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Posted: 4/16/2024 2:59:35 PM EDT
[Last Edit: FALARAK]
More and more analysts moving into the camp of "No Landing" as the global economy looks to keep growing.
Sorry doomers! 
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MT, USA
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Posted: 4/16/2024 3:02:34 PM EDT
[#1]
The guys in the really long doom & gloom thread will say that "No Landing" means the plane exploded in mid-air
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Posted: 4/16/2024 3:03:35 PM EDT
[#2]
Stuff like that makes me start to worry.
It’s like Cramer syndrome 
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Posted: 4/16/2024 3:04:58 PM EDT
[#3]
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FL, USA
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Posted: 4/16/2024 3:06:20 PM EDT
[#4]
No landing = Crash landing because the landing gear failed to deploy so we gotta hope we can skid down the runway and no crash into the backstop
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USA
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Posted: 4/16/2024 3:06:53 PM EDT
[#5]
If you massively understate inflation you too can have sustained GDP growth. Meanwhile my company is preparing for another round of layoffs that have been ongoing since December 2022.
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Posted: 4/16/2024 3:07:08 PM EDT
[#6]
My investments hope and pray you're correct OP.
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USA
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Posted: 4/16/2024 3:07:49 PM EDT
[Last Edit: broken_reticle]
[#7]
Completely plausible.
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Posted: 4/16/2024 3:08:37 PM EDT
[Last Edit: woodsie]
[#8]
EDIT: LOL, NM. I thought "no landing" meant something even worse than a hard landing.
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Posted: 4/16/2024 3:09:50 PM EDT
[#9]
Originally Posted By FALARAK: More and more analysts moving into the camp of "No Landing" as the global economy looks to keep growing. Sorry doomers! https://i.postimg.cc/zG3rw3HH/screenshot-810.jpg I get my news from CNN, too. Meanwhile, despite making increasing amounts of money I have less and less left over at the end of each month because inflation is so low? |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 3:10:31 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By woodsie: LOL, NM. I thought "no landing" meant something even worse than a hard landing. Growing economy with inflation above the target. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 3:16:10 PM EDT
[#11]
If OP posts harder it makes the doom go away.
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TX, USA
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Posted: 4/16/2024 3:17:17 PM EDT
[#12]
I have cash in brokerage account because I'm stupid. I'm waiting for a crash.
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Posted: 4/16/2024 3:18:28 PM EDT
[#13]
We are going to have sticky inflation, high interest rates and a grind to slowing growth. All the worst possible scinero.
LULU Lemon, Ulta, Starbucks, Ralph Loren some homebuilders and others in the last two weeks are stating consumers are starting to pull back. 30 Year mortgage at 7.5 IMO whcih is a breaking point. The strongest areas are restaurants IMO. Always a wait for the best places. And they can charge anythig they want. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 3:19:39 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Notcalifornialegal: Growing economy with inflation above the target. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Notcalifornialegal: Originally Posted By woodsie: LOL, NM. I thought "no landing" meant something even worse than a hard landing. Growing economy with inflation above the target. I could certainly buy that argument. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 3:20:10 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By QwikKotaTx: I have cash in brokerage account because I'm stupid. I'm waiting for a crash. The crash won't happen until you capitulate and shove that money in. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 3:26:23 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ZuoZongtang: We are going to have sticky inflation, high interest rates and a grind to slowing growth. All the worst possible scinero. LULU Lemon, Ulta, Starbucks, Ralph Loren some homebuilders and others in the last two weeks are stating consumers are starting to pull back. 30 Year mortgage at 7.5 IMO whcih is a breaking point. The strongest areas are restaurants IMO. Always a wait for the best places. And they can charge anythig they want. Everybody involved in the restaurant supply chain is circling the wagons, laying off, or has instituted hiring freezes. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 3:28:06 PM EDT
[#17]
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Posted: 4/16/2024 3:30:15 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Notcalifornialegal: Growing economy with inflation above the target. Inflation, as long as it is reasonable, which 3% is, is the cost of doing business: the fact that wages continue to outpace inflation means people have the $ to push inflation even higher (via demand). |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 3:39:09 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By woodsie: EDIT: LOL, NM. I thought "no landing" meant something even worse than a hard landing. growth forever. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 3:43:02 PM EDT
[#20]
In other breaking news:
"Nine out of ten dentists surveyed recommend sugarless gum for their patients who chew gum". |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 3:44:00 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Notcalifornialegal]
[#21]
Edit
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Posted: 4/16/2024 3:45:17 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MtnMusic: The guys in the really long doom & gloom thread will say that "No Landing" means the plane exploded in mid-air  I actually feel sorry for the posters in that thread. They simply want to live in fear. They need a therapist. Seriously. |
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AS, USA
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Posted: 4/16/2024 3:45:19 PM EDT
[Last Edit: CoconutLaCroix]
[#23]
If economies can defy gravity, and we can run multi-trillion dollar annual budget deficits with no negative long term economic consequences, can we just admit that Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden were right? That massive govt spending is the answer and that deficits don't matter?
It's time to drop the stupid fiscally conservative facade. Balanced budgets and living within your means is all bullshit. Republicans should just focus on protecting gun rights and gender norms, fuck economics and all that other irrelevant shit. Give the people the stimulus and UBI that they want and deserve. There's literally no point in being fiscally conservative. Print, borrow, spend and watch the economy roar! Run bull run! |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 3:50:42 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Notcalifornialegal]
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CoconutLaCroix: If economies can defy gravity, and we can run multi-trillion dollar annual budget deficits with no negative long term economic consequences, can we admit that Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden are right? That massive govt spending is the answer and that deficits don't matter? It's time to drop the stupid fiscally conservative facade. Balanced budgets and living within your means is all bullshit. Republicans should just focus on protecting gun rights and gender norms, fuck economics and all that other irrelevant shit. Give the people the stimulus and UBI that they want and deserve. There's literally no point in being fiscally conservative. Print, borrow, spend and watch the economy roar! Run bull run! People really underestimate American Capitalism. We have the worst president since FDR in office right now and somehow people are figuring out ways to make more money. If we cut spending and deregulated the shit out our own economy we could solve a ton of problems. Even a mildly competent President such as Trump could accomplish this. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 3:51:03 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ZuoZongtang: We are going to have sticky inflation, high interest rates and a grind to slowing growth. All the worst possible scinero. LULU Lemon, Ulta, Starbucks, Ralph Loren some homebuilders and others in the last two weeks are stating consumers are starting to pull back. 30 Year mortgage at 7.5 IMO whcih is a breaking point. The strongest areas are restaurants IMO. Always a wait for the best places. And they can charge anythig they want. People I know with solid credit are house shopping right now and seeing 8% rates. |
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OR, USA
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Posted: 4/16/2024 3:55:41 PM EDT
[#26]
Talking to more and more people who are seeing jobs slowing down in the trades. Guys who used to beg for help are now being asked if they need help electricians and plumbers not having enough work not taking on new apprentices salesman tell me its slowing down
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Posted: 4/16/2024 3:58:46 PM EDT
[#27]
My company is laying people off. I see jobs posted but everything looks fake. Meaning same jobs get posted over and over. I know they could fill them if they wanted to based on the job description being mid level requirements and the pay range being well above top performer pay.
Yet the jobs gets posted as if they are just trying to have the job posted. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 4:03:59 PM EDT
[Last Edit: BillofRights]
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fike: If OP posts harder it makes the doom go away. Something you have to keep in mind: All Doom is Local. People in general, don’t really feel anything, outside of their little bubble. The stock market is up bigtime and real estate went parabolic. If you had investment assets, you’d feel like a Kaaannng! Arf-millionairs are now Arf-dosMillionairs. If I could take a pill and see it like OP, I would. But used to be poor and much of my family still is. I know how many people got left behind in our little mini hyper inflation event, and it’s really hard to see it as a good thing, but I’m trying. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 4:04:42 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By QwikKotaTx: I have cash in brokerage account because I'm stupid. I'm waiting for a crash. Me too! But I don't think it is stupid. Get both. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 4:04:54 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By KILLERB6: 3 or 4% inflation (Fed target is 2.5%ish) really isn’t that bad, especially in historical terms. Inflation, as long as it is reasonable, which 3% is, is the cost of doing business: the fact that wages continue to outpace inflation means people have the $ to push inflation even higher (via demand). It stacked on a pretty bad period of much higher inflation. Its sort of missing a massive part of reality when we look at inflation and compare it to when it was fucked up. "See guys its not getting fucked up as fast..." I gauge based on the most recent time it wasn't shit... Couple that with the fact that the inflation numbers omit very relevant aspects of the financial situation and you have the reality that most people are not better off. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 4:06:08 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ZuoZongtang: 30 Year mortgage at 7.5 IMO whcih is a breaking point. No, it isn't. It is a reversion to the mean. It will have an impact and put pressure on the housing prices. 7.5% is nothing compared to history. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 4:12:06 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BillofRights: If I could take a pill and see it like OP, I would. But used to be poor and much of my family still is. I know how many people got left behind in our little mini hyper inflation event, and it’s really hard to see it as a good thing, but I’m trying. I'm much more pessimistic than I appear, have an overly defensive portfolio, and have an inherited scarcity mindset. I have to work every day to see outside of that, as it has hurt me financially. I have traveled the US and several parts of the world, and very much recognize how sheltered and isolated we can become if we allow it. I just think this site is overrun with doomer mentality. It impacted me greatly when I was younger, listening to the doomer tards here. I watched it consume people in my family as well, so I resist it wherever I can. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 4:18:15 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By QwikKotaTx: I have cash in brokerage account because I'm stupid. I'm waiting for a crash. This will sound like a typical arfbrag, but it’s actually kinda profound: The trick is to Get Both. Have enough savings that you can keep enough “Safe” money earning 5%, and invest the rest in the Casino, because if it gets cut in half, it won’t materially affect your life. We all Know the Greenspan put will continue forever. That’s what we’re all counting on, and it’s counterproductive to plan otherwise. So, you wager 80% on that, and keep back maybe ~20% for JIC. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 4:20:48 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CoconutLaCroix: If economies can defy gravity, and we can run multi-trillion dollar annual budget deficits with no negative long term economic consequences, can we just admit that Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden were right? That massive govt spending is the answer and that deficits don't matter? It's time to drop the stupid fiscally conservative facade. Balanced budgets and living within your means is all bullshit. Republicans should just focus on protecting gun rights and gender norms, fuck economics and all that other irrelevant shit. Give the people the stimulus and UBI that they want and deserve. There's literally no point in being fiscally conservative. Print, borrow, spend and watch the economy roar! Run bull run! Fwiw, They already decided that many years ago. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 4:21:33 PM EDT
[#35]
FUCK joe biden
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SC, USA
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Posted: 4/16/2024 4:22:20 PM EDT
[#36]
I recommend moar debt.
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Posted: 4/16/2024 4:22:34 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By FALARAK: I'm much more pessimistic than I appear, have an overly defensive portfolio, and have an inherited scarcity mindset. I have to work every day to see outside of that, as it has hurt me financially. I have traveled the US and several parts of the world, and very much recognize how sheltered and isolated we can become if we allow it. I just think this site is overrun with doomer mentality. It impacted me greatly when I was younger, listening to the doomer tards here. I watched it consume people in my family as well, so I resist it wherever I can. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By FALARAK: Originally Posted By BillofRights: If I could take a pill and see it like OP, I would. But used to be poor and much of my family still is. I know how many people got left behind in our little mini hyper inflation event, and it’s really hard to see it as a good thing, but I’m trying. I'm much more pessimistic than I appear, have an overly defensive portfolio, and have an inherited scarcity mindset. I have to work every day to see outside of that, as it has hurt me financially. I have traveled the US and several parts of the world, and very much recognize how sheltered and isolated we can become if we allow it. I just think this site is overrun with doomer mentality. It impacted me greatly when I was younger, listening to the doomer tards here. I watched it consume people in my family as well, so I resist it wherever I can. I hate the business of doom porn more than most and can salute any effort against it, but there are tons of signs that we can insert the “broken clock” analogy this time around, unfortunately. As was mentioned above, perception is often local but a pretty easy bellweather is shipping. It’s the first to fall and the first to rebound. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 4:24:40 PM EDT
[#38]
It's an election year. Just look at history.
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USA
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Posted: 4/16/2024 4:24:58 PM EDT
[#39]
So no off the cliff into the abyss.
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Posted: 4/16/2024 4:25:11 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Notcalifornialegal: Growing economy with inflation above the target. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Notcalifornialegal: Originally Posted By woodsie: LOL, NM. I thought "no landing" meant something even worse than a hard landing. Growing economy with inflation above the target. Don't care as long as my stonks keep inflating too!... |
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UT, USA
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Posted: 4/16/2024 4:25:30 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Whiskey1Alpha]
[#41]
We are in the midst of the ultimate tier of kicking the can down the road while telling everyone to look around at how great things are.
If we were serious about (or would even acknowledge) what true inflation currently is, the interest rate would be somewhere around 20%. It's not, and we continue to kick around 'threats' of 1/2 point hikes or whatever. It's a joke. So half of the economy is 'running' based on stupid consumerism that people are trying to feel their way around (cut costs, live on debt/credit cards) which will eventually fail as they run out of rope. A lot of them keep going because they actually believe the shit they are being told about a great economy and think that they must be one of the few people who aren't doing it right. The other half is benefitting from the skyrocketing inflation and the interest rates we don't want to raise. It's companies buying literally everything real estate wise. Most people, other than those coming from CA where their 300 sq ft shed they sold for 3 million can now afford to buy a big house in another state, are priced out of the market or are having to make themselves house poor to even get anything; and that anything is usually a shit tier build tract home for 300% more than it was 5 years ago.. After that, it is nothing but companies buying housing which just has it in an ever revolving supply/demand that they are themselves creating yet is being used as an example of how 'great' the economy is. Yay economy! More and more are racking up debt. A lot think their overpriced shit tier house is an investment. Inflation is through the roof. Wages are flat. There is no landing because we refuse at this point to acknowledge gravity. This feels like when you kept hearing about how 83% of Americans wanted Obamacare on the news 24/7, yet, you could never find 2 people who wanted it. It's a giant lie. The resolution to the argument of doom/will it crash/muh economy is simple - we are all being lied to. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 4:26:18 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By KILLERB6: 3 or 4% inflation (Fed target is 2.5%ish) really isn’t that bad, especially in historical terms. Inflation, as long as it is reasonable, which 3% is, is the cost of doing business: the fact that wages continue to outpace inflation means people have the $ to push inflation even higher (via demand). Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By KILLERB6: Originally Posted By Notcalifornialegal: Growing economy with inflation above the target. Inflation, as long as it is reasonable, which 3% is, is the cost of doing business: the fact that wages continue to outpace inflation means people have the $ to push inflation even higher (via demand). lol... |
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SC, USA
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Posted: 4/16/2024 4:30:03 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BlackTuono: If you massively understate inflation you too can have sustained GDP growth. Meanwhile my company is preparing for another round of layoffs that have been ongoing since December 2022. Powell failed to get ahead of inflation and now he cant lower rates. |
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UT, USA
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Posted: 4/16/2024 4:32:07 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By eolian: Powell failed to get ahead of inflation and now he cant lower rates. We are doing what every stupid failing business does when putting together a business plan; Totally overstating potential revenues / positives Totally understating costs / negatives See, look, everything is great! |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 4:32:33 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By atavistic: I recommend moar debt. We'll all suffer tremendously if the computer doesn't keep rolling forward... |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 4/16/2024 4:33:38 PM EDT
[#46]
I got out of the market completely in Oct. '22 so IJDGAF at this point. But, I suspect nothing gloomy will happen until after the election.
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Posted: 4/16/2024 4:33:42 PM EDT
[#47]
So what's it called when you're money is worth 20-30% less?
We don't give a fuck where you land? |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 4/16/2024 4:35:17 PM EDT
[#48]
Yup and 3 rate cuts this year right?
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UT, USA
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Posted: 4/16/2024 4:35:46 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By joemama74: So what's it called when you're money is worth 20-30% less? We don't give a fuck where you land? With the retards in charge, its probably more like, oh wait, this plane runs on fuel and the fuel will eventually run out? |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 4:40:47 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Whiskeyballzzz: I got out of the market completely in Oct. '22 so IJDGAF at this point. But, I suspect nothing gloomy will happen until after the election. Damn. That was an expensive mistake. |
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