First off, tremendous props to LoBrau, who saw Ukraine coming well in advance and started a record setting thread. May that record stand forever, because nothing would please us more than for there to no longer be anything to talk about.

What has become evident since February of 2022 is that there is a global reshuffling taking place, with three primary players behind most of the conflict in the world today. Discussion of current geopolitics cannot be constrained to one country or conflict.

What this thread is:
News and discussion related to political / military actions by Russia / Iran / China and their proxies, chief among those, North Korea.
News and discussion of the relationships between Russia / Iran / China and their proxies.
News and discussion of responses to Russia / Iran / China and their proxies.
Related Grey Zone / hybrid warfare / “competition short of war.”
Relevant or interesting technical discussion.
Relevant economic / social / historical discussion.
Reliable reporting from Russian / Iranian / Chinese sources.
Russian / Iranian / Chinese perspectives and factual evaluation thereof.
Political topics in the US and / or elsewhere which bear directly on these issues, including the politics of foreign aid.
Current focus is on the Russian war against and in Ukraine, however this could change if the Ukraine war cooled off and Taiwan heated up.  Related topics are always allowed.
Secondary but related topics like Wagner in Africa, uprising in Georgia, or a Third Chechen War.
Reasonable tangents.

What this thread is not:
US and / or foreign political issues which do not directly bear on these topics, including campaigning / advocating for one party or candidate.

General rules:
Discussion is expected to be conducted in good faith and assertions of fact should be substantiated.
In case of a question on whether a subtopic or line of discussion is relevant to this thread, the following members should be considered co-owners with decision making authority- AlmightyTallest, Capta, and SaltwaterHillbilly.

The Axis of Upheaval
How America’s Adversaries Are Uniting to Overturn the Global Order
By Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Richard Fontaine
May/June 2024
Published on April 23, 2024

In the early morning of January 2, Russian forces launched a massive missile attack on the Ukrainian cities of Kyiv and Kharkiv that killed at least five civilians, injured more than 100, and damaged infrastructure. The incident was notable not just for the harm it caused but also because it showed that Russia was not alone in its fight. The Russian attack that day was carried out with weapons fitted with technology from China, missiles from North Korea, and drones from Iran. Over the past two years, all three countries have become critical enablers of Moscow’s war machine in Ukraine.

Since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, Moscow has deployed more than 3,700 Iranian-designed drones. Russia now produces at least 330 on its own each month and is collaborating with Iran on plans to build a new drone factory inside Russia that will boost these numbers. North Korea has sent Russia ballistic missiles and more than 2.5 million rounds of ammunition, just as Ukrainian stockpiles have dwindled. China, for its part, has become Russia’s most important lifeline. Beijing has ramped up its purchase of Russian oil and gas, putting billions of dollars into Moscow’s coffers. Just as significantly, China provides vast amounts of warfighting technology, from semiconductors and electronic devices to radar- and communications-jamming equipment and jet-fighter parts. Customs records show that despite Western trade sanctions, Russia’s imports of computer chips and chip components have been steadily rising toward prewar levels. More than half of these goods come from China.

The support from China, Iran, and North Korea has strengthened Russia’s position on the battlefield, undermined Western attempts to isolate Moscow, and harmed Ukraine. This collaboration, however, is just the tip of the iceberg. Cooperation among the four countries was expanding before 2022, but the war has accelerated their deepening economic, military, political, and technological ties. The four powers increasingly identify common interests, match up their rhetoric, and coordinate their military and diplomatic activities. Their convergence is creating a new axis of upheaval—a development that is fundamentally altering the geopolitical landscape.

The group is not an exclusive bloc and certainly not an alliance. It is, instead, a collection of dissatisfied states converging on a shared purpose of overturning the principles, rules, and institutions that underlie the prevailing international system. When these four countries cooperate, their actions have far greater effect than the sum of their individual efforts. Working together, they enhance one another’s military capabilities; dilute the efficacy of U.S. foreign policy tools, including sanctions; and hinder the ability of Washington and its partners to enforce global rules. Their collective aim is to create an alternative to the current order, which they consider to be dominated by the United States.

Too many Western observers have been quick to dismiss the implications of coordination among China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. The four countries have their differences, to be sure, and a history of distrust and contemporary fissures may limit how close their relationships will grow. Yet their shared aim of weakening the United States and its leadership role provides a strong adhesive. In places across Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, the ambitions of axis members have already proved to be destabilizing. Managing the disruptive effects of their further coordination and preventing the axis from upsetting the global system must now be central objectives of U.S. foreign policy.

THE ANTI-WESTERN CLUB

Collaboration among axis members is not new. China and Russia have been strengthening their partnership since the end of the Cold War—a trend that accelerated rapidly after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. China’s share of Russian external trade doubled from ten to 20 percent between 2013 and 2021, and between 2018 and 2022 Russia supplied a combined total of 83 percent of China’s arms imports. Russian technology has helped the Chinese military enhance its air defense, antiship, and submarine capabilities, making China a more formidable force in a potential naval conflict. Beijing and Moscow have also expressed a shared vision. In early 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping signed a joint manifesto pledging a “no limits” partnership between their two countries and calling for “international relations of a new type”—in other words, a multipolar system that is no longer dominated by the United States.

Iran has strengthened its ties with other axis members as well. Iran and Russia worked together to keep Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in power after the onset of civil war in 2011. Joining Russia’s efforts, which include major energy agreements with Iran to shield Tehran from the effects of U.S. sanctions, China has purchased large quantities of Iranian oil since 2020. North Korea, for its part, has counted China as its primary ally and trade partner for decades, and North Korea and Russia have maintained warm, if not particularly substantive, ties. Iran has purchased North Korean missiles since the 1980s, and more recently, North Korea is thought to have supplied weapons to Iranian proxy groups, including Hezbollah and possibly Hamas. Pyongyang and Tehran have also bonded over a shared aversion to Washington: as a senior North Korean official, Kim Yong Nam, declared during a ten-day trip to Iran in 2017, the two countries “have a common enemy.”

But the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 hastened the convergence among these four countries in ways that transcend their historical ties. Moscow has been among Tehran’s top suppliers of weapons over the past two decades and is now its largest source of foreign investment; Russian exports to Iran rose by 27 percent in the first ten months of 2022. Over the past two years, according to the White House, Russia has been sharing more intelligence with and providing more weapons to Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies, and Moscow has defended those proxies in debates at the UN Security Council. Last year, Russia displaced Saudi Arabia as China’s largest source of crude oil and trade between the two countries topped $240 billion, a record high. Moscow has also released millions of dollars in North Korean assets that previously sat frozen in Russian banks in compliance with Security Council sanctions. China, Iran, and Russia have held joint naval exercises in the Gulf of Oman three years in a row, most recently in March 2024. Russia has also proposed trilateral naval drills with China and North Korea.

The growing cooperation among China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia is fueled by their shared opposition to the Western-dominated global order, an antagonism rooted in their belief that that system does not accord them the status or freedom of action they deserve. Each country claims a sphere of influence: China’s “core interests,” which extend to Taiwan and the South China Sea; Iran’s “axis of resistance,” the set of proxy groups that give Tehran leverage in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and elsewhere; North Korea’s claim to the entire Korean Peninsula; and Russia’s “near abroad,” which for the Kremlin includes, at a minimum, the countries that composed its historic empire. All four countries see the United States as the primary obstacle to establishing these spheres of influence, and they want Washington’s presence in their respective regions reduced.

All reject the principle of universal values and interpret the West’s championing of its brand of democracy as an attempt to undermine their legitimacy and foment domestic instability. They insist that individual states have the right to define democracy for themselves. In the end, although they may make temporary accommodations with the United States, they do not believe that the West will accept their rise (or return) to power on the world stage. They oppose external meddling in their internal affairs, the expansion of U.S. alliances, the stationing of American nuclear weapons abroad, and the use of coercive sanctions.

Any positive vision for the future, however, is more elusive. Yet history shows that a positive agenda may not be necessary for a group of discontented powers to cause disruption. The 1940 Tripartite Pact uniting Germany, Italy, and Japan—the original “Axis”—pledged to “establish and maintain a new order of things” in which each country would claim “its own proper place.” They did not succeed, but World War II certainly brought global upheaval. The axis of China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia does not need a coherent plan for an alternative international order to upset the existing system. The countries’ shared opposition to the present order’s core tenets and their determination to bring about change form a powerful basis for collaborative action.

Fissures do exist among members of the axis. China and Russia vie for influence in Central Asia, for instance, while Iran and Russia compete for oil markets in China, India, and elsewhere in Asia. The four countries have complicated histories with each other, too. The Soviet Union invaded Iran in 1941; Russia and China settled their long-standing border dispute only in 2004 and had both previously supported efforts to limit Iran’s nuclear programs and to isolate North Korea. Today, China may look askance at North Korea’s deepening relationship with Russia, worrying that an emboldened Kim Jong Un will aggravate tensions in Northeast Asia and draw in a larger U.S. military presence, which China does not want. Yet their differences are insufficient to dissolve the bonds forged by their common resistance to a Western-dominated world.

CATALYST IN THE KREMLIN

Moscow has been the main instigator of this axis. The invasion of Ukraine marked a point of no return in Putin’s long-standing crusade against the West. Putin has grown more committed to destroying not only Ukraine but also the global order. And he has doubled down on relationships with like-minded countries to accomplish his aims. Cut off from Western trade, investment, and technology since the start of the war, Moscow has had little choice but to rely on its partners to sustain its hostilities. The ammunition, drones, microchips, and other forms of aid that axis members have sent have been of great help to Russia. But the more the Kremlin relies on these countries, the more it must give away in return. Beijing, Pyongyang, and Tehran are taking advantage of their leverage over Moscow to expand their military capabilities and economic options.

Even before the Russian invasion, Moscow’s military assistance to Beijing was eroding the United States’ military advantage over China. Russia has provided ever more sophisticated weapons to China, and the two countries’ joint military exercises have grown in scope and frequency. Russian officers who have fought in Syria and in Ukraine’s Donbas region have shared valuable lessons with Chinese personnel, helping the People’s Liberation Army make up for its lack of operational experience—a notable weakness relative to more seasoned U.S. forces. China’s military modernization has reduced the urgency of deepening defense cooperation with Russia, but the two countries are likely to proceed with technology transfers and joint weapons development and production. In February, for instance, Russian officials confirmed that they were working with Chinese counterparts on military applications of artificial intelligence. Moscow retains an edge over Beijing in other key areas, including submarine technology, remote sensing satellites, and aircraft engines. If China can pressure a more dependent Russia to provide additional advanced technologies, the transfer could further undermine the United States’ advantages.

A similar dynamic is playing out in Russia’s relations with Iran and North Korea. Moscow and Tehran have forged what the Biden administration has called an “unprecedented defense partnership” that upgrades Iranian military capabilities. Russia has provided Iran with advanced aircraft, air defense, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and cyber-capabilities that would help Tehran resist a potential U.S. or Israeli military operation. And in return for North Korea’s ammunition and other military support to Russia, Pyongyang is reportedly seeking advanced space, missile, and submarine technology from Moscow. If Russia were to comply with those requests, North Korea would be able to improve the accuracy and survivability of its nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles and use Russian nuclear propulsion technology to expand the range and capability of its submarines. Already, Russia’s testing of North Korean weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine has supplied Pyongyang with information it can use to refine its missile program, and Russian assistance may have helped North Korea launch a military spy satellite in November after two previous failures last year.

Strong relations among the four axis countries have emboldened leaders in Pyongyang and Tehran. Kim, who now enjoys strong backing from both China and Russia, abandoned North Korea’s decades-old policy of peaceful unification with South Korea and stepped up its threats against Seoul, indulged in nuclear blackmail and missile tests, and expressed a lack of any interest in talks with the United States. And although there does not appear to be a direct connection between their deepening partnership and Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, growing support from Russia likely made Iran more willing to activate its regional proxies in the aftermath. The coordinated diplomacy and pressure from Russia and the West that brought Iran into the 2015 nuclear deal are now a distant memory. Today, Moscow and Beijing are helping Tehran resist Western coercion, making it easier for Iran to enrich uranium and reject Washington’s efforts to negotiate a new nuclear agreement.

AMERICA UNDERMINED

Collaboration among the axis members also reduces the potency of tools that Washington and its partners often use to confront them. In the most glaring example, since the start of the war in Ukraine, China has supplied Russia with semiconductors and other essential technologies that Russia previously imported from the West, undercutting the efficacy of Western export controls. All four countries are also working to reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar. The share of Russia’s imports invoiced in Chinese renminbi jumped from three percent in 2021 to 20 percent in 2022. And in December 2023, Iran and Russia finalized an agreement to conduct bilateral trade in their local currencies. By moving their economic transactions out of reach of U.S. enforcement measures, axis members undermine the efficacy of Western sanctions, as well as anticorruption and anti-money-laundering efforts.

Taking advantage of their shared borders and littoral zones, China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia can build trade and transportation networks safe from U.S. interdiction. Iran, for example, ships drones and other weapons to Russia across the Caspian Sea, where the United States has little power to stop transfers. If the United States were engaged in conflict with China in the Indo-Pacific, Beijing could seek support from Moscow. Russia might increase its overland exports of oil and gas to its southern neighbor, reducing China’s dependence on maritime energy imports that U.S. forces could block during a conflict. Russia’s defense industrial base, now in overdrive to supply weapons for Russian troops in Ukraine, could later pivot to sustain a Chinese war effort. Such cooperation would increase the odds of China’s prevailing over the American military and help advance Russia’s goal of diminishing the United States’ geopolitical influence.

The axis is also hindering Washington’s ability to rally international coalitions that can stand against its members’ destabilizing actions. China’s refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, for example, made it far easier for countries across Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East to do the same. And Beijing and Moscow have impeded Western efforts to isolate Iran. Last year, they elevated Iran from observer to member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a predominantly Asian regional body, and then orchestrated an invitation for Iran to join the BRICS—a group that China and Russia view as a counterweight to the West. Iran’s regional meddling and nuclear pursuits have made other countries wary of dealing with its government, but its participation in international forums enhances the regime’s legitimacy and presents it with opportunities to expand trade with fellow member states.

Parallel efforts by axis members in the information domain further weaken international support for U.S. positions. China, Iran, and North Korea either defended or avoided explicitly condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and they all parroted the Kremlin in accusing NATO of inciting the war. Their response to Hamas’s attacks on Israel last October followed a similar pattern. Iran used the state media and social media accounts to express support for Hamas, vilify Israel, and denounce the United States for enabling Israel’s military response, while the Russian and, to a lesser extent, Chinese media sharply criticized the United States’ enduring support for Israel. They used the war in Gaza to portray Washington as a destabilizing, domineering force in the world—a narrative that is particularly resonant in parts of Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. Even if axis members do not overtly coordinate their messages, they push the same themes, and the repetition makes them appear more credible and persuasive.

AN ALTERNATIVE ORDER?

Global orders magnify the strength of the powerful states that lead them. The United States, for instance, has invested in the liberal international order it helped create because this order reflects American preferences and extends U.S. influence. As long as an order remains sufficiently beneficial to most members, a core group of states will defend it. Dissenting countries, meanwhile, are bound by a collective action problem. If they were to defect en masse, they could succeed in creating an alternative order more to their liking. But without a core cluster of powerful states around which they can coalesce, the advantage remains with the existing order.

For decades, threats to the U.S.-led order were limited to a handful of rogue states with little power to upend it. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the restructuring of interstate relations it prompted have lifted the constraint on collective action. The axis of upheaval represents a new center of gravity, a group that other countries dissatisfied with the existing order can turn to. The axis is ushering in an international system characterized by two orders that are becoming increasingly organized and competitive.

Historically, competing orders have invited conflict, especially at the geographical seams between them. Wars arise from specific conditions, such as a territorial dispute, the need to protect national interests or the interests of an ally, or a threat to the survival of a regime. But the likelihood that any of those conditions will lead to war increases in the presence of dueling orders. Some political science researchers have found that periods in which a single order prevailed—the balance-of-power system maintained by the Concert of Europe for much of the nineteenth century, for example, or the U.S.-dominated post–Cold War era—were less prone to conflicts than those characterized by more than one order, such as the multipolar period between the two world wars and the bipolar system of the Cold War.

The world has gotten a preview of the instability this new era of competing orders will bring, with potential aggressors empowered by the axis’s normalization of alternative rules and less afraid of being isolated if they act out. Already, Hamas’s attack on Israel threatens to engulf the wider Middle East in war. Last October, Azerbaijan forcibly took control of Nagorno-Karabakh, a breakaway region inhabited by ethnic Armenians. Tensions flared between Serbia and Kosovo in 2023, too, and Venezuela threatened to seize territory in neighboring Guyana in December. Although internal conditions precipitated the coups in Myanmar and across Africa’s Sahel region since 2020, the rising incidence of such revolts is connected to the new international arrangement. For many years, it seemed that coups were becoming less common, in large part because plotters faced significant costs for violating norms. Now, however, the calculations have changed. Overthrowing a government may still shatter relations with the West, but the new regimes can find support in Beijing and Moscow.

Further development of the axis would bring even greater tumult. So far, most collaboration among China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia has been bilateral. Trilateral and quadrilateral action could expand their capacity for disruption. Countries such as Belarus, Cuba, Eritrea, Nicaragua, and Venezuela—all of which chafe against the U.S.-led, Western-dominated system—could also begin working more closely with the axis. If the group grows in size and tightens its coordination, the United States and its allies will have a more difficult time defending the recognized order.

TAKING ON THE REVISIONISTS

For now, U.S. national security strategy ranks China as a higher priority than Iran, North Korea, or even Russia. That assessment is strategically sound when considering the threat that individual countries pose to the United States, but it does not fully account for the cooperation among them. U.S. policy will need to address the destabilizing effects of revisionist countries’ acting in concert, and it should try to disrupt their coordinated efforts to subvert important international rules and institutions. Washington, furthermore, should undercut the axis’s appeal by sharpening the attractions of the existing order.

If the United States is to counter an increasingly coordinated axis, it cannot treat each threat as an isolated phenomenon. Washington should not ignore Russian aggression in Europe, for example, in order to focus on rising Chinese power in Asia. It is already clear that Russia’s success in Ukraine benefits a revisionist China by showing that it is possible, if costly, to thwart a united Western effort. Even as Washington rightly sees China as its top priority, addressing the challenge from Beijing will require competing with other members of the axis in other parts of the world. To be effective, the United States will need to devote additional resources to national security, engage in more vigorous diplomacy, develop new and stronger partnerships, and take a more activist role in the world than it has of late.

Driving wedges between members of the axis, on the other hand, will not work. Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, some strategists suggested that the United States align itself with Russia to balance China. After the war began, a few held out hope that the United States could join China in an anti-Russian coalition. But unlike President Richard Nixon’s opening to China in the 1970s, which took advantage of a Sino-Soviet split to draw Beijing further away from Moscow, there is no equivalent ideological or geopolitical rivalry for Washington to exploit today. The price of trying would likely involve U.S. recognition of a Russian or Chinese sphere of influence in Europe and Asia—regions central to U.S. interests and ones that Washington should not allow a hostile foreign power to dominate. Breaking Iran or North Korea off from the rest of the axis would be even more difficult, given their governments’ revisionist, even revolutionary aims. Ultimately, the axis is a problem the United States must manage, not one it can solve with grand strategic gestures.

Neither the West nor the axis will become wholly distinct political, military, and economic blocs. Each coalition will compete for influence all over the world, trying to draw vital countries closer to its side. Six “global swing states” will be particularly important: Brazil, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey are all middle powers with enough collective geopolitical weight for their policy preferences to sway the future direction of the international order. These six countries—and others, too—can be expected to pursue economic, diplomatic, military, and technological ties with members of both orders. U.S. policymakers should make it a priority to deny advantages to the axis in these countries, encouraging their governments to choose policies that favor the prevailing order. In practice, that means using trade incentives, military engagement, foreign aid, and diplomacy to prevent swing states from hosting axis members’ military bases, giving axis members access to their technology infrastructure or military equipment, or helping them circumvent Western sanctions.

Although competition with the axis may be inevitable, the United States must try to avoid direct conflict with any of its members. To that end, Washington should reaffirm its security commitments to bolster deterrence in the western Pacific, in the Middle East, on the Korean Peninsula, and on NATO’s eastern flank. The United States and its allies should also prepare for opportunistic aggression. If a Chinese invasion of Taiwan prompts U.S. military intervention, for instance, Russia may be tempted to move against another European country, and Iran or North Korea could escalate threats in their regions. Even if the axis members do not coordinate their aggression directly, concurrent conflicts could overwhelm the West. Washington will therefore need to press allies to invest in capabilities that the United States could not provide if it were already engaged in another military theater.

Confronting the axis will be expensive. A new strategy will require the United States to bolster its spending on defense, foreign aid, diplomacy, and strategic communications. Washington must direct aid to the frontlines of conflict between the axis and the West—including assistance to Israel, Taiwan, and Ukraine, all of which face encroachment by axis members. Revisionists are emboldened by the sense that political divisions at home or exhaustion with international engagement will keep the United States on the sidelines of this competition; a comprehensive, well-resourced U.S. strategy with bipartisan support would help counter that impression. The alternative—a reduction in the U.S. global presence—would leave the fate of crucial regions in the hands not of friendly local powers but of axis members seeking to impose their revisionist and illiberal preferences.

THE FOUR-POWER THREAT

There is a tendency to downplay the significance of growing cooperation among China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. By turning to Beijing, this argument goes, Moscow merely signals its acceptance of the role of junior partner. Obtaining drones from Iran and munitions from North Korea demonstrates the desperation of a Russian war machine that incorrectly assumed that conquering Ukraine would be easy. China’s embrace of Russia shows only that Beijing could not achieve the positive relationship it originally sought with Europe and other Western powers. North Korea remains the world’s most isolated country, and Iran’s disruptive activities have backfired, strengthening regional cooperation among Israel, the United States, and Gulf countries.

Such analysis ignores the severity of the threat. Four powers, growing in strength and coordination, are united in their opposition to the prevailing world order and its U.S. leadership. Their combined economic and military capacity, together with their determination to change the way the world has worked since the end of the Cold War, make for a dangerous mix. This is a group bent on upheaval, and the United States and its partners must treat the axis as the generational challenge it is. They must reinforce the foundations of the international order and push back against those who act most vigorously to undermine it. It is likely impossible to arrest the emergence of this new axis, but keeping it from upending the current system is an achievable goal.

The West has everything it needs to triumph in this contest. Its combined economy is far larger, its militaries are significantly more powerful, its geography is more advantageous, its values are more attractive, and its democratic system is more stable. The United States and its partners should be confident in their own strengths, even as they appreciate the scale of effort necessary to compete with this budding anti-Western coalition. The new axis has already changed the picture of geopolitics—but Washington and its partners can still prevent the world of upheaval the axis hopes to usher in.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/axis-upheaval-russia-iran-north-korea-taylor-fontaine

After the Hong Kong take over the Hong Kong based news companies switched to Xinhua, CTGN, Global Times style reporting not just the Asia Times but other Hong Kong based news like SCMP {South China Morning Post}

Iran's recent attack could be seen as both a military failure and politically effective. Arguably, the features of current-generation drones all but guaranteed that outcome. https://t.co/JDIWoa6zd8

Modern War Institute  (@WarInstitute) May 5, 2024

Entire analysis from MWI in spoiler
Click To View Spoiler

Link to articles below

Hamas official says Israel focused exclusively on hostages and ignored its demands

Report: CIA chief heads to 'emergency' meeting in Doha as cease-fire talks 'near to collapse'

Before this war ends, we'll see man-made horrors beyond our comprehension.



Not the same tank, but a turtle.

Turtle tank driver position view.

Shit, thanks.

lol, good heavens.  It is going to get to the point where a regular tank with a fully rotating turret is going to own those things because they can't see anything.

China state news

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202405/1311678.shtml

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Why was South Korea not included in that meeting?

Funny how China says nations that don't become Chinese vassals will be US vassals, as if they don't have a choice.

Asiatimes
Eurasianews
Hindustantimes

All major disinfo sources.

As long as it's labeled as such and given under the Spoiler button, I don't see anything wrong with posting articles from our enemies just so we can keep track of what they're trying to do to shape narratives in the information space.

Again, folks have to remember that these Axis nations spend an enormous of amount of resources trying to control the information domain/narrative especially internally but I see China now trying even harder externally. IMHO, we are lagging behind the Axis when it comes to reaching average, everyday people..

2 Pacific Ocean oriented groupings QUAD and SQUAD {which is newer from summer 2023 more oriented to SCS activities}
https://thediplomat.com/2024/05/south-korea-considers-joining-aukus-pillar-2/

News from India has been taking Russian claims at face value and Hong Kong based news is now subject to Beijing authorities

If I think people might be unaware I add “Iran state news” “China state news” etc to links but I agree keeping tabs on what kind of info is being put out is worthwhile. Info can still be gleaned over time via omission or even lies can be tell’s like playing poker

Yeah I think you got it right, definitely important to keep tabs on these fools!

Another meat assault led by Chinese made ATVs except it looks like they're own tank is firing on them I'm actually shocked the ATVs made it to their objective

Video from a Russian Telegram channel reportedly showing a Russian assault on a defensive position with two Chinese Desertcross 1000-3 ATVs and a tank. Doesn’t look like much deconfliction was conducted with the tank, which continues to fire on the position. They also deployed… pic.twitter.com/z1mO4EHnY1

Rob Lee  (@RALee85) May 5, 2024

Last Sunday, Ukraine received its first shipment of badly needed anti-armor rockets, missiles, and 155mm artillery shells from the new $61 billion US aid package, per the NYT.

A second shipment of more weapons arrived the next day. pic.twitter.com/A1AfsT15sR

OSINTtechnical  (@Osinttechnical) May 5, 2024

Additionally, Spanish-supplied PATRIOT interceptors arrived in Poland on Tuesday, and are headed into Ukraine. https://t.co/uaenLTe6Oy

OSINTtechnical  (@Osinttechnical) May 5, 2024

Footage posted yesterday showing a Ukrainian M1A1 Abrams tank damaged/destroyed near Novopokrovs’ke. It was targeted by FPVs, a Lancet, Krasnopol artillery rounds, and a possible ATGM. The footage shows the crew abandoning the tank. A Bradley was also destroyed nearby.… pic.twitter.com/HhuYtPoYfl

Rob Lee  (@RALee85) May 5, 2024

New Perun video.  “Competition Short of War” for territorial claims the Arctic.  Also has relevance for extended claims on territorial waters elsewhere like the South China Sea

I figured Iran knew that their drones would not get through and this was just a big show. It's a lot like a protester with a stick hitting a cop who is wearing armor and has a shield. It's not going to do anything but it makes the guy with the stick look and feel like he was willing to do something. It's a show.

He also blamed India, and India doesn't have economic problems right now.

What has only been hinted at is that this was a “patterning” attack extremely similar to those Russia is executing against Ukraine, and possibly designed by or in cooperation with Russia.  The goal wasn’t for this attack to do damage per se, but to figure out how the Israelis respond, where their AD assets are and what their capabilities are, draw down Israeli resources, figure out what Iran could expect from its own missiles under operational conditions, and possibly to misdirect Israel as to Iranian capabilities and intentions.
I believe there will be a “real” attack at an appropriate time based on lessons learned, probably towards the end of this year.

It seems like the barn has been quite effective at stopping Ukrainian drones from hitting soft spots on the tank.

I hope you're wrong. But we all know that Israel is surrounded by people who are going to annihilate them at the first opportunity.

BMD-2 vs. trees

A couple of pieces focusing on Georgia and Chechnya, plus some thought-provoking and disturbing big-picture discussion of Russian socio-political topics.  Worth a binge listen if you have some time to spare.

WOW! Legit?

Source known for repeating Russian disinfo.

This is also one of the few known videos of the war so far that shows a BMP hitting anything.

Wow wow \uD83D\uDE33
Control the mad max vibes Russia! pic.twitter.com/UD6lB6YUC9

— Kvist.P \uD83C\uDDE9\uD83C\uDDF0\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@kvistp) May 5, 2024

Videos from Ukraine’s 58th Motorized Brigade showing Russian losses, a tank duel, an FPV strike on a BTR, and a strike on a Russian tank. https://t.co/TYwEi9yxPYhttps://t.co/15xrCs94FWhttps://t.co/Es2YMQpD9vhttps://t.co/xIM5Fsx0qy pic.twitter.com/AQGigUp9o6

Rob Lee  (@RALee85) May 5, 2024

Sumy was fired with shaheds. The city is practically without light

https://t.me/zahid_golovne_ua/31384



Regional Administration
The enemy carried out an airstrike on the energy facilities of Sumy Oblast.

☝️All necessary services are working on the ground. Restoration work is underway. The consequences of the attack are being clarified.

👉Stay tuned for further updates on the situation.

‼️Keep calm, do not ignore the air alarm signals. Stay in shelters.

https://t.me/Sumy_news_ODA/26070



Sumy Mayor
❗️❗️ In connection with the mass attack of Shaheds on the city, critical infrastructure facilities are switched to backup power.

✅️ Water supply and hospitals will be provided with backup power in full.

❗️Also, points of invincibility are deployed in the city.

🇺🇦 Let's hold on! Everything will be Ukraine!

https://t.me/drozdenko_sumy/749

Y'all want to laugh? Get on twitter and search for "Russia China" and "Russia Iran." It's like ALL the disinformation bots on twatter have those search terms nailed right the fuck down.

"Shahid missiles? No Братан is produkt of fine Russian engineering is called "фиговину." "

Interesting. If that assault was done against a defended position then the UA is in terrible shape. Anyone with a PKM should have stopped that attack from 600 yards out. Surviving Russians should kill that tank commander too.

With the West (especially team Biden-Scholz) prohibiting Ukrainians from using Western weapons inside Russia and continually delaying military aid to Ukraine, Russian forces are using the opportunity to continue massing north of the Russia-Ukraine border, across from Kharkiv. 1/6

Ukraine Reporter  (@StateOfUkraine) May 5, 2024

Currently, at least 50k-60k Russian troops and around 1500 armored vehicles (a mix of tanks and and other AFVs) have been deployed to the Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod regions of Russia, but those forces are growing and most of them are moving to Belgorod, closer to Kharkiv. 2/6

Ukraine Reporter  (@StateOfUkraine) May 5, 2024

Russian tube and rocket artillery and short-range ballistic missiles (eg. Iskander) had already been deployed in Belgorod in significant numbers and have been bombarding Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city, for two years. 3/6

Ukraine Reporter  (@StateOfUkraine) May 5, 2024

As impressive as the Russian force concentration may appear, it is, of course, currently insufficient for a major military operation to seize Kharkiv, but sufficient for significant cross-border raids that will sap limited Ukrainian resources. 4/6

Ukraine Reporter  (@StateOfUkraine) May 5, 2024

After liberating the Kharkiv region in 2022 and counting on increased military aid to keep the momentum going, Ukrainians couldn't have imagined that 2 years on, most of the weapons they needed would never arrive and they'd be facing the uncertainty of 2022 all over again. 5/6

Ukraine Reporter  (@StateOfUkraine) May 5, 2024

After liberating the Kharkiv region in 2022 and counting on increased military aid to keep the momentum going, Ukrainians couldn't have imagined that 2 years on, most of the weapons they needed would never arrive and they'd be facing the uncertainty of 2022 all over again. 5/6

Ukraine Reporter  (@StateOfUkraine) May 5, 2024

Marshal Kim Jong-un is trending in perpetuity. pic.twitter.com/NjDdEygT1R

— DPRK News Service (@DPRK_News) May 5, 2024

I believe this may be accurate. Probably multiple goals: Show of force to avoid looking weak while de-escalating the conflict until the time is right, and also as stated above gather needed intel. I bet Iran was praying that no major damage is caused thus forcing Israel to respond.

I hate the Taiwan asymmetry discourse so much. It’s incredibly reductive and ignores the deep nuance in Taiwanese procurement requirements.

Also, since when are shore-based anti-ship missiles asymmetric??? Maybe we should offer them something more modern than Harpoon? https://t.co/rXcvnB0bXW

— John Ridge \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDF8 \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@John_A_Ridge) May 5, 2024

This morning.

#namp write

🔥There is a big fire in the village of Zhemchuzhina

Details are being clarified

https://t.me/chp_crimea/41466



⚡️ Fire in the village. The pearl is being liquidated, there is no threat to life

“There was a fire at JSC Pobeda. The fire will be extinguished in the near future,” says Anton Kravets, head of the Nizhnegorsky district administration.

The preliminary fire area is 800 square meters. m. There were no reports of casualties.

UPD: The Ministry of Emergency Situations reports that the vegetable storehouse is on fire

https://t.me/chp_crimea/41468



Firefighters extinguished an open fire at a vegetable storage facility in the village of Zhemchuzhina, Nizhnegorsky district, the Ministry of Emergency Situations reported.

Firefighting of wooden pallets continues.

https://t.me/truekpcrimea/20918

AFU 5th brigade, additional media
Turtle tank explodes near Ivanivskehttps://t.co/yGaHbWqSPs https://t.co/IHFdD8RYzV pic.twitter.com/zPQXI7UNLn

— imi (m) (@moklasen) May 5, 2024

⚠️Central Crimea

Of the ones we recorded earlier, approximately one UAV remained alive. Flies in the direction of Gvardeyskoye from the north

https://t.me/bad_news_crimea/2383



⚠️Preliminarily for the moment:

Genicheskiy district is already clean
Dzhankoy district is already clean
Berdyansk district is already clean
Krasnogvardeisky district 1 UAV
Pervomaisky district 1 UAV

https://t.me/bad_news_crimea/2384



🚨Attention Crimea

Enemy preparation for missile strike

https://t.me/bad_news_crimea/2385



✅UAVs over Crimea are all shot down

https://t.me/bad_news_crimea/2386

Review of April 2024 – Northern arena

During the month, 236 attacks were carried out against Israel in the northern arena, an amount that indicates the maintained average intensity of Hezbollah's attacks since the beginning of the war.

The upward trend in Hezbollah's UAV array… pic.twitter.com/lMA1xkqksr

— Israel-Alma (@Israel_Alma_org) May 1, 2024

Attached File

ISW assessment for May 5th.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-5-2024

"Currently, over 90% of the injuries are from FPV or drone drops" https://t.co/Red5HRm1ia pic.twitter.com/tUdZVryrS3

Rob Lee  (@RALee85) May 6, 2024

Much more Presidential! The adults are back in charge!

An grenade launcher attachment to fire shotgun shells at FPVs is tested by the Russians.
It looks a lot more effective than the net pistol. https://t.co/Uh0Br9ymyd pic.twitter.com/VFtwBLtEAn

— Roy\uD83C\uDDE8\uD83C\uDDE6 (@GrandpaRoy2) May 5, 2024

A Chinese employer working in Africa shows who is boss on the continent.

Many African countries still don’t know what they have gotten themselves into after signing all three commercial agreements with China.

\uD83C\uDDE8\uD83C\uDDF3 pic.twitter.com/7Bt9N3r7e2

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) May 5, 2024

Revealing CCP abuses abroad to people on social media should be #1 priority everyday for USG

The large Ukrainian Baba Yaga drone in action.
Here he is equipped with what appears to be the equivalent of a hunting rifle, given the cartridge ejected at the end.
Very effective for anti-drone fighting.

Le gros drone ukrainien Baba Yaga en action.
Ici il est équipé de ce qui semble être l’équivalent d’un fusil de chasse, vu la cartouche éjectée à la fin.
Très efficace pour la lutte anti drone. pic.twitter.com/6msbHwPnii

gewurztraminer  (@benabarr) May 5, 2024

⚔️ Katsaps carried out assault operations east of Stelmakhivka

☠️ As a result of these actions, the landing moved into the gray zone. It's a shame that they don't show how many lives were lost for her in three days of fighting. The enemy is trying to gain a foothold, and the Defense Forces are conducting disposal of those who try to enter. The situation is still deadlocked, the enemy's advantage in the form of meat is taking its toll.

📍

?? ?????? ??????? ???????? ??? ???????? ????????????

??? ?????????? ????? ??? ??????? ???????? ? ???? ????. ?????, ?? ???? ?? ???????????? ??????? ????? ???? ??????? ?? ??? ?? ??? ??? ????. ????? ??????????? ???????????, ? ???? ??????? ????????? ?????????? ???, ??? ???????????… pic.twitter.com/ocv0pAKFok

— DeepState UA (@Deepstate_UA) May 5, 2024

Ukrainian War | 04/05/24

Overview of the Avdiivka axis | Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar

Guerre d'Ukraine | 04/05/24

Vue d'ensemble sur l'axe Avdiivka | Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar#UkraineRussianWar #GuerreEnUkraine pic.twitter.com/7CY5HivJPx

Poulet volant  (@Pouletvolant3) May 5, 2024

Bunch of good stuff from Rob Lee.

Videos of a camouflaged Russian mortar position.https://t.co/NCZHrQuH9Y pic.twitter.com/z2FBNatbIM

Rob Lee  (@RALee85) May 6, 2024

"Currently, over 90% of the injuries are from FPV or drone drops" https://t.co/Red5HRm1ia pic.twitter.com/tUdZVryrS3

Rob Lee  (@RALee85) May 6, 2024

Video showing 3 FPV strikes on a Russian MT-LB with an improvised troop-carrying section. https://t.co/v8qBKEuuWs pic.twitter.com/MseZWYiQfz

Rob Lee  (@RALee85) May 5, 2024

Photos of a Russian serviceman from October wearing a Helikon-Tex Swagman Roll Poncho, which also reduces thermal signature.https://t.co/eGlLqW7cWuhttps://t.co/OjclwjZEWt pic.twitter.com/VbC1m34zzy

Rob Lee  (@RALee85) May 5, 2024

3 orcs  enter , no orcs leave!!!!! who controls Bartertown!!!!