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Posted: 5/28/2024 4:33:37 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: See that's where we come in at, the defense contractors that is. They're going to make a killing of off this. Same old story. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: No, not systems, ammo for said systems. Shiny toys are worthless without massive stockpiles of ammo and spare parts so they can keep shooting and stay in the fight. See that's where we come in at, the defense contractors that is. They're going to make a killing of off this. Same old story. Defense contractors make a pittance in profit margins compared most other industries, yes even during war. LockMart made 6billion additional revenue last year. Which is nice, but is weak percentagely compared to other industries. It's a myth that defense industry makes a killing off war. At best they're just a good "baseload" for your investment portfolio. |
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Posted: 5/28/2024 5:10:41 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I agree. Had Trump been re-elected (as he should have) in 2020 I don't think this would have happened but had it happened there would have been a much more drastically different course not only among the US response but here in GD. Every role would be reversed, more or less. We would all be Ukebros  Lol. Dude I consider myself a supporter of Ukraine. I actually admire Zelenskyy even. I think he was a bit of a clown that rose to the occasion when his people needed him. I 100% believe if he had taken the ride instead of asking for ammo that Biden offered, Ukraine would have fallen in days. When you post how Putin expected to be in Kiev in days, I think he underestimated Zelenskyy. But, IMO this war was avoidable 100%. Had the US shown strength and resolve from the beginning, instead of half assing it under democrats. |
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Posted: 5/28/2024 5:23:42 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted:  All the matters is what Putin believes Trump will do as President. Even the bill passed making it so the President cannot unilaterally pull out of NATO, but that "official document" doesn't stop the President from declining a legit Article 5. He can pull forces and funding out. Official means fuck all. The President can change policy instantly. Like Trumen did for the North Korean invasion into South Korea. Imperial Japan figured it would be a quick war with the US, because we wouldn't even send aid to Britain. Here we are in the same sort of environment where a country wanting to be with the EU and the West. The US has to go through long and agonizing debates for half a year; just to send lethal aid that won't involve a single dead American soldier or marine. You got a Presidential candidate making statements he won't even defend some NATO allies, and even cheer on the Russian invasion of said NATO countries. While at the same time lethal aid packages are hotly debated and dragged out as long as beaucracry can allow. So...a lot of words just to say you have zero cited quotes to the effect of what you claim has been said? Last I checked Trump's statements were Europe needed to start paying to defend themselves, a statement that has proven true to a massive degree. Now they are bent over with their pants around their ankles attempting to shame us into solving their problem that they laughed about. Small correction to your narrative here, debates are required for lethal aid AFTER $100 BILLION worth did not remotely seal the deal and Europe is pretty much Winchester on everything. That's a pretty significant detail that you left out, which has impacted decision making. So i'll ask again, do you have any statements explicitly stating what you claimed? Or is this just more of your expert analysis, with hyperbole and fear-mongering filling the large voids in your info? |
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Posted: 5/28/2024 5:53:58 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So...a lot of words just to say you have zero cited quotes to the effect of what you claim has been said? Last I checked Trump's statements were Europe needed to start paying to defend themselves, a statement that has proven true to a massive degree. Now they are bent over with their pants around their ankles attempting to shame us into solving their problem that they laughed about. So i'll ask again, do you have any statements explicitly stating what you claimed? Or is this just more of your expert analysis, with hyperbole and fear-mongering filling the large voids in your info? Again, treaties and carefully crafted policy means dick if the bad guys think or know that the US President has no desire or resolve to confront their aggression. The President is not shackled to any Official document or "signal" that he/she has to honor Article 5. Except if he/she is concerned with maintaining US credibility and ensuring deterrence. If I'm a Russian strategist, I see a ton of "signals" that says the US is not going to aid NATO if Russia attacks them. Just as well, Putin's invasion also demonstrated he's getting pretty bad counsel. So if Trump decided to turn into a Russia hawk, we'd still have blundered into WW3 because of the stupid signals we've been putting out in Congress and on the campaign trail. You can complain about Western Europe's MIC spending. But the truth is, we're just as guilty as them. We didn't have the industrial capability to defeat China in 2020, and we still don't. Withholding every bit of aid since 2022 would not have fixed that. |
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Posted: 5/28/2024 6:19:55 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Who posted that in this thread? Please quote it. Ok, 1 guy posted essentially that. After you both posted it. It's a shoe that fits plenty. I'm not going to track people down and demand they wear it. |
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Posted: 5/28/2024 6:22:32 PM EDT
[#6]
Have they started packing?
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Posted: 5/28/2024 6:43:38 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Again, treaties and carefully crafted policy means dick if the bad guys think or know that the US President has no desire or resolve to confront their aggression. The President is not shackled to any Official document or "signal" that he/she has to honor Article 5. Except if he/she is concerned with maintaining US credibility and ensuring deterrence. If I'm a Russian strategist, I see a ton of "signals" that says the US is not going to aid NATO if Russia attacks them. Just as well, Putin's invasion also demonstrated he's getting pretty bad counsel. So if Trump decided to turn into a Russia hawk, we'd still have blundered into WW3 because of the stupid signals we've been putting out in Congress and on the campaign trail. You can complain about Western Europe's MIC spending. But the truth is, we're just as guilty as them. We didn't have the industrial capability to defeat China in 2020, and we still don't. Withholding every bit of aid since 2022 would not have fixed that. You can go ahead and say Trump. There was a single "signal", when Trump said he might consider not adhering to article V if the country did not pay their 2%. Was that so hard to do, or did you really just not know? Notice there is a caveat to this statement, not just withholding article V just because. The Baltics actually met that requirement at the time of the statement, and have pushed to almost 3%. So that singular statement your entire opinion is hinging on never applied to them. It never did. Meanwhile we have rotational US units IN THE BALTICS since the start of the Ukraine war. Your claim is just as baseless as your overall understanding of this conflict. You are also legitimately trying to compare us to Europe and claim we're just as guilty? GTFO of here. The US invests 4 times the amount of its GPD than the EU, which is about 800 million more a year. The aid stopping isn't about conserving for China, it's that we finally realized that Europe hasn't done shit, doesn't plan do do shit, and we will still have to face China alone because Europe is even more useless now that their piddly operational militaries have been almost fully gutted. |
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Posted: 5/28/2024 6:45:23 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Lol. Dude I consider myself a supporter of Ukraine. I actually admire Zelenskyy even. I think he was a bit of a clown that rose to the occasion when his people needed him. I 100% believe if he had taken the ride instead of asking for ammo that Biden offered, Ukraine would have fallen in days. When you post how Putin expected to be in Kiev in days, I think he underestimated Zelenskyy. But, IMO this war was avoidable 100%. Had the US shown strength and resolve from the beginning, instead of half assing it under democrats. We are thinking alike  There's a million things Biden could have done to stop the war but he failed because he's so worried about "escalation" |
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Posted: 5/28/2024 6:47:48 PM EDT
[#9]
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Posted: 5/28/2024 7:08:47 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Cite me an official "signal" stating we would not support a NATO ally via article V if they were invaded. Biden already lost one son fighting in Ukraine, he wouldn’t want to lose another. |
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Posted: 5/28/2024 7:29:05 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You can go ahead and say Trump. There was a single "signal", when Trump said he might consider not adhering to article V if the country did not pay their 2%. Was that so hard to do, or did you really just not know? Notice there is a caveat to this statement, not just withholding article V just because. The Baltics actually met that requirement at the time of the statement, and have pushed to almost 3%. So that singular statement your entire opinion is hinging on never applied to them. It never did. Meanwhile we have rotational US units IN THE BALTICS since the start of the Ukraine war. Your claim is just as baseless as your overall understanding of this conflict. You are also legitimately trying to compare us to Europe and claim we're just as guilty? GTFO of here. The US invests 4 times the amount of its GPD than the EU, which is about 800 million more a year. The aid stopping isn't about conserving for China, it's that we finally realized that Europe hasn't done shit, doesn't plan do do shit, and we will still have to face China alone because Europe is even more useless now that their piddly operational militaries have been almost fully gutted. I understand it better than you do, it seems. Of course, you never come here to be a useful contributor; you only provide entertainment for yourself and others by arguing about every topic you find worth your time. You seem pretty miserable with your own existence, always being here looking for a fight. And then, when you get challenged, you pull the "I'm a SME!!!1!$%!" badge, hoping to instantly win the internet argument. LOL, please. That might work with a non-.mil here, but not with us. You willfully or obliviously ignore that others with military symbols under our usernames are fully capable of having connections and close ties with people serving in the Pentagon and other decision centers. But you are a person who always has to get the last word in. I value my time more than to keep arguing with you over this. Enjoy. |
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Posted: 5/28/2024 7:58:46 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I understand it better than you do, it seems. Of course, you never come here to be a useful contributor; you only provide entertainment for yourself and others by arguing about every topic you find worth your time. You seem pretty miserable with your own existence, always being here looking for a fight. Quote HistoryQuoted: I understand it better than you do, it seems. Of course, you never come here to be a useful contributor; you only provide entertainment for yourself and others by arguing about every topic you find worth your time. You seem pretty miserable with your own existence, always being here looking for a fight. Lol, I showed up and dropped some facts, and asked you to do the same. You declined. Everything past that is just whining because you were proven wrong. Quoted: You willfully or obliviously ignore that others with military symbols under our usernames are fully capable of having connections and close ties with people serving in the Pentagon and other decision centers. Unfortunately, you and I both know this statement does not represent you in any way. You are fueled solely by emotion, not personal intelligence and definitely not any inside information. |
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Posted: 5/28/2024 8:26:52 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We are thinking alike There's a million things Biden could have done to stop the war but he failed because he's so worried about "escalation" Agreed. |
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Posted: 5/28/2024 8:31:25 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: First of all, I am not an isolationist. Second, what you fail to realize that whenever we insert ourselves into a foreign war, it's the assholes running things that are in charge of our policy when we do. I think a case can be made that if the choices are 1- do something with Biden calling the shots and 2- do nothing, sometimes do nothing is the better choice for our interests. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: What you isolationists fail to recognize is that there's a place between Fuck everybody, and where we're at. I'm no more a fan of unlimited empire building than the next guy, but there's a degree of international cooperation somewhere between the two extremes The issues we've been having the past 60 years is that the assholes running things aren't in the business of making things better for us. The LAST thing they want to do is look out for our interests. Our problem is that the US is being run by effective communists. Under those assholes, nothing works. Isolationism isn't even a pipe dream under them, no matter how loudly you guys squall. First of all, I am not an isolationist. Second, what you fail to realize that whenever we insert ourselves into a foreign war, it's the assholes running things that are in charge of our policy when we do. I think a case can be made that if the choices are 1- do something with Biden calling the shots and 2- do nothing, sometimes do nothing is the better choice for our interests. |
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Posted: 5/28/2024 8:35:44 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Ah yes, the Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: It will be a good day when Russia is eliminated from planet Earth. Ah yes, the |
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Posted: 5/28/2024 8:38:14 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: All the matters is what Putin believes Trump will do as President. Even the bill passed making it so the President cannot unilaterally pull out of NATO, but that "official document" doesn't stop the President from declining a legit Article 5. He can pull forces and funding out. Official means fuck all. The President can change policy instantly. Like Trumen did for the North Korean invasion into South Korea. Imperial Japan figured it would be a quick war with the US, because we wouldn't even send aid to Britain. Here we are in the same sort of environment where a country wanting to be with the EU and the West. The US has to go through long and agonizing debates for half a year; just to send lethal aid that won't involve a single dead American soldier or marine. You got a Presidential candidate making statements he won't even defend some NATO allies, and even cheer on the Russian invasion of said NATO countries. While at the same time lethal aid packages are hotly debated and dragged out as long as beaucracry can allow. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Not when you have Presidential candidates throwing out signals that they aren't really on board with defending our treaty allies. "He didn't mean that!" Doesn't fly with dictators who take every statement pretty seriously and look for weaknesses in resolve of potential combatants. As we've made the mistake many times thinking Putin's statements shouldn't be taken seriously. He doesn't take campaign speeches as a joke either. Cite me an official "signal" stating we would not support a NATO ally via article V if they were invaded. All the matters is what Putin believes Trump will do as President. Even the bill passed making it so the President cannot unilaterally pull out of NATO, but that "official document" doesn't stop the President from declining a legit Article 5. He can pull forces and funding out. Official means fuck all. The President can change policy instantly. Like Trumen did for the North Korean invasion into South Korea. Imperial Japan figured it would be a quick war with the US, because we wouldn't even send aid to Britain. Here we are in the same sort of environment where a country wanting to be with the EU and the West. The US has to go through long and agonizing debates for half a year; just to send lethal aid that won't involve a single dead American soldier or marine. You got a Presidential candidate making statements he won't even defend some NATO allies, and even cheer on the Russian invasion of said NATO countries. While at the same time lethal aid packages are hotly debated and dragged out as long as beaucracry can allow. |
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Posted: 5/28/2024 8:39:39 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Sometimes, perhapd. But sometimes doing nothing is the worst thing you can do. Even incompetent aid can stall the fall long enough for the grownups to back behind the wheel. Again, if you were in charge, I would feel a lot better than what we do have. I have zero faith that Biden is acting in any way in the US intrests. Unfortunately, he is president. And I could site examples from his presidency that the best choice would have been to stay out of it. Right now, do you think it's in our and our allies best interests for the US to build a half assed floating pier off giaza to give aid to the animals that slaughtered Israelis on Oct 7th? You realize if you aren't for it, some may call you an isolationist, right? Doing something is better than minding our own business, right? |
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Posted: 5/28/2024 8:43:14 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If Ukraine invited NATO troops into western Ukraine, how would that make them "the aggressor"? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Article 5 only kicks in if a NATO country is attacked (and even then it isn't automatic). If a NATO country is the aggressor there's no Article 5 obligation on alliance members. If Ukraine invited NATO troops into western Ukraine, how would that make them "the aggressor"? |
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Posted: 5/28/2024 8:45:55 PM EDT
[#19]
What happens when they run out of ammo?
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Posted: 5/28/2024 8:49:31 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: My solution to this is to draw a line down the center of UKR, let the Russians have the east side and NATO the west side. NATO now has a buffer zone, Russia now has a buffer zone. Problem solved, where is my Nobel Peace Prize? No. You failed miserably. |
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Posted: 5/28/2024 8:50:16 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What happens when they run out of ammo? If nothing else, I hope this has the US military rethinking ammo stockpiles. |
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Posted: 5/28/2024 8:56:06 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If nothing else, I hope this has the US military rethinking ammo stockpiles. Yep. |
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Posted: 5/28/2024 9:07:44 PM EDT
[#23]
I see Poland getting involved in this. I think they decide to start fighting Russia in Ukraine before the Russian troops get to the Polish border. The Poles have zero interest to go back to Russian influence. Also it seems France wants to get involved in this as well with Macron saying he sees NATO troops in Ukraine by the end of the year.
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Posted: 5/28/2024 9:11:25 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If nothing else, I hope this has the US military rethinking ammo stockpiles. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: What happens when they run out of ammo? If nothing else, I hope this has the US military rethinking ammo stockpiles. We have had a cut in future ammo procurement numbers. |
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Posted: 5/28/2024 9:18:50 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Lol. Dude I consider myself a supporter of Ukraine. I actually admire Zelenskyy even. I think he was a bit of a clown that rose to the occasion when his people needed him. I 100% believe if he had taken the ride instead of asking for ammo that Biden offered, Ukraine would have fallen in days. When you post how Putin expected to be in Kiev in days, I think he underestimated Zelenskyy. But, IMO this war was avoidable 100%. Had the US shown strength and resolve from the beginning, instead of half assing it under democrats. It's interesting how Putin as such an astute student of history overlooked the lesson of Reagan. Reagan was an actor by training and trade, but stood taller against the USSR than any President since Kennedy. Granted, he had political speeches on record and time as California governor, but no experience in diplomacy or foreign relations at all. I agree with you that Zelensky really rose to the occasion, employing his acting skills to best effect, rallying his people and appealing to the global community for support. People that dis Zelensky underestimate just how important acting skills are to a national president; it's practically one of the very top requirements. |
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Posted: 5/28/2024 9:42:20 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So...a lot of words just to say you have zero cited quotes to the effect of what you claim has been said? Last I checked Trump's statements were Europe needed to start paying to defend themselves, a statement that has proven true to a massive degree. Now they are bent over with their pants around their ankles attempting to shame us into solving their problem that they laughed about. Small correction to your narrative here, debates are required for lethal aid AFTER $100 BILLION worth did not remotely seal the deal and Europe is pretty much Winchester on everything. That's a pretty significant detail that you left out, which has impacted decision making. So i'll ask again, do you have any statements explicitly stating what you claimed? Or is this just more of your expert analysis, with hyperbole and fear-mongering filling the large voids in your info? Quote HistoryQuoted: So...a lot of words just to say you have zero cited quotes to the effect of what you claim has been said? Last I checked Trump's statements were Europe needed to start paying to defend themselves, a statement that has proven true to a massive degree. Now they are bent over with their pants around their ankles attempting to shame us into solving their problem that they laughed about. Small correction to your narrative here, debates are required for lethal aid AFTER $100 BILLION worth did not remotely seal the deal and Europe is pretty much Winchester on everything. That's a pretty significant detail that you left out, which has impacted decision making. So i'll ask again, do you have any statements explicitly stating what you claimed? Or is this just more of your expert analysis, with hyperbole and fear-mongering filling the large voids in your info? I'm not really looking to step into this particular exchange but... Senior administration officials told The New York Times that several times over the course of 2018, Mr. Trump privately said he wanted to withdraw from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Current and former officials who support the alliance said they feared Mr. Trump could return to his threat as allied military spending continued to lag behind the goals the president had set. In the days around a tumultuous NATO summit meeting last summer, they said, Mr. Trump told his top national security officials that he did not see the point of the military alliance, which he presented as a drain on the United States. Someone said, “Sir!” Someone calls me Sir, that that shows me respect. He says, “would you leave us if we don’t pay our bills?” They hated my answer. I said, “Yeah, I would consider it.” They hated the answer Michael Powell. But if I said, “No, I won’t leave you. I promise you we will always protect you.” Then they will never pay their bills. So I said, “Yes, I will leave you.” You could see those checkbooks coming out for billions of dollars. They paid their bills. I think we will pick up in the next short while over $100 billion. Speaking at a campaign rally in South Carolina on Saturday, Trump recalled a possibly apocryphal conversation he claimed he had with “the president of a big country” in Europe. They were chatting, he said, about the failure of most European members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to pay their fair share of the alliance’s defense funding. “Well, sir, if we don’t pay, and we’re attacked by Russia, will you protect us?” the European leader supposedly asked. “I said; ‘You didn’t pay? You’re delinquent?’” “He said: ‘Yes. Let’s say that happened.’” “No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay. You gotta pay your bills.” Trump, who has a long history of not paying his own bills, has been at this game for some time. When he was campaigning for the presidency in 2016, he also threatened to pull military support for NATO allies shirking on defense spending. (NATO members are supposed to contribute 2% of their respective gross domestic products to defense. Most European countries — including Germany, France and Spain — don’t meet that goal.) Trump has also declined in the past to guarantee US support for Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which commits every NATO member to support another that is under attack. It’s worth remembering that the only time Article 5 has been invoked was after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the US. NATO vowed to help defend America, a bit of history Trump has forgotten or chooses to overlook. The US also enjoys extraordinary economic and diplomatic advantages from being the world’s military hegemon. So we have direct quotes of Trump himself saying explicitly he will NOT honor the Article 5 commitment for nations that don't meet the 2% goal. As recently as February this year, it was reported that only 11 NATO nations are meeting that goal. Those who don't include France (a nuclear power), Germany, Spain, Italy, Turkey, and our next-door neighbor Canada. We have bases in several of those, and Canada is our next-door neighbor. The idea that we would leave those nations hanging is laughable, but that's exactly what Trump threatened to do. [I also see that the would-be buffer states with Russia - Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Poland - all meet the 2% goal.] Also note that the Article 5 commitment is voluntary. It pledges nations to do what they consider to be appropriate to the situation and their ability. There is no legally binding requirement to fight or send troops. Since Congress responded to Trump's comments by requiring Congressional approval to withdraw from the treaty, a future President absolutely could look at situations and say like Biden did on Ukraine that a limited incursion is A-okay. It is NOT a sure thing that NATO commitments are as strong as they used to be. Yes, if that happened it would destroy NATO, and that is exactly what Putin (and Xi and Khameni and Kim) wants. If Russian and Chinese info ops and influence efforts can erode the NATO commitment of future US presidents (like Trump) they could fully achieve the global reordering that they are pushing for. We hope the DC establishment is solid on NATO, even if Trump is not. But there is doubt that wasn't there before. |
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Posted: 5/28/2024 9:46:08 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So we have direct quotes of Trump himself saying explicitly he will NOT honor the Article 5 commitment for nations that don't meet the 2% goal. Quote HistoryQuoted: So we have direct quotes of Trump himself saying explicitly he will NOT honor the Article 5 commitment for nations that don't meet the 2% goal. Neat. Exactly what I said. We were discussing the Baltics, who had been paying over 2% the entire time. So once again, it's a non-issue. If you rely on another country for 90% of your defense, you might want to pay that 2% if they state that's a requirement. Shit, if they say it's suddenly 3%, you'd probably better cough it up. I'm not seeing the concern here, except from countries who don't do anything for themselves and expect us to float the bill of course. Quoted: But there is doubt that wasn't there before. There sure is. It's not necessarily a bad thing.  Attached File |
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Posted: 5/28/2024 10:12:52 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It's interesting how Putin as such an astute student of history overlooked the lesson of Reagan. Reagan was an actor by training and trade, but stood taller against the USSR than any President since Kennedy. Granted, he had political speeches on record and time as California governor, but no experience in diplomacy or foreign relations at all. I agree with you that Zelensky really rose to the occasion, employing his acting skills to best effect, rallying his people and appealing to the global community for support. People that dis Zelensky underestimate just how important acting skills are to a national president; it's practically one of the very top requirements. Trump's experience in Show business and reputation helped him portray himself as a tough and no nonsense president "You're fired". I see a common theme. |
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Posted: 5/28/2024 10:13:37 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What happens when they run out of ammo? Since the aid package was approved by both parties it ain't happening
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Posted: 5/29/2024 1:15:30 AM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Lol. Dude I consider myself a supporter of Ukraine. I actually admire Zelenskyy even. I think he was a bit of a clown that rose to the occasion when his people needed him. I 100% believe if he had taken the ride instead of asking for ammo that Biden offered, Ukraine would have fallen in days. When you post how Putin expected to be in Kiev in days, I think he underestimated Zelenskyy. But, IMO this war was avoidable 100%. Had the US shown strength and resolve from the beginning, instead of half assing it under democrats. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I agree. Had Trump been re-elected (as he should have) in 2020 I don't think this would have happened but had it happened there would have been a much more drastically different course not only among the US response but here in GD. Every role would be reversed, more or less. We would all be Ukebros Lol. Dude I consider myself a supporter of Ukraine. I actually admire Zelenskyy even. I think he was a bit of a clown that rose to the occasion when his people needed him. I 100% believe if he had taken the ride instead of asking for ammo that Biden offered, Ukraine would have fallen in days. When you post how Putin expected to be in Kiev in days, I think he underestimated Zelenskyy. But, IMO this war was avoidable 100%. Had the US shown strength and resolve from the beginning, instead of half assing it under democrats. |
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Posted: 5/29/2024 3:49:47 AM EDT
[#31]
Leaving Croatia tomorrow just in time for the fireworks.
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Posted: 5/29/2024 7:08:56 AM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Article 5 only kicks in if a NATO country is attacked (and even then it isn't automatic). If a NATO country is the aggressor there's no Article 5 obligation on alliance members. What if they fail in Ukraine and Russia ends up in Poland? |
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Posted: 5/29/2024 7:13:02 AM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What if they fail in Ukraine and Russia ends up in Poland? I think if Russia were to invade Poland, whether it was an article 5 violation or not, we would have to use force to push Russia out of Poland. |
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Posted: 5/29/2024 7:32:54 AM EDT
[#34]
That would be a stupid move.
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Posted: 5/29/2024 7:49:56 AM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What happens when they run out of FIFY |
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Posted: 5/29/2024 7:51:35 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I see Poland getting involved in this. I think they decide to start fighting Russia in Ukraine before the Russian troops get to the Polish border. The Poles have zero interest to go back to Russian influence. Also it seems France wants to get involved in this as well with Macron saying he sees NATO troops in Ukraine by the end of the year. They are limiting their involvement to Western Ukraine. I don't think you are going to see Poles on the ground at the front. |
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Posted: 5/29/2024 7:51:56 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That would be a stupid move. Maybe to directly fight Russia. But to either guard the Ukrainian/Belarusian border, freeing Ukrainian troops to go fight. Or for training or logistic purposes. |
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Posted: 5/29/2024 8:31:25 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: No, not systems, ammo for said systems. Shiny toys are worthless without massive stockpiles of ammo and spare parts so they can keep shooting and stay in the fight. Besides us, who actually kept decent war footing stockpiles? Russia of course North Korea probably has the most shells per capita though China most likely Ours are pretty much tapped out and likely borrowed from our “war reserves” do not touch/loan/give away pile as well. Who actually has a world war production capacity to manufacture missiles, artillery shells and tubes? certainly not us. We have been boning Taiwan and Japan iirc on delivery of goods already paid for. Reminds me of NcMillan rifle stocks, sorry we fucked up your order but if you still want it you go to the back of the waiting list. |
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Posted: 5/29/2024 9:16:03 AM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What if they fail in Ukraine and Russia ends up in Poland? Its almost as if there are clear instructions on what will happen in this case. If Poland attacks Russia on behalf of a non-NATO country and Russia goes into Poland, Article V is not on the table. If Russia defeats Ukraine and ends up in Poland, Article V is invoked....and everything West of the Russian border that remotely resembles a CAL/DAL gets saturated in a massive deep fires shock and awe campaign to the point where the Baltics could mop up the remaining campaign army themselves. That's also why it won't happen. |
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Posted: 5/29/2024 9:20:46 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Besides us, who actually kept decent war footing stockpiles? Did we though? There were numbers that were developed over various means, but I guarantee that in almost no case those numbers were bought. And we are seeing those numbers were optimistically low, and why you are seeing an increasingly number of modern variants of weapons being transferred. |
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