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Posted: 4/16/2024 9:05:41 AM EDT
Really? I'm surprised by these numbers.




Source:
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/market-perspective


ETA:

Oil production has increased in North America and away from geopolitical hot spots

First, global oil production is now less concentrated in the Middle East than it has been since the 1970s. Production from Saudi Arabia and Russia has slowed since the mid-2000s, while U.S. production has more than doubled thanks to the shale boom of the 2010s, which turned the U.S. into a net energy exporter for the first time since at least 1949. In that same decade, Canada began to extract crude from the oil sands in Alberta, boosting its production. Despite sanctions from the EU and the U.S. following the invasion in Ukraine, oil from Russia, the world's third-largest producer, has continued to flow, now largely to Indian and Chinese refineries.

Second, OPEC members now have ample spare production capacity. When production is tight, exporting countries have little room to respond to increases in demand or shocks that can curtail output and cause prices to spike. The EIA estimates that OPEC's core members have around 4.5 million barrels per day of spare capacity, a sizable cushion roughly equivalent to the total output of the fifth largest oil producer in the world.

Third, while oil demand is expected to continue to rise along with economic growth, the pace of demand growth is predicted to be much slower than in recent years, according to EIA forecasts. That implies the balance between oil supply and demand might remain tilted toward oversupply for the coming years. Notably, China, the world's second largest oil consumer, is likely to see soft demand in the near term as its economy struggles to find momentum.

Despite current geopolitical risks, these additional factors suggest that the price of oil seems unlikely to sustainably appreciate further, derail disinflation, or curb economic growth.
View Quote
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:07:44 AM EDT
[#1]
Where's the *
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:12:10 AM EDT
[#2]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Where's the *
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I'm looking for it, too.

10% production growth during Biden's term? That just sounds wrong.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:12:17 AM EDT
[#3]
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:13:30 AM EDT
[#4]
If there is all this oil why is fuel so GD expensive? Are they not selling that shit domestic or something?
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:13:56 AM EDT
[#5]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:

I'm looking for it, too.

10% production growth during Biden's term? That just sounds wrong.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
Where's the *

I'm looking for it, too.

10% production growth during Biden's term? That just sounds wrong.



https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus2&f=m


Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:14:05 AM EDT
[#6]
How much are we exporting? Most ? Because I bet we’re exporting most of it.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:16:21 AM EDT
[#7]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
If there is all this oil why is fuel so GD expensive? Are they not selling that shit domestic or something?
View Quote



Pepperidge farm remembers 2019 when average gas prices were $2.60 at the pump and US O&G companies were going bankrupt and shutting their doors.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:16:23 AM EDT
[#8]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
View Quote View All Quotes
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Where's the *

I'm looking for it, too.

10% production growth during Biden's term? That just sounds wrong.



https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus2&f=m



"Field Production."

Does it include offshore rigs?
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:17:38 AM EDT
[#9]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
If there is all this oil why is fuel so GD expensive? Are they not selling that shit domestic or something?
View Quote


Wars and rumors of wars...
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:22:26 AM EDT
[#10]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:

"Field Production."

Does it include offshore rigs?
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Where's the *

I'm looking for it, too.

10% production growth during Biden's term? That just sounds wrong.



https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus2&f=m



"Field Production."

Does it include offshore rigs?


Probably. The rub here is that the line graph is telling regardless.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:22:31 AM EDT
[#11]
Quoted:
If there is all this oil why is fuel so GD expensive? Are they not selling that shit domestic or something?
View Quote


That isn't how global markets work and it isn't how oil refining/distillation works.

All oil is traded on a global market and is sold to the highest bidder. In addition, oil refineries are finely tuned to work with a single type of oil.

The US refineries have been shifting to lighter oils like those produced domestically but it is a slow process and no one wants a refinery offline.


https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41653

ETA: An easier explanation https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/america-produces-enough-oil-to-meet-its-needs-so-why-do-we-import-crude
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:23:05 AM EDT
[#12]
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Quoted:
If there is all this oil why is fuel so GD expensive? Are they not selling that shit domestic or something?
View Quote


Fed money printer.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:26:17 AM EDT
[#13]
Sigh.

It’s like I predicted this… 2? Years ago.


Also this thread is fresh.  And the comments in it already gold.


Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:28:44 AM EDT
[#14]
Shouldn't we be a member of OPEC then ?
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:36:29 AM EDT
[#15]
‘Merica!
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:39:32 AM EDT
[#16]
Domestic refineries aren't optimized to process domestic oil, but rather foreign oil. Foreign refineries aren't optimized to process foreign oil, but rather domestic oil...



...or so I read in GD some while ago
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:41:08 AM EDT
[#17]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Domestic refineries aren't optimized to process domestic oil, but rather foreign oil. Foreign refineries aren't optimized to process foreign oil, but rather domestic oil...



...or so I read in GD some while ago
View Quote



It’s more complicated than that.


Literally. It’s called Complexity Index. Or, technically the Nelson Complexity Index.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:41:53 AM EDT
[#18]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


That isn't how global markets work and it isn't how oil refining/distillation works.

All oil is traded on a global market and is sold to the highest bidder. In addition, oil refineries are finely tuned to work with a single type of oil.

The US refineries have been shifting to lighter oils like those produced domestically but it is a slow process and no one wants a refinery offline.


https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41653
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
If there is all this oil why is fuel so GD expensive? Are they not selling that shit domestic or something?


That isn't how global markets work and it isn't how oil refining/distillation works.

All oil is traded on a global market and is sold to the highest bidder. In addition, oil refineries are finely tuned to work with a single type of oil.

The US refineries have been shifting to lighter oils like those produced domestically but it is a slow process and no one wants a refinery offline.


https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41653


Thsi topic has been covered so many times in GD that I have to think the guys who still spout off ignorantly about it are just playing dumb at this point.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:42:59 AM EDT
[#19]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:



It’s more complicated than that.


Literally. It’s called Complexity Index. Or, technically the Nelson Complexity Index.
View Quote


Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:43:13 AM EDT
[#20]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Where's the *
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We emptied our Strategic Fuel Reserves and now need to refill them.

We've kept the SFR in case of war, tensions in the middle east, or an explosive scandal breaks on Biden.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:43:51 AM EDT
[#21]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:

We emptied our Strategic Fuel Reserves and now need to refill them.

We've kept the SFR in case of war, tensions in the middle east, or an explosive scandal breaks on Biden.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
Where's the *

We emptied our Strategic Fuel Reserves and now need to refill them.

We've kept the SFR in case of war, tensions in the middle east, or an explosive scandal breaks on Biden.


The SPR is useless.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:47:16 AM EDT
[#22]
This has much to do with our relative indifference to the Russian invasion of Ukraine (which has a huge energy war component, mostly Europe's problem) and Iran vs. Israel and Iranian nukes and the collapse of the US security relationship with Saudi Arabia.  We have much less reason to care vs. the 1990's-2000's.

You'll note the other period of pre-WWII American isolationism and peak world power following WWII (fought largely over oil) coincided with the US being utterly dominant in oil production.  The period of our decline roughly coincides with the US share of oil production fading.  We cared very, very much about Iraq throughout the period of declining conventional production and abruptly stopped caring as soon as fracking took off.

Attachment Attached File

Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:48:00 AM EDT
[#23]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Sigh.

It’s like I predicted this… 2? Years ago.



Also this thread is fresh.  And the comments in it already gold.


https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/148484/IMG_3534-3055384.jpg
View Quote


Refresh my memory please.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:48:47 AM EDT
[#24]
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Quoted:


The SPR is useless.
View Quote


The SPR is to oil as the ethanol subsidy is to corn.  Political optics.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:51:13 AM EDT
[#25]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


The SPR is to oil as the ethanol subsidy is to corn.  Political optics.
View Quote View All Quotes
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:


The SPR is useless.


The SPR is to oil as the ethanol subsidy is to corn.  Political optics.



That’s a very good analogy.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:57:13 AM EDT
[#26]
Because Biden administration has made it very expensive to get the oil from ground to gas.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:57:21 AM EDT
[#27]
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Quoted:
How much are we exporting? Most ? Because I bet we’re exporting most of it.
View Quote


For fucks sake!  Just Google it.  No, we are not exporting most of it.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 9:57:23 AM EDT
[#28]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Refresh my memory please.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
Sigh.

It’s like I predicted this… 2? Years ago.



Also this thread is fresh.  And the comments in it already gold.


https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/148484/IMG_3534-3055384.jpg


Refresh my memory please.



Once I get to my office I will.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 10:24:45 AM EDT
[#29]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:



Once I get to my office I will.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Sigh.

It’s like I predicted this… 2? Years ago.



Also this thread is fresh.  And the comments in it already gold.


https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/148484/IMG_3534-3055384.jpg


Refresh my memory please.



Once I get to my office I will.


Now we will get some answers.

Class will be in session so take notes and try to keep up.  ????
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 10:28:49 AM EDT
[#30]
Chocolate rations have increased from 4 grams to 3 grams.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 10:50:44 AM EDT
[#31]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


The SPR is to oil as the ethanol subsidy is to corn.  Political optics.
View Quote

If it were only used for military applications would it be worth while?
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 10:53:00 AM EDT
[#32]

Alaska has not increased oil output.


Fuck jb and haaland has made it harder to find and get oil out.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 10:56:36 AM EDT
[#33]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Now we will get some answers.

Class will be in session so take notes and try to keep up.  ????
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Sigh.

It’s like I predicted this… 2? Years ago.



Also this thread is fresh.  And the comments in it already gold.


https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/148484/IMG_3534-3055384.jpg


Refresh my memory please.



Once I get to my office I will.


Now we will get some answers.

Class will be in session so take notes and try to keep up.  ????


Now tagging.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 11:02:03 AM EDT
[#34]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:

If it were only used for military applications would it be worth while?
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:


The SPR is to oil as the ethanol subsidy is to corn.  Political optics.

If it were only used for military applications would it be worth while?



Doesn’t matter. Refinery capacity is and always will be the bottle neck.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 11:02:31 AM EDT
[#35]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Where's the *
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Where's the *


The chart seems to be counting something other than crude oil because the numbers don't add up.  The US produces 13 million barrels per day and Russia and Saudi have each cut production to 9 million barrels per day.  13 is not greater than 18 (9+9).


Quoted:
Sigh.

It’s like I predicted this… 2? Years ago.



Didn't you predict at the start of the Russia Ukraine war that Russian oil production would collapse in a year or two?
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 11:06:13 AM EDT
[#36]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:



Doesn’t matter. Refinery capacity is and always will be the bottle neck.
View Quote


On purpose.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 11:11:36 AM EDT
[#37]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


The chart seems to be counting something other than crude oil because the numbers don't add up.  The US produces 13 million barrels per day and Russia and Saudi have each cut production to 9 million barrels per day.  13 is not greater than 18 (9+9).




Didn't you predict at the start of the Russia Ukraine war that Russian oil production would collapse in a year or two?
View Quote View All Quotes
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
Where's the *


The chart seems to be counting something other than crude oil because the numbers don't add up.  The US produces 13 million barrels per day and Russia and Saudi have each cut production to 9 million barrels per day.  13 is not greater than 18 (9+9).


Quoted:
Sigh.

It’s like I predicted this… 2? Years ago.



Didn't you predict at the start of the Russia Ukraine war that Russian oil production would collapse in a year or two?



I said it would decrease by about ~1-2m bpd as Their further wells will fall off production as western drillers end their relationship and technology sharing. Which is approximately correct, depending on who you listen to.

They declined from ~10m bpd to about 8.5m bpd.

They are focused on shallow ural region drilling currently. As it’s easy and cheap for them. But unsustainable in those fields long term, as they were tapped originally back in the 1960s. And production fall off is real.

Projects like the Sakhalin islands and Siberia have fallen off.  Recent Russian LNG projects have been scrapped. NG production has fallen approximately 18% YoY.  So approximately the same decline as their oil. Give or take.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 11:12:39 AM EDT
[#38]
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Quoted:


On purpose.
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Quoted:
Quoted:



Doesn’t matter. Refinery capacity is and always will be the bottle neck.


On purpose.



No?


Who’s going to pay for and sit on a multi billion dollar tool, that takes hundreds of millions of dollars to run/staff… and not use it?


Excess capacity costs tons of money.  No one is willing to front that money right now.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 11:23:01 AM EDT
[#39]
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 11:25:04 AM EDT
[#40]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:

Alaska has not increased oil output.


Fuck jb and haaland has made it harder to find and get oil out.
View Quote


Alaska operates well & pumps?
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 11:25:38 AM EDT
[#41]
The US was energy independent under Trump.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 11:27:39 AM EDT
[#42]
Gasoline is around $1.36 a gallon in Saudi Arabia......no corn crap added.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 11:29:13 AM EDT
[#43]
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Quoted:
Gasoline is around $1.36 a gallon in Saudi Arabia......
View Quote



Gasoline is $2.37 here.



Weird price goes down when you subsidize something…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-28/saudi-arabia-s-7-000-per-person-fuel-subsidies-highest-in-g-20
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 11:29:29 AM EDT
[#44]
I still see a lot of frack sites going in and pipelines being built to move that oil around.  Definitely not like it was 5 years ago but it's still happening.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 11:29:31 AM EDT
[#45]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Gasoline is around $1.36 a gallon in Saudi Arabia......
View Quote


The Saudi government has some of the highest domestic gasoline subsidies in the world.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 11:31:00 AM EDT
[#46]
Sorry OP, that won't stop gas from going sky high because there shit going down between Israel and Iran.

Never let a crisis go to waste...
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 11:31:55 AM EDT
[#47]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
I still see a lot of frack sites going in and pipelines being built to move that oil around.  Definitely not like it was 5 years ago but it's still happening.
View Quote



https://energynow.com/2020/01/north-american-oil-company-bankruptcies-jump-in-2019/?amp
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 11:48:48 AM EDT
[#48]
Biden is probably just giving the oil we crank out to UKR...
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 11:50:42 AM EDT
[#49]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


That isn't how global markets work and it isn't how oil refining/distillation works.

All oil is traded on a global market and is sold to the highest bidder. In addition, oil refineries are finely tuned to work with a single type of oil.

The US refineries have been shifting to lighter oils like those produced domestically but it is a slow process and no one wants a refinery offline.


https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41653

ETA: An easier explanation https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/america-produces-enough-oil-to-meet-its-needs-so-why-do-we-import-crude
View Quote
I used to work in Ultramar, then it was bought out by Diamond Shamrock of San Antonio, Tex.  Anyways, I have not read those links, but anyways, many times, the oil company would trade crude and other petroleum products with other petroleum companies. The problem that transportation is really expensive, so if you have some premium gasoline on east coast and someone needs some #2 diesel on the west coast, you just trade it and save the transportation. This is just a very simplified version, as I have never seen it done, just what someone told me.
Link Posted: 4/16/2024 1:54:31 PM EDT
[#50]
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Good link. Looks like the information above is correct. And also looks like we consume roughly 90% of what we produce, leaving only 2 million or so barrels for net export.

The top 10 oil producers and share of total world oil production in 2023

Country: Million barrels per day/Share of world total
United States: 21.91/22%
Saudi Arabia: 11.13/11%
Russia: 10.75/11%
Canada: 5.76/6%
China: 5.26/5%
Iraq: 4.42/4%
Brazil 4.28/4%
United Arab Emirates: 4.16/4%
Iran: 3.99/4%
Kuwait: 2.91/3%
Total top 10: 74.59/73%
World total: 101.81

1 Oil includes crude oil, all other petroleum liquids, and biofuels.
2 Production includes domestic production of crude oil, all other petroleum liquids, and biofuels and refinery processing gain.
3 Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics, Total oil (petroleum and other liquids) production, as of April 11, 2024
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