I suspect it may have been bullet failure. Those old Winchesters weren't bonded core to jacket, and some were open base. So what you are seeing is the hole from the jacket that separated from the core or the core from the jacket. It may even have been loaded with the core hanging out of the jacket. Like some of the other posters said it doesn't look like a normal tumble.
Like everyone is saying, you shouldn't have trouble with your twist barrel at that weight. That's why everyone is looking for other answers.
Make sure your barrel is good via inspection, buy some new ammo, and try again. You might want to check barrel twist, as it's possible it's out of spec or different from marked. You could have a 1 in 12 or 1 in 14 that's just not had problems yet. (Often when a barrel is new, the slower spin will work with heavier weights, until the lands get worn in.)