Quoted: What were the factors that led you to the ones you suggested? What is the primary info you are looking at within each offering? |
i used a MkII Mod1 dart -- isn't that what you requested in the thread title?
let's talk this through. here's what i know:
Quoted: 39 years old Own house free and clear valued at $190.00 have $9000.00 left to pay on vehicle note Owe about $8000.00 in credit card debt that I am paying down and thinking of moving to a home equity loan. Currently only make about $16.00Hr. Contribute 6% of my paycheck to the 401k which is matched by company. Have $65,000 in Fidelity IRA Have $3000 in Fidelity Roth IRA Have $10,000 invested in this 401k |
first... 39 years old means you have a good 25 years to retire (whatever that word means to you). using the "rule of thumb" of 120-(your age) = percentage of equities, that would lead us to a ~80% stock/20% bonds as an overall asset allocation. HOWEVER, that is a lilttle conservative in your case as you have no mortgage debt whatsoever. so we can get a little more aggressive here since you have essentially $200K in "house cash". moreover, from your ar15.com login i'm guessing you may have a gov't pension there somewhere down the road.
moving on... ordinarily, an investor would look at his/her tax advantaged accounts as one big portfolio. in other words, you would take the Fido IRA ($65K), the Fido Roth IRA ($3K), and your 401k ($10K), and in your mind bundle it up into a $78K pool. you would then allocate your investrments over that entire pool, as if it was all in a single account. that might lead you to, for example, put your entire 401k and Fido Roth IRA into FSIIX, and then split your Fido IRA into DODGX and VSCIX + some more FSIIX to ensure enough foreign coverage.
now then, you didn't tell us what was in your two IRA's, so i had to make a "mini-portfolio" out of your 401k given the constraints above (the list of funds + $10K in 401k assets). for $10K, 3 or 4 funds is the maximum possible -- otherwise minimum balances (typ $2500) get in the way. so i attempted to construct a well-diversified portfolio using 3 or 4 funds from your list.
we know a couple of things about DODGX: (1) Dodge and Cox is an excellent fund house with very astute managers; (2) DODGX has an excellent long term record; (3) DODGX is a very diverse, "go anywhere" value fund, and (4) DODFX does better in down markets than any index fund ever could (see graph you provided above, years 2000-2004, and compare with other funds). given these data points, and knowing that the market is a bit more than fairly valued right now, DODGX makes a good "core fund". it will not kill you if the bulls go on vacation for the next six months while the fed plays with interest rates.
if we plug DODGX by itself into M* Instant Xray, we see that the only style boxes that get filled are the large cap (LC), across the top of the 9 box square. but we need some mid cap (MC) and small cap (SC) exposure. hunting through your fund list, we come across VSCIX, which has a nice mix of MC and SC. adding this in a 60/40 proportion to DODGX leads a nice balance in the style box. but, inspecting the foreign holdings, we see very little. why put all of your money in a heated US market when 60% of the world's equities lie outside of our borders? moreover, with a falling dollar, by holding foreign stocks we can make some money on just the currency exchange.
FSIIX completes the trio. it brings diverse international holdings into the portfolio, and by adjusting the mix of DODGX, VSCIX, and FSIIX, we can get to a balance that seems right...
65% domestic/cash, 35% foreign, a value tilt to the style box, 40% of the portfolio in the MC/SC boxes, 60% in the LC boxes, and approximately equal values in the three columns. this is a good start.
moreover, we see from...
ER=0.26 (= cheap!), stock sector concentrations are more or less aligned with what you'd expect (in other words, this portfolio is not "energy-heavy" or "light on healthcare", etc), and based on the Fwd P/E the portfolio is somewhat "cheaper" (0.98) than the S&P 500, yet the projected EPS is somewhat higher (1.03). this tells use that we *should* outperform the S&P 500 over the long term, if things go rationally.
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now we should talk about some shortfalls of this simple portfolio. i believe that there is only one...
the investing community these days talks about BRIC: brazil, russia, india, and china. these are the "emerging markets" and, in theory, their economies will grow significantly over the next 20+ years. so money is pouring into BRIC funds and ETF's as investors try to buy a chunk of the growth. your portfolio has very litle of BRIC. see the World Regions section of the output above. ideally, your BRIC exposure might be 5-10% of your portfolio. you can augment your 401k international holdings by purchasing a broad "BRIC-y" ETF like
VWO in one of your IRA accounts.
for more BRIC info, see, for example,
etf.seekingalpha.com/article/27263etf.seekingalpha.com/article/35476remember -- these EM funds/ETF's are LONG TERM holdings -- perfect for your 401k or IRA. buy them and SHUT THE DOOR. do not attempt to mingle with them on three month intervals. there will be ups, there will be downs. mate with them for 5 years, and then review where you are. (note: then again, if we go to war with China, you may want to consider the moral implications of ownership of "enemy" stocks).
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remember though: KISS. investing is like robbing a bank: keep the plan simple, don't make any sudden movements, don't listen to the noises outside, and most importantly, LEAVE WITH THE MONEY.
hope that helps.
ar-jedi
ETA:
it may be useful/education to compare the M* Instant Xray outputs above to the corresponding info in the "4 fund portfolio" i constructed in this thread,
ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=133&t=531982specifically,
losdos.dyndns.org:8080/public/stocks/arfcom-4funds-10apr2007-instantxray.jpg