User Panel
Posted: 1/1/2005 8:04:30 PM EDT
This is just a head's up to everyone that indications are that we are about to enter an extended period where supplies of our favorite ammo is going to be low or non-existant. What I'm talking about here is specifically M193 and M855-spec ammo:
- Federal XM193 & XM855 - Winchester Q3131A - IMI M193 and M855 You may already know that IMI has been in short supply for a while, and more recently, the Winchester (made by IMI) has also ran dry. And now, Federal has temporarily discontinued the boxed XM193. Currently, the only ammo commonly available are the loose-packed XM193PD and XM855PD. As you may already know from this thread, this ammo is bulk-packed, and is definitely not 1st-tier ammo. It is, in fact, QC rejects, and unlike previous boxed XM193, much of the "PD" ammo has problems more serious than just lack of sealant. Why is this happening? Simple: the War On Terror. Ammo demands have continued to climb, especially in Iraq, but also due to a much higher training tempo here at home, and the US military's only ammo plant, Lake City, has not been able to keep up. As a result, the military has been buying additional ammo from IMI as well as using ammo from the strategic reserves (i.e., storage). It's clear that we can't keep using up all the reserve ammo, so more pressure has been put on Lake City (i.e., Federal/ATK) to maximize their military-usable ammo. Even so, the military is still buying lots of ammo from IMI, who is also supplying ammo to many other countries in the region who are involved in the WoT. The result is that IMI has suspended its contract to supply ammo to Winchester, and of course, they have not exported any 5.56 ammo for some time. And now Federal is using 100% of Lake City's capacity for the war. If we see any ammo from LC, it's likely to be more of the "PD" ammo, meaning stuff that was too bad to be used by the military. I expect we'll see more XM855PD instead of XM193PD going forward, given that M855 is made in significantly higher volume. Certainly, commercial ammo will continue to be available as always, but it isn't going to be loaded to military pressures/velocities, and it won't be crimped or sealed. And it's more expensive. Why am I posting this? Simple: to make sure everyone knows what the situation is, so they can plan accordingly. Understand that things could change (for better or worse) at any time, but as of now, the ammo situation looks pretty gloomy for 2005. -Troy P.S., please don't ask "where can I get some XXX ammo" or "what's the altenative ammo choice?" in this thread. There are plenty of other threads on those subjects already, or you can start one of your own. |
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Thanks for the heads up.
At least this ammo shortage has a good reason behind it, and not something stupid / pointless like import laws. |
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News like this makes me glad that I stocked up over the last two years. I have almost 6000 rounds of XM193, most of it on strippers. Guess I'll be looking for a decently loaded practice ammunition so I don't have to shoot my good stuff.
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I recently purchased a case of Federal American Eagle. The headstamp was mixed LC 02, 03, and 04.
The quality of this ammo is very good. How will this affect the American Eagle brand? |
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No way to know for sure, but I'd guess that you'll see American Eagle revert back to the crappy Federal .223 brass instead of the excellent Lake City military brass.
-Troy |
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If/when I get my shrike I was planning on blowing through that amount the first weekend. Guess I'll have to lower the amount or yikes.... try out wolf. Please don't let VA-gunnut see this. Thanks for the headsup Troy. |
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You could probably make a decent profit by selling your stocks to the government!
I really don't shoot all that often, and I roll my own. I have so little factory ammo around here that most of you would look at me funny. But that's OK because the way I figure it, what I'm throwing at 3200 FPS is going to sting a little no matter what its specific bullet type is. If I should have to shoot something with a pulse, I'll give it the whole mag if I have to. I'm almost surprised that the .gov hasn't been handing out small contracts to every licensed ammo loader in the nation for ammo...for practicing, anyway. It seems that it would be a reasonable option. CJ |
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Regarding cheap practice loads.... I'm sure most of you by now realize that Military 5.56 brass is tough to get from people like Scharch Manufacturing who have really done a great job in providing re-processed (cleaned, primer pockets swaged, trimmed and full length sized) Mil. brass to the public. I talked to them the other day, and it's pretty grim. So grim in fact that they have all but gotten out of the Mil. Re-process business, and started there own "New Brass" manufacturing. It appears that the Gov't is either shreading or melting the used 5.56 brass versus selling it to private contractors. I'm sure Troy or others of you know more about this policy than I do, but clearly it sucks! I used to use the "3 shots and you're out" rule for reloading my 5.56mm brass. I am now going to shoot it 3 times and trim/ de-burr it and shoot it again 3 time for a total of 6 shots. I may run into loose primer pockets by shooting it this much, but it's better than running out before I die, which should be in about 30 more years. I too am glad I have invested in my "Sealed Ammo Cans" for any SHTF activities. Tack |
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I've been shooting a lot of Winchester USA223R1VP, which I understood to NOT be the IMI made stuff. How might the shortage affect this?
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From September: ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=3&f=16&t=203521
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It should still be around, but since a lot more demand will be shifted to the commercial .223 ammo (such as the load you describe), prices will likely rise and/or availability will be reduced. Let me give you some made-up numbers to illustrate. Let's say that in a normal year, Federal and Winchester each sell 5 million rounds of their M193 load each year, and that IMI adds another 2 million. That's 12 million rounds, with a total of 7 million being made by IMI. In addition, Winchester sells half a million domestically-made "white-box" .223 loads, as do Remington and Federal. The domestic made stuff is much lower volume because high-volume shooters tend to buy by the case, and tend to prefer true M193-spec ammo over the ligher .223 loads. Further, domestic production can't be increased significantly, because production time on the loading machines is calculated long in advance, and the same machines still have to produce all the other loads that are normally sold. So, now, with 12 million rounds off the market, you've got 13.5 million rounds worth of demand chasing 1.5 million rounds of ammo. Actually, let's adjust that. We'll say that half of those 12 million rounds of missing ammo are made up by an increase in Russian ammo sales (I doubt they can increase production that much, but let's just assume). Now, you have 7.5 million rounds worth of demand chasing 1.5 million actual rounds. What do you imagine that's going to do to the supply/demand equation? I'd say that the availability of domestic .223 is going to be reduced, and we may well see across-the-board price increases until supply can again meet the demand. The worst part is that, due to the UN's "Small Arms Proliferation" treaty, the sources for a lot of good imported surplus is now gone, due to local interpretations of how to comply with that treaty. It doesn't look good. -Troy |
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I just called the local BassPro and had them place their last 10 boxes of Q3131a aside for me. I think this is the same 10 boxes that has been sitting on their shelf for about the last 2 weeks or so.
They also told me that what is on the shelf is all they have. |
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Thanks for the heads up, Troy. Just ordered another 1000 rds of XM193 (boxed) "just in case". Maybe before this is all over with I might have to break out a case of C77...
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Delta 9, I ordered five boxes from their last night. I guess there was 15 before you called. Dang, I should've ordered more. My next round of choice is black hills blue box 52 bthp. Hopefully they won't run out. Plus, please don't flame me, but I believe it'd work in a pinch.
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This was a local store, not the main mail order place. And when I got there they only had 7 boxes, so I guess the guy was mistaken on how many they had. At least I got those 7. This was the new BassPro in Harrisburg, PA. |
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I was going to ask this in a new thread, but this looks like a good place:
I was under the impression that the military had switched to M855 some time back. Why is M193 in short supply? Are we still issuing both? From what I've read, it looks like our troops would be better served with 55gr ammo, but I thought the heavier stuff was all they could get. Anybody know the straight poop on this? |
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Yea, I am also wondering why m193 is scarce, maybe troops train with it but use m855 for combat?
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Could it be there's still some Guard/Reserve units issued A1s, combined with M855 constituting the majority of production? |
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My guess would be that the brass, primers, etc. are going into M855 production. |
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My guess is that both types are made on the same equipment, and that equipment capacity is now being used exclusively for M855 production for the military. |
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UN: What a bunch of bastages! |
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Well with the shortge going on as it is getting tough to even find FAE or UMC even maybe the black rifle makers will start dropping the price on these rifles,As i was at several dealers this week and saw several sales go sour as when they wanted to buy the rifle and the dealers told them they had no ammo to sell them and didnt know when they would get any,Well the guys would not drop down $800-$1000 for a riflehock.gif
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Hey Troy, any information on this? (You seem to have good sources.) |
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I really hate to respond to one of these self-fulfilling prophecies......but...... I went out this morning and cleaned out the local Walmart of the 11 (40 round) boxes of Q34131A. Next stop was my friendly local FFL. He's been out of LC XM193 for months. He did have Wolf and Federal American Eagle. I've previously decided against Wolf because of a bad experience with Wolf polymer in a pistol caliber so I got a 500 round case of the American Eagle. This puts me over 2000 total rounds of .223 blasting ammo. Based on how often and how much I shoot the Bushy, this should last me close to a year and if there really is a long term shortage, I can make it last a lot longer.
I do have a set of reloading dies and some components for reloading (including a bucket of once fired brass). Maybe the shortage will prompt me to try reloading 223. Alan |
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Looks like we'll be going on a (exclusive) Wolf diet around the Gloftoe household. No big deal really. The guns eat it up. Of course, I'm sitting on a stash of good ammo. I just won't shoot IT up.
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Yes, both ammo types are still produced, as there are STILL National Guard and Air Force Reserve folks using M16A1s and similar-era carbines, with 1:12 twists. But the standard is M855 and 1:7-twist barrels, which makes up the bulk of what is produced and shot. Lake City makes 40-50 times more M855 than M193. The reason M193 will be in short supply is because those same machines are used to make M855 (bullets are manufactured separately, so that's not an issue), and those machines are running flat out to keep up with war demand, so there will no longer be any "free time" to make XM193 for us. -Troy |
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O.K. that sound reasonable. But no .223 around is ridiculous. Is Black Hills not making ammo anymore???? Is UMC gone??? I don't usually buy american eagle but gander mountain usually has a bunch of it. Let alone the other white box. If you ask me, black hills is your other best bet and if you want a fighting bullet, use a bthp or a soft point or something. I know that m193 is supposed to be way better but I don't see .223 just drying up completely. Saying people aren't going to buy ar's because they can't buy m193 is like saying people aren't going to buy cars if they got rid of 93 octane gas. In my humble opinion.
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I never, ever suggested that there would not be any .223 ammo. Please read more carefully. I'm saying that, in the near future, supplies of M193 and M855-spec ammo will be very low and likely very expensive, and that will drive up the price (and lower availability) of the more desirable "other-than-M193/M855" loads as well.
The point of the warning is so that people don't shoot all of their good ammo up, thinking that they'll be able to get more just as easily as they have been able to recently, and so that people who don't already have enough know to hurry up and buy what they need. -Troy |
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Crap, I just orderd a case of 193 from ammo man for not much less than I was buying TUBS of SA from sportsmans guide a couple years ago. Without causing too much thread drift what the chance of some SA showing up again? Do they still make it?
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I'm sorry, I didn't mean it to sound like YOU suggested ALL the .223 ammo was drying up. There we're a couple posts that made it seem like it. Like moshooter said guys weren't buying ar's because they couldn't buy ammo (I'm assuming 5.56) with them right away at a gun show. Seems silly.
So I do thank you for the heads up. I just got 100 rounds of Q last night and I'm going to put in an order for another 100 or 200 if they still have it. I'll probably just keep buying it in smaller quantities until they tell me it's out. I'm on a budget. |
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Iit is at gun shows and gun shops as a man wants ammo to gun with his new gun purchase but when all he is offered is Wolf they most of the time say no,As the dealer tells them they cant even get FAE-UMC-Winchester of any kind as it is bought up over the internet to fast and the Distributors are having a very hard time getting any,Not just XM-193 or Q3131 or any other military round i mean even just plain old $3.50 a box FAE - UMC or Winchester so yes they are not selling alot of ARs as most guys say hell with it just give me a cheap Romanian AK and 1000 rnds of Wolf for that junker and we will just wait,
But if you look at what is gonna happen the AR will go down hill and Ammo will dry up as the War overseas is suppose to be atleast a 15 year war and it is only going on its 4th year. |
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Wow that 'paragraph' just gave my brain an aneurysm. |
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If you can't get umc, the other white box, black hills, american eagle, and numerous other brands and types, you've got problems because you're not even looking. I'm still getting m193 and that's what they're talking about when they say it's drying up. 5.56 military spec ammo. Not run of the mill, commerciall .223. If guys selling guns are saying you can't get ammo, they're what I said, being silly. In my opinion. Now if it all goes away real quick, I'll stand corrected but that is definitely not the case right now.
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+1 i gave up halfway. like stated above, if you cant find other 5.56/.223 ammo than maybe you shouldnt own an ar there ar numerous of other brand ammo out there to not have to worry about shortages. the only problem is trying to get what the milatary uses and even then i havent seen any real crisis |
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What i need to own a AR in order to get .223 ammo?Your a tool as i got other rifles in this caliber as well for Predator shooting,But you guys just go over board thinking if you dont have what the military uses in there weapons you wont be able to save the US from and invasionhock.gif
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Looks like I need to ramp up production of my 69gr match reloads. 21cents a round, thereabouts. I got plenty of time to load this winter...
I'm sooo glad I have decent stocks in reserve, but this makes me want to sit on my .223 LC ammo, while I find an acceptable practice load. Reloading is starting to look more attractive again. |
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One of my favorite Iowa dealers has 500 rd cases of Federal XM193 for $90 out the door. I picked up 2-500 round cases this weekend at the local gunshow. It was lot 69 and headstamped 2004. He will be at the show tommorrow and next week, at the farigrounds. He still has several cases left and told me that there has not been a run on this ammo(for him). BTW, he is B&B Enterprise(from Waterloo).
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$90??? 25x20 nets you $129 here in Illinois... $109 in bulk...
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Actually moshooter, we're saying just the opposite of that, but the whole conversation is going right over your head. There's no reason to call him a tool if you don't understand the point. And I'll spell it out real clear for you and after that I'm done. There's plenty of ammo of the .223 variety. There may be shortages in 5.56 military spec. (if you don't know the difference go to www.ammo-oracle.com) Some say you have to say something 7 times before someone hears you, but for everyones benefit, this was my last.
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Thanks for the heads up, wondered why I am having trouble feeding my birthday/Christmas present.
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I do believe there is going to be a shortage, but it seems that notice of this shortage was called a little early, at least as far as Ammoman is concerned; over the weekend, Ammoman had boxed XM193, then on Sunday he went out of stock, now he's back in stock, also the "combo" pack XM193/tracer went out of stock then came back in stock...roller coaster ride leading to the end? I will say that all internet retailers that I have checked are out of boxed XM193 (except Ammoman), probably some retailers who don't do business on the 'net may be faring better depending on local demand...
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My local shops are out of XM193 and Q3131A. Even the plain WWB 223 is getting scarce.
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Ammoman just found 200 more cases of XM193 boxed Lot #87 and when I was at Bass Pro over the weekend, they had plenty of Winchester Q3131A. Yes, I did scoop up several boxes!
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