And tbh that paper talks about all the various previous estimates of carrington being about X30-45. And why they decided tonrecise it upward.
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Originally Posted By Harlikwin:
Originally Posted By DaGoose:


The last paper that I've seen that tried to estimate the Carrington Event had it at a X64.4 ± 7.2.  Nothing like what we are seeing currently.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/2041-8213/acd853/pdf


Fair enough, but the 2003 flare (biggest in the modern record) was estimated at X45 or so. And tbh that paper talks about all the various previous estimates of carrington being about X30-45. And why they decided tonrecise it upward.


Yep, but the CME associated with the 2003 flare wasn't directed at Earth.

https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/SWstorms_assessment.pdf

The last event of significance during this outbreak was an X28e (estimated) major
flare from Region 486, producing category R5 (extreme) radio blackout levels on
November 04 at 1950 UTC (Figure 5). The GOES XRS instrument became saturated at
the X17.5 level for 12 minutes during this flare. Using historical flare data and
mathematical modeling, an estimated peak flux of X28 was assigned. This flare was one
of the strongest flares since GOES XRS measurements began in 1976. Despite the record
size of the flare, its location near the west limb of the Sun limited its impact. The
associated CME, as seen in Figure 5, was directed away from Earth. As a result, the
subsequent radiation storm and geomagnetic storm only reached category S2 (moderate)
and G1 (minor) levels.
Link Posted: 5/12/2024 2:31:18 PM EDT
[#40]
Link Posted: 5/12/2024 2:56:18 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Harlikwin] [#41]
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Originally Posted By DaGoose:


Yep, but the CME associated with the 2003 flare wasn't directed at Earth.

https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/SWstorms_assessment.pdf

The last event of significance during this outbreak was an X28e (estimated) major
flare from Region 486, producing category R5 (extreme) radio blackout levels on
November 04 at 1950 UTC (Figure 5). The GOES XRS instrument became saturated at
the X17.5 level for 12 minutes during this flare. Using historical flare data and
mathematical modeling, an estimated peak flux of X28 was assigned. This flare was one
of the strongest flares since GOES XRS measurements began in 1976. Despite the record
size of the flare, its location near the west limb of the Sun limited its impact. The
associated CME, as seen in Figure 5, was directed away from Earth. As a result, the
subsequent radiation storm and geomagnetic storm only reached category S2 (moderate)
and G1 (minor) levels.
View Quote


My point was simply that the flares of that magnitude happen with let's say a periodicity of let's say 100-150 years or whatever it is. And often arent gonna be pointed at us.
Link Posted: 5/12/2024 2:56:43 PM EDT
[#42]
Friday was pretty awesome.  Totally unprepared for photos but I still managed a few decent ones and a wonky timelapse.  



Link Posted: 5/12/2024 4:33:10 PM EDT
[#43]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Harlikwin:


My point was simply that the flares of that magnitude happen with let's say a periodicity of let's say 100-150 years or whatever it is. And often arent gonna be pointed at us.
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Originally Posted By Harlikwin:
Originally Posted By DaGoose:


Yep, but the CME associated with the 2003 flare wasn't directed at Earth.

https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/SWstorms_assessment.pdf

The last event of significance during this outbreak was an X28e (estimated) major
flare from Region 486, producing category R5 (extreme) radio blackout levels on
November 04 at 1950 UTC (Figure 5). The GOES XRS instrument became saturated at
the X17.5 level for 12 minutes during this flare. Using historical flare data and
mathematical modeling, an estimated peak flux of X28 was assigned. This flare was one
of the strongest flares since GOES XRS measurements began in 1976. Despite the record
size of the flare, its location near the west limb of the Sun limited its impact. The
associated CME, as seen in Figure 5, was directed away from Earth. As a result, the
subsequent radiation storm and geomagnetic storm only reached category S2 (moderate)
and G1 (minor) levels.


My point was simply that the flares of that magnitude happen with let's say a periodicity of let's say 100-150 years or whatever it is. And often arent gonna be pointed at us.


I would say that flares of that magnitude hit us with a periodicity of 100-150 years.  With spacecraft now, we are seeing that they may be more common than expected.

The 2012 flare/CME may have been equivalent to the Carrington Event even though the flare was only a X2.5, so we may not even be able to correlate flare strength with the damage that it could cause.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2012_solar_storm
Link Posted: 5/12/2024 6:36:02 PM EDT
[#44]







Link Posted: 5/12/2024 6:50:30 PM EDT
[#45]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Shockergd:


Yes, but during the Carrington event, the telegraph wires that caught on fire were hundreds of miles long with no breaks. Much of our grid can be disconnected remotely. By 2030-2035 the entire grid can be disconnected if needed in case if a major cme.
View Quote


Yeah, I have heard this argument and I think thankfully its a good one. Also supposedly at least some critical infrastructure in terms of spare transformers is supposed to get bought and stored for "just in case" type events.
Link Posted: 5/12/2024 6:54:53 PM EDT
[#46]
Naked eye didn't see much, some streaks that looked kind of like clouds.
Phone picked up some stuff especially when switched to night mode.
The more bluish one was regular mode after night mode, the sensitivity much have stayed higher for a pic or two.
Not bad for being in South Carolina with a cell phone camera.

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Link Posted: 5/12/2024 7:03:53 PM EDT
[#47]
I hope it pops back out tonight now that the weather is better, my wife and kids missed fridays show

Doesnt look like it will happen tonight for them though
Link Posted: 5/12/2024 7:38:00 PM EDT
[#48]
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Originally Posted By buckstrucks:


Were you able to un die him?
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Originally Posted By buckstrucks:
Originally Posted By 20229mm:
“Hey honey.  When I get home from work tonight, let’s go check out the northern lights.  I’ll wake you up.”
“Thanks hun.”

Some random dude

“I’m gonna die in their lobby, right when I see them getting ready to go home.”

Held over to treat him and go to the ER.


Hopefully they are visible tomorrow night.


Were you able to un die him?

Yes.  He got very lucky.  
4 vessels blocked.  Went into cardiac arrest in the lobby.  Right as I was going to head home.  Station would have been unmanned for the next day
Link Posted: 5/12/2024 9:23:34 PM EDT
[#49]
Solarham summary of the event, picture heavy: LINK
Link Posted: 5/12/2024 9:27:50 PM EDT
[#50]
How's tonight's chance look.
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