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Posted: 4/30/2011 8:32:30 PM EDT
 If possible I would like to have a discussion on the direction this country and its currency is going to take and whether we will end with a deflationary depression or what I believe is inevitable Hyperinflation. This is not intended to be a will something bad happen or not. The premise is that the currency collapse is baked in the cake. I will spend no time discussing with someone that doesnt accept that premise. Now I would like to if; possible use this as an opportunity to get accross how one should prepare for Hyperinflation, as I fear that many people on this sight are preparing for a deflationary depression. The consequences of making the wrong decision on how you prepare will be severe. Now I am 100% in the Hyperinflationary camp. some notable bloggers on the topic of Hyperinflation http://fofoa.blogspot.com/ http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/ I am not nearly as keyed into the deflation camp, I really only know of these two http://www.dailykos.com/blog/Stoneleigh http://www.rickackerman.com/ Now in a recent stunning turn of events the hardcore deflationist Rick Ackerman has been turned to the hyperinflation camp article here: http://www.rickackerman.com/2011/04/at-last-a-hyperinflation-argument-that-persuades/ Now lets talk hyperinflation or deflation |
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Posted: 4/30/2011 8:35:06 PM EDT
[#1]
A walk through the grocery store with the Wife today left me with no doubt, there is a whole lot of inflation going on.
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Posted: 4/30/2011 8:35:41 PM EDT
[#2]
The printing press is running at warp speed, and the dilitium crystals are no where near depleted.
Hyperinflation for the win. |
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Posted: 4/30/2011 8:37:02 PM EDT
[#3]
You can't have deflation if you keep printing money.
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Posted: 4/30/2011 8:38:10 PM EDT
[#4]
Quoted:
The printing press is running at warp speed, and the dilitium crystals are no where near depleted. Hyperinflation for the win. I don't know. I foresee the fed realizing about a year past the point of no return that they have fucked up and so they throw everything in reverse. Really, the problem here is that we are trying to foresee what a moron is going to do when he is desperate`. |
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Posted: 4/30/2011 8:47:18 PM EDT
[#5]
Quoted:
http://i53.tinypic.com/ng5bsw.jpg If possible I would like to have a discussion on the direction this country and its currency is going to take and whether we will end with a deflationary depression or what I believe is inevitable Hyperinflation. This is not intended to be a will something bad happen or not. The premise is that the currency collapse is baked in the cake. I will spend no time discussing with someone that doesnt accept that premise. Now I would like to if; possible use this as an opportunity to get accross how one should prepare for Hyperinflation, as I fear that many people on this sight are preparing for a deflationary depression. The consequences of making the wrong decision on how you prepare will be severe. Now I am 100% in the Hyperinflationary camp. some notable bloggers on the topic of Hyperinflation http://fofoa.blogspot.com/ http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/ I am not nearly as keyed into the deflation camp, I really only know of these two http://www.dailykos.com/blog/Stoneleigh http://www.rickackerman.com/ Now in a recent stunning turn of events the hardcore deflationist Rick Ackerman has been turned to the hyperinflation camp article here: http://www.rickackerman.com/2011/04/at-last-a-hyperinflation-argument-that-persuades/ Now lets talk hyperinflation or deflation Inflation like the late 1970's / early 1980's, yes, hyperinflation like the Wiemar Republic or Zimbabwe, no. Deflation, not going to happen. |
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Posted: 4/30/2011 8:53:04 PM EDT
[#6]
Quoted:
Quoted:
The printing press is running at warp speed, and the dilitium crystals are no where near depleted. Hyperinflation for the win. I don't know. I foresee the fed realizing about a year past the point of no return that they have fucked up and so they throw everything in reverse. Really, the problem here is that we are trying to foresee what a moron is going to do when he is desperate`. Personally, I think we are already witnessing what he will do. Print. The interest form the debt alone is going to be killing us soon. http://www.usdebtclock.org/ If those numbers don't blow you away, click on the time machine tab in the upper right corner. |
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Posted: 4/30/2011 9:04:14 PM EDT
[#7]
Inflation possibly hyper.
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Posted: 4/30/2011 9:06:59 PM EDT
[#8]
neither We will have inflation. But I think it probably, barring a QE3, won't get to 1981 levels. If we have a QE3 we could see 10-20% inflation again. |
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Posted: 4/30/2011 9:13:36 PM EDT
[#9]
Inflation is good for you when you owe money, whether it is a mortgage for 100K or trillions of dollars.
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Posted: 4/30/2011 9:20:48 PM EDT
[#10]
Prechter is your man for Deflation, haven't read anything of his in some time.
I'm with you, there's no incentive for anyone to allow a deflationary spiral of cross-default. They will print whatever is necessary, the global consequences will be horrendous. Bernanke just announced QE isn't going to end, he used a lot of weasel words so I'm not surprised some of us don't get it, QE3 is irrelevent because QE as needed is now the policy. What I think some people are missing is that QE doesn't just inflate the money supply, leading to predictable inflation rates, it destroys the market. It's the moral hazard and malinvestment created by destroying the fundamental pricing mechanisms of the marketplace that really fuels the dislocation. |
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Posted: 4/30/2011 9:21:21 PM EDT
[#11]
I do not see wage increases coming with the in,flation.
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Posted: 4/30/2011 9:31:24 PM EDT
[#12]
Hyper-inflation e/r to America. We already saw commodities jump 30% when QE2 was announced. QE3 will see another jump and if that's combined with the sudden dumping of $2 trillion of U.S T-bills on the market, we're cooked.
We should have let the Too-big-to-fail fail. It would have been better to take a little pain for a few years than a lot of pain for decades. All we've done is to delay the fall and transfer the burden of failure from the Too-big-to-fails onto the U.S. taxpayer's overburdened shoulders. Thank you Dubya and Zero. 
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Posted: 4/30/2011 9:47:07 PM EDT
[#13]
Hyper with ChiComs kicking us in the economic nuts every time we look away in payback for us robbing them of the money they earned.
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Posted: 4/30/2011 9:47:28 PM EDT
[#14]
Quoted: I do not see wage increases coming with the in,flation. It will happen. Always does. It is one of the lagging inflation items, however. For some it might not equal the inflation increase, but for those that are worth it, it will. |
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Posted: 4/30/2011 9:51:58 PM EDT
[#15]
Quoted: neither We will have inflation. But I think it probably, barring a QE3, won't get to 1981 levels. If we have a QE3 we could see 10-20% inflation again. ^^^^ |
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Posted: 4/30/2011 9:52:56 PM EDT
[#16]
Quoted: this too ^^^Quoted: I do not see wage increases coming with the in,flation. It will happen. Always does. It is one of the lagging inflation items, however. For some it might not equal the inflation increase, but for those that are worth it, it will. |
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Posted: 4/30/2011 10:01:37 PM EDT
[#17]
An economist friend has a cartoon on his office door, a very old yellowed clipping from the Sunday Comics. In it the ants from B.C. are talking about barter, and the final pane, one asks the other, "What's for dinner?" and the other ant answered, "Skate keys."
The point was, you can't always barter what you have for what you want. Here, I found the text, Father ant comes home. Mother ant: how was work dear? Father ant: lousy. (goes to bed) Kid ant: whats wrong with pop? mother ant: you see son, we live in a barter economy. That means a baker trades his bread for something he needs like shoes and the shoe maker trades his shoes for bread. Kid ant:Whatever. Whats for dinner? Mother ant: skate keys. |
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Posted: 4/30/2011 10:03:52 PM EDT
[#18]
If I had to bet my life savings on it (and guess what...we do) I'd say that we will probably see increased inflation. I wont say that we are going to see hyper-inflation on a scale where a loaf of bread will cost $100,000 but when gas hits $5+ in a few months it wont even make me look twice.
Look around....everything is getting more expensive. Deflation is impossible right now....there is too much money being injected into the economy. If the FRB stopped issuing cash like rain drops in a hurricane and the major banks scaled back credit availability, we would get deflation.....but lets be honest....those things arent going to happen. Society is addicted to consumption....they want....and they get....and if that stops, things would get uncivil. The central bank will keep the economy flooded with monopoly money because its exactly what the government wants....keep the people fat and pacified, charge the whole thing to future generations....they'll all be dead long before the invoice shows up. The next 100 years of this nation have already been bought and sold...hope you got a piece. What scares me is tha payrolls wont keep up with inflation....and more likely, many companies will simply fail as production costs erode margins. I see this as a slow death...but an unavoidable one. |
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Posted: 4/30/2011 10:13:08 PM EDT
[#19]
The decision was made when Tarp and QE was unveiled. Deflation will not be allowed to happen. Inflation is here. Whether it qulifies as "Hyper" or not, is really just a matter of perspective.
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Posted: 4/30/2011 10:20:48 PM EDT
[#20]
Quoted:
If I had to bet my life savings on it (and guess what...we do) I'd say that we will probably see increased inflation. I wont say that we are going to see hyper-inflation on a scale where a loaf of bread will cost $100,000 but when gas hits $5+ in a few months it wont even make me look twice. Look around....everything is getting more expensive. Deflation is impossible right now....there is too much money being injected into the economy. If the FRB stopped issuing cash like rain drops in a hurricane and the major banks scaled back credit availability, we would get deflation.....but lets be honest....those things arent going to happen. Society is addicted to consumption....they want....and they get....and if that stops, things would get uncivil. The central bank will keep the economy flooded with monopoly money because its exactly what the government wants....keep the people fat and pacified, charge the whole thing to future generations....they'll all be dead long before the invoice shows up. The next 100 years of this nation have already been bought and sold...hope you got a piece. What scares me is tha payrolls wont keep up with inflation....and more likely, many companies will simply fail as production costs erode margins. I see this as a slow death...but an unavoidable one. I agree with everything but the slow part. As the debt mounts, so will the interest payments, until the point it consumes our entire GDP. I'll try to find the year of when that was projected to hit, but it wasn't too far off. |
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Posted: 4/30/2011 10:24:48 PM EDT
[#21]
Quoted:
Quoted:
If I had to bet my life savings on it (and guess what...we do) I'd say that we will probably see increased inflation. I wont say that we are going to see hyper-inflation on a scale where a loaf of bread will cost $100,000 but when gas hits $5+ in a few months it wont even make me look twice. Look around....everything is getting more expensive. Deflation is impossible right now....there is too much money being injected into the economy. If the FRB stopped issuing cash like rain drops in a hurricane and the major banks scaled back credit availability, we would get deflation.....but lets be honest....those things arent going to happen. Society is addicted to consumption....they want....and they get....and if that stops, things would get uncivil. The central bank will keep the economy flooded with monopoly money because its exactly what the government wants....keep the people fat and pacified, charge the whole thing to future generations....they'll all be dead long before the invoice shows up. The next 100 years of this nation have already been bought and sold...hope you got a piece. What scares me is tha payrolls wont keep up with inflation....and more likely, many companies will simply fail as production costs erode margins. I see this as a slow death...but an unavoidable one. I agree with everything but the slow part. As the debt mounts, so will the interest payments, until the point it consumes our entire GDP. I'll try to find the year of when that was projected to hit, but it wasn't too far off. We're already in the 90+% range now so not far off. Remember that something like 47% of our national debt is owed to ourselves. |
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Posted: 4/30/2011 10:25:35 PM EDT
[#22]
Inflation baby
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Posted: 4/30/2011 10:26:31 PM EDT
[#23]
Quoted:
Quoted:
If I had to bet my life savings on it (and guess what...we do) I'd say that we will probably see increased inflation. I wont say that we are going to see hyper-inflation on a scale where a loaf of bread will cost $100,000 but when gas hits $5+ in a few months it wont even make me look twice. Look around....everything is getting more expensive. Deflation is impossible right now....there is too much money being injected into the economy. If the FRB stopped issuing cash like rain drops in a hurricane and the major banks scaled back credit availability, we would get deflation.....but lets be honest....those things arent going to happen. Society is addicted to consumption....they want....and they get....and if that stops, things would get uncivil. The central bank will keep the economy flooded with monopoly money because its exactly what the government wants....keep the people fat and pacified, charge the whole thing to future generations....they'll all be dead long before the invoice shows up. The next 100 years of this nation have already been bought and sold...hope you got a piece. What scares me is tha payrolls wont keep up with inflation....and more likely, many companies will simply fail as production costs erode margins. I see this as a slow death...but an unavoidable one. I agree with everything but the slow part. As the debt mounts, so will the interest payments, until the point it consumes our entire GDP. I'll try to find the year of when that was projected to hit, but it wasn't too far off. I think it will 'feel' slow because the Dagny Taggart's of the world are going to keep trying to plug the cracks in the dam....and that will prolong the decline for a while....all the while, most of us will watch with disdain as our nations banking system fails before our eyes. For the first time in my life, I can see clear and present need to reorganize the central banking system. What scares the hell out of me is that I'm sure Obama sees it too...and has his own visions of a nationalized economic system. Hope I am dead wrong, but at this point, nothing surprizes me. |
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Posted: 4/30/2011 11:30:50 PM EDT
[#24]
Quoted: neither We will have inflation. But I think it probably, barring a QE3, won't get to 1981 levels. If we have a QE3 we could see 10-20% inflation again. Its not good, but if that happens people will be able to make millions of dollars easily with certain kinds of investments. 30ish years ago there were short periods of time where government bonds were paying locked in 30% interest rates. People who knew what they were doing sold everything of value they could and worked their asses off to earn more money so they could buy as many government bonds as possible. They made millions.  |
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Posted: 5/1/2011 12:06:26 AM EDT
[#25]
Quoted:
Quoted:
neither
We will have inflation. But I think it probably, barring a QE3, won't get to 1981 levels. If we have a QE3 we could see 10-20% inflation again. Its not good, but if that happens people will be able to make millions of dollars easily with certain kinds of investments. 30ish years ago there were short periods of time where government bonds were paying locked in 30% interest rates. People who knew what they were doing sold everything of value they could and worked their asses off to earn more money so they could buy as many government bonds as possible. They made millions. US Treasury Bonds Rates Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month 3 Month 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.07 6 Month 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.15 2 Year 0.60 0.62 0.65 0.75 3 Year 0.99 1.02 1.15 1.25 5 Year 1.97 2.00 2.11 2.17 10 Year 3.29 3.31 3.40 3.44 30 Year 4.40 4.41 4.47 4.50 Not this time |
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Posted: 5/1/2011 12:09:40 AM EDT
[#26]
Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: neither We will have inflation. But I think it probably, barring a QE3, won't get to 1981 levels. If we have a QE3 we could see 10-20% inflation again. Its not good, but if that happens people will be able to make millions of dollars easily with certain kinds of investments. 30ish years ago there were short periods of time where government bonds were paying locked in 30% interest rates. People who knew what they were doing sold everything of value they could and worked their asses off to earn more money so they could buy as many government bonds as possible. They made millions. US Treasury Bonds Rates Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month 3 Month 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.07 6 Month 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.15 2 Year 0.60 0.62 0.65 0.75 3 Year 0.99 1.02 1.15 1.25 5 Year 1.97 2.00 2.11 2.17 10 Year 3.29 3.31 3.40 3.44 30 Year 4.40 4.41 4.47 4.50 Not this time Not now, but its likely that it'll happen again in our lifetimes at least once or twice. Especially with the kind of people we have running our nation and banking system. |
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Posted: 5/1/2011 12:12:34 AM EDT
[#27]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
neither
We will have inflation. But I think it probably, barring a QE3, won't get to 1981 levels. If we have a QE3 we could see 10-20% inflation again. Its not good, but if that happens people will be able to make millions of dollars easily with certain kinds of investments. 30ish years ago there were short periods of time where government bonds were paying locked in 30% interest rates. People who knew what they were doing sold everything of value they could and worked their asses off to earn more money so they could buy as many government bonds as possible. They made millions. US Treasury Bonds Rates Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month 3 Month 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.07 6 Month 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.15 2 Year 0.60 0.62 0.65 0.75 3 Year 0.99 1.02 1.15 1.25 5 Year 1.97 2.00 2.11 2.17 10 Year 3.29 3.31 3.40 3.44 30 Year 4.40 4.41 4.47 4.50 Not this time Not now, but its likely that it'll happen again in our lifetimes at least once or twice. Especially with the kind of people we have running our nation and banking system. Lets just say you're more optimistic than me. I believe the game is already over. They can't ever raise these rates with the debt we now carry. |
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Posted: 5/1/2011 2:34:39 AM EDT
[#28]
I think you will see 'select' hyper-inflation. Property will stay pretty stagnate, interest rates paid TO small businesses, individual will be low. But interest rates you and small business will be high, so will anything with oil/energy and basic commodities especially food. Gas will be $7-8 a gallon by the end of this summer.
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Posted: 5/1/2011 2:50:13 AM EDT
[#29]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
neither
We will have inflation. But I think it probably, barring a QE3, won't get to 1981 levels. If we have a QE3 we could see 10-20% inflation again. Its not good, but if that happens people will be able to make millions of dollars easily with certain kinds of investments. 30ish years ago there were short periods of time where government bonds were paying locked in 30% interest rates. People who knew what they were doing sold everything of value they could and worked their asses off to earn more money so they could buy as many government bonds as possible. They made millions. US Treasury Bonds Rates Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month 3 Month 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.07 6 Month 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.15 2 Year 0.60 0.62 0.65 0.75 3 Year 0.99 1.02 1.15 1.25 5 Year 1.97 2.00 2.11 2.17 10 Year 3.29 3.31 3.40 3.44 30 Year 4.40 4.41 4.47 4.50 Not this time Not now, but its likely that it'll happen again in our lifetimes at least once or twice. Especially with the kind of people we have running our nation and banking system. How will the federal government service 20+ Trillion dollars of debt at even 5%. We have a good chance of ending up in the situation Greece is in. |
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Posted: 5/1/2011 3:11:40 AM EDT
[#30]
I'm going to go with Stagflation.
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Posted: 5/1/2011 3:20:30 AM EDT
[#31]
People follow incentives, it's our nature. Right now the incentives for central bankers are to push an inflationary agenda for the foreseeable future. Something truly gamechanging would have to happen for it to change course. They will try to keep it at a moderate pace but the question really is: Will they be successful in their manipulations?
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Posted: 5/1/2011 4:01:19 AM EDT
[#32]
Quoted: You can't have deflation if you keep printing money. And there you have Ben Bernanke's piliosophy in a nutshell, and the reason why he's currently Fed chairman. Or in his words, "The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at no cost. ..... people know that inflation erodes the real value of the government's debt and, therefore, that it is in the interest of the government to create some inflation." QE to infinity. Eventual issue of new currency once the value of the dollar is destroyed. |
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Posted: 5/1/2011 4:37:41 AM EDT
[#33]
Definitely inflation.
Hyper-inflation? What's the definition of hyper-inflation and w/a $1.6T deficit & $14T national debt (and no signs of either going down), what's to prevent it? Tomac |
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Posted: 5/1/2011 4:53:35 AM EDT
[#34]
You will see rapid inflation on small items that are in high demand and have high consumption i.e. food products and fuel.
Large items such as vacation homes, boats, and motor homes will hugely deflate because few will have the money to buy them. |
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Posted: 5/1/2011 5:00:29 AM EDT
[#35]
Quoted:
A walk through the grocery store with the Wife today left me with no doubt, there is a whole lot of inflation going on. Yep. Food is going up fast. |
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Posted: 5/1/2011 5:10:08 AM EDT
[#36]
Since I can't predict the future, I'm hedging against both. 
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Posted: 5/1/2011 5:15:28 AM EDT
[#37]
Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: neither We will have inflation. But I think it probably, barring a QE3, won't get to 1981 levels. If we have a QE3 we could see 10-20% inflation again. Its not good, but if that happens people will be able to make millions of dollars easily with certain kinds of investments. 30ish years ago there were short periods of time where government bonds were paying locked in 30% interest rates. People who knew what they were doing sold everything of value they could and worked their asses off to earn more money so they could buy as many government bonds as possible. They made millions. US Treasury Bonds Rates Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month 3 Month 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.07 6 Month 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.15 2 Year 0.60 0.62 0.65 0.75 3 Year 0.99 1.02 1.15 1.25 5 Year 1.97 2.00 2.11 2.17 10 Year 3.29 3.31 3.40 3.44 30 Year 4.40 4.41 4.47 4.50 Not this time Not now, but its likely that it'll happen again in our lifetimes at least once or twice. Especially with the kind of people we have running our nation and banking system. This is what I mean by making the wrong preperation for this coming currency collapse. Bonds are not the winning stratedgy in Hyperinflation. Something that FOFOA(his blog) points out is that in Hyperinflation is that surviving Hyperinflation is like a bear attack. You dont have to outrun the bear, you have to outrun the other guy. Cash, Savers, Bond Holders will all be killed. |
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Posted: 5/1/2011 5:22:30 AM EDT
[#38]
Something yall are missing is that Hyperinflation is not a government policy. It is caused by a loss of confidence in currency.
So the fed can continue this inflationary policy, but not cause Hyperinflation. However if the people lose faith in currency and the velocity of money increases. This forces prices higher. This causes a couple of thngs. The velocity of the money increases the supply of money thus raising prices. The increase of money velocity causes government to have to spend more for the same services. Banks need more cash money to keep up with the velocity The rapid massive printing of money is not the cause of hyperinflation, however it does cause an accelerating upward spiral. |
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Posted: 5/1/2011 5:29:44 AM EDT
[#39]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Not now, but its likely that it'll happen again in our lifetimes at least once or twice. Especially with the kind of people we have running our nation and banking system. This is what I mean by making the wrong preperation for this coming currency collapse. Bonds are not the winning stratedgy in Hyperinflation. Something that FOFOA(his blog) points out is that in Hyperinflation is that surviving Hyperinflation is like a bear attack. You dont have to outrun the bear, you have to outrun the other guy. Cash, Savers, Bond Holders will all be killed. So what do you suggest? Precious Metals, beans and bullets, or a combination of both? |
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Posted: 5/1/2011 5:29:48 AM EDT
[#40]
Quoted:
Something yall are missing is that Hyperinflation is not a government policy. It is caused by a loss of confidence in currency. So the fed can continue this inflationary policy, but not cause Hyperinflation. However if the people lose faith in currency and the velocity of money increases. This forces prices higher. This causes a couple of thngs. The velocity of the money increases the supply of money thus raising prices. The increase of money velocity causes government to have to spend more for the same services. Banks need more cash money to keep up with the velocity The rapid massive printing of money is not the cause of hyperinflation, however it does cause an accelerating upward spiral. I agree that inflation will probably come soon and in a BAD way.........but..........you asked how this debt crisis will end. I am, in no way, discounting the possibility of deflation in the end. |
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Posted: 5/1/2011 5:36:20 AM EDT
[#41]
You know I was using quality collector firearms for part of my investment, but I can't see them keeping value as good as gold/silver at the moment so I have drastically slowed my firearms purchases. They just aren't inflating as fast as metals.
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Posted: 5/1/2011 5:40:06 AM EDT
[#42]
Quoted:
You know I was using quality collector firearms for part of my investment, but I can't see them keeping value as good as gold/silver at the moment so I have drastically slowed my firearms purchases. They just aren't inflating as fast as metals. I don't want to be a doomsdayer but I honestly feel that, down the road, unless something is DRASTICALLY done, we will see deflation. 
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Posted: 5/1/2011 6:13:13 AM EDT
[#43]
Neither, IMO.
I think it very likely that we WILL get some inflation - beyond "normal" levels (i.e. what we've had for the past couple of decades) over the next several years. But, I'd be very surprised if it reached as high as 10%. My initial concern (back in 2008) was that the U.S. would end up with a "lost decade" like Japan, with stagnation and some possible deflation, but the risk of that seems to be dwindling. Now, as the various manipulations to the economy and the financial sector play out, a moderate degree of inflation seems likey (but, certainly not guaranteed). |
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Posted: 5/1/2011 6:15:01 AM EDT
[#44]
Quoted: A walk through the grocery store with the Wife today left me with no doubt, there is a whole lot of inflation going on. And the gas station, and... I'm not a subscriber to the long running part V, VI, VII thread on "the world's economy is going to end tomorrow the next day thread" but I do have to admit what the government is doing with our money ain't freaking good. |
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Posted: 5/1/2011 6:16:49 AM EDT
[#45]
The tip of inflation started 2 years ago.
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Posted: 5/1/2011 6:17:20 AM EDT
[#46]
Quoted:
Neither, IMO. I think it very likely that we WILL get some inflation - beyond "normal" levels (i.e. what we've had for the past couple of decades) over the next several years. But, I'd be very surprised if it reached as high as 10%. My initial concern (back in 2008) was that the U.S. would end up with a "lost decade" like Japan, with stagnation and some possible deflation, but the risk of that seems to be dwindling. Now, as the various manipulations to the economy and the financial sector play out, a moderate degree of inflation seems likey (but, certainly not guaranteed). DK.......the OP asked how this debt crisis will end. How can it end without inflation and/or deflation? Or, do you see this as not being a debt crisis in the first place? |
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Posted: 5/1/2011 6:28:27 AM EDT
[#47]
My .02 .... You have to push Hyperinflation to get the sheeple to WANT the AMERO
Then you spin it to where that is the only way out. |
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Posted: 5/1/2011 6:44:38 AM EDT
[#48]
Quoted:
My .02 .... You have to Hyperinflation to get the sheeple to WANT the AMERO Then you spin it to where that is the only way out. Cool avatar! 
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Posted: 5/1/2011 7:02:56 AM EDT
[#49]
I see our money as like a roman candle........soaring white hot into the atmosphere (inflation) then burning out and disappearing (Wiemar mark, Zimbabwe, etc.) then a new currency that is severely deflated and a brave new world begins (similar to the 1930's)
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Posted: 5/1/2011 7:07:57 AM EDT
[#50]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Neither, IMO. I think it very likely that we WILL get some inflation - beyond "normal" levels (i.e. what we've had for the past couple of decades) over the next several years. But, I'd be very surprised if it reached as high as 10%. My initial concern (back in 2008) was that the U.S. would end up with a "lost decade" like Japan, with stagnation and some possible deflation, but the risk of that seems to be dwindling. Now, as the various manipulations to the economy and the financial sector play out, a moderate degree of inflation seems likey (but, certainly not guaranteed). DK.......the OP asked how this debt crisis will end. How can it end without inflation and/or deflation? Or, do you see this as not being a debt crisis in the first place? And my answer is that it will end with NEITHER. The debt/deficit crisis is not some insurmountable problem that cannot be solved. It can be solved quite easily, once the politicians decide they WANT TO make the politically unpleasant choices. Of course, they don't want to do that - and both parties are hoping that the OTHER party will committ political suicide by proposing huge entitlement cuts, higher retirement age, and posisbly some tax increases (as a political compromise) to the American public. It's a game of chicken, and both parties are hoping the other will flinch first. The likelihood that anyone will do anything serious or substantial before the 2012 election is slim to none, IMO. However, once politicians can no longer avoid the issue and get down to the politican horse-trading and hard choices, the debt crisis can be handled. But, it REQUIRES substantial cuts of entitlements, as well as raising the Social Security retirement age, cuts in other public programmes, as well as substantial defense cuts. I also think that (unfortunately) some tax increases are inevtiable. The politicians are going to try to avoid having to do this, but it is ultimately inevitable - and they will eventually do it. Once such cuts are in place, the projections for the debt will decrease and the percentage of GDP (currently around 90% IIRC) will drop to manageable levels. This will retain the AAA rating that American government bonds have, and will prevent EITHER of the scenarios in the OP's post (the deflationary crash or the hyperinflation). |
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