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Link Posted: 4/16/2024 5:15:11 PM EDT
[#1]
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Originally Posted By realwar:

Israel must have some damn good spies down on the ground sending info in trade for $$$.
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Israel has the Shin Bet.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 5:16:23 PM EDT
[#2]
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Originally Posted By michigan66:

Where did you see the Houthis have fired 90 missiles/drones in 2 days?

CENTCOM and the UKMTO haven't reported anything since the 13th of April.  The Houthis ops tempo has slowed way down as of late.
View Quote


Came directly from CENTCOM as reported by the WSJ and others, statement yesterday.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 5:19:30 PM EDT
[#3]
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Originally Posted By realwar:



Israel must have some damn good spies down on the ground sending info in trade for $$$.
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Originally Posted By realwar:
Originally Posted By michigan66:
Israel hit another Hezbollah commander, making two so far today.




https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/501718/IMG_1674_jpeg-3189683.JPG



Israel must have some damn good spies down on the ground sending info in trade for $$$.


Mossad in their own neighborhood? Shiiiit…
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 5:23:41 PM EDT
[#4]
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Originally Posted By realwar:



Israel must have some damn good spies down on the ground sending info in trade for $$$.
View Quote

Either that or they have some good KFC.

What does Isreal have in reserve to really do anything in retaliation? Their economy will tank if they mobilize more then they did for Gaza, given their history with short strategic conflicts any drawn out large scale action will be disastrous.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 5:33:05 PM EDT
[Last Edit: michigan66] [#5]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Dragynn:
Came directly from CENTCOM as reported by the WSJ and others, statement yesterday
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Originally Posted By Dragynn:
Came directly from CENTCOM as reported by the WSJ and others, statement yesterday

OK, found it.  That is the total of everything that was fired at Israel, including what was fired from Iran, and intercepted by CENTCOM so they weren't all from the Houthis.  

I agree with your bigger point and have advocated slamming the Arabian Hillbillies and their Iranian friends since October.  


Defense of Israel Activities Update

On April 13 and the morning of April 14, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces, supported by U.S. European Command destroyers, successfully engaged and destroyed more than 80 one-way attack uncrewed aerial vehicles (OWA UAV) and at least six ballistic missiles intended to strike Israel from Iran and Yemen.

This includes a ballistic missile on its launcher vehicle and seven UAVs destroyed on the ground in Iranian-backed Houthi controlled areas of Yemen prior to their launch.

Iran's continued unprecedented, malign, and reckless behavior endangers regional stability and the safety of U.S. and coalition forces.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 5:52:19 PM EDT
[#6]
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Originally Posted By michigan66:

I agree with your bigger point and have advocated slamming the Arabian Hillbillies .  
View Quote


I think we can all agree on that, I said back in 2008-2009 that Yemen would be the next big trouble spot in the area, i'm sorry to say I was right.

Buncha methbillies, for those who don't know, look up "khat", it's basically the meth plant of the ME and Africa, the Yemeni's are so addicted to that shit that one report I read said that half of all their arable farmlands which once produced food, have now been co-opted for growing khat.

So, nasty scheming methheads with weapons of war supplied by Iran.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 5:56:51 PM EDT
[#7]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Dragynn:I think we can all agree on that, I said back in 2008-2009 that Yemen would be the next big trouble spot in the area, i'm sorry to say I was right.

Buncha methbillies, for those who don't know, look up "khat", it's basically the meth plant of the ME and Africa, the Yemeni's are so addicted to that shit that one report I read said that half of all their arable farmlands which once produced food, have now been co-opted for growing khat.

So, nasty scheming methheads with weapons of war supplied by Iran.
View Quote

Not sure if it's khat in his mouth or his rotten teeth.Attachment Attached File
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 6:03:56 PM EDT
[#8]
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Originally Posted By BM1455:
View Quote

That’s a good start.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 6:04:59 PM EDT
[#9]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By michigan66:

Not sure if it's khat in his mouth or his rotten teeth.https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/501718/IMG_1665_jpeg-3189753.JPG
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Originally Posted By michigan66:
Originally Posted By Dragynn:I think we can all agree on that, I said back in 2008-2009 that Yemen would be the next big trouble spot in the area, i'm sorry to say I was right.

Buncha methbillies, for those who don't know, look up "khat", it's basically the meth plant of the ME and Africa, the Yemeni's are so addicted to that shit that one report I read said that half of all their arable farmlands which once produced food, have now been co-opted for growing khat.

So, nasty scheming methheads with weapons of war supplied by Iran.

Not sure if it's khat in his mouth or his rotten teeth.https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/501718/IMG_1665_jpeg-3189753.JPG


Looks like the guy in the far left of the pic is holding a bag of it while smoking a cig.

Absolute human garbage.

Link Posted: 4/16/2024 6:07:54 PM EDT
[#10]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Stillnothere:
They know Iran is all spun up now for a response. Drag it out a couple days, units will be tired and complacent and not as combat effective as they were initially, whereas Isarel can ensure that it's forces are well rested.
View Quote



There was a link a few pages back that showed Iranian missile launchers already  lining up already for the upcoming parade celebrating Army Day or whatever on the 18th in downtown Tehran.
Hitting that parade would be priceless.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 6:10:54 PM EDT
[#11]
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 6:13:06 PM EDT
[#12]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Pair_of_ACES:


Looks like the guy in the far left of the pic is holding a bag of it while smoking a cig.

Absolute human garbage.
View Quote


He is, and the other guy's got a mouthful. All drugged up and ready to go. It's sick.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 6:19:06 PM EDT
[#13]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By michigan66:

Not sure if it's khat in his mouth or his rotten teeth.https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/501718/IMG_1665_jpeg-3189753.JPG
View Quote

A Yemeni dentist is either the most lucrative job or you get raped to death before graduation. I can't see an in between
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 7:00:19 PM EDT
[#14]


Attachment Attached File
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 7:11:31 PM EDT
[#15]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By thesilvercord:


https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/327183/IMG_3078_jpeg-3189803.JPG
View Quote



Good Potato would probably give Iran a heads up.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 7:12:32 PM EDT
[#16]
Here's my hot take:

The fact that we've got craters and damage within an Israeli Airbase in the Negev is a major item in itself.

I'm not going to get into "the weeds" regarding Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD), but rather focus on what Iran just demonstrated:

Iran just demonstrated that despite heavy GPS jamming (planes were warping hundreds of miles away on flight tracker) they were able to get pretty good accuracy levels with mass produced weapons capable of being handled by the semi-bog standard IRGC officer/enlisted.

This is pretty significant, because it's a capability equal to what the IAF had in 1982 -- the ability to make a long range (1000 mile / 1600 km) strike against a heavily defended target and place payload(s) on the target.

Operation Babylon in 1981 was a 700 mile (1,130~ km) strike that required extremely high proficiency -- the IAF used unguided Mk 84 2000 lb bombs to strike the reactor -- plus advanced technology (8 x F-16A plus 6 x F-15As).

That's really hard to achieve with "conventional" weapons for a second/third world nation -- because the Air Force(s) of those nations are always hotbeds of hotheaded young officers, and coups always start off with the Presidental Palace being bombed by jet aircraft -- so the skill level/training of those Air Forces were retarded as a way to protect the Regime(s).

Plus of course; until now, such approaches were possible, but highly attritional, unless you had absolute air supremacy like the USAF can achieve -- i.e. you can bomb the heavily defended target 700+ miles away, but you're going to lose a good fraction of your highly trained pilot force and their very expensive jets.

In both cases -- Pilots and Jets -- losses will take years to recover from (if at all).

Well now; the shoe is on the other foot; with Israel being bombed from long range by another state, instead of Israel being the one doing the bombing.

That's what's driving this massive temper tantrum by the Israeli leadership (both political and military) -- because they've been stunted in their political thinking for so long as they've escaped/never had to face consequences for their actions in the Middle East until now.

Essentially, they're upset over the fact that "Iran can do to us what we've been doing to the entire middle east since about 1956."

You only need to look at what Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant told SecDef Austin per news reports:

"Israel won't accept an equation in which Iran responds with a direct attack every time Israel strikes targets in Syria, Gallant added."

Crudely put, Iran basically put Israel on notice:

"Hey, you want to keep teabagging Syria? Say hello to my little friend(s)."

This is apparently unacceptable to the Israeli politico-defense establishment.


Israeli establishment reacting

For some strange reason they have a hard on for Syria -- recall that in Winter 2022, Israel denied SPIKE ATGM export licenses to the US, Germany and the Baltic States -- we were asking to send them to Ukraine to stop the Russian armored columns -- and Israel said no.

Basically, Israel did that to preserve freedom of manuver in Syria -- IOW to buy complicity from the Russians in the Russians letting the IAF do whatever they want in Syria as long as the IAF doesn't bomb Russian troops in Syria.

It's the most brazen display of realpolitik I've seen in my lifetime.

FYI, the second most brazen display of realpolitik I've seen in my life is the "we didn't bomb the Iranian embassy!" cope by the Israelis. Um, you bombed a building right NEXT to it. That's effectively defacto bombing it. Do you think anyone else would accept this excuse if it happened to their embassy?
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 7:14:36 PM EDT
[#17]
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Originally Posted By Ike838:



There was a link a few pages back that showed Iranian missile launchers already  lining up already for the upcoming parade celebrating Army Day or whatever on the 18th in downtown Tehran.
Hitting that parade would be priceless.
View Quote


Indeed, it would be a shame if something happened to their parade
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 7:18:40 PM EDT
[#18]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By MKSheppard:
Here's my hot take:

The fact that we've got craters and damage within an Israeli Airbase in the Negev is a major item in itself.

I'm not going to get into "the weeds" regarding Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD), but rather focus on what Iran just demonstrated:

Iran just demonstrated that despite heavy GPS jamming (planes were warping hundreds of miles away on flight tracker) they were able to get pretty good accuracy levels with mass produced weapons capable of being handled by the semi-bog standard IRGC officer/enlisted.

This is pretty significant, because it's a capability equal to what the IAF had in 1982 -- the ability to make a long range (1000 mile / 1600 km) strike against a heavily defended target and place payload(s) on the target.

Operation Babylon in 1981 was a 700 mile (1,130~ km) strike that required extremely high proficiency -- the IAF used unguided Mk 84 2000 lb bombs to strike the reactor -- plus advanced technology (8 x F-16A plus 6 x F-15As).

That's really hard to achieve with "conventional" weapons for a second/third world nation -- because the Air Force(s) of those nations are always hotbeds of hotheaded young officers, and coups always start off with the Presidental Palace being bombed by jet aircraft -- so the skill level/training of those Air Forces were retarded as a way to protect the Regime(s).

Plus of course; until now, such approaches were possible, but highly attritional, unless you had absolute air supremacy like the USAF can achieve -- i.e. you can bomb the heavily defended target 700+ miles away, but you're going to lose a good fraction of your highly trained pilot force and their very expensive jets.

In both cases -- Pilots and Jets -- losses will take years to recover from (if at all).

Well now; the shoe is on the other foot; with Israel being bombed from long range by another state, instead of Israel being the one doing the bombing.

That's what's driving this massive temper tantrum by the Israeli leadership (both political and military) -- because they've been stunted in their political thinking for so long as they've escaped/never had to face consequences for their actions in the Middle East until now.

Essentially, they're upset over the fact that "Iran can do to us what we've been doing to the entire middle east since about 1956."

You only need to look at what Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant told SecDef Austin per news reports:

"Israel won't accept an equation in which Iran responds with a direct attack every time Israel strikes targets in Syria, Gallant added."

Crudely put, Iran basically put Israel on notice:

"Hey, you want to keep teabagging Syria? Say hello to my little friend(s)."

This is apparently unacceptable to the Israeli politico-defense establishment.

https://media.tenor.com/7vqtIP8KVoAAAAAi/chudjak-poljak.gif
Israeli establishment reacting

For some strange reason they have a hard on for Syria -- recall that in Winter 2022, Israel denied SPIKE ATGM export licenses to the US, Germany and the Baltic States -- we were asking to send them to Ukraine to stop the Russian armored columns -- and Israel said no.

Basically, Israel did that to preserve freedom of manuver in Syria -- IOW to buy complicity from the Russians in the Russians letting the IAF do whatever they want in Syria as long as the IAF doesn't bomb Russian troops in Syria.

It's the most brazen display of realpolitik I've seen in my lifetime.

FYI, the second most brazen display of realpolitik I've seen in my life is the "we didn't bomb the Iranian embassy!" cope by the Israelis. Um, you bombed a building right NEXT to it. That's effectively defacto bombing it. Do you think anyone else would accept this excuse if it happened to their embassy?
View Quote

Are you chewing that shit too?
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 7:32:52 PM EDT
[#19]
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Originally Posted By Brian01:
At a minimum, Israel should try to test Iran's air defense capacities.
View Quote


Scuttlebutt is they have, several times.

Link Posted: 4/16/2024 7:37:58 PM EDT
[#20]
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 7:45:47 PM EDT
[#21]
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 7:49:07 PM EDT
[#22]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By MKSheppard:
Here's my hot take:

The fact that we've got craters and damage within an Israeli Airbase in the Negev is a major item in itself.

I'm not going to get into "the weeds" regarding Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD), but rather focus on what Iran just demonstrated:

Iran just demonstrated that despite heavy GPS jamming (planes were warping hundreds of miles away on flight tracker) they were able to get pretty good accuracy levels with mass produced weapons capable of being handled by the semi-bog standard IRGC officer/enlisted.

This is pretty significant, because it's a capability equal to what the IAF had in 1982 -- the ability to make a long range (1000 mile / 1600 km) strike against a heavily defended target and place payload(s) on the target.

Operation Babylon in 1981 was a 700 mile (1,130~ km) strike that required extremely high proficiency -- the IAF used unguided Mk 84 2000 lb bombs to strike the reactor -- plus advanced technology (8 x F-16A plus 6 x F-15As).

That's really hard to achieve with "conventional" weapons for a second/third world nation -- because the Air Force(s) of those nations are always hotbeds of hotheaded young officers, and coups always start off with the Presidental Palace being bombed by jet aircraft -- so the skill level/training of those Air Forces were retarded as a way to protect the Regime(s).

Plus of course; until now, such approaches were possible, but highly attritional, unless you had absolute air supremacy like the USAF can achieve -- i.e. you can bomb the heavily defended target 700+ miles away, but you're going to lose a good fraction of your highly trained pilot force and their very expensive jets.

In both cases -- Pilots and Jets -- losses will take years to recover from (if at all).

Well now; the shoe is on the other foot; with Israel being bombed from long range by another state, instead of Israel being the one doing the bombing.

That's what's driving this massive temper tantrum by the Israeli leadership (both political and military) -- because they've been stunted in their political thinking for so long as they've escaped/never had to face consequences for their actions in the Middle East until now.

Essentially, they're upset over the fact that "Iran can do to us what we've been doing to the entire middle east since about 1956."

You only need to look at what Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant told SecDef Austin per news reports:

"Israel won't accept an equation in which Iran responds with a direct attack every time Israel strikes targets in Syria, Gallant added."

Crudely put, Iran basically put Israel on notice:

"Hey, you want to keep teabagging Syria? Say hello to my little friend(s)."

This is apparently unacceptable to the Israeli politico-defense establishment.

https://media.tenor.com/7vqtIP8KVoAAAAAi/chudjak-poljak.gif
Israeli establishment reacting

For some strange reason they have a hard on for Syria -- recall that in Winter 2022, Israel denied SPIKE ATGM export licenses to the US, Germany and the Baltic States -- we were asking to send them to Ukraine to stop the Russian armored columns -- and Israel said no.

Basically, Israel did that to preserve freedom of manuver in Syria -- IOW to buy complicity from the Russians in the Russians letting the IAF do whatever they want in Syria as long as the IAF doesn't bomb Russian troops in Syria.

It's the most brazen display of realpolitik I've seen in my lifetime.

FYI, the second most brazen display of realpolitik I've seen in my life is the "we didn't bomb the Iranian embassy!" cope by the Israelis. Um, you bombed a building right NEXT to it. That's effectively defacto bombing it. Do you think anyone else would accept this excuse if it happened to their embassy?
View Quote


Were you hot boxing before your "hot take"?
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 7:52:34 PM EDT
[#23]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Ike838:



There was a link a few pages back that showed Iranian missile launchers already  lining up already for the upcoming parade celebrating Army Day or whatever on the 18th in downtown Tehran.
Hitting that parade would be priceless.
View Quote View All Quotes
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Originally Posted By Ike838:
Originally Posted By Stillnothere:
They know Iran is all spun up now for a response. Drag it out a couple days, units will be tired and complacent and not as combat effective as they were initially, whereas Isarel can ensure that it's forces are well rested.



There was a link a few pages back that showed Iranian missile launchers already  lining up already for the upcoming parade celebrating Army Day or whatever on the 18th in downtown Tehran.
Hitting that parade would be priceless.
That would be an amazing display of "fuck you".
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 7:57:30 PM EDT
[#24]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By thesilvercord:


https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/327183/IMG_3078_jpeg-3189803.JPG
View Quote

Hell no the Israelis shouldn't share the info with anyone. As soon as Shits his pants In Chief finds out, someone will blab it.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 7:59:38 PM EDT
[#25]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By michigan66:

QFT.  Talking to each other and reopening embassies does not equal becoming friends.  Saudi Arabia was an obsession of Khomeini's long before he came to power in Iran.  Since 1979, Iranians sponsored groups have rioted in Mecca--at least 400 dead, killed Saudis and Americans in terror attacks inside the kingdom, sponsored Shia militant groups in Saudi Arabia and allies like Bahrain, and attacked Saudi oil infrastructure and cities.  Iranian clerics see Saudi guardianship of Mecca and Medina as disgraceful.

For their part, Saudi financed pamphlets condemning the Shia sect have caused violent attacks throughout the Muslim world, causing at least 4K dead in Pakistan alone.  They also provide facilities used by us, The Great Satan, to project power in the Greater Middle East.

This history did not disappear in 2023.
View Quote
One could say the same things about the Abraham Accords, which many have described as the Trump Administration just bribing the Saudis to make nice with the Jews.  

The idea that Saudi Arabia would be anything more than an ally of convenience to Israel is just as ridiculous.  They were willing to shoot down incoming drones and missiles that crossed into their airspace probably as a statement to Iran and a sop to the US, but I doubt they will do much more than that to help Israel no matter how much Biden begs them to.

The Saudis are probably going to play both sides as long as they can in order to maximize the benefit to themselves.  Call it the "Turkey Strategy".
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 8:03:00 PM EDT
[#26]
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Originally Posted By thesilvercord:


https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/327183/IMG_3078_jpeg-3189803.JPG
View Quote
I call BS on that.  This is the Biden Administration trying to wash its hands of the whole matter.

I can see the Israelis not explicitly sharing plans with the US, but there's no way our intel and satellites won't know when Israel will be readying a launch.  Especially if the Israelis are expecting us to help defend against an Iranian counterstrike like we did last time.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 8:05:05 PM EDT
[#27]
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Originally Posted By thesilvercord:


https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/327183/IMG_3078_jpeg-3189803.JPG
View Quote



Yes..don't share your information with the US, they are a bigger enemy to you than Iran is...Biden is a commie POS...!!!!
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 8:11:39 PM EDT
[#28]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Mach:


Every hour they wait decouples their response from the drone and missile attack.

At this point, to much of the world, it will look like Iran responded to an Israeli attack in Syria and if Israel attacks inside Iran, it will be a new series of aggression with Israel initiating the aggression.

How long are they going to wait?
View Quote
Agree completely, although I suspect that the leadership in Israel isn't trying to win a popularity contest.

The world has been pretty clear on their position regarding Israel for a long time...and as far as I'm concerned, Israel has nothing at all to lose in detrotong iran. The far east iignores Israel, the Middle East hates them, and the west tolerates them.

Frankly, I'd love for them to make a statement in their response. A big statement. Iran has threatened Israel for generations. I think Israel has every right and duty to eliminate that threat.  
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 8:18:53 PM EDT
[#29]
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Originally Posted By 50cal:

Hell no the Israelis shouldn't share the info with anyone. As soon as Shits his pants In Chief finds out, someone will blab it.
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Originally Posted By 50cal:
Originally Posted By thesilvercord:


https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/327183/IMG_3078_jpeg-3189803.JPG

Hell no the Israelis shouldn't share the info with anyone. As soon as Shits his pants In Chief finds out, someone will blab it.



Exactly.  Too much information being shared etc to win an advantage.  Why project your moves to your enemy???
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 8:20:55 PM EDT
[#30]
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Originally Posted By jeepnstein:
That would be an amazing display of "fuck you".
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Originally Posted By jeepnstein:
Originally Posted By Ike838:
Originally Posted By Stillnothere:
They know Iran is all spun up now for a response. Drag it out a couple days, units will be tired and complacent and not as combat effective as they were initially, whereas Isarel can ensure that it's forces are well rested.



There was a link a few pages back that showed Iranian missile launchers already  lining up already for the upcoming parade celebrating Army Day or whatever on the 18th in downtown Tehran.
Hitting that parade would be priceless.
That would be an amazing display of "fuck you".

Or would it be taking the bait?
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 8:30:32 PM EDT
[#31]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By thesilvercord:


https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/327183/IMG_3078_jpeg-3189803.JPG
View Quote



If I was Israel I wouldn’t trust the US either

We would probably tip off Iran
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 8:34:51 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Sierra5] [#32]
Knock off the insults, last warning ~Sierra5
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 8:39:04 PM EDT
[#33]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By crwdplsr:



If I was Israel I wouldn't trust the US either

We would probably tip off Iran
View Quote
Israel had to call off a strike during the Obama admin because of them telling Iran shit.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 8:42:58 PM EDT
[#34]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By MKSheppard:
Here's my hot take:

The fact that we've got craters and damage within an Israeli Airbase in the Negev is a major item in itself.

I'm not going to get into "the weeds" regarding Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD), but rather focus on what Iran just demonstrated:

Iran just demonstrated that despite heavy GPS jamming (planes were warping hundreds of miles away on flight tracker) they were able to get pretty good accuracy levels with mass produced weapons capable of being handled by the semi-bog standard IRGC officer/enlisted.

This is pretty significant, because it's a capability equal to what the IAF had in 1982 -- the ability to make a long range (1000 mile / 1600 km) strike against a heavily defended target and place payload(s) on the target.
View Quote


If the claim is correct that they had a 99% success rate in shooting down the incoming, that is a super low percentage for success.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 8:45:56 PM EDT
[#35]
Israel needs to use bunker bombs and take out Irans nuclear capability, not bomb other Countries.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 8:48:02 PM EDT
[#36]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Ike838:



There was a link a few pages back that showed Iranian missile launchers already  lining up already for the upcoming parade celebrating Army Day or whatever on the 18th in downtown Tehran.
Hitting that parade would be priceless.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Ike838:
Originally Posted By Stillnothere:
They know Iran is all spun up now for a response. Drag it out a couple days, units will be tired and complacent and not as combat effective as they were initially, whereas Isarel can ensure that it's forces are well rested.



There was a link a few pages back that showed Iranian missile launchers already  lining up already for the upcoming parade celebrating Army Day or whatever on the 18th in downtown Tehran.
Hitting that parade would be priceless.


Perfect target for a Jericho 3 strike
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 8:50:40 PM EDT
[Last Edit: missychapo] [#37]
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Originally Posted By NukeFromOrbit:


Israel has the Shin Bet.
View Quote

 
Most Lebanese people hate Hezbolass terrorists, they've taken the nation hostage..

Millions of Iranians will gladly share the location of the IRGC terrorists too. The Iranian islamists have killed more Iranians than all of their foreign terrorist attacks worldwide combined.

Israel has a major advantage there. They are fighting an ideology which no sane person can accept.  There's no shortage of people who support Israel's attack on the terrorists covertly and overtly.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 8:51:24 PM EDT
[#38]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By crwdplsr:



If I was Israel I wouldn’t trust the US either

We would probably tip off Iran
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Valerie Jarrett probably has the mullahs on speed dial on a satellite phone.

Link Posted: 4/16/2024 8:51:51 PM EDT
[Last Edit: THOT_Vaccine] [#39]
I bet you every Iranian embassy from Albania to Zambia is utterly devoid of IRGC this evening  

The recent missileing is quite out of character for them. Their natural habitat is hiding under a rock.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 8:55:20 PM EDT
[#40]
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 8:57:25 PM EDT
[#41]
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Originally Posted By crwdplsr:
If I was Israel I wouldn’t trust the US either

We would probably tip off Iran
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maybe give  FJB some intentional misinformation that helps sets the stage?  take advantage of the leak?  
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:04:13 PM EDT
[#42]
For the folks that are complaining that Israel hasn't retaliated already, don't forget that their response following 10/7 wasn't immediate, either.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:07:07 PM EDT
[#43]
It's hard to follow this long of a thread but would this recap be reasonably accurate?

1. israel takes out some iranian officials who are out of iran.
2. Iran responds by striking israel with 300-400 drones/missiles/etc which is mostly ineffective.
3. israel basically vows revenge but then goes on to attack 3rd parties instead of iran its self?

Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:07:55 PM EDT
[#44]
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Originally Posted By Dave_Markowitz:
For the folks that are complaining that Israel hasn't retaliated already, don't forget that their response following 10/7 wasn't immediate, either.
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True. It does seem like the moment to act is fading away, but in the big thread there was a long debate about whether they would go into Gaza very similar to this thread. Does feel like dejavu.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:14:54 PM EDT
[#45]
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Originally Posted By Elijah1:



Good Potato would probably give Iran a heads up.
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No way they can trust the Biden administration.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:17:53 PM EDT
[#46]
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Originally Posted By GarandM1:
One could say the same things about the Abraham Accords, which many have described as the Trump Administration just bribing the Saudis to make nice with the Jews.  

The idea that Saudi Arabia would be anything more than an ally of convenience to Israel is just as ridiculous.  They were willing to shoot down incoming drones and missiles that crossed into their airspace probably as a statement to Iran and a sop to the US, but I doubt they will do much more than that to help Israel no matter how much Biden begs them to.

The Saudis are probably going to play both sides as long as they can in order to maximize the benefit to themselves.  Call it the "Turkey Strategy".
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Uh, it's the US that's playing both sides. SA knows Iran and realizes they need to side with Israel.

Biden doesn't have any pull with SA. He blew that right off. SA aided Israel because of the Iranian threat. Prior to the Abraham Accords, Obama inadvertently pushed SA and Israel together by coddling Iran. Biden has continued that policy.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:17:56 PM EDT
[#47]
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Originally Posted By Bottle:

True. It does seem like the moment to act is fading away, but in the big thread there was a long debate about whether they would go into Gaza very similar to this thread. Does feel like dejavu.
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There is the reality that the Israeli government is still divided on the details of a respon se.  Most of the left-wing unity government cabinet members were never fond of Netanyahu  anyway and in light of recent protests against the war in Israel  this might be their way of sabotaging him.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:18:34 PM EDT
[#48]
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Originally Posted By Dave_Markowitz:
For the folks that are complaining that Israel hasn't retaliated already, don't forget that their response following 10/7 wasn't immediate, either.
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The Israeli's can do whatever they want. But they can't really do much to Iran at the end of the day. Because anything they do, they do on their own.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:25:36 PM EDT
[#49]
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Originally Posted By Piratepast40:

Are you chewing that shit too?
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Originally Posted By Piratepast40:
Originally Posted By MKSheppard:
Here's my hot take:

The fact that we've got craters and damage within an Israeli Airbase in the Negev is a major item in itself.

I'm not going to get into "the weeds" regarding Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD), but rather focus on what Iran just demonstrated:

Iran just demonstrated that despite heavy GPS jamming (planes were warping hundreds of miles away on flight tracker) they were able to get pretty good accuracy levels with mass produced weapons capable of being handled by the semi-bog standard IRGC officer/enlisted.

This is pretty significant, because it's a capability equal to what the IAF had in 1982 -- the ability to make a long range (1000 mile / 1600 km) strike against a heavily defended target and place payload(s) on the target.

Operation Babylon in 1981 was a 700 mile (1,130~ km) strike that required extremely high proficiency -- the IAF used unguided Mk 84 2000 lb bombs to strike the reactor -- plus advanced technology (8 x F-16A plus 6 x F-15As).

That's really hard to achieve with "conventional" weapons for a second/third world nation -- because the Air Force(s) of those nations are always hotbeds of hotheaded young officers, and coups always start off with the Presidental Palace being bombed by jet aircraft -- so the skill level/training of those Air Forces were retarded as a way to protect the Regime(s).

Plus of course; until now, such approaches were possible, but highly attritional, unless you had absolute air supremacy like the USAF can achieve -- i.e. you can bomb the heavily defended target 700+ miles away, but you're going to lose a good fraction of your highly trained pilot force and their very expensive jets.

In both cases -- Pilots and Jets -- losses will take years to recover from (if at all).

Well now; the shoe is on the other foot; with Israel being bombed from long range by another state, instead of Israel being the one doing the bombing.

That's what's driving this massive temper tantrum by the Israeli leadership (both political and military) -- because they've been stunted in their political thinking for so long as they've escaped/never had to face consequences for their actions in the Middle East until now.

Essentially, they're upset over the fact that "Iran can do to us what we've been doing to the entire middle east since about 1956."

You only need to look at what Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant told SecDef Austin per news reports:

"Israel won't accept an equation in which Iran responds with a direct attack every time Israel strikes targets in Syria, Gallant added."

Crudely put, Iran basically put Israel on notice:

"Hey, you want to keep teabagging Syria? Say hello to my little friend(s)."

This is apparently unacceptable to the Israeli politico-defense establishment.

https://media.tenor.com/7vqtIP8KVoAAAAAi/chudjak-poljak.gif
Israeli establishment reacting

For some strange reason they have a hard on for Syria -- recall that in Winter 2022, Israel denied SPIKE ATGM export licenses to the US, Germany and the Baltic States -- we were asking to send them to Ukraine to stop the Russian armored columns -- and Israel said no.

Basically, Israel did that to preserve freedom of manuver in Syria -- IOW to buy complicity from the Russians in the Russians letting the IAF do whatever they want in Syria as long as the IAF doesn't bomb Russian troops in Syria.

It's the most brazen display of realpolitik I've seen in my lifetime.

FYI, the second most brazen display of realpolitik I've seen in my life is the "we didn't bomb the Iranian embassy!" cope by the Israelis. Um, you bombed a building right NEXT to it. That's effectively defacto bombing it. Do you think anyone else would accept this excuse if it happened to their embassy?

Are you chewing that shit too?

Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:29:32 PM EDT
[#50]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By TheLookingGlass:
It's hard to follow this long of a thread but would this recap be reasonably accurate?

1. israel takes out some iranian officials who are out of iran.
2. Iran responds by striking israel with 300-400 drones/missiles/etc which is mostly ineffective.
3. israel basically vows revenge but then goes on to attack 3rd parties instead of iran its self?

View Quote

You missed a couple of items before israel takes out some Iranian officials.

A. Iran funds terrorists groups on the border of Israel. Those terrorists groups have stated goals to kill Jews and to destroy the Israeli state.
B. Those terrorists groups continually attack Israel.
C. Iran continues to fund said terrorist groups.
D. One terrorist group funded and armed heavily by Iran slips across the border murders, rapes, tortures, and kidnaps thousands of Jewish civilians.

Now your list comes in to play.
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