Quoted:
I still don't believe it's only 8.3%.

My personal costs are up over 10%.  We got a list of vendor price increases at work and they were averaging around 15%

Quoted:
The government has so much debt now that it probably can’t afford to meaningfully raise interest rates.

Quoted:


The government cannot afford high interest or inflation. Think of automatic raises built into small programs like SS. They will do everything possible to lower the reporting of inflation until after SS COLA is announced. If they wait until after the election, they get second win. They can always adjust the CPI later and blame the Republicans.

Quoted:



I keep seeing folks on ARFCOM write this.

My family keeps an extremely detailed budget spreadsheet, and we enter each receipt on a tracking spreadsheet.

At the beginning of the biden administration our grocery budget for a family of 5 was $1,085 / month. grocery budget for us includes: Food, Clothing, Household filters (HVAC and Water), community youth sports fees, along with stuff like deoderant, new toothbrushes, diapers, new shoes, etc.

Today, our budget is $1,185 a month.

We have had to do some tightening, pushed up against the monthly limit more often, etc. It is harder for us to shop and keep under the $1,185 budget today, than keeping under the $1,085 budget was 2 years ago. but our kids are older, in more sports, growing like weed etc.  I certainly do not believe we have had 20% inflation and been able to maintain this budget.

But this data point knowing how detailed I track this stuff, ALONG with the Arfcom general response of "LIAR!!" In august 2022 when Biden said "Month to Month inflation this month was Zero" when my own vehicle gasoline bill at 140 Gallons / Month for my family decreased by over $200 from July to August (without a $200 increase in my grocery bill from July to August) makes me seriously question the validity of any posted claims here about inflation rates. I believe at least many of these claims are not informed by hard data that is objectively tracked from month to month. I mean on this same forum we have posters who claim their federal tax rate was 40%, on a $200K income.

Edit to add:

We have added $0 to these categories in our monthly/annual budget since Biden took office:
Mortgage
Electric (actually went down by $6 a month when i updated the last 12 months rolling average a few months ago)
Trash pickup
Car Insurance (decreased by $95 a month changing to GEICO for the same coverage 2 months ago)
Healthcare
Tolls plus Parking
Alarm System Monitoring
Password Vault Service
Cell Phone Bill
ICloud
Gym Membership
Disney+
Weight Watchers
Entertainment (restaurant and alcohol)
Anti Virus software
Spotify
Audible
Amazon Prime

This category has increased by 11% since Biden took office:
Child Care (daycare)

These categories have increased by at least a few dollars a month:
Netflix
Directv

This category has increased by 15% since Biden took office:
Hunt Club (lease) dues


We are going to Aruba for 6 days in 2023. I noted recently, room prices are up approximately 60% since the time I made the budget for this trip in 2019. That was a smack in the face, but we'll grin and bear it and go regardless.


I believe our personal inflation, which includes some tightening in our house, is likely approx 10% total since Inauguration.

Quoted:
You know what's really interesting to me about this round of inflation? It's happening in spite of the US dollar being stronger than it's been since 2002--that's crazy IMO and begs the question what happens when the dollar goes down since the only bipartisan solution to anything is print?

Or absent printer goes brrrr, how high does it go when the Fed raises rates as much as they need to curb inflation, thus begging the question what happens to US exports?

What a time to be alive!

I haven't come across much about this fascinating phenomenon in the economic press.
US Dollar Index

Quoted:
Food up 11.4%
Energy up 23.8%...
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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How could this happen when Congress just passed a massive spending bill called The Inflation Reduction Act?

Quoted:
Well, my 2.5% COLA should cover it

HideThePainHarold.jpg

Quoted:
Dow futures up 215. Honk

Quoted:
Perhaps you should look at the inflation rate in Canada, the UK, and the EU zone.  This is not a U.S. only phenomena.

Quoted:



I keep seeing folks on ARFCOM write this.

My family keeps an extremely detailed budget spreadsheet, and we enter each receipt on a tracking spreadsheet.

At the beginning of the biden administration our grocery budget for a family of 5 was $1,085 / month. grocery budget for us includes: Food, Clothing, Household filters (HVAC and Water), community youth sports fees, along with stuff like deoderant, new toothbrushes, diapers, new shoes, etc.

Today, our budget is $1,185 a month.

We have had to do some tightening, pushed up against the monthly limit more often, etc. It is harder for us to shop and keep under the $1,185 budget today, than keeping under the $1,085 budget was 2 years ago. but our kids are older, in more sports, growing like weed etc.  I certainly do not believe we have had 20% inflation and been able to maintain this budget.

But this data point knowing how detailed I track this stuff, ALONG with the Arfcom general response of "LIAR!!" In august 2022 when Biden said "Month to Month inflation this month was Zero" when my own vehicle gasoline bill at 140 Gallons / Month for my family decreased by over $200 from July to August (without a $200 increase in my grocery bill from July to August) makes me seriously question the validity of any posted claims here about inflation rates. I believe at least many of these claims are not informed by hard data that is objectively tracked from month to month. I mean on this same forum we have posters who claim their federal tax rate was 40%, on a $200K income.

Edit to add:

We have added $0 to these categories in our monthly/annual budget since Biden took office:
Mortgage
Electric (actually went down by $6 a month when i updated the last 12 months rolling average a few months ago)
Trash pickup
Car Insurance (decreased by $95 a month changing to GEICO for the same coverage 2 months ago)
Healthcare
Tolls plus Parking
Alarm System Monitoring
Password Vault Service
Cell Phone Bill
ICloud
Gym Membership
Disney+
Weight Watchers
Entertainment (restaurant and alcohol)
Anti Virus software
Spotify
Audible
Amazon Prime

This category has increased by 11% since Biden took office:
Child Care (daycare)

These categories have increased by at least a few dollars a month:
Netflix
Directv

This category has increased by 15% since Biden took office:
Hunt Club (lease) dues


We are going to Aruba for 6 days in 2023. I noted recently, room prices are up approximately 60% since the time I made the budget for this trip in 2019. That was a smack in the face, but we'll grin and bear it and go regardless.


I believe our personal inflation, which includes some tightening in our house, is likely approx 10% total since Inauguration.

Quoted:


The government cannot afford high interest or inflation. Think of automatic raises built into small programs like SS. They will do everything possible to lower inflation until after SS COLA is announced. If they wait until after the election, they get second win. They can always adjust the CPI later and blame the Republicans.

Quoted:
The Fed doesn't know what the hell they are doing.
- Last year, the Fed said that inflation was only transitory (Fed Discount Rate was 0.25%).
- Now, they're saying inflation is a beast that must be slain by interest rates increased 1,500% or more (Fed Discount Rate today is 2.50% - more raises on the way).  

April 2021: Powell says inflation is only transitory
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/interest-rates-inflation-federal-reserve-transitory/

Quoted:
The Fed doesn't know what the hell they are doing.
- Last year, the Fed said that inflation was only transitory (Fed Discount Rate was 0.25%).
- Now, they're saying inflation is a beast that must be slain by interest rates increased 1,500% or more (Fed Discount Rate today is 2.50% - more raises on the way).  

April 2021: Powell says inflation is only transitory
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/interest-rates-inflation-federal-reserve-transitory/

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Preying on the misfortune of others is cool with you?

Quoted:
75 bps is certain. Wonder if Powell goes for 100.

*US Aug Consumer Prices +0.1%; Consensus -0.1%

*US Aug CPI Ex-Food & Energy +0.6%; Consensus +0.3%

*US Aug Consumer Prices Increase 8.3% From Year Earlier; Core CPI Up 6.3% Over Yearhttps://t.co/1RtiKOkAsc

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) September 13, 2022

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CD rates have been rising everyday. 3 month brokered CD's on Fidelity are now 3.05%

100bps has been the whisper number. Its coming. And so is a massive recession/depression.

Quoted:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-likely-hike-100-bps-180115275.html

100 points? Possible.

Quoted:


@Lou Daks

Terms are easy - no fees

A 6 month CD is 3.5% as of today.

Here it is: https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FILanding

Quoted:


Inflation is the way the government raises taxes, without raising "taxes."

They print money to flagrantly spend, inflating the money supply. This is the very definition of inflation. With every dollar they print, dollars you hold lose purchasing power. So prices rise to compensate as money becomes worth less.

Price inflation takes money out of your pocket just the way a tax does.

FJB is taxing America into a recession/depression by printing money. Its as simple as that.

Quoted:

The Fed got caught flat footed. They thought it would be like QE, where it wouldn't show up in consumer prices. Now they are behind the curve and the only way out is demand destruction. Even worse, more supply chain constraints will make inflation go higher.