Depends on which year you pick.  2000 and 2008 would indicate crazy times ahead.

If you believe the positive opinions you have to believe the negative opinions.

Any chance there are tax breaks for posting jobs?  Kinda what it sounds like...

That part is impossible to predict. There is a strong (super strong, ~.99 iirc) correlation with duration of yield inversion and duration of the following recession. This one is LONG. Longest in history I believe. Where the federal funds rate goes, unemployment goes. MacroEdge is the tip of the spear for data visualization that paints a forward looking picture.

It's easy to view a backward-looking report like "GDP is 3.9%" and think everything is great. Economist Claudia Sahm created a recession indicator and then self-destructed/bailed out of her twitter account after a recent jobs/inflation report where something like 30 states are already entering recession indicated by her own rule.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMCURRENT  

67,470 job cuts this month, so far #MacroEdge

I need a mojito pic.twitter.com/LXJG3JEooZ

MacroEdge  (@MacroEdgeRes) April 17, 2024

I arfcom fashion get both, hedge.

Bingo.....how many times has a bank bailout happened where we never made a real budget for over a decade....anyone know the consequences of this from history

Some of the more popular ones and the local froo froo hip places are making out ok, but a lot of the average FF chains are seeing some pull back. And if gas gets close to $6, you’re going to see more pull back for sure.

I don’t know. I didn’t get a 20% wage hike the last few years. My money doesn’t go as far. But I’m a DINK now aka empty nester. I can manage ok. But my kids with kids  have to watch their money.  We have a yours and mine family. I had 3 kids, she has 4. One of mine owns a house. 2 of hers own a house. The rest of our kids will have a hard time getting into one if they ever do. What I’m saying is, that 3-4% inflation number is BullSh*t.

I don’t think it’s the interest rates so much. As I agree with you, the rates aren’t that bad, And in my opinion, a 6-8% is a more healthy rate. But I think part of the problem is the percentage of increase in the housing prices. In 2008 I had to buy my ex wife out of her half in a divorce. My place was valued around 140 K. So I got a 6.25 rate on 70k to pay her off. In 16 years my house has doubled. Or more. So something has to give so housing can get back in reach to the general public again. I don’t know what that looks like. Wages have to go up, house sizes go back down, housing crash, limit investment companies from buying single family homes????

No one paying the slightest bit of attention to their budget  thinks inflation is 3 or 4 percent.
Insurance up 25 percent
Property taxes up 25 percent
Local utilities got their rate hike approved by the mobsters at the state, up 30 percent.
Groceries, particularly beef, produce, and fresh foods up 15 percent at least.
Gas and fuel prices up 15 to 20 percent

Wages are getting hammered by inflation.
Most of the good news in the jobs reports is .gov spending
The bad news in the jobs reports is swept under the rug
Powell and Yellen are out of cards to play, so they just make up the economic data to fit their election year bullshit.

Edit: double post

What I like about the economic numbers being up is we don’t have to hear from that CVO guy. He only crawls out of his cave to be insufferable when the market slips a bit.

I agree, and supply/demand will help prices adjust.

The investment companies buying single family homes is mostly nonsense hysteria, and often regurgitated here.  The majority of corporation owned single family homes are small time rental property owners.  The blackrock boogeyman is mostly made-up BS from looney tooners.

The other day I read an article saying the Fed was 1 for 9 in avoiding a hard landing during rate hiking cycles.  

“Don’t fight the Fed”

Inflation is 13% don't kid yourself.

No landing means the party continues all night. Yahoo! No consequences to money printing. This country is sooooo rich!!!

Yeah naw we definitely in for a hurtin sometime soonish. They fudgin the numbers to try and make dems look good. I'll be surprised if we make it to the election before it shits the bed.

Of course I'll just buy more then.

we went from 22 t to 35t in biden years

No, it isn't.  Just saying that means you don't really understand how it works.  Inflation is measured across multiple categories.  Just coming up with one number, is wrong.  We all buy different things in different quantities.

If you meant to say that CPI is 13% YoY from the last month, that is also wrong.

I’m no economist but you are right about the fact that inflationary monetary policy makes you spend your money on something. Even my dumb a$$ can see that money in the bank is money losing money. I just need to learn to put it in smarter things than guns and bullets. That $49 Mauser is worth $250 now.??

As sucky as it is to read this, it's correct, house loans in the 7% area were the typical, not an outlier.

House prices are what need to adjust back to the mean and that isn't anything I see happening sooner or later. Houses are NOT what they once were. You cannot have a house 2-3 times the size with amenities that were unheard of and expect house prices to adjust back down to what they used to be.

problem is I cant sell my pew pew 30's now  trading was once a revenue source.

We are all going to be millionaires!

Something is going to adjust, that's for sure. Two new builds. A block apart. Buy a townhome in a HOA for $5500/mo or rent a freestanding house with extra bedroom and yard for $2700/mo. This is happening all over America.

What do they mean by fees in the freestanding house. Is that an HOA?

Rent vs buy. Fees are move in or deposit.

If there's a downturn it means I'm buying stonks when they're on sale.

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I’m avoiding looking at my accounts, but I’ll still contribute to them when it comes time to.

This is… an extremely optimistic view.

It's not different this time?

Inflation… high energy costs… no real end in sight.


I hope I’m wrong. But I’m really not super optimistic.

A new president will help, but won’t fix the fundamental flaws in the economy.  At least, in my opinion/from my perspective.

But supposedly there are pros watching this. And I’m just some dumb fuck on the internet.


(I should really go back and get my masters or PhD in economics.)

Besides being swamp infested, the GDP numbers reflect $1.5 -$2 trillion per year in deficit spending.  This is unsustainable.  No idea when, but $1T in interest per year means that we are getting close.

If you have $100K income and $700K in debt and $25K in just interest payments and you are adding $50K a year in more debt, how long until no one lends you money anymore?

If the pros were as smart as they think they are, then this nation would have never seen failed banks, bailouts, tech bubbles, and traders jumping out of windows. Every level from consumers to the .gov are buried under mountains of debt, and the hole keeps getting dug deeper. I've noticed a distinct reduction in spending in our larger corporate customers (gas station/c stores and heating fuels). Stuff that was "go ahead and do it and bill us later" has gone to "we need a quote to see if we want to do it or not". I imagine at some point our industrial work is going to dry up as they seem like they are getting ready for a downturn.

Recall that the Fed has literally hundreds of Econ PhD's, along with the Treasury and SEC.

NONE of them saw LTCM, the tech crash, the housing bubble, Madoff, inflation rising, the China bubble, SBF, and on and on.

No landing.  Everything will keep getting more expensive until after the presidential election, and we have to increase interest slowly.

This is supposed to fix the housing problem. Homes will somehow become affordable when loans are below 6%. It fixes the supply as well as the cost of building a new home apparently.

I thought they were deficit spending to the tune of $1 Trillion every 100 days or so now?

On a more optimistic note(not really), we talked to our realtor friend yesterday and the small investors are unloading their properties.

Exactly.

The guy that said wages are outpacing inflation is full of shit.

I have made money off the market, but it’s ludicrous to think we’re on a sustainable path.

I'm on the no landing category also. But for a different reason.

Warning: long post, ain't no body got time for that... which also explains what I'm about to say in my second point...

I believe we don't give proper credit to what I described our situation, for lack of a better phrase, "a different time".

I think we are just in a different time. There used to be two things that were very common in life that are different now. The speed of information and the decline of fraternal organizations.

I recall the day we had a DTN (satellite info service)unit setup in the house back in the early 90's. Strictly for the purpose of being able to get commodities futures info faster, to execute a better order. That was big shit. It was live (ish). You still had to call or fax a guy to get it done. Now look what happened? Everyone has super computers in their pockets now.  Back Then the second best was a satellite stream outside of sitting in a pit at the CME. Now it's literally automatic and automated. A true speed of light equation.  

Speed changes everything. It allows for decision at light speed. That's something kinda new. Even back in the 08' time frame, we had to log on a desk top or look at a tv for ticker data. Not no more..... do things tip over? Sure, but maneuvering fast enough allows one to dodge the proverbial bullet, and realign, reallocate, and re-engage very fast. COVID tested my theory out. By the numbers my portfolio should have been halved, but it wasn't. Fidelity has some serious OODA loop shit built into their algorithms and systems. I observed a 15-20% drop instead of 50%.

Secondly, the decline of fraternal organizations. Let's face it, the internet changed everything. It just did. Top to bottom. Why does that matter? It's no secret fraternal organization of any kind has had declining membership for a while. Masons, eagles, elks, Kiwanas, churches, softball leagues, local race tracks, Grange..... you name it. All of them, All smaller. The internet and social media changed fraternal organizations.

Why does it matter? The consumer resiliency is easy to explain in my opinion. The American society no longer clutches pearls together in a face to face fashion. Older generations would worry/panic, hit the stop button and camp out together (obviously this is a generalization) anyone somewhere around GenX and down has the response of "meh" and goes about what they're doing. (Again generalizing)

The bedrock of economics is confidence. If people aren't that worried, they'll continue to consume, produce and invest.

TLDR; it's a different time, with different people, and a high level of idgaf...

You could say the same for a $20 here. Granted you’d have to go back a century or so.

When you look at M2, it makes sense. Time doesn't stop. Big wheel keeps turning. 5Ds. Sustainable? Maybe. Maybe not. If the government could just hold of on adding new spending the issue would sort it self out. They could grow their way out of deficits. But buying votes seems to be in our DNA apparently.

I guess that's the question? What's better, value or growth? I'm a value guy, but I think there I think growth has a quality all of its own in growth.

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They don't know shit about fuck.  6 months ago everyone was in the hard landing camp.

What if the economy is on a treadmill?

It does, because it means more analysts are getting the delusion that what goes up doesn't eventually come down. It ALWAYS does. It's when the analysts get a growing contingent of irrational optimists that the potential for serious problems is greater.

The Fed has said that M2 isn't important and they no longer incorporate into their decisions.

OK....

Well. Let’s stop and evaluate the reality that we see. Not what they tell us, what we see.


1: they lie.  All the time.   They cook the CPi results.  They cook the employment numbers.  They cook everything they can.  
2: people are hurting.  The cost of food is making it difficult.
3: people are tightening their belt.  Every Saturday night I get sent to post the bar area in town.  We can notice the trends.  It’s a visible difference in the amount of people that go, and this is during tax season, when people are more likely to toss money around.
4: housing prices are pushing the middle class out of home ownership.


It make not have a hard or soft landing, I just know that the ride is bumpy as hell.

Long term I wonder one thing.

The interest rate hikes will cause issues down the road.  You think we have a “student loan crisis” now.  Wait till the people signing loans at today’s interest rates start paying.  
I got my rate at like 2.3%. Rates right now are 3x that. Sure they don’t make payments while in school, but give it a few years and they will start.  That’s a large chunk of money.

No.  6 months ago, as clearly seen on the chart, only 30% of the analysts being tracked as on record, were in the Hard Landing camp.

The deficit spending is not 100% related to interested.  They have to spend for Medicare, Medicaid, Defense, etc.

And for homes, the supply is picking up.  As insurance renewals and property tax increases continue to increase, the profit margins compress.

Airbnb owners next to Disney are selling.

And selling fast.

With the for sale inventory in the ZIP code south of Disney skyrocketing by 431% the last two years.

Now to the highest level of listings on record. By far.

Watch out for this Airbnb selloff to spread to more markets… pic.twitter.com/XiDVeE09Af

Nick Gerli  (@nickgerli1) April 15, 2024

Interesting take. Probably the best post in this thread. (Not hard since most of it is 2 sides screaming at each out like bugs bunny and daffy duck "rabbit season!" "duck season!" "rabbit season!" "duck season!")