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Posted: 5/9/2024 11:28:18 AM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistorySkim his Twitter page. All I will say is 
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Posted: 5/9/2024 11:52:06 AM EDT
[#2]
According to the .gov SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER the earth will experience several CME impacts in the next few days.
What you do with the information is up to you 
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Posted: 5/9/2024 12:03:15 PM EDT
[#3]
Oh tay knows, we gon dy.
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TX, USA
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Posted: 5/9/2024 12:05:37 PM EDT
[#4]
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Posted: 5/9/2024 12:05:47 PM EDT
[#5]
Don't this just mean we will the Aurora Borealis more South?
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Posted: 5/9/2024 12:18:17 PM EDT
[#6]
none are more pathetic than the weekly solar flare doomers. but maybe next time!!!
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Posted: 5/9/2024 12:21:05 PM EDT
[#7]
This looks very bad.
Should we stock up a bit? Maybe 4X more ice and beer for the weekend? |
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Posted: 5/9/2024 12:30:20 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Mach: :Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2024 May 08 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 08/0141Z from Region 3663 (N26W70). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be high on days one, two, and three (09 May, 10 May, 11 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 08/0256Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 151 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 May), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (10 May) and minor storm to major storm levels on day three (11 May). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (09 May, 10 May, 11 May). III. Event probabilities 09 May-11 May Class M 95/95/95 Class X 60/60/60 Proton 25/25/25 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 May 227 Predicted 09 May-11 May 225/225/220 90 Day Mean 08 May 164 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 May 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 010/012-026/037-035/050 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/30 Minor Storm 15/30/35 Major-severe storm 01/10/25 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/05 Minor Storm 30/25/20 Major-severe storm 50/65/75 This says 75% chance of a Major / Severe storm on the 11th and that does not include the 12 which is when the big CME is supposed to hit because at the date / time group this was made, that last CME ( the one early this morning ) had not happened yet. The hair is standing up on the back of my neck so to speak. If I remember right they determined that the Carrington event was two CME's with the first depleting the ionosphere and paving the way for the full force of the second. Looks like this may be a similar happening. |
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Posted: 5/9/2024 12:54:42 PM EDT
[#9]
They finally updated the Solar Wind prediction.
 It doesn’t show the fourth CME catching up with the first three. I wouldn’t be surprised if that gets refined in the coming hours. Time on the chart is UTC. So +4 hours on eastern. |
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Posted: 5/9/2024 1:06:04 PM EDT
[#10]
An-n-nd here we go again...
Here's what I use: https://solarham.com/ |
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Posted: 5/9/2024 1:23:04 PM EDT
[#11]
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Posted: 5/9/2024 1:44:47 PM EDT
[#12]
And another X is popping off right now.
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Posted: 5/9/2024 1:47:39 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By cgrant26: And another X is popping off right now. AR 3664 keeps on giving! Northern lights are going to be great the next several days! |
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Posted: 5/9/2024 1:51:01 PM EDT
[Last Edit: cgrant26]
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GoldenMead: AR 3664 keeps on giving! Northern lights are going to be great the next several days! Still nowhere near Halloween 2003 level of output but 3664 will still be on the Earth-facing disk for another couple days.  This is like lots of decent wins at the slot machine but really hoping for the jackpot. |
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Posted: 5/9/2024 2:03:29 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By cgrant26: Still nowhere near Halloween 2003 level of output but 3664 will still be on the Earth-facing disk for another couple days. This is like lots of decent wins but really hoping for the jackpot. With the multiple impacts and the earth’s magnetic field strength has decreased a lot since 2003. This could have the same impact as then or worse. Either way the light show is going to be great. |
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MD, USA
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Posted: 5/9/2024 2:04:09 PM EDT
[#16]
NOAA is saying cme will merge and G4 conditions late the 10 or the 11th
"G 4 Severe Power systems: Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems will mistakenly trip out key assets from the grid. Spacecraft operations: May experience surface charging and tracking problems, corrections may be needed for orientation problems. Other systems: Induced pipeline currents affect preventive measures, HF radio propagation sporadic, satellite navigation degraded for hours, low-frequency radio navigation disrupted, and aurora has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California (typically 45° geomagnetic lat.). Kp = 8, including a 9- 100 per cycle (60 days per cycle)" https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g4-watch-effect-may-11 |
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IN, USA
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Posted: 5/9/2024 2:06:21 PM EDT
[#17]
It's the end of the world as we know it.
And I feel fine. 😌 |
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Posted: 5/9/2024 2:07:18 PM EDT
[Last Edit: nmxdavenn]
[#18]
Ive taken over 4 of my neighbors houses and set up a perimeter defense.
Mother fucking sun not getting me! Not today you bright fuck! |
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Posted: 5/9/2024 2:08:38 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By nmxdavenn: Ive taken over 4 of my neighbors houses and set up a perimeter defense. Mother fucking sun not getting me! Not today you bright fuck!  |
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Posted: 5/9/2024 2:13:01 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By agillig: It seems like solar flares are heading toward us every other week, and nothing. I'm not trying to troll, but explain to me in layman's terms why this 4 non-events are going to be an event. I dunno, I guess it's like someone shooting a 45/70 with no sights at you from 1000yds away, on a long enough time line they're going to land one, it's just math. |
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Posted: 5/9/2024 2:18:17 PM EDT
[#21]
This will be 4X bigger than Y2K!
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Posted: 5/9/2024 2:19:56 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By migradog: Will we get auroras in SW ID? @migradog Probably. This is what my email said: Navigation - Satellite navigation (GPS) degraded or inoperable for hours. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation sporadic or blacked out. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Alabama and northern California. |
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Posted: 5/9/2024 2:24:51 PM EDT
[Last Edit: cgrant26]
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By xjronx: NOAA is saying cme will merge and G4 conditions late the 10 or the 11th "G 4 Severe Power systems: Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems will mistakenly trip out key assets from the grid. Spacecraft operations: May experience surface charging and tracking problems, corrections may be needed for orientation problems. Other systems: Induced pipeline currents affect preventive measures, HF radio propagation sporadic, satellite navigation degraded for hours, low-frequency radio navigation disrupted, and aurora has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California (typically 45° geomagnetic lat.). Kp = 8, including a 9- 100 per cycle (60 days per cycle)" https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g4-watch-effect-may-11 April 2023 we had fast solar wind from a strong coronal hole interact with a couple CMEs. That combined with the IMF Bz going solidly South for most of the night pushed us into G4 solar storm conditions for most of the night and briefly pushed us into G5 territory and nothing happened to the power grid. This storm isn't expected to reach that strength and it certainly isn't going to last as long. I wouldn't worry. |
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MI, USA
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Posted: 5/9/2024 2:26:28 PM EDT
[#24]
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UT, USA
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Posted: 5/9/2024 2:28:01 PM EDT
[#25]
I am naked and oiled with a tin foil helmet on.
The sprinkler system has been charged with gasoline and tracer rounds have been loaded. I have spread clothes and furniture in the front yard to appear as though we have already been looted. The boomba roomba has been deployed. Standing by to stand by. This better be real this time…! Going 0 dark 30, danger close. See you on the other side friends. 
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GA, USA
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Posted: 5/9/2024 2:31:01 PM EDT
[#26]
heck maybe it will hit knock us back into the 1950s...
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Posted: 5/9/2024 2:33:03 PM EDT
[#27]
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Posted: 5/9/2024 2:39:30 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By migradog: Will we get auroras in SW ID? Pictures from a couple months back showed people seeing glow from it at Bogus, or a little further north like Council/Cascade. Watching them on the SWPC website was neat because it seemed like there were a couple spots just pumping out flares. It will be interesting to see because of the line of them that are directed to earth, and each flare was a few hours apart. |
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TN, USA
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Posted: 5/9/2024 2:40:35 PM EDT
[#29]
Are any of them aimed at Dayton oh?
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Posted: 5/9/2024 2:40:52 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DarkStar:
The comments ...  "I feel so “off” yesterday and today and with an aggravating headache. Could this be why?" "What effect could this have on pregnancy?" "Anyone have thoughts on giving birth during solar events?" |
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Posted: 5/9/2024 2:42:03 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By midmo: The comments ... "I feel so "off" yesterday and today and with an aggravating headache. Could this be why?" "What effect could this have on pregnancy?" "Anyone have thoughts on giving birth during solar events?" |
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Posted: 5/9/2024 2:42:07 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By taliv: Are any of them aimed at Dayton oh? |
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Posted: 5/9/2024 2:43:55 PM EDT
[#33]
Good thing my beer fridge is on point. I'd hate to watch the downfall of western civilization in real time because of solar event without ice cold beer.
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Posted: 5/9/2024 2:48:40 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By midmo: The comments ... "I feel so “off” yesterday and today and with an aggravating headache. Could this be why?" "What effect could this have on pregnancy?" "Anyone have thoughts on giving birth during solar events?" Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By midmo: Originally Posted By DarkStar:
The comments ... "I feel so “off” yesterday and today and with an aggravating headache. Could this be why?" "What effect could this have on pregnancy?" "Anyone have thoughts on giving birth during solar events?" Thank God I don't do X or FB or IG |
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MI, USA
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Posted: 5/9/2024 2:58:46 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By xd341: yeah that dude is a little out there. He also does the Suspicious Observers channel on YouTube as well. I follow him because he's timely with space weather information. |
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Posted: 5/9/2024 2:59:50 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DarkStar: He also does the Suspicious Observers channel on YouTube as well. I follow him because he's timely with space weather information. |
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Posted: 5/9/2024 3:17:26 PM EDT
[#37]
I'm going to make some egg salad and eat it.
It's are loaded with cholesterol. The wife won't even let me touch it. Hardly seems to matter now, 'cause chances are we're already dead. |
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Posted: 5/9/2024 3:18:48 PM EDT
[#38]
I could use a vacation.
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CA, USA
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Posted: 5/9/2024 3:20:16 PM EDT
[#39]
Hopefully no Carrington crap happens while I’m on a damn airplane on the 13th. And I certainly don’t wanna be stuck in Minneapolis without a gun during a power outage
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Posted: 5/9/2024 3:27:18 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By sirbordsalot311: Hopefully no Carrington crap happens while I’m on a damn airplane on the 13th. And I certainly don’t wanna be stuck in Minneapolis without a gun during a power outage Head south of the river. We got you. :) |
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USA
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Posted: 5/9/2024 3:32:52 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By tct1000: none are more pathetic than the weekly solar flare doomers. but maybe next time!!! Depends on how big they get |
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Posted: 5/9/2024 3:35:25 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By xjronx: NOAA is saying cme will merge and G4 conditions late the 10 or the 11th "G 4 Severe Power systems: Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems will mistakenly trip out key assets from the grid. Spacecraft operations: May experience surface charging and tracking problems, corrections may be needed for orientation problems. Other systems: Induced pipeline currents affect preventive measures, HF radio propagation sporadic, satellite navigation degraded for hours, low-frequency radio navigation disrupted, and aurora has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California (typically 45° geomagnetic lat.). Kp = 8, including a 9- 100 per cycle (60 days per cycle)" https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g4-watch-effect-may-11 Man, it would be cool to see the aurora. Kinda a bucket list item for me. |
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USA
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Posted: 5/9/2024 3:35:39 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Just10mm: I am naked and oiled with a tin foil helmet on. The sprinkler system has been charged with gasoline and tracer rounds have been loaded. I have spread clothes and furniture in the front yard to appear as though we have already been looted. The boomba roomba has been deployed. Standing by to stand by. This better be real this time…! Going 0 dark 30, danger close. See you on the other side friends. That's how ya do it, right there!  |
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WI, USA
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Posted: 5/9/2024 3:38:16 PM EDT
[#44]
So what are the statistical chances of a Carrington event in any given year of elevator solar activity?
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Posted: 5/9/2024 3:43:57 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Mach: But will any of these CMEs actually hit earth? Just because they get ejected doesn't mean we are in the path. The video didn't actually address this, so i am guess it is bullshit. |
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Posted: 5/9/2024 3:51:52 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GGF: It's the end of the world as we know it. And I feel fine. 😌 with any luck maybe we will get rid of the AI bullshit and rectify the mistake known as computers and get a reset on that. |
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Posted: 5/9/2024 3:52:10 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Terriblis: I'm going to make some egg salad and eat it. It's are loaded with cholesterol. The wife won't even let me touch it. Hardly seems to matter now, 'cause chances are we're already dead. I don't know if you have heard or not, but science has proven cholesterol in food has little to no effect on your cholesterol in your body. |
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Posted: 5/9/2024 3:56:17 PM EDT
[#48]
This page listed the CME and weather they are halo events ( earth impacting )
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/latest-cmes.html |
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Posted: 5/9/2024 4:00:22 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DarkStar: He also does the Suspicious Observers channel on YouTube as well. I follow him because he's timely with space weather information. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DarkStar: Originally Posted By xd341: yeah that dude is a little out there. He also does the Suspicious Observers channel on YouTube as well. I follow him because he's timely with space weather information. I've been following for a few years, is Ben a member here? |
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Posted: 5/9/2024 4:09:37 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By southerncross: I don't know if you have heard or not, but science has proven cholesterol in food has little to no effect on your cholesterol in your body. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By southerncross: Originally Posted By Terriblis: I'm going to make some egg salad and eat it. It's are loaded with cholesterol. The wife won't even let me touch it. Hardly seems to matter now, 'cause chances are we're already dead. I don't know if you have heard or not, but science has proven cholesterol in food has little to no effect on your cholesterol in your body. Beat me to it |
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