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OK, USA
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Posted: 3/29/2024 10:04:16 AM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJt_KKIbEAAViGO?format=jpg&name=medium https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJt_JS4bkAALs6H?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJuGQJSbEAAWTmN?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJtZedAWwAAaUzQ?format=jpg&name=medium
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJsnoTuXwAAIWc4?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJtS2I5XoAMfJEe?format=png&name=900x900
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJtMZExXkAAjXUq?format=jpg&name=small Khrenov == XpeHoB == crap lol @ Mr. Khrenov. 
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Posted: 3/29/2024 10:08:23 AM EDT
[#2]
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Posted: 3/29/2024 10:26:37 AM EDT
[#3]
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Posted: 3/29/2024 10:38:16 AM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJ1kACHWsAA_Ehd?format=jpg&name=900x900 And that's still more palatable for Russians than a scenario where it was shotdown by Ukrainians Western weapons 
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Posted: 3/29/2024 10:47:24 AM EDT
[#5]
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WY, USA
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Posted: 3/29/2024 11:07:10 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJ1kACHWsAA_Ehd?format=jpg&name=900x900 "WHAT AIR DEFENSE DOING?" 
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Posted: 3/29/2024 11:19:40 AM EDT
[#7]
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Posted: 3/29/2024 11:27:43 AM EDT
[Last Edit: guns762]
[#8]
[Deleted]
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Posted: 3/29/2024 11:39:11 AM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJ2Ob1yWoAEIO00?format=jpg&name=small  |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 11:47:14 AM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By PMB1086:
Holy shit, did he see a snake in the grass? |
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USA
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Posted: 3/29/2024 11:47:52 AM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By silverstate55: What would prevent the Belarus forces from invading the Baltic States (instead of Russian forces)? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By silverstate55: Originally Posted By strykr: Russia does not have enough troops in Ukraine to launch a second invasion. And they cannot simply travel through Ukraine to Belarus. They would have to withdraw in order to go around them, risking a collapse of the front. He needs to win in Ukraine first before he can open a second front. Sending Russian troops to Belarus, with the intention of invading the Baltics would be the signal that the war is now spreading to multiple countries, and is no longer a localized conflict. Troop movements would be picked up with the satellites. NATO must have a play book already for this exact scenario. The proper response for this would likely be NATO troops moving into Western Ukraine and/or a no fly zone. Poland would also have time to prepare for the war with Belarus. Russia cannot move through Belarus fast enough to surprise the Baltics, since NATO already anticipates this move. It would take weeks to move those old BMPs and T-64s from Ukraine, and Putin must know that those tanks are no match for NATO. He would be better off taking a chunk of Ukraine now, get a peace treaty, then try again in a few years, after he has rebuilt his military. NATO moving into Western Ukraine would end the possibility of bringing Ukraine into Putin's sphere of influence. It would be a disaster as far as he is concerned. They could easily move up to the Dnipro without meeting any resistance. It would pretty much end Putin's hopes of gaining further ground within Ukraine. What would prevent the Belarus forces from invading the Baltic States (instead of Russian forces)? Lukashenko is looking out for himself. He is more invested in having his own country to rule than to rebuild the Russian empire. What benefit is there for Belarus to go to war? He will obviously try to not cross Putin, but to voluntarily lead a charge against a NATO country with his own troops at the command of Putin is a step too far. He hasn't even joined the war against Ukraine, although Putin has likely pressured him to do so. Belarus joining the war would be the signal to NATO that the war is no longer a localized conflict but spreading to multiple countries, and possibly the beginning stage of WW3. Poland would not just sit idly by and they have a stronger military than Belarus. Also note that Belarus is a large country. Just moving tanks from one side of the country to the other by train would take some effort. You can't just stage an army for an invasion and not be seen. I think it is much more likely that Russia will covertly send saboteurs over the border to try to destabilize the Baltics than to lead an open assault. But they have an uphill battle because even the Russian nationality people living in the Baltics would rather remain in the EU and keep their higher standard of living. It is hard to destabilize a country where the citizens are content. |
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USA
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Posted: 3/29/2024 12:02:01 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MFP_4073: my kinda humorous take on that : my brother was a US military officer for 25+ years. did a bunch of joint staff assignments in France, Germany, Belgium etc he said -- whenever dealing with the Europeans -- you gotta stop the arguments when they try to bust out the 'See you have to go back to 1875 to fully understand...' line of discussion / BS stop then dead in their tracks. because they will try to obfuscate -- to NO END -- the current issues by taking you on a European History lesson to 'educate you' on why they are doing x, Y, or Z EXACTLY what Putin did with Tucker Carlson last month for instance his point -- was basically -- I'll go back 50 years -- MAYBE to the end of WW2. I am not discussing boundaries from 1845 and how that affects current affairs. Yes -- European History is complicated and VERY interesting. Culturally, geographically, ethnically, etc. But there HAS to be a limit at what point we say -- that's IRRELEVANT to the discussion at hand. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MFP_4073: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By Prime:
"We're absolutely not going to attack Europe or NATO, that's ridiculous. We only defend our people on our historical lands." .......  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbRJST3CADgAnd Finland, and Poland at a minimum. And Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Czechia, etc, etc, etc. my kinda humorous take on that : my brother was a US military officer for 25+ years. did a bunch of joint staff assignments in France, Germany, Belgium etc he said -- whenever dealing with the Europeans -- you gotta stop the arguments when they try to bust out the 'See you have to go back to 1875 to fully understand...' line of discussion / BS stop then dead in their tracks. because they will try to obfuscate -- to NO END -- the current issues by taking you on a European History lesson to 'educate you' on why they are doing x, Y, or Z EXACTLY what Putin did with Tucker Carlson last month for instance his point -- was basically -- I'll go back 50 years -- MAYBE to the end of WW2. I am not discussing boundaries from 1845 and how that affects current affairs. Yes -- European History is complicated and VERY interesting. Culturally, geographically, ethnically, etc. But there HAS to be a limit at what point we say -- that's IRRELEVANT to the discussion at hand. Hungary, Czechia, Slovakia have never been historic Russian lands. Together with Transylvania (Romania), they have been part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Putin talks about the Carpathians as what he would prefer to be the defensible border of the Russian Empire. Finland, Poland, Romania may have had border disputes, but again were not part of Russia or the Soviet Union. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 12:02:16 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By iggy1337: And that's still more palatable for Russians than a scenario where it was shotdown by Ukrainians Western weapons Hmm an Panstir actually hitting a target, I'm not sure I'm buying it. |
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USA
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Posted: 3/29/2024 12:09:53 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By JohnnyC: One of the things the Russians actually do really really well are their ejection seats. They work exceptionally well at almost any attitude and any attitude except inverted on the deck (at least in their modern fighters). Unless he was dead before punching out, the chances are high that he at least made it out of the jet and under canopy. What happened to him after that is anyone's guess. One of the reasons that the Patriot is so deadly to enemy air assets is because they have a really nasty habit of not giving the guy a chance to punch out well before the ejection sequence is even the thought of a fart in the wind. Kind of hard to pull a handle when you're nothing more than the output side of a slapchop. Really, unless a pilot gives it a yank as soon as his RWR goes off, he's gonna be a greasy spot in the sky.... Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By JohnnyC: Originally Posted By treelow: The Russians claim he ejected and was rescued. So, yeah, he probably rode it in or died when his ejection seat or chute failed. One of the things the Russians actually do really really well are their ejection seats. They work exceptionally well at almost any attitude and any attitude except inverted on the deck (at least in their modern fighters). Unless he was dead before punching out, the chances are high that he at least made it out of the jet and under canopy. What happened to him after that is anyone's guess. One of the reasons that the Patriot is so deadly to enemy air assets is because they have a really nasty habit of not giving the guy a chance to punch out well before the ejection sequence is even the thought of a fart in the wind. Kind of hard to pull a handle when you're nothing more than the output side of a slapchop. Really, unless a pilot gives it a yank as soon as his RWR goes off, he's gonna be a greasy spot in the sky.... I've heard a rumor that they have used some kind of alcohol in the ejection seats of the old MIG-21s and mobiks were known to take a "little" here and there back in Soviet times to have a good time. So, they may not have worked as designed every time
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USA
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Posted: 3/29/2024 12:17:25 PM EDT
[#15]
  Jordanian Challenger-1 MBTs. 32.03219717, 36.18843130 It would require a lot of work and money to bring them back into running condition.  |
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WY, USA
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Posted: 3/29/2024 12:31:12 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Holy shit, did he see a snake in the grass? If that was the reason, I'm OK with that. I REALLY FUCKING HATE SNAKES
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Posted: 3/29/2024 12:31:36 PM EDT
[Last Edit: doc540]
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJ2Ob1yWoAEIO00?format=jpg&name=small Air defense - where is it? https://x.com/ukraine_map/status/1773732097607209147?s=20 |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 12:34:43 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By doc540: Air defense - where is it? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By doc540: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJ2Ob1yWoAEIO00?format=jpg&name=small Air defense - where is it? Only Patriot can shoot those down, not enough Patriots in Ukraine to cover all areas. Simple as that. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 12:36:45 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Only Patriot can shoot those down, not enough Patriots in Ukraine to cover all areas. Simple as that. Thanks. That begs the questions: "How important is the power generated from this dam, and how many of these weapons do the orcs still have in their arsenal?" |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 12:38:52 PM EDT
[#20]
From the information war front
 Russian Bots and ESPN - A New Disinformation Tactic |
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USA
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Posted: 3/29/2024 12:57:21 PM EDT
[#21]
 UGVs with AGS 17 by the Orcs on the Bahmut front |
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OK, USA
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Posted: 3/29/2024 1:18:35 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By _disconnector_: It's not about upsetting the Russians - it's about Biden's re-election. The old fart will get blamed if gas prices spike and it's already going to be a close election. Typical modern democrat behavior - throw the innocent under the bus for an opportunity to hold on to power. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By _disconnector_: Originally Posted By lorazepam: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJrZYU1bEAAmYpd?format=png&name=small Yeah, that's how you lose wars. Bunch of fucking idiots. "It's ok if russia blows up your own country, but please don't blow up their shit, you might upset them. This is a spot-on quote that shouldn't be missed. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 1:34:47 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By strykr: Hungary, Czechia, Slovakia have never been historic Russian lands. Together with Transylvania (Romania), they have been part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Putin talks about the Carpathians as what he would prefer to be the defensible border of the Russian Empire. Finland, Poland, Romania may have had border disputes, but again were not part of Russia or the Soviet Union. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By strykr: Originally Posted By MFP_4073: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By Prime:
"We're absolutely not going to attack Europe or NATO, that's ridiculous. We only defend our people on our historical lands." ....... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbRJST3CADgAnd Finland, and Poland at a minimum. And Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Czechia, etc, etc, etc. my kinda humorous take on that : my brother was a US military officer for 25+ years. did a bunch of joint staff assignments in France, Germany, Belgium etc he said -- whenever dealing with the Europeans -- you gotta stop the arguments when they try to bust out the 'See you have to go back to 1875 to fully understand...' line of discussion / BS stop then dead in their tracks. because they will try to obfuscate -- to NO END -- the current issues by taking you on a European History lesson to 'educate you' on why they are doing x, Y, or Z EXACTLY what Putin did with Tucker Carlson last month for instance his point -- was basically -- I'll go back 50 years -- MAYBE to the end of WW2. I am not discussing boundaries from 1845 and how that affects current affairs. Yes -- European History is complicated and VERY interesting. Culturally, geographically, ethnically, etc. But there HAS to be a limit at what point we say -- that's IRRELEVANT to the discussion at hand. Hungary, Czechia, Slovakia have never been historic Russian lands. Together with Transylvania (Romania), they have been part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Putin talks about the Carpathians as what he would prefer to be the defensible border of the Russian Empire. Finland, Poland, Romania may have had border disputes, but again were not part of Russia or the Soviet Union. Finland and Poland were absolutely parts of the Russian Empire for a few hundred years up until the 1917 Revolution. Putin has also said that the breakup of the Soviet Union was “the biggest tragedy in modern history.” I think the concept of “buffer states” is still very much in his lexicon. Controlling Romania and Bulgaria is also necessary to completely dominate the Black Sea. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 2:01:58 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Man, that's crazy talk. Havnt you seen the Belarussian SF vids??!! Those dudes will do a backflip and destroy a NATO tank with a thrown shovel all without his cigarette going out... Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: The Belarus armed forces are in no shape for a major military action beyond their borders, primarily a lack of logistic capability. Also, Belarus would be full-on hammered as soon as they crossed the border by Polish, Swedish, and likely British air plus whatever rotating NATO brigades are on rotation there. It would be a bloodbath, as I have serious questions on the training and combat capabilities of the Belarus armed forces. Man, that's crazy talk. Havnt you seen the Belarussian SF vids??!! Those dudes will do a backflip and destroy a NATO tank with a thrown shovel all without his cigarette going out... I don't know, the shovel trick LOOKS impressive; but I've got this troubling feeling that if he got close enough to an M1 tank to try it he would discover how the term "crunchies" came about!
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OH, USA
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Posted: 3/29/2024 2:05:07 PM EDT
[#25]
There's a post on X that there were ammo dump attacks last night in Russian rear areas , killing almost 2k people. Guy who posted it has a decent-ish track record.
Will be interesting to see. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 2:05:58 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: They certainly put a nice spin on it. But it seems that all along the "plan" was to quickly pull out all US personnel and assist Ukraine gov't to surrender and flee. They grudgingly and very reluctantly crept back and started to help Ukraine only after Ukraine saved themselves. And now they are trying to say this was the plan...  The State Department and much of the Foreign Policy establishment are the kind of folks who talk up how good they are at something they seem suspiciously clueless about and claim they "meant to do that" when they break or set fire to something they were working on!
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USA
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Posted: 3/29/2024 2:08:11 PM EDT
[Last Edit: strykr]
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Finland and Poland were absolutely parts of the Russian Empire for a few hundred years up until the 1917 Revolution. Putin has also said that the breakup of the Soviet Union was "the biggest tragedy in modern history." I think the concept of "buffer states" is still very much in his lexicon. Controlling Romania and Bulgaria is also necessary to completely dominate the Black Sea. That's what I get for running my mouth Yet I would not call a military occupation of Poland the same as Russian historic lands. They were not thought of as being Russians the same way as Ukrainians were.The Baltics, however, were part of the Soviet Union, so I think his threats are more aimed at them, not the other Eastern European countries. It also seems clear that Putin would much prefer to see Eastern Europe in the role of buffer states, same as it was during the Soviet Union. But I do believe the purpose of his nuclear threats is to keep NATO away. He thinks he can grind down Ukraine if the rest of Europe stays on the sidelines. The last thing he wants is more involvement by the EU/NATO, so he threatens nuclear escalation to try to force them into inaction. Sadly, it seems to be working to some extent, as we see how tepid Germany is. Right now, Russia is bogged down in Ukraine and the EU/NATO can crank up the heat on Russia simply by controlling the amount of support. I do think we would see a much different response from Europe if they actually felt threatened by Russia. As much as we like to make fun of the French when it comes to war, I think Macron is the key EU leader who is beginning to wake up and understands what is at stake here. Perhaps things would be different if the UK was part of the EU still. |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 3/29/2024 2:12:41 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJ1x-3kWEAA1Kfs?format=jpg&name=medium https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJ1yAQVWcAAeXg3?format=jpg&name=900x900 It would require a lot of work and money to bring them back into running condition. There's enough parts in there for at least.....10 tanks 
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USA
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Posted: 3/29/2024 2:13:21 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By strykr: Hungary, Czechia, Slovakia have never been historic Russian lands. Together with Transylvania (Romania), they have been part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Putin talks about the Carpathians as what he would prefer to be the defensible border of the Russian Empire. Finland, Poland, Romania may have had border disputes, but again were not part of Russia or the Soviet Union. Finland and most of Poland were ruled by the Tsars. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 2:13:56 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJ1x-3kWEAA1Kfs?format=jpg&name=medium https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJ1yAQVWcAAeXg3?format=jpg&name=900x900 It would require a lot of work and money to bring them back into running condition. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJ1x-3kWEAA1Kfs?format=jpg&name=medium https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJ1yAQVWcAAeXg3?format=jpg&name=900x900 Jordanian Challenger-1 MBTs. 32.03219717, 36.18843130 It would require a lot of work and money to bring them back into running condition. To be fair, some of those hulls are American M48s and M60-series. Having said that, with the right set of mechanics and the right tools, you'd be amazed how many operational tanks you could get out of that junkpile, and with a lot less effort than you would guess. There are benefits to junking things in the desert somewhere as opposed to the Philippines or the outskirts of Cleveland, Ohio! |
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USA
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Posted: 3/29/2024 2:28:28 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Not much traffic in this thread recently. What's up with that? Solovyov is advocating for concealed carry. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gI0-609l9MNow, violent crime is predominately a cultural phenomenon. Knowing Russia's culture, what do you think will happen?  Same show, different clip. Duma member promoting population removal. Russians DGAF about any stinkin' Geneva Convention. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_s7idMA321kSolovyov again, wipe out Ukrainian cities. One makes the point that the Russian population are coming around to this way of thinking. So when people say 'don't take Solovyov seriously, he's just playing a role,' I that's wrong. He's the Goebbels to Putin's Hitler. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZglQ33MOgWwPutin’s Goebbels equivalent is Simonyam, Solovyov is just part of her stable of “talent”. That’s why Budanov has tried to kill her at least once. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 2:31:03 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Capta]
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By strykr: That's what I get for running my mouth Yet I would not call a military occupation of Poland the same as Russian historic lands. They were not thought of as being Russians the same way as Ukrainians were.The Baltics, however, were part of the Soviet Union, so I think his threats are more aimed at them, not the other Eastern European countries. It also seems clear that Putin would much prefer to see Eastern Europe in the role of buffer states, same as it was during the Soviet Union. But I do believe the purpose of his nuclear threats is to keep NATO away. He thinks he can grind down Ukraine if the rest of Europe stays on the sidelines. The last thing he wants is more involvement by the EU/NATO, so he threatens nuclear escalation to try to force them into inaction. Sadly, it seems to be working to some extent, as we see how tepid Germany is. Right now, Russia is bogged down in Ukraine and the EU/NATO can crank up the heat on Russia simply by controlling the amount of support. I do think we would see a much different response from Europe if they actually felt threatened by Russia. As much as we like to make fun of the French when it comes to war, I think Macron is the key EU leader who is beginning to wake up and understands what is at stake here. Perhaps things would be different if the UK was part of the EU still. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By strykr: Originally Posted By Capta: Finland and Poland were absolutely parts of the Russian Empire for a few hundred years up until the 1917 Revolution. Putin has also said that the breakup of the Soviet Union was "the biggest tragedy in modern history." I think the concept of "buffer states" is still very much in his lexicon. Controlling Romania and Bulgaria is also necessary to completely dominate the Black Sea. That's what I get for running my mouth Yet I would not call a military occupation of Poland the same as Russian historic lands. They were not thought of as being Russians the same way as Ukrainians were.The Baltics, however, were part of the Soviet Union, so I think his threats are more aimed at them, not the other Eastern European countries. It also seems clear that Putin would much prefer to see Eastern Europe in the role of buffer states, same as it was during the Soviet Union. But I do believe the purpose of his nuclear threats is to keep NATO away. He thinks he can grind down Ukraine if the rest of Europe stays on the sidelines. The last thing he wants is more involvement by the EU/NATO, so he threatens nuclear escalation to try to force them into inaction. Sadly, it seems to be working to some extent, as we see how tepid Germany is. Right now, Russia is bogged down in Ukraine and the EU/NATO can crank up the heat on Russia simply by controlling the amount of support. I do think we would see a much different response from Europe if they actually felt threatened by Russia. As much as we like to make fun of the French when it comes to war, I think Macron is the key EU leader who is beginning to wake up and understands what is at stake here. Perhaps things would be different if the UK was part of the EU still. There are a couple of important factors with Poland and Finland. First, prior to the early 1800s, the Russian Empire wasn’t nearly as concerned about what we would call “Russification” today. Finland, if not Poland, was generally a loyal part of the Empire, while retaining their own customs and language. In the early to mid 1800s, Russian Imperialism took a much more chauvinist path, increasingly demanding the full Russification of culture, language, and religion. Finnish (and Polish) resistance grew exponentially as pressure to Russianize increased. This culminated in violent suppression and violent resistance, ultimately resulting in both breaking away from Russia at the first best opportunity. Russia (I mean “the USSR”) almost immediately tried to recapture Poland in 1920-21 and got their teeth kicked in. And of course they tried with Finland in another 20 years and got their teeth kicked in too until they ultimately sort of succeeded. Second, during a lot of Poland and Finland’s imperial occupation, Russia was focused heavily on expanding to the Pacific. If they’d run into stiff resistance in the east and been stopped, IMO it’s likely that the western imperial possessions would’ve gotten more pressure earlier to Russianize. One thing the war should make clear by now is that there is an unbroken and completely consistent chain of Russian Imperialist policy going back hundreds of years. The USSR changed nothing and in fact was the zenith of Russian Imperialism. Russia and France have some interesting Imperial parallels as opposed to Britain and arguably the US. France and Russia generally demanded much more “Francification/Russification” throughout their empires. Language, religion, and culture. Britain did not, their policy was “pay your taxes and allow for commercial exploitation/interchange” but otherwise they didn’t worry too much about remaking local societies in their image. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 2:45:12 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By strykr: That's what I get for running my mouth Yet I would not call a military occupation of Poland the same as Russian historic lands. They were not thought of as being Russians the same way as Ukrainians were.The Baltics, however, were part of the Soviet Union, so I think his threats are more aimed at them, not the other Eastern European countries. It also seems clear that Putin would much prefer to see Eastern Europe in the role of buffer states, same as it was during the Soviet Union. But I do believe the purpose of his nuclear threats is to keep NATO away. He thinks he can grind down Ukraine if the rest of Europe stays on the sidelines. The last thing he wants is more involvement by the EU/NATO, so he threatens nuclear escalation to try to force them into inaction. Sadly, it seems to be working to some extent, as we see how tepid Germany is. Right now, Russia is bogged down in Ukraine and the EU/NATO can crank up the heat on Russia simply by controlling the amount of support. I do think we would see a much different response from Europe if they actually felt threatened by Russia. As much as we like to make fun of the French when it comes to war, I think Macron is the key EU leader who is beginning to wake up and understands what is at stake here. Perhaps things would be different if the UK was part of the EU still. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By strykr: Originally Posted By Capta: Finland and Poland were absolutely parts of the Russian Empire for a few hundred years up until the 1917 Revolution. Putin has also said that the breakup of the Soviet Union was "the biggest tragedy in modern history." I think the concept of "buffer states" is still very much in his lexicon. Controlling Romania and Bulgaria is also necessary to completely dominate the Black Sea. That's what I get for running my mouth Yet I would not call a military occupation of Poland the same as Russian historic lands. They were not thought of as being Russians the same way as Ukrainians were.The Baltics, however, were part of the Soviet Union, so I think his threats are more aimed at them, not the other Eastern European countries. It also seems clear that Putin would much prefer to see Eastern Europe in the role of buffer states, same as it was during the Soviet Union. But I do believe the purpose of his nuclear threats is to keep NATO away. He thinks he can grind down Ukraine if the rest of Europe stays on the sidelines. The last thing he wants is more involvement by the EU/NATO, so he threatens nuclear escalation to try to force them into inaction. Sadly, it seems to be working to some extent, as we see how tepid Germany is. Right now, Russia is bogged down in Ukraine and the EU/NATO can crank up the heat on Russia simply by controlling the amount of support. I do think we would see a much different response from Europe if they actually felt threatened by Russia. As much as we like to make fun of the French when it comes to war, I think Macron is the key EU leader who is beginning to wake up and understands what is at stake here. Perhaps things would be different if the UK was part of the EU still. My overall perspective is that Russia views the sovereignty and territorial integrity of most Eastern European countries as being arbitrary and subject to change. Yet, Russian views towards Ukraine and Belarus are several degrees more radical, as Russian nationalists view them and their people as being integral parts of the Russian nation. In their view, Ukrainians and Belarusians are their 'little brothers' who speak dialects of Russian and can only naturally exist in a very close relationship with Russia, if not the same state. Ukraine and Belarus occupy the 'near abroad,' rendering them different to 'actual' foreign countries in the minds of the Russians. The best comparison I can think of is Ireland in relation to Imperial Britain, or perhaps French Algeria. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 2:52:17 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By strykr: That's what I get for running my mouth Yet I would not call a military occupation of Poland the same as Russian historic lands. They were not thought of as being Russians the same way as Ukrainians were.The Baltics, however, were part of the Soviet Union, so I think his threats are more aimed at them, not the other Eastern European countries. It also seems clear that Putin would much prefer to see Eastern Europe in the role of buffer states, same as it was during the Soviet Union. But I do believe the purpose of his nuclear threats is to keep NATO away. He thinks he can grind down Ukraine if the rest of Europe stays on the sidelines. The last thing he wants is more involvement by the EU/NATO, so he threatens nuclear escalation to try to force them into inaction. Sadly, it seems to be working to some extent, as we see how tepid Germany is. Right now, Russia is bogged down in Ukraine and the EU/NATO can crank up the heat on Russia simply by controlling the amount of support. I do think we would see a much different response from Europe if they actually felt threatened by Russia. As much as we like to make fun of the French when it comes to war, I think Macron is the key EU leader who is beginning to wake up and understands what is at stake here. Perhaps things would be different if the UK was part of the EU still. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By strykr: Originally Posted By Capta: Finland and Poland were absolutely parts of the Russian Empire for a few hundred years up until the 1917 Revolution. Putin has also said that the breakup of the Soviet Union was "the biggest tragedy in modern history." I think the concept of "buffer states" is still very much in his lexicon. Controlling Romania and Bulgaria is also necessary to completely dominate the Black Sea. That's what I get for running my mouth Yet I would not call a military occupation of Poland the same as Russian historic lands. They were not thought of as being Russians the same way as Ukrainians were.The Baltics, however, were part of the Soviet Union, so I think his threats are more aimed at them, not the other Eastern European countries. It also seems clear that Putin would much prefer to see Eastern Europe in the role of buffer states, same as it was during the Soviet Union. But I do believe the purpose of his nuclear threats is to keep NATO away. He thinks he can grind down Ukraine if the rest of Europe stays on the sidelines. The last thing he wants is more involvement by the EU/NATO, so he threatens nuclear escalation to try to force them into inaction. Sadly, it seems to be working to some extent, as we see how tepid Germany is. Right now, Russia is bogged down in Ukraine and the EU/NATO can crank up the heat on Russia simply by controlling the amount of support. I do think we would see a much different response from Europe if they actually felt threatened by Russia. As much as we like to make fun of the French when it comes to war, I think Macron is the key EU leader who is beginning to wake up and understands what is at stake here. Perhaps things would be different if the UK was part of the EU still. I think it’s a mistake to believe that Russia doesn’t have its sights set beyond actual former Russian imperial territory. I mentioned it in an earlier post, but the Russians right now are (from their POV) in an incredibly weak and insecure position. The Russian psyche has always has a pathological sense of insecurity and inferiority to the west, together with the simultaneous ability to attack and control everyone around them in the name of security. At the pinnacle of the USSR (effectively the Russian Empire) they owned all their breakaway states and more besides. They had a “buffer” to secure the Empire, but that doesn’t mean they were content to stop there. The same old process of Russification was being practiced intensely in their eastern European “buffer states.” They simply didn’t have enough time to complete it. If they did, all those “buffer states” would’ve become the newest provinces of the Empire, and then they would need new “buffer states.” Point is, Putin is looking back to the USSR when Russia was “secure.” They want to get back to that, he just isn’t saying so outright. |
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VA, USA
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Posted: 3/29/2024 3:06:14 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By strykr: Hungary, Czechia, Slovakia have never been historic Russian lands. Together with Transylvania (Romania), they have been part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Putin talks about the Carpathians as what he would prefer to be the defensible border of the Russian Empire. Finland, Poland, Romania may have had border disputes, but again were not part of Russia or the Soviet Union. Not to be the devil's advocate, but a chunk of Poland was under Russian control way in the Monarchy times in the 19th century: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Partition And again in 1939, when Poland was split into two with the Molotoff Pact. (Signed in Kremlin, no less). For example the Polish town Brest was once again under Russian control as it was in the 19th century and the famous Fortress of Brest, built by Russians way back once again became theirs and a border town. It's notable because when the June 22nd invasion happened, the Fortress of Brest, located in the Polish territory and controlled by Russians held out for a long time in an encirclement. There was a movie made about it:  ????????? ???????? (2010) |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 3:13:29 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: There are a couple of important factors with Poland and Finland. First, prior to the early 1800s, the Russian Empire wasn't nearly as concerned about what we would call "Russification" today. Finland, if not Poland, was generally a loyal part of the Empire, while retaining their own customs and language. In the early to mid 1800s, Russian Imperialism took a much more chauvinist path, increasingly demanding the full Russification of culture, language, and religion. Finnish (and Polish) resistance grew exponentially as pressure to Russianize increased. This culminated in violent suppression and violent resistance, ultimately resulting in both breaking away from Russia at the first best opportunity. Russia (I mean "the USSR") almost immediately tried to recapture Poland in 1920-21 and got their teeth kicked in. And of course they tried with Finland in another 20 years and got their teeth kicked in too until they ultimately sort of succeeded. Second, during a lot of Poland and Finland's imperial occupation, Russia was focused heavily on expanding to the Pacific. If they'd run into stiff resistance in the east and been stopped, IMO it's likely that the western imperial possessions would've gotten more pressure earlier to Russianize. One thing the war should make clear by now is that there is an unbroken and completely consistent chain of Russian Imperialist policy going back hundreds of years. The USSR changed nothing and in fact was the zenith of Russian Imperialism. Russia and France have some interesting Imperial parallels as opposed to Britain and arguably the US. France and Russia generally demanded much more "Francification/Russification" throughout their empires. Language, religion, and culture. Britain did not, their policy was "pay your taxes and allow for commercial exploitation/interchange" but otherwise they didn't worry too much about remaking local societies in their image. The imperialist policy going back hundreds of years applies most European countries, but WW1 and WW2 showed us where ultimately the expansionist policies end. Hence why the UN was created with the goal of abolishing such methods, although in hindsight it failed at its objectives. There have been many nation states that were born in the 1800s so I do not think Russia would have ultimately been successful at Russification at that late age. There were also Poles and Ukrainians living in the Austro-Hungarian empire where they could maintain their national identity and enjoy more freedom. As much as I disagree with Putin, I must admit that he is playing the EU like a fiddle. He can make his arguments seem reasonable and scary at the same time. When he invaded Crimea in 2014 he used the same reasoning that they are historic Russian lands. At the time, the rest of the world could kinda see where he is coming from with that argument. If he offered peace in exchange for keeping Crimea, I think he could have walked away with that agreement. It is no surprise that he is using the same ambiguous claim to try to push his claims as far as possible. However, the argument that sounded reasonable for Sevastopol sounds borderline delusional when he is talking about invading multiple other countries. Yet, after all this, if he offered peace for land, I still think he could make that agreement. He is just negotiating how far he can push the envelope. It has nothing to do with history, but power. He is going to keep advancing until he gets pushed back. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 3:30:02 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Saltwater-Hillbilly]
[#37]
Streiff's latest update on Redstate. I began posting these so we could have something that the "10% for the big guy crowd" could understand it from a trusted source outside of the mainstream to help them to understand that curb-stomping Putin's regime is in all of our interest; I've continued to post them because they are really good!
Putin's War Week 109
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Posted: 3/29/2024 3:36:08 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Streiff's latest update on Redstate. I began posting these so we could have something that the "10% for the big guy crowd" could understand it from a trusted source outside of the mainstream to help them to understand that curb-stomping Putin's regime is in all of our interest; I've continued to post them because they are really good! Putin's War Week 109If logic and patience (with a conversation) is involved they won’t listen. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 3:40:10 PM EDT
[#39]
Positional warfare strategy: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/positional-warfare-alexander-svechin%E2%80%99s-strategy
ISW assessment for March 28th. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-28-2024 |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 3:57:32 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Poland! You scary!! |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 3:58:16 PM EDT
[#41]
There is no need to mobilize another 500,000 people. This figure is reduced, - Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Sirskyi. ▪️The mobilized do not immediately go to the front: as of February 2024, about 84% of the total number of people were trained in the centers; ▪️The advantage of the Russian Federation in terms of ammunition released is about 6:1. It was just a few days ago; ▪️The situation at the front is really difficult, but we are regaining more positions than we are losing. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 4:08:39 PM EDT
[#42]
— Belgium allocates 100 million euros to Ukraine for F-16 maintenance; — France is negotiating the return of its weapons from Arab countries to Ukraine, namely: • Saudi Arabia - 156 self-propelled howitzers "Caesar" • Qatar - 20 155-mm self-propelled guns AMX F3 • UAE – SCALP cruise missiles — It turns out that Ukraine attracted $9 billion in external financing in March: • EU — $4.9 billion; • Canada — $1.5 billion; • Japan—$1.1 billion; • IMF — $880 million; • Great Britain — $515 million." |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 4:18:24 PM EDT
[#43]
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Posted: 3/29/2024 4:21:51 PM EDT
[#44]
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Posted: 3/29/2024 4:31:27 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#45]
was possible due to the reduction of missile's fuel tank.  |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 4:33:30 PM EDT
[#46]
1 minute ago, incoming Ukrainian UAVs to Russian territory.
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Posted: 3/29/2024 4:52:47 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By strykr: Hungary, Czechia, Slovakia have never been historic Russian lands. Together with Transylvania (Romania), they have been part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Putin talks about the Carpathians as what he would prefer to be the defensible border of the Russian Empire. Finland, Poland, Romania may have had border disputes, but again were not part of Russia or the Soviet Union. Finland was most definitely part of czarist imperial Russia. They fought their own war of independence from Russia when the Czar was overthrown. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 4:58:12 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#48]
Go for it.
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Posted: 3/29/2024 5:09:09 PM EDT
[#49]
The risk of escalation related to the supply of long-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles to Ukraine is not as high as it used to be, U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Charles Brown said on March 28, according to Defense One. After months of deliberation, the U.S. delivered ATACMS missiles to Ukraine in October 2023, but only the older model with a range of 165 kilometers. Newer variants of ATACMS have a maximum range of around 300 kilometers and have so far not been provided to Ukraine. The general said that due to Russia's restrained response to a series of recent Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, the Pentagon has adjusted "its analysis on the risk of sending ATACMS." "The risk of escalation is not as high as maybe it was at the beginning," Brown told reporters. The likelihood of "escalation" is based on different capabilities and different actions, the general said, adding that the Pentagon "pays attention" to them. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 5:17:20 PM EDT
[#50]
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