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Posted: 3/19/2024 10:08:12 PM EDT
Hi guys...

Ever meet someone who has a Taurus model 85 revolver in .38 Special and half a box of cartridges, who then claims "I'm ready for social upheaval.  I'm prepared.  I have a gun!"?  Does this sound kind of short sighted and ignorant to you?  Well, to use that analogy, I suspect a LOT of people are doing the same thing with savings and retirement.  "I put $1000 in my IRA EVERY YEAR!".  Yeah, that's the same as the Taurus guy above....  

This post is gonna run with the financial theme....  No flames intended.  But If I make anyone uncomfortable,  GOOD!  I'm hoping it causes some thought, and better yet, some action.... This is, marginally, a SHTF discussion.  If you cannot cover rent/mortgage, insurance, food and medicines, it is a personal and ugly situation.  Therefore, I'd argue finance IS preparedness...  I'm going to dramatically over simplify.  Its done in the hopes of clarity, and because I dont want to get tied down in tiny details.  To run with the Taurus example above, we could argue why AR15s are better than a Ruger Mini 14, but realistically speaking, isn't the Ruger Mini owner with ten mags and 800 rounds of 5.56 really and truly better off than the Taurus guy (even if there are better options out there)?  Im simplifying....

I'm mid 50"s.  Retirement is on the horizon and I've got two or three years to the finish line.  And since many of my acquaintances are of a similar age, this is a common discussion.  I'm seeing some trends.  And some serious pitfall traps...

We, as people, tend to 'absorb' assumptions.  We grow up, see parents, absorb behavior.    Many of us grew up with grandparents who worked at the mill until 65, and then retired.  Dad worked for the state and retired at 55.  We just tend to often sort of make some assumptions and think "hey, I'll work to 55 or 58 and retire too".  For many of of, its not gonna happen... Ever....

Many Americans are woefully ignorant. I hear many who dont really know the difference between a pension and their 401k....  Apologies if I oversimplify.  No insult intended.

Pension:  Grandpa worked 30 years at the mill.  If he made $50,000 a year the last several years, the employer ran some simple math.  30 years times 2% per year equals 60%.  60% of that $50K final salary meant Grandpa got $30,000 a year from his actual pension.  His pension was a "defined benefit".  His years of service and his salary determined what he got as a pension check.  Add $15 or $20K in social security and Grandpas retirement income was close to his working income.  Time to go fishing or play golf.  All is good...

Here is the problem.  If you are under 50 and dont work for federal or state government in some form, odds are really really high you do NOT have a pension.  People often say "my pension" because any retirement income is viewed as pension.  Sorry, but it isn't so....

overwhelmingly the majority of Americans today do NOT have a pension. pensions are too expensive.  And they are rapidly disappearing. Instead, employers are moving to Defined Contribution plans.  Most of these are 401K's (but there are 403bs and 414Hs and others.  They are all similar).  Really simply, they work like this.  For most people, IF you put money in, the employer kicks money in too.  And there are limits. It varies.  My current employer is kind of typical:  Every dollar I put in, they match to a maximum of 5%. If I make $100,000 and I put 10% into the 401K, the company throws in an additional 5,000 (They matched the first 5%).  

Here is the problem.  Many, if not most, people do not contribute sufficiently.  Many dont contribute AT ALL.  Make $100K, put nothing in 401K, and there is zero contribution for the company to match.  Hey, bonus for them.  They just saved that $5000 from the example above.  Many companies OFFER the 401K, but they dont push too hard.  If you choose not to enroll, they are happy to save thousands thru your ignorance.  

Or for many people,  its "I'll contribute $3,000 a year".  Fair enough.  You put in 3%, so the company kicked in another 3%.  Good news!  You doubled your Money!  And after decades of saving $6000 per year (your 3K and the company match 3K) you've got $150,000 in your 401K.  sounds good.  But if you're the $100,000 earner in the example, you now have sufficient retirement savings to cover 18 months of living expenses.  18  Months.  What about social security?  Yeah, that's a fail.  How far are you going to go on $20 or $25K????  

I'm seeing tons of educated, professional, smart people who are, for the most part, just completely focused on the here and now.  this week.  This month.  Maybe looking one or two years ahead.  But they are hitting 50, sitting down with a financial planner for the first time, talking about retirement goals and getting the bad news:  No.  You can't retire at 55.  You likely can't retire at 67.  You have no pension, you didn't save enough and unless you want to cut your current living expenses from the $100K a year you spend now down to $30K a year (good luck), you're likely working until youre 75....

Retirement traditionally had the infamous "three legged stool":  One leg was Social Security. Another the pension.  And the third was retirement savings.  Pensions dont exist for many.    Social Security is minor:  Its NOT a sufficient retirement income, end of story.  That means YOUR retirement savings will constitute the biggest portion of your retirement income.  

You might be 20s or 30s.  I know its really easy to think "retirement?  Thats 20 years out!  I'll worry about that in a few years".  You dont have them.  Every single year you wait, you loose money and more importantly, you loose time....  You loose compounding....

If I make $100,000 a year, and I want to retire at a very modest 65% of my working income, I need $65,000 per year.  Pension gives me nothing.  I dont have one.  Social security wont kick in until I'm 67 (so much for retiring at 55 like Dad), and when it does, its a minor $15,000 a year for many workers.  Call it $20,000 to be generous.  I need $65K, Social Security gives me $20K, so math tells me I need the other $45K from retirement savings....

You've got $250,000 in your 401K.  Sounds like a lot, until you realize that drawing $45,000 a year out of that means you'll totally exhaust the whole savings in 5 or 6 years.  Gone.  You retired at 67, used your savings to supplement Soc Sec and now you hit 74, 75 and its gone, leaving you trying to figure out how to pay for life on $20,000 a year.  Thats pretty damn grim....  That is a definite SHTF event.  Only its not an event, that happens once and is gone like a flood or a hurricane.  Its more of a condition of life, a permanent situation.  Trying to live the next 20 years on $20K a year.....

How can we then come up with the $40,000 a year on a regular, recurring basis.  There is an over-simplified theory I dont especially like, but I'll use it if only for clarity:  Many investment professionals claim you can draw 3.5 to 4%  a year from your portfolio.  If that is correct, $1,000,000 x 4% = $40,000 per year.  Theoretically, you can draw $40K a year  indefinitely IF you have a million dollar nest egg.  That number sounds like a lot of money to most people (except the usual General Discussion posters, who are all 6'3" tall, hung like a moose,  drive a Porsche and have a $300,000 salary).  However, the million dollar portfolio AND social security are giving you a modest $60,000 a year retirement income. Thats not yatching and jet setting retirement....  Its taking one million damn dollars to fund a modest retirement....  let that settle in.

How the hell can you acquire a million dollar portfolio?   Kind of simple really.  Start young.  Really young.  Like 19, 20, 21.  Every single year, contribute 12, 15, 18% of your income to your 401K and your IRAs.  Do it every year.   year after year.   I know 15% sounds huge.  Thats money that could be spent on trucks, boats, optics, houses and trips to Cancun.  I guess its all about choices.  Many of your neighbors choose to spend their entire check on restaurants and chrome wheels.  You stayed home, skipped the restaurant and saved money for a generator.  This is the same thing....  What do you want more?  Another lousy dinner at Olive Garden, or the SHTF preps?  This is a prep...

This is a prepping site. Most of us here tend to have a longer view than the thundering herd of sheeple.  I simply want to draw attention to a big issue:  Most of us will not have the old school pension to rely on.  Many of us work jobs that are simply too strenuous to do when we are 70, 75, 80.    A lack of income at that age is critical....  This whole retirement issue is such an immensely long time horizon that many just ignore it. Waiting until your 42 to start saving is too damn late...

If you are one of the majority of Americans who dont contribute to 401K or IRA, START NOW.  No, its not guaranteed.   Yes there are risks.  Its life....

Undoubtedly, someone will get their panties in a twist over how the real retirement withdrawal should be 2.5%, or how we should use a flexible withdrawal strategy, or or or.....   I dont care.   Its kind of like I dont care if you choose an AR15, a Ruger Mini 14 or a pistol Caliber carbine.  I just dont care.  Yup, there are advantages and disadvantages, and none of it matters because ANY of them are better than no firearm at all.  Likewise, maybe you have $900,000 or perhaps its $2,000,000.  Doesn't matter:  Aren't BOTH of those far better than the 72 year old with zero savings trying to live on $18,000 a year social security and $15 per hour part time at Walmart???

No rocket science here.  Many of you get it.  I'm just trying to potentially open the eyes of those who dont yet get it.   I'm looking at 63 year old friends with no savings who are buying $80,000 pontoon boats on with $750 per month payments.  And no retirement options.  And 59 year old friends who just took 30 year mortgages that max out their monthly income.  Apparently, they think working full time at 89 years of age to pay the mortgage is a good retirement plan...

Think it over.  Plan accordingly.  There isn't a company pension to take care of you.  And you're an idiot if you think the likes of Biden and company can somehow make it all work out...  Its your future....





Link Posted: 3/20/2024 12:51:57 AM EDT
[#1]
I have had similar conversations with people over the years.

The financial mindset I saw from these people falls into a few different camps:

-One group was, "I plan on dying young / I will just wait for the Aliens to zap us off the planet" (actually heard that quote).  And to some extent  a person can control that, until they screw up that plan and then live to an old age being crippled for the rest of their life not doing anything.

-Another group was, "Well, if the bank wants to give me the money; that's on them".  It is just like the movie scene from Goodfellas where they force the owner to turn over the ownership control of the restaurant to them, steal everything from it, loan/leverage every vendor to get more to steal and when no one will work with them anymore; burn it down for what is left of the insurance payout that still remains.  No "F" given, don't view it as theirs and they got what they want for the time.  Rinse and repeat until every bridge is burnt and they are living off the .gov eating runny noodles using Ketchup as pasta sauce.

-There is the group of people that have the mindset of the neighbor from the Movie "Office Space".  "Peter, what would you do with a million dollars?".   "Hmm I would sit around all day and watch Kung-fu".  "Hell man, you don't need a million dollars for that!".  Some people just don't have goals, wants or extra needs, just as long as their is a: roof, chair, electricity and a TV; all is right with the world.  Pretty low bar.

-Then  there are the people that are doing what they can to prepare for retirement.

The big issue with Retirement is, there is no one right answer, hell there is barely a good answer.  (attempting to save for retirement is better than the three plans above).  For the last Thirty years, people have been trying to take text book examples of what retirement "could" be and trying to bend their life to those examples.  It doesn't always work out that way.  I have seen instances of a woman being widowed at 63, the most money she ever had was about $180,000 and she lived off of that and .gov handouts until 92 (still had $40,000 in the bank and 80 acres).  She lived in a poverty town in the rural mid-west, but hey; she didn't want for anything.  Seen people save multi millions for retirement,  buy every long-term care health policy available, just to end up dead at 58 (still working).

To come back to the beginning of all of this, it could be some people don't want to take the time to figure out what a good retirement answer is for them and they are doing what they can now to have a little bit of life and fun.  Does it help society when they are all begging for help in their 70's, no; does it help pass down generational wealth to their heirs, nope.  We all have to do what we think is best for "us" and hope we made some good decisions along the way.  

Link Posted: 3/20/2024 4:01:50 AM EDT
[#2]
I think it's safe to say that if someone is in their 50's and doesn't know if he has a 401k or a pension then he's probably going to have a tough road ahead
Link Posted: 3/20/2024 4:21:32 AM EDT
[#3]
I'm 42, have 6 years left till I'm eligible to retire/receive a pension.  I truely didn't even start thinking about retirement (ie 62+) till about 6 years ago.  I was contributing to my 457 but not much.  About 6 years ago I went to a coworkers retirement party and chatted with him.  Long story short, he didn't fund his 457, didn't make as much as he could, and wasn't in the best of health.  Needless to say, he's working a other job because he HAS to now.  

That really got me thinking and changing what I was doing.  I've since promoted twice, fully fund my 457 and put around an extra 10k/year towards my mortgage.  My goal when I retired is have around 400k in my 457 and a paid off house.  The wife is a nurse and will have to work another 10ish years, so I figure I'll get another job in the meantime and live off tbat income while putting my pension into retirement accounts.
Link Posted: 3/20/2024 6:06:56 AM EDT
[#4]
Very well stated. Thank you.
Link Posted: 3/20/2024 6:28:40 AM EDT
[#5]
Great post…

52 with a pension and savings. I’m in good shape but working towards better every day.
Link Posted: 3/20/2024 6:35:59 AM EDT
[#6]
Lost me in the 3rd paragraph, I do work for the federal government
Link Posted: 3/20/2024 6:42:47 AM EDT
[#7]
I’ve long been an advocate that money is a prep. This is true for retirements, living within your means, and generally making better choices.

It took me almost a decade between deciding I wanted night vision to actually getting some, because other actual investment needs came first.

This helped a ton when last year my wife was going to be either laid off or decreased Salary. The money we had handy was a cushion that could carry both our lives through the time it took her to find new work. I find myself now in a similar unknown financial position and knowing I can live in the house I do and make ends meet without working for over a year is really freeing me from making a decision based on need rather than want.
Link Posted: 3/20/2024 6:58:28 AM EDT
[#8]
I enjoyed your financial posts like always frozenny. You probably don’t know this but I have a few people in my life who got me thinking about my financial future….and believe it or not, you are one of them. We’ve never met and I don’t know you personally, but I’ve gotten a lot of value from your financial prep posts in the years past.

I started looking at retirement when I was in my late 20s. Luckily, I made some good decisions before then (I was fortunate) so I am in good shape for retirement and getting better.

I’m sure I’ll post later but I recently watched this video. It’s short but it makes some good points. I don’t know the guy and have never watched any of his videos but I think this video has value.


4 Uncomfortable Retirement Truths You Need To Hear
Link Posted: 3/20/2024 8:52:16 AM EDT
[#9]
Link Posted: 3/20/2024 9:23:14 AM EDT
[#10]
This not a "humble brag" but I saw very early on the problem with being poor at retirement age. It wasn't an old lady eating cat food but very close in comparison. My Wife and I absolutely KNEW what we were working for and it WAS the "brass ring". Every day for decades we focused on what life would be like when we stopped working. Thank God we did. Now ,after 15 years of retirement, we're better off financially than the day we retired.

Guys there is no secret to this. Live below your means, achieve the no debt status before you retire and SAVE SAVE SAVE!!!. Many if not all of our friends are still working or just now retiring. Many are dead.

I bought a new truck yesterday. I needed one. Wrote a check for it. No it wasn't the giant lifted bad ass big boy. Nice Canyon with what we needed on it. I'll reuse the tool box I had on the other one I had. We're still worth more now than when we retired. It was hard ( we thought) watching everyone we knew take trips and buy stuff while we stayed home and drove used cars. Now THEY stay home and drive used vehicles. I'm having a BLAST being retired and we earned it the hard way.
Link Posted: 3/20/2024 9:35:55 AM EDT
[#11]
I firmly believe outflow in retirement is FAR more important than inflow. Now, if you have no retirement inflow, that’s a big problem. But, if you have lots of money coming in and even more flowing out, you’re also in trouble.

I think defining retirement expectations is very important and a mostly neglected part of retirement planning. It would be awesome to have a summer house up north and a winter house down south and spend time in both. But, if that’s what you want, you will need to have a lot of money for retirement. Or, maybe you want to travel to far off exotic places. Again, that’s awesome but it will require a lot of money for retirement if that’s what you want.

I think we should all define our expectations and then fund those expectations. If we discover we can’t fund our expectations, then we must lower our expectations.

In my case, I got started thinking about retirement in my later 20s. I am not in as good of a situation as I could have been if I started in my early 20s (although I was still building 2 retirements in my 20s….I just didn’t think about it at the time) but I am in pretty good shape. If things keep on track, I will have 100% income replacement in retirement….which is far better than most. I am not rich, and never will be, but I have a good life and live comfortably. 100%+ retirement income replacement means I can have a good life in retirement…..but…..unfortunately my wife did not plan nearly as well. She has some money in her 401k and is vested in a very small state pension (not enough years under the state pension to make it really good). She has paid into SS for her whole life but she has a lot of years in the past where she didn’t make much money….so her SS is ok but not great. So, even though I have 100%+ in my retirement future, she does not. So, we WILL take a cut to income in retirement. It won’t be terrible but our combined income will be below 100%. Probably in the 75-80% range. Which is still decent and much better than most people.

To plan for retirement, about 12 years ago we bought property in the country and slowly improved it. About 7 years ago, we built our house. It’s plenty big enough for us but it’s not a mansion. I insulated it very well to keep utility costs low. It’s metal sided so very low maintenance. It’s in a low property tax area. Monthly costs are very reasonable. I did a lot of the work myself to save money on the build. We will replace all appliances, HVAC system, and probably the roof before we retire.  We are on track to have it paid for in 2 years or less. Once it’s paid off, that extra money will go into retirement accounts.

At the same time, we are healthy still so we are doing more vacation travel. We don’t want to save every penny just to die with lots of money. I’ve said it elsewhere but I intend to enjoy life and to enjoy what we have and what we have worked for.

Great topic but one that is ignored by many and some are outright hostile toward it.

Link Posted: 3/20/2024 9:39:10 AM EDT
[#12]
Link Posted: 3/20/2024 10:15:41 AM EDT
[#13]
Learn to live within your means. I have a modest pension and wife and I get SS. At 72 I have barely touched our 401K.
We just don't go crazy. I go the the range, my wife goes to the casinos as I occasionally. We're content.
Link Posted: 3/20/2024 10:30:49 AM EDT
[#14]
There are still pensions out there, for instance UPS(that everybody hates, and is too much work for most fats) offers a pension,401k and stock.
Link Posted: 3/20/2024 11:11:04 AM EDT
[#15]
Originally Posted By frozenny:
Make $100K, put nothing in 401K, and there is zero contribution for the company to match.  Hey, bonus for them.  They just saved that $5000 from the example above.  Many companies OFFER the 401K, but they dont push too hard.  If you choose not to enroll, they are happy to save thousands thru your ignorance.  

Or for many people,  its "I'll contribute $3,000 a year".  Fair enough.  You put in 3%, so the company kicked in another 3%.  Good news!  You doubled your Money!  And after decades of saving $6000 per year (your 3K and the company match 3K) you've got $150,000 in your 401K.
View Quote


The Secure Act 2.0 forces (starting in 2025) 401k plans to default to auto-enroll for employees, AND enforces a minimum contribution rate of 3% (up to 10% default at auto-enrollment), AND enforces a default 1% increase per year until at LEAST 10% is reached (but plans can keep this auto-increase turned on up to 15%)

So, the government is saving us from our own stupidity.

Vanguard recently reported that Americans are saving for retirement at record rates, as 43% of workers increased their percentages in their defined contribution plans, with 28% of all participants had theirs increased by their employer's auto-increase program default.  The savings rate is the highest percentage Vanguard has recorded in 23 years of data.

https://www.ar15.com/forums/general/Americans-are-feeling-hopeful-about-retirement-according-to-two-new-reports/5-2713508/
Link Posted: 3/20/2024 11:18:37 AM EDT
[#16]
You're not wrong about any of that.
Link Posted: 3/20/2024 11:26:21 AM EDT
[#17]
I'd like to mention that the minority with a pension, particularly a private sector pension, just because they're defined benefit plans doesn't mean they're risk free.  I never understood WHY the people who tend to be the most vigorous defenders of "pensions" have such significant overlap with the adversarial-unionish-"fuck the company they're all trying to screw us" types; the only way that pension gets paid for 20-30 years is if that company continues to exist for 20-30 years and in my mind no different than yeeting every dollar you might hope to retire with into 1 single stock you picked at random.  It doesn't matter what the law is, what guarantees you have, how much you feel like they owe you, whether it's right or wrong, it's got the same risk as any other investment.  If there's no money to pay the pension there's no pension.

So even if you have one, I would highly suggest also funding an IRA or 401k or both, even if at a lower amount than someone without a pension might.  It could be the difference between being forced out of retirement or being comfortable even with a defunct pension that quits paying after 5 years.
Link Posted: 3/20/2024 11:55:48 AM EDT
[#18]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Kuraki:
I'd like to mention that the minority with a pension, particularly a private sector pension, just because they're defined benefit plans doesn't mean they're risk free.  I never understood WHY the people who tend to be the most vigorous defenders of "pensions" have such significant overlap with the adversarial-unionish-"fuck the company they're all trying to screw us" types; the only way that pension gets paid for 20-30 years is if that company continues to exist for 20-30 years and in my mind no different than yeeting every dollar you might hope to retire with into 1 single stock you picked at random.  It doesn't matter what the law is, what guarantees you have, how much you feel like they owe you, whether it's right or wrong, it's got the same risk as any other investment.  If there's no money to pay the pension there's no pension.

So even if you have one, I would highly suggest also funding an IRA or 401k or both, even if at a lower amount than someone without a pension might.  It could be the difference between being forced out of retirement or being comfortable even with a defunct pension that quits paying after 5 years.
View Quote




Good comments. I have a pension….actually have 4 of them. All of them funded differently. None of them are impressive individually but all together, add up to a very nice income (when I’m eligible).  I also have private investment accounts and savings. Being diversified is very important. Look at how wealthy people who own businesses diversify. If one is doing poorly, the others are doing well etc.
Link Posted: 3/20/2024 12:05:50 PM EDT
[#19]
lol, just laughing that this is posted in Survival Discussions, not GD.  
Link Posted: 3/20/2024 12:06:45 PM EDT
[#20]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By ColtRifle:




Good comments. I have a pension….actually have 4 of them. All of them funded differently. None of them are impressive individually but all together, add up to a very nice income (when I’m eligible).  I also have private investment accounts and savings. Being diversified is very important. Look at how wealthy people who own businesses diversify. If one is doing poorly, the others are doing well etc.
View Quote


Exactly.

Warren Buffett can wax poetic about how he doesn't see the point of diversification all he wants, he's sitting on $146 billion in cash.  For the rest of us, putting all our eggs in one basket is an obscenely risky scenario.
Link Posted: 3/20/2024 12:17:30 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Toasted] [#21]
Unless you want to live in BFE Mississippi 1 mil is not enough.

Figure 2 to 3 minimum.  And, starting retirement with no debt.
Link Posted: 3/20/2024 12:31:18 PM EDT
[#22]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Toasted:
Unless you want to live in BFE Mississippi 1 mil is not enough.

Figure 2 to 3 minimum.  And, starting retirement with no debt.
View Quote


People were saying $1m target when I first started thinking about 401ks in ~2005.  So while I think it's very hard to say generally what "enough" is as a general rule given the extremely wide variability in cost of living and expectations of what to do in retirement, if $1m in 2005 then just purely by inflation the new number to have that same level of retirement puts the target at $1.6m today if you agree with government inflation data, and more likely $2m+ as you say.
Link Posted: 3/20/2024 12:32:23 PM EDT
[#23]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Toasted:
Unless you want to live in BFE Mississippi 1 mil is not enough.

Figure 2 to 3 minimum.  And, starting retirement with no debt.
View Quote

It is all relative.  I know people who retired comfortably on far less.
Link Posted: 3/20/2024 12:41:40 PM EDT
[#24]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By 7:
lol, just laughing that this is posted in Survival Discussions, not GD.  
View Quote




Well, since it is a survival topic, it makes sense to be posted here. No doubt there would be more people offended like you seem to be if it was posted in GD. Apparently the OP didn’t want to see that nonsense.
Link Posted: 3/20/2024 12:44:15 PM EDT
[Last Edit: ColtRifle] [#25]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Toasted:
Unless you want to live in BFE Mississippi 1 mil is not enough.

Figure 2 to 3 minimum.  And, starting retirement with no debt.
View Quote



There is no way to make accurate blanket statements like that. Without a doubt you are correct in some cases. But, not in all cases. My father in law lives on $1500 SS per month. I don’t want to live like that but he manages just fine.

As I said in an earlier post, you have to define your goals/standards in retirement. Some people will need $10mil for retirement to live like they want to. Others, like my father in law, live happily on far less.
Link Posted: 3/20/2024 12:44:50 PM EDT
[#26]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Lowdown3:
This is where the survival "experts" that have told people-

"Get out of dollar demoninated assets now!" (2013 well known "author")

"Have no money in the stock market, it's too risky- bullets beans and band aids"

"Precious metals will always rise in price"

"Banks are all going to crash in the next few months"-  (heard that in 91, 2007-2011, 2020, etc.)

"Silver will be at $50. an ounce and gold $5,000"  (heard that in 98, 99, 2003, 2007-2011, etc)


are doing people a real frickin disservice.

Part of planning for "TSHTF" is planning for if  TS doesn't HTF.

Having done this since the mid 1980's, I have personally and via the business known a lot of people that went "overboard" and had a tough time coming back.

Preparedness is a journey, not a quick trip.

I remember 1991'sh, similar calls to what you hear today and have heard in the survivalist movement for years- "the economy is about to collapse, cash out of retirement accounts, you never see that money!!!"  

I knew a pretty successful guy that did just that. Guy did that, moved to a rural area and developed a survival retreat. His missing part of the plan- INCOME. Now before he "cashed out" of his retirement accounts he was probably pushing 40 and had been in his industry for close to 15 or so years. He probably could have retired easily at around 60 or even less, but that "cashing out" clearly set him back. He ended up going back in his industry years later to play catch up.  Now this dude has a nice retreat, runs everything off grid, good supplies, etc. But seems like he either called the ball dropping too soon or didn't figure on needing income after moving to his retreat.

Your going to need INCOME, always. You'll want to "sit back" but you'll probably always want/need some income. You'll want this on top of any savings, pension, etc. Most people quit working way too early IMO. Thinking they "deserve" to retire early, sit around on the golf course, etc. Even a couple hundred bucks made on the side during retirement means that's less you will need to pull from your nest eggs.

Your good preparations will help you in retirement- you can rotate food storage that was purchased at lower prices than may currently be available, your AE system providing you electricity means one less bill to pay monthly, your regular PT and combatives training means your not the typical 40 year old Americant that has 17 meds to take every damn day many due to poor lifestyle choices (saves money), if your gardening and raising some of your own food that means your eating fresher food than you can buy- and getting some exercise and sunshine in the process.

Good preps for SHTF will help you in retirement, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't put cash back.






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All of the above would certainly be true if globalists weren’t ensuring, through their minions, that the US is being destroyed. The culture, the rule of law, production capabilities, our health, liberty and wealth. I can’t remember the last major issue that was decided in a way to benefit people here. Literally everything done has been to our detriment.

They will use illegals voting to steal the 2024 elections. They are bringing them in and giving them food and shelter. They are treating them better than citizens while targeting us for noticing. If they succeed in another theft the country is toast.

In that scenario it’s likely that having a million dollars in the bank, subject to default and seizure, would be far less valuable than having a house, garden, chickens, PM and a random pile of goods.

I imagine you would do very well with a warehouse of NV and thermal gear. Unless the collapse is so bad people starve.
Link Posted: 3/20/2024 1:57:59 PM EDT
[#27]
Several of us were talking about retirement earlier this week.  I'm 62 and have already slowed down my career, but will consult for a couple of more years. One guy has been retired for 5 years. One guy just retired this year, and two guys in their early to mid 50's.

Everyone at the table had a very different take on what preparing for retirement and being comfortable in meant.

One of the younger guys falls into that "been contributing $1,000 every year to our 401K" and they are a classic example a couple that is living paycheck to paycheck on two $100,000 year salaries...new cars every two years, recently moved into a bigger home (with a big mortgage), a couple of big vacations a year, kids have never heard the word "No".    He seemed to think they would keep doing the same thing until 65, them retire with the same lifestyle they have today and  do more traveling.  I ask if either of them expected a big inheritance and he got pissed off at the question.
Link Posted: 3/20/2024 2:11:29 PM EDT
[#28]
I retired at 50.  I see endless wage slaves who not only made no plans, they currently still live paycheck to pay check, yet have fancy vehicles and toys.

I think the biggest problem is that people's egos are invested in keeping up with the Jones's.

Had a poor friend who bought a brand new Tundra.  I asked why, and his response was "Well, I need something reliable."

Link Posted: 3/20/2024 3:22:52 PM EDT
[Last Edit: ColtRifle] [#29]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Karankawa:


All of the above would certainly be true if globalists weren’t ensuring, through their minions, that the US is being destroyed. The culture, the rule of law, production capabilities, our health, liberty and wealth. I can’t remember the last major issue that was decided in a way to benefit people here. Literally everything done has been to our detriment.

They will use illegals voting to steal the 2024 elections. They are bringing them in and giving them food and shelter. They are treating them better than citizens while targeting us for noticing. If they succeed in another theft the country is toast.

In that scenario it’s likely that having a million dollars in the bank, subject to default and seizure, would be far less valuable than having a house, garden, chickens, PM and a random pile of goods.

I imagine you would do very well with a warehouse of NV and thermal gear. Unless the collapse is so bad people starve.
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All those things suck. But, despite the doom and gloom predictions, the country keeps trucking along. The world may collapse tomorrow. We could be in WWIII. Nukes could fly. All those things are possible but they are an unknown. There is one thing we can all guarantee. We will all get older. Some of us will die early. Most of us will live to 70, 80, 90 etc. Planning for retirement is extremely important because, unless we die young, most of us will get old. The world may not end but you will almost certainly get old. You will DEFINITELY get older than you are now.

Which is more likely…..you living to 80 or the world ending? Depending on your answer, probably should make THAT your planning priority.

Not saying not to plan for SHTF but remember, having no retirement plan IS SHTF for you if you are old.
Link Posted: 3/21/2024 6:31:20 AM EDT
[#30]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By 7:
lol, just laughing that this is posted in Survival Discussions, not GD.  
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Financial survival is a thing, and it is good to remind people not to ignore it.  Just like I make sure I have plenty of fuel for the generator, a way to clean water, lots of ammo, lots of food in the basement, etc, having enough money or income gives you resiliency when times get tough.  

I have a good pension with a crummy COLA, a small HSA that probably will cover most of our insurance needs between the wife’s retirement date and when medicare kicks in, and am also eligible for SS.  And I stashed a decent amount of money into my 457b account.  Wife will get a small pension, SS, and has a retirement account as well with 15% going into it.  Basically- we have backup plans.  Same idea as having a backup plan for everything else.  Maybe it is overkill, but probably so is having extra stuff in the basement.  I don’t care- rather have more than enough versus not enough.  

And while we plan for contingencies like a major earthquake or whatever, you better have a plan in case things go fairly OK as well!
Link Posted: 3/21/2024 6:34:36 AM EDT
[#31]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By FALARAK:

It is all relative.  I know people who retired comfortably on far less.
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By FALARAK:
Originally Posted By Toasted:
Unless you want to live in BFE Mississippi 1 mil is not enough.

Figure 2 to 3 minimum.  And, starting retirement with no debt.

It is all relative.  I know people who retired comfortably on far less.



Income vs expenses is what really matters.  My numbers say we could retire with a negative number in savings if we wanted to do so, due to expected income.  However, we are hoping to have both income and savings….
Link Posted: 3/21/2024 6:38:46 AM EDT
[#32]
Hope so, gone July 1.

Pension, SS, good healthy HSA, company paid health care til 65, then they give you $$ if you wish to still buy supplement insurance thru them, it's a good deal. 401K, lots of CD's I roll right now, roth, and other financial stuff.

Biggest for me is zero debt, just monthly living expenses so it's pretty cheap living.
Link Posted: 3/21/2024 6:47:10 AM EDT
[#33]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By arashi:
I retired at 50.  I see endless wage slaves who not only made no plans, they currently still live paycheck to pay check, yet have fancy vehicles and toys.

I think the biggest problem is that people's egos are invested in keeping up with the Jones's.

Had a poor friend who bought a brand new Tundra.  I asked why, and his response was "Well, I need something reliable."

View Quote


Hell my 16 year old Tundra is still reliable, and long ago paid off.  Good for quite a few more miles I suspect.  I also retired at 50…. I could buy a new one, but knowing I could buy one is good enough for me I guess.

My dad just bought his first brand new truck recently- in his mid 70’s.  A double cab Tundra for 46k.  Told him that he needed to spend more of his money as he is still getting enough in income to not touch his savings typically.  Guessing I learned the “who cares about cars” from him (though I typically buy a new one, drive it forever, then buy another new one).  He didn’t teach me anything at all about investing, but I guess not giving a damn about what the neighbors think was a decent lesson at least.  

Link Posted: 3/21/2024 9:05:35 AM EDT
[#34]
Thanks all...

I'm appreciating the rational, well thought, well intended contributions.   Which may explain why this is in SF and not GD....
Link Posted: 3/21/2024 9:28:06 AM EDT
[#35]
64 here. Started 401K in 1984.  40 years of contributing has been very good to me.

The last 15 or so have been at the max limit.

I am debt free, own my house clear, and have a very substantial balance in 401k and other accounts.

I know I can retire, start getting SS, and live comfortably just off dividends.

Yet, I have a mental block, that I worry I don't have enough.  I know I do.  It's weird, maybe it's my work ethic too.
Link Posted: 3/21/2024 9:36:19 AM EDT
[#36]
Lets use the $1,000,000 nest egg in current conditions with a husband and wife both collecting social security and everything paid for (no debt).

$1,000,000 invested in CD's @ 5%
$50,000

Wife SSN
$18,000

Husband SSN
$30,000

Total yearly income
$98,000

Pick a state to retire where the cost of living is low and have all your debt taken care of and you can still retire comfortably.
I would also look ahead and accumulate inventory or equipment while working so you could have a "side hustle" something that generates cash sales.
Link Posted: 3/21/2024 9:39:44 AM EDT
[#37]
Link Posted: 3/21/2024 9:42:58 AM EDT
[#38]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Bosqueboy:
$1,000,000 invested in CD's @ 5%
$50,000
View Quote


This is a bit folly.  Here is why:  The only call protected CD's paying 5% are short term CD's of 18 months or less.  You cannot use this for long term planning, as Interest rates will change, sometimes drastically, and wreck this part of the plan.

Right now, long term CD's are 4.35% on a 5 year, and 4.00% on a 10 year.  So a 10-year CD is acceptable for longer term planning, locking in at 4%.  Otherwise, you can use the 4% drawdown rule on a 60/40 portfolio.

So change the value to $40,000 and the basis of your position is still 100% valid.
Link Posted: 3/21/2024 9:50:56 AM EDT
[#39]
401s are like the stock market also, you'd better pay attention because it's real easy to have high yield  make funds quick stocks turn on a dime.....and your 401 account amount go to zero if you don't catch it quick enough to move funds into a safer low yield stock.
Link Posted: 3/21/2024 9:57:48 AM EDT
[#40]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By Ndenway1twicetimes:
401s are like the stock market also, you'd better pay attention because it's real easy to have high yield  make funds quick stocks turn on a dime.....and your 401 account amount go to zero if you don't catch it quick enough to move funds into a safer low yield stock.
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401Ks are a container of investments.  Most of which are in the stock market.
Unless you are invested in a single security the chance of it going to zero is zero.

If the S&P500 goes to zero, real bad shit has happened, like nuclear war.
Link Posted: 3/21/2024 10:26:09 AM EDT
[#41]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By ACEB36TC:
This not a "humble brag" but I saw very early on the problem with being poor at retirement age. It wasn't an old lady eating cat food but very close in comparison. My Wife and I absolutely KNEW what we were working for and it WAS the "brass ring". Every day for decades we focused on what life would be like when we stopped working. Thank God we did. Now ,after 15 years of retirement, we're better off financially than the day we retired.

Guys there is no secret to this. Live below your means, achieve the no debt status before you retire and SAVE SAVE SAVE!!!. Many if not all of our friends are still working or just now retiring. Many are dead.

I bought a new truck yesterday. I needed one. Wrote a check for it. No it wasn't the giant lifted bad ass big boy. Nice Canyon with what we needed on it. I'll reuse the tool box I had on the other one I had. We're still worth more now than when we retired. It was hard ( we thought) watching everyone we knew take trips and buy stuff while we stayed home and drove used cars. Now THEY stay home and drive used vehicles. I'm having a BLAST being retired and we earned it the hard way.
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Link Posted: 3/21/2024 10:29:28 AM EDT
[#42]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By entropy:
64 here. Started 401K in 1984.  40 years of contributing has been very good to me.

The last 15 or so have been at the max limit.

I am debt free, own my house clear, and have a very substantial balance in 401k and other accounts.

I know I can retire, start getting SS, and live comfortably just off dividends.

Yet, I have a mental block, that I worry I don't have enough.  I know I do.  It's weird, maybe it's my work ethic too.


View Quote



Watch the video I posted above.
Link Posted: 3/21/2024 11:04:06 AM EDT
[#43]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By NAK:
Several of us were talking about retirement earlier this week.  I'm 62 and have already slowed down my career, but will consult for a couple of more years. One guy has been retired for 5 years. One guy just retired this year, and two guys in their early to mid 50's.

Everyone at the table had a very different take on what preparing for retirement and being comfortable in meant.

One of the younger guys falls into that "been contributing $1,000 every year to our 401K" and they are a classic example a couple that is living paycheck to paycheck on two $100,000 year salaries...new cars every two years, recently moved into a bigger home (with a big mortgage), a couple of big vacations a year, kids have never heard the word "No".    He seemed to think they would keep doing the same thing until 65, them retire with the same lifestyle they have today and  do more traveling.  I ask if either of them expected a big inheritance and he got pissed off at the question.
View Quote



I was sad to hear a guy actually admit that was his part of his retirement plan.   His inlaws are pretty well off and not in the best of health and his wife is their only daughter.   I found it pretty disgusting.  

I have a sister that was always a spendthrift and only partially employed (18-20 hours a week if she felt well enough).  She was hounding my other sisters for the estates of my mother and a sister who passed a year later.  My mom carried her for years even in her poor health and meager retirement years.  She was a bit bitter to only see a few thousand dollars.  My step sister was the same after my step dad passed even though everything was in my mom’s name as they lived in the house she had prior to them getting married.  He sold his house and bought a truck and went in to the trucking business and lost his shirt after deregulation.   His money was tied up in a depreciating asset and the vinyl siding on the house.  There was no hundreds of thousands of dollars for her inheritance .
Link Posted: 3/21/2024 11:08:55 AM EDT
[#44]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By SteelonSteel:
I was sad to hear a guy actually admit that was his part of his retirement plan.   His inlaws are pretty well off and not in the best of health and his wife is their only daughter.   I found it pretty disgusting.
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Curious - why do you care that someone else is planning on inheritance as part of their plan?
Link Posted: 3/21/2024 11:09:30 AM EDT
[#45]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By ColtRifle:



Watch the video I posted above.
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I obviously have #3, but still not sure what the heck to do about it!
Link Posted: 3/21/2024 11:14:35 AM EDT
[#46]
I have been trying to push my company to let me do a quick 30-minute presentation about what a 401k is / how it works / investment strategies and they won't even fund that.

They will fund a meeting where a manager talks about company goals and other things, but not that.

I will give the YOUTH some credit, a lot of Millenials and Gen Z are starting to learn more about investing, as they have been told for over a decade that social security will not be there to save them.
Link Posted: 3/21/2024 11:20:50 AM EDT
[#47]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By djkest:
I have been trying to push my company to let me do a quick 30-minute presentation about what a 401k is / how it works / investment strategies and they won't even fund that.

They will fund a meeting where a manager talks about company goals and other things, but not that.

I will give the YOUTH some credit, a lot of Millenials and Gen Z are starting to learn more about investing, as they have been told for over a decade that social security will not be there to save them.
View Quote


In my company - we do it ourselves.  We have a group chat via a Teams channel, a OneNote with all the strategies, and regular weekly calls where people can ask questions, present things, it is awesome.  I developed a deck to talk about maximizing all the financial benefits and I get asked all the time to deliver it on team calls with different managers because they heard about it via word of mouth.  No funding necessary.  What funding do you need?  Just do it grass-roots.

Our calls got so big and popular, we even have a Fidelity rep join the call once a month to answer any custodian specific questions.  I also lead a bi-weekly call for newbies to cover basic stuff, people hear about this stuff word of month and new people join every week.
Link Posted: 3/21/2024 11:25:13 AM EDT
[Last Edit: djkest] [#48]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By FALARAK:


In my company - we do it ourselves.  We have a group chat via a Teams channel, a OneNote with all the strategies, and regular weekly calls where people can ask questions, present things, it is awesome.  I developed a deck to talk about maximizing all the financial benefits and I get asked all the time to deliver it on team calls with different managers because they heard about it via word of mouth.  No funding necessary.  What funding do you need?  Just do it grass-roots.

Our calls got so big and popular, we even have a Fidelity rep join the call once a month to answer any custodian specific questions.  I also lead a bi-weekly call for newbies to cover basic stuff, people hear about this stuff word of month and new people join every week.
View Quote


Since I work on a contract, non-contract work is not funded, IE, it would have to be treated as a break, meaning you are at work for 30 additional minutes to get your required time in.
We also can't use most apps at work. We have Teams and Jabber and that's it.  If I could just get corp. funding for 30 minutes, I think a lot more people would attend
Link Posted: 3/21/2024 11:50:48 AM EDT
[#49]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By FALARAK:


In my company - we do it ourselves.  We have a group chat via a Teams channel, a OneNote with all the strategies, and regular weekly calls where people can ask questions, present things, it is awesome.  I developed a deck to talk about maximizing all the financial benefits and I get asked all the time to deliver it on team calls with different managers because they heard about it via word of mouth.  No funding necessary.  What funding do you need?  Just do it grass-roots.

Our calls got so big and popular, we even have a Fidelity rep join the call once a month to answer any custodian specific questions.  I also lead a bi-weekly call for newbies to cover basic stuff, people hear about this stuff word of month and new people join every week.
View Quote


That's awesome
Link Posted: 3/21/2024 12:01:59 PM EDT
[#50]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By FALARAK:


This is a bit folly.  Here is why:  The only call protected CD's paying 5% are short term CD's of 18 months or less.  You cannot use this for long term planning, as Interest rates will change, sometimes drastically, and wreck this part of the plan.

Right now, long term CD's are 4.35% on a 5 year, and 4.00% on a 10 year.  So a 10-year CD is acceptable for longer term planning, locking in at 4%.  Otherwise, you can use the 4% drawdown rule on a 60/40 portfolio.

So change the value to $40,000 and the basis of your position is still 100% valid.
View Quote


You are correct on the current CD rates, I'm using a ladder approach at the moment with more weight on the short term CD's than the long term, I also only buy call protected as you stated.

Once retirement age has been reached my thought is throw long term planning out the window as we no longer will be on this earth long term, I'm starting to plan on how to die broke, I figure I need 25 years of retirement income. So if we retire at age 65 and need 25 years of income that $1,000,000 would give us $40,000 @ year without investing it at all, now throw in a modest return on your $1,000,000 and would be comfortable with a 5% drawdown. Its hard to come to grips on spending our retirement fund after all we were the type to save our money, that's how we got a million dollars in the first place by being "thrifty".

The big unknown in retirement planning is inflation as we have found out recently all good plans are fine and dandy until inflation punches us in the face. Obviously there is no right or wrong, black or white just what everyone is comfortable with and everyone's circumstances are different but I think the American dream is still alive and "God Bless America".

Thank you for taking the time to join in the discussion, I appreciate you.
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