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Posted: 6/12/2007 2:55:07 PM EDT
With the exception of company stock these are my available options in my 401k help me decipher how to pick amongst them.  

Helpful info
39 years old
Own house free and clear valued at $190.00
have $9000.00 left to pay on vehicle note
Owe about $8000.00 in credit card debt that I am paying down and thinking of moving to a home equity loan.
Currently only make about $16.00Hr.
Contribute 6% of my paycheck to the 401k which is matched by company.
Have $65,000 in Fidelity IRA
Have $3000 in Fidelity Roth IRA
Have $10,000 invested in this 401k

ffafx, fffcx, fffdx, fffex, ffffx, vwnax, fslcx, fdivx, temwx, fdgfrx, scvix, trbcx, dodbx, pttrx,, fsiix, vscix, vitsx, fusvx, fbdix





















Link Posted: 6/17/2007 6:27:09 PM EDT
[#1]

Quoted:
have $9000.00 left to pay on vehicle note
Owe about $8000.00 in credit card debt that I am paying down and thinking of moving to a home equity loan.


you have to kill off that $8K in CC debt first.  that is an drag anchor on your finances that you just don't need.  you know this, i'm not telling you something new here, right?  get on it.

contribute, as best you can, to your 401k -- especially if there is any kind of match.  BUT there is no way to make a guaranteed 15% or so in your 401k; yet this is exactly what your credit card company is making off of you.  this you need to fix, and you rectify it by cutting expenses (and working OT?) until the $8K CC debt is gone.

as for your 401k, i looked over your offerings (which are quite good, btw -- kudos to your company and plan administrator for looking out for the employees best interests).  for both your current $10K balance and also for future contributions, i would recommend
40% DODGX,
30% FSIIX,
30% VSCIX.  

i ran this through Morningstar's Instant Xray Tool (link) and the results are attached below.  this is a good, inexpensive, well-balanced portfolio that you can "fire and forget" for at least a couple of years.  at 39 you should be fairly aggresive inside a tax-advantaged portfolio, and the construction below will do you fine.

ar-jedi







Link Posted: 6/17/2007 8:03:02 PM EDT
[#2]
What were the factors that led you to the ones you suggested?  What is the primary info you are looking at within each offering?
Link Posted: 6/18/2007 3:31:01 PM EDT
[#3]

Quoted:
What were the factors that led you to the ones you suggested?  What is the primary info you are looking at within each offering?


i used a MkII Mod1 dart -- isn't that what you requested in the thread title?  

let's talk this through.  here's what i know:


Quoted:
39 years old
Own house free and clear valued at $190.00
have $9000.00 left to pay on vehicle note
Owe about $8000.00 in credit card debt that I am paying down and thinking of moving to a home equity loan.
Currently only make about $16.00Hr.
Contribute 6% of my paycheck to the 401k which is matched by company.
Have $65,000 in Fidelity IRA
Have $3000 in Fidelity Roth IRA
Have $10,000 invested in this 401k


first... 39 years old means you have a good 25 years to retire (whatever that word means to you).  using the "rule of thumb" of 120-(your age) = percentage of equities, that would lead us to a ~80% stock/20% bonds as an overall asset allocation.  HOWEVER, that is a lilttle conservative in your case as you have no mortgage debt whatsoever.  so we can get a little more aggressive here since you have essentially $200K in "house cash".  moreover, from your ar15.com login i'm guessing you may have a gov't pension there somewhere down the road.

moving on... ordinarily, an investor would look at his/her tax advantaged accounts as one big portfolio.  in other words, you would take the Fido IRA ($65K), the Fido Roth IRA ($3K), and your 401k ($10K), and in your mind bundle it up into a $78K pool.  you would then allocate your investrments over that entire pool, as if it was all in a single account.  that might lead you to, for example, put your entire 401k and Fido Roth IRA into FSIIX, and then split your Fido IRA into DODGX and VSCIX + some more FSIIX to ensure enough foreign coverage.  

now then, you didn't tell us what was in your two IRA's, so i had to make a "mini-portfolio" out of your 401k given the constraints above (the list of funds + $10K in 401k assets).  for $10K, 3 or 4 funds is the maximum possible -- otherwise minimum balances (typ $2500) get in the way.  so i attempted to construct a well-diversified portfolio using 3 or 4 funds from your list.

we know a couple of things about DODGX: (1) Dodge and Cox is an excellent fund house with very astute managers; (2) DODGX has an excellent long term record; (3) DODGX is a very diverse, "go anywhere" value fund, and (4) DODFX does better in down markets than any index fund ever could (see graph you provided above, years 2000-2004, and compare with other funds).  given these data points, and knowing that the market is a bit more than fairly valued right now, DODGX makes a good "core fund".  it will not kill you if the bulls go on vacation for the next six months while the fed plays with interest rates.  

if we plug DODGX by itself into M* Instant Xray, we see that the only style boxes that get filled are the large cap (LC), across the top of the 9 box square.  but we need some mid cap (MC) and small cap (SC) exposure.  hunting through your fund list, we come across VSCIX, which has a nice mix of MC and SC.  adding this in a 60/40 proportion to DODGX leads a nice balance in the style box.  but, inspecting the foreign holdings, we see very little.  why put all of your money in a heated US market when 60% of the world's equities lie outside of our borders?  moreover, with a falling dollar, by holding foreign stocks we can make some money on just the currency exchange.  

FSIIX completes the trio.  it brings diverse international holdings into the portfolio, and by adjusting the mix of DODGX, VSCIX, and FSIIX, we can get to a balance that seems right...



65% domestic/cash, 35% foreign, a value tilt to the style box, 40% of the portfolio in the MC/SC boxes, 60% in the LC boxes, and approximately equal values in the three columns.  this is a good start.  

moreover, we see from...



ER=0.26 (= cheap!), stock sector concentrations are more or less aligned with what you'd expect (in other words, this portfolio is not "energy-heavy" or "light on healthcare", etc), and based on the Fwd P/E the portfolio is somewhat "cheaper" (0.98) than the S&P 500, yet the projected EPS is somewhat higher (1.03).  this tells use that we *should* outperform the S&P 500 over the long term, if things go rationally.  

---

now we should talk about some shortfalls of this simple portfolio.  i believe that there is only one...

the investing community these days talks about BRIC: brazil, russia, india, and china.  these are the "emerging markets" and, in theory, their economies will grow significantly over the next 20+ years.  so money is pouring into BRIC funds and ETF's as investors try to buy a chunk of the growth.  your portfolio has very litle of BRIC.  see the World Regions section of the output above.  ideally, your BRIC exposure might be 5-10% of your portfolio.  you can augment your 401k international holdings by purchasing a broad "BRIC-y" ETF like VWO in one of your IRA accounts.  

for more BRIC info, see, for example,
etf.seekingalpha.com/article/27263
etf.seekingalpha.com/article/35476

remember -- these EM funds/ETF's are LONG TERM holdings -- perfect for your 401k or IRA.  buy them and SHUT THE DOOR.  do not attempt to mingle with them on three month intervals.  there will be ups, there will be downs.  mate with them for 5 years, and then review where you are.  (note: then again, if we go to war with China, you may want to consider the moral implications of ownership of "enemy" stocks).  

---

remember though: KISS.  investing is like robbing a bank: keep the plan simple, don't make any sudden movements, don't listen to the noises outside, and most importantly, LEAVE WITH THE MONEY.

hope that helps.  

ar-jedi

ETA:
it may be useful/education to compare the M* Instant Xray outputs above to the corresponding info in the "4 fund portfolio" i constructed in this thread,
ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=133&t=531982
specifically,
losdos.dyndns.org:8080/public/stocks/arfcom-4funds-10apr2007-instantxray.jpg

Link Posted: 6/24/2007 9:40:57 PM EDT
[#4]

you are WELCOME.

ar-jedi

Link Posted: 7/2/2007 4:36:11 AM EDT
[#5]
height=8
Quoted:
you are WELCOME.

ar-jedi



I'll give a big thank-you to ar-jedi.  That was informative to see how you picked those funds. My situation and 401k numbers are different so I will choose a different balance but I guess there isn't really any secret to choosing the funds, just look for the right mix and decent performance numbers.
Link Posted: 7/4/2007 5:25:06 PM EDT
[#6]

Quoted:
Awesome advice AR-Jedi!!!

but---He doesn't have DODGX available.  He's got DOGBX.  

FWIW, it holds essentially the same stocks as DODGX, but also has a 28.5% bond holding.  I'm surprised it's available in your 401K, as it is closed to most new investors.  It's a good fund.  Morningstar.com has some great portfolio analysis tools.



it's actually DODBX, not DOGBX as you wrote above.  but, good catch, and point taken.  always good to have another pair of eyes on the project.  

many Dodge and Cox funds are "soft"-closed in that they will not accept new investors, but institutional accounts (401k, 403b, etc) which already had D&C closed funds within their plans can add new contributors (aka employees).  

of course, there is always the "back door".  get a D&C fund holder to gift you some shares of a closed fund, and you are henceforth an existing shareholder.  then contribute away.  in this sense, there is no such thing as a "closed" fund -- if you have money and contacts you can buy into anything.  ain't that the truth...

ar-jedi

Link Posted: 7/4/2007 6:13:06 PM EDT
[#7]
I did not include my IRA information as this question was 401k specific, however I should have at least mentioned that I already own DODGX at a cost per share of $116.93 and am up 45.71% since I bought in to the fund.  It is obvious that I would want to have my 401k my IRA and my Roth IRA working together, but I must also only buy the funds allowed under the 401k options.

I would love to throw my IRA and Roth holdings into this conversation, but with that level of detail I would be better served to have a sit down conversation with someone at Fidelity.  Rather than assuming someone might have interest in continuing their day job after hours here.  I feel that I probably have far to many mutual funds and stocks for the ammount of money I have in the accounts.

10 Mutual funds 3 stocks and far too much money sitting it out in Fidelity cash reserves on the side only getting simple interest in my IRA alone.each fund only having 3000 to 4000 original buy in..
Link Posted: 7/5/2007 11:40:22 AM EDT
[#8]
Damn I just learned a lot from this thread!
Link Posted: 7/7/2007 6:53:42 AM EDT
[#9]

Quoted:
I would love to throw my IRA and Roth holdings into this conversation, but with that level of detail I would be better served to have a sit down conversation with someone at Fidelity.  


Fidelity will do that once per year for you, for free.  contact them via their website (email or use the "IM a rep" feature) or call their customer service line and request a portfolio review.

ar-jedi

Link Posted: 7/7/2007 8:18:01 AM EDT
[#10]

Quoted:
Damn I just learned a lot from this thread!



That's because ar-jedi is THE MAN when it comes to this.  Just about every post I've seen from him in the bus and inv forum has been of a similar caliber.
Link Posted: 7/7/2007 3:10:17 PM EDT
[#11]
In my 401K through Fidelity and have 4% plus company match split 50/50 between the Fidelity Small Cap Fund and the Fidelity Div. International Fund. I have used these funds for about 2 years and have done alright, I do not have the exact number handy but I have not lost money on them.
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