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Posted: 3/9/2024 1:50:42 AM EDT
[#1]
Holy Hell! I got a lot of catching up to do!!! LOL
Thank you all for your kind participation  The following is a video produced by France 24 from their "The Reporters" series. It's pretty good, but there's the usual Frenchness in bits. For example, here's a line from their description beneath the video player: Long dominated by the United States, the Asia-Pacific region is grappling with an increasingly assertive China. Anyway, here's the video: Asia-Pacific region: A new cold war brewing Youtube link if you want to go there instead:  China seas: A new Cold War brewing? • FRANCE 24 English There are a couple of points I would personally take issue with, but I can't debate the producers. Overall it's a very good report. |
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Posted: 3/9/2024 2:02:46 AM EDT
[#2]
A quick score card!
Taiwan tracks 9 Chinese military aircraft, 5 naval ships around nation So far this month, Taiwan has tracked Chinese military aircraft 89 times and naval vessels 45 times.  Attached FileSomething else that is out of place for the Taiwan News is this story: China ramps up gray-zone tactics against Taiwan Everyone of the "score card" stories has this "boiler plate" language using today's post as the example: So far this month, Taiwan has tracked Chinese military aircraft 89 times and naval vessels 45 times. Since September 2020, China has increased its use of gray zone tactics by incrementally increasing the number of military aircraft and naval ships operating around Taiwan. Gray zone tactics are defined as "an effort or series of efforts beyond steady-state deterrence and assurance that attempts to achieve one's security objectives without resort to direct and sizable use of force." This is the first time that I've seen an entire article devoted to Gray Zone tactics. It's a short article, but it has a number of highlights: The report noted that Beijing has tried to "increase burdens of our naval and air forces and to obscure the existence" of the Taiwan Strait median line. The MND also said China has used research and militia ships to "disguise military activities with civilians," per Reuters. In response to the Chinese threats, the MND is moving to "preserve" its troops in the event of a conflict. This will be done by bolstering the resilience of its infrastructure and running exercises to ensure Taiwanese forces last in a protracted war, in addition to stockpiling weapons and fuel, Reuters noted. The ministry said that during a conflict, China would try to invade Taiwan quickly to prevent outside forces like the U.S. from intervening. The MND said they are working to diversify command systems and introduce more mobile and long-range weapons, in addition to AI, while increasing "connections" with allies, including the United States, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, Taiwan's Air Force Command on Tuesday (March 5) said it is resuming late-night flight training to enhance the nighttime combat capabilities of pilots and to improve tactical experience. |
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Posted: 3/9/2024 2:10:56 AM EDT
[#3]
Along the lines of the above, here's a very interesting article, again from the Taiwan News"
Taiwan commanders authorized to use force against intruding enemy military aircraft, vessels Taiwan News' synopsis of their article: Ministry of National Defense clarifies updated definition of 'first strike' TAIPEI (Taiwan News) Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) clarified its definition of "first strike," saying it considered any Chinese military asset crossing into Taiwan's territorial borders as an act of aggression. The MND said in a press release Friday (March 8) that if enemy aircraft or vessels intruded into Taiwan's airspace or waters, then commanders are authorized to take appropriate measures to maintain national defense security when all other non-peaceful means fail. When a country is subjected to armed attacks from external sources, it has the inherent right to use force for self-defense, the ministry said. Minister of National Defense Chiu Kuo-cheng ( ) said that this definition was updated shortly after former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan when China held live-fire military drills around the nation to express its dissatisfaction. Here's the remainder of the article: The Taiwan Strait is "on the brink" of a heightened level of alert, Chiu said at a Foreign and National Defense Committee session on Thursday (March 7). The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has ramped up the frequency of its air and naval operations. He said PLA activities are now creeping closer to Taiwan and have slowly entered "gray areas" from the north and south. To deter China from escalating tensions in the strait, U.S. senators introduced a bill on Tuesday (March 5) requiring the U.S. Department of the Treasury to terminate the United States-People's Republic of China Income Tax Convention if Beijing attacks Taiwan. |
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Posted: 3/9/2024 2:20:06 AM EDT
[#4]
Last story of tonight:
Taiwan representative reaffirms Taiwan's sovereignty in Switzerland or Taiwan makes the Case: TAIPEI (Taiwan News) Taiwan Representative to Switzerland David W. F. Huang ( ) reaffirmed Taiwan's sovereignty in a keynote speech on Thursday (March 7) in Switzerland. Swiss think tank Foraus invited Huang to speak at the University of Zurich, attracting nearly 200 attendees, per CNA. Huang summarized recent events in the Taiwan Strait, such as China's adjustment of the M503 flight path. Continuing: "China has never ruled Taiwan and lacks a legal basis for sovereignty over Taiwan under international law," he said. Huang added that recent Chinese interventions in Taiwan's elections, unilateral changes to the M503 flight route, and the incident involving Chinese speedboats near Kinmen are examples of China's gray-zone warfare tactics. Regarding China's aggressive actions in the disputed waters of the South China Sea, Huang said the recent collision between Chinese and Philippine coast guard ships and China's regular patrols around Kinmen are examples of China's anti-access and area denial strategy. These actions aim to breach the defense of the United States' First Island Chain in the Pacific, undermine the rules-based international order, and reveal China's expansionist ambitions, he said. Huang stressed that Taiwan owns Taiping Island and will continue to safeguard its interest in the South China Sea. However, Taiwan is willing to set aside disputes and conduct multilateral talks to promote regional peace and prosperity, Huang added. |
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Posted: 3/9/2024 2:26:28 AM EDT
[#5]
Shit! Let me do one more as it's another follow-up to the PRC payment system.
The PRC is changing the rules again!!! The reforms of three weeks ago are being reformed: China's payment vow 'positive step' for visitors, foreign investment, but economy and security concerns remain The article puts lipstick on the pig and is very vague. The issuess are from the everyday people Chinese perspective, they're still having difficulties participating in the system, so they can't service anyone including the "foreigners." From the foreign business perspective, they're just seeing this as the PRC saying they'll fix this payment problem while ignoring more core issues of doing business in China. Honestly, Fidel Castro handled this type of thing much better. |
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Posted: 3/9/2024 2:35:26 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202403/1308188.shtml https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_0535_jpeg-3150242.JPG Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202403/1308188.shtml https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_0535_jpeg-3150242.JPG The moderate figure reflects China's reasonable, restrained and steady steps in national defense development, which takes factors including military modernization, external security environments and economic development into account, experts said. Many countries have hiked their military expenditures in recent years, Zhang said, citing the aggressive defense spending hike by countries like the US and Japan. According to a Reuters report, US President Joe Biden in December 2023 reportedly authorized a record $886 billion annual military spending for fiscal 2024, nearly four times China's figure. Japan's Cabinet in December 2023 approved a hefty 16 percent increase in military spending in 2024, in addition to easing its postwar ban on lethal weapons exports, underscoring a shift away from the country's self-defense-only principle, AP reported. Zhang continued to note that, compared with other major military powers like the US, China's defense expenditure in share of its GDP is also at a low level. In recent years, China's defense spending has generally accounted only about 1.3 percent of the country's GDP, while according to publicly available data, this figure for the US is about 3.5 percent, and the guideline figure for NATO members is 2 percent. Now, are they spending the inflated dollars that the US is spending? No, but they are spending a lot of money. I think this is my favorite part of the propaganda message: CHINA / MILITARY China raises defense budget by 7.2% for 2024, 'conducive to peace, stability' By Liu Xuanzun Published: Mar 05, 2024 10:26 AM Updated: Mar 05, 2024 10:32 AM Graphic: Global Times Graphic: Global Times China on Tuesday announced a defense budget draft for 2024 worth 1.66554 trillion yuan ($231.36 billion), an increase of 7.2 percent from the previous year. The moderate figure reflects China's reasonable, restrained and steady steps in national defense development, which takes factors including military modernization, external security environments and economic development into account, experts said. The proposed defense budget was released in a draft budget report issued at the opening of the second session of the 14th National People's Congress (NPC), the country's top legislature, on Tuesday. China's defense budget has maintained single-digit growth for nine consecutive years since 2016. The growth rate was also set at 7.2 percent in 2023, while stably moved between six and eight percent in recent years. Zhang Junshe, a Chinese military expert, told the Global Times that China's defense expenditure has been stable in recent years, and the consecutive single-digit growth showed that the increase is moderate and reasonable. Many countries have hiked their military expenditures in recent years, Zhang said, citing the aggressive defense spending hike by countries like the US and Japan. According to a Reuters report, US President Joe Biden in December 2023 reportedly authorized a record $886 billion annual military spending for fiscal 2024, nearly four times China's figure. Japan's Cabinet in December 2023 approved a hefty 16 percent increase in military spending in 2024, in addition to easing its postwar ban on lethal weapons exports, underscoring a shift away from the country's self-defense-only principle, AP reported. Zhang continued to note that, compared with other major military powers like the US, China's defense expenditure in share of its GDP is also at a low level. In recent years, China's defense spending has generally accounted only about 1.3 percent of the country's GDP, while according to publicly available data, this figure for the US is about 3.5 percent, and the guideline figure for NATO members is 2 percent. China can easily raise its military expenditure more radically thanks to the country's comprehensive development, and the fact that it is not doing so reflects the restraint in the setting of defense budget, analysts said. Two J-20 stealth fighter jets attached to an aviation brigade of the PLA Air Force take off for a flight training exercise in early February of 2024. (eng.chinamil.com.cn/Photo by Liu Weipeng) Two J-20 stealth fighter jets attached to an aviation brigade of the PLA Air Force take off for a flight training exercise in early February of 2024. (eng.chinamil.com.cn/Photo by Liu Weipeng) From a policy perspective, China's national defense strategy is defensive in nature, China will not participate in an arms race with any country, and China takes a path of peaceful development, which is different from the approaches of some Western countries, particularly the US that pursues global hegemony, Zhang said. Western media often misinterpret and smear China's defense budget, and these hypes are of double standards and bear malicious intentions, Zhang said. Lou Qinjian, the spokesperson for the second session of the 14th NPC, said at a press conference on Monday that in recent years, to safeguard national sovereignty, security and development interests, to meet the needs of military transformation with Chinese characteristics, and to better fulfill China's international responsibilities and obligations as a major country, China has maintained reasonable and steady growth of its defense spending consistent with its sound and steady economic and social development, in a move to promote synchronized growth of defense capability and economic strength. Lou stressed that, compared with major military powers such as the US, China's defense spending is quite low, whether as a percentage of GDP, or in terms of per capita and per-serviceperson. China is committed to a path of peaceful development, stands ready to share development opportunities with other countries and foster a new type of international relations featuring mutual respect, fairness and justice, and win-win cooperation, build a community with a shared future for mankind, and make new contributions to the noble cause of peace and development, the spokesperson said. |
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Posted: 3/9/2024 2:55:20 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Alacran: Erik Prince predicts that China will make a move on Taiwan in the next several months with the window of opportunity beginning in late April, early May.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6zICGND2nsI still remember in the late '70s (when I was in High School) that the momentum was definetly on the side of the Soviets. Then, those old ladies that ran things fucked up and went South instead of West. The USSR still would exist if they went into a bloody high casualty War against the West. Many of us sense that the PRC is going to make a move; don't know when; don't know where. But, the momentum is on their side as everyone else is playing "catch-up." My best guess is that just like the old ladies running the Soviet Union, the old ladies running the PRC will fuck it up and lose in the end. Historically, Socialists have only been able to kill tens of millions of people that they already control. Outside of their "little world," they tend to fail against people they don't control more often than not. Sure, they kill lots of people, but they end up losing because they (leadership) find themselves not in control. Either emotionally or intellectually, they can't over come that self-imposed barrier because losing to a group of people they don't control, or even not achieving publically stated objectives, is far too risky and the consequences far too great as those consequences will show up in the population they do control; and now Leadership will assume they have to divert resources from the War effort to impose further controls over the population. As Marxists love circular logic, here it is laid out before them. In the end, they will lose, logically. But, a lot of people have to die first before we get to that point. |
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Posted: 3/9/2024 3:14:43 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Banditman: I never knew about this island that is part of Taiwan https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xotMoV65DLEIt's really starting to chap my hide. One says it, so they all take it as "truth" instead of looking it up!! Here's a website that is popular based on a cursory internet search: travelmath - as seen on YAHOO! Travel Here's a screen shot from Kiribati to Hawaii:  Attached FileHere's a screen shot of Kiribati to Australia:  Attached FileSo, who's closer and why do they (reporters in general) keep saying it Hawaii when it's demonstably incorrect? (Bear in mind that these distances are flying distances using the curvature of the Earth for the closest distance possible. Otherwise, the travel from Hawaii to Kiribati passes through a great many horizons!!! Obviously, there's a value to telling a lie even one that can be easily proven as a lie. Sure, reporters are fucking idiots, but there not huge fucking idiots, so there is a value to them to tell the story in this manner. In other words, "The Truth" is in their way, in this instance, otherwise, they'd tell the truth. So, what do they get out of the story? They parrot the PRC line which is the US has no business interfering with the PRC and the South Pacific region, and then they keep bringing up how close the United States is geographically is to this region. Last night's post of the France 24 video, the blurb begins with the phrase, "Long dominated by the United States...." Those are the opening words. I find it very interesting that not since the days of the Spanish-American War and "yellow-journalism" have the Press or Journalism have been advocating for "action." |
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Posted: 3/9/2024 3:50:13 PM EDT
[#9]
Back to the PRC vs Philippines conflict, and thanks to the South China Morning Post for their efficient propaganda, we have the PRC side of the story:
South China Sea: Beijing poised for 'long game' with Manila over shoal dispute to avoid drawing in US, analysts say I would say, that the actual plan is to create disputes that the US will not involve itself in as it's below some calculated threshold point, but no matter, let's here from the PRC mouthpiece: China and the Philippines will remain at loggerheads over the disputed South China Sea as both sides double down on their positions in the strategically important waterway, observers have said. But they also expect China to play the long game, to wear out Manila as Beijing seeks to avoid a wider regional conflict that might draw in the US, a Philippine treaty ally. Beijing has warned against escalations in the South China Sea, where a collision between Chinese and Philippine coastguard vessels has triggered fears that any misstep could spark a wider crisis. China will "legitimately defend" its rights in the South China Sea, Foreign Minister Wang Yi told a press conference on the sidelines of the annual National People's Congress legislative meetings on Thursday. "Abusing good faith should not be allowed. Distorting maritime laws cannot be accepted in the face of deliberate infringements," he said. "We will take justified actions to defend our rights in accordance with the law in face of unwarranted provocation; we will respond with prompt and legitimate countermeasures." He also took a swipe at the Philippines and the United States for the spike in tensions over maritime disputes. "We also urge certain countries outside the region not to make provocations, pick sides or stir up troubles and problems in the South China Sea," Wang said. As we covered earlier in this thread, the PRC already lost the only adjudication trial as to what international law actually contains, the PRC claim is pure fantasy, but there hasn't been any pushback from the international press about it, so here we are. There were another two collisions just this week complete with PRC water cannons trying to flood below decks of the Philippine vessels in an attempt to have these vessels take on enough water that they begin to sink and then move away from the area leaving the Chinese Coast Guard in control of the area. South China Sea collision The US on Wednesday reiterated its commitment to defend the Philippines in case of any armed attacks in the South China Sea. This came a day after Manila accused the Chinese coastguard of causing two collisions and firing a water cannon at Philippine boats as they carried out a resupply mission near the Second Thomas Shoal. The disputed reef in the South China Sea has been occupied by a Philippine garrison stationed aboard a grounded landing ship since 1999. Manila, which said four Filipino crew members were injured in the high-seas stand-off, summoned a Chinese diplomat in protest on Tuesday. Beijing, meanwhile, claimed that the measures it took were "professional and standard" and that the Philippines should be held responsible for the "run-in". Here's more of the article, and then we'll move to the Philippine side of things: Chen Xiangmiao, an associate researcher with the National Institute for South China Sea Studies in China's Hainan province, said the recent incidents were "very serious" but avoiding an escalation would be Beijing's priority. "There's a dilemma for China as its diplomatic approach fails to dissuade the Philippines, and it does not want the confrontations to further escalate," he said. "If the Philippines manages to build a permanent structure in the Second Thomas Shoal, or if it takes control of the [also disputed] Scarborough Shoal that would be a scenario which would get out of hand for everyone." The story also has a very interesting quote (I'm trying to investigate this one more, but it's too juicy to not include): The Philippines is running out of ships for resupply missions to the Second Thomas Shoal, according to Vice-Admiral Alberto Carlos, chief of the Philippine military's Western Command, who said the vessels were either limited in capability or under repair. 'Gradually wearing out Manila's patience' Collin Koh, a maritime security researcher at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University, said Beijing's strategy would be to wear the Philippines out. "This is what I believe till now to be Beijing's strategy to play the long game, gradually wearing out Manila's patience and ability to conduct these resupply runs and eventually compelling the latter to come to PRC terms," Koh wrote on X, formerly Twitter, using the acronym for China's formal name the People's Republic of China. But while Beijing and Manila both refuse to back down, Chen said whether the US would wade in remained in question. The US has repeatedly reassured the Philippines on their "ironclad" defence partnership, but it remained unclear under what circumstances it would come to Manila's aid, Chen said, especially as US and Chinese officials have consistently stressed the importance of preventing any conflict between the rival powers. He said one option was for Beijing and Manila to reaffirm "certain tactical agreements" reached under Marcos' predecessor Rodrigo Duterte. Soon after Duterte took office in 2016, Beijing allowed resupply missions for humanitarian supplies to the Second Thomas Shoal. Philippine fishermen were also able to return to the Scarborough Shoal a rich fishing ground in the middle of the South China Sea. Beijing took control of the shoal, which it calls Huangyan Island, after an intense stand-off with the Philippines in 2012. "[A reaffirmation] is the best and most likely scenario," Chen said. "Otherwise confrontations will continue because Beijing is unlikely to compromise." |
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Posted: 3/9/2024 3:55:53 PM EDT
[#10]
Here's the Philippine side of this last week's incident:
Philippines says ship damaged in South China Sea incident with Chinese boat The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) has said one of its boats suffered "minor structural damage" as Chinese ships tried to block a resupply mission in the South China Sea, in the latest confrontation in the disputed waters. Jay Tarriela, the PCG spokesperson, said the incident took place early on Tuesday morning near Second Thomas Shoal where a small group of sailors have been living on board the Sierra Madre warship since it was grounded nearly 25 years ago. He shared videos and images on X showing a Chinese ship cutting across the bow of the Philippine resupply ship and the crew rushing to drop a buoy between the vessels. The PCG ships were accompanying the resupply boats. "The PCG vessels faced dangerous maneuvers and blocking from Chinese Coast Guard vessels and Chinese Maritime Militia," Tarriela wrote on the social media platform, adding that the resupply mission was continuing. China's Coast Guard said it had taken "regulatory actions" against Philippine ships in the area, accusing them of entering the waters "illegally". Second Thomas Shoal, known as Anyungin Shoal by the Philippines and Ren'ai Jiao by China, lies about 200km (124 miles) from the western Philippine island of Palawan and more than 1,000km from China's southern Hainan Island. The Philippines is one of several Southeast Asian countries that claim parts of the South China Sea, while Beijing claims the waters almost in their entirety. In 2012, China seized control of Scarborough Shoal after a months-long standoff, and the Philippines took its case to the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, which found China's claims had no legal basis. Beijing has ignored the ruling. |
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Posted: 3/9/2024 4:17:38 PM EDT
[#11]
last stories for the day, again from the South China Morning Post, about PRC defense related matters. First one is a call by Xi for more R&D and further weapons development. Much of the report uses the typical language of bureaucrats who don't want to be associated with program failure, so we'll skip that and use what could be actual quotes from Xi:
China's Xi Jinping issues hi-tech military call in push for integrated armed forces Xi also heard briefing from PLA Navy officers, including one from the Southern Theatre Command, which oversees the South China Sea. Addressing the deputies, he said the military should "boldly innovate and explore new types of combat force models, and fully liberate and develop new quality combat powers". To create the "autonomous, self-reliant, open, and dynamic innovation environment" needed for the capacity building, the military must speed up the development of new combat forces, deepen the systemic reform of the national defence industry, improve the agile response and rapid transformation of advanced technology, and build an innovative supply chain that is "compatible with the development of emerging fields", he said. "You must take on the mission, spearhead reform and innovation, and improve our strategic capabilities in emerging fields in a comprehensive manner," he told the deputies. Hu Bo, director of the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative, said the comments pointed to the PLA's plan to build joint force capacity. "Highlighting the adoption of these emerging technologies in the military is done with joint operations in mind," Hu said. In recent years, Xi called for improving the overall "joint" nature of the PLA, involving better coordination of all services and multi-domains such as space, cyber, and electronic warfare, backed up by the PLA Strategic Support Force. In a report on Friday, military mouthpiece The PLA Daily said establishing a strategic ability in emerging fields" such as space, cyberspace and artificial intelligence would have to be based on coordinated planning and "breakthroughs in key areas". Hu said Xi's special mention of the "maritime military struggle" showed "the seas, including the East and South China seas, as well as the Taiwan Strait, are the major struggle directions of the PLA". Chinese general calls for crackdown on 'fake combat capabilities' in the military A top Chinese general has vowed to crack down on what he called "fake combat capabilities" in the military, which experts say is likely related to weapons procurement the focus of corruption investigations. General He Weidong, the second-ranked vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission, made the remarks during a discussion with a People's Liberation Army delegation on Tuesday, according to minutes from the meeting made available to media. The discussion was part of the ongoing "two sessions" gathering of China's legislature and top political advisory body in Beijing. Analysts say the message from He China's No 3 military official was brief and ambiguous, but could relate to the procurement of flawed equipment, and also deception among the ranks during training. James Char, a research fellow with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at the Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said He's remarks could be to do with "the recent expos s on procurement violations within the PLA". Char said they would have implications on the quality of military hardware "and the PLA's performance on an actual battlefield". Fu Qianshao, a former equipment expert with the PLA, said He appeared to be partly referring to the procurement of flawed weapons, which Fu also noted could affect the military's combat capabilities. "The weapons and equipment should reach the technical standards," Fu said. "So counterfeiting will surely have an impact on how they function." "Fake combat capabilities" could also refer to "fake" drills that do not reach the standards required, such as "night exercises" being conducted around sunset something military mouthpiece PLA Daily has reported on in recent years. The PLA is meanwhile under pressure from Beijing to boost combat readiness, with President Xi Jinping calling for the military to step up "real combat" exercises and training to prepare for "stormy seas" ahead at a time when geopolitical tensions are rising and rivalry with the US is heating up. Fu, the former PLA equipment specialist, said He's comments also hinted at the problems with training, and that it "should be conducted according to the actual combat requirements it must not become a show".  "The Power of China": China's PLA army enlists pop-style music video to recruit young soldiers |
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Posted: 3/9/2024 4:20:37 PM EDT
[#12]
China has openly stated that their hard date to forcibly “reunite” Taiwan with the mainland is within the next 5 years. How feasible is that given their setbacks in modernization of their ground forces and scandals like water in missile fuel tanks?
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Posted: 3/9/2024 6:57:26 PM EDT
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea]
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AsaphsArrows: China has openly stated that their hard date to forcibly “reunite” Taiwan with the mainland is within the next 5 years. How feasible is that given their setbacks in modernization of their ground forces and scandals like water in missile fuel tanks? Don’t assume any info we think we have on internal PLA activities is a certain. We have low to no HUMINT intelligence there. The window will not go away or change or stop. It remains every May and October of each year thru 2030 but most especially thru 2027 Hopes and dreams won’t make a war go away https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/china-seems-destined-sink-us-navy-aircraft-carrier-209882  Attached File Attached File |
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Posted: 3/9/2024 7:02:02 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By zoinks: last stories for the day, again from the South China Morning Post, about PRC defense related matters. First one is a call by Xi for more R&D and further weapons development. Much of the report uses the typical language of bureaucrats who don't want to be associated with program failure, so we'll skip that and use what could be actual quotes from Xi: China's Xi Jinping issues hi-tech military call in push for integrated armed forces Now for the supplementry commentary always necessary to explain what the fearless leader meant: What there wasn't this year was the call to prepare for immediate War. Last year and the year before that, there were plenty calls for such. I don't know why, but here's another interesting story and again from the SCMP: Chinese general calls for crackdown on 'fake combat capabilities' in the military (I have some articles bookmarked on what the Two Sessions are that I'll post soon.) And now for some bad news: Gentlemen, this means no more dance videos from the PLA in the foreseeable future. Here's one, and it's almost as gay as the original "Top Gun" hollywood extravaganza: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6Jd50j91_EThere's a "rap" one that's available, but that may be too much. The Chinese produced videos are always cringe. That being said SCMP is tied to Beijing now so I post its articles but am leery of their conclusions knowing Beijing is using that paper to spread how it wishes the English language speaking world to perceive China. |
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Posted: 3/9/2024 7:03:51 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By zoinks: Back to the PRC vs Philippines conflict, and thanks to the South China Morning Post for their efficient propaganda, we have the PRC side of the story: South China Sea: Beijing poised for 'long game' with Manila over shoal dispute to avoid drawing in US, analysts say I would say, that the actual plan is to create disputes that the US will not involve itself in as it's below some calculated threshold point, but no matter, let's here from the PRC mouthpiece: There you have it! The PRC is above reproach in this matter. Accusations to the contrary are false and will be met with "legitimate countermeasure." As we covered earlier in this thread, the PRC already lost the only adjudication trial as to what international law actually contains, the PRC claim is pure fantasy, but there hasn't been any pushback from the international press about it, so here we are. There were another two collisions just this week complete with PRC water cannons trying to flood below decks of the Philippine vessels in an attempt to have these vessels take on enough water that they begin to sink and then move away from the area leaving the Chinese Coast Guard in control of the area. Obviously, these latest incidents didn't cross any US threshold for action. Here's more of the article, and then we'll move to the Philippine side of things: This above is our warning!!! The story also has a very interesting quote (I'm trying to investigate this one more, but it's too juicy to not include): Now, here's the SCMP's go to guy outside of the PRC for PRC promelgated statements: And what is it that the PRC wants but need a third party to state it? It's this: Which means, "we'll let you fish in your waters until we decide not to let you fish in your waters." On a side note one thing that annoys me about Singapore and Singapore based people is they’re tied to China and often play both sides without ever pushing too far to piss off China. I don’t find them trustworthy |
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Posted: 3/9/2024 7:10:02 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By zoinks: This Global Times article is a lovely bit of propaganda, carmel! Nice find!! It really is some great and professional propaganda. And it's mostly true!!! We just don't know what the real spending on Defense is in the PRC. As has been stated before in this thread, the PLA owns large segments of PRC productive capability, selling products worldwide, as well as profits from illegal smuggling operations and what not. Now, are they spending the inflated dollars that the US is spending? No, but they are spending a lot of money. I think this is my favorite part of the propaganda message: "Win-Win cooperation", Gentlemen. That's what the CCP is all about!! Yep digging thru CCP mouthpieces to see what’s really happening is both tedious and entertaining but I notice patterns of topics they avoid or issues they promote but with a lot of bs. Despite that over time I can discern what China is up to overlapping Global Times, Xinhua or even SCMP news patterns against other info to look for matching data points that line up. |
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Posted: 3/9/2024 7:12:17 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By zoinks: Shit! Let me do one more as it's another follow-up to the PRC payment system. The PRC is changing the rules again!!! The reforms of three weeks ago are being reformed: China's payment vow 'positive step' for visitors, foreign investment, but economy and security concerns remain The article puts lipstick on the pig and is very vague. The issuess are from the everyday people Chinese perspective, they're still having difficulties participating in the system, so they can't service anyone including the "foreigners." From the foreign business perspective, they're just seeing this as the PRC saying they'll fix this payment problem while ignoring more core issues of doing business in China. Honestly, Fidel Castro handled this type of thing much better. Going on 30 years since I did business in China and it’s ridiculous how they keep on keeping on with this kind of stuff. Back when everyone thought China was a big future payout everyone but me overlooked this ridiculousness |
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Posted: 3/9/2024 7:23:28 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By zoinks: This Global Times article is a lovely bit of propaganda, carmel! Nice find!! It really is some great and professional propaganda. And it's mostly true!!! We just don't know what the real spending on Defense is in the PRC. As has been stated before in this thread, the PLA owns large segments of PRC productive capability, selling products worldwide, as well as profits from illegal smuggling operations and what not. Now, are they spending the inflated dollars that the US is spending? No, but they are spending a lot of money. I think this is my favorite part of the propaganda message: "Win-Win cooperation", Gentlemen. That's what the CCP is all about!! The Chinese military budget is $231 Billion as you point out. However, the US military spends $170 billion in R&D, much of which China steals or our idiot CEOs and traitors give them. That adds up. They also pay their military lower ranks much less. The Generals and admirals scam, blackmail, and steal way more. It is hard for a Chinese company to not work for the military and intelligence. A lot of money goes into the military sector under the table that we pretend doesn't exist. |
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Posted: 3/9/2024 11:44:00 PM EDT
[#19]
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Posted: 3/10/2024 10:27:53 AM EDT
[#20]
Sounds great on paper but I don’t see vision 2028 actually getting paid for so far nor enough Pacific allies rolling out welcome mats for it https://warriormaven.com/china/navy-details-weapons-tactics-needed-to-save-pacific
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Posted: 3/10/2024 11:36:56 AM EDT
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea]
[#21]
The author apparently is unaware of our submarine building and repair problems that echo our other naval shipbuilding issues but I would agree subs not carriers would be the tip of the spear during an attempt on Taiwan
Were inside a 3 to 5 year window and everyone is moving like molasses stuck in theoretical contemplative debates on strategy while procurement is in the rear view mirror and all the baby steps taking lately are nice but hardly meaningful in the quantities necessary or levels required - diplomatically as far as allies, etc. we’ll keep talking the talk long into China walking the walk all the while hoping that despite our deterrence has long failed somehow China will be too fucked up to actually do anything- to which I say hope is not a plan Our current DOD budget continues to run on a CR at a time GD has a bunch of threads every month wanting the US military disbanded out of fears a black lesbian army Ranger is going to kick off the civil war 2 for the WEF https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/china-seems-destined-sink-us-navy-aircraft-carrier-209882  Attached File Attached File |
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Posted: 3/10/2024 11:55:30 AM EDT
[#22]
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Posted: 3/10/2024 2:53:36 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: Sounds great on paper but I don’t see vision 2028 actually getting paid for so far nor enough Pacific allies rolling out welcome mats for it https://warriormaven.com/china/navy-details-weapons-tactics-needed-to-save-pacific https://thediplomat.com/2024/03/us-air-force-hunts-for-new-pacific-outposts-to-counter-china-threat/  Attached File Attached File |
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Posted: 3/10/2024 3:07:29 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By zoinks: Nice find, Code name: Skorpion! I still remember in the late '70s (when I was in High School) that the momentum was definetly on the side of the Soviets. Then, those old ladies that ran things fucked up and went South instead of West. The USSR still would exist if they went into a bloody high casualty War against the West. Many of us sense that the PRC is going to make a move; don't know when; don't know where. But, the momentum is on their side as everyone else is playing "catch-up." My best guess is that just like the old ladies running the Soviet Union, the old ladies running the PRC will fuck it up and lose in the end. Historically, Socialists have only been able to kill tens of millions of people that they already control. Outside of their "little world," they tend to fail against people they don't control more often than not. Sure, they kill lots of people, but they end up losing because they (leadership) find themselves not in control. Either emotionally or intellectually, they can't over come that self-imposed barrier because losing to a group of people they don't control, or even not achieving publically stated objectives, is far too risky and the consequences far too great as those consequences will show up in the population they do control; and now Leadership will assume they have to divert resources from the War effort to impose further controls over the population. As Marxists love circular logic, here it is laid out before them. In the end, they will lose, logically. But, a lot of people have to die first before we get to that point. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By zoinks: Originally Posted By Alacran: Erik Prince predicts that China will make a move on Taiwan in the next several months with the window of opportunity beginning in late April, early May. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6zICGND2nsI still remember in the late '70s (when I was in High School) that the momentum was definetly on the side of the Soviets. Then, those old ladies that ran things fucked up and went South instead of West. The USSR still would exist if they went into a bloody high casualty War against the West. Many of us sense that the PRC is going to make a move; don't know when; don't know where. But, the momentum is on their side as everyone else is playing "catch-up." My best guess is that just like the old ladies running the Soviet Union, the old ladies running the PRC will fuck it up and lose in the end. Historically, Socialists have only been able to kill tens of millions of people that they already control. Outside of their "little world," they tend to fail against people they don't control more often than not. Sure, they kill lots of people, but they end up losing because they (leadership) find themselves not in control. Either emotionally or intellectually, they can't over come that self-imposed barrier because losing to a group of people they don't control, or even not achieving publically stated objectives, is far too risky and the consequences far too great as those consequences will show up in the population they do control; and now Leadership will assume they have to divert resources from the War effort to impose further controls over the population. As Marxists love circular logic, here it is laid out before them. In the end, they will lose, logically. But, a lot of people have to die first before we get to that point. I can’t shake the feeling that both China and the US want this conflict to happen soon due to the economies & control potential within both countries. Yeah, I don’t trust anyone, anymore.  |
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Posted: 3/11/2024 1:36:04 AM EDT
[Last Edit: zoinks]
[#25]
Lot's to read up above! I'm digging it.
Let's do the "Two Sessions" in China as it's going on right now. First article is from al-jazeera as it covers things pretty well. Then, we're off to another SCMP article and two sections in that. I'm going to stay away from personalities and dramas. We just need to look at the structure and what goes on, as this event sets the road map for at least a year or so. What to expect at China's 'Two Sessions' amid sagging economy, party drama This article is actually pretty good, and not too long and very easy to read and follow. Legislature and political advisory body to convene to pass laws, make political appointments, and set goals for 2024. Taipei, Taiwan China's "Two Sessions" kick off in Beijing on Monday with the meeting of the National People's Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC). The event brings together China's political elite, as well as leaders in business, tech, media, and the arts. Known as lianghui in Chinese, the concurrent meetings are an annual fixture of China's legislative agenda and run for approximately two weeks. During the period, legislators will approve new laws, political appointments, and government work reports detailing the progress of various departments such as the Ministry of Finance and the National Development and Reform Commission. During last year's Two Sessions, delegates officially approved Xi Jinping for an unprecedented third term as president. This year, the event is likely to be dominated by China's lagging economy, which is grappling with slowing growth, deflation, massive debt and falling exports. One of the most important events to watch will be Premier Li Qiang's delivery of the annual work report, which will review the government's accomplishments and set goals for 2024. Li is expected to set an economic growth target of about 5 percent for 2024 and discuss headline issues from China's falling birth rate to the future of tech and artificial intelligence (AI) regulation. A number of key appointments could also be made. Over the past year, 11 members of the NPC's Standing Committee the legislature's 175-member permanent body have been removed, including Minister of Foreign Affairs Qin Gang and Minister of Defence Li Shangfu. The NPC and the CPPCC are both Chinese state institutions that are technically separate from the Communist Party of China (CCP), but much of their work is dictated by it. On paper, the NPC is officially China's highest legislative body with nearly 3,000 members representing the country's provinces, autonomous regions, big cities, the PLA and the People's Armed Police. The NPC also has delegates representing self-governing Taiwan, which is claimed by the CCP even though Beijing has never exercised control over the island. During the NPC, delegates review progress on policy goals and vote to approve new legislation and senior political appointments, although most delegates in reality have little political power. The NPC Standing Committee is widely viewed as more powerful than the legislature in practice, despite being technically subordinate, as it meets regularly between legislative sessions. "The NPC is not a parliament in the sense of a democratic parliament where the representatives are elected through fair elections. Its deputies are elected by a small portion of the Chinese population under the guidance of the Communist Party," Adam Ni, co-editor of the China Neican newsletter, told Al Jazeera. "That is to say, the deputies of the NPC are at least acceptable to the party." The NPC is often referred to as a "rubber stamp" parliament or legislature, as its main function is to formally approve premade decisions and it features little, if any, overt debate. China watchers say that the NPC is still important to watch. It can incorporate limited popular input on issues that are not considered too sensitive and, on rare occasions, has featured displays of dissent. "People refer to the NPC as a 'rubber stamp' because it has never voted down any bill, work report, budget, or nomination presented to it. But that unduly narrow focus on the NPC's vote outcomes alone, in my view, ignores the important role played by the thousands of NPC delegates in representing citizen interests on a range of politically non-sensitive issues," Changhao Wei, a fellow at Yale Law School's Paul Tsai China Center, told Al Jazeera. While you will not hear delegates debating on the floor, individual delegates and bodies such as the NPC Standing Committee can shape legislation as it is being drafted and provide input on issues like the national budget. Delegates can also submit individual bills calling on the NPC to act on important issues of the day. The CPPCC, which meets at the same time and brings together 2,000 plus delegates from across China and the diaspora, is a political advisory body that functions as more of a public relations exercise. Delegates are not necessarily members of the CCP, although the meeting is part of its "United Front" efforts to align different actors on common causes and spread China's influence. CPPCC delegates include leaders in tech, the arts, media, and leaders from semi-autonomous Hong Kong and Macau. "The CPPCC performs several functions, including facilitating elite networking and directing policy advice from outside the party to the party-state. It operates as a means of trade, where the Communist Party provides access to the system and recognition through granting membership, while the elites sitting on the body gain access to policymakers and receive recognition," Ni said. Ni said although the CPP maintains an ironclad grip on power, the party is not a monolith, "but contains a multitude of interest groups and networks". "There are also non-party groups and personnel involved in the lawmaking process," Ni said. "We shouldn't discount their agency, eg, advocates of women's rights, environmentalists, because they can have an impact. But the influence and power of non-party individuals and groups are constrained by the political structure, where the party monopolises the instruments of state power." Here's the next one: China's 'two sessions' 2024: after high-level purges, will party leadership tidy up loose ends? We're going to skip this article's narration of the "Two Sessions" to go on to an actual CCP meeting: The third plenary session of the Central Committee is usually held in the autumn of the year following the twice-a-decade national party congress, which was last held in 2022. Since former paramount leader Deng Xiaoping famously used the plenum to announce China's economic reform and opening-up policy in 1978, it has traditionally been the stage for deciding on the country's development path. However, the party's leadership has not signalled when the conclave will be held this time, marking a first time since 1984 that the event was not held in the year following the party congress. Observers say that part of the reason for the delay may be President Xi Jinping's pending decision on the ongoing purges. Gabriel Wildau, who focuses on political risk analysis in China as managing director at international advisory firm Teneo, said the purges of Qin Gang as foreign minister, Li Shangfu as defence minister, and multiple senior officers from the People's Liberation Army (PLA) had left vacancies in the Central Committee. The replacement of the two ministers, as well as former PLA Rocket Force commander Li Yuchao and political commissar Xu Zhongbo, means the careers of at least four among the 205 "full" members of the Central Committee hang in the balance. The rare reshuffle in top diplomatic and military positions so soon after their appointments suggested serious wrongdoing but Beijing did not explain the removals. That intended vagueness an obvious sign that Beijing has sought to buy time for what could be seen as major embarrassments may not bode well in a plenum, when the leadership usually discloses progress on investigations into senior leaders. A political researcher at Peking University who did not wish to be identified said the purges were likely to entail soul-searching in Beijing on the vetting processes for top cadres, often cited by the party as proof of the strength of its political system. Xi is heavily involved in the vetting process, according to state news agency Xinhua, which said he has personally reviewed the list of all Central Committee members since the 19th party congress in 2017. The reports also said Xi was briefed "many times" in the lead-up to both the 19th and the 20th party congresses to make sure the most "capable, loyal and clean cadres" were picked. They brought up the Rocket Forces' generals who were removed for "water in the fuel tanks" corruption. Something that doesn't make sense. They may have been actually removed for corruption or perhaps they told Xi something he didn't like, but they thought he needed to hear! Both are possible. Going back to my SAC days, decades ago, liquid fueled rockets are fueled before launch due to the corrosiveness of the fuels. Condensate is a problem, but liquid fueled rockets can be throttled up and down and even restarted in flight, so even if they're using inhibited red fuming nitric acid, condensate isn't a big deal as there is some small percentage of water in the fuel. Before I get too far off-track, the point is the stated reasons were bullshit, and the entire purge of the military (that's lasting almost 20 years) is making Xi look bad. "But it seems that even with his personal attention, the process is not 100 per cent [corruption-proof]. He will definitely order the team in charge to reflect on what went wrong and find ways to make it impeccable," the researcher said. Another key function of that third plenum is to set a midterm economic strategy, which, like the personnel purges, will also contribute to the overall direction for the coming two sessions, when Li Qiang will deliver the government work report. But experts have also speculated about another reason for the delay of the plenum that Beijing assessed that the causes of China's economic difficulties are complex and require a nuanced approach meaning the leadership needs more time to examine the facts and come up with a viable strategy. Stock market turmoil might also have added to Xi's concerns over the fragility of the Chinese financial system, especially as high US interest rates and prospects of continued US-China rivalry trigger continued capital outflows. The dent in investor confidence also comes amid patchy post-Covid recovery for the world's No 2 economy, with youth unemployment, demographic trends and property market strains major concerns despite Beijing's announcement of 5.2 per cent growth in 2023. The finance system was among "high-risk" areas mentioned by Xi in January as he ordered the party's top anti-corruption body to show no mercy. The renewed focus on the sector, after a string of high-profile crackdowns on state bankers and financiers since 2017, is viewed as a bid to plug capital control loopholes that would render any market rescue stimulus ineffective. ETA:fixed a spelling mistake right up above as a matter of fact. |
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Posted: 3/11/2024 1:40:27 AM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Alacran: I can't shake the feeling that both China and the US want this conflict to happen soon due to the economies & control potential within both countries. Yeah, I don't trust anyone, anymore. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Alacran: Originally Posted By zoinks: Originally Posted By Alacran: Erik Prince predicts that China will make a move on Taiwan in the next several months with the window of opportunity beginning in late April, early May. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6zICGND2nsI still remember in the late '70s (when I was in High School) that the momentum was definetly on the side of the Soviets. Then, those old ladies that ran things fucked up and went South instead of West. The USSR still would exist if they went into a bloody high casualty War against the West. Many of us sense that the PRC is going to make a move; don't know when; don't know where. But, the momentum is on their side as everyone else is playing "catch-up." My best guess is that just like the old ladies running the Soviet Union, the old ladies running the PRC will fuck it up and lose in the end. Historically, Socialists have only been able to kill tens of millions of people that they already control. Outside of their "little world," they tend to fail against people they don't control more often than not. Sure, they kill lots of people, but they end up losing because they (leadership) find themselves not in control. Either emotionally or intellectually, they can't over come that self-imposed barrier because losing to a group of people they don't control, or even not achieving publically stated objectives, is far too risky and the consequences far too great as those consequences will show up in the population they do control; and now Leadership will assume they have to divert resources from the War effort to impose further controls over the population. As Marxists love circular logic, here it is laid out before them. In the end, they will lose, logically. But, a lot of people have to die first before we get to that point. I can't shake the feeling that both China and the US want this conflict to happen soon due to the economies & control potential within both countries. Yeah, I don't trust anyone, anymore. Such groups of people are generally a subset of the competing interests in any bureaucracy. They're usually the more arrogant ones as they know they alone can control outcomes of events perfectly, and yet, Richelieu, Bismark, Napolean, Stalin and Hitler bested them all. |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 3/11/2024 1:50:17 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: Don’t assume any info we think we have on internal PLA activities is a certain. We have low to no HUMINT intelligence there. The window will not go away or change or stop. It remains every May and October of each year thru 2030 but most especially thru 2027 Hopes and dreams won’t make a war go away https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/china-seems-destined-sink-us-navy-aircraft-carrier-209882 https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_0718_jpeg-3155231.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_0719_jpeg-3155233.JPG Agreeing with Carmel here, and reminding everyone who might need it that the water in missile tanks story was leaked by DoD. It is alleged to have occured by Chinese authorities...in the context of a corruption show trial for several senior military personnel in their strategic land-based rocket arm, whatever it's called. Those allegations might be right. And they might have as much validity as believing Tukachevskiy was actually a German spy when he got purged. We don't know. Might have been because they were insufficiently zealous about actually maybe having to launch if Xi asks. Xi's an old fart. Not compared to our ruling class and wannabes, but he's on the far side of 70. If he wants to see a Greater China that takes a seat at the Superpower table, he doesn't have much time to act to make that happen. I don't know who he thinks he's going to be able to hand the keys to. And their 75th anniversary of founding the Communist state is this year. Been saying this a lot here, apologies for the broken record, but I don't think we have the luxury of five more years to prepare. |
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Posted: 3/11/2024 1:53:48 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: The author apparently is unaware of our submarine building and repair problems that echo our other naval shipbuilding issues but I would agree subs not carriers would be the tip of the spear during an attempt on Taiwan Were inside a 3 to 5 year window and everyone is moving like molasses stuck in theoretical contemplative debates on strategy while procurement is in the rear view mirror and all the baby steps taking lately are nice but hardly meaningful in the quantities necessary or levels required - diplomatically as far as allies, etc. we'll keep talking the talk long into China walking the walk all the while hoping that despite our deterrence has long failed somehow China will be too fucked up to actually do anything- to which I say hope is not a plan Our current DOD budget continues to run on a CR at a time GD has a bunch of threads every month wanting the US military disbanded out of fears a black lesbian army Ranger is going to kick off the civil war 2 for the WEF https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/china-seems-destined-sink-us-navy-aircraft-carrier-209882 https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_0720_jpeg-3155264.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_0721_jpeg-3155265.JPG Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: The author apparently is unaware of our submarine building and repair problems that echo our other naval shipbuilding issues but I would agree subs not carriers would be the tip of the spear during an attempt on Taiwan Were inside a 3 to 5 year window and everyone is moving like molasses stuck in theoretical contemplative debates on strategy while procurement is in the rear view mirror and all the baby steps taking lately are nice but hardly meaningful in the quantities necessary or levels required - diplomatically as far as allies, etc. we'll keep talking the talk long into China walking the walk all the while hoping that despite our deterrence has long failed somehow China will be too fucked up to actually do anything- to which I say hope is not a plan Our current DOD budget continues to run on a CR at a time GD has a bunch of threads every month wanting the US military disbanded out of fears a black lesbian army Ranger is going to kick off the civil war 2 for the WEF https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/china-seems-destined-sink-us-navy-aircraft-carrier-209882 https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_0720_jpeg-3155264.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_0721_jpeg-3155265.JPG I'm thinking that while Naval Surface Warfare is a "clown-show fantanisque," the author is conflating "power projection" with "systems employment or even deployment." The only problem facing the United States is that the Chinese military is aware of America's preference obsession, really with big, beautiful aircraft carriers and they have tailored their strategy for specifically denying America's use of aircraft carriers in any potential conflict with China. For the US military in the Indo-Pacific, the aircraft carrier is center of gravity. For the Chinese military, at least for now, the center of gravity is their massive, growing missile (and hypersonic weapons) arsenal that is primed for holding US aircraft carriers hostage. The US Navy Highlights Its Vulnerabilities for China Oddly, US military planners have known these Chinese strategies for over a decade. Yet, they insist on predicating their strategies on a system, aircraft carriers, that the Chinese can overcome. Should even a single US aircraft carrier be lost in conflict with China, it would create such a large gap in America's defense capabilities that it would likely force the United States to pullback its other forces. Washington has failed to keep pace with the staggering changes in China's military in the last decade alone. No longer only a continental power, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has embraced a coterie of advances that are turning it into a real challenger to the United States military, at least in the territories nearest to China. Coupled with China's status as the second-largest economy (in GDP terms) in the world, along with a comprehensive diplomatic strategy of winning over nations, such as those tiny islands scattered across the South Pacific, and throughout the Third World, Beijing today is far more capable at stunting American military power projection in their near-abroad than at any other time. |
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Posted: 3/11/2024 4:03:16 AM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By FlyNavy75: Sorry but if I were in charge I’d launch an overwhelming nuclear first strike on China while their capabilities are still on the low end. We would lose a few west coast cities but I’d argue that’s an improvement. Either we do it now or later. 
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Posted: 3/11/2024 4:06:12 AM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryIs that you @CarmelBytheSea ?? |
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Posted: 3/11/2024 10:21:27 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Primecube: Is that you @CarmelBytheSea ?? I was with Billy when he tweeted that. I was the one who told him about Eddie’s death |
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Posted: 3/11/2024 10:28:29 AM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By zoinks: I got to read the rest of your stuff, Brother! But, i did read this one!! I'm thinking that while Naval Surface Warfare is a "clown-show fantanisque," the author is conflating "power projection" with "systems employment or even deployment." What if the carrier groups are to the East of the second island chain? The PRC is going to send a lot of missiles blindly, and while someone will bring up that the PLAN has subs, this would be a good way to trap them (monitoring missile strikes). This quote here, though, is very accurate. The American voter fell for the "peace dividend" bullshit 30 years ago. The young are pretty much screwed. Good thing I'm an old man. I'll read it again tomorrow or Tuesday. Take care, Brother!!! 100% agree Chinese subs would get wrecked and even if Russian sold theirs the Chinese don’t have the skill level required. That’s also my guess is the carriers are likely to float around Palau but that’s just too far for F-35s when we have a air tanker shortage and China is prepping to target out air tankers. So while China would waste missiles playing kids game Battleship conversely we’d have trouble keeping air dominance over Taiwan due to ranges. Problem is we have a sub shortage so our subs would wreak havoc on China but we would have more targets than subs available to take all their ships out. Assuming China ASW capabilities are limited. If China can sink our subs were in big trouble. |
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Posted: 3/11/2024 10:40:57 AM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By zoinks: Lot's to read up above! I'm digging it. Let's do the "Two Sessions" in China as it's going on right now. First article is from al-jazeera as it covers things pretty well. Then, we're off to another SCMP article and two sections in that. I'm going to stay away from personalities and dramas. We just need to look at the structure and what goes on, as this event sets the road map for at least a year or so. What to expect at China's 'Two Sessions' amid sagging economy, party drama This article is actually pretty good, and not too long and very easy to read and follow. The important thing to remember is that this isn't a CCP event although, they will be there! We can compare it to the upcoming DNC convention. Elected delegates from all over along with special interest groups and various people whom we will never see on the news, all there to meet the Government of Joe Biden and to approve what they are supposed to approve. I rearranded the order of the original article to help make sense. Here's the next one: China's 'two sessions' 2024: after high-level purges, will party leadership tidy up loose ends? We're going to skip this article's narration of the "Two Sessions" to go on to an actual CCP meeting: I'm going to include some names here because the point of this section on why the "Third Plenum" hasn't been announced yet is to do vacancies of the membership: So, Xi's purges implicate Xi for making poor choices. They brought up the Rocket Forces' generals who were removed for "water in the fuel tanks" corruption. Something that doesn't make sense. They may have been actually removed for corruption or perhaps they told Xi something he didn't like, but they thought he needed to hear! Both are possible. Going back to my SAC days, decades ago, liquid fueled rockets are fueled before launch due to the corrosiveness of the fuels. Condensate is a problem, but liquid fueled rockets can be throttled up and down and even restarted in flight, so even if they're using inhibited red fuming nitric acid, condensate isn't a big deal as there is some small percentage of water in the fuel. Before I get too far off-track, the point is the stated reasons were bullshit, and the entire purge of the military (that's lasting almost 20 years) is making Xi look bad. So, there you haven't, the big three meetings that are the road map for what the PRC is planning to do. Yeah he’s got a lot of shit to sort out in a short time frame or his shining star will be tarnished in the eyes of the party. He’s gotta get the economic issues improved and deal with the PLA with its 100th anniversary just 3 years from now. He can only have a piss poor situation for so long before all that power he accrued turns back onto him - eliminating Generals won’t stop that |
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Posted: 3/11/2024 10:43:17 AM EDT
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea]
[#34]
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Posted: 3/12/2024 1:18:03 PM EDT
[#35]
Newsweek claims the US Army is building a port in the Batanes Islands (I think they are halfway to Taiwan from Luzon)
https://www.newsweek.com/american-army-help-build-new-seaport-near-china-taiwan-philippines-1877927 U.S. defense treaty ally the Philippines is part of the "first island chain" of U.S. partners and allies surrounding China. Batanes, in particular, has strategic merit through its proximity to the Bashi Channel, a potential chokepoint for Chinese forces seeking to enter the open Pacific. Last year, Washington and Manila announced expanded access to U.S. forces on four military bases under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Arrangement (EDCA). It remains unclear whether an extended American military presence is planned at the port after its completion. However, it would likely come into play if the U.S. comes to Taiwan's defense or the U.S.-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty is triggered. As part of its efforts to boost its defenses, the Philippines is increasing the number of naval reservists deployed around the province and fortifying a remote outpost on its Mavulis Island. These measures fulfill a pledge by Philippine armed forces chief Gilberto Teodoro Jr. last month to enhance the country's defensive posture at what he called the "spearhead" of the nation's territory.  Philippine Air Force Black Hawk helicopters land in Batanes on June 29, 2023. Batanes is closer to Taiwan than Manila, and its proximity could thrust it into the spotlight in the event of a conflict. |
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Posted: 3/12/2024 4:18:43 PM EDT
[#36]
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Posted: 3/12/2024 4:25:08 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: LOL like I said https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/12/biden-cut-subs-dems-00146534 7 trillion is chump change these days. You get 2 humvees, an Abrams, a few F15s and 1 sub. But no ammo |
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Posted: 3/12/2024 4:28:17 PM EDT
[Last Edit: CarmelBytheSea]
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By dedreckon: Newsweek claims the US Army is building a port in the Batanes Islands (I think they are halfway to Taiwan from Luzon) https://www.newsweek.com/american-army-help-build-new-seaport-near-china-taiwan-philippines-1877927 https://d.newsweek.com/en/full/2360415/philippine-helicopters-land-batanes-province.webp?w=790&f=e68de7a9af956a6152711cec2bad190d Philippine Air Force Black Hawk helicopters land in Batanes on June 29, 2023. Batanes is closer to Taiwan than Manila, and its proximity could thrust it into the spotlight in the event of a conflict. Saw that article, China has an article in their Global Times bemoaning a billion to be invested into Philippines infrastructure by USA. I didn’t bother posting the China state news as I get annoyed by their non stop bitching sometimes |
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Posted: 3/12/2024 4:47:34 PM EDT
[#39]
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Posted: 3/12/2024 9:41:03 PM EDT
[Last Edit: zoinks]
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: Reminder coming up next month https://m.solomontimes.com/news/countdown-to-decision-day-solomon-islands-national-general-elections/12880 https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_0765_jpeg-3156185.JPG https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_0766_jpeg-3156186.JPG Let me "ETA" about the budget news:
We live in interesting times! |
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Posted: 3/12/2024 10:08:14 PM EDT
[#41]
Score card Time!!
Taiwan tracks 5 Chinese naval ships, 2 aircraft, 1 balloon around nation The MND also tracked one Chinese balloon crossing the median line at 1:53 p.m. on Monday 161 km (87 NM) southwest of Taichung. The balloon traveled northeast and disappeared at 2:38 p.m. So far this month, Taiwan has tracked Chinese military aircraft 115 times and naval vessels 66 times.  Attached Fileand the flight tracker:  Attached FileThese "disappearing" balloons are really interesting. Last year when the PRC started using balloons, they passed over Taiwan onto destinations unknown. Now they "disappear" around and in Taiwan. There's no information other than this, not even a description of any recovered balloons in Taiwan or what the balloons are carrying. |
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Posted: 3/12/2024 10:14:46 PM EDT
[#42]
This is a follow up from early last year when we covered the public war games held by a think tank that had Congresspersons and Staff "play" the various roles in the war game:
Wargame shows US stealth fighters, submarines repulse PLA invasion of Taiwan TAIPEI (Taiwan News) A war game by a Washington, D.C.-based think tank showed U.S. submarines and stealth fighter jets repelling Chinese forces invading Taiwan. The Wall Street Journal on Monday (March 11) released a video of a war simulation by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in 2022. The hexagonal, grid-based map illustrated that U.S. stealth fighters and submarines would be deployed in the north and south of Taiwan to counter the People's Liberation Army (PLA) during a conflict. The report "The First Battle of the Next War" released in January 2023 presented a summary of 24 war simulations conducted in 2022. They mainly resulted in a failed attempt by the Chinese military to invade Taiwan in 2026, resulting in severe naval losses. The report suggested a Pyrrhic victory, with the U.S., Japan, and Taiwan also experiencing significant losses. U.S. media reported early last year that in the majority of the 24 military simulations, the U.S. military lost two aircraft carriers and 10 to 20 large surface combatants within three weeks, while Japan lost more than 100 combat aircraft and 26 warships. In addition, all U.S. military bases in Japan were attacked by the PLA. In every scenario, the cost for every side involved would be "devastating." Cancian said the big takeaway was that the U.S. and its allies can defend Taiwan, "but it comes at a great cost to the Taiwanese economy, the U.S. and its partners lose very heavily, but so do the Chinese, enough so that the grip of the Chinese Communist Party might be in danger." Cancian is this guy in case you don't read the original article: The 10-minute video featured Mark Cancian, who is a senior adviser at CSIS and one of the three leaders of the war games. |
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Posted: 3/12/2024 10:24:05 PM EDT
[#43]
Now for something completely different, Two Taiwanese Defense related stories. The first one is a bit much to swallow.
Taiwan would have air superiority if China attacks: Defense ministry TAIPEI (Taiwan News) Taiwan's defense and intelligence officials said that if China's air force were to intrude, the military would have air superiority and the capability of downing warplanes. During a session of the Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee in the Legislative Yuan on Monday (March 11), Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Legislator Chiu Chih-wei ( ) questioned whether the military would have air superiority over China in the event of a conflict. Vice Defense Minister Alex Po ( ) said the military holds "absolute air superiority" because enemy aircraft are exposed to Taiwan's air defense system and within range of its firepower. National Security Bureau (NSB) Director-General Tsai Ming-yen ( ) presented a report in response to China's "Two Sessions" gathering and the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Po and others were invited to attend and field questions from legislators. Chiu pointed to the greater number of Chinese aircraft, questioning whether the Taiwan Air Force prioritizes quality over quantity. Po said the Air Force did, but that it is also related to tactics and strategies. Po said all aircraft have strengths and weaknesses, but the training of pilots is important. Currently, the recruitment and training of Air Force pilots are adjusted based on cockpit ratios, ensuring there are sufficient pilots, and recruitment efforts have been continuous, he said. But at least the Taiwanese have a clear understancable rules of when to "engage:" Po explained that according to international regulations, when encountering unidentified aircraft within 24 nautical miles (44 km) of Taiwan's contiguous zone, actions such as broadcasting, interception, and expulsion are required. If the intrusion persists into the 12 nautical miles (22 km) of Taiwan's airspace or territorial waters, the right to self-defense will be exercised per Article 51 of the U.N. Charter. Lai then asked whether the military could shoot down enemy aircraft that enter Taiwanese airspace, to which Po said, "Yes." The second article is about a weapon that's supposed to be fielded this year: Taiwan developing armored laser vehicles to counter Chinese drones TAIPEI (Taiwan News) Taiwan is building a new weapon system comprised of a laser mounted on an armored vehicle to counter the threat of Chinese drones. A defense official told Liberty Times on March 5 that after completing research on a prototype low-powered vehicle-mounted laser cannon last year, with the help of "international friends," the National Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology (NCSIST) had successfully developed a 50 kW laser cannon. It is to be mounted on CM-32 Clouded Leopard armored vehicles and is set to enter the testing phase this year. The U.S. military recently sent four Stryker armored vehicles equipped with a 50kW Directed Energy Maneuver-Short Range Air Defense (DE M-SHORAD) system to the Middle East for field testing. The purpose was to evaluate the effectiveness of lasers in harsh environments such as sandstorms and to examine their ability to intercept unmanned aerial vehicles and other aircraft. High-energy laser weapons are one of the weapon systems that various countries are competing to develop. A 50 kW laser has sufficient power to take down suicide drones, slow-speed aircraft, and other aerial threats. The NCSIST is developing the system under the codename "Lightning Protection Project" ( ). High-energy laser weapons offer significant cost advantages, with each shot costing only a few dollars. Taking Israel as an example, the Tamir interceptor missile used in the Iron Dome air defense system is estimated to cost between US$40,000 and $50,000 (approximately NT$1.28 million to NT$1.61 million) per missile. According to former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, using laser air defense weapons for interception is cost-effective, with each shot costing only US$3.50. |
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USA
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Posted: 3/12/2024 10:32:41 PM EDT
[#44]
Lots of Marines died taking the Solomons, why isn't this ours to begin with?🤔
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Posted: 3/12/2024 10:40:22 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By sb67: Lots of Marines died taking the Solomons, why isn't this ours to begin with? It was a British possession that the Japanese took over and the Americans liberated. The British took over governance again. It was that simple. |
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Posted: 3/13/2024 3:42:35 PM EDT
[#46]
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Posted: 3/14/2024 1:36:15 PM EDT
[#47]
Japan doing some infuence ops, as they should be.
1st Time Since World War-2, Japan Set To Bring 14 South Pacific Island Nations Under Its Security Ambit An imperialist Japan in World War II had brought the world to its knees. Since then, Japan eschewed aggressive defense posturing. However, as China’s unnerving growth is threatening peace in the South Pacific, Japan, in its biggest maneuver since World War II, is bringing 14 strategic island countries in the region together in an attempt to have collective security. Japan has invited the defense ministers of 14 island nations in the South Pacific region to Tokyo for a multilateral meeting with Defense Minister Minory Kihara on March 19 and 20. The move is also aimed at countering China’s dealmaking with these smaller but strategically important countries. This is the first in-person meeting between these countries. During these talks, Japan is expected to offer Japanese Self Defense Forces and police imparting training to the forces of these island countries. This is a marked departure from Japan’s pacifist policies post World War II. In response, the US has accelerated its Pacific diplomacy and hosted a landmark Pacific leaders’ summit. On March 11, after a long impasse, the US Congress cleared the US $7.1 billion aid for the northern Pacific Islands of Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands as part of a long-standing funding deal called the Compacts of Free Association (Cofa). The COFA funding will help the US military gain exclusive access to a vast sea between the Philippines and Hawaii, where it will be able to locate its missile and military facilities. Australia has also been conducting diplomatic efforts to secure its interests in the region. Fiji, Papua New Guinea, and Tonga already have their defense forces, with cooperation agreements with Australia, New Zealand, and the United States. China’s financing of development activities in the region has decreased since 2016; however, it continues to focus on security cooperation and commercial activities. Some Pacific leaders have expressed concerns about the implications of China’s involvement, including potential control over fisheries and communications infrastructure. At the same time, the countries are also wary of the unspoken drivers of Japanese engagement, with balancing Chinese power being the foremost. |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 3/15/2024 1:25:58 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CarmelBytheSea: https://breakingdefense.com/2024/03/army-4-star-eyes-new-opportunities-exercises-focused-on-sustainment-logistics-in-indo-pacific/ Would certainly be an issue if our over-the-beach sustainment units get thrown away in Gaza, and left undeployable for another year or two...almost like maybe that's the goal of sending them to Gaza. |
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Posted: 3/15/2024 3:40:08 PM EDT
[#49]
If Biden has such a weak response to the Houthi's who are actually shooting at our military or commercial boats, I don't know why we would believe he would do much of anything if a vastly more powerful entity (China) just militarized the Solomon islands. The Houthi's have "militarized the entrance to one of the most important commercial sea lanes, and Biden's response has been disturbingly weak.
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Posted: 3/15/2024 6:04:07 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Genin: If Biden has such a weak response to the Houthi's who are actually shooting at our military or commercial boats, I don't know why we would believe he would do much of anything if a vastly more powerful entity (China) just militarized the Solomon islands. The Houthi's have "militarized the entrance to one of the most important commercial sea lanes, and Biden's response has been disturbingly weak. As with Obama and the take over of the SCS, Biden doesn't mind if China takes over the Pacific in a limited way 
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