First off, tremendous props to LoBrau, who saw Ukraine coming well in advance and started a record setting thread. May that record stand forever, because nothing would please us more than for there to no longer be anything to talk about.

What has become evident since February of 2022 is that there is a global reshuffling taking place, with three primary players behind most of the conflict in the world today. Discussion of current geopolitics cannot be constrained to one country or conflict.

What this thread is:
News and discussion related to political / military actions by Russia / Iran / China and their proxies, chief among those, North Korea.
News and discussion of the relationships between Russia / Iran / China and their proxies.
News and discussion of responses to Russia / Iran / China and their proxies.
Related Grey Zone / hybrid warfare / “competition short of war.”
Relevant or interesting technical discussion.
Relevant economic / social / historical discussion.
Reliable reporting from Russian / Iranian / Chinese sources.
Russian / Iranian / Chinese perspectives and factual evaluation thereof.
Political topics in the US and / or elsewhere which bear directly on these issues, including the politics of foreign aid.
Current focus is on the Russian war against and in Ukraine, however this could change if the Ukraine war cooled off and Taiwan heated up.  Related topics are always allowed.
Secondary but related topics like Wagner in Africa, uprising in Georgia, or a Third Chechen War.
Reasonable tangents.

What this thread is not:
US and / or foreign political issues which do not directly bear on these topics, including campaigning / advocating for one party or candidate.

General rules:
Discussion is expected to be conducted in good faith and assertions of fact should be substantiated.
In case of a question on whether a subtopic or line of discussion is relevant to this thread, the following members should be considered co-owners with decision making authority- AlmightyTallest, Capta, and SaltwaterHillbilly.



The Axis of Upheaval
How America’s Adversaries Are Uniting to Overturn the Global Order

By Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Richard Fontaine
May/June 2024
Published on April 23, 2024



In the early morning of January 2, Russian forces launched a massive missile attack on the Ukrainian cities of Kyiv and Kharkiv that killed at least five civilians, injured more than 100, and damaged infrastructure. The incident was notable not just for the harm it caused but also because it showed that Russia was not alone in its fight. The Russian attack that day was carried out with weapons fitted with technology from China, missiles from North Korea, and drones from Iran. Over the past two years, all three countries have become critical enablers of Moscow’s war machine in Ukraine.

Since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, Moscow has deployed more than 3,700 Iranian-designed drones. Russia now produces at least 330 on its own each month and is collaborating with Iran on plans to build a new drone factory inside Russia that will boost these numbers. North Korea has sent Russia ballistic missiles and more than 2.5 million rounds of ammunition, just as Ukrainian stockpiles have dwindled. China, for its part, has become Russia’s most important lifeline. Beijing has ramped up its purchase of Russian oil and gas, putting billions of dollars into Moscow’s coffers. Just as significantly, China provides vast amounts of warfighting technology, from semiconductors and electronic devices to radar- and communications-jamming equipment and jet-fighter parts. Customs records show that despite Western trade sanctions, Russia’s imports of computer chips and chip components have been steadily rising toward prewar levels. More than half of these goods come from China.

The support from China, Iran, and North Korea has strengthened Russia’s position on the battlefield, undermined Western attempts to isolate Moscow, and harmed Ukraine. This collaboration, however, is just the tip of the iceberg. Cooperation among the four countries was expanding before 2022, but the war has accelerated their deepening economic, military, political, and technological ties. The four powers increasingly identify common interests, match up their rhetoric, and coordinate their military and diplomatic activities. Their convergence is creating a new axis of upheaval—a development that is fundamentally altering the geopolitical landscape.

The group is not an exclusive bloc and certainly not an alliance. It is, instead, a collection of dissatisfied states converging on a shared purpose of overturning the principles, rules, and institutions that underlie the prevailing international system. When these four countries cooperate, their actions have far greater effect than the sum of their individual efforts. Working together, they enhance one another’s military capabilities; dilute the efficacy of U.S. foreign policy tools, including sanctions; and hinder the ability of Washington and its partners to enforce global rules. Their collective aim is to create an alternative to the current order, which they consider to be dominated by the United States.

Too many Western observers have been quick to dismiss the implications of coordination among China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. The four countries have their differences, to be sure, and a history of distrust and contemporary fissures may limit how close their relationships will grow. Yet their shared aim of weakening the United States and its leadership role provides a strong adhesive. In places across Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, the ambitions of axis members have already proved to be destabilizing. Managing the disruptive effects of their further coordination and preventing the axis from upsetting the global system must now be central objectives of U.S. foreign policy.

THE ANTI-WESTERN CLUB

Collaboration among axis members is not new. China and Russia have been strengthening their partnership since the end of the Cold War—a trend that accelerated rapidly after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. China’s share of Russian external trade doubled from ten to 20 percent between 2013 and 2021, and between 2018 and 2022 Russia supplied a combined total of 83 percent of China’s arms imports. Russian technology has helped the Chinese military enhance its air defense, antiship, and submarine capabilities, making China a more formidable force in a potential naval conflict. Beijing and Moscow have also expressed a shared vision. In early 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping signed a joint manifesto pledging a “no limits” partnership between their two countries and calling for “international relations of a new type”—in other words, a multipolar system that is no longer dominated by the United States.

Iran has strengthened its ties with other axis members as well. Iran and Russia worked together to keep Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in power after the onset of civil war in 2011. Joining Russia’s efforts, which include major energy agreements with Iran to shield Tehran from the effects of U.S. sanctions, China has purchased large quantities of Iranian oil since 2020. North Korea, for its part, has counted China as its primary ally and trade partner for decades, and North Korea and Russia have maintained warm, if not particularly substantive, ties. Iran has purchased North Korean missiles since the 1980s, and more recently, North Korea is thought to have supplied weapons to Iranian proxy groups, including Hezbollah and possibly Hamas. Pyongyang and Tehran have also bonded over a shared aversion to Washington: as a senior North Korean official, Kim Yong Nam, declared during a ten-day trip to Iran in 2017, the two countries “have a common enemy.”

But the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 hastened the convergence among these four countries in ways that transcend their historical ties. Moscow has been among Tehran’s top suppliers of weapons over the past two decades and is now its largest source of foreign investment; Russian exports to Iran rose by 27 percent in the first ten months of 2022. Over the past two years, according to the White House, Russia has been sharing more intelligence with and providing more weapons to Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies, and Moscow has defended those proxies in debates at the UN Security Council. Last year, Russia displaced Saudi Arabia as China’s largest source of crude oil and trade between the two countries topped $240 billion, a record high. Moscow has also released millions of dollars in North Korean assets that previously sat frozen in Russian banks in compliance with Security Council sanctions. China, Iran, and Russia have held joint naval exercises in the Gulf of Oman three years in a row, most recently in March 2024. Russia has also proposed trilateral naval drills with China and North Korea.

The growing cooperation among China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia is fueled by their shared opposition to the Western-dominated global order, an antagonism rooted in their belief that that system does not accord them the status or freedom of action they deserve. Each country claims a sphere of influence: China’s “core interests,” which extend to Taiwan and the South China Sea; Iran’s “axis of resistance,” the set of proxy groups that give Tehran leverage in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and elsewhere; North Korea’s claim to the entire Korean Peninsula; and Russia’s “near abroad,” which for the Kremlin includes, at a minimum, the countries that composed its historic empire. All four countries see the United States as the primary obstacle to establishing these spheres of influence, and they want Washington’s presence in their respective regions reduced.

All reject the principle of universal values and interpret the West’s championing of its brand of democracy as an attempt to undermine their legitimacy and foment domestic instability. They insist that individual states have the right to define democracy for themselves. In the end, although they may make temporary accommodations with the United States, they do not believe that the West will accept their rise (or return) to power on the world stage. They oppose external meddling in their internal affairs, the expansion of U.S. alliances, the stationing of American nuclear weapons abroad, and the use of coercive sanctions.

Any positive vision for the future, however, is more elusive. Yet history shows that a positive agenda may not be necessary for a group of discontented powers to cause disruption. The 1940 Tripartite Pact uniting Germany, Italy, and Japan—the original “Axis”—pledged to “establish and maintain a new order of things” in which each country would claim “its own proper place.” They did not succeed, but World War II certainly brought global upheaval. The axis of China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia does not need a coherent plan for an alternative international order to upset the existing system. The countries’ shared opposition to the present order’s core tenets and their determination to bring about change form a powerful basis for collaborative action.

Fissures do exist among members of the axis. China and Russia vie for influence in Central Asia, for instance, while Iran and Russia compete for oil markets in China, India, and elsewhere in Asia. The four countries have complicated histories with each other, too. The Soviet Union invaded Iran in 1941; Russia and China settled their long-standing border dispute only in 2004 and had both previously supported efforts to limit Iran’s nuclear programs and to isolate North Korea. Today, China may look askance at North Korea’s deepening relationship with Russia, worrying that an emboldened Kim Jong Un will aggravate tensions in Northeast Asia and draw in a larger U.S. military presence, which China does not want. Yet their differences are insufficient to dissolve the bonds forged by their common resistance to a Western-dominated world.

CATALYST IN THE KREMLIN

Moscow has been the main instigator of this axis. The invasion of Ukraine marked a point of no return in Putin’s long-standing crusade against the West. Putin has grown more committed to destroying not only Ukraine but also the global order. And he has doubled down on relationships with like-minded countries to accomplish his aims. Cut off from Western trade, investment, and technology since the start of the war, Moscow has had little choice but to rely on its partners to sustain its hostilities. The ammunition, drones, microchips, and other forms of aid that axis members have sent have been of great help to Russia. But the more the Kremlin relies on these countries, the more it must give away in return. Beijing, Pyongyang, and Tehran are taking advantage of their leverage over Moscow to expand their military capabilities and economic options.

Even before the Russian invasion, Moscow’s military assistance to Beijing was eroding the United States’ military advantage over China. Russia has provided ever more sophisticated weapons to China, and the two countries’ joint military exercises have grown in scope and frequency. Russian officers who have fought in Syria and in Ukraine’s Donbas region have shared valuable lessons with Chinese personnel, helping the People’s Liberation Army make up for its lack of operational experience—a notable weakness relative to more seasoned U.S. forces. China’s military modernization has reduced the urgency of deepening defense cooperation with Russia, but the two countries are likely to proceed with technology transfers and joint weapons development and production. In February, for instance, Russian officials confirmed that they were working with Chinese counterparts on military applications of artificial intelligence. Moscow retains an edge over Beijing in other key areas, including submarine technology, remote sensing satellites, and aircraft engines. If China can pressure a more dependent Russia to provide additional advanced technologies, the transfer could further undermine the United States’ advantages.

A similar dynamic is playing out in Russia’s relations with Iran and North Korea. Moscow and Tehran have forged what the Biden administration has called an “unprecedented defense partnership” that upgrades Iranian military capabilities. Russia has provided Iran with advanced aircraft, air defense, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and cyber-capabilities that would help Tehran resist a potential U.S. or Israeli military operation. And in return for North Korea’s ammunition and other military support to Russia, Pyongyang is reportedly seeking advanced space, missile, and submarine technology from Moscow. If Russia were to comply with those requests, North Korea would be able to improve the accuracy and survivability of its nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles and use Russian nuclear propulsion technology to expand the range and capability of its submarines. Already, Russia’s testing of North Korean weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine has supplied Pyongyang with information it can use to refine its missile program, and Russian assistance may have helped North Korea launch a military spy satellite in November after two previous failures last year.

Strong relations among the four axis countries have emboldened leaders in Pyongyang and Tehran. Kim, who now enjoys strong backing from both China and Russia, abandoned North Korea’s decades-old policy of peaceful unification with South Korea and stepped up its threats against Seoul, indulged in nuclear blackmail and missile tests, and expressed a lack of any interest in talks with the United States. And although there does not appear to be a direct connection between their deepening partnership and Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, growing support from Russia likely made Iran more willing to activate its regional proxies in the aftermath. The coordinated diplomacy and pressure from Russia and the West that brought Iran into the 2015 nuclear deal are now a distant memory. Today, Moscow and Beijing are helping Tehran resist Western coercion, making it easier for Iran to enrich uranium and reject Washington’s efforts to negotiate a new nuclear agreement.

AMERICA UNDERMINED

Collaboration among the axis members also reduces the potency of tools that Washington and its partners often use to confront them. In the most glaring example, since the start of the war in Ukraine, China has supplied Russia with semiconductors and other essential technologies that Russia previously imported from the West, undercutting the efficacy of Western export controls. All four countries are also working to reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar. The share of Russia’s imports invoiced in Chinese renminbi jumped from three percent in 2021 to 20 percent in 2022. And in December 2023, Iran and Russia finalized an agreement to conduct bilateral trade in their local currencies. By moving their economic transactions out of reach of U.S. enforcement measures, axis members undermine the efficacy of Western sanctions, as well as anticorruption and anti-money-laundering efforts.

Taking advantage of their shared borders and littoral zones, China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia can build trade and transportation networks safe from U.S. interdiction. Iran, for example, ships drones and other weapons to Russia across the Caspian Sea, where the United States has little power to stop transfers. If the United States were engaged in conflict with China in the Indo-Pacific, Beijing could seek support from Moscow. Russia might increase its overland exports of oil and gas to its southern neighbor, reducing China’s dependence on maritime energy imports that U.S. forces could block during a conflict. Russia’s defense industrial base, now in overdrive to supply weapons for Russian troops in Ukraine, could later pivot to sustain a Chinese war effort. Such cooperation would increase the odds of China’s prevailing over the American military and help advance Russia’s goal of diminishing the United States’ geopolitical influence.

The axis is also hindering Washington’s ability to rally international coalitions that can stand against its members’ destabilizing actions. China’s refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, for example, made it far easier for countries across Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East to do the same. And Beijing and Moscow have impeded Western efforts to isolate Iran. Last year, they elevated Iran from observer to member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a predominantly Asian regional body, and then orchestrated an invitation for Iran to join the BRICS—a group that China and Russia view as a counterweight to the West. Iran’s regional meddling and nuclear pursuits have made other countries wary of dealing with its government, but its participation in international forums enhances the regime’s legitimacy and presents it with opportunities to expand trade with fellow member states.

Parallel efforts by axis members in the information domain further weaken international support for U.S. positions. China, Iran, and North Korea either defended or avoided explicitly condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and they all parroted the Kremlin in accusing NATO of inciting the war. Their response to Hamas’s attacks on Israel last October followed a similar pattern. Iran used the state media and social media accounts to express support for Hamas, vilify Israel, and denounce the United States for enabling Israel’s military response, while the Russian and, to a lesser extent, Chinese media sharply criticized the United States’ enduring support for Israel. They used the war in Gaza to portray Washington as a destabilizing, domineering force in the world—a narrative that is particularly resonant in parts of Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. Even if axis members do not overtly coordinate their messages, they push the same themes, and the repetition makes them appear more credible and persuasive.

AN ALTERNATIVE ORDER?

Global orders magnify the strength of the powerful states that lead them. The United States, for instance, has invested in the liberal international order it helped create because this order reflects American preferences and extends U.S. influence. As long as an order remains sufficiently beneficial to most members, a core group of states will defend it. Dissenting countries, meanwhile, are bound by a collective action problem. If they were to defect en masse, they could succeed in creating an alternative order more to their liking. But without a core cluster of powerful states around which they can coalesce, the advantage remains with the existing order.

For decades, threats to the U.S.-led order were limited to a handful of rogue states with little power to upend it. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the restructuring of interstate relations it prompted have lifted the constraint on collective action. The axis of upheaval represents a new center of gravity, a group that other countries dissatisfied with the existing order can turn to. The axis is ushering in an international system characterized by two orders that are becoming increasingly organized and competitive.

Historically, competing orders have invited conflict, especially at the geographical seams between them. Wars arise from specific conditions, such as a territorial dispute, the need to protect national interests or the interests of an ally, or a threat to the survival of a regime. But the likelihood that any of those conditions will lead to war increases in the presence of dueling orders. Some political science researchers have found that periods in which a single order prevailed—the balance-of-power system maintained by the Concert of Europe for much of the nineteenth century, for example, or the U.S.-dominated post–Cold War era—were less prone to conflicts than those characterized by more than one order, such as the multipolar period between the two world wars and the bipolar system of the Cold War.

The world has gotten a preview of the instability this new era of competing orders will bring, with potential aggressors empowered by the axis’s normalization of alternative rules and less afraid of being isolated if they act out. Already, Hamas’s attack on Israel threatens to engulf the wider Middle East in war. Last October, Azerbaijan forcibly took control of Nagorno-Karabakh, a breakaway region inhabited by ethnic Armenians. Tensions flared between Serbia and Kosovo in 2023, too, and Venezuela threatened to seize territory in neighboring Guyana in December. Although internal conditions precipitated the coups in Myanmar and across Africa’s Sahel region since 2020, the rising incidence of such revolts is connected to the new international arrangement. For many years, it seemed that coups were becoming less common, in large part because plotters faced significant costs for violating norms. Now, however, the calculations have changed. Overthrowing a government may still shatter relations with the West, but the new regimes can find support in Beijing and Moscow.

Further development of the axis would bring even greater tumult. So far, most collaboration among China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia has been bilateral. Trilateral and quadrilateral action could expand their capacity for disruption. Countries such as Belarus, Cuba, Eritrea, Nicaragua, and Venezuela—all of which chafe against the U.S.-led, Western-dominated system—could also begin working more closely with the axis. If the group grows in size and tightens its coordination, the United States and its allies will have a more difficult time defending the recognized order.

TAKING ON THE REVISIONISTS

For now, U.S. national security strategy ranks China as a higher priority than Iran, North Korea, or even Russia. That assessment is strategically sound when considering the threat that individual countries pose to the United States, but it does not fully account for the cooperation among them. U.S. policy will need to address the destabilizing effects of revisionist countries’ acting in concert, and it should try to disrupt their coordinated efforts to subvert important international rules and institutions. Washington, furthermore, should undercut the axis’s appeal by sharpening the attractions of the existing order.

If the United States is to counter an increasingly coordinated axis, it cannot treat each threat as an isolated phenomenon. Washington should not ignore Russian aggression in Europe, for example, in order to focus on rising Chinese power in Asia. It is already clear that Russia’s success in Ukraine benefits a revisionist China by showing that it is possible, if costly, to thwart a united Western effort. Even as Washington rightly sees China as its top priority, addressing the challenge from Beijing will require competing with other members of the axis in other parts of the world. To be effective, the United States will need to devote additional resources to national security, engage in more vigorous diplomacy, develop new and stronger partnerships, and take a more activist role in the world than it has of late.

Driving wedges between members of the axis, on the other hand, will not work. Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, some strategists suggested that the United States align itself with Russia to balance China. After the war began, a few held out hope that the United States could join China in an anti-Russian coalition. But unlike President Richard Nixon’s opening to China in the 1970s, which took advantage of a Sino-Soviet split to draw Beijing further away from Moscow, there is no equivalent ideological or geopolitical rivalry for Washington to exploit today. The price of trying would likely involve U.S. recognition of a Russian or Chinese sphere of influence in Europe and Asia—regions central to U.S. interests and ones that Washington should not allow a hostile foreign power to dominate. Breaking Iran or North Korea off from the rest of the axis would be even more difficult, given their governments’ revisionist, even revolutionary aims. Ultimately, the axis is a problem the United States must manage, not one it can solve with grand strategic gestures.

Neither the West nor the axis will become wholly distinct political, military, and economic blocs. Each coalition will compete for influence all over the world, trying to draw vital countries closer to its side. Six “global swing states” will be particularly important: Brazil, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey are all middle powers with enough collective geopolitical weight for their policy preferences to sway the future direction of the international order. These six countries—and others, too—can be expected to pursue economic, diplomatic, military, and technological ties with members of both orders. U.S. policymakers should make it a priority to deny advantages to the axis in these countries, encouraging their governments to choose policies that favor the prevailing order. In practice, that means using trade incentives, military engagement, foreign aid, and diplomacy to prevent swing states from hosting axis members’ military bases, giving axis members access to their technology infrastructure or military equipment, or helping them circumvent Western sanctions.

Although competition with the axis may be inevitable, the United States must try to avoid direct conflict with any of its members. To that end, Washington should reaffirm its security commitments to bolster deterrence in the western Pacific, in the Middle East, on the Korean Peninsula, and on NATO’s eastern flank. The United States and its allies should also prepare for opportunistic aggression. If a Chinese invasion of Taiwan prompts U.S. military intervention, for instance, Russia may be tempted to move against another European country, and Iran or North Korea could escalate threats in their regions. Even if the axis members do not coordinate their aggression directly, concurrent conflicts could overwhelm the West. Washington will therefore need to press allies to invest in capabilities that the United States could not provide if it were already engaged in another military theater.

Confronting the axis will be expensive. A new strategy will require the United States to bolster its spending on defense, foreign aid, diplomacy, and strategic communications. Washington must direct aid to the frontlines of conflict between the axis and the West—including assistance to Israel, Taiwan, and Ukraine, all of which face encroachment by axis members. Revisionists are emboldened by the sense that political divisions at home or exhaustion with international engagement will keep the United States on the sidelines of this competition; a comprehensive, well-resourced U.S. strategy with bipartisan support would help counter that impression. The alternative—a reduction in the U.S. global presence—would leave the fate of crucial regions in the hands not of friendly local powers but of axis members seeking to impose their revisionist and illiberal preferences.

THE FOUR-POWER THREAT

There is a tendency to downplay the significance of growing cooperation among China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. By turning to Beijing, this argument goes, Moscow merely signals its acceptance of the role of junior partner. Obtaining drones from Iran and munitions from North Korea demonstrates the desperation of a Russian war machine that incorrectly assumed that conquering Ukraine would be easy. China’s embrace of Russia shows only that Beijing could not achieve the positive relationship it originally sought with Europe and other Western powers. North Korea remains the world’s most isolated country, and Iran’s disruptive activities have backfired, strengthening regional cooperation among Israel, the United States, and Gulf countries.

Such analysis ignores the severity of the threat. Four powers, growing in strength and coordination, are united in their opposition to the prevailing world order and its U.S. leadership. Their combined economic and military capacity, together with their determination to change the way the world has worked since the end of the Cold War, make for a dangerous mix. This is a group bent on upheaval, and the United States and its partners must treat the axis as the generational challenge it is. They must reinforce the foundations of the international order and push back against those who act most vigorously to undermine it. It is likely impossible to arrest the emergence of this new axis, but keeping it from upending the current system is an achievable goal.

The West has everything it needs to triumph in this contest. Its combined economy is far larger, its militaries are significantly more powerful, its geography is more advantageous, its values are more attractive, and its democratic system is more stable. The United States and its partners should be confident in their own strengths, even as they appreciate the scale of effort necessary to compete with this budding anti-Western coalition. The new axis has already changed the picture of geopolitics—but Washington and its partners can still prevent the world of upheaval the axis hopes to usher in.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/axis-upheaval-russia-iran-north-korea-taylor-fontaine

The panic is real! Rybar reports extensive use by Ukraine of DECOYS, that with help of western surveillance, are mapping out location of every single AD system in Crimea in preparation for multiple attacks on multiple targets (including Kerch Bridge) by Storm Shadow and ATACMS \uD83E\uDD23 pic.twitter.com/ueb4Xiwhh0

— ITDUDE Fella \uD83C\uDDEE\uD83C\uDDF1\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDF8 (@The_Real_ITDUDE) April 24, 2024

?? "We are waiting for 7 PATRIOT air defence system batteries", - Kuleba

\uD83D\uDC40 One was received from Germany, negotiations are underway for four more, and he saw 2 more batteries personally.

\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDF8 Kuleba hinted that the eighth system may "leave the US". pic.twitter.com/8XL4k1MrWH

— MAKS 23 \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6\uD83D\uDC40 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) April 24, 2024

Biden signs aid packages into law.  Another necessary step toward the dissolution of the Russian Empire:

There’s no room to swing a cat when an event to commemorate the “International Day of Multilateralism and Diplomacy for Peace” at the the UN \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDF3 HQs is organized by members of the “Group of Friends in Defense of the Charter of the UN” -  Russia, Belarus, Syria, North Korea, Iran… pic.twitter.com/IglCnQcg22

— Sergiy Kyslytsya \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@SergiyKyslytsya) April 24, 2024

US secretly sent long-range missiles to Ukraine after months of resistance



The US delivered long-range missiles to Ukraine earlier this month that the Biden administration had previously refused to send following a directive from President Joe Biden, the Pentagon said Wednesday.

Biden secretly approved the transfer of the long-range ATACMS missiles in February for use inside Ukrainian territory. The ATACMS missiles were then quietly included in the $300 million aid package announced on March 12 and ultimately delivered to Ukraine earlier this month, according to Pentagon spokesman Lt. Col. Garron Garn.

“It was not announced that we are providing Ukraine with this new capability at the time in order to maintain operational security for Ukraine at their request,” Garn said, deferring questions about their use to Ukraine’s military.

The Biden administration had resisted sending the long-range missiles in part because of readiness concerns. The powerful missiles require time and complex components to produce. Lockheed Martin, which manufactures the ATACMS missiles, is in full-rate production and produces approximately 500 missiles per year, a spokesman for the company said in September.

The US worked behind the scenes to address the readiness concerns, which included buying more ATACMS missiles and filling US military stocks.

“As a result, we were able to move forward with this provision of ATACMS while also maintaining the current readiness of our armed forces,” said Pentagon spokesman Maj. Charlie Dietz.

Biden also directed his team to take this step following Russia’s procurement and use of North Korean ballistic missiles against Ukraine, and Russia’s attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, a US official said.

“We had warned Russia against acquiring North Korean ballistic missiles and against renewing its attacks against Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure,” Dietz said. “With our readiness concerns resolved, we were able to follow through on our warning and provide this long-range capability to Ukraine.”

More of the missiles are expecting to be included in the new military assistance package the Pentagon announced on Wednesday after Biden signed into law an aid package providing nearly $61 billion in assistance for Ukraine following months of delays in Congress.

Last fall, the US first sent Ukraine the mid-range variant of the ATACMS missile system, which can reach about 100 miles, while the longer-range version can reach as far as 190 miles.

Ukrainian officials have been asking the US in private and in public for the long-range missiles to target deeper behind Russian lines. American officials have previously resisted, citing supply issues and concerns about further provoking Moscow if they are deployed.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/24/politics/us-secretly-sent-long-range-missiles-to-ukraine/index.html

From 17Apr-

In Russia, specifically in the Republic of Dagestan, a curious incident unfolded. Local traffic officers attempted to detain the driver of a GMC truck who purportedly disregarded a police officer's signal at a checkpoint and even attempted to run down another officer before being forcibly stopped, which was captured on video. Additionally, the driver was found to be heavily intoxicated.

The driver turned out to be Alikhan Tsakaev, the Minister of Emergency Situations of Chechnya and a Major General of the Internal Service, holding a high-ranking position. Furthermore, the GMC truck was revealed to have been stolen from Canada.

What ensued following the incident? Despite the gravity of the offense, upon Tsakaev's detention, 11 vehicles from Chechnya, including three traffic police vehicles, arrived at the scene. Amidst a confrontation, with threats of firearm usage, the group forcibly removed the detainee, evidently overstepping official authority and threatening police officers on duty with murder.

Official authorities failed to comment on the incident.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1780911824868704543

Ramzan Kadyrov commented on this incident, stating that a group of individuals attempted to detain Tsakaev without justification, despite him not violating any rules, as he was off-duty and without official documents or uniform. It appears to be a targeted provocation against… https://t.co/CcIFK1cGSO

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) April 18, 2024

The Cheka-OGPU became aware of the true chronology of events involving the detention of general from Chechnya Alikhan Tsakaev at the Gerzel checkpoint in Dagestan.

As our editors found out, on April 16, the head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Chechen Republic got behind the wheel of an SUV drunk and drove from Chechnya to the neighboring republic to buy alcohol, since at home there is a very strict “prohibition law” even for holders of four Orders of Courage. This path has been trodden for a long time and Tsakaev is far from being a pioneer here. The nearest liquor store is 5 minutes from the federal post - an ideal round trip route. But the plans of the main rescuer of Chechnya, and perhaps those who sent an entire general for more, were not destined to come true. All because Alikhan Tsakaev’s jeep, prancing along the oncoming lane from Chechnya, too clearly violated and did not change its driving style even when it entered the territory of its neighbors. Cultural attempts to stop the auto brawler were unsuccessful and what happened happened. The moment when the general was screwed was seen by many Russians.

As a source told the Cheka-OGPU, employees document even the most insignificant incident at a federal post: they inform their colleagues from the Novolaksky department and immediately deliver the detainees there. But this time, the Department of Internal Affairs for the Novolaksky district had neither registration of the KUSP nor inspection materials. The head of the department learned about the situation only after a call from the Ministry. A mobile group was sent to the post, but Tsakaev was no longer there, and the head of the checkpoint, Vitaly Ch., made it clear that he did not intend to report this incident. As for why Alikhan Tsakaev was released, chief Vitaly Ch. explained how it was formalized. According to the Chechen traffic police officers who arrived to pick up the general, the head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Chechen Republic violated traffic rules while still on the territory of Chechnya and hid from the traffic police officers. And at the checkpoint, the chase finally overtook the offender and the traffic police took the driver to investigate.

In reality, after the Chechen traffic police, officers from the Chechen National Guard arrived to save the general, took Tsakaev by force, and hit the Dagestan police several times.

https://t.me/vchkogpu/47615

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Dr Snyder talks about historical parallels from WW2 to the Russian effort to destroy Ukraine.  Points out 1938 and 1939 where the cooperation of European powers, and then their fearful and hesitant reactions early on made the Second World War possible when it could’ve been stopped.  Also discussion of the slide away from democratic values.

AMAZING VIDEO.  Infantry POV of an assaulting Russian BMP lighting up a treeline with 30mm before getting FUCKING OBLITERATED.  Superb!

UA kamikaze strike on Russian motorcycle.  Two killed.  EXTREMELY NSFW.

Ground POV, Ukrainian Mig-29 shoots down unknown drone.

Russia uses rape systematically against both civilians and POWs

Russian forces reported to be pushing in Kupiansk area again.

100 ATACMS reported to have been secretly provided last week, more on the way.

Good video about Swedish systems at the front.  ARCHER, STRV122, CV90

Russian deputy defense minister arrested for corruption

Article suggests that recent arrests for “bribery/corruption” within the Russian MOD indicate that Shoigu is losing an internal power struggle to the FSB.

And in a twist, Ukrainian HUR counterintelligence service claims to have planted the evidence that got Ivanov busted.

Close-up video of Ural APC with full-body cope cage

Russian POV - aftermath of a towed 152mm howitzer barrel failure.  Quite interesting, maybe the experts can tell something.

Several-minute video on Ukrainian anti-drone EW development

Convoy of donated emergency vehicles headed to Ukraine

Series of effective drone drops on Russian infantry

Russians hit Kharkiv residential buildings with S300s

Project Maven - US AI experiment has mixed results in Ukraine

The biggest issue I have is funding taiwan and israel to an extent. They have decent economies andn it isn't exactly a secret they have issues with neighbors, and have had them for 80 years, and have had the time and resources to arm themselves. Ukraine on the other hand was stripped of it's ability to defend it's self with a hollow treaty, and multiple visits from democrat officials between 1991 and up to 2014 to convince them to get rid of the very things they badly need right now.
BTW the EU is getting off their asses, and have contributed more than we have since the start.

lol

After the downing of the enemy Tu22M3, the number of strategic aviation of the Russian Federation decreased in the Black Sea, - the spokesman of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Ilya Yevlash told the TV channel "Espresso".

"The enemy has been fighting at full strength for a long time. The only thing left in his arsenal is the use of nuclear weapons.
The enemy uses all available types of missiles and carriers for them, strategic and tactical aviation.
Hypersonic weapons "Zircon", "Dagger" are used. It's hard to say how much more.
Currently, the contingent that is present on the territory of Ukraine is quite serious.
That is, it is already difficult for the Russians to manage more.
Of course, the enemy still has different carriers.

And it cannot be said that he will abandon the continuation of missile strikes on our infrastructure.
However, they need to rethink their actions 10 times before sending another plane to the waters of the Black and Azov seas.
In addition, there was quite successful work on the destruction of radar stations that targeted our country. That is why the use of aviation from the south of Ukraine has decreased somewhat recently," Yevlash said.

https://t.me/znua_live/145224

The Central Committee for BR stated that the Russian Federation needs to create mobile teams to destroy FPV crews of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

They will specialize in eliminating Ukrainian drone operators and the equipment they control, says Dmitry Kuzyakin, head of the Center for Integrated Unmanned Solutions.



MOSCOW, April 25. /TASS/. Russia needs to create mobile teams with special training and technical means to destroy FPV crews of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU). They will specialize in eliminating Ukrainian drone operators and the equipment they control, says Dmitry Kuzyakin, head of the Center for Integrated Unmanned Solutions (CCBR).

“FPV counteraction must be left to specialists. To do this, it is necessary to organize the work of several mobile groups of specialists who will come to the site and free the front, piece by piece, from the FPV crews of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. These will be people specially trained in the destruction of ground-based FPV equipment and FPV crews enemy. To do this, they need to be prepared and armed with both the necessary technical means and techniques. Today, Russia has both the first and the second,” Kuzyakin said in an interview with TASS.

The specialist emphasized that the creation of such teams is a matter of the near future. “It is stupid to demand that tank crews, attack aircraft, artillerymen and even specialists in the field of electronic warfare (EW) themselves be specialists in the field of FPV countermeasures. This is not their competence, not their job. I am convinced that ultimately these tasks will be dealt with by professionals. They will Special FPV countermeasures teams have been created, conducting targeted, systematic work to destroy enemy FPV crews,” noted the head of the Central Design Bureau.

Kuzyakin noted that currently the Ukrainian Armed Forces are massively using attack drones, and kamikaze drones cause a lot of inconvenience to the Russian side. "FPV systems are not only drones, but also ground equipment and people. Drones are in last place here, they are the visible part of the system, and everyone thinks that first of all it is necessary to deal with it. And this is a misconception. While we We are looking for a universal “electronic warfare pill”, we are wasting time. It is necessary to concentrate on much more important and vulnerable elements of the FPV system: people and ground equipment of the enemy,” said the head of the Central Design Bureau.

Kuzyakin called for initiating a process to conduct systematic work to identify and destroy Ukrainian FPV crews. “These are hundreds of drones that have not flown, as well as liberated areas on the line of combat contact, where you can safely prepare and conduct operations,” he added.

About CCBR

TsKBR is the base organization of the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology and the Central Aerohydrodynamic Institute named after. N. E. Zhukovsky. The organization is engaged in the development and production of FPV drones. The Central Design Bureau also analyzes the functionality and design features of captured equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, systematizing information about drones, manufacturers and supply systems of the enemy. The center is self-financing.

https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/20643661

April 24 Red Sea Update

At 11:51 a.m. (Sanaa time) on April 24, a coalition vessel successfully engaged one anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) launched from Iranian-backed Houthi terrorist-controlled areas in Yemen over the Gulf of Aden. The ASBM was likely targeting the MV… pic.twitter.com/MppinZTpTi

U.S. Central Command  (@CENTCOM) April 24, 2024

Statement by the Yemeni Armed Forces regarding the targeting of the American ship “MAERSK YORKTOWN” and an American warship destroyer in the Gulf of Aden and the targeting of the Israeli ship “MSC VERACRUZ” in the Indian Ocean - 04-24-2024 AD

???? ?????? ??????? ??????? ???? ??????? ????? "MAERSK YORKTOWN" ????????? ?????? ????? ??????? ?? ???? ??? ???????? ????? "MSC VERACRUZ" ??????????? ?? ?????? ?????? - 24-04-2024?pic.twitter.com/idMUVvCSTe

— ?????? ???? ???? (@army21ye) April 24, 2024

UKMTO DAILY SUMMARY

1600UTC 23 Apr 24 to 1600UTC 24 Apr 24https://t.co/DQ9L4E6Ddt#MaritimeSecurity #MarSec pic.twitter.com/0x23mjUaHq

— United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) (@UK_MTO) April 24, 2024

Very interesting. Hundreds and hundreds! I'm sure that Ukraine will get them piecemeal. As long as they don't violate the ROE the trickle will continue.

That's awesome. But why is it remotely driven?

Ambassador Antonov on the supply of ATACMS long-range missiles to Kyiv: this cannot be justified, because of this, the threat to the security of Crimea and new regions of Russia increases

https://t.me/rian_ru/242805



🇷🇺🇺🇸 Answer of the Russian Ambassador to the USA A.I. Antonov to a media question

❓: Dear Anatoly Ivanovich, how would you comment on the administration’s statement about ATACMS long-range missiles already delivered to Ukraine and Washington’s future plans in this regard?

A.I. Antonov: Local officials “retroactively” confirmed the fact of sending extremely dangerous weapons to Kyiv. An act organized on the sly cannot be justified. It is obvious that due to the transfer of ATACMS to the Zelensky regime, the threat to the security of Crimea, including Sevastopol, new Russian regions and other Russian cities, is increasing.

Particularly cynical are the assurances that the Ukrainian “clients” allegedly promised not to use missiles against targets on Russian territory. Who should be reassured by such a lie? How can one not notice the numerous terrorist attacks of Kyiv criminals? Deadly attacks on hospitals, schools, kindergartens, bridges and even our own military personnel? By the way, American publications, which are far from being in our favor, recognize the duplicity of the puppets and their attacks on Russian cities. Just look at today's coverage in Politico.

The Russian Armed Forces have already shot down several ATACMS missiles. It will continue to be so. Neither these missiles nor other weapons will be able to help defeat the Russian Federation.

👉 Are the local politicians not afraid of drowning in the quagmire of the conflict? Washington will not be able to get out of the terrible swamp that has absorbed the blood of ordinary soldiers.

https://t.me/EmbUSA/6503

But is it better for the obvious enemies to occupy Ukraine, S. Korea, Taiwan, etc. etc. and THEN we know they are serious and we fight? Sometime you must respond no matter how scared you are or how much you'd rather not spend the money.

Anyway, our national interest priorities are all fucked up because of the demmo-commies in the WH not because Ukraine, S. Korea, Taiwan, Israel, etc. want help surviving.

So, are we seriously supposed to get upset about Russia screwing up some French colonial BS in Africa?

I remember the last time we tried to save a French colony, it was Vietnam.

Drone drops wound two Russians, one of whom attempts to surrender to the drone

UA kamikazes hit Russian vehicles during an assault and personnel in trenches

Possible JDAMs hit Russian CP

UA video showing conditions during Avdiivka defense

Reported as failed Russian assault on Novomikhailivka.  Some footage has appeared separately.

“IMMORTAL REGIMENT MARCH” CANCELLED.  In case you aren’t familiar with it, this is the “public participation” aspect of Russia’s May 9th Victory Day Parade where descendants of Russian WW2 soldiers marched with pics of them.  Possibly an interesting tell about Russia’s domestic political situation in that the regime may not want to provide an opportunity for messaging outside the regime’s control.

Closeup of four Russians captured

Medvedchuk’s superyacht being auctioned off to support Ukraine

UA drone drop destroys Russian field ammo dump

Drone drop kills a possibly already-wounded Russian

Night kamikaze hits on Russian transport

Russian gets DOMED.

Night drone drop severely wounds a Russian in a trench

Kamikaze hit burns out abandoned Russian BMP-2

UA drone drops burn out Russian BMP-3 and T-80.  Possible thermite charge used.

Night.  Loaf death.

Russian Kamaz truck destroyed

UA drone spots Russian OP in the day, then night drone drops kill several.  Aftermath shots.  NSFW.

Series of drone drops on Russian infantry and positions.  One takes a Russian’s leg off.  VERY NSFW.

Reported as a migrant worker in Moscow pepper-sprayed and then attacked with a hammer.  “…whatsoever a man soweth, that shall he also reap.”

It's a little complicated. There are natural resources there and it may be unwise to let our enemies control. Also Russian shenanigans there can create a flood of migrants heading for the EU.

Russia vetoes UNSC draft resolution on WMD in outer space
By Xinhua


UNITED NATIONS - Russia on Wednesday vetoed a UN Security Council draft resolution on the deployment of weapons of mass destruction in outer space.

The draft resolution, tabled by the United States and Japan, won the support of 13 of the 15 members of the Security Council. Russia, which has veto power, voted against it. China abstained.

Before the vote, the Security Council rejected an amendment to the draft resolution proposed by Russia and China to include a ban on the deployment of all kinds of weapons in outer space.

Russia's permanent representative to the United Nations, Vassily Nebenzia, accused the United States and Japan of staging "a dirty spectacle" at the Security Council by tabling the draft resolution.

"At first glance, it looks harmless, it looks positive, because officially it is devoted to a topic that is of great importance to the international community -- that's the non-placement of WMDs in outer space.

Yet behind this fig leaf, there is a cunning plan that was concocted by our Western colleagues," he told the council before the vote.

Nebenzia explained that the ban on the placement of WMDs in outer space has already been enshrined in the Outer Space Treaty of 1967. The United States and Japan had the hidden motives of cherry-picking WMDs out of all other kinds of weapons in outer space.

By doing so, the United States and Japan could camouflage their lack of interest in outer space free from any weapons, he said.

Nebenzia read out the amendment jointly proposed by Russia and China, which calls on all states, particularly those with major space capabilities, to take urgent measures to prevent the placement of weapons in outer space and the threat or use of force in outer space; and to seek through negotiations the early elaboration of appropriate, reliably verifiable, legally binding multilateral agreements.

The Russian ambassador stressed that the draft amendment does not delete from the draft resolution the ban on the placement of WMDs in outer space. It simply adds the provision about the inadmissibility of weapons of any kind being placed in outer space.

The text of the proposed amendment is identical to an operative paragraph of a General Assembly resolution adopted in December 2023.

https://www.chinadailyhk.com/hk/article/581748



Statement from National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Russia’s Veto of the UN Security Council Resolution on the Outer Space Treaty

Today, Russia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution, proposed jointly by the United States and Japan, that would have reaffirmed the fundamental obligation of States Parties to the Outer Space Treaty not to place nuclear weapons in orbit around the Earth. The resolution also would have called on all Member States not to develop nuclear weapons specifically designed to be placed in orbit. Placement by a State Party of a nuclear weapon in orbit would not only violate the Outer Space Treaty, but would threaten the vital communications, scientific, meteorological, agricultural, commercial, and national security services that any and all satellites provide to societies around the globe. As we have noted previously, the United States assesses that Russia is developing a new satellite carrying a nuclear device. We have heard President Putin say publicly that Russia has no intention of deploying nuclear weapons in space. If that were the case, Russia would not have vetoed this resolution.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/04/24/statement-from-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivan-on-russias-veto-of-the-un-security-council-resolution-on-the-outer-space-treaty/

France runs on nuclear power.
Much of the supply of uranium to run their reactors comes from Niger.
Russia’s efforts in Niger are effectively an attack on France’s economy and an attempt to further leverage energy blackmail against Europe because France is able to supply surplus electricity to Europe.
It’s hard to say when France will act and under what circumstances.  However, their defense policy says they will:

Please add brazil, scotland, and turkey to that list.

\uD83D\uDEA8 @FDD_CMPP Visual updated: American Forces Under Attack by Iran and its Proxies

With new #Iran-backed attacks on U.S. forces this week, check out @Dropping_JDAUMs & @Brad_L_Bowman's dashboard on Iran's attacks and U.S. responses: https://t.co/Qh3YOvlmgf pic.twitter.com/rh0RaC3FG4

FDD  (@FDD) April 24, 2024

.@Deepstate_UA asses that Russian forces have seized a foothold in southeast Krasnohorivka and advanced into Soloviove. https://t.co/NE1qU9uJpp… https://t.co/aA8t3pXJmw https://t.co/oKvWba5o9Z pic.twitter.com/EJsv9h763M

Rob Lee  (@RALee85) April 24, 2024

North Korea leans on Russian ties to expand relations with Iran
Pyongyang officials visit Moscow-friendly nations in diplomatic blitz


SEOUL -- North Korea's minister for external economic relations is making a rare visit to Iran, part of Pyongyang's efforts to cultivate diplomatic relations by expanding on its ties with Moscow.

Yun Jong Ho left North Korea with a delegation on Tuesday, the North's official Korean Central News Agency said Wednesday.

North Korea and Iran both have close ties to Russia and are hostile toward the U.S. Since the pandemic, there have been no reports of a high-level North Korean official visiting Iran. The last significant visit was by the vice chairman of the Supreme People's Assembly in August 2019.

North Korea and Iran are believed to have been cooperating in missile technology since the 1980s, according to an analyst cited in South Korea's Yonhap News Agency, who added that Iran is reportedly ahead in solid-fuel technology and there is concern the sides are cooperating in such areas as hypersonic missiles.

Since the end of the pandemic, North Korea has been strengthening diplomatic relations with friendly countries, most notably with Russia.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Russia last year, with the two agreeing to work on military cooperation. Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui also visited the country this year. A delegation led by a high-ranking agricultural official traveled to Russia in February, followed by Yun in March.

Russia has reciprocated by dispatching high-level officials to North Korea. The head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergey Naryshkin, visited Pyongyang in March. A visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to North Korea appears to be in the works.

North Korea is also deepening ties with other countries that have strong relations with Moscow. This month, the deputy foreign minister from Belarus, which cooperates militarily with Russia, visited North Korea.

Yun's visit to Iran is seen as part of such diplomatic efforts by Pyongyang.

North Korea may also be aiming to use its relationship with Russia as leverage to deepen ties with China. In March, Kim Song Nam, a high-ranking official at the Workers' Party of Korea, visited China. And this month, he invited Zhao Leji, the third-ranking member of the Chinese Communist Party and chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, to Pyongyang.

North Korea's diplomatic flurry is extending to neutral countries as well. Vice Foreign Minister Pak Myong Ho visited Mongolia in March. Kim Song Nam also visited Vietnam and Laos.

As the U.S., South Korea, and Japan align on opposition to North Korea, Pyongyang has elevated its rhetoric. In a statement on Wednesday, Kim Yo Jong, deputy director of the Workers' Party of Korea and sister of Kim Jong Un, condemned joint defense drills among the three countries, saying the U.S. and its allies "face great danger."

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/N-Korea-at-crossroads/North-Korea-leans-on-Russian-ties-to-expand-relations-with-Iran

Sure, I get the strategic relevance to France. But what are they going to be able to do about it? Both the USA and France were effectively kicked out of Niger after all, meaning we aren't wanted there. It's part of the Russian/Chinese initiative to gain closer ties to the Global South, which is succeeding due to our inability to treat sovereign countries as such. Niger's complaint was us trying to dictate whom they can have diplomatic ties with...

I guess the CIA could always try and cook up another coup, but there would be more blowback from that no doubt. Sometimes it's best to know when you are not wanted.

Russian Twitter going after Milei


https://twitter.com/Sprinterfactory/status/1783009906016006466



Javier Milei responds to the massive march for public education: "Tears of left-handers"
The massive university march in support of free public university education brought together around half a million people, according to the University of Buenos Aires (UBA).


The president of Argentina, Javier Milei, published an acid message after the great university demonstration that took place last Tuesday: "Glorious day for the beginning of revelation. Whoever wants to hear (see) let him hear (see)... Long live fucking freedom." This is how he wrote, in addition to uploading the image of a lion — a symbol to represent himself — with a cup and the inscription "left-handed tears."

Previously, Vice President Victoria Villarruel took to her official profile on X (formerly Twitter) to question the speech of Taty Almeida, a member of the Mothers of Plaza de Mayo Founding Line. "Hebe, look what you've missed...," the official wrote.

This is Milei's first pronouncement after a long silence. During the day, students, university and non-university teachers' unions, along with other self-convened sectors, trade unions and politicians, protested under the slogan "In defense of public education".




The massive university march in Argentina

With books up, hundreds of thousands of individuals mobilized across Argentina on Tuesday to express their rejection of budget cuts to public universities. This has been the largest protest so far against the austerity policy of Liberal President Javier Milei.

According to police, 100,000 people gathered. While, according to the University of Buenos Aires (UBA), there were around half a million, in the Argentine capital. In addition, tens of thousands of people protested in inland cities, such as Cordoba, Rosario and Mar del Plata, in support of "free public university education."

In the country's major cities, students, graduates, and professors from the 57 state-run national universities mobilized in support of free public education.

Universities declared themselves in financial crisis after the government decided to maintain for this year the same budget they received in 2023, despite annual inflation that in March almost reached 290%.

"Don't expect a solution through public spending," Milei warned on a national network after the public accounts registered a surplus in the first quarter, at the cost of thousands of layoffs and the fall in economic activity and consumption.

Trade unions and opposition parties from across the political spectrum joined the call. In addition, university professors joined in a strike, private universities joined the demand, and many participated spontaneously.

Milei questioned transparency in the use of funds and the quality of education, suggesting that public universities "are used for shady business and indoctrination," he wrote on the X network over the weekend.

Some 2.2 million people study in the public university system, chosen by 80% of students, compared to private institutions, in a country where almost half of its 47 million people live in poverty.

The state higher education system has great academic prestige and has been the birthplace of Argentina's five Nobel laureates, three of them in the hard sciences, as well as world-renowned scientific and technological developments.

Last week, several UBA buildings had to ration the use of elevators, turn off lights in common areas, limit library hours, reduce hot water use and limit university extension programs, as part of emergency measures.

https://larepublica.pe/mundo/argentina/2024/04/24/javier-milei-responde-a-la-multitudinaria-marcha-por-la-educacion-publica-lagrimas-de-zurdos-2162808

If you’re serious about these questions, watch the Perun video you will find some answers.
What can they do about it?  France has the ability to project power into Africa which probably exceeds Russia’s.  They have a nuclear deterrent force and their doctrine says they are willing to use it.  Their defense policy demands they act to protect their interests in Africa.  If it ever comes to it, the FFL will wipe the floor with Wagner.
Not wanted by whom?  The government of Niger was just overthrown in a coup by a military man who then invited his friends the Russians in.  Wagner/Russia are paying off local strongmen for influence and providing muscle against their rivals.  There is a lot of info that doesn’t make the US news about what Wagner is doing, and guess what, they aren’t “liberators.”  This has happened across sahel Africa.  It is obviously meant to leverage their energy war against Europe.
Now, you can certainly point out France’s own colonial history in Africa and say that Russia is simply behaving as an Empire, using force (thus far successfully) to accomplish political ends.  That’s a perfectly legitimate argument.  However, it is a mistake to believe that France either can’t or won’t act.
Maybe France doesn’t have to act directly.  If regime change happens in Russia or their army collapses, the problem might solve itself, which may be what they’re waiting on.  If not, I strongly believe France will act.

Counter FPV screens and camouflage used by Russian soldiers for their dug outs. https://t.co/TPxnCvZQip pic.twitter.com/BmVTsdDEVw

Rob Lee  (@RALee85) April 24, 2024

🇺🇦 Akhmetov's Steel Front built more than 80 km of fortifications in the Donetsk region and Zaporizhzhia.

 ▪️The fortifications will provide additional protection to hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian citizens and soldiers.

 ▪️More than one hundred specialists from SCM companies worked on the fortifications, using 25 pieces of equipment: they carried out earthworks, supplied building materials, timber, water barriers and other materials.

 ▪️Steel "hideouts" were installed in the strongholds, the development of Metinvest, created to protect fighters from bombing.

\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 Akhmetov's Steel Front built more than 80 km of fortifications in the Donetsk region and Zaporizhzhia.

 ??The fortifications will provide additional protection to hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian citizens and soldiers.

 ??More than one hundred specialists from SCM… pic.twitter.com/SVY5iyTPnW

Jesse Pinkman  (@ictusconfirmed) April 24, 2024

\uD83C\uDDF7\uD83C\uDDFAMED SEA FLOTILLA\uD83C\uDDF7\uD83C\uDDFA
\uD83C\uDDF1\uD83C\uDDFELibyan Express has returned to naval piers in\uD83C\uDDF8\uD83C\uDDFETartus, as is almost the entire task force. Only vessels missing seem to be the Marshal Shaposhnikov & intelligence vessel Kildin. Varyag is in the anchorage.

Sentinel 2 (24 Apr 2024) caveats apply pic.twitter.com/wcv1Lpv8Pf

— MT Anderson (@MT_Anderson) April 24, 2024

That’s a nice little flotilla you got there…would be a shame if something were to happen to it.

Surrender Monkey? Niger is a sovereign state...

No one is calling the Russian's liberators here, relax. But it is telling when they have chosen to have closer ties with Wagner over our own military. You are not at all curious as to why? You really think it is just some unjust coup that is 100% illegitimate? It's happened in like 3 countries now and there is broad support for the Juntas in Niger.

It doesn't matter what you think, or what is true. It matters what Nigerians think. And they think we are strong arming them and that we do not share their traditional values, while the see Russia as offering cooperation with mutual respect. They are going to Russia because we have failed to offer them a meaningful alternative.

WHY exactly did the Nigerians pick Russia over the French and the West? What do the French really have to offer them? And why should the Nigerians go along with what they see as another corrupt puppet Government?

These are the questions the French should be asking before trying another failed intervention. And the questions we need to ask ourselves before offering any help to the French and repeating Vietnam all over again. You catch more flies with honey than with piss and vinegar.

???????. ?????. ???? 791. ?????????????
Briefly. War. Day 791. Video digest#stoprussia #???????? pic.twitter.com/BZWzGx3tQn

— ??????????? ???? ??? (@GeneralStaffUA) April 24, 2024

\uD83D\uDE42\uD83E\uDD19 pic.twitter.com/QQHsed4W2j

TOGA  (@TOGAjano21) April 24, 2024

??Active firing of two \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDF8American M1296 Stryker Dragoon armored personnel carriers with a 30mm Mk44 Bushmaster II gun. pic.twitter.com/76LM8ERfAp

— \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6Ukrainian Front (@front_ukrainian) April 24, 2024

Why Is Russia Losing The FPV Drone War?



Small drones, in particular FPV kamikazes, have become a key weapon in the war of attrition currently being waged in Ukraine. A NATO official recently told Foreign Policy magazine that FPVs caused more than two thirds of Russia’s tank losses in recent months, eclipsing artillery, guided missiles and other weapons. Both sides are now turning out vast quantities of FPVs, but recently Russia’s battlefield drone strikes have faltered while Ukraine’s have surged as never before. What is behind Russia’s failure?

A War Of Production

The FPV drone, a small racing quadcopter converted into a kamikaze, is a low-cost precision weapon capable of knocking out tanks and other targets from 20 km/ 12 miles away. They have proven equally effective against artillery, infantry positions and trucks. As 2023 wore on and thousands of FPVs were deployed both sides started to appreciate just how important this new weapon was becoming.

“I've said it a hundred times and I'll say it again now — If our state doesn't throw large resources into this industry [FPVs] now, the situation will worsen dramatically for our troops in a couple of months,” Ukrainian drone fundraiser warned last November.

On the Russian side, in December President Putin himself declared that “there is a need to significantly increase the production and supply of high-precision munitions and drones”

FPVs can be assembled from commercial components for less than $500 and Ukraine is sourcing them from dozens of small organizations including the startup Escadrone and non-profit Wild Hornets. A government initiative even encourages people to assemble FPV drones at home in their spare time, with more than ten thousand participants now signed up.

These diverse efforts seem to have paid off. Ukraine reportedly produced some 50,000 drones in December, and averaged more than 100,000 a month in January and February, well on the way to President Zelensky’s goal of a million drones in 2024.

Russia does things differently. While many small operations produce FPV drones including the Ghoul and the Joker, these are financed by donations without government assistance. In Russia production appears to be more centralized, and the Sudoplatov Group, a volunteer brigade turned drone-making startup now receives funding from the Russian Ministry of Defence to produce drones. In December, Sudoplatov claimed to be making 1,000 FPVs per day, a claim which was supported by imagery of their production process.

This is in line with other Russian drone efforts. They only have one official long-range drone, the Iranian-designed Shahed, now produced at a single factory in Alabuga, and one tactical attack drone, the Lancet made by Kalashnikov. By contrast, a variety of Ukrainian companies make at least 15 types of long-range drone and several types of Ukrolancet tactical drone.

Up until December, Russia appeared to be carrying out as many if not more FPV attacks than Ukraine though it was not clear who was ahead.

“Russian and Ukrainian commentators and bloggers note often that the adversary has more drones and can better operate them,” says Samuel Bendett, an expert Russian drones and adviser to both the CNA and CNAS.

Soviet-style centralization can bring economies of scale. But the Soviet system had some huge disadvantages too, and these may lie behind the dramatic fall off in the effectiveness of their FPV effort.

Decline And Fail

This week OSINT analyst Daniele published a detailed report on FPV strikes by both sides up to the end of March.

“December 2023…marked a turning point for the usage of FPV drones in infantry operations. Since then, Ukrainian forces have continued to conduct more strikes than their Russian counterparts. The highest level of usage thus far for Russia has occurred in January 2024, with a steady decline observed thereafter,” states the report.

The report notes an increasing gap between the numbers after December, with Ukraine’s lead increasing month by month. Ukraine’s increased FPV production is producing visible results on the battlefield in terms of burning Russian vehicles and infantry casualties. Russia is not advancing at the same rate.

Russian site Lostarmor, which logs FPV strikes against Ukrainian forces, notes 605 successful attacks in December, 887 in February plummeting to just 227 in March.

It has been argued that the reason why more Russian vehicles are destroyed is because they are on the offensive and present more targets. But FPVs are now so abundant that they target individual footsoldiers and again Ukraine is far ahead.

OSINT analyst Andrew Perpetua, whose personal mission is to log and record every single attack notes: “In our stats, averaged over the past few months, we’ve counted an average of 45 drone attacks on Russian infantry per day, and 12 on Ukrainian per day.”

On average, each antipersonnel FPV attack causes on one casualty. And the numbers are rising.

Losing The Jamming War

Bendett suggests that Russian efforts may not be paying off due to the increased effectiveness of Ukrainian electronic countermeasures against FPVs. This certainly seems to be a major factor. For example the Ukrainian UNITED24 effort recent suppled 2,000 tactical jammers to the front, while Russian jammers have proven less effective.

How is it that Ukrainian jammers are stopping Russian FPVs while the same effort by the Russians is failing to protect them? The one message that I hear consistently from everyone involved in electronic warfare in Ukraine is that it is a cat-and-mouse game: jammers are constantly being updated and upgraded, and drone communications need to be updated every few months to stay ahead. Anything which cannot keep up – like the Skydio drones supplied by the U.S. – quickly becomes toast.

The Russian FPVs are not keeping up.

WarTranslated quotes a Russian journalist writing in March that Sudoplatov’s drones initially looked good but : “The drones turned out to be of poor quality, plus the enemy released separate electronic warfare for them … the drones began to turn over on approach.”

He notes that the two Abrams tanks destroyed by FPVs were hit by Ghoul and Piranha varieties from small suppliers, not by the far more numerous Sudoplatov VTVanguard Total World Stock ETF 0.0%-40s which “fell when used.”

Such reports are rare because any criticism of the armed forces or giving ‘false information’ – that is, contradicting the official narrative — is punishable with a prison sentence under a 2022 law against ‘discrediting Russian armed forces.’

Another WarTranslated source, a military instructor, made similar points in a post last week, noting that in the Bakhmut region “Sudoplatov drones still operate at the same frequency specified by the manufacturer, and the enemy successfully puts them down.” (My emphasis)

He says the drones only work when there is a pause in the jamming, and the usual pattern is that the first drone gets through and those following it all fail. He also notes poor build quality, with a third of drones failing to take off and many of the rest not reaching the target.

“By saturating the active army with attack drones from the Sudoplatov project, one can throw dust in the eyes of the top military-political leadership, but in fact, the effectiveness of these drones dropped sharply last fall due to the enemy's fairly rapid adaptation to the fixed frequency set by the manufacturer, and continues to remain very low,” writes the instructor . (My emphasis).

Ukrainian jamming is bad enough, but Russian FPV operators have another problem: their own jammers.

Faced by constant attacks by Ukrainian FPVs, the Russian defenders are cautious about turning off their jamming defenses. This has unfortunate consequences for their drone operators. Newsweek quotes Svyatoslav Golikov, a prominent Russian commentator noting "a total lack of interaction between [Russian] FPV groups and electronic warfare units” on the Avdiivka front, with the Result that many FPVs are “suppressed by our own electronic warfare."

As Bendett notes, this situation is aggravated by “direct orders to front-line soldiers prohibiting them from reporting problems to those arriving from higher command bodies.” Bad news must be covered up.

All this starts to look like karma at work. A corrupt and autocratic system is the victim of its own corruption, as yet again Russian cash is siphoned off by a contractor without providing a weapon system that works, while potentially more capable competitors who did not make the right friends are starved of funds.

Meanwhile Ukraine has its own issues with corruption in military procurement, but seems far more efficient at rooting it out. In Ukraine a thriving culture of free-enterprise innovation has produced a diverse drone ecosystem with healthy competition. This difference is likely why they are moving steadily ahead in the small drone arms race.

FPVs will not win the war on their own. But Ukraine can build FPVs faster than Russia can build vehicles and they are steadily eating away at Russian forces. As their numbers rise to millions, that effect will only increase. A million drones, averaging one casualty per FPV, will surely have an effect.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2024/04/24/why-is-russia-losing-the-fpv-drone-war/

Russian forces are conducting regular CUAS training involving small drones ramming adversarial UAVs - in this case, "Bekas" FPV attacking a fixed-wing drone. https://t.co/Jbvi9GVWJp https://t.co/6pXFdxzno4 pic.twitter.com/aPxOIzyti9

Samuel Bendett  (@sambendett) April 24, 2024

Another instance of drone on drone combat, with a Russian quadcopter attempting to crash Ukraine’s heavy drone at Robotyne and Verbove. https://t.co/tRTsGe5kSX https://t.co/55ra4fpmeT pic.twitter.com/rPDyFv1FbV

Samuel Bendett  (@sambendett) April 18, 2024

More aerial drone combat near Chasiv Yar: Russia's Mavic 3 identified Ukraine's heavy Baba Yaga multirotor drone and rammed it. https://t.co/qWMfVCCUij pic.twitter.com/5iwf89bdwf

Samuel Bendett  (@sambendett) April 13, 2024

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Chronicle of a special military operation
for April 24, 2024



Russian troops launched a series of attacks on enemy targets in the so-called territory. Ukraine: hits also hit the area of ​​a military unit in Odessa and an ammunition depot in Dobropolye on the occupied territory of the DPR.

Ukrainian formations once again launched drones into Russian rear regions. Four drones were intercepted on approach to Voronezh, another one fell in the industrial zone of Lipetsk. Two oil depots in the Smolensk region also came under fire.

In the Avdeevsky direction, fierce fighting continues in Ocheretino, where the main clashes took place in the northern part of the village, as well as on the outskirts of the Altkom plant. There are also reports of the liberation of Novobakhmutovka and the retreat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to Solovyevo.

In the Donetsk direction, Russian units are storming the enemy’s defensive lines on the Pervomaiskoye-Nevelskoye line. And in the forest belts northeast of Netailovo, Russian Armed Forces servicemen somewhat expanded the zone of control.

Further south, Russian troops have increased the intensity of attacks on Ukrainian Armed Forces positions in Krasnogorovka, including in the area of ​​the refractory plant. Fire support for units of the Russian Armed Forces is provided by both artillery and aviation.

https://t.me/rybar/59477



#Summary for the morning of April 25, 2024

▪️Strikes against enemy rear targets continued throughout the day. In Odessa, explosions were heard in the area of ​​a military unit near the Gorbaty Bridge; arrivals were recorded in Nikolaev, Sumy, Dnepropetrovsk and the Kharkov region. In the morning, the enemy announced a missile attack on the town of Smela in the Cherkasy region.

▪️In the Kherson direction, fighting is in the same areas; there are no significant changes in the situation. Serious problems with discipline were reported in one of the military units, which led to tragic consequences.

▪️The Zaporozhye Front reported heavy fighting in Rabotino; the Russian Armed Forces, with the support of armored vehicles, are attacking enemy positions. There are also battles northwest of Verbovoy, our artillery and aviation are working.

▪️In the South Donetsk direction, our units are advancing in Georgievka, but the most intense fighting took place in Krasnogorovka: the Russian Armed Forces are advancing towards the fireproof plant with the support of armored vehicles, aviation and artillery.

▪️North-west of Avdeevka, our troops planted a flag in Novobakhmutovka and are making their way to the settlement. Solovevo. In Ocheretino there are battles in the north of the village, there are many enemy FPB drones in the air. In the indicated area, it was reported that exhausted Ukrainian units abandoned a number of positions under pressure from our troops, but the fighting continues.

▪️News are coming from the direction to Chasov Yar about heavy, high-intensity battles, but there are no significant changes in the line of combat contact.

▪️The Ukrainian Armed Forces’ strikes against the civilian population of the Belgorod region do not stop. Yesterday, regional authorities, summing up the results for the day, reported four civilian casualties in the city of Shebekino.

▪️In the Kursk region, the Nazis shelled the village of Obukhovka in the Korenevsky district, the Oleshnya farm in the Sudzhansky district, the village of Elizavetovka and the Otruba farm in the Glushkovsky district. The long-suffering Tetkino is under attack; a Ukrainian UAV was also neutralized there; a Ukrainian UAV was neutralized near the village of Kurilovka, Sudzhansky district; a drone was also planted and eliminated on the spot.

▪️Donetsk was hit by NATO 155mm artillery, two civilians were wounded.

The summary was compiled by: Two majors

https://t.me/dva_majors/40840




Observations from the front line.
Orekhovsky direction of the Zaporozhye Front

The day passed relatively calmly. There was sluggish, harassing shooting from the enemy. On our part, work was carried out on explored targets.

There is a stable and tense situation in the air; there are many reports about the operation of enemy aircraft- and copter-type UAVs, FPV-kamikazes and drones with drops. In the evening we observed the exit of an enemy MLRS along Tokmak, we also observed a contrail, the installation itself is not visible due to its range. Optical-electronic means of artillery reconnaissance and counter-battery warfare are urgently needed.

Mobile and stationary modules with large-caliber machine guns with thermal imaging optics are also needed to combat swarms of enemy night attack drones. The sky is still completely behind them, which extremely complicates the rotation of personnel and forces them to pull military equipment and weapons away from the LBS.

In general, the situation is moderately tense. The war is a positional war.

#ZaporozhyeFront
#RoyalWolves

https://t.me/rogozin_do/5716

??\uD83C\uDDF7\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 Avdiivka direction: Russian Armed Forces assault groups took control of the village of Novobakhmutivka south of Ocheretyne last night. pic.twitter.com/2vSW2HIK3v

— Rybar Force (@rybar_force) April 25, 2024

I know why.  Like I said, there is already a lot of info out there about what’s happening and it’s been discussed before.  Wagner offers muscle in ways the west is generally not willing to.  As in, go into a rebellious town and shoot 500 people.  Wagner keeps the regime safe and in power and in return they get exclusive access to their resources while denying them to the west.  It’s that simple.  Oh, and there’s no backing out of the arrangement.
It’s completely fair to say that sahel Africa was a mess prior to Wagner and that the former colonial power (France) isn’t exactly beloved.  The UN and France has had at best limited success dealing with it.  Add on top of that the instability and “transactional nature” of much of the African power structure - i.e. there’s always the element of African leaders encouraging a “bidding war” for their loyalty.  So the Africans are playing a game too, and I’m not trying to say that the Sahel was rainbows and unicorns and Wagner spoiled it.
It’s also fair to evaluate Russian actions as naked colonialism (with anti-colonialist rhetoric) in the mold that France itself practiced until about 50-75 years ago.
However, my real point is not that “Wagner is mean,” it’s that Wagner/Russia has overstepped.  The smart play for Wagner was to stop before Niger.  That would have improved their position significantly without encroaching on France’s critical national interests, giving France far less reason to take action.  That way you maintain leverage and a threat.
But they overstepped into critical French interests in an effort to leverage their energy war on Europe, giving France every reason to act against them.  This was a foolish move.  I have no doubt that direct or indirect action will happen when the time is right. You can even interpret (correctly, IMO)  Macron’s newly-hawkish policy toward Russia as an element of indirect action.
There are also as-yet unverified reports that the Ukrainians are working directly with the French in Africa laying some groundwork.

Here’s some links for you.  And there is far more out there.

Recent BBC article.  Russian uses anti-colonialist rhetoric while implementing their own colonialist policy.

Wagner controls CAR through fear, violence, rape, and mass-murder.

US report on Wagner in Africa including lots of hotlinks for you to follow.

Article capturing the overall messiness of the general situation in sahel Africa.

At the expense of the 🇺🇦 115th brigade, around which there is now a noise about the failure in the Ocheretino area, in the Avdiyiv direction. Indeed, such mistakes will cost us dearly, but I will note that similar situations are systematic in this brigade, according to our comrades, this is already the third time when this brigade fails in a similar way in different directions of the front.

But, but, but you shouldn't blame ordinary guys, on whose shoulders the main burden of trench life fell, I know from my own experience that there is no unit where only morons were gathered, there are moron commanders who cannot organize the service. I don't know how many there are 200, but I know that many guys were captured due to poor communication (((

In general, I am not a fan of saying that some brigade is bad and another is good, "every frog praised its own swamp", everyone has failures and successes and they are different for everyone, but in 115 such cases, they are systematic, let the appropriate authorities conduct investigations into these commanders.

https://t.me/officer_alex33/2664

Russians have sharply increased tariffs for travel on toll roads

The state-owned company Avtodor has sharply raised tariffs for toll roads “due to the inflationary process.” The new prices began to apply on April 23, according to the company’s message. The price for travel for passenger cars has increased the most on sections of the M-3 highway in the Kaluga region (km 124–194) - up to 250 rubles. per kilometer traveled on a weekday, or by 25%, Kommersant calculated. On weekends the price will increase by 10% - up to 320 rubles.

On the busiest M-4 Don highway, fares increased by 6–20% depending on the section. Thus, on the section 21–93 km (Moscow region), the fee increased from 230 to 250 rubles. on weekdays, on the section 93–211 km (Moscow and Tula regions) - from 330 to 350 rubles. On the Voronezh bypass, indexation was 20% (up to 120 rubles), on the Far Western Bypass of Krasnodar - by 16.7% (up to 350 rubles). The route from Moscow to Krasnodar along the entire route will now cost 3.6–4.7 thousand rubles. for the owner of a passenger car, depending on the day of the week and the use of the transponder.

On the Central Ring Road, prices increased evenly, by an average of 14–15% in all sections. On M-1, the tariff on the only toll section increased by 13.3% - to 170 rubles. On M-11 from Solnechnogorsk to Tver the price increased by 12.5% ​​(up to 450 rubles on weekdays), from Klin to Tver - by 20% (up to 300 rubles on weekdays).

https://t.me/moscowtimes_ru/21731



The Academy of Sciences predicted a population reduction of 10 million people in Russia over 25 years.

Vladimir Putin's calls to give birth to as many children as possible are useless. Even if the Russians follow them, it will not help stop the natural population decline; only migration can help.

Experts from the Institute of National Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences came to this conclusion. Even with positive trends in the dynamics of fertility and mortality, a natural population decline is inevitable in the coming years, they warn in the report “Russia 2035 - to a new quality of the economy.” The size of the country’s population depends not only on the birth rate, mortality and migration, but also on the existing gender and age structure of the population, scientists explain. It is impossible to influence it, and it outweighs other factors.

According to calculations by the Russian Academy of Sciences, the population of Russia will decrease from the current 146.2 million people (at the beginning of 2024) to 142 million in 2035 and 136 million people in 2050. The authors of the forecast call this scenario “quite optimistic” in all assumptions: and the birth rate, and the death rate, and migration growth. “But in the end, its implementation still leads to depopulation,” they state. And not just to depopulation, but to a rollback of almost 80 years: the projected 136 million inhabitants of Russia will be the minimum since the 1970s.

https://t.me/moscowtimes_ru/21748



The government warned about the threat of a jump in the dollar to 120 rubles

Strengthening Western sanctions and falling oil prices will stop the growth of the Russian economy and lead to a collapse in the ruble exchange rate. This is the stress scenario of the macro forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, which the government considered at its meeting on Tuesday.

In the base case, which is calculated based on oil at $65, the Ministry of Economic Development expects Russian GDP to grow by 2.3% next year, by the same amount in a year and by 2.4% in 2027. At the same time, the ruble is gradually weakening - to 98.6 rubles in 2025, 101.2 rubles in 2026 and 103.8 rubles in 2027.

The stress scenario of the Ministry of Economic Development envisages a fall in prices for Russian oil to $51.8 per barrel next year, and then to $45 in 2027.

In such conditions, the ruble will collapse to 106.9 rubles per dollar in 2025, 115.1 rubles in 2026, and in 2027 it will collapse to the minimums shown in the first weeks of the war with Ukraine: 120.1 rubles per dollar.

Cheap oil will cost Russia about $100 billion in export revenues annually, according to estimates from the Ministry of Economic Development: in the stress scenario, the sale of goods abroad next year will bring only $365.7 billion, compared to $455.7 billion in the base scenario and $424 billion last year.

As a result, the growth of the Russian economy, which Rosstat estimated at 3.6% at the end of last year, will slow down to 1.5% in 2024, and will practically stop in 2025: GDP will increase by only 0.2%.

https://t.me/moscowtimes_ru/21758

Six suspected spies were arrested in Germany within six days. Officials mark this as a success but predict espionage activities by Russia and China will only intensify. And a further two in the UK active for China pic.twitter.com/G77bzc2dDV

Ava  (@avaltd) April 24, 2024

Israel has prepared thousands of tents in central Gaza for the civilian population that will be evacuated out of Rafah ahead of the Israeli ground offensive against the Hamas terrorists holding the city pic.twitter.com/qLL8Az8fIj

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) April 24, 2024

Press coverage:
Our correspondent: Journalist Muhammad Bassam Al-Jamal succumbed to his wounds sustained as a result of the bombing of his house in the Al-Geneina neighborhood, east of Rafah, last night, bringing the death toll to 6.
https://twitter.com/qudsn/status/1783371562613166241


Security cabinet to meet on Rafah, hostages

Russian BUK eats a bowl of Tungstenberries

Two Russians take a direct kamikaze hit, the third quickly loots them and splits.

Poland looking at measures to send fighting-age Ukrainians home

Kamikaze annihilates Russian in a trench

Series of kamikaze strikes on Russian positions and vehicles.

Kamikaze briefly chases three Russians around.  No spotter.

Several kamikaze strikes on a small Russian armored attack.  No spotter.

36th Marine Drones

Russian checkpoints, fortifications and bases were targetted by the 36th Separate Marine Brigade on the left bank. pic.twitter.com/6ZRG1x1laf

— NOELREPORTS \uD83C\uDDEA\uD83C\uDDFA \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@NOELreports) April 25, 2024

https://twitter.com/GeneralStaffUA/status/1783376400302432679

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Drone on drone violence released by Russia

Nice.

They seem to be putting special effort into that.

More air to air combat. https://t.co/j56qywHK7F pic.twitter.com/tnVTGkC2dM

Andrew Perpetua  (@AndrewPerpetua) April 24, 2024

A fire broke out in the Naftovyki industrial zone in Omsk, Russia. The fire is 500m² and spreading. Three oil containers have already caught fire. pic.twitter.com/pdIGYDP3zF

— NOELREPORTS \uD83C\uDDEA\uD83C\uDDFA \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@NOELreports) April 25, 2024

Russian media
https://www.om1.ru/news/incident/345344-v_omskikh_neftjanikakh_krupnyjj_pozhar/

More Russian blyatmobile's appearing in the streets of occupied Donetsk. pic.twitter.com/n6hQTSEjdB

— NOELREPORTS \uD83C\uDDEA\uD83C\uDDFA \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@NOELreports) April 25, 2024

The NORKS where are the NORKS?

Report - events within Iran’s nuclear program are starting to raise serious questions.  Enrichment has tripled, access has been curtailed.  Suggestion that they could have enough for a bomb “within weeks.”

Iran started ramping up in November 2023