The writing’s on the wall in the Republican Party: John Kasich will be the Party’s nominee in 2016, with Marco Rubio as his running mate. Only the media’s delight at continued Trumpian drama is keeping politicos and pundits from coast to coast from stating the obvious.


So as not to belabor the point, here are eight single-sentence reasons Kasich/Rubio is now almost certain to be the Republican ticket in 2016:

1.Donald Trump needs 1,237 delegates to win on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, and not only will he not get to that figure prior to the Convention — he’d need to win well over 50 percent of the remaining delegates to do so, and even during his current run as front-runner he’s only won 46 percent of delegates — he won’t even get close enough to that mark to pass it via uncommitted delegates at the Convention.
2.Ted Cruz and John Kasich staying in the race through Cleveland not only will ensure that Trump can’t get close to 1,237 delegates via primary and caucus votes, it will also ensure that both men have a reasonable delegate total by the time they arrive at the Convention — more than enough to keep both of them in the picture in the view of Convention delegates.
3.Republican Party elders have more than enough clout to make sure that “Rule 40(b)” gets changed prior to or at the Convention, thereby enabling Republicans like John Kasich who haven’t won a majority of delegates in eight states to nevertheless be considered for the nomination.
4.After the first ballot in Cleveland — during which no candidate will have the require delegates for nomination — most of the delegates will be free to vote for whomever they wish, and while Ted Cruz has craftily planted his supporters in many delegations, it’s not nearly enough to get him to 1,237 delegates on the second ballot.
5.Whereas Ted Cruz is loathed by the Republican Party elite, has lost to Hillary Clinton in head-to-head polls 55 percent of the time since November 2015, and has no actual accomplishments in government to point to, John Kasich hasn’t lost a single head-to-head poll to Hillary Clinton in 2016, is broadly if imperfectly acceptable to both Party elites and movement conservatives, and is far and away the most accomplished Republican primary candidate left.
6.Marco Rubio has deliberately held onto his 172 delegates so that he can create a unity ticket with John Kasich in Cleveland — a ticket that will begin with somewhere between 350 and 600 delegates on the first ballot at the Convention, depending upon how many delegates John Kasich wins going forward.
7.Rubio is certain not to give his delegates away for free, nor to give them to his arch-enemies Cruz or Trump, nor to — as some suppose — merely fade into the background when he was and remains among the most ambitious politicians in the Republican Party.
8.A Kasich/Rubio ticket would appeal to both mainstream Republicans (Kasich) and Tea Partiers (Rubio), to both white and Latino voters, to younger voters who want to see someone relatively young on the ticket, to those looking for a ticket whose members run the gamut from executive to legislative experience at both the state and federal levels, and to those who believe all members of a presidential ticket should hail from a major battleground state.

100% guaranteed losing ticket

and 100% would perform better than Trump

Reality. Come back to it.

Trump has millions more supporters than any other candidate and pulls voters from all demographics.

Without Trump we are going to lose.

Trump can't cinch the delegates he needs, is losing the ones he has, and those who voted for contenders that dropped out aren't joining him.

Say goodbye to the republican party.

That is the modus operandi of the GOPe. Losing the WH apparently is ok as long as there is no risk of losing the scam gig they have had for years.

www.wewillwalk.org

I am firmly rooted in reality. the ongoing head to head poll numbers say Trump is total general election suckage.

By a landslide…..

I'm sick of people who don't know the difference between a primary and a general election trying claim Trump is our only hope for defeating Hillary. It's nonsense.

Whether you you support him or not one thing is clear, he has the highest negatives of any candidate, well, pretty much ever. Worse than Hillary. All indications at this point is he the worse possible choice if your criteria includes the ability to win in November.

Hell, he can't even secure a real majority in any state in the primaries. In other words, he doesnt even have strong support among Republican voters.  To the contrary a tremendous number of Republican voters have sworn not to support him should he get the nomination.  A Donald Trump nomination pretty much guarantees an abysmal turnout of Republican voters in November.

So everyone can stop with this foolish idea that Trump is our only hope of winning. The opposite is true. Now personally I think "electability" is a bullshit reason to vote for someone. I pick a candidate based on their principles.  I say support someone who's values you believe in and let the chips fall where they may. If that's Trump for you then go for it. But stop pretending that the Trump juggernaut is some unstoppable force that will roll over Hillary with ease. The much more likely outcome is she will trounce him.

Rubio appeals to tea partiers?? WTF. so much fail in the OP.

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Too late. They've been gone for years.

It's going to be Trump or Cruz at the convention.

Trump doesn't hit 1,237 on the first ballot.

Cruz hits 1,443 on the second ballot.

Ta-da!

Cruz is the nominee.

Don't overthink it.

OP may be right. At least that Trump will not get the nomination.

Trump may run as an independent, or not at all. If he does run, the election goes to the House of Representatives.

They pick some GOPe turkey to be a Obama substitute for four years.

If Trump does not run, a GOPe republican becomes president.  Just avoids the house having to vote.

Whatever happens, even if a Democrat wins, congress gets changed by the really angry voters in 2018. Really changed, like Tea Party takeover changed.

In 4 years we will be going through this again, but with the economy in shambles, Russia rampaging through Eastern Europe, and all hell breaking loose everywhere.

Agree. I won't vote for such a ticket either.

And we lose to Hilldog.

FIFY



 

Nah, Cruz/Martinez will do just fine.

just keep believing the liberal controlled lying media.

it works out so well.

You live in a fantasy world.

Cruz is not going to get the nomination.

I agree with most of this poll, but just puked in my mouth at the Kasich v. Sanders numbers.

Cheech/Chong  2016

I don't believe that's going to happen but, primary results and hurt feels aside, that would be the strongest Republican ticket in decades. Kasich has a resume that stands up to Hillary's (Congressman/businessman/governor vs. Senator/Secretary of State) and eliminates any discussion of "experience." As a moderate, Kasich also has the cross-party appeal to convince independents to vote Republican. Rubio has the nice-boy, say-whatever-he-needs-to-say qualities that make a good vice president.

The OP is right that the Kasich/Rubio ticket would be strong in November but not for the reasons he says. This isn't about who's the best candidate. This is about who is the LEAST objectionable candidate to low-information, barely-engaged voters who don't hold strong views and positions.

The November battle is not one for the heart and soul of the Republican Party. It's a battle for votes in the wishy-washy middle 30-40 percent of the electorate. You don't win the White House by getting your party faithful to follow you. You win the White House by getting more non-political people to decide that your guy is the lesser of two evils. The battle is waged in the middle. Figure out who has the best chance there and you have a winner. Here's a clue: the middle ain't going for Trump or Cruz.

If you want to flip the bird to politics-as-usual, pick Trump but understand that he scares more people than he thrills (a lot more). Cruz is an asshole that rubs so many people the wrong way. No way he earns the sort of warm fuzzies that get the Republicans to the White House. If you want to win, pick somebody with experience and gravitas who can appeal to independents. If not Kasich, who?

Those polls show sanders doing better than Clinton. Those polls tell me Clinton will be indicted.

Kasich is an AWB supporting democrat who has managed to win exactly one state.

Rubio is so hated he can't even win a primary in his own state.

How the fuck could you think either of them is electable?

 

FUCK Kasich and FUCK Rubio. They are both anti-gun fucktarded assholes.

I'm old enough to have owned a black rifle prior to the assault weapons bill. I remember the widespread attitudes about "assault weapons" then and I've watched attitudes change. Black rifles have become mainstream over the past 20 years. I don't hold somebody too accountable for being slow to come on board. A lot has changed and Kasich seems to have come along with the rest of America. According to gun owners in Ohio he's been generally supportive of the RKBA as governor. He certainly has not been a rabid anti-gunner. And frankly, I bet if you go back that many years you'll find that Trump wasn't exactly NRA Man of the Year material either.

As for winning one state/electable, etc. November is different from the primaries. Republicans are going to vote for the Republican candidate. The issue is who the independents and moderates are going to vote for.

We're getting HRC in 2016. Whether we like it or not. And the GOP is actively making it happen, not by accident either.



Cheers!
-JC

No, it's because of Trump that we are going to lose...which was his plan all along.

Newsflash!

pale_pony votes for Hillary Klinton and hell freezes solid! Film at 11:00.

I should have bought some Magpul D-60s when I had the cash. Booh.

Thirty-five percent of the voters will vote for the Republican candidate, regardless of who it is. Trump? Cruz? Rubio? Bush? Doesn't really matter. THey'll hold their nose and punch "R". Thirty-five percent of the voters will vote for the Democrat candidate, regardless of who it is. Clinton vs. Sanders? Who cares? Either is better than a damn Republican, they say. That much is a given.

The question is who do the middle 30 percent vote for. The middle 30 percent isn't paying attention. They couldn't pick John Kasich out of a line-up. They don't feel strongly about any particular issue. They're going to start thinking about the election sometime around October. They will make their decision based on how the candidate looks, how she/he acts and the feels they get from them.

Given that the election is going to be determined by people who put more care into choosing laundry soap who do you want to be your candidate in November?

Does your crystal ball also provide information on stock prices and sports contest winners?

Can it see that the rules committee isn't going to change Rule 40(b)?

The fact that Cruz and Trump (especially Trump) are both losing in the polls to Hillary -- even with her mountains of dirt -- means perhaps a third candidate is in order.

....but hopefully that's Paul Ryan since I can hold my nose and vote for him hoping that his budget cave was just a one-off thing and he really did do it  to let Obama own it and put the focus on the 2016 election.  Kasich?  Fuck him.

THIS.....Presidential elections are won by motivating the base to turn out and peeling off independents.

A Kasich / Rubio ticket is plausible, although unlikely. They would do better against Hillary than either Trump or Cruz. The alternative is some combination that includes Romney or Ryan.

If that is the case then why have both of those 2 not won as much ?  This is a choice that proves the Republicans want a Democrat to win.

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No need for a crystal ball for that.
The rules committees (there are two!) don't have the power to change the rules, as you would know if you had read and understood them.


There is also no need to change the rule.
If the occasion arises, the rules can be suspended.

Is that the mythical Rule 32?

You're so plugged in!   Not one of the multitude of articles I've read on this have even mentioned that, and they've all said that Trump and Cruz will have a super majority on the rules committee.

This  

A lot of conservatives won't vote and Hillary eat will their lunches.

If it comes down to it I will vote for whoever stands between Hillary and the White House but man will that suck...

If you get your information from pundits, you know less than half of what you think you know.
They get their talking points from those who fill their rice bowls.

Anyone can read the rules of the Republican party (if they can find them, which you have admitted is beyond your capability).

The delegates are not required to take direction from candidates on matters which come before the convention.

He has admitted in another thread that he hasn't read the party rules.
He can't even find the rules.

I thought the rules were decided/written by the rules committee a week prior to the convention.  Are there any rules yet? Serious question . . .

I have, why don't you link them for me?

Help a poor Cruzbot out.

So the delegates that the campaigns have selected are going to vote on rules that would hurt their campaigns?

If 8 state's majority of delegates vote to suspend the rules they are suspended............right?

Link

It looks like it takes 8 states majority of delegates to suspend the rules.

So, the delegates in the states Cruz won could suspend the rules and vice versa for Trump.

Heck, any 8 states............so the sky is the limit and I don't understand why the RNC talking heads all are saying there will be no suspension?

Seems like typical bullshit from politicians again...............sure there is a possibility the rules will be suspended.............then..............fuck I don't what happens next, the sky is the limit I guess.

Ha


Let burn to the ground




It will be one of the lowest voter turn out ever