User Panel
User Panel
User Panel
|
Posted: 10/27/2021 8:27:29 PM EDT
[Last Edit: The_Beer_Slayer]
This is now the active "shit News links, thanks to BerettaGuy: Originally Posted By BerettaGuy: LINKS TO UKRAINIAN NEWS SOURCES IN ENGLISH Kyiv Post Ukrainian News UKRInform EUROMAIDEN PRESS New Voice of Ukraine Kyiv Independent Ukraine World InterFax Ukraine UATV Ukrainian Journal Official Website of the President of Ukraine Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Save these links. I can't post all the headlines like I've done in the past - too much news and too often. Please @ me with additional stuff to be added here. I don't currently have time to properly curate this thread otherwise. New news link c/o berettaguy: Ukrainian Pravda https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ Stop fake, anti - disinformation site: https://www.stopfake.org/en/main/ |
|
|
|
USA
|
Posted: 3/26/2024 5:12:02 PM EDT
[#1]
 Cold War Soviet Army 2K12 Kub Surface-to-Air Missile Seeker #military #engineering #war #technology |
|
|
WY, USA
|
Posted: 3/26/2024 5:14:11 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: The butterfly tried to warn them twice. 
I legit laughed when I saw that video. We are fortunate they are so fucking stupid. |
|
|
|
Posted: 3/26/2024 5:32:16 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#3]
Sounds like they are wasting alot of missiles to hit these drones.
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/26/2024 6:02:54 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Sounds like they are wasting alot of missiles to hit these drones.
Russia burning precious 
|
|
|
|
USA
|
Posted: 3/26/2024 6:47:24 PM EDT
[#5]
 
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/26/2024 7:15:41 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 3Florks: Lol, sweet baby Jesus I'd pay good money to watch that  Yes 
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/26/2024 7:35:36 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: There's so much disbelief in Russia about Putin's and FSB's versions about Ukrainians, Tajiks and ISIS that instead a conspiracy theory is spreading about mysterious "guys in blue sweaters." They allegedly organized it all and are from FSB, according to the theory. They were seen on videos from the concert hall, and then one of them was allegedly seen during the detaining in the forest. There is no confirmation of that as of now except for the blue sweaters, jeans and black watch straps. This is a set worn by every other Russian man. But the experience of life in Russia itself confirms that "guys in blue sweaters" do exist.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJn7EmKWAAETXX6?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJn7EpaX0AARBu_?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJm4xCYXQAAKtkM?format=jpg&name=medium https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJnaN0CXUAAuiAz?format=jpg&name=medium In Russia anything is possible I guess. But most likely there was a sale of blue sweaters in Costco or whatever they have in Russia. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/26/2024 7:44:30 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote Historylol
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/26/2024 7:51:10 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#9]
Rather cryptic.
Serbia in the coming days. 
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/26/2024 7:51:27 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: I’ll be the devil’s advocate on this as usual. Russia doesn’t need to be able to objectively succeed at conquering the Baltics with conventional forces to try, particularly if nukes are brought into the equation. There were a couple of videos put out by Ukraine the Latest recently where a couple of Russia experts affirmed that Russia had “basically zero chance of succeeding conventionally in the Baltics now, especially with NATO’s increased posture in the Baltics and Russia’s heavy losses.” However, they caveated that with a couple of factors, (paraphrasing) “western leadership does not understand and is having to re-learn that Russia only respects force,” and that “a newer, hungry cadre of Russian Generals is taking over their Army who have no experience with the west and don’t understand it.” They also said that “this mutual misunderstanding, combined with the idea that they believed Russian behavior was becoming increasingly irrational, left the way open for accidents.” If you look at the missile track over Poland (assuming it’s accurate) one missile took a detour over Poland for no other reason than to fly over Poland. Clearly this is a provocation and a test, and I think Russian decision makers can be forgiven for thinking NATO has failed this test, as it has failed the test throughout the war with probably dozens of other similar incidents The Russians are also probably looking at our response to the Houthis, a problem which is entirely possible they instigated to watch our response. Whether NATO actions result from an intent to sucker Russia in further, or are well-intentioned but overly bureaucratic inertia, or are feckless cowardice, they will be taken by Russian decision-makers in the manner that confirms what they want to see. It doesn’t matter if this would actually translate to unwillingness to defend NATO territory or honor article 5, it only matters that the Russians could convince themselves it would. Russia is run by sick, evil, increasingly (IMO) desperate men. They have fairly successfully put on a face of normalcy, which IMO hides a dire situation inside. Russia has always been extraordinarily insular and opaque to the West. We made a better effort to understand and counter them during the Cold War, but that knowledge has perished, and in the last 30 years we’ve returned to the idea that “they’re a European country and they must think just like us.” They are not. Perun’s video on Russian military export sales really identified how bad Russia’s DIB situation was already and was going to be in the future. Their orders have dropped to near zero, their next-gen kit are already failures which they can’t produce, and they have no money or tech exchange for development. At they same time, the west was already qualitatively light-years ahead of them, and Ukraine has (belatedly) spurred remilitarization and procurement in NATO that they can’t possibly match. Yes, they are pumping out refurbed T72s and 152mm ammo, but they are catastrophically fucked when it comes to matching up going forward. The key point that we have to consider is what the Russian leadership perceives about the balance of conventional power in the future. Our Western assumption is that, obviously, they’ll understand the situation and decide that their only choice is to reach an accommodation. This is dead wrong. I also think it’s wrong to assume that the only priority of Russian leadership is retaining their power and perks. They may be totally corrupt by our standards, but this doesn’t exclude ideology as a motivation, as we often assume it does. Putin is near the end of his life. At this point I’m comfortable with saying his motivation is near 100% ideological. The people who would likely replace him, hardcore FSB men, may also be rich as fuck, but they’ve also spent their lives plotting to advance the Russian Empire and destroy the west. It’s a huge mistake to not credit Russian leadership with the ideology they are clearly taking action to implement. Hitler and the Nazi party were corrupt as hell too. Did that stop them or mean they’d act “reasonably” to preserve their power and perks? I’ve repeatedly compared the war by Russia to Japan in WW2. It doesn’t have to be possible to win in order to try. One of Japan’s rationales for war in 1941 was that, given the collapse of naval building treaties and what they knew perfectly well about overwhelming US productive superiority, they had no choice but to act now or never. I believe the Russians will convince themselves the conventional balance of power will only get worse for them, and they can’t wait any longer and will have to go with whatever they can scrape together as soon as they can, probably behind nuke threats or nuke use. It doesn’t have to be sane, it only has to look sane to evil, desperate men. My opinion is and has been that a combination of incompetence, corruption, high-level losses, and most importantly, high stress on their system in multiple ways has probably rendered Russian leadership incapable of making sound strategic decisions. NATO needs to consider anything and everything as possible. With nukes on the table somewhere short of a full exchange, what can Russia do conventionally right now? With nukes on the table, what can Russia do after a short pause/freeze in the conflict in Ukraine to withdraw all the forces they can and reposition them, leaving the Ukrainian front guarded by a skeleton crew of infantry only? Holly wall of text Cap-man. But I read all of it and I think it's a good assessment. A page or so back there was a post about the rare VIP-tank intended to ferry VIP's around in the post-apocalyptic nuke wasteland. That told me that these fuckers are expecting to survive and stay in power and carry on with their bullshit after the world burns down around them. As stated above, we have to "think in Russian" for any hope of understanding their craziness. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/26/2024 8:24:36 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Holly wall of text Cap-man. But I read all of it and I think it's a good assessment. A page or so back there was a post about the rare VIP-tank intended to ferry VIP's around in the post-apocalyptic nuke wasteland. That told me that these fuckers are expecting to survive and stay in power and carry on with their bullshit after the world burns down around them. As stated above, we have to "think in Russian" for any hope of understanding their craziness. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By Capta: I’ll be the devil’s advocate on this as usual. Russia doesn’t need to be able to objectively succeed at conquering the Baltics with conventional forces to try, particularly if nukes are brought into the equation. There were a couple of videos put out by Ukraine the Latest recently where a couple of Russia experts affirmed that Russia had “basically zero chance of succeeding conventionally in the Baltics now, especially with NATO’s increased posture in the Baltics and Russia’s heavy losses.” However, they caveated that with a couple of factors, (paraphrasing) “western leadership does not understand and is having to re-learn that Russia only respects force,” and that “a newer, hungry cadre of Russian Generals is taking over their Army who have no experience with the west and don’t understand it.” They also said that “this mutual misunderstanding, combined with the idea that they believed Russian behavior was becoming increasingly irrational, left the way open for accidents.” If you look at the missile track over Poland (assuming it’s accurate) one missile took a detour over Poland for no other reason than to fly over Poland. Clearly this is a provocation and a test, and I think Russian decision makers can be forgiven for thinking NATO has failed this test, as it has failed the test throughout the war with probably dozens of other similar incidents The Russians are also probably looking at our response to the Houthis, a problem which is entirely possible they instigated to watch our response. Whether NATO actions result from an intent to sucker Russia in further, or are well-intentioned but overly bureaucratic inertia, or are feckless cowardice, they will be taken by Russian decision-makers in the manner that confirms what they want to see. It doesn’t matter if this would actually translate to unwillingness to defend NATO territory or honor article 5, it only matters that the Russians could convince themselves it would. Russia is run by sick, evil, increasingly (IMO) desperate men. They have fairly successfully put on a face of normalcy, which IMO hides a dire situation inside. Russia has always been extraordinarily insular and opaque to the West. We made a better effort to understand and counter them during the Cold War, but that knowledge has perished, and in the last 30 years we’ve returned to the idea that “they’re a European country and they must think just like us.” They are not. Perun’s video on Russian military export sales really identified how bad Russia’s DIB situation was already and was going to be in the future. Their orders have dropped to near zero, their next-gen kit are already failures which they can’t produce, and they have no money or tech exchange for development. At they same time, the west was already qualitatively light-years ahead of them, and Ukraine has (belatedly) spurred remilitarization and procurement in NATO that they can’t possibly match. Yes, they are pumping out refurbed T72s and 152mm ammo, but they are catastrophically fucked when it comes to matching up going forward. The key point that we have to consider is what the Russian leadership perceives about the balance of conventional power in the future. Our Western assumption is that, obviously, they’ll understand the situation and decide that their only choice is to reach an accommodation. This is dead wrong. I also think it’s wrong to assume that the only priority of Russian leadership is retaining their power and perks. They may be totally corrupt by our standards, but this doesn’t exclude ideology as a motivation, as we often assume it does. Putin is near the end of his life. At this point I’m comfortable with saying his motivation is near 100% ideological. The people who would likely replace him, hardcore FSB men, may also be rich as fuck, but they’ve also spent their lives plotting to advance the Russian Empire and destroy the west. It’s a huge mistake to not credit Russian leadership with the ideology they are clearly taking action to implement. Hitler and the Nazi party were corrupt as hell too. Did that stop them or mean they’d act “reasonably” to preserve their power and perks? I’ve repeatedly compared the war by Russia to Japan in WW2. It doesn’t have to be possible to win in order to try. One of Japan’s rationales for war in 1941 was that, given the collapse of naval building treaties and what they knew perfectly well about overwhelming US productive superiority, they had no choice but to act now or never. I believe the Russians will convince themselves the conventional balance of power will only get worse for them, and they can’t wait any longer and will have to go with whatever they can scrape together as soon as they can, probably behind nuke threats or nuke use. It doesn’t have to be sane, it only has to look sane to evil, desperate men. My opinion is and has been that a combination of incompetence, corruption, high-level losses, and most importantly, high stress on their system in multiple ways has probably rendered Russian leadership incapable of making sound strategic decisions. NATO needs to consider anything and everything as possible. With nukes on the table somewhere short of a full exchange, what can Russia do conventionally right now? With nukes on the table, what can Russia do after a short pause/freeze in the conflict in Ukraine to withdraw all the forces they can and reposition them, leaving the Ukrainian front guarded by a skeleton crew of infantry only? Holly wall of text Cap-man. But I read all of it and I think it's a good assessment. A page or so back there was a post about the rare VIP-tank intended to ferry VIP's around in the post-apocalyptic nuke wasteland. That told me that these fuckers are expecting to survive and stay in power and carry on with their bullshit after the world burns down around them. As stated above, we have to "think in Russian" for any hope of understanding their craziness. I don’t think that specific vehicle has any significance, but the Soviets then, and most likely the Russians now, didn’t consider nuclear war as intrinsically unthinkable. It was just part of their calculus, which is why I reject a lot of the western “thinking” that says obviously Russia would never do something so stupid as would lead to their own destruction. Another thing which I think we generally fail to appreciate is that Russia is in a FAR, FAR weaker position than the USSR was in. Half the population, their industrial base largely gone, their best and brightest left never to return, and bogged down in year three of a three day war with no end in sight. They are in deep fucking shit and I think this will have a significant impact on their thinking and rationality. There has been no sign at all of backing down, only doubling down. That should be concerning. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/26/2024 8:44:37 PM EDT
[#12]
The President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko stated today during a Press Conference that the 4 ISIS Terrorists last Friday Night after committing their Attack in Moscow were Initially Traveling through the Bryansk Region towards the Border with Belarus, but due to Belarusian Security Forces and Military Units being placed on High Alert they were forced to Divert towards the Russia-Ukraine Border; this Statement appears to Contradict what Russian President Putin has been saying, which is that the Terrorist’s Plan from the beginning was to Escape to Ukraine.
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/26/2024 8:51:25 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime:
The President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko stated today during a Press Conference that the 4 ISIS Terrorists last Friday Night after committing their Attack in Moscow were Initially Traveling through the Bryansk Region towards the Border with Belarus, but due to Belarusian Security Forces and Military Units being placed on High Alert they were forced to Divert towards the Russia-Ukraine Border; this Statement appears to Contradict what Russian President Putin has been saying, which is that the Terrorist’s Plan from the beginning was to Escape to Ukraine.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJneOaoXYAAsEvm?format=jpg&name=large
Another variation of that joke: The Secretary General of the UN decides to give a test to the CIA, FBI, and KGB to determine how good they are at finding targets. So, he releases a rabbit into a forest and tells each of them they have to catch it. The CIA goes in, places animal informants throughout the forest, question all plant and mineral witnesses, and after three months of extensive investigations, they conclude that rabbits don't exist. The FBI goes in, and after two weeks with no leads, they burn down the forest, killing everything in it, including the rabbit, and they make no apologies. The KGB goes in, and they come out two hours later with a badly beaten bear, who is screaming: "OKAY! OKAY! I'M A RABBIT! I'M A RABBIT!" |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/26/2024 9:18:56 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: I’ll be the devil’s advocate on this as usual. Russia doesn’t need to be able to objectively succeed at conquering the Baltics with conventional forces to try, particularly if nukes are brought into the equation. There were a couple of videos put out by Ukraine the Latest recently where a couple of Russia experts affirmed that Russia had “basically zero chance of succeeding conventionally in the Baltics now, especially with NATO’s increased posture in the Baltics and Russia’s heavy losses.” However, they caveated that with a couple of factors, (paraphrasing) “western leadership does not understand and is having to re-learn that Russia only respects force,” and that “a newer, hungry cadre of Russian Generals is taking over their Army who have no experience with the west and don’t understand it.” They also said that “this mutual misunderstanding, combined with the idea that they believed Russian behavior was becoming increasingly irrational, left the way open for accidents.” If you look at the missile track over Poland (assuming it’s accurate) one missile took a detour over Poland for no other reason than to fly over Poland. Clearly this is a provocation and a test, and I think Russian decision makers can be forgiven for thinking NATO has failed this test, as it has failed the test throughout the war with probably dozens of other similar incidents The Russians are also probably looking at our response to the Houthis, a problem which is entirely possible they instigated to watch our response. Whether NATO actions result from an intent to sucker Russia in further, or are well-intentioned but overly bureaucratic inertia, or are feckless cowardice, they will be taken by Russian decision-makers in the manner that confirms what they want to see. It doesn’t matter if this would actually translate to unwillingness to defend NATO territory or honor article 5, it only matters that the Russians could convince themselves it would. Russia is run by sick, evil, increasingly (IMO) desperate men. They have fairly successfully put on a face of normalcy, which IMO hides a dire situation inside. Russia has always been extraordinarily insular and opaque to the West. We made a better effort to understand and counter them during the Cold War, but that knowledge has perished, and in the last 30 years we’ve returned to the idea that “they’re a European country and they must think just like us.” They are not. Perun’s video on Russian military export sales really identified how bad Russia’s DIB situation was already and was going to be in the future. Their orders have dropped to near zero, their next-gen kit are already failures which they can’t produce, and they have no money or tech exchange for development. At they same time, the west was already qualitatively light-years ahead of them, and Ukraine has (belatedly) spurred remilitarization and procurement in NATO that they can’t possibly match. Yes, they are pumping out refurbed T72s and 152mm ammo, but they are catastrophically fucked when it comes to matching up going forward. The key point that we have to consider is what the Russian leadership perceives about the balance of conventional power in the future. Our Western assumption is that, obviously, they’ll understand the situation and decide that their only choice is to reach an accommodation. This is dead wrong. I also think it’s wrong to assume that the only priority of Russian leadership is retaining their power and perks. They may be totally corrupt by our standards, but this doesn’t exclude ideology as a motivation, as we often assume it does. Putin is near the end of his life. At this point I’m comfortable with saying his motivation is near 100% ideological. The people who would likely replace him, hardcore FSB men, may also be rich as fuck, but they’ve also spent their lives plotting to advance the Russian Empire and destroy the west. It’s a huge mistake to not credit Russian leadership with the ideology they are clearly taking action to implement. Hitler and the Nazi party were corrupt as hell too. Did that stop them or mean they’d act “reasonably” to preserve their power and perks? I’ve repeatedly compared the war by Russia to Japan in WW2. It doesn’t have to be possible to win in order to try. One of Japan’s rationales for war in 1941 was that, given the collapse of naval building treaties and what they knew perfectly well about overwhelming US productive superiority, they had no choice but to act now or never. I believe the Russians will convince themselves the conventional balance of power will only get worse for them, and they can’t wait any longer and will have to go with whatever they can scrape together as soon as they can, probably behind nuke threats or nuke use. It doesn’t have to be sane, it only has to look sane to evil, desperate men. My opinion is and has been that a combination of incompetence, corruption, high-level losses, and most importantly, high stress on their system in multiple ways has probably rendered Russian leadership incapable of making sound strategic decisions. NATO needs to consider anything and everything as possible. With nukes on the table somewhere short of a full exchange, what can Russia do conventionally right now? With nukes on the table, what can Russia do after a short pause/freeze in the conflict in Ukraine to withdraw all the forces they can and reposition them, leaving the Ukrainian front guarded by a skeleton crew of infantry only? Those guys in russia have a very good idea at this point their stuff doesn't work worth a shit, their front line troops couldn't take control of much of anything that wasn't given to them by treason. They don't want to die any more than anyone else. They can just hope at this point the west gets tired of supporting Ukraine and they can escape with what they hold when it happens. When shit gets back to old fashioned commie levels because of sanctions and the war bleeding them dry, all the people who had a taste of western life will eventually have enough. Word is getting out back home to all the poor nations sending folks to work in russia that they will end up dead in the war, so they are going to have to get those bodies closer to the areas with toilets and tv and internet. There is a tipping point in russia as well, and shaking their nukes is hollow threats. If I were Poland, I would send them a picture something like this.  Attached File |
|
|
|
USA
|
Posted: 3/26/2024 9:20:56 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
I'm not against this, but seems like a more expensive and harder to implement variation of what the F-16s can likely already do. |
|
|
VA, USA
|
Posted: 3/26/2024 9:30:06 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Flogger23m: I'm not against this, but seems like a more expensive and harder to implement variation of what the F-16s can likely already do. It might be an idea arising in the marketing department. |
|
|
USA
|
Posted: 3/26/2024 9:51:10 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Esterhase: I don't agree. It's patently obvious that Russia has completely failed in every objective so far, against an opponent they should be able to defeat quickly. They're not going to take the Baltics or anywhere else because they can't do it. They're unable to. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Esterhase: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: I think you are correct. The only wild card would be NATO air power. IF Russia could reach their objectives fast, NATO would not have time to respond and would waste time arguing in committees. I don't agree. It's patently obvious that Russia has completely failed in every objective so far, against an opponent they should be able to defeat quickly. They're not going to take the Baltics or anywhere else because they can't do it. They're unable to. Russia is not even able to keep the former USSR states in their sphere of influence. Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan. They are all cozying up to China and trading with them. He needs to keep his act together as a reasonable leader if he hopes to have any influence remaining with them. |
|
|
|
Posted: 3/26/2024 9:57:23 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: Those guys in russia have a very good idea at this point their stuff doesn't work worth a shit, their front line troops couldn't take control of much of anything that wasn't given to them by treason. They don't want to die any more than anyone else. They can just hope at this point the west gets tired of supporting Ukraine and they can escape with what they hold when it happens. When shit gets back to old fashioned commie levels because of sanctions and the war bleeding them dry, all the people who had a taste of western life will eventually have enough. Word is getting out back home to all the poor nations sending folks to work in russia that they will end up dead in the war, so they are going to have to get those bodies closer to the areas with toilets and tv and internet. There is a tipping point in russia as well, and shaking their nukes is hollow threats. If I were Poland, I would send them a picture something like this. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/242375/cat_nuts_jpg-3170412.JPG Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lorazepam: Originally Posted By Capta: I’ll be the devil’s advocate on this as usual. Russia doesn’t need to be able to objectively succeed at conquering the Baltics with conventional forces to try, particularly if nukes are brought into the equation. There were a couple of videos put out by Ukraine the Latest recently where a couple of Russia experts affirmed that Russia had “basically zero chance of succeeding conventionally in the Baltics now, especially with NATO’s increased posture in the Baltics and Russia’s heavy losses.” However, they caveated that with a couple of factors, (paraphrasing) “western leadership does not understand and is having to re-learn that Russia only respects force,” and that “a newer, hungry cadre of Russian Generals is taking over their Army who have no experience with the west and don’t understand it.” They also said that “this mutual misunderstanding, combined with the idea that they believed Russian behavior was becoming increasingly irrational, left the way open for accidents.” If you look at the missile track over Poland (assuming it’s accurate) one missile took a detour over Poland for no other reason than to fly over Poland. Clearly this is a provocation and a test, and I think Russian decision makers can be forgiven for thinking NATO has failed this test, as it has failed the test throughout the war with probably dozens of other similar incidents The Russians are also probably looking at our response to the Houthis, a problem which is entirely possible they instigated to watch our response. Whether NATO actions result from an intent to sucker Russia in further, or are well-intentioned but overly bureaucratic inertia, or are feckless cowardice, they will be taken by Russian decision-makers in the manner that confirms what they want to see. It doesn’t matter if this would actually translate to unwillingness to defend NATO territory or honor article 5, it only matters that the Russians could convince themselves it would. Russia is run by sick, evil, increasingly (IMO) desperate men. They have fairly successfully put on a face of normalcy, which IMO hides a dire situation inside. Russia has always been extraordinarily insular and opaque to the West. We made a better effort to understand and counter them during the Cold War, but that knowledge has perished, and in the last 30 years we’ve returned to the idea that “they’re a European country and they must think just like us.” They are not. Perun’s video on Russian military export sales really identified how bad Russia’s DIB situation was already and was going to be in the future. Their orders have dropped to near zero, their next-gen kit are already failures which they can’t produce, and they have no money or tech exchange for development. At they same time, the west was already qualitatively light-years ahead of them, and Ukraine has (belatedly) spurred remilitarization and procurement in NATO that they can’t possibly match. Yes, they are pumping out refurbed T72s and 152mm ammo, but they are catastrophically fucked when it comes to matching up going forward. The key point that we have to consider is what the Russian leadership perceives about the balance of conventional power in the future. Our Western assumption is that, obviously, they’ll understand the situation and decide that their only choice is to reach an accommodation. This is dead wrong. I also think it’s wrong to assume that the only priority of Russian leadership is retaining their power and perks. They may be totally corrupt by our standards, but this doesn’t exclude ideology as a motivation, as we often assume it does. Putin is near the end of his life. At this point I’m comfortable with saying his motivation is near 100% ideological. The people who would likely replace him, hardcore FSB men, may also be rich as fuck, but they’ve also spent their lives plotting to advance the Russian Empire and destroy the west. It’s a huge mistake to not credit Russian leadership with the ideology they are clearly taking action to implement. Hitler and the Nazi party were corrupt as hell too. Did that stop them or mean they’d act “reasonably” to preserve their power and perks? I’ve repeatedly compared the war by Russia to Japan in WW2. It doesn’t have to be possible to win in order to try. One of Japan’s rationales for war in 1941 was that, given the collapse of naval building treaties and what they knew perfectly well about overwhelming US productive superiority, they had no choice but to act now or never. I believe the Russians will convince themselves the conventional balance of power will only get worse for them, and they can’t wait any longer and will have to go with whatever they can scrape together as soon as they can, probably behind nuke threats or nuke use. It doesn’t have to be sane, it only has to look sane to evil, desperate men. My opinion is and has been that a combination of incompetence, corruption, high-level losses, and most importantly, high stress on their system in multiple ways has probably rendered Russian leadership incapable of making sound strategic decisions. NATO needs to consider anything and everything as possible. With nukes on the table somewhere short of a full exchange, what can Russia do conventionally right now? With nukes on the table, what can Russia do after a short pause/freeze in the conflict in Ukraine to withdraw all the forces they can and reposition them, leaving the Ukrainian front guarded by a skeleton crew of infantry only? Those guys in russia have a very good idea at this point their stuff doesn't work worth a shit, their front line troops couldn't take control of much of anything that wasn't given to them by treason. They don't want to die any more than anyone else. They can just hope at this point the west gets tired of supporting Ukraine and they can escape with what they hold when it happens. When shit gets back to old fashioned commie levels because of sanctions and the war bleeding them dry, all the people who had a taste of western life will eventually have enough. Word is getting out back home to all the poor nations sending folks to work in russia that they will end up dead in the war, so they are going to have to get those bodies closer to the areas with toilets and tv and internet. There is a tipping point in russia as well, and shaking their nukes is hollow threats. If I were Poland, I would send them a picture something like this. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/242375/cat_nuts_jpg-3170412.JPG The Russian people don’t matter one bit. The only thing that matters is what a handful of evil men are prepared to do. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/26/2024 10:02:36 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: The Russian people don’t matter one bit. The only thing that matters is what a handful of evil men are prepared to do. They aren't committing suicide and giving up their opulence for it. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/26/2024 10:03:18 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime:
The President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko stated today during a Press Conference that the 4 ISIS Terrorists last Friday Night after committing their Attack in Moscow were Initially Traveling through the Bryansk Region towards the Border with Belarus, but due to Belarusian Security Forces and Military Units being placed on High Alert they were forced to Divert towards the Russia-Ukraine Border; this Statement appears to Contradict what Russian President Putin has been saying, which is that the Terrorist’s Plan from the beginning was to Escape to Ukraine.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJneOaoXYAAsEvm?format=jpg&name=large
Before admitting to being Zelensky's brother, he claimed his name was Pablo Piccaso... |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/26/2024 10:03:55 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#21]
ISW assessment for March 26th.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-26-2024 ISW special "Denying Russia's Only Strategy for Success." https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/denying-russia%E2%80%99s-only-strategy-success  |
|
|
|
USA
|
Posted: 3/26/2024 10:13:31 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: I believe the Russians will convince themselves the conventional balance of power will only get worse for them, and they can't wait any longer and will have to go with whatever they can scrape together as soon as they can, probably behind nuke threats or nuke use. It doesn't have to be sane, it only has to look sane to evil, desperate men. My opinion is and has been that a combination of incompetence, corruption, high-level losses, and most importantly, high stress on their system in multiple ways has probably rendered Russian leadership incapable of making sound strategic decisions. NATO needs to consider anything and everything as possible. Doubtful. Putin knows there is no real risk from NATO, that is why all the Russian military is in Ukraine, not on the NATO border or in Kaliningrad. It would take a huge mobilization effort just to move troops close enough to the Baltics for an assault. And where would he find the tanks for it? He just acts tough because he wants NATO to stay away from Ukraine. Consider this, the way he invaded the East of Ukraine, NATO could decide to move in from the West, to establish a buffer zone. The same way Poland was split in WWII between the Nazis and the Soviets. NATO could even use the violation of their territory as a pretext. Macron was already floating this idea, saying he would send French troops to Ukraine. That is what he is worried about and wants to prevent from happening by threatening overwhelming escalation. |
|
|
|
Posted: 3/26/2024 10:15:24 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: I missed this somehow. Do you have a link? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m: Originally Posted By Capta: If you look at the missile track over Poland (assuming it’s accurate) I missed this somehow. Do you have a link? @4xGM300m 
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/26/2024 10:19:13 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#24]
 
 
 
 
       |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/26/2024 10:34:58 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#25]
Large demonstration in #Hungary demanding the resignation of Viktor Orban.
After the pedophile scandal a new scandal erupted in Hungary following the publication of an audio recording with the voice of Judit Varga, the former minister of justice, in which she allegedly confirms the conspiracy of Hungarian government officials to hide corruption. The recording was published by a former Hungarian official and Varga's ex-husband, and now opposition leader and prominent anti-Orbán politician Péter Magyar.
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/26/2024 10:37:50 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#26]
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/26/2024 10:38:58 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#27]
"Crimean Honey Badger" is a liberation movement of Ukrainian patriots aimed at the deoccupation of Crimea. They published on their channel the following today:
"This is "Honey Badger"🫡 My comrades and I did not sit idly by and took the path of fighting against the orcs. We know firsthand what occupation is, and we have felt it ourselves. Many of our comrades come from Crimea. They were forced to leave their homes, their land. Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation into the territory of Ukraine, we have taken an active part in the fight against the occupation authorities in the southern territories of our country . Having made sure that our work was bringing good results, we realized that we needed to expand and attract like-minded people. "Crimean Honey Badger " is no longer just a group of motivated guys who care about their future. This is a full-fledged partisan movement." 👀 Let's stay excited. Voice translated ENG
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/26/2024 10:46:28 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m:
This is very interesting. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJkEyCNbIAA7TbW?format=jpg&name=4096x4096  if true.Out of all the vehicles that have been pulled out of storage and used by Russia in this war, this is one that was really at the bottom of my list to even see in theatre, never mind be destroyed. The video shows what appears to be a Ladoga protected command vehicle, I won’t talk too much about it here as I made a whole post on the vehicle, so check below for the full info on it, in short it was designed to move senior Kremlin staff around under safety in the event of a nuclear attack, it was trialled in 1986 at the Chernobyl NPP.
 
The Ladoga’s main test would be in Spring 1986 in Chernobyl, Ukrainian SSR. The vehicle with the callsign 317 was transported from Leningrad, Russian SFSR to Kyiv, Ukrainian SSR in May, the vehicle then went to the power plant to conduct chemical reconnaissance of the area, the vehicle was not alone and had a full CBRN company along with it, including decontamination systems as well as doctors and support troops. Supposedly the Ladoga even conducted extreme close up reconnaissance of the power plant, apparently inside the reactor room. The testing ended in Autumn that year, where it was sent back to Leningrad. 
 
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/26/2024 11:01:52 PM EDT
[#29]
   
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/26/2024 11:43:04 PM EDT
[#30]
Magyar video posted by AT this morning.
 ??? ?? ????: ?? ?14 ???????? ????; +????????? ???????? 4000 / 3000 ??? ? ???????  Combat Footage | Foreigners Suppressing Russian Assault Video/interview with crew of BMP hit by Lancet recently.  ?????????? ?????? ???????? ????? ?????: ?? ?????? ??? 93-? ??????? ?? ?????? |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/26/2024 11:44:01 PM EDT
[#31]
Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Rather cryptic.
Serbia in the coming days. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJogK2HXsAA1zqf?format=jpg&name=small @AlmightyTallest - Any updates? I wonder which way that pendulum is going to swing? Balkans 2024 "Cleansing Redux" or "F* Russia we support Ukraine" ? |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/27/2024 12:18:09 AM EDT
[#32]
Do a search for Kosovo on Twitter and you'll see a whole flurry of pro-Russian accounts commemorating the NATO war of aggression against Yugoslavia on March 24th.
Here's the Russian narrative regarding "the establishment of the so-called Kosovo".
It's being hypothesized that Russia was attempting to start another conflict for NATO to deal with.
Serbian news- 25 years after the bombing of Serbia, Vucic: We will never join NATO. We will respond when... Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said on Prokuplje on Monday night at the commemoration of NATO bombing day in 1999 that 25 years have passed since then. He said Serbia does not surrender and disagree with what he called "the break-up of the Serbian state". At the state conference meeting in Prokuplje, Vucic thanked the citizens from the region for going to the meeting. "The first NATO bomb to kill a Serbian soldier fell right here in Prokuplje. She killed Boban Nedeljkovic. His father said one thing that stuck in my mind. What's more important? The child or the country? Child or homeland? Even when the most terrible thing that could happen to him, he couldn't answer that question," Vucic said. "Just know that we will never join NATO. And when You accept Pristina in the Council of Europe, we will have an answer for that too," he said. President During his speech at the state-memorial gathering on the occasion of commemorating the remembrance day of those killed in NATO bombings, vucic said that today they have received Pristina as an associate member of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly. "We will never join NATO, we will preserve and defend our military neutrality. As for your lies, sanctions against Pristina and everything else, the great punishment was Serbia," Vucic claimed. He added, "No one can attack Serbs, wherever they are." https://www.balkanweb.com/25-vjet-nga-bombardimi-i-serbise-vucic-nuk-do-anetaresohemi-kurre-ne-nato-ne-do-pergjigjemi-kur/#gsc.tab=0 RT Balkan- Vučić tomorrow with the ambassadors of the Quinte countries, four topics on the table It is expected that several topics will be on the table: the request for membership, the so-called Kosovo in the Council of Europe and joining the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, blocking the dialogue with Belgrade conducted by the Pristina side, as well as the European integration of our country Tomorrow, President Aleksandar Vučić will meet with the ambassadors of the Quinte countries - the United States of America, Great Britain, France, Italy and Germany. The head of the European Union delegation in Belgrade will also be at the meeting, it was announced from the Presidency of Serbia. The meeting will be held in the building of the General Secretariat of the President of the Republic, starting at 10 am. As "Novosti" writes, several topics are expected to be on the table: the request for membership, the so-called Kosovo in the Council of Europe and joining the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, blocking the dialogue with Belgrade conducted by the Pristina side, as well as the European integration of our country. It will be an opportunity for the head of state to convey our views on the mentioned issues to the diplomatic representatives of the West. https://rt.rs/srbija-i-balkan/82529-vucic-sastanak-kvinta/ Brnabic reacted because of the disturbing picture from social networks: "A CLEAR AND UNamBIGUOUS THREAT TO THE LIFE OF PRESIDENT VUČIĆ" Serbian Parliament Speaker Ana Brnabic reacted on the occasion of the new threat to the life of President Aleksandar Vucic, embodied in the form of a death certificate that spreads on social networks, mainly in opposition groups. "Seriously ill and deeply deformed persons who do this and think it is politics will receive the response of the people in the elections in Belgrade on June 2. The competent authorities to do their job in accordance with the law, because this is neither a joke, nor is it fun, but for every normal person it is deeply disturbing and represents a clear and unprecedented threat to the life of President Vučić - wrote Ana Brnabić on the social network X. 
She says that "this and nothing else, is the result of the politics of Djilas's Serbia against violence." - We will fight this every minute, every hour, every day, every day. With Aleksandro Vučić and his family - Brnabic concluded. Kurir.rs https://www.dnevnik.rs/lat/politika/brnabic-reagovala-zbog-uznemirujuce-slike-sa-drustvenih-mreza-jasna-i-nedvosmislena-pretna-po-zivot-26-03-2024 |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/27/2024 1:33:49 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#33]
    
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/27/2024 1:34:27 AM EDT
[#34]
0:04
‼️ Yampil Donetsk region... Locals write that last night, under the (dis)guise of railway workers, a group of people set fire to five transformers of the Yampil traction substation and stole about 4 tons of copper. https://t.me/Donbas_Operativnyi/74170 |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/27/2024 1:35:40 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Capta]
[#35]
Following up my earlier wall of text post, I became interested in thinking out what a near-term Russian attack on NATO could look like.
-Stage “unrest” in Belarus. -Move vehicle and equipment assets out of Ukraine (hold with infantry alone) and into Belarus to put down the “unrest” -Then attack straight across Lithuania to the Baltic as rapidly as possible at any cost. -Simultaneously, threaten to nuke every Finnish city if they mobilize their reserve Army, and be willing to make a demonstration shot. The Finnish army is probably their most insoluble problem. Radical action could take 200,000 NATO troops out of the equation in a critical sector before they ever became a factor. -Attack and occupy Gotland Island before it can be defended, use it to directly threaten Sweden. -These two actions secure the northern flank. -Blockade the Baltics while they grind them to a pulp, threaten nuclear armageddon. Say that the Baltics never existed and a contiguous part of Russia has simply been returned to Russia. The Suwaki gap isn’t large, and there’s no strategic depth. I think the Russians have the forces right now, taking into account units in Ukraine, to do it. All they really need is the will to threaten nuclear war and to actually do it if called. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/27/2024 1:45:54 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Following up my earlier wall of text post, I became interested in thinking out what a near-term Russian attack on NATO could look like. -Stage “unrest” in Belarus. -Move vehicle and equipment assets out of Ukraine (hold with infantry alone) and into Belarus to put down the “unrest” -Then attack straight across Lithuania to the Baltic as rapidly as possible at any cost. -Simultaneously, threaten to nuke every Finnish city if they mobilize their reserve Army, and be willing to make a demonstration shot. The Finnish army is probably their most insoluble problem. Radical action could take 200,000 NATO troops out of the equation in a critical sector before they ever became a factor. -Attack and occupy Gotland Island before it can be defended, use it to directly threaten Sweden. -These two actions secure the northern flank. -Blockade the Baltics while they grind them to a pulp, threaten nuclear armageddon. Say that the Baltics never existed and a contiguous part of Russia has simply been returned to Russia. The Suwaki gap isn’t large, and there’s no strategic depth. I think the Russians have the forces right now, taking into account units in Ukraine, to do it. All they really need is the will to threaten nuclear war and to actually do it if called. 
https://hajun.info/reports/military-activity-on-the-territory-of-belarus-on-march-18-24/ |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/27/2024 2:36:13 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By strykr: Doubtful. Putin knows there is no real risk from NATO, that is why all the Russian military is in Ukraine, not on the NATO border or in Kaliningrad. It would take a huge mobilization effort just to move troops close enough to the Baltics for an assault. And where would he find the tanks for it? He just acts tough because he wants NATO to stay away from Ukraine. Consider this, the way he invaded the East of Ukraine, NATO could decide to move in from the West, to establish a buffer zone. The same way Poland was split in WWII between the Nazis and the Soviets. NATO could even use the violation of their territory as a pretext. Macron was already floating this idea, saying he would send French troops to Ukraine. That is what he is worried about and wants to prevent from happening by threatening overwhelming escalation. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By strykr: Originally Posted By Capta: I believe the Russians will convince themselves the conventional balance of power will only get worse for them, and they can't wait any longer and will have to go with whatever they can scrape together as soon as they can, probably behind nuke threats or nuke use. It doesn't have to be sane, it only has to look sane to evil, desperate men. My opinion is and has been that a combination of incompetence, corruption, high-level losses, and most importantly, high stress on their system in multiple ways has probably rendered Russian leadership incapable of making sound strategic decisions. NATO needs to consider anything and everything as possible. Doubtful. Putin knows there is no real risk from NATO, that is why all the Russian military is in Ukraine, not on the NATO border or in Kaliningrad. It would take a huge mobilization effort just to move troops close enough to the Baltics for an assault. And where would he find the tanks for it? He just acts tough because he wants NATO to stay away from Ukraine. Consider this, the way he invaded the East of Ukraine, NATO could decide to move in from the West, to establish a buffer zone. The same way Poland was split in WWII between the Nazis and the Soviets. NATO could even use the violation of their territory as a pretext. Macron was already floating this idea, saying he would send French troops to Ukraine. That is what he is worried about and wants to prevent from happening by threatening overwhelming escalation. They could raise the needed forces by staging “unrest” in Belarus, withdrawing as much as possible from Ukraine to deal with the “unrest”, leaving only a holding force, then attack directly into Lithuania from Belarus as quickly as possible. Putin (and fellow travelers) isn’t worried about the threat of invasion by NATO. Putin is worried about his diminishing ability TO INVADE NATO. The door is closing, soon. Putin wants to apply as much pressure as possible to the West, everywhere, all the time. Israel, Africa, possibly Serbia. Cause chaos everywhere, get the West behind the decision curve, then act. The Russian military is in Ukraine as a vehicle to destroy NATO and achieve hegemony over Europe by force. Putin would actually love it if Europe divided Ukraine between themselves and Russia. This has been his propaganda all along and accomplishes his ideological goal, which is to prove to the west that its ideals mean nothing, there is no “rules based order”, there is only the politics of spheres of influence. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT PUTIN WANTS. Demoralization. |
|
|
|
NV, USA
|
Posted: 3/27/2024 3:51:40 AM EDT
[#39]
Remarkable video, eery landscape with fantastic gunfire sound captured. (Some dead shown but 'just' guys on the ground)
 Ukrainian unit leader discovers dead comrades and "finishes off" Russian assault troops Takeaways: -Fighting was up close (from handgun range to 50yd), irons totally viable -Full Auto is the preferred mode of fire; AK74 shows excellent controllability due to 5.45 + Muzzle Brake + ~650rpm -WML is used in trench clearing; light is just a cheap LED taped to the handguard -Overwatch is provided by a recon quad overhead, and direction and distance of enemy is provided in real time to rifleman -The dead are looted for grenades and documents High Speed Low Drag in High Intensity Conflict:  |
|
|
|
Posted: 3/27/2024 3:58:58 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryAbsolutely watch that. Great video. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/27/2024 4:15:17 AM EDT
[#41]
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/27/2024 4:15:48 AM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryDamn, always sad to see friendly EKIA. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/27/2024 4:39:40 AM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: Remarkable video, eery landscape with fantastic gunfire sound captured. (Some dead shown but 'just' guys on the ground)  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=em_pyrJwBtMTakeaways: -Fighting was up close (from handgun range to 50yd), irons totally viable -Full Auto is the preferred mode of fire; AK74 shows excellent controllability due to 5.45 + Muzzle Brake + ~650rpm -WML is used in trench clearing; light is just a cheap LED taped to the handguard -Overwatch is provided by a recon quad overhead, and direction and distance of enemy is provided in real time to rifleman -The dead are looted for grenades and documents High Speed Low Drag in High Intensity Conflict: https://i.ibb.co/Jkd5mGM/Screen-Shot-2024-03-27-at-12-37-08-AM.png Yeah but holy crap I’d want a magnified optic to scan for targets. After all the footage I’ve watched I think ACOG/piggyback RDS is the best optic solution. But I also think that you need irons on the rifle because there are conditions that will make an optic useless. My new build has ACOG/piggyback RMR/Dueck offset irons. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/27/2024 5:04:50 AM EDT
[#44]
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/27/2024 7:37:25 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By William_lxix: @AlmightyTallest - Any updates? I wonder which way that pendulum is going to swing? Balkans 2024 "Cleansing Redux" or "F* Russia we support Ukraine" ? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By William_lxix: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Rather cryptic.
Serbia in the coming days. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJogK2HXsAA1zqf?format=jpg&name=small @AlmightyTallest - Any updates? I wonder which way that pendulum is going to swing? Balkans 2024 "Cleansing Redux" or "F* Russia we support Ukraine" ? I haven't found anything else after that report. It basically says to stay tuned as more info will come out so I will be sure to post anything else related to it. Prime's post just below your's last night might give some good insight on where it could be swinging though.
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/27/2024 7:55:19 AM EDT
[#46]
|
|
|
|
USA
|
Posted: 3/27/2024 7:55:30 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 4xGM300m]
[#47]
Andrew had a long night.
 ETA: Beaten by 11 seconds. |
|
|
|
Posted: 3/27/2024 7:59:48 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#48]
The beatings will continue until morale improves.
|
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/27/2024 8:05:12 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Well said, this is how I see the situation as well. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By DK-Prof: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu: This is also why I'm convinced that Putin absolutely could take the Baltics. NATO has to have their committees & consensus building, and press announcements. Give Russia 36 hours, and facts on the ground can be established that NATO would find extremely difficult to overturn. Putin now knows for certain that NATO's ground forces are very thin, with very limited equipment stocks. "I just took the Baltics, what are you going to do about it? BTW, I promise not to do anything else against any other NATO nation, ever. Let's make a peace deal." That has the potential to throw a wrench into NATOs political considerations, and possibly end NATO as a going concern. People keep making statements of faith in NATO, and I just no longer have that level of confidence. Whether I'm right or wrong, I don't assume any particular action or outcome for NATO anymore. "Of course we would go to war for Estonia." Really? I think you are correct. The only wild card would be NATO air power. IF Russia could reach their objectives fast, NATO would not have time to respond and would waste time arguing in committees. I disagree, for two reasons. 1. A variety of NATO forces have troops in the Baltic states, and so a Russian invasion/attack would involve DIRECT combat with more "traditional" NATO forces. Once that happens, then it's no longer a question of how committed we are to Article 5 or "mutual defense" - then it is a matter of actually already being in a hot shooting war with Russia. 2. NATO (primarily the US) air power would absolutely annihilate any Russian assets in the air, which would give NATO complete dominance of the skies over the Baltics - which means that killing Russian forces on the ground would be as easy as shooting fish in a barrel. The Ukraine war has shown how sub-part Russian (and old Soviet) airplanes and air defenses are. Also, keep in mind that with modern surveillance (especially US satellites), we would have considerable warning of a Russian invasion of any or all of the Baltic states, and would move assets (both ground forces, as well as air defense) into the area before any actual invasion. Remember - Putin PRIMARILY cares about remaining in power. Restoring the glory of the USSR or Russian Empire is a secondary goal, driven by this ego - but his primarily goal will always be to remain in power, and he will do anything necessary to that end. Putin understands that a direct non-nuclear war with NATO would mean the destructions of his military (even given the current shortcomings of many European militaries). Once his military power is gone, his tenure as a strong-man dictator may not last long. As a result, I think he REALLY wants to avoid a direct confrontation with NATO. All of his empty posturing and threats (especially nuclear one) are a sign of weakness and fear, not of strength and confidence. Those are the behaviors of a bully who is ultimately a coward and doesn't want to fight. Putin also understands that a nuclear confrontation with NATO would result in the destruction of his country, his powerbase, and any chance of remaining in power. Based on that, I think the chance of Putin going for a NATO country is pretty close to zero. Well said, this is how I see the situation as well. Concur. Well thought out. |
|
|
|
|
Posted: 3/27/2024 8:06:29 AM EDT
[#50]
|
|
|
|
Win a FREE Membership!
Sign up for the ARFCOM weekly newsletter and be entered to win a free ARFCOM membership. One new winner* is announced every week!
You will receive an email every Friday morning featuring the latest chatter from the hottest topics, breaking news surrounding legislation, as well as exclusive deals only available to ARFCOM email subscribers.
AR15.COM is the world's largest firearm community and is a gathering place for firearm enthusiasts of all types.
From hunters and military members, to competition shooters and general firearm enthusiasts, we welcome anyone who values and respects the way of the firearm.
Subscribe to our monthly Newsletter to receive firearm news, product discounts from your favorite Industry Partners, and more.
Copyright © 1996-2024 AR15.COM LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Any use of this content without express written consent is prohibited.
AR15.Com reserves the right to overwrite or replace any affiliate, commercial, or monetizable links, posted by users, with our own.
