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Posted: 5/6/2024 5:42:54 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: I could buy that if it were a one-time thing, but we've seen a bunch of videos of naval drones in the day. Some successful attacks at night, but other occasions of daytime use. Naval operations are quite used to close consideration of wind/weather/tide/current conditions. Getting across to Sevastopol isn't that far that planners could be taken by surprise. Odessa to Sevastopol is about 205 nautical miles. At 15 knots, it's more than half a day. Launch in late afternoon, sunset with the unit in international water, getting close to Sevastopol early enough to confront the harbor defenses before sunrise. That's quite an oversimplification, of course. It assumes steady speed and direct course, which are both unlikely. Even so, the back half of the journey should be taking place in full dark. Are Russian helos catching them in open water long before they approach Crimea? Russian air patrol gives them a HUGE advantage because Russia has air superiority. Again, I only raise this because we've seen multiple videos of sea drones getting attacked in full daylight. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu:Why are the naval drones deployed during day when they are visible to everyone? Why do they not send them out at night? Agreed. I assume that with the long journey, they miscalculated when it would arrive, it got delayed and ended up near the target in the daytime. I could buy that if it were a one-time thing, but we've seen a bunch of videos of naval drones in the day. Some successful attacks at night, but other occasions of daytime use. Naval operations are quite used to close consideration of wind/weather/tide/current conditions. Getting across to Sevastopol isn't that far that planners could be taken by surprise. Odessa to Sevastopol is about 205 nautical miles. At 15 knots, it's more than half a day. Launch in late afternoon, sunset with the unit in international water, getting close to Sevastopol early enough to confront the harbor defenses before sunrise. That's quite an oversimplification, of course. It assumes steady speed and direct course, which are both unlikely. Even so, the back half of the journey should be taking place in full dark. Are Russian helos catching them in open water long before they approach Crimea? Russian air patrol gives them a HUGE advantage because Russia has air superiority. Again, I only raise this because we've seen multiple videos of sea drones getting attacked in full daylight. AFAIK, all the daytime footage of drones prior to this was at the beginning of their use, and it’s possibly they weren’t equipped with suitable thermal cameras then. There’s a lot we don’t know about their deployment. Launching them from the Odesa area is the most straightforward option but launching from boats can’t be completely ruled out. We don’t really have enough context to evaluate the helicopter drone kill. When and where was it? If the drone’s intended target was at the far northwestern edge of Crimea, it should be possible to launch near dusk at Odesa, transit at night and attack before dawn. If the intended target of the destroyed drone was on the east side of Crimea or the eastern Black Sea, some daylight transit would be likely, unless it was covertly launched from a boat somewhere in the Black Sea. I doubt it was an intentional daylight attack. If a night attack was intended, then perhaps they launched on bad intel, or they had to deal with a delay en route like a storm, or the Russians got wind of it, or the Russians just deviated from expectations. It’s also hard to say what Ukraine’s practice is with bringing back an unused drone from an aborted or fouled up mission. |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 5/6/2024 5:43:47 PM EDT
[Last Edit: GBTX01]
[#2]
Keeping an eye on this for more information...
Edit: looks like it was not an attempt on Crown Princess |
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Posted: 5/6/2024 5:45:16 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MKSheppard:
https://i.imgur.com/Ke1VXXb.png https://i.imgur.com/XxVGWDq.png Russia's not yet quite out of AFVs yet, but the bottom of the barrel is in sight. Somewhat disappointed that we’re unlikely to see more of “the good stuff” like BTR-50s. |
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Posted: 5/6/2024 5:50:03 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Somebody is nervous.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GM69uakXEAA8iRG?format=jpg&name=900x900 There certainly could be a mass launch of ATACMS, but as usual they considerably overstate SCALP potential. Two Su-24s with four SCALPs are all that’s likely to be launched, just like every other SCALP launch. Ukraine might toss in a small handful of Neptunes as well, possibly 2-4. |
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Posted: 5/6/2024 5:50:38 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Can also be seen as a degree of strategic ambiguity regarding Belarus. If Belarus has to worry about Poland pushing their shit in, less likely for Belarus to get involved. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Interesting. So 3rd party intervention in Ukraine (Belarus invades?) and/or Russian provocations in any Baltic countries are red lines. Can also be seen as a degree of strategic ambiguity regarding Belarus. If Belarus has to worry about Poland pushing their shit in, less likely for Belarus to get involved. Lots of grey area here of course, depending on the degree of involvement Putin demanded. I haven't seen anything to convince me that Lukashenko would tell Putin to FO, but I'd certainly like to hear from anyone who has more insight. |
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Posted: 5/6/2024 5:53:05 PM EDT
[Last Edit: michigan66]
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GBTX01: Keeping an eye on this for more information...
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GBTX01: Keeping an eye on this for more information...
Oh boy. Palestinian sources are saying the IDF has taken over the Raffah crossing. Here are a few more of their tweets sent out in the last hour or so. View from the other side--Palestinian twitter updates
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Posted: 5/6/2024 5:55:59 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By absael: I wonder how strongly Lukashenko would push back if Putin told him to get more directly involved. I also wonder how influential the Belarusian citizenry would be. Lots of grey area here of course, depending on the degree of involvement Putin demanded. I haven't seen anything to convince me that Lukashenko would tell Putin to FO, but I'd certainly like to hear from anyone who has more insight. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By absael: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Interesting. So 3rd party intervention in Ukraine (Belarus invades?) and/or Russian provocations in any Baltic countries are red lines. Can also be seen as a degree of strategic ambiguity regarding Belarus. If Belarus has to worry about Poland pushing their shit in, less likely for Belarus to get involved. Lots of grey area here of course, depending on the degree of involvement Putin demanded. I haven't seen anything to convince me that Lukashenko would tell Putin to FO, but I'd certainly like to hear from anyone who has more insight. See, I disagree. I feel certain that Putin demanded Belarusian involvement starting in early March of 2022. The fact that they didn’t get involved from 2/22 until Russian mobilization and stabilization of the front in the winter of 2022-2023 demonstrates that Lukashenko was willing and able to defy Putin. |
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Posted: 5/6/2024 5:58:34 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By michigan66: Oh boy. Palestinian sources are saying the IDF has taken over the Raffah crossing. Here are a few more of their tweets sent out in the last hour or so. View from the other side--Palestinian twitter updates Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By michigan66: Originally Posted By GBTX01: Keeping an eye on this for more information...
Oh boy. Palestinian sources are saying the IDF has taken over the Raffah crossing. Here are a few more of their tweets sent out in the last hour or so. View from the other side--Palestinian twitter updates
Good. Time to clean house and make sure it can never happen again. Also with the operation coming to a close in another month or two, the time for payback against Russia is drawing ever closer. :) |
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Posted: 5/6/2024 6:34:40 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#9]
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Posted: 5/6/2024 6:38:50 PM EDT
[#10]
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Posted: 5/6/2024 6:47:46 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryI’d think Georgia or one of the -stans will be next up. Lower hanging fruit. |
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Posted: 5/6/2024 6:49:51 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Worth restating how huge those two A-50 kills were. |
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Posted: 5/6/2024 7:06:55 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4xGM300m:
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Posted: 5/6/2024 7:16:03 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bikedamon: I’d think Georgia or one of the -stans will be next up. Lower hanging fruit. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bikedamon: I’d think Georgia or one of the -stans will be next up. Lower hanging fruit. It won’t be the -stans. Russia has to worry about antagonizing China right now since China is actively expanding their influence there. That might change in the long run once Russian expansionism runs into a brick wall in the west and China gets more froggy. It will be either Georgia or Moldova with an outside chance of Chechnya. Georgia because, depending on exactly what goes down there, it’s a threat to Russia’s naval base under construction in occupied Georgian territory. Moldova because they can and will portray a pro-Russian coup in Moldova as leverage in response to what they see as a “coup” against Russian friendly government in Georgia. Chechnya will depend on the stability of the Succession from Kadyrov to his son. My opinion is that the Chechens who want to act against Kadyrov would prefer to wait for Russia to get worn down further. But when it goes down it will go down quickly and violently. |
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Posted: 5/6/2024 7:16:57 PM EDT
[#17]
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Posted: 5/6/2024 7:18:35 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CS223: What arms the things? It looks like just dump them in by the bucket full into an Acme can. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CS223: Originally Posted By 4xGM300m:
Looks like they copied ours, which are armed after spinning a certain number of revolutions per minute, for the old m74 in the ATACMS 2,400 rpm. https://cat-uxo.com/explosive-hazards/submunitions/m74-submunition They get flung out by the carrier vehicle spinning them out, usually.  M39 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) |
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OK, USA
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Posted: 5/6/2024 9:12:34 PM EDT
[#19]
Thank you so much for creating another important, relevant thread.
I was shadow-banned from the Russo-Ukrainian thread (made unable to comment but no warning issued "on record"), so I relish the opportunity to interact again. Regarding recent thoughts: I wouldn't put it past Putin to arrange a false flag that gives him an excuse to attack Georgia, in the same way that he did to excuse his past attacks against Chechnya. I believe such a false flag will be conducted sloppily and everyone but the Russian people will be able to see it for what it is...which may be especially useful to "wake up" the rest of Eastern Europe and the West to see that they need to exhibit courage and put down some serious support toward defeating Russia and/or removing Putin. Hopefully this will have an additional effect of forcing China to back off against Taiwan or anywhere else, allowing the rest of the world time to reflect and reconstitute. |
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Posted: 5/6/2024 9:36:46 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#20]
ISW assessment for May 6th.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-6-2024 Russian officials, particularly Medvedev, are critical elements of Russia’s efforts to use nuclear rhetoric as a form of reflexive control, as ISW has frequently reported.[9] Russian officials consistently time nuclear readiness exercises and vague threats of nuclear retaliation with important Western policy decisions regarding the war in Ukraine to force Western decision-makers to self-deter and temper their support for Ukraine. The current apparent resurgence of nuclear rhetoric, this time in the form of planned tactical nuclear weapons exercises, coincides with the imminent arrival of Western weapons in Ukraine. Russian officials are likely using the nuclear weapons information operation to discourage Ukraine’s Western partners from providing additional military support and to scare Western decision-makers out of allowing Ukrainian forces to use Western-provided systems to attack legitimate military targets in Russia. Russian troops engage in routine nuclear exercises as part of this wider nuclear rhetoric information operation, but ISW continues to assess that Russia is highly unlikely to use a tactical nuclear weapon on the battlefield in Ukraine or anywhere else.[10] |
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Posted: 5/6/2024 9:40:53 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fervid_dryfire: Thank you so much for creating another important, relevant thread. I was shadow-banned from the Russo-Ukrainian thread (made unable to comment but no warning issued "on record"), so I relish the opportunity to interact again. Regarding recent thoughts: I wouldn't put it past Putin to arrange a false flag that gives him an excuse to attack Georgia, in the same way that he did to excuse his past attacks against Chechnya. I believe such a false flag will be conducted sloppily and everyone but the Russian people will be able to see it for what it is...which may be especially useful to "wake up" the rest of Eastern Europe and the West to see that they need to exhibit courage and put down some serious support toward defeating Russia and/or removing Putin. Hopefully this will have an additional effect of forcing China to back off against Taiwan or anywhere else, allowing the rest of the world time to reflect and reconstitute. I agree. Moldova has too much chance of a backfire for Russia, as even if some sort of overthrow temporarily "succeeds", it would be weak and the Russians not only would not be able to reinforce against the inevitable insurgency, the Moldavian military, or what portion of it would be loyal to the new government, is definitely NOT up to the task. Not to mention that Moldavian is very close to Romanian, and it is inconceivable that Romania would just stand by and let the Russians take over Moldova, and I can assure you based on personal observation under combat conditions that the Romanian military would make short work of anything the Moldovan military (or whatever portion that chooses loyalty to the new government) or the "Russian Brigade" in Transnistria can throw at them. IF Russian Black Sea fleet had managed to remain relevant in the western Black Sea, it might be doable. Right now, the only outcome of a Russian amphib attack along that part of the Black Sea would be to create a future world-class diving destination. Ultimately, moving on Moldova would undermine the Russian position there as well as the probable eventual loss of Transnistria. |
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Posted: 5/6/2024 9:45:43 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: This is the dedicated anti ballistic missile variant.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GM6NX8_WcAA6TMR?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GM6NX9NXoAAuJ0C?format=jpg&name=large Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: This is the dedicated anti ballistic missile variant.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GM6NX8_WcAA6TMR?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GM6NX9NXoAAuJ0C?format=jpg&name=large Oooof. But hey, as a reminder AT Russia destroyed batteries of the patriot according to the Z-brigade  Originally Posted By 4xGM300m:
Did you hear much from the people complaining over DPICM going to Ukraine? Any threads? I didn't. |
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Posted: 5/6/2024 9:54:09 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fervid_dryfire: Thank you so much for creating another important, relevant thread. I was shadow-banned from the Russo-Ukrainian thread (made unable to comment but no warning issued "on record"), so I relish the opportunity to interact again. Regarding recent thoughts: I wouldn't put it past Putin to arrange a false flag that gives him an excuse to attack Georgia, in the same way that he did to excuse his past attacks against Chechnya. I believe such a false flag will be conducted sloppily and everyone but the Russian people will be able to see it for what it is...which may be especially useful to "wake up" the rest of Eastern Europe and the West to see that they need to exhibit courage and put down some serious support toward defeating Russia and/or removing Putin. Hopefully this will have an additional effect of forcing China to back off against Taiwan or anywhere else, allowing the rest of the world time to reflect and reconstitute. Not actually my idea, it was a group effort. But we could tell we’d lost a lot of people. |
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Posted: 5/6/2024 9:56:29 PM EDT
[Last Edit: fadedsun]
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MKSheppard:
https://i.imgur.com/Ke1VXXb.png https://i.imgur.com/XxVGWDq.png Russia's not yet quite out of AFVs yet, but the bottom of the barrel is in sight. That explains the sidecar with the pallet strapped to the side for infantry transport. |
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Posted: 5/6/2024 10:01:29 PM EDT
[#25]
🔥 UPDATED - scouts in Crimea destroyed the Russian boat "Mongoose"
🫡 On May 6, 2024, the GUR unit of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine "Group 13" destroyed the Russian high-speed patrol boat of project 12150 "Mongoose" with the help of a Magura V5 attack marine drone. ☝️ Boats of this class are used by the enemy fleet and special services as multi-purpose high-speed vessels for patrolling the water area, fighting against saboteurs, as well as search and rescue operations. ❗️ "Mongooses" have been produced since 2000. The boat is up to 20 m long and up to 5 m wide. The maximum speed is up to 50 knots. ▪️ The modified versions of the speedboats are equipped with combat remote-controlled modules with the main standard weapon - a 14.5 mm machine gun. ❗️ The Russians also have two AGS-17 automatic grenade launchers, a DP-64 manual anti-sabotage grenade launcher and two Igla or Verba type MANPADS on board the Mongoose. 💰 The estimated value of the destroyed "mongoose" is about 3 million dollars. 🇺🇦 Glory to Ukraine! https://t.me/DIUkraine/3791 
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Posted: 5/6/2024 10:02:08 PM EDT
[Last Edit: michigan66]
[#26]
This was in the ISW backgrounder on Iran and the Greater Middle East. I don't know if Kurdish leaders from Iraq meeting with Iranian bigwigs is common.
Iran Link A senior Iranian military officer described how Iran and the Axis of Resistance could destroy Israel with a multi-front ground attack. The comments suggest Iran is continuing to develop and refine its theory on how to destroy Israel. Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government President Nechirvan Barzani discussed economic and security cooperation with senior Iranian officials in Tehran on May 6. Barzani met with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rear Adm. Ali Akbar Ahmadian, President Ebrahim Raisi, and Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian. In the meeting, Barzani emphasized that his government will not allow “third parties” to use Iraqi Kurdistan to threaten Iranian security, presumably referring to the long-standing Iranian accusation that Israeli intelligence services and Kurdish militias use Iraqi Kurdistan ad a base to conduct operations in Iran. |
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Posted: 5/6/2024 10:12:52 PM EDT
[#27]
 https://www.kompas.com/global/read/2024/05/07/080700770/juara-angkat-besi-eropa-ini-tewas-dalam-perang-membela-ukraina 
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OK, USA
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Posted: 5/6/2024 10:38:00 PM EDT
[Last Edit: fervid_dryfire]
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: I agree. Moldova has too much chance of a backfire for Russia, as even if some sort of overthrow temporarily "succeeds", it would be weak and the Russians not only would not be able to reinforce against the inevitable insurgency, the Moldavian military, or what portion of it would be loyal to the new government, is definitely NOT up to the task. Not to mention that Moldavian is very close to Romanian, and it is inconceivable that Romania would just stand by and let the Russians take over Moldova, and I can assure you based on personal observation under combat conditions that the Romanian military would make short work of anything the Moldovan military (or whatever portion that chooses loyalty to the new government) or the "Russian Brigade" in Transnistria can throw at them. IF Russian Black Sea fleet had managed to remain relevant in the western Black Sea, it might be doable. Right now, the only outcome of a Russian amphib attack along that part of the Black Sea would be to create a future world-class diving destination. Ultimately, moving on Moldova would undermine the Russian position there as well as the probable eventual loss of Transnistria. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Originally Posted By fervid_dryfire: Thank you so much for creating another important, relevant thread. I was shadow-banned from the Russo-Ukrainian thread (made unable to comment but no warning issued "on record"), so I relish the opportunity to interact again. Regarding recent thoughts: I wouldn't put it past Putin to arrange a false flag that gives him an excuse to attack Georgia, in the same way that he did to excuse his past attacks against Chechnya. I believe such a false flag will be conducted sloppily and everyone but the Russian people will be able to see it for what it is...which may be especially useful to "wake up" the rest of Eastern Europe and the West to see that they need to exhibit courage and put down some serious support toward defeating Russia and/or removing Putin. Hopefully this will have an additional effect of forcing China to back off against Taiwan or anywhere else, allowing the rest of the world time to reflect and reconstitute. I agree. Moldova has too much chance of a backfire for Russia, as even if some sort of overthrow temporarily "succeeds", it would be weak and the Russians not only would not be able to reinforce against the inevitable insurgency, the Moldavian military, or what portion of it would be loyal to the new government, is definitely NOT up to the task. Not to mention that Moldavian is very close to Romanian, and it is inconceivable that Romania would just stand by and let the Russians take over Moldova, and I can assure you based on personal observation under combat conditions that the Romanian military would make short work of anything the Moldovan military (or whatever portion that chooses loyalty to the new government) or the "Russian Brigade" in Transnistria can throw at them. IF Russian Black Sea fleet had managed to remain relevant in the western Black Sea, it might be doable. Right now, the only outcome of a Russian amphib attack along that part of the Black Sea would be to create a future world-class diving destination. Ultimately, moving on Moldova would undermine the Russian position there as well as the probable eventual loss of Transnistria. I agree that an attack against Moldova would be a bad move, for many of the same reasons you state. What drove me to think that Georgia would be an especially "useful" place for Putin to conquer, because it's likely that a lot of Russian nationals chose Georgia as their (either final, or interim) destination as they fled Russia. It would send a strong message to those who already fled, and those who are yet to consider fleeing: "I'll come take your hiding place and "repatriate" you...to somewhere in Siberia." I believe Putin is definitely too far into the rule-by-fear culture he's created; he HAS to go for an easier win (than Ukraine) to Make Expatriot and Domestic Russians Scared Again, and Georgia would be convenient to that end. |
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Posted: 5/6/2024 10:39:36 PM EDT
[#29]
Hospital for iron: who saves equipment from "scratch"
This is an excursion to the rembase of the Anti-Tank Battalion and getting to know the soldiers of the Third Assault Division, who are bringing the equipment back to life after the battles. From American Hummers and military buggies to heavy armor. About how anti-tank vehicles are patched and where real transformers are born, why it was easier under Bakhmut than under Avdiivka, when they got the first western cars and how they learned to fix them in a short time - watch on YouTube! 🇺🇦https://t.me/ab3army/4032  ????? ????? “???????”: ?? ??????? ??????? ?????? ??? ??? 3 ???? |
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Posted: 5/6/2024 10:57:22 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Capta]
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: I agree. Moldova has too much chance of a backfire for Russia, as even if some sort of overthrow temporarily "succeeds", it would be weak and the Russians not only would not be able to reinforce against the inevitable insurgency, the Moldavian military, or what portion of it would be loyal to the new government, is definitely NOT up to the task. Not to mention that Moldavian is very close to Romanian, and it is inconceivable that Romania would just stand by and let the Russians take over Moldova, and I can assure you based on personal observation under combat conditions that the Romanian military would make short work of anything the Moldovan military (or whatever portion that chooses loyalty to the new government) or the "Russian Brigade" in Transnistria can throw at them. IF Russian Black Sea fleet had managed to remain relevant in the western Black Sea, it might be doable. Right now, the only outcome of a Russian amphib attack along that part of the Black Sea would be to create a future world-class diving destination. Ultimately, moving on Moldova would undermine the Russian position there as well as the probable eventual loss of Transnistria. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Originally Posted By fervid_dryfire: Thank you so much for creating another important, relevant thread. I was shadow-banned from the Russo-Ukrainian thread (made unable to comment but no warning issued "on record"), so I relish the opportunity to interact again. Regarding recent thoughts: I wouldn't put it past Putin to arrange a false flag that gives him an excuse to attack Georgia, in the same way that he did to excuse his past attacks against Chechnya. I believe such a false flag will be conducted sloppily and everyone but the Russian people will be able to see it for what it is...which may be especially useful to "wake up" the rest of Eastern Europe and the West to see that they need to exhibit courage and put down some serious support toward defeating Russia and/or removing Putin. Hopefully this will have an additional effect of forcing China to back off against Taiwan or anywhere else, allowing the rest of the world time to reflect and reconstitute. I agree. Moldova has too much chance of a backfire for Russia, as even if some sort of overthrow temporarily "succeeds", it would be weak and the Russians not only would not be able to reinforce against the inevitable insurgency, the Moldavian military, or what portion of it would be loyal to the new government, is definitely NOT up to the task. Not to mention that Moldavian is very close to Romanian, and it is inconceivable that Romania would just stand by and let the Russians take over Moldova, and I can assure you based on personal observation under combat conditions that the Romanian military would make short work of anything the Moldovan military (or whatever portion that chooses loyalty to the new government) or the "Russian Brigade" in Transnistria can throw at them. IF Russian Black Sea fleet had managed to remain relevant in the western Black Sea, it might be doable. Right now, the only outcome of a Russian amphib attack along that part of the Black Sea would be to create a future world-class diving destination. Ultimately, moving on Moldova would undermine the Russian position there as well as the probable eventual loss of Transnistria. There’s different ways to execute a coup. My complete speculation is that there are already substantial numbers of Wagner/GRU everywhere there’s a Russian minority, and that a likely tactic is false flags against their own ethnic minorities to give Russia the pretext to escalate and scream NUKES! Then they muddy the water with their info ops claiming it was really the corrupt Nazi Ukrainians and say we either get our way or it’s WW3. It doesn’t have to be objectively possible to win for Putin to roll the dice. Look back on October 7th without the benefit of hindsight. Who here would’ve believed ahead of time that Russia would assist/organize/possibly execute the mass murder of Jews in Israel to divert support from Ukraine and create a political pressure point within the west? I humbly submit that the answer is “no one.” IMO we really do not appreciate how evil and desperate the Russian power structure is, and that nothing is off the table. What is the most despicable, ruthless course of action that you could possibly imagine, which improves their situation in Ukraine or advances the goal Russian Imperialism? Now understand that can happen. Putin will play every single card he has until someone puts a bullet in his head. A couple of other features of Russian, and in the larger sense, Asian military thinking are the concepts of indirect approach and surprise attack. Oct 7th is an extremely good example of indirect approach. There will be more of those. Ultimately there will be a surprise attack too, whether it’s mass chemical use in Ukraine, which we may be about to see, or deniable attacks on critical Western infrastructure (which have already happened), we need to think outside the box/worst case right now and all the time going forward. |
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Posted: 5/6/2024 11:18:31 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fervid_dryfire: I agree that an attack against Moldova would be a bad move, for many of the same reasons you state. What drove me to think that Georgia would be an especially "useful" place for Putin to conquer, because it's likely that a lot of Russian nationals chose Georgia as their (either final, or interim) destination as they fled Russia. It would send a strong message to those who already fled, and those who are yet to consider fleeing: "I'll come take your hiding place and "repatriate" you...to somewhere in Siberia." I believe Putin is definitely too far into the rule-by-fear culture he's created; he HAS to go for an easier win (than Ukraine) to Make Expatriot and Domestic Russians Scared Again, and Georgia would be convenient to that end. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fervid_dryfire: Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Originally Posted By fervid_dryfire: Thank you so much for creating another important, relevant thread. I was shadow-banned from the Russo-Ukrainian thread (made unable to comment but no warning issued "on record"), so I relish the opportunity to interact again. Regarding recent thoughts: I wouldn't put it past Putin to arrange a false flag that gives him an excuse to attack Georgia, in the same way that he did to excuse his past attacks against Chechnya. I believe such a false flag will be conducted sloppily and everyone but the Russian people will be able to see it for what it is...which may be especially useful to "wake up" the rest of Eastern Europe and the West to see that they need to exhibit courage and put down some serious support toward defeating Russia and/or removing Putin. Hopefully this will have an additional effect of forcing China to back off against Taiwan or anywhere else, allowing the rest of the world time to reflect and reconstitute. I agree. Moldova has too much chance of a backfire for Russia, as even if some sort of overthrow temporarily "succeeds", it would be weak and the Russians not only would not be able to reinforce against the inevitable insurgency, the Moldavian military, or what portion of it would be loyal to the new government, is definitely NOT up to the task. Not to mention that Moldavian is very close to Romanian, and it is inconceivable that Romania would just stand by and let the Russians take over Moldova, and I can assure you based on personal observation under combat conditions that the Romanian military would make short work of anything the Moldovan military (or whatever portion that chooses loyalty to the new government) or the "Russian Brigade" in Transnistria can throw at them. IF Russian Black Sea fleet had managed to remain relevant in the western Black Sea, it might be doable. Right now, the only outcome of a Russian amphib attack along that part of the Black Sea would be to create a future world-class diving destination. Ultimately, moving on Moldova would undermine the Russian position there as well as the probable eventual loss of Transnistria. I agree that an attack against Moldova would be a bad move, for many of the same reasons you state. What drove me to think that Georgia would be an especially "useful" place for Putin to conquer, because it's likely that a lot of Russian nationals chose Georgia as their (either final, or interim) destination as they fled Russia. It would send a strong message to those who already fled, and those who are yet to consider fleeing: "I'll come take your hiding place and "repatriate" you...to somewhere in Siberia." I believe Putin is definitely too far into the rule-by-fear culture he's created; he HAS to go for an easier win (than Ukraine) to Make Expatriot and Domestic Russians Scared Again, and Georgia would be convenient to that end. Russia may do something, I'm not sure Georgia would work out for Putin either. Of course, we already know that objective logic left Russia, at latest, sometime during the first year of this war. So Putin's "Russian Spirit" thinking (which seems to resemble "coke thinking" or "meth thinking" in a big way) may lead him to get involved in Georgia in a big way. All the Russians and most of the younger Georgians who are capable will flee, and I can see some significant armed resistance. More than Likely, unless he has Georgians are are really ready to go to the mat for "Mother Russia", Putin could well end up with a second Ukraine situation on his border. After all, many of the folks in the parliament who voted for the reporting requirement did so because they were against RUSSIA buying political parties. I know some Georgian Military types from Iraq and several US Army schools and I did not detect any positive fraternal feelings for Russia, particularly after 2008. 
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Posted: 5/6/2024 11:27:56 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: There’s different ways to execute a coup. My complete speculation is that there are already substantial numbers of Wagner/GRU everywhere there’s a Russian minority, and that a likely tactic is false flags against their own ethnic minorities to give Russia the pretext to escalate and scream NUKES! Then they muddy the water with their info ops claiming it was really the corrupt Nazi Ukrainians and say we either get our way or it’s WW3. It doesn’t have to be objectively possible to win for Putin to roll the dice. Look back on October 7th without the benefit of hindsight. Who here would’ve believed ahead of time that Russia would assist/organize/possibly execute the mass murder of Jews in Israel to divert support from Ukraine and create a political pressure point within the west? I humbly submit that the answer is “no one.” IMO we really do not appreciate how evil and desperate the Russian power structure is, and that nothing is off the table. What is the most despicable, ruthless course of action that you could possibly imagine, which improves their situation in Ukraine or advances the goal Russian Imperialism? Now understand that can happen. Putin will play every single card he has until someone puts a bullet in his head. A couple of other features of Russian, and in the larger sense, Asian military thinking are the concepts of indirect approach and surprise attack. Oct 7th is an extremely good example of indirect approach. There will be more of those. Ultimately there will be a surprise attack too, whether it’s mass chemical use in Ukraine, which we may be about to see, or deniable attacks on critical Western infrastructure (which have already happened), Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Originally Posted By fervid_dryfire: Thank you so much for creating another important, relevant thread. I was shadow-banned from the Russo-Ukrainian thread (made unable to comment but no warning issued "on record"), so I relish the opportunity to interact again. Regarding recent thoughts: I wouldn't put it past Putin to arrange a false flag that gives him an excuse to attack Georgia, in the same way that he did to excuse his past attacks against Chechnya. I believe such a false flag will be conducted sloppily and everyone but the Russian people will be able to see it for what it is...which may be especially useful to "wake up" the rest of Eastern Europe and the West to see that they need to exhibit courage and put down some serious support toward defeating Russia and/or removing Putin. Hopefully this will have an additional effect of forcing China to back off against Taiwan or anywhere else, allowing the rest of the world time to reflect and reconstitute. I agree. Moldova has too much chance of a backfire for Russia, as even if some sort of overthrow temporarily "succeeds", it would be weak and the Russians not only would not be able to reinforce against the inevitable insurgency, the Moldavian military, or what portion of it would be loyal to the new government, is definitely NOT up to the task. Not to mention that Moldavian is very close to Romanian, and it is inconceivable that Romania would just stand by and let the Russians take over Moldova, and I can assure you based on personal observation under combat conditions that the Romanian military would make short work of anything the Moldovan military (or whatever portion that chooses loyalty to the new government) or the "Russian Brigade" in Transnistria can throw at them. IF Russian Black Sea fleet had managed to remain relevant in the western Black Sea, it might be doable. Right now, the only outcome of a Russian amphib attack along that part of the Black Sea would be to create a future world-class diving destination. Ultimately, moving on Moldova would undermine the Russian position there as well as the probable eventual loss of Transnistria. There’s different ways to execute a coup. My complete speculation is that there are already substantial numbers of Wagner/GRU everywhere there’s a Russian minority, and that a likely tactic is false flags against their own ethnic minorities to give Russia the pretext to escalate and scream NUKES! Then they muddy the water with their info ops claiming it was really the corrupt Nazi Ukrainians and say we either get our way or it’s WW3. It doesn’t have to be objectively possible to win for Putin to roll the dice. Look back on October 7th without the benefit of hindsight. Who here would’ve believed ahead of time that Russia would assist/organize/possibly execute the mass murder of Jews in Israel to divert support from Ukraine and create a political pressure point within the west? I humbly submit that the answer is “no one.” IMO we really do not appreciate how evil and desperate the Russian power structure is, and that nothing is off the table. What is the most despicable, ruthless course of action that you could possibly imagine, which improves their situation in Ukraine or advances the goal Russian Imperialism? Now understand that can happen. Putin will play every single card he has until someone puts a bullet in his head. A couple of other features of Russian, and in the larger sense, Asian military thinking are the concepts of indirect approach and surprise attack. Oct 7th is an extremely good example of indirect approach. There will be more of those. Ultimately there will be a surprise attack too, whether it’s mass chemical use in Ukraine, which we may be about to see, or deniable attacks on critical Western infrastructure (which have already happened), I concur. We have to quit thinking about Russia's actions based on our ideas of what is reasonable, rational, or logical. Their decision-making is closer to the type of thing we saw in the middle east, only with more cunning. I still tend to believe that, for the Russians, going into Georgia would be a huge mistake, as would going into Moldavia. However, the closest we can come to thinking in Russian with the current leadership is to ask yourself "what would a cokehead/methhead with poor impulse control do if THEY were in charge!
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Posted: 5/6/2024 11:38:53 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By mcantu: I wonder what would happen if Ukraine destroyed/damaged that ship, since it's a nuclear powered cruiser? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By mcantu: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: That is a fat and juicy target in the area.
Images of other ships of that class before the modernization for reference. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fe/ARKR_Kalinin_bow_highlighted.jpg/1280px-ARKR_Kalinin_bow_highlighted.jpg https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/2b/BCGN_Kalinin_1991.jpg/1280px-BCGN_Kalinin_1991.jpg HI Sutton reference of this exact ship. https://imageio.forbes.com/specials-images/imageserve/5f363983311f7c421e5597dd/Satellite-image-of-the-battle-cruiser-Admiral-Nakhimov-in-the-shipyard-at/0x0.jpg?format=jpg&crop=1528,859,x0,y28,safe&width=1440 https://cdn-media.tass.ru/width/1020_b9261fa1/tass/m2/en/uploads/i/20230530/1392957.jpg https://cdn1.img.sputnikglobe.com/img/101964/57/1019645714_0:0:3011:2048_1440x900_80_0_1_1fcc6f32fafa38088e2b904eeef71714.jpg.webp?source-sid=rian_photo I imagine if it’s buoyancy reserve were compromised it would sink to the bottom.
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Posted: 5/6/2024 11:46:26 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Capta]
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: I concur. We have to quit thinking about Russia's actions based on our ideas of what is reasonable, rational, or logical. Their decision-making is closer to the type of thing we saw in the middle east, only with more cunning. I still tend to believe that, for the Russians, going into Georgia would be a huge mistake, as would going into Moldavia. However, the closest we can come to thinking in Russian with the current leadership is to ask yourself "what would a cokehead/methhead with poor impulse control do if THEY were in charge! Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Originally Posted By fervid_dryfire: Thank you so much for creating another important, relevant thread. I was shadow-banned from the Russo-Ukrainian thread (made unable to comment but no warning issued "on record"), so I relish the opportunity to interact again. Regarding recent thoughts: I wouldn't put it past Putin to arrange a false flag that gives him an excuse to attack Georgia, in the same way that he did to excuse his past attacks against Chechnya. I believe such a false flag will be conducted sloppily and everyone but the Russian people will be able to see it for what it is...which may be especially useful to "wake up" the rest of Eastern Europe and the West to see that they need to exhibit courage and put down some serious support toward defeating Russia and/or removing Putin. Hopefully this will have an additional effect of forcing China to back off against Taiwan or anywhere else, allowing the rest of the world time to reflect and reconstitute. I agree. Moldova has too much chance of a backfire for Russia, as even if some sort of overthrow temporarily "succeeds", it would be weak and the Russians not only would not be able to reinforce against the inevitable insurgency, the Moldavian military, or what portion of it would be loyal to the new government, is definitely NOT up to the task. Not to mention that Moldavian is very close to Romanian, and it is inconceivable that Romania would just stand by and let the Russians take over Moldova, and I can assure you based on personal observation under combat conditions that the Romanian military would make short work of anything the Moldovan military (or whatever portion that chooses loyalty to the new government) or the "Russian Brigade" in Transnistria can throw at them. IF Russian Black Sea fleet had managed to remain relevant in the western Black Sea, it might be doable. Right now, the only outcome of a Russian amphib attack along that part of the Black Sea would be to create a future world-class diving destination. Ultimately, moving on Moldova would undermine the Russian position there as well as the probable eventual loss of Transnistria. There’s different ways to execute a coup. My complete speculation is that there are already substantial numbers of Wagner/GRU everywhere there’s a Russian minority, and that a likely tactic is false flags against their own ethnic minorities to give Russia the pretext to escalate and scream NUKES! Then they muddy the water with their info ops claiming it was really the corrupt Nazi Ukrainians and say we either get our way or it’s WW3. It doesn’t have to be objectively possible to win for Putin to roll the dice. Look back on October 7th without the benefit of hindsight. Who here would’ve believed ahead of time that Russia would assist/organize/possibly execute the mass murder of Jews in Israel to divert support from Ukraine and create a political pressure point within the west? I humbly submit that the answer is “no one.” IMO we really do not appreciate how evil and desperate the Russian power structure is, and that nothing is off the table. What is the most despicable, ruthless course of action that you could possibly imagine, which improves their situation in Ukraine or advances the goal Russian Imperialism? Now understand that can happen. Putin will play every single card he has until someone puts a bullet in his head. A couple of other features of Russian, and in the larger sense, Asian military thinking are the concepts of indirect approach and surprise attack. Oct 7th is an extremely good example of indirect approach. There will be more of those. Ultimately there will be a surprise attack too, whether it’s mass chemical use in Ukraine, which we may be about to see, or deniable attacks on critical Western infrastructure (which have already happened), I concur. We have to quit thinking about Russia's actions based on our ideas of what is reasonable, rational, or logical. Their decision-making is closer to the type of thing we saw in the middle east, only with more cunning. I still tend to believe that, for the Russians, going into Georgia would be a huge mistake, as would going into Moldavia. However, the closest we can come to thinking in Russian with the current leadership is to ask yourself "what would a cokehead/methhead with poor impulse control do if THEY were in charge! Cunning, technical competence, and astute understanding of the West. The Arabs don’t get us any more than we get them. The Russians understand us but we have forgotten and are having to re-learn how to understand them. To be clear I think a Moldovan adventure would be reactionary (to Georgia) from their perspective, but also in their perspective a completely fair “tit-for-tat”. Until it happens, it’s leverage. I also hope (and in my person opinion this is the case) that the Romanian secret service is already balls deep in Moldova. Romania is not a country you’d want to mess with, those guys will kill you. Reason I think Georgia is the most likely target comes down to their new naval base. They’ve been mostly driven out of Sevastopol, and Novorossisk isn’t a great alternative. As of now they have good reason to expect further losses to the BSF as “escalation lines” cease to be effective and Ukraine gets better stuff and more experience. They also have good reason to expect that they won’t be able to operate freely from Sevastopol for a long time. From their perspective, they cannot accept being reduced to naval irrelevance in the Black Sea. Of course, the sane thing would’ve been to never start the war and coexist peacefully and profitably, but the Russians have taken that idea, run it through a blender, set it on fire, then pissed on the ashes. They are pursuing and will pursue a policy of naked force to accomplish Imperialist goals, a major one of which is hegemony over Black Sea trade. No naval base, no Black Sea hegemony. They may be willing to accept losses along the way but the idea of not having a safe base for their fleet will be intolerable. A litmus test for Russian intentions will be how far they push the Georgian Dream party to pass these unpopular measures. If Georgia Dream backs off like they did last year, it indicates Russia isn’t yet willing to cause themselves more problems and they will accept status quo for now. If Georgia Dream tries to ram it through then this indicates Russia is determined on solidifying their grip on Georgia now, making a Georgian Maidan more likely and also indicating the Russians (who would have to know this was a likely outcome) will attempt to intervene somehow. Objectively, losing a friendly regime in Georgia doesn’t mean losing their base. Even in the case of a complete overthrow, which is possible but unlikely, Russia could just say “we’re keeping Abkhazia and there’s nothing you can do about it.” With Abkhazia being contiguous with Russia, there’s no geographic obstacle to this. But…this does not fit the Russian modus operandi, which is to control their neighbors by political means if possible but force if necessary. With increasing paranoia, dysfunction, losses, and economic pressure, this kind of response will become MORE imperative to Russia, not less. IMO. |
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Posted: 5/7/2024 12:31:48 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: It may be coming. In WWII, the Germans still relied heavily on horses. Kossack horseback assaults in 3,2,1... Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By gatetraveller: I really want to see some Russian assaults using horse drawn carts! It may be coming. In WWII, the Germans still relied heavily on horses. Kossack horseback assaults in 3,2,1... While I enjoy watching the russian bastards being blown to shit. I won't watch vids of innocent animals being harmed. |
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Posted: 5/7/2024 12:39:33 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Same. Although once dropping rounds down an 81mm mortar led to deafening silence. After kicking the side of the tube for a while we had the option of tipping the tube while a volunteer tries to grab the round or calling EOD. We called EOD. But I dont think anyone re-used that round nor was it "intercepted" in the Russian sense. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Technically, they were destroyed when they detonated. In 33 years, I never got to re-use a 155mm projectile, a STINGER missile, a LAW/AT-4, or a 2.75 rocket once I had fired it! Same. Although once dropping rounds down an 81mm mortar led to deafening silence. After kicking the side of the tube for a while we had the option of tipping the tube while a volunteer tries to grab the round or calling EOD. We called EOD. But I dont think anyone re-used that round nor was it "intercepted" in the Russian sense. See! More proof the MIC is fucking over the American taxpayer! We spend billions every year buying new stuff from them because they designed all of our bombs, explosives, missiles and shells to be one use items! Eisenhower warned us about this! |
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Posted: 5/7/2024 1:49:56 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BigGrumpyBear: While I enjoy watching the russian bastards being blown to shit. I won't watch vids of innocent animals being harmed. I have mixed feelings about it. Even if Russians and other commies aren't *really* people, they look and explode and suffer and die like real people, and the verisimilitude affects me. War never changes, and war is hell. |
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Posted: 5/7/2024 1:52:38 AM EDT
[#40]
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Posted: 5/7/2024 2:45:43 AM EDT
[#41]
LOL Xi Jinping talks world peace in France today as China pulls this shit after the Philippines shit.
On par for course for Beijing https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/05/06/asia/china-australia-helicopter-flares-intl-hnk-ml  Attached File |
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Posted: 5/7/2024 2:47:43 AM EDT
[#42]
LOL Xi Jinping talks world peace in France today as China pulls this shit after the Philippines shit.
On par for course for Beijing https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/05/06/asia/china-australia-helicopter-flares-intl-hnk-ml Attached File |
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Posted: 5/7/2024 4:25:45 AM EDT
[#43]
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Posted: 5/7/2024 4:33:49 AM EDT
[#44]
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Posted: 5/7/2024 4:38:26 AM EDT
[#45]
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Posted: 5/7/2024 4:49:40 AM EDT
[#46]
 ???????. ?????. ???? 803. ?????????????   Yevhen Antonyuk is the head of one of the advanced surgical units that provide medical care to wounded soldiers at different areas of the front. Yevhen Antoniuk became a laureate of the highest honor in the field of health care - the Order of Saint Panteleimon https://facebook.com/share/p/Ue1o6D5cU8Qtem8s/    https://twitter.com/GeneralStaffUA/status/1787763170150330730 |
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Posted: 5/7/2024 5:08:24 AM EDT
[#47]
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: 5/7/2024 5:18:27 AM EDT
[#48]
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Posted: 5/7/2024 5:35:55 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GM9H6POXkAA_-nZ?format=jpg&name=large
One thing I noticed is that the walls of every Ukrainian CP I’ve seen are lined with what looks like that fine mylar bubble packing material. Must be to reduce thermal and possibly RF signature. Maybe it’s even a Faraday cage. I’ve seen it here, at Magyars, at the Terra battalion, and more. |
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Posted: 5/7/2024 5:39:45 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Capta]
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GM5yqSmawAAUKip?format=jpg&name=small
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZ56d3UVUAERZey?format=jpg&name=small
Isn’t that the Nazi from Inglorious Bastards? |
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