User Panel
[#1]
Originally Posted By Alacran: Isn't that effectively cutting the electricity to customers until the threat passes and how long could that be? Knowing the basic immaturity level and preparedness of the general public, that could bring it's own set of problems. View Quote Nick |
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If the enemy is range, so are you.
Don't mind Sylvan, he's fond of throwing intellectual Molotov cocktails. |
[#2]
Originally Posted By cmxterra: Just a few of the many I got here in Minnesota last night. Had to shrink them down. Thinking of going out again tonight even though they are saying we might have a little bit of cloud cover. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/156207/_DSC1836-Enhanced-NRsmall_jpg-3211651.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/156207/_DSC1929-Enhanced-NRsmall_jpg-3211652.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/156207/_DSC1942-Enhanced-NR-small_jpg-3211653.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/156207/_DSC1974-Enhanced-NR_copy-small_jpg-3211654.JPG View Quote That's beautiful I took my dog out to pee around 9:30-10pm last night and it was raining. Maybe 11pm before I went to bed it was a little foggy and I didn't see anything. Then 1:30am more foggy and nothing straight up. So far for tonight its been raining a lot here and mostly total overcast. Meanwhile friend from work who lives near Washington PA got a nice show last night with some good photos. |
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[Last Edit: Sixgunner45]
[#3]
Edit: This is a repeat of last night's broadcast
NOAA Broadcast (questions and answers) G5 Storms predicted tonight/tomorrow ?? LIVE NOAA Radio Broadcast | Extreme G5 Geomagnetic Storm Reaches Earth! |
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[#4]
Originally Posted By Commando_Guy: Better the natives getting restless for a few hours versus trashing the grid for years possibly. Nick View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Commando_Guy: Originally Posted By Alacran: Isn't that effectively cutting the electricity to customers until the threat passes and how long could that be? Knowing the basic immaturity level and preparedness of the general public, that could bring it's own set of problems. Nick Agree but sill seems like a recipe for a lot of pissed off people. |
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My ar15.com quote in WorldNetDaily - https://www.wnd.com/2008/02/45823/
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[#5]
Well, headed not h out of CMH on 315. Hope we get another good show
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[#6]
More to come tonight and tomorrow night apparently.
G5 Geomagnetic Storm Continues - LIVE Breaking News Coverage |
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It's a strange, strange world we live in, Master Jack
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[#7]
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[#8]
Does anyone know when it is supposed to turn to G5 tonight? I am wondering if I should stay up long enough to view it.
It is currently only G1. |
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[#9]
Not sure if we'll get another show tonight but I'm going to head out in about a half-hour and look.
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"GD: serious answers to ridiculous questions and ridiculous answers to serious questions" --Naamah
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[#10]
What's the live status on? G4? G5?
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[#11]
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[#12]
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[#13]
Originally Posted By ArmyInfantryVet: Dang. Probably not visible then. View Quote It should be visible in parts of Michigan right now Here's the Auroral Oval https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/auroral-oval.html |
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[#14]
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[Last Edit: Cobalt135]
[#15]
Nothing spotted here in OH currently except the station pass about 9:20PM
If all else fails you can see another pass starting about 10:50PM in the SE US thru about 11:08 in the NE US. Looks viewable from SoCal, AZ, NM in a shallow arc up through the WI, MI, central to northern IN, OH, PA and NY |
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[#16]
I finally get nighttime breaks in the clouds here in NOVA and I see nothin'
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[#17]
Saw them a little in Petoskey MI around 10:15-10:20. They faded away though currently.
Attached File |
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[#18]
Originally Posted By Sixgunner45: Does anyone know when it is supposed to turn to G5 tonight? I am wondering if I should stay up long enough to view it. It is currently only G1. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Sixgunner45: Does anyone know when it is supposed to turn to G5 tonight? I am wondering if I should stay up long enough to view it. It is currently only G1. The last release I saw said 12:00 UTC I believe. So just in time for the sun to start coming up over most of the US. Yeah here we go: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/severe-and-extreme-g4-g5-geomagnetic-storms-likely-12-may-2024 Go easy on the site, they're running the servers pretty hard. This is all that it says: SEVERE AND EXTREME (G4-G5) GEOMAGNETIC STORMS LIKELY ON 12 MAY 2024 published: Saturday, May 11, 2024 17:54 UTC Another series of CMEs associated with flare activity from Region 3664 over the past several days are expected to merge and arrive at Earth by midday (UTC) on 12 May. Periods of G4-G5 (Severe-Extreme) geomagnetic storms are likely to follow the arrival of these CMEs. |
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Sarcasm is an art and I'm painting my master piece
OK, USA
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[#19]
Originally Posted By Alacran: Isn’t that effectively cutting the electricity to customers until the threat passes and how long could that be? Knowing the basic immaturity level and preparedness of the general public, that could bring it’s own set of problems. View Quote We do the same shit for high winds and fire danger. We always have load shed, disconnecting from the interconnects whatever it takes to protect the grid. |
I've been blessed with many things in this life: an arm like a damn rocket, a cock like a burmese python, and the mind of a fucking scientist.
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[#20]
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I know I'll never go home.
So set fire to your ships, and past regrets, and be free. |
[#21]
So did this weekend prove that solar flare dangers are overblown?
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[Last Edit: GoldenMead]
[#22]
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[Last Edit: brass]
[#23]
Originally Posted By tct1000: i just held up my multimeter terminals into thin air and registered 120V's View Quote @tct1000 That is Entirely Normal There is a natural voltage gradient from the ionosphere to ground with an average of 100V/meter above ground level. The problem is to utilize it, you need a large collection area to match the atmospheric output impedance that's roughly 375Ω. That doesn't let you use much current without the voltage dropping entirely to zero, so must put many in parallel. Antennas are simple devices to match impedance from an electric line to the atmosphere to emit electromagnetic radiation. Receiving is easy, but not "free energy" easy. We're also constantly bathed with 60Hz to 20Mhz EMI radiation of different levels from all the wires in our house acting as antennas to both transmit and receive and our switching power supplies running at a much high frequency (to hundreds of Mhz and more) to use smaller inductive reactive components instead of the big brick power adapters we had in the 90s and before. We don't know if that is a good thing or a bad thing yet. @Alacran Either an EMP or Carrington Event level CME would put us back to the 1800s and likely start wars that have been brewing a long time. A whole ton of skills would need to be re-learned from building electric generators and motors to smelting metal and recycling. Hard to do that when in the middle of a civil war which is happening at the same time as a world war land grab. It literally could put our dumb asses into an ignorant self imposed Extinction Level Event, not from primary causes but from secondary and further reactions. We need to be adding magnetic shielding to all of our infrastructure in addition to the RF (Faraday) Shielding to prevent stray RF radiation, steel plates need to enclose all infrastructure to route magnetic anomalies around the structure instead of just through it. Rebar isn't enough for the magnetic portion, though mesh rebar does reduce the RF level surges, magnetic surges on our power lines are the biggest vulnerability. Need many more fuses and spark gap arrestors to route any 1kV+ surge to ground and enclose all transformers in steel entirely with more than just a steel case to lower the impact a bit, a second enclosure being both a Faraday/RF conductive and magnetic (high magnetic permeability materials like iron plate) shield on all of our infrastructure is "too expensive to consider" when the alternative is living in the Wild West again, I can't really think of anything more important than that. All this money for culture BS and 3rd world country aid who end up funding terrorists could be building protection for the majority of our grid. Most data centers already have these protections in place, same with telco (sometimes co-located with data centers). The source of it all, the electric power grid has the most long length free air cables off the ground and unprotected substations and is ripe for an attack, and we have no spare parts for even a minor event. |
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The person who complains most, and is the most critical of others has the most to hide.
All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident. |
[#24]
Nothing here in NC. Oh well! Last night was amazing, at least.
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"GD: serious answers to ridiculous questions and ridiculous answers to serious questions" --Naamah
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[#25]
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[#26]
It is now a G3 solar storm.
I'm going to stay up a couple hours and hopefully it will be a G4-5 again. |
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[#27]
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[#28]
Lets go HAARP do something
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[#29]
Last night I went from never seeing the northern lights in my entire life, to having the entire sky above my house lit up like tripping on acid. It was especially wild around 2am with the entire sky flickering, flashing, and pulsing in waves. Wild.
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[#31]
Originally Posted By Ciraxis: My first time ever seeing them. Unfucking real, the sky just exploded with light and color https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/184584/aurora_jpeg-3211243.JPG I have a ton of shots to go through but I’m off to bed View Quote @Ciraxis Seeing a good aurora show is one of the great natural shows behind only the eclipse. Rainbow and sun dogs and others are on the top 5, but total eclipse and heavy multi-color aurora curtains is a site to see. The cameras both enhance and don't represent it, the camera doesn't catch the fading in and out and flow of curtains, though the camera get the colors much brighter, it's frozen and not the ephemeral wisps of it. |
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The person who complains most, and is the most critical of others has the most to hide.
All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident. |
[Last Edit: L_JE]
[#32]
Originally Posted By Harlikwin: ... Current sunspot producing our flares with carrington in gray superimposed. https://spaceweather.com/images2024/11may24/hmi4096_blank_carrington.jpg View Quote Cool. Thanks for posting that. I now feel better about putting more focus into getting some photographs of that sunspot than getting out of town for a better view of the auroras. |
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[Last Edit: kersty52]
[#33]
Attached File
Attached File Attached File Tonight’s show so far. Got em on video dancing under NODS as well. Last night Attached File Attached File |
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TexasRifleman1985: "Privi is good shit. Those people know how to kill people, and their ammo reflects that."
far_right: "When you shoot it, it smells like genocide. " |
[#34]
“Hey honey. When I get home from work tonight, let’s go check out the northern lights. I’ll wake you up.”
“Thanks hun.” Some random dude “I’m gonna die in their lobby, right when I see them getting ready to go home.” Held over to treat him and go to the ER. Hopefully they are visible tomorrow night. |
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[#35]
Originally Posted By 20229mm: “Hey honey. When I get home from work tonight, let’s go check out the northern lights. I’ll wake you up.” “Thanks hun.” Some random dude “I’m gonna die in their lobby, right when I see them getting ready to go home.” Held over to treat him and go to the ER. Hopefully they are visible tomorrow night. View Quote Were you able to un die him? |
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[#36]
Originally Posted By Harlikwin: I mean at least one of them was an X5, which well, its not an X9 but still I wouldn't call it "smol". And yes I know its a log scale. Also I think alot of the fear mongering about Carrington belies some ignorance of how stuff worked then vs now in terms of basically very long conductors with no safeguards, versus a modern power grid with tons of them. Yes at the end of the day it can and has gone down. But I really do wonder if at least part of the Carrington issue was just as simple as very long conductors with 0 safeguards, and it wasn't something all that much stronger than what we are seeing now. Also for example the last really bad grid down was in 89 which pre-dated all of the solar forecasting sats AFAIK. So not much warning for it. Current sunspot producing our flares with carrington in gray superimposed. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Harlikwin: Originally Posted By GoldenMead: Very small X class flares I mean at least one of them was an X5, which well, its not an X9 but still I wouldn't call it "smol". And yes I know its a log scale. Also I think alot of the fear mongering about Carrington belies some ignorance of how stuff worked then vs now in terms of basically very long conductors with no safeguards, versus a modern power grid with tons of them. Yes at the end of the day it can and has gone down. But I really do wonder if at least part of the Carrington issue was just as simple as very long conductors with 0 safeguards, and it wasn't something all that much stronger than what we are seeing now. Also for example the last really bad grid down was in 89 which pre-dated all of the solar forecasting sats AFAIK. So not much warning for it. Current sunspot producing our flares with carrington in gray superimposed. The last paper that I've seen that tried to estimate the Carrington Event had it at a X64.4 ± 7.2. Nothing like what we are seeing currently. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/2041-8213/acd853/pdf |
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[#37]
Northern lights showed up here around 1130 last night but quickly faded away.
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[Last Edit: Harlikwin]
[#38]
Originally Posted By DaGoose: The last paper that I've seen that tried to estimate the Carrington Event had it at a X64.4 ± 7.2. Nothing like what we are seeing currently. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/2041-8213/acd853/pdf View Quote Fair enough, but the 2003 flare (biggest in the modern record) was estimated at X45 or so. And tbh that paper talks about all the various previous estimates of carrington being about X30-45. And why they decided tonrecise it upward. |
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[#39]
Originally Posted By Harlikwin: Fair enough, but the 2003 flare (biggest in the modern record) was estimated at X45 or so. And tbh that paper talks about all the various previous estimates of carrington being about X30-45. And why they decided tonrecise it upward. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Harlikwin: Originally Posted By DaGoose: The last paper that I've seen that tried to estimate the Carrington Event had it at a X64.4 ± 7.2. Nothing like what we are seeing currently. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/2041-8213/acd853/pdf Fair enough, but the 2003 flare (biggest in the modern record) was estimated at X45 or so. And tbh that paper talks about all the various previous estimates of carrington being about X30-45. And why they decided tonrecise it upward. Yep, but the CME associated with the 2003 flare wasn't directed at Earth. https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/SWstorms_assessment.pdf The last event of significance during this outbreak was an X28e (estimated) major flare from Region 486, producing category R5 (extreme) radio blackout levels on November 04 at 1950 UTC (Figure 5). The GOES XRS instrument became saturated at the X17.5 level for 12 minutes during this flare. Using historical flare data and mathematical modeling, an estimated peak flux of X28 was assigned. This flare was one of the strongest flares since GOES XRS measurements began in 1976. Despite the record size of the flare, its location near the west limb of the Sun limited its impact. The associated CME, as seen in Figure 5, was directed away from Earth. As a result, the subsequent radiation storm and geomagnetic storm only reached category S2 (moderate) and G1 (minor) levels. |
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[#40]
Originally Posted By GoldenMead: Northern lights showed up here around 1130 last night but quickly faded away. View Quote I only saw a minor show, similar to what is seen on some fall/winter nights. Nothing jaw dropping like the photos from previous nights that are posted in this thread. This was amazing to have them seen in Florida and Louisiana! Hopefully won't see for a while again and not a precursor to something that would simply rip most of our ionosphere away. |
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The person who complains most, and is the most critical of others has the most to hide.
All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident. |
[Last Edit: Harlikwin]
[#41]
Originally Posted By DaGoose: Yep, but the CME associated with the 2003 flare wasn't directed at Earth. https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/SWstorms_assessment.pdf The last event of significance during this outbreak was an X28e (estimated) major flare from Region 486, producing category R5 (extreme) radio blackout levels on November 04 at 1950 UTC (Figure 5). The GOES XRS instrument became saturated at the X17.5 level for 12 minutes during this flare. Using historical flare data and mathematical modeling, an estimated peak flux of X28 was assigned. This flare was one of the strongest flares since GOES XRS measurements began in 1976. Despite the record size of the flare, its location near the west limb of the Sun limited its impact. The associated CME, as seen in Figure 5, was directed away from Earth. As a result, the subsequent radiation storm and geomagnetic storm only reached category S2 (moderate) and G1 (minor) levels. View Quote My point was simply that the flares of that magnitude happen with let's say a periodicity of let's say 100-150 years or whatever it is. And often arent gonna be pointed at us. |
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[#42]
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smiley_bandit.gif Shift-
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[#43]
Originally Posted By Harlikwin: My point was simply that the flares of that magnitude happen with let's say a periodicity of let's say 100-150 years or whatever it is. And often arent gonna be pointed at us. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Harlikwin: Originally Posted By DaGoose: Yep, but the CME associated with the 2003 flare wasn't directed at Earth. https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/SWstorms_assessment.pdf The last event of significance during this outbreak was an X28e (estimated) major flare from Region 486, producing category R5 (extreme) radio blackout levels on November 04 at 1950 UTC (Figure 5). The GOES XRS instrument became saturated at the X17.5 level for 12 minutes during this flare. Using historical flare data and mathematical modeling, an estimated peak flux of X28 was assigned. This flare was one of the strongest flares since GOES XRS measurements began in 1976. Despite the record size of the flare, its location near the west limb of the Sun limited its impact. The associated CME, as seen in Figure 5, was directed away from Earth. As a result, the subsequent radiation storm and geomagnetic storm only reached category S2 (moderate) and G1 (minor) levels. My point was simply that the flares of that magnitude happen with let's say a periodicity of let's say 100-150 years or whatever it is. And often arent gonna be pointed at us. I would say that flares of that magnitude hit us with a periodicity of 100-150 years. With spacecraft now, we are seeing that they may be more common than expected. The 2012 flare/CME may have been equivalent to the Carrington Event even though the flare was only a X2.5, so we may not even be able to correlate flare strength with the damage that it could cause. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2012_solar_storm |
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[#44]
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[#45]
Originally Posted By Shockergd: Yes, but during the Carrington event, the telegraph wires that caught on fire were hundreds of miles long with no breaks. Much of our grid can be disconnected remotely. By 2030-2035 the entire grid can be disconnected if needed in case if a major cme. View Quote Yeah, I have heard this argument and I think thankfully its a good one. Also supposedly at least some critical infrastructure in terms of spare transformers is supposed to get bought and stored for "just in case" type events. |
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[#46]
Naked eye didn't see much, some streaks that looked kind of like clouds.
Phone picked up some stuff especially when switched to night mode. The more bluish one was regular mode after night mode, the sensitivity much have stayed higher for a pic or two. Not bad for being in South Carolina with a cell phone camera. Attached File Attached File |
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Vote for freedom, not political parties
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[#47]
I hope it pops back out tonight now that the weather is better, my wife and kids missed fridays show
Doesnt look like it will happen tonight for them though |
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[#48]
Originally Posted By buckstrucks: Were you able to un die him? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By buckstrucks: Originally Posted By 20229mm: “Hey honey. When I get home from work tonight, let’s go check out the northern lights. I’ll wake you up.” “Thanks hun.” Some random dude “I’m gonna die in their lobby, right when I see them getting ready to go home.” Held over to treat him and go to the ER. Hopefully they are visible tomorrow night. Were you able to un die him? Yes. He got very lucky. 4 vessels blocked. Went into cardiac arrest in the lobby. Right as I was going to head home. Station would have been unmanned for the next day |
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[#49]
Solarham summary of the event, picture heavy: LINK
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"...Capitalism...shares its blessings unequally; ...Socialism...shares its miseries equally."
Winston Churchill |
[#50]
How's tonight's chance look.
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Proud LaRue Fan
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