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Posted: 11/3/2023 12:53:21 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By mochaTX: Saving for posterity. Also JPow was scared about 10 year yields. Should have hiked this month and next. Now inflation will simmer for longer. Correctamundo. |
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Posted: 11/3/2023 2:34:07 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryIs that a direct prediction of this?  |
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Posted: 11/3/2023 2:50:58 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By IwasBrian: The more they hike the more they create inflation. _ Either you are wrong or you are founding a new school of economic thought right here in this thread.  I'm in on the ground floor either way! |
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SC, USA
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Posted: 11/3/2023 2:53:51 PM EDT
[#4]
I'm not smart enough to comment on Inflation or the consequences of Economic Policy going forward.
But the market was up big this week. 
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Posted: 11/3/2023 3:06:11 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By sh768: I'm not smart enough to comment on Inflation or the consequences of Economic Policy going forward. But the market was up big this week. https://media.tenor.com/btsAjwoEIuwAAAAC/spaceballs-assholes.gif Definitely a big week. What I'm trying to wrap my head around is how they can keep that party going to put together a meaningful return over the next 12 months. The market is still up against high multiples, higher interest rates, and not fully resolved inflation worries. Can we really achieve a soft landing that allows low inflation, low interest rates, and high multiples to just carry on like 2020 never happened? Or does the Fed just give up on the 2% target rate and settle for something a few points higher to keep Wall Street and DC happy? |
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USA
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Posted: 11/3/2023 3:20:01 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Square66]
[#6]
The market is delusional. Stocks ripping higher with valuations near historical highs, the Fed doing QT and having taken away the low interest punch bowl. No way this doesn’t end badly.
I will keep loading up on 3 month T bills while I wait. |
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Posted: 11/3/2023 3:33:36 PM EDT
[#7]
Looking like the best single week increase since October 2022.
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Posted: 11/3/2023 5:38:59 PM EDT
[Last Edit: spidey07]
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Square66: The market is delusional. Stocks ripping higher with valuations near historical highs, the Fed doing QT and having taken away the low interest punch bowl. No way this doesn’t end badly. I will keep loading up on 3 month T bills while I wait. You do realize we exited bear and are in bull, right? That the crash into bear already happened? Right? That the time to buy was in bear? You do understand this right? Bear is short lived, and we just got out earlier this year. This time isn’t different. |
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Posted: 11/3/2023 6:03:24 PM EDT
[#9]
@mochaTX
You abandon your own thread? |
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Posted: 11/3/2023 6:34:02 PM EDT
[Last Edit: mochaTX]
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spidey07: @mochaTX You abandon your own thread? Nope. One week up because they think the Fed is done hiking. It’s been three months of declines which technically was correction territory. I’m just waiting for 1Q24 for direction. Until unemployment goes up(recession) or .gov stops spending, inflation will continue which means more hikes. |
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USA
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Posted: 11/3/2023 7:09:54 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Square66]
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spidey07: You do realize we exited bear and are in bull, right? That the crash into bear already happened? Right? That the time to buy was in bear? You do understand this right? Bear is short lived, and we just got out earlier this year. This time isn’t different. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spidey07: Originally Posted By Square66: The market is delusional. Stocks ripping higher with valuations near historical highs, the Fed doing QT and having taken away the low interest punch bowl. No way this doesn’t end badly. I will keep loading up on 3 month T bills while I wait. You do realize we exited bear and are in bull, right? That the crash into bear already happened? Right? That the time to buy was in bear? You do understand this right? Bear is short lived, and we just got out earlier this year. This time isn’t different. You have no idea about any of that. Just more perma-bull blathering. Giddy when it goes up then fake giddy when when it goes down cuz “more please.” Valuations are at nose bleed levels, and QT is taking its toll as liquidity is drying up. What happens to those 40% of the companies in the Russell 2000 that are unprofitable when they have to refinance their debt at current rates? Commercial real estate is a shambles. The federal government can’t continue monetizing $2 Trillion deficits as the Treasury watches China and Japan dumping our bonds as yields spike. Nobody wants our paper anymore. 70% of our economy is consumer spending and the consumer is broke. The housing market is locked up with few buyers or sellers at 8% mortgage rates. This market is like a drunken psycho, and at some point all these things will matter. All it’s going to take is a catalyst. |
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Posted: 11/3/2023 7:51:12 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Square66: You have no idea about any of that. Just more perma-bull blathering. Giddy when it goes up then fake giddy when when it goes down cuz “more please.” Valuations are at nose bleed levels, and QT is taking its toll as liquidity is drying up. What happens to those 40% of the companies in the Russell 2000 that are unprofitable when they have to refinance their debt at current rates? Commercial real estate is a shambles. The federal government can’t continue monetizing $2 Trillion deficits as the Treasury watches China and Japan dumping our bonds as yields spike. Nobody wants our paper anymore. 70% of our economy is consumer spending and the consumer is broke. The housing market is locked up with few buyers or sellers at 8% mortgage rates. This market is like a drunken psycho, and at some point all these things will matter. All it’s going to take is a catalyst. Yes a catalyst, i just hope it’s not a 9/11, but a catalyst in our vulnerable economic status after a long run up seems to fuck us. The nation starts to run thin after a long economic run up. 1 is where where we are at, it’s not where you make your most money, 2 is where you make generational wealth. When will we be there? Next year? 5 years from now? Been on a good tear. 
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Posted: 11/3/2023 8:07:10 PM EDT
[Last Edit: spidey07]
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Square66: You have no idea about any of that. Just more perma-bull blathering. Giddy when it goes up then fake giddy when when it goes down cuz “more please.” Valuations are at nose bleed levels, and QT is taking its toll as liquidity is drying up. What happens to those 40% of the companies in the Russell 2000 that are unprofitable when they have to refinance their debt at current rates? Commercial real estate is a shambles. The federal government can’t continue monetizing $2 Trillion deficits as the Treasury watches China and Japan dumping our bonds as yields spike. Nobody wants our paper anymore. 70% of our economy is consumer spending and the consumer is broke. The housing market is locked up with few buyers or sellers at 8% mortgage rates. This market is like a drunken psycho, and at some point all these things will matter. All it’s going to take is a catalyst. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Square66: Originally Posted By spidey07: Originally Posted By Square66: The market is delusional. Stocks ripping higher with valuations near historical highs, the Fed doing QT and having taken away the low interest punch bowl. No way this doesn’t end badly. I will keep loading up on 3 month T bills while I wait. You do realize we exited bear and are in bull, right? That the crash into bear already happened? Right? That the time to buy was in bear? You do understand this right? Bear is short lived, and we just got out earlier this year. This time isn’t different. You have no idea about any of that. Just more perma-bull blathering. Giddy when it goes up then fake giddy when when it goes down cuz “more please.” Valuations are at nose bleed levels, and QT is taking its toll as liquidity is drying up. What happens to those 40% of the companies in the Russell 2000 that are unprofitable when they have to refinance their debt at current rates? Commercial real estate is a shambles. The federal government can’t continue monetizing $2 Trillion deficits as the Treasury watches China and Japan dumping our bonds as yields spike. Nobody wants our paper anymore. 70% of our economy is consumer spending and the consumer is broke. The housing market is locked up with few buyers or sellers at 8% mortgage rates. This market is like a drunken psycho, and at some point all these things will matter. All it’s going to take is a catalyst. Meh. The doom is all so tiresome. And all so so wrong for so so long. I like money. I like my money making more money for me. It youre so sure of you’re predictions what are you doing? I’ve been very clear about what I’m doing. Oh man! The money is awesome! More money! It’s a damn money tree. |
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Posted: 11/3/2023 8:09:12 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Square66: You have no idea about any of that. Just more perma-bull blathering. Giddy when it goes up then fake giddy when when it goes down cuz “more please.” Valuations are at nose bleed levels, and QT is taking its toll as liquidity is drying up. What happens to those 40% of the companies in the Russell 2000 that are unprofitable when they have to refinance their debt at current rates? Commercial real estate is a shambles. The federal government can’t continue monetizing $2 Trillion deficits as the Treasury watches China and Japan dumping our bonds as yields spike. Nobody wants our paper anymore. 70% of our economy is consumer spending and the consumer is broke. The housing market is locked up with few buyers or sellers at 8% mortgage rates. This market is like a drunken psycho, and at some point all these things will matter. All it’s going to take is a catalyst. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Square66: Originally Posted By spidey07: Originally Posted By Square66: The market is delusional. Stocks ripping higher with valuations near historical highs, the Fed doing QT and having taken away the low interest punch bowl. No way this doesn’t end badly. I will keep loading up on 3 month T bills while I wait. You do realize we exited bear and are in bull, right? That the crash into bear already happened? Right? That the time to buy was in bear? You do understand this right? Bear is short lived, and we just got out earlier this year. This time isn’t different. You have no idea about any of that. Just more perma-bull blathering. Giddy when it goes up then fake giddy when when it goes down cuz “more please.” Valuations are at nose bleed levels, and QT is taking its toll as liquidity is drying up. What happens to those 40% of the companies in the Russell 2000 that are unprofitable when they have to refinance their debt at current rates? Commercial real estate is a shambles. The federal government can’t continue monetizing $2 Trillion deficits as the Treasury watches China and Japan dumping our bonds as yields spike. Nobody wants our paper anymore. 70% of our economy is consumer spending and the consumer is broke. The housing market is locked up with few buyers or sellers at 8% mortgage rates. This market is like a drunken psycho, and at some point all these things will matter. All it’s going to take is a catalyst. The market can remain a drunken psyco longer than you can remain solvent.
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USA
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Posted: 11/3/2023 8:25:19 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spidey07: Meh. The doom is all so tiresome. And all so so wrong for so so long. I like money. I like my money making more money for me. It youre so sure of you’re predictions what are you doing? I’ve been very clear about what I’m doing. Oh man! The money is awesome! More money! It’s a damn money tree. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spidey07: Originally Posted By Square66: Originally Posted By spidey07: Originally Posted By Square66: The market is delusional. Stocks ripping higher with valuations near historical highs, the Fed doing QT and having taken away the low interest punch bowl. No way this doesn’t end badly. I will keep loading up on 3 month T bills while I wait. You do realize we exited bear and are in bull, right? That the crash into bear already happened? Right? That the time to buy was in bear? You do understand this right? Bear is short lived, and we just got out earlier this year. This time isn’t different. You have no idea about any of that. Just more perma-bull blathering. Giddy when it goes up then fake giddy when when it goes down cuz “more please.” Valuations are at nose bleed levels, and QT is taking its toll as liquidity is drying up. What happens to those 40% of the companies in the Russell 2000 that are unprofitable when they have to refinance their debt at current rates? Commercial real estate is a shambles. The federal government can’t continue monetizing $2 Trillion deficits as the Treasury watches China and Japan dumping our bonds as yields spike. Nobody wants our paper anymore. 70% of our economy is consumer spending and the consumer is broke. The housing market is locked up with few buyers or sellers at 8% mortgage rates. This market is like a drunken psycho, and at some point all these things will matter. All it’s going to take is a catalyst. Meh. The doom is all so tiresome. And all so so wrong for so so long. I like money. I like my money making more money for me. It youre so sure of you’re predictions what are you doing? I’ve been very clear about what I’m doing. Oh man! The money is awesome! More money! It’s a damn money tree. I said what I’m doing but you didn’t listen. I’m stacking cash into 3 month T bills at 5.5% and laddering them out. Bought a little gold last September as an insurance policy when it was in the $1600s an ounce. I have a good place to park my money while I wait. Higher for longer until something breaks, and it’s going to. |
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USA
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Posted: 11/3/2023 8:26:41 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HRoark87: The market can remain a drunken psyco longer than you can remain solvent. I’m solvent in 3 month T bills at 5.5%. 
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Posted: 11/3/2023 9:41:34 PM EDT
[Last Edit: spidey07]
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Square66: I said what I’m doing but you didn’t listen. I’m stacking cash into 3 month T bills at 5.5% and laddering them out. Bought a little gold last September as an insurance policy when it was in the $1600s an ounce. I have a good place to park my money while I wait. Higher for longer until something breaks, and it’s going to. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Square66: Originally Posted By spidey07: Originally Posted By Square66: Originally Posted By spidey07: Originally Posted By Square66: The market is delusional. Stocks ripping higher with valuations near historical highs, the Fed doing QT and having taken away the low interest punch bowl. No way this doesn’t end badly. I will keep loading up on 3 month T bills while I wait. You do realize we exited bear and are in bull, right? That the crash into bear already happened? Right? That the time to buy was in bear? You do understand this right? Bear is short lived, and we just got out earlier this year. This time isn’t different. You have no idea about any of that. Just more perma-bull blathering. Giddy when it goes up then fake giddy when when it goes down cuz “more please.” Valuations are at nose bleed levels, and QT is taking its toll as liquidity is drying up. What happens to those 40% of the companies in the Russell 2000 that are unprofitable when they have to refinance their debt at current rates? Commercial real estate is a shambles. The federal government can’t continue monetizing $2 Trillion deficits as the Treasury watches China and Japan dumping our bonds as yields spike. Nobody wants our paper anymore. 70% of our economy is consumer spending and the consumer is broke. The housing market is locked up with few buyers or sellers at 8% mortgage rates. This market is like a drunken psycho, and at some point all these things will matter. All it’s going to take is a catalyst. Meh. The doom is all so tiresome. And all so so wrong for so so long. I like money. I like my money making more money for me. It youre so sure of you’re predictions what are you doing? I’ve been very clear about what I’m doing. Oh man! The money is awesome! More money! It’s a damn money tree. I said what I’m doing but you didn’t listen. I’m stacking cash into 3 month T bills at 5.5% and laddering them out. Bought a little gold last September as an insurance policy when it was in the $1600s an ounce. I have a good place to park my money while I wait. Higher for longer until something breaks, and it’s going to. Ok. So you parked cash earning less than inflation. Waiting for a crash in equities that already happened. Good luck! I’ll keep feeding my compounding money tree. I like money. Surely the crash will come! That already happened. I just feel it! |
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Posted: 11/4/2023 1:09:47 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spidey07: Meh. The doom is all so tiresome. And all so so wrong for so so long. I like money. I like my money making more money for me. It youre so sure of you’re predictions what are you doing? I’ve been very clear about what I’m doing. Oh man! The money is awesome! More money! It’s a damn money tree. I used to be a doomer. DOOM But @Spidey07 can laugh all the way to the bank. I still think there is a crash coming, but I am not bright enough to time it. Time in the market wins |
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Posted: 11/4/2023 2:17:09 PM EDT
[#19]
I have a friend who was smart enough to get out of the market in 2007 but he never got back in. His capital was around $1 million. All those years making 1 percent on t-bills....
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Posted: 11/4/2023 2:23:26 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By woodsie: Definitely a big week. What I'm trying to wrap my head around is how they can keep that party going to put together a meaningful return over the next 12 months. The market is still up against high multiples, higher interest rates, and not fully resolved inflation worries. Can we really achieve a soft landing that allows low inflation, low interest rates, and high multiples to just carry on like 2020 never happened? Or does the Fed just give up on the 2% target rate and settle for something a few points higher to keep Wall Street and DC happy? I just read that Maersk is laying off 10,000 people. That doesn't sound good in the grand scheme of things when it comes to the global economy. |
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Posted: 11/4/2023 2:29:22 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Waldo: I just read that Maersk is laying off 10,000 people. That doesn't sound good in the grand scheme of things when it comes to the global economy. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Waldo: Originally Posted By woodsie: Definitely a big week. What I'm trying to wrap my head around is how they can keep that party going to put together a meaningful return over the next 12 months. The market is still up against high multiples, higher interest rates, and not fully resolved inflation worries. Can we really achieve a soft landing that allows low inflation, low interest rates, and high multiples to just carry on like 2020 never happened? Or does the Fed just give up on the 2% target rate and settle for something a few points higher to keep Wall Street and DC happy? I just read that Maersk is laying off 10,000 people. That doesn't sound good in the grand scheme of things when it comes to the global economy. Not a big surprise. Shipping lead times have fallen WAY off since last year. I ship to Asia, Europe, and South America every week via sea freight. I'm in automotive and other consumer products and to say things have slowed down would be an understatement. Our volumes have dropped about in half since March with zero loss of customers or programs. We make all the same stuff as before, just a lot less of it right now. I am very surprised that the greater economy isn't yet reflecting a recession at this point but maybe it just hasn't all trickled down yet. We saw a similar drop prior to the 2008 crisis. |
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Posted: 11/4/2023 2:34:20 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GunLvrPHD: I have a friend who was smart enough to get out of the market in 2007 but he never got back in. His capital was around $1 million. All those years making 1 percent on t-bills.... Well, obviously, you can’t do that. Even safe, boring stocks like XOM and PM, were paying 6%+ dividends. Dividend Aristocrats were paying 3.5% and better. |
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Posted: 11/4/2023 2:37:00 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By woodsie: Not a big surprise. Shipping lead times have fallen WAY off since last year. I ship to Asia, Europe, and South America every week via sea freight. I'm in automotive and other consumer products and to say things have slowed down would be an understatement. Our volumes have dropped about in half since March with zero loss of customers or programs. We make all the same stuff as before, just a lot less of it right now. I am very surprised that the greater economy isn't yet reflecting a recession at this point but maybe it just hasn't all trickled down yet. We saw a similar drop prior to the 2008 crisis. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By woodsie: Originally Posted By Waldo: Originally Posted By woodsie: Definitely a big week. What I'm trying to wrap my head around is how they can keep that party going to put together a meaningful return over the next 12 months. The market is still up against high multiples, higher interest rates, and not fully resolved inflation worries. Can we really achieve a soft landing that allows low inflation, low interest rates, and high multiples to just carry on like 2020 never happened? Or does the Fed just give up on the 2% target rate and settle for something a few points higher to keep Wall Street and DC happy? I just read that Maersk is laying off 10,000 people. That doesn't sound good in the grand scheme of things when it comes to the global economy. Not a big surprise. Shipping lead times have fallen WAY off since last year. I ship to Asia, Europe, and South America every week via sea freight. I'm in automotive and other consumer products and to say things have slowed down would be an understatement. Our volumes have dropped about in half since March with zero loss of customers or programs. We make all the same stuff as before, just a lot less of it right now. I am very surprised that the greater economy isn't yet reflecting a recession at this point but maybe it just hasn't all trickled down yet. We saw a similar drop prior to the 2008 crisis. Good data point. Please keep them coming. |
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Posted: 11/4/2023 4:14:25 PM EDT
[Last Edit: FALARAK]
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Waldo: I just read that Maersk is laying off 10,000 people. That doesn't sound good in the grand scheme of things when it comes to the global economy. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Waldo: Originally Posted By woodsie: Definitely a big week. What I'm trying to wrap my head around is how they can keep that party going to put together a meaningful return over the next 12 months. The market is still up against high multiples, higher interest rates, and not fully resolved inflation worries. Can we really achieve a soft landing that allows low inflation, low interest rates, and high multiples to just carry on like 2020 never happened? Or does the Fed just give up on the 2% target rate and settle for something a few points higher to keep Wall Street and DC happy? I just read that Maersk is laying off 10,000 people. That doesn't sound good in the grand scheme of things when it comes to the global economy. There will be more pain coming. Debt refinance cycles are slow, we have not seen the broad impact of rising interest rates on commercial debt yet, to really impact quarterly earnings. The only problem is always knowing when to get out, and when to get back in. You only have to be right, twice. I have seen three big bottoms (2002, 2009, 2020) and never once called it right. I distinctly remember being at the bottom each time, and was 100% positive there was a lot more room to drop, and would have never entered the market with extra capital at any of those points. |
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Posted: 11/4/2023 5:02:00 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 2tired2run]
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By woodsie: Definitely a big week. What I'm trying to wrap my head around is how they can keep that party going to put together a meaningful return over the next 12 months. The market is still up against high multiples, higher interest rates, and not fully resolved inflation worries. Can we really achieve a soft landing that allows low inflation, low interest rates, and high multiples to just carry on like 2020 never happened? Or does the Fed just give up on the 2% target rate and settle for something a few points higher to keep Wall Street and DC happy? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By woodsie: Originally Posted By sh768: I'm not smart enough to comment on Inflation or the consequences of Economic Policy going forward. But the market was up big this week. https://media.tenor.com/btsAjwoEIuwAAAAC/spaceballs-assholes.gif Definitely a big week. What I'm trying to wrap my head around is how they can keep that party going to put together a meaningful return over the next 12 months. The market is still up against high multiples, higher interest rates, and not fully resolved inflation worries. Can we really achieve a soft landing that allows low inflation, low interest rates, and high multiples to just carry on like 2020 never happened? Or does the Fed just give up on the 2% target rate and settle for something a few points higher to keep Wall Street and DC happy? I'm in this boat. Fed will not get close to 2% for several years unless they absolutely crater the economy and they don't have the balls for that. At 3.5% unemployment people will keep demanding higher wages to catch up to the 10% yoy we had a while back home prices etc. So inhalation will run higher for a while. There's also still a ton of infrastructure spending going on. I'm in the electrical industry and infrastructure manufacturers are backed up 2 years right now. I'd say late 24 things get ugly fed capitulates and lowers rates with inflation at 3-4% |
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Posted: 11/4/2023 6:50:12 PM EDT
[#26]
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Posted: 11/4/2023 7:03:00 PM EDT
[Last Edit: spidey07]
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By wookie1562:
When dollars are worth less than before of course the dollar figure of cash would be high. Fucking duh. It’s like idiots saying “omg! Consumer debt is hitting all time highs!” Inflation. How do it work. |
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Posted: 11/4/2023 7:21:30 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By FALARAK: The only problem is always knowing when to get out, and when to get back in. You only have to be right, twice. I have seen three big bottoms (2002, 2009, 2020) and never once called it right. I distinctly remember being at the bottom each time, and was 100% positive there was a lot more room to drop, and would have never entered the market with extra capital at any of those points. "You ain't seen bad yet, but it's coming." |
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NC, USA
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Posted: 11/4/2023 7:26:13 PM EDT
[Last Edit: MFP_4073]
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By wookie1562:
don't follow Warren Buffets lead the dude is a multi multi-BILLIONAIRE -- what he does with his money is absolutely not relevant to us. think about it -- if you had $150 BILLION in a portfolio -- would you CARE AT ALL about making more ?? no -- it would be unnecessary to take ANY risk. inflation would be ZERO concern. you'd make over $6 BILLION a year just in Treasuries... plus he makes a lot of wrong calls -- his actual investment portfolio is DOWN this year while the SP500 is UP 15% YTD. in fact he has even stated -- PERFORMANCE is not something he cares about. he focuses on earnings / income. he's playing a completely different game than we are. |
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Posted: 11/4/2023 7:37:02 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MFP_4073: don't follow Warren Buffets lead the dude is a multi multi-BILLIONAIRE -- what he does with his money is absolutely not relevant to us. think about it -- if you had $150 BILLION in a portfolio -- would you CARE AT ALL about making more ?? no -- it would be unnecessary to take ANY risk. inflation would be ZERO concern. you'd make over $6 BILLION a year just in Treasuries... plus he makes a lot of wrong calls -- his actual investment portfolio is DOWN this year while the SP500 is UP 15% YTD. in fact he has even stated -- PERFORMANCE is not something he cares about. he focuses on earnings / income. he's playing a completely different game than we are. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MFP_4073: Originally Posted By wookie1562:
don't follow Warren Buffets lead the dude is a multi multi-BILLIONAIRE -- what he does with his money is absolutely not relevant to us. think about it -- if you had $150 BILLION in a portfolio -- would you CARE AT ALL about making more ?? no -- it would be unnecessary to take ANY risk. inflation would be ZERO concern. you'd make over $6 BILLION a year just in Treasuries... plus he makes a lot of wrong calls -- his actual investment portfolio is DOWN this year while the SP500 is UP 15% YTD. in fact he has even stated -- PERFORMANCE is not something he cares about. he focuses on earnings / income. he's playing a completely different game than we are. The last sentence…absolutely. His goals are not our goals. Meaning “our” is small fry retail investor. Why one would apply what he does to one’s own money is fucking stupid. |
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Posted: 11/4/2023 7:42:39 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MFP_4073: don't follow Warren Buffets lead the dude is a multi multi-BILLIONAIRE -- what he does with his money is absolutely not relevant to us. think about it -- if you had $150 BILLION in a portfolio -- would you CARE AT ALL about making more ?? no -- it would be unnecessary to take ANY risk. inflation would be ZERO concern. you'd make over $6 BILLION a year just in Treasuries... plus he makes a lot of wrong calls -- his actual investment portfolio is DOWN this year while the SP500 is UP 15% YTD. in fact he has even stated -- PERFORMANCE is not something he cares about. he focuses on earnings / income. he's playing a completely different game than we are. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MFP_4073: Originally Posted By wookie1562:
don't follow Warren Buffets lead the dude is a multi multi-BILLIONAIRE -- what he does with his money is absolutely not relevant to us. think about it -- if you had $150 BILLION in a portfolio -- would you CARE AT ALL about making more ?? no -- it would be unnecessary to take ANY risk. inflation would be ZERO concern. you'd make over $6 BILLION a year just in Treasuries... plus he makes a lot of wrong calls -- his actual investment portfolio is DOWN this year while the SP500 is UP 15% YTD. in fact he has even stated -- PERFORMANCE is not something he cares about. he focuses on earnings / income. he's playing a completely different game than we are. You could Not Be More Wrong. Now, if you want to point out negatives, you could say that he’s almost 100, and his sidekick is even Older. We can safely say that His best years are behind him. |
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Posted: 11/4/2023 8:05:11 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MFP_4073: don't follow Warren Buffets lead the dude is a multi multi-BILLIONAIRE -- what he does with his money is absolutely not relevant to us. think about it -- if you had $150 BILLION in a portfolio -- would you CARE AT ALL about making more ?? no -- it would be unnecessary to take ANY risk. inflation would be ZERO concern. you'd make over $6 BILLION a year just in Treasuries... plus he makes a lot of wrong calls -- his actual investment portfolio is DOWN this year while the SP500 is UP 15% YTD. in fact he has even stated -- PERFORMANCE is not something he cares about. he focuses on earnings / income. he's playing a completely different game than we are. BRK is not down on either YTD or 1-yr basis. They're now earning $15k/minute without risk. The risk-free rate hasn't been consequential in recent decades but many will learn the significance. It's the reason BRK took 40 billion on the nose last quarter. |
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Posted: 11/4/2023 8:18:09 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By wookie1562: BRK is not down on either YTD or 1-yr basis. They're now earning $15k/minute without risk. The risk-free rate hasn't been consequential in recent decades but many will learn the significance. It's the reason BRK took 40 billion on the nose last quarter. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By wookie1562: Originally Posted By MFP_4073: don't follow Warren Buffets lead the dude is a multi multi-BILLIONAIRE -- what he does with his money is absolutely not relevant to us. think about it -- if you had $150 BILLION in a portfolio -- would you CARE AT ALL about making more ?? no -- it would be unnecessary to take ANY risk. inflation would be ZERO concern. you'd make over $6 BILLION a year just in Treasuries... plus he makes a lot of wrong calls -- his actual investment portfolio is DOWN this year while the SP500 is UP 15% YTD. in fact he has even stated -- PERFORMANCE is not something he cares about. he focuses on earnings / income. he's playing a completely different game than we are. BRK is not down on either YTD or 1-yr basis. They're now earning $15k/minute without risk. The risk-free rate hasn't been consequential in recent decades but many will learn the significance. It's the reason BRK took 40 billion on the nose last quarter. So how many shares do you own? |
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Posted: 11/7/2023 5:26:22 PM EDT
[#34]
Sp500 and nasdaq close on longest winning streak since November 2021.
Run bull. Run. We are still in a bull market. No correction in sight. |
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Posted: 11/7/2023 5:36:50 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spidey07: So how many shares do you own? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spidey07: Originally Posted By wookie1562: Originally Posted By MFP_4073: don't follow Warren Buffets lead the dude is a multi multi-BILLIONAIRE -- what he does with his money is absolutely not relevant to us. think about it -- if you had $150 BILLION in a portfolio -- would you CARE AT ALL about making more ?? no -- it would be unnecessary to take ANY risk. inflation would be ZERO concern. you'd make over $6 BILLION a year just in Treasuries... plus he makes a lot of wrong calls -- his actual investment portfolio is DOWN this year while the SP500 is UP 15% YTD. in fact he has even stated -- PERFORMANCE is not something he cares about. he focuses on earnings / income. he's playing a completely different game than we are. BRK is not down on either YTD or 1-yr basis. They're now earning $15k/minute without risk. The risk-free rate hasn't been consequential in recent decades but many will learn the significance. It's the reason BRK took 40 billion on the nose last quarter. So how many shares do you own? I own about 300 brk-b. Going for more, but I bet the price will go down when WB croaks or retires. |
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Posted: 11/7/2023 6:25:59 PM EDT
[#36]
Originally Posted By Waldo: I just read that Maersk is laying off 10,000 people. That doesn't sound good in the grand scheme of things when it comes to the global economy. Maersk will follow ZIM. Zim ran its contracts out and had to deal with much lower non-contract rates. 2024, iirc, Maersk contracts are renegotiated at lower shipping rates. Eventually they will start to come back up. |
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Posted: 11/7/2023 7:48:06 PM EDT
[Last Edit: spidey07]
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BillofRights: I own about 300 brk-b. Going for more, but I bet the price will go down when WB croaks or retires. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BillofRights: Originally Posted By spidey07: Originally Posted By wookie1562: Originally Posted By MFP_4073: don't follow Warren Buffets lead the dude is a multi multi-BILLIONAIRE -- what he does with his money is absolutely not relevant to us. think about it -- if you had $150 BILLION in a portfolio -- would you CARE AT ALL about making more ?? no -- it would be unnecessary to take ANY risk. inflation would be ZERO concern. you'd make over $6 BILLION a year just in Treasuries... plus he makes a lot of wrong calls -- his actual investment portfolio is DOWN this year while the SP500 is UP 15% YTD. in fact he has even stated -- PERFORMANCE is not something he cares about. he focuses on earnings / income. he's playing a completely different game than we are. BRK is not down on either YTD or 1-yr basis. They're now earning $15k/minute without risk. The risk-free rate hasn't been consequential in recent decades but many will learn the significance. It's the reason BRK took 40 billion on the nose last quarter. So how many shares do you own? I own about 300 brk-b. Going for more, but I bet the price will go down when WB croaks or retires. I’m about 30% total net worth value in aapl. Still buying more. I’ll just be the slow compounding turtle. Cash is trash. Op made his post, feared correction. That’s when you make most money. Buy low. He sells. I buy. He loses. I win. History is a cruel mistress. |
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Posted: 11/7/2023 9:15:16 PM EDT
[#38]
As always. Doomer crickets.
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USA
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Posted: 11/7/2023 9:24:15 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spidey07: I’m about 30% total net worth value in aapl. Still buying more. I’ll just be the slow compounding turtle. Cash is trash. Op made his post, feared correction. That’s when you make most money. Buy low. He sells. I buy. He loses. I win. History is a cruel mistress. Who said he sold? I only know of one person who sold and pulled their money and it worked out in his favor. I, myself, am a doomer. I live for the coming crash and wish to see it all burn. But I haven't sold anything, on the contrary I keep buying every single week and payday. |
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Posted: 11/7/2023 9:38:29 PM EDT
[Last Edit: mochaTX]
[#40]
Lol I traded 40% of high value growth stock for high yield bonds this summer.
When the stocks were at highs. And the market entered technical correction. Still holding until 1Q24 to see how the over extended consumer with job layoffs plays out with US debt spending. Still buying stock as it comes if it seems value oriented but it’s slow. For example I’ve been buying INTC since last year. It’s paid off. Especially since they will be a beneficiary of defense chip contracts in the future. It will be stable growth on the grind up. I’m thinking about shorting NVDA as China export ban weighs on profits along with cap ex becoming more expensive. Not to mention being way overpriced. This will lead to other competitors like AMD taking up a value approach. AAPL will continue to disappoint. Their VR headset will flop, over extended consumer won’t have enough money for the top line high profit items and accessories. They might get a bump as they put ads in Apple+ subs to boost revenue but their media sucks overall. So I’ve stopped buying them as well. TSLA is a wildcard and always has been. Yes the run up has been nice, and being the only viable battery electric vehicle with margins is always good as other companies can’t really compete. Cybertruck will be novelty. Thinking about moving into discounted commercial real estate as their debts come due. But I think commercial has more room to fall further. It’s not cheap money cycle anymore. These things play out very differently, value and picking are harder as the zombie companies get weeded out. |
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Posted: 11/7/2023 10:16:16 PM EDT
[Last Edit: spidey07]
[#41]
We never entered correction this year.
Your OP said correction coming. After that we had best winning streak since 2021. I predict sp500 4500 before year end 2023 |
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Posted: 11/7/2023 10:49:42 PM EDT
[Last Edit: exponentialpi]
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spidey07: We never entered correction this year. Your OP said correction coming. After that we had best winning streak since 2021. I predict sp500 4500 before year end 2023 Quoting for posterity. And about that no correction…. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/10/29/stock-market-correction-territory-meaning/71349135007/  Attached File |
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Posted: 11/7/2023 10:52:32 PM EDT
[Last Edit: spidey07]
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By exponentialpi: Quoting for posterity. And about that no correction…. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/10/29/stock-market-correction-territory-meaning/71349135007/ https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/200878/IMG_4038_jpeg-3019576.JPG Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By exponentialpi: Originally Posted By spidey07: We never entered correction this year. Your OP said correction coming. After that we had best winning streak since 2021. I predict sp500 4500 before year end 2023 Quoting for posterity. And about that no correction…. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/10/29/stock-market-correction-territory-meaning/71349135007/ https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/200878/IMG_4038_jpeg-3019576.JPG Closing price. Do you even know what a correction is? Keep googling. |
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Posted: 11/7/2023 11:11:58 PM EDT
[#44]
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Posted: 11/8/2023 6:16:38 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spidey07: Closing price. Do you even know what a correction is? Keep googling. It was technically correction territory. Wasn’t it supposed to be above 4800 by now? Lol |
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Posted: 11/8/2023 3:54:28 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spidey07: Closing price. Do you even know what a correction is? Keep googling. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spidey07: Originally Posted By exponentialpi: Originally Posted By spidey07: We never entered correction this year. Your OP said correction coming. After that we had best winning streak since 2021. I predict sp500 4500 before year end 2023 Quoting for posterity. And about that no correction…. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/10/29/stock-market-correction-territory-meaning/71349135007/ https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/200878/IMG_4038_jpeg-3019576.JPG Closing price. Do you even know what a correction is? Keep googling. I don’t need to keep googling. I’ve dealt with this for most of my career. Close on July 31, 2023 was 4588.96. Close on October 27, 2023 was 4117.37. That’s a 10.3% drop, aka a correction. But new all time highs any day now. Right? |
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Posted: 11/8/2023 4:49:36 PM EDT
[Last Edit: spidey07]
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By exponentialpi: I don’t need to keep googling. I’ve dealt with this for most of my career. Close on July 31, 2023 was 4588.96. Close on October 27, 2023 was 4117.37. That’s a 10.3% drop, aka a correction. But new all time highs any day now. Right? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By exponentialpi: Originally Posted By spidey07: Originally Posted By exponentialpi: Originally Posted By spidey07: We never entered correction this year. Your OP said correction coming. After that we had best winning streak since 2021. I predict sp500 4500 before year end 2023 Quoting for posterity. And about that no correction…. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/10/29/stock-market-correction-territory-meaning/71349135007/ https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/200878/IMG_4038_jpeg-3019576.JPG Closing price. Do you even know what a correction is? Keep googling. I don’t need to keep googling. I’ve dealt with this for most of my career. Close on July 31, 2023 was 4588.96. Close on October 27, 2023 was 4117.37. That’s a 10.3% drop, aka a correction. But new all time highs any day now. Right? Thanks for the “correction”.  I thought we dipped into it during trading but didn’t close in it. Either way, extremely short lived. And yes we are guaranteed to hit all time highs any day in the future. |
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Posted: 11/9/2023 5:17:17 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spidey07: Thanks for the “correction”. I thought we dipped into it during trading but didn’t close in it. Either way, extremely short lived. And yes we are guaranteed to hit all time highs any day in the future. Lol. Next year, 10 years, any day in the future! |
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USA
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Posted: 11/9/2023 10:07:24 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spidey07: Ok. So you parked cash earning less than inflation. Waiting for a crash in equities that already happened. Good luck! I’ll keep feeding my compounding money tree. I like money. Surely the crash will come! That already happened. I just feel it! Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spidey07: Originally Posted By Square66: Originally Posted By spidey07: Originally Posted By Square66: Originally Posted By spidey07: Originally Posted By Square66: The market is delusional. Stocks ripping higher with valuations near historical highs, the Fed doing QT and having taken away the low interest punch bowl. No way this doesn’t end badly. I will keep loading up on 3 month T bills while I wait. You do realize we exited bear and are in bull, right? That the crash into bear already happened? Right? That the time to buy was in bear? You do understand this right? Bear is short lived, and we just got out earlier this year. This time isn’t different. You have no idea about any of that. Just more perma-bull blathering. Giddy when it goes up then fake giddy when when it goes down cuz “more please.” Valuations are at nose bleed levels, and QT is taking its toll as liquidity is drying up. What happens to those 40% of the companies in the Russell 2000 that are unprofitable when they have to refinance their debt at current rates? Commercial real estate is a shambles. The federal government can’t continue monetizing $2 Trillion deficits as the Treasury watches China and Japan dumping our bonds as yields spike. Nobody wants our paper anymore. 70% of our economy is consumer spending and the consumer is broke. The housing market is locked up with few buyers or sellers at 8% mortgage rates. This market is like a drunken psycho, and at some point all these things will matter. All it’s going to take is a catalyst. Meh. The doom is all so tiresome. And all so so wrong for so so long. I like money. I like my money making more money for me. It youre so sure of you’re predictions what are you doing? I’ve been very clear about what I’m doing. Oh man! The money is awesome! More money! It’s a damn money tree. I said what I’m doing but you didn’t listen. I’m stacking cash into 3 month T bills at 5.5% and laddering them out. Bought a little gold last September as an insurance policy when it was in the $1600s an ounce. I have a good place to park my money while I wait. Higher for longer until something breaks, and it’s going to. Ok. So you parked cash earning less than inflation. Waiting for a crash in equities that already happened. Good luck! I’ll keep feeding my compounding money tree. I like money. Surely the crash will come! That already happened. I just feel it! How’s your money tree doing the last 2 years since December 2021? I will take the “below inflation” rate of return hit on my capital with no risk at 5.5% verses exposure to the magnificent 7 which are way over extended cuz AI. AI is the next dot com bust with 7 stocks driving the entire S&P 500. |
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Posted: 11/10/2023 6:54:46 PM EDT
[#50]
4400.
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