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Originally Posted By konger: My wild ass guess is that this was a test run and to exhaust defense systems supplies. The total cost for one nights defense of Israel was also likely much more than the 1.5 billion dollar estimate given. We can’t afford too many of those nights and they know that. So no, they probably view this as a strategic victory in their long term plans. View Quote So using this logic, Iran has enough toys to deplete the US, UK, Israel, and NATO. "They probably view this as a strategic victory." Congrats on your strategic victory. Inshallah. |
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The only thing they learned is 300+ missiles inbound is not even close to saturating an alert defense.
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I love this forum!
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Originally Posted By Scratch45: The Military Industrial Complex does not rest on it's laurels. It is a beast that NEVER sleeps. For all the complaining about Military Industrial Complex, it does bear fruit. Sometimes, really good fruit View Quote Most of our stuff is kick ass but we just don’t have large quantities of it |
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Deckard “nobody wants to know the truth, nobody” Cobra Kai Johnny Lawrence “she’s hot and all those other things” Tucker Carlson 1/10/2018 “I used to be a liberatarian until Google”https://mobile.twitter.com/Henry_Gunn
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Originally Posted By Homernomer: As evidenced by failure? Gonna need to do better than that. Although I realize, if you ARE one (which would explain your stance) you probably aren't allowed to say more than you already have. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Homernomer: Originally Posted By Thrasymachus: Iran wasn't exactly trying hard. As evidenced by failure? Gonna need to do better than that. Although I realize, if you ARE one (which would explain your stance) you probably aren't allowed to say more than you already have. I have zero idea what you are accusing me of being. Can you communicate your ideas in a intelligible fashion? Iran telegraphed that they were going to attack days before they attacked, and did an attack that was easily countered. They needed to show a response to appease their domestic population and to show some level of deterrence to other regional actors. If they did any real damage to Israel then they would be getting into a protracted conflict in which they would they would lose badly to Israel militarily. If they wanted to damage Israel, then a lower tech attack through their proxies would have probably been more effective. |
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What are you talking about Iran built a 6th gen fighter out of plywood.
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I may not go down in history, but I will go down on your little sister.
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Buy some accounts, a large percentage of their ballistic missiles failed to perform. I’ve seen 50% failed to get off the ground.
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Ol Joe Biden sure is in the middle on this one. His Muslim boss and voter base has a problem with him siding with Israel while secretly helping their Muslim brother IRAN while not pissing off the rest of America. Joe is a worthless old man to them and us. I think IRAN's proxies are going to ramp up attacks big time. Israel now has a reason to bomb Iranian soil. Step aside Joe the adults are in charge. IRAN doesn't want to get nuked so we'll see how long it takes for Israel to hit IRAN's leadership and nuke facilities with conventional means.
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What we don’t know is the number of missiles and drones that were knocked down by electronic warfare gear.
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Originally Posted By Homernomer: So using this logic, Iran has enough toys to deplete the US, UK, Israel, and NATO. "They probably view this as a strategic victory." Congrats on your strategic victory. Inshallah. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Homernomer: Originally Posted By konger: My wild ass guess is that this was a test run and to exhaust defense systems supplies. The total cost for one nights defense of Israel was also likely much more than the 1.5 billion dollar estimate given. We can’t afford too many of those nights and they know that. So no, they probably view this as a strategic victory in their long term plans. So using this logic, Iran has enough toys to deplete the US, UK, Israel, and NATO. "They probably view this as a strategic victory." Congrats on your strategic victory. Inshallah. Yes, I’ve read estimates that Iran has a considerable amount of these cheap disposable toys to continue barrages nightly until Israel and its allied partners are out of expensive defense missiles. Not my victory and I’m not cheerleading them. I’m sure they wanted/expected to do more damage than they did and are probably disappointed in that fact. I’m just looking at the situation and making a guess like everyone else here. It does make sense though. At least to me. |
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Originally Posted By 8nbait: Originally Posted By Drsalee: Persians don't get embarrassed View Quote View Quote While running footage of a Texas wildfire. |
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Originally Posted By Scratch45: I bet Iran is embarrassed 99% of their sh*t got intercepted and destroyed. Hard to be a respectable bully when you get kicked in the balls like that. Also, a good reminder that the U.S. Military is without peer. Our NATO allies and Israel also, although they lack the quantity the U.S. enjoys (and some of the BIGGER toys, like strategic bombers, subs, and aircraft carriers). But their tech is... 1st world level quality. We have seen this with the equipment that is being used against the Russians in Ukraine, and again with Iran. Even acknowledging Irans lower tech, and a lot of it just crashed... still an incredible feat of military technology. I am fairly certain the same thing would happen with Western military vs China. Although they would be a tougher nut to crack. They haven't been in a shooting war in how long, and I think their military is over hyped. View Quote At this point, I think Iran's relieved that 99% were intercepted. They got to look bignk and stronk for sympathetic audiences without doing enough damage to risk an immediate, crippling response. |
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Originally Posted By Coffin-Nail: Wait till someone like China makes these cheap Kamikaze drones at scale and we're having to expend several hundred thousand dollar missiles against thousands of couple hundred dollar drones. It's not something that scales up in our favor imo. View Quote Iran's was complete success, economically. Hell, the US taxpayer paid for the iranian, israeli, and us missles. The military industrial complex is the only winner. |
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"…unrivaled fervor for killing..."
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Originally Posted By FreefallRet: What makes you think we won't use drones? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By FreefallRet: Originally Posted By Coffin-Nail: Wait till someone like China makes these cheap Kamikaze drones at scale and we're having to expend several hundred thousand dollar missiles against thousands of couple hundred dollar drones. It's not something that scales up in our favor imo. Compare the production capacity to make cheap drones between the US and China. They probably have more than 100 times the manufacturing capacity of the US for those products. Sure, the US could make drones, but they will be swamped and outnumbered by what the Chinese can make. |
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It's no different than the time we slap-chopped an Iranian General and their response was to hit some empty areas of a U.S. base in Iraq.
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Everything posted above is factual. Maybe.
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Originally Posted By Scratch45: I bet Iran is embarrassed 99% of their sh*t got intercepted and destroyed. Hard to be a respectable bully when you get kicked in the balls like that. s minions will be back..l Also, a good reminder that the U.S. Military is without peer. Our NATO allies and Israel also, although they lack the quantity the U.S. enjoys (and some of the BIGGER toys, like strategic bombers, subs, and aircraft carriers). But their tech is... 1st world level quality. We have seen this with the equipment that is being used against the Russians in Ukraine, and again with Iran. Even acknowledging Irans lower tech, and a lot of it just crashed... still an incredible feat of military technology. I am fairly certain the same thing would happen with Western military vs China. Although they would be a tougher nut to crack. They haven't been in a shooting war in how long, and I think their military is over hyped. View Quote I don't disagree with you about China, but never, ever take it for granted. As soon as you buy into your own propaganda, you will die by it. Yes, Israel and our allies really kicked Iran's ass. It was humiliations galore. They will lick their wounds, return to their camel dung enriched bunkers and come up with more lethal weapons. No doubt some traitors in our midst will sell them some of our best weapons. One thing you can bank on, Iran will be back. |
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The Devil owns the fence line.
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Back of the envelope estimate is something like 50 to 100 tons of high explosives in those salvos.
Without nearly omniscient surveillance capabilities, you'd never know this stuff was inbound. You would be foolish to think that Iran sucks. Reality is that we, in conjunction with Israel, are steps ahead of them. For now. If they don't have functioning nuclear weapons, it's only because they have chosen not to have them. Syria would have had sufficient fissile material by 2011, had the Israelis not intervened. Warfare doesn't sit still. People don't stop wanting you dead just because you choose not to think about them. |
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As said in the other thread.. shooting down $10,000 rockets with $5000000 missiles is not sustainable.
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Listen, if fucking goats and little boys doesn't bother them................
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Originally Posted By Drsalee: We spend enormous resources on “smart” munitions. Our days of carpet bombing have passed. We are far too civilized. View Quote Imagine a big bomb truck with a belly full of GPS guided munitions flying kinda close to a city. It would have to be quite a sight watching all those bombs kinda glide in to specific points and nowhere else. |
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The “Three Stupid” Rule: “Do not go to stupid places, with stupid people, and do stupid things”
Religion is a handy device for keeping the philosophically deficient in line. |
No. The Iranian gov immediately sent a “and that’s all we’re going to send” message after
It’s a display culture and the gov has a base to pander to. They get to look tough without actually starting something they can’t finish |
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Let us never forget, government has no resources of its own. Government can only give to us what it has previously taken from us.
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Originally Posted By TurtlesAlltheWayDown: No. The Iranian gov immediately sent a “and that’s all we’re going to send” message after It’s a display culture and the gov has a base to pander to. They get to look tough without actually starting something they can’t finish View Quote I bet the delay in sending them was based on days of indecision and the message was to cover their asses. |
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Let us never forget, government has no resources of its own. Government can only give to us what it has previously taken from us.
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Keep in mind it wasn’t just America.
It was Jordan, France and Israel too. Would never have been as successful without them |
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Iran’s attack is blunted via superhuman effort and billions worth of the best air defense technology available, which somehow leads some of you to conclude Iran didn’t really want to hit Israel all along? Please take me down the train of logic that ends there. Launching hundreds of weapons doesn’t seem like a “oops, just kidding” type of move.
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Lots of talk…let’s see if there’s a second act to this high school drama.
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Originally Posted By Scratch45: The only thing they learned is 300+ missiles inbound is not even close to saturating an alert defense. View Quote It was pretty dumb if they thought drones and cruise missiles would saturate the air defenses in a way that let their ballistic missiles through. That might work in Ukraine, but Israel has a much more dense IADS, has separate systems to engage cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, and have a several hundred mile deep buffer zone where they can operate aircraft with impunity. |
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Originally Posted By lokifox: Which $10,000 missiles were fired from Iran at Israel? I’ll buy a bunch of them if they’re that cheap. View Quote The idea of bankrupting your enemies instead of defeating them on the battlefield is arguably how we beat the Soviets. There's also a strong argument to be made that was the real victory of the terrorists on 9/11 considering how much it cost us in blood and dollars in the decades that followed. So how much did those Iranian missiles and drones cost? |
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Originally Posted By Scratch45: I guess. If by bombing the Jews, you mean nothing destroyed and no one killed or injured. It just makes Iran look like they talk the talk but can't walk the walk. You mean that kind of saving face? We will see what happens if Israel retaliates for the Iran retaliation. View Quote Is Iran a closed society still? If so, the government gets to tell the story - like Russia-gate here. |
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Celebrating the remains of the Second Amendment one Fine Firearm at a Time.
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Originally Posted By TNC: The whole thing is like ritual warfare where they dress up, march around, shout at the enemy then go home. View Quote /this to a degree. I spent most of my 20's floating around Gonzo Station off the coast of Yemen. I sat in on the classified intel briefs and there was talk of Saddam's own people growing restless, the Iraq-Iran war grinding to a stalemate, and the treasury straining. His infrastructure suffered and there a general "someone has to pay" attitude. Billions of dollars, lots of spent youth, and nothing to show ... let's invade Kuwait! |
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Celebrating the remains of the Second Amendment one Fine Firearm at a Time.
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Originally Posted By Drsalee: We spend enormous resources on “smart” munitions. Our days of carpet bombing have passed. We are far too civilized. View Quote The cool thing is we take "dumb" bombs and upgrade them to GPS/laser guided glide bombs just screwing in different nose cone and tail sections. |
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Celebrating the remains of the Second Amendment one Fine Firearm at a Time.
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How is launching 300 missiles at a country "posturing"?
Because in the rules of engagement IIRC that's an act of war. Not sure what more would be needed. A sternly worded letter from the counsel general delivered in the capital? |
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Celebrating the remains of the Second Amendment one Fine Firearm at a Time.
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Callsign: Doc. For my wild hair and DeLorean
OH, USA
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I'd be surprised if China and Russia didn't just get a lot of useful data on our interdiction systems in an event whose cost was very lopsided in their favor. I doubt this is over.
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"We're all new here, kid. The old ones are either dead or in the hospital. What the hell did you expect, a two week pass to Paris? Get in line and do what you're told, or you'll be dead before sunup."
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Callsign: Doc. For my wild hair and DeLorean
OH, USA
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Originally Posted By CTYC313: The idea of bankrupting your enemies instead of defeating them on the battlefield is arguably how we beat the Soviets. There's also a strong argument to be made that was the real victory of the terrorists on 9/11 considering how much it cost us in blood and dollars in the decades that followed. So how much did those Iranian missiles and drones cost? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By CTYC313: Originally Posted By lokifox: Which $10,000 missiles were fired from Iran at Israel? I’ll buy a bunch of them if they’re that cheap. The idea of bankrupting your enemies instead of defeating them on the battlefield is arguably how we beat the Soviets. There's also a strong argument to be made that was the real victory of the terrorists on 9/11 considering how much it cost us in blood and dollars in the decades that followed. So how much did those Iranian missiles and drones cost? Assuming they can be mass produced in China, you'd be surprised at how cheaply they could probably be made. |
"We're all new here, kid. The old ones are either dead or in the hospital. What the hell did you expect, a two week pass to Paris? Get in line and do what you're told, or you'll be dead before sunup."
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Callsign: Doc. For my wild hair and DeLorean
OH, USA
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Originally Posted By L_JE: Back of the envelope estimate is something like 50 to 100 tons of high explosives in those salvos. Without nearly omniscient surveillance capabilities, you'd never know this stuff was inbound. You would be foolish to think that Iran sucks. Reality is that we, in conjunction with Israel, are steps ahead of them. For now. If they don't have functioning nuclear weapons, it's only because they have chosen not to have them. Syria would have had sufficient fissile material by 2011, had the Israelis not intervened. Warfare doesn't sit still. People don't stop wanting you dead just because you choose not to think about them. View Quote I have met a number of very smart Iranian engineers and scientists. Underestimating Iranians because of their nationality would be a silly mistake. |
"We're all new here, kid. The old ones are either dead or in the hospital. What the hell did you expect, a two week pass to Paris? Get in line and do what you're told, or you'll be dead before sunup."
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Originally Posted By Scratch45:The purpose of such a package is to have the slower cruise missiles and drones distract and overwhelm air defenses in order to allow the ballistic missiles, which are much harder to shoot down, to reach their targets. View Quote The missile and aircraft names have changed but not the types of challenges faced since I retired. |
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Celebrating the remains of the Second Amendment one Fine Firearm at a Time.
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Originally Posted By brownbomber: I wonder if some enterprising fellow could invent an "anti-drone drone" that could be vectored to eliminate slow-flying kamikaze drones. It would be the low-cost analogue of the iron dome missiles. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By brownbomber: Originally Posted By Coffin-Nail: Wait till someone like China makes these cheap Kamikaze drones at scale and we're having to expend several hundred thousand dollar missiles against thousands of couple hundred dollar drones. It's not something that scales up in our favor imo. I wonder if some enterprising fellow could invent an "anti-drone drone" that could be vectored to eliminate slow-flying kamikaze drones. It would be the low-cost analogue of the iron dome missiles. Bring back the spitfires and wing tipping. Plus they're good for CAS for the ears we actually fight. |
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mene mene tekel upharsin
That others may think |
Originally Posted By Undaunted: Obiden gave them $16b and the US is intimating a limitation on future munitions to Israel. Iran can repeat that attack many times. How many time can Israel meet that challenge? Whatever Israel does, it needs to be damn decisive. View Quote They'll nuke the Chinese and Russian armies in the valley of Megiddo soon enough. |
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mene mene tekel upharsin
That others may think |
Originally Posted By L_JE: Back of the envelope estimate is something like 50 to 100 tons of high explosives in those salvos. Without nearly omniscient surveillance capabilities, you'd never know this stuff was inbound. You would be foolish to think that Iran sucks. Reality is that we, in conjunction with Israel, are steps ahead of them. For now. If they don't have functioning nuclear weapons, it's only because they have chosen not to have them. Syria would have had sufficient fissile material by 2011, had the Israelis not intervened. Warfare doesn't sit still. People don't stop wanting you dead just because you choose not to think about them. View Quote Don't forget to thank the cyber nerds too. |
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mene mene tekel upharsin
That others may think |
Originally Posted By lokifox: Which $10,000 missiles were fired from Iran at Israel? I’ll buy a bunch of them if they’re that cheap. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By lokifox: Originally Posted By bionicmonkey: As said in the other thread.. shooting down $10,000 rockets with $5000000 missiles is not sustainable. Which $10,000 missiles were fired from Iran at Israel? I’ll buy a bunch of them if they’re that cheap. More like the $200 drones they're hitting our shipping with in the Red Sea while we shoot them down with the 5 $9000000000000billion dollar interceptors we have left. |
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mene mene tekel upharsin
That others may think |
Originally Posted By Paul: The cool thing is we take "dumb" bombs and upgrade them to GPS/laser guided glide bombs just screwing in different nose cone and tail sections. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Paul: Originally Posted By Drsalee: We spend enormous resources on “smart” munitions. Our days of carpet bombing have passed. We are far too civilized. The cool thing is we take "dumb" bombs and upgrade them to GPS/laser guided glide bombs just screwing in different nose cone and tail sections. We only have 7 of those left. |
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mene mene tekel upharsin
That others may think |
Originally Posted By Scratch45: From the big thread: Thanks @michigan66 The Iranian April 13 missile-drone attack on Israel was very likely intended to cause significant damage below the threshold that would trigger a massive Israeli response. The attack was designed to succeed, not to fail. The strike package was modeled on those the Russians have used repeatedly against Ukraine to great effect. The attack caused more limited damage than intended likely because the Iranians underestimated the tremendous advantages Israel has in defending against such strikes compared with Ukraine. The Iranians will learn lessons from this strike and work to improve their abilities to penetrate Israeli defenses over time as the Russians have done in repeated strike series against Ukraine. The strike consisted of approximately 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles. The drones were launched well before the ballistic missiles were fired, very likely in the expectation that they would arrive in Israel’s air defense window at about the same time as the cruise missiles and drones. The Russians have used such an approach against Ukraine repeatedly. The purpose of such a package is to have the slower cruise missiles and drones distract and overwhelm air defenses in order to allow the ballistic missiles, which are much harder to shoot down, to reach their targets. Israel’s air defense system has a number of obvious advantages over Ukrainian air defense, but the full implications of some of those advantages might well have been unclear to Iranian strike planners View Quote There seem to be a few details this alludes to while everyone is celebrating the "embarrassing failure". The drones were slow and launched in a manner easily seen - and they even left the fucking lights on. Why are you able to see their lights on in some of the videos? While the ballistics missiles timed to launch when the drones were accessible to the air defenses, did indeed make it through and hit the military base that was actually targeted. And impacted. We are told "damage was light", which is of course certainly absolutely true - because that's what we're told - while being told to laugh at Iran's pathetic drone attack. Which was designed to be a pathetic attack, and used to freak everyone out about DRrronnennNNNEESS!! While the missiles (which are really fast drones with payloads), did actually do their job. Iran had to strike back. But if they overtly strike back just a little toooooo hard, that might not go so well for them. Where instead they are far more effective funding shady shit like.. well, 1000 dudes with $100 hanggliders and $200 AK's that killed thousands; while Iran can say "Oh wow, did you guys see that?? Wow. Well, we're all over here not even in the same direction, so couldn't have been us". |
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Israel is 22,000km^2 while Ukraine is 600,000km^2 in size. You can have the same amount of AA and do much better in a small area. Throw in an advanced system like Iron Dome and US military assets, and you're doing even better.
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Originally Posted By Coffin-Nail: Wait till someone like China makes these cheap Kamikaze drones at scale and we're having to expend several hundred thousand dollar missiles against thousands of couple hundred dollar drones. It's not something that scales up in our favor imo. View Quote |
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"During the second 100 days, we will design, build and open a library dedicated to my first 100 days." -Barack Obama, May 9 2009
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Originally Posted By AR4U: Just swarm them with smaller, cheaper drones. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By AR4U: Originally Posted By Coffin-Nail: Wait till someone like China makes these cheap Kamikaze drones at scale and we're having to expend several hundred thousand dollar missiles against thousands of couple hundred dollar drones. It's not something that scales up in our favor imo. They're called mirvs. |
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mene mene tekel upharsin
That others may think |
Originally Posted By Paul: How is launching 300 missiles at a country "posturing"? Because in the rules of engagement IIRC that's an act of war. Not sure what more would be needed. A sternly worded letter from the counsel general delivered in the capital? View Quote I've seen estimates they have over 3000 ready to go, that makes 120 missiles a pretty small strike. They launched for just 5h, then called a lid. If they wanted to go hot, they could have hit a LOT harder. But they are dominating ME via proxy fights, and by ME I mean biden's retarded ME foreign policy, so why would they want to go hot and increase their risk? |
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This seems to me like a probing attack to see how we react and how our systems detect and intercept their equipment.
Both sides get lots of data on their enemy's capabilities. |
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Originally Posted By wisbiker67: what better way for our adversaries, to study our military in action, as well as drawing down our munitions even further. the whole thing is a dog and pony show imho View Quote I agree. It's a good way to test your enemies capabilities and gather intel. I'm sure they spent a lot less money sending their junk that what it took to defend Israel. Edit to add: when/if Israel retaliates and connects, the Iranians can play the victim card. |
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