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Just by virtue of us wanting it to happen, it won't happen. "Reality is often disappointing" and all that.
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Quoted: The older pic doesn’t seem to have those stitching issues. I thought over time imagery got better, not worse. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: As much as I'd love to see it fail, I doubt it will happen. I've seen plenty of google earth pictures that have extreme distortions due to image stitching issues. The older pic doesn’t seem to have those stitching issues. I thought over time imagery got better, not worse. I was just looking this up and the narrative is that it was stitching issues and that an updated google image disproved the first one. |
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Quoted: Not a solid concrete dam like Hoover Dam. It's an earth-filled concrete shell. And one of the problems is that during construction there were chambers that had been filled and the dirt compacted which had all the dirt wash away. Three Gorges has serious problems if water is getting into the structure and flowing through the dam to wash away the earthen fill. The structure is a gravity dam which depends on the weight of the dam to hold it in place. If fill material is washing away the dam is losing weight and can reach a point where high water behind the dam will overpower the force of gravity to keep the dam in place and the water in check. There are reports that indicate that "the dam is warping", which would indicate that part of the dam is unable to hold back the flood-swollen river, likely due to material loss. In essence a slow-motion collapse phase of the Three Gorges Dam has already started. How quickly will it move on to a full speed collapse is the question and can China take any action to stop the erosion of fill to prevent a dam collapse? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Biggest concrete dam in the world. A failure would be no joke. Not a solid concrete dam like Hoover Dam. It's an earth-filled concrete shell. And one of the problems is that during construction there were chambers that had been filled and the dirt compacted which had all the dirt wash away. Three Gorges has serious problems if water is getting into the structure and flowing through the dam to wash away the earthen fill. The structure is a gravity dam which depends on the weight of the dam to hold it in place. If fill material is washing away the dam is losing weight and can reach a point where high water behind the dam will overpower the force of gravity to keep the dam in place and the water in check. There are reports that indicate that "the dam is warping", which would indicate that part of the dam is unable to hold back the flood-swollen river, likely due to material loss. In essence a slow-motion collapse phase of the Three Gorges Dam has already started. How quickly will it move on to a full speed collapse is the question and can China take any action to stop the erosion of fill to prevent a dam collapse? Holy Fuck. What a clusterfuck. |
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I think the photos are just stitching / converted from non-absolute-vertical images.
Bing map link: https://www.bing.com/maps?osid=91d72ee0-0526-4f6c-aeda-a8415f29ca40&cp=30.822636~110.998075&lvl=16&style=h&v=2&sV=2&form=S00027 A few miles to the north west there is this goofy/fucked up looking bridge: https://www.bing.com/maps?osid=40e053e3-c39d-423a-a624-222a6c098a9b&cp=30.885203~110.839315&lvl=18&style=h&v=2&sV=2&form=S00027 There are a lot of reasons to poke fun at the chinasshoes about their crappy engineering, but I don't think these photos are proof of anything. |
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Quoted: As much as I'd love to see it fail, I doubt it will happen. I've seen plenty of google earth pictures that have extreme distortions due to image stitching issues. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes |
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Quoted: Could be new pic is 3dish? I've found some of the older GE stuff like bridges were just a aerial pic and look normal. When they started 3d'ing everything there was a lot of strange anomalies with bridges. To me there's some anomalish look in that newer pic. Not trying to be contrarian, just interested. If it has moved that much, they're fucked. It's chinesium so they're probably fucked anyway. It also seems to skinny and long to do the dam job. My honest hope though is that it holds. Fuck china but there are too many regular folks that have no choice in there commie gov't and there living shitsuation that'll be steamrolled. Plus they'll probably blame it on the USA somehow. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: As much as I'd love to see it fail, I doubt it will happen. I've seen plenty of google earth pictures that have extreme distortions due to image stitching issues. The older pic doesn’t seem to have those stitching issues. I thought over time imagery got better, not worse. Could be new pic is 3dish? I've found some of the older GE stuff like bridges were just a aerial pic and look normal. When they started 3d'ing everything there was a lot of strange anomalies with bridges. To me there's some anomalish look in that newer pic. Not trying to be contrarian, just interested. If it has moved that much, they're fucked. It's chinesium so they're probably fucked anyway. It also seems to skinny and long to do the dam job. My honest hope though is that it holds. Fuck china but there are too many regular folks that have no choice in there commie gov't and there living shitsuation that'll be steamrolled. Plus they'll probably blame it on the USA somehow. Personally, I don't see how it could move that much without breaking. |
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Quoted: There has been something like a tenfold increase of earthquakes in the area of the dam since it was built. It was also built on or very near a known fault line. Everything about it would convince me to pack up and move to much higher ground if I were downstream. View Quote They pretty much instantly loaded a small spot of the crust with a bunch of new weight. Things adjust. The ground isn't anywhere near as solid in most places as people think. The east coast of the US is pretty solid, one big slab of granite from Maine to Alabama, that's why earthquakes are rare but the energy travels very efficiently. A 4.7 ish quake in Virginia was felt from Vermont to Georgia. Living under a Chinese built dam is not my idea of a good idea, regardless of the local geology. |
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Three Gorges might be the biggest dam in the world but the reservoir behind it is "only" the 27th largest by volume. It's slightly bigger than Lake Mead behind Hoover. Still a very bad thing if it lets go, but the downstream population density is what makes this different from the other large dams.
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Quoted: Three Gorges might be the biggest dam in the world but the reservoir behind it is "only" the 27th largest by volume. It's slightly bigger than Lake Mead behind Hoover. Still a very bad thing if it lets go, but the downstream population density is what makes this different from the other large dams. View Quote Hoover Dam is also part of a system including Davis Dam, Glen Canyon Dam, and Parker Dam. |
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Quoted: Three Gorges might be the biggest dam in the world but the reservoir behind it is "only" the 27th largest by volume. It's slightly bigger than Lake Mead behind Hoover. Still a very bad thing if it lets go, but the downstream population density is what makes this different from the other large dams. View Quote That was my thinking. 40 km3 is a lot of water to be sure, but following the downstream path I don't see 200 million dead. Youd lose a lot of energy and flow into dongting lake and surrounding areas. By the time the flow hits Shanghai I'm not seeing massive energy. Might do poetic damage to Wuhan. Death toll seems high to me, but I'm not very knowledgeable on hydrology or population densities in China |
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Quoted: Any idea what they’re for? If I had to guess without looking for more pics etc (and assuming it’s not the worlds worst choice for power line runs), I’d say they were a deterrent for incoming aircraft or missiles. Kind of like the cages around some tanks and apcs that cause RPGs to detonate early, before they make contact with the armored hull. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Why do people think the cables are structural? https://cdn.britannica.com/20/119620-050-AC901996/Yichang-Three-Gorges-Dam-Yangtze-River-China.jpg Any idea what they’re for? If I had to guess without looking for more pics etc (and assuming it’s not the worlds worst choice for power line runs), I’d say they were a deterrent for incoming aircraft or missiles. Kind of like the cages around some tanks and apcs that cause RPGs to detonate early, before they make contact with the armored hull. They look like electrical to me, being a dam and all... |
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Quoted: Wow, if that goes, it will be a massive black eye to China, both internally and globally. Of course this would mean they'd need to flex and Taiwan is likely the target for that distraction. View Quote |
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Quoted: Any idea what they’re for? If I had to guess without looking for more pics etc (and assuming it’s not the worlds worst choice for power line runs), I’d say they were a deterrent for incoming aircraft or missiles. Kind of like the cages around some tanks and apcs that cause RPGs to detonate early, before they make contact with the armored hull. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Why do people think the cables are structural? https://cdn.britannica.com/20/119620-050-AC901996/Yichang-Three-Gorges-Dam-Yangtze-River-China.jpg Any idea what they’re for? If I had to guess without looking for more pics etc (and assuming it’s not the worlds worst choice for power line runs), I’d say they were a deterrent for incoming aircraft or missiles. Kind of like the cages around some tanks and apcs that cause RPGs to detonate early, before they make contact with the armored hull. Those look like power lines. Running them up to the dam would balance the weight of the wires from the generators to the power poles. |
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Quoted: The comparison of the satellite photos a while ago and more recently shows exactly what you'd expect - the blocks are shifting independently from each other. View Quote Heh the official government response is "it's ok... it only shifts a few millimeters". Yeah , a few millimeters - if you printed out the satellite photo on a 3x5 card, maybe... |
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Anyone find a flood simulation in the event of the dam failing?
My Google-Foo is weak... |
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Quoted: https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/137019/259b5f67f6608b54a7bb1406003d46a9_jpg-1475143.JPG View Quote I'll admit it - I laughed! |
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Quoted: Hmm... thinking of what they have programmed into their ICBMs: DC Baltimore Boston Chicago Detroit Denver Seattle San Francisco LA Might be a net win overall. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: if the Three Gorges dam failed, the Chinese government would lie and say the US dropped a PGM from a stealth bomber to make it fail. They'd turn their population against us. Win-win-win-win for CCP; they get to shift blame, make their population hate us more, have an excuse to cut the US off from electronic goods made there, and have a cover story casus belli for war against the USA. I doubt it, but they might use the event to point a finger at Taiwanese or Hong Kong "counter-revolutionaries" or other similar nonsense. They wouldn't risk a nuclear war to have a go at us. They would if they thought the US govt lacked the political will to send or receive nuclear weapons. Hmm... thinking of what they have programmed into their ICBMs: DC Baltimore Boston Chicago Detroit Denver Seattle San Francisco LA Might be a net win overall. So does Russia. If Hillary had won, we would already have a 90% reduction in USA Liberals. |
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Those cables are definitely for power transmission. That thing has 32 main turbines, and each one is essentially independent.
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Crazy thing about China is, this is FAR from their only ticking time bomb with rivers. They have been building up levees along their riverbanks for centuries, the vast majority of which was put in place before any real engineering knowledge on these things could be brought to bear. Most of their big rivers on a topo map look completely 'backwards' compared to what you'd expect to see. Of course, they did this because floods used to kill hundreds of thousands, if not millions, back in the day...so they had their reasons. In any case, the dirty little secret is that this makes them incredibly vulnerable to their strategic adversaries if things actually went hot. You wouldn't need to target a single military base, city, or other traditional target...if you jacked up their dams/levees you'd annihilate that country probably nearly as bad as if you'd used nukes. They are basically sitting on a giant mother-of-all natural disasters, and their opponents have the switch to kick them off.
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Quoted: Yeah, I think it's not a question of "if" anymore. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Yeah, I think it's not a question of "if" anymore. What are you seeing in that picture? I see the 2019 image is zoomed in more, but the banks look identical. The water doesn't look higher than it did 10 years ago. |
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Quoted: China considers an attack on the dam a strategic attack and worthy of a nuclear retaliatory attack. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: great target if things ever go hot. Destroy the dam, let gravity do the rest of the work. China considers an attack on the dam a strategic attack and worthy of a nuclear retaliatory attack. Which is the only way they could justify building it in the first place. If they lacked nukes it'd be more threat than benefit. |
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Quoted: Eventually the pressure is probably going to undermine the foundation.....:: then the fun begins View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: What a total piece of garbage that construction is. It's individual linked concrete blocks. It's not anchored to the bedrock in any way - just resting on it. The comparison of the satellite photos a while ago and more recently shows exactly what you'd expect - the blocks are shifting independently from each other. Eventually the pressure is probably going to undermine the foundation.....:: then the fun begins The weight is so massive, it compares to the bedrock. |
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Quoted: I have seen a bunch of dams and I have never seen restraining cables on any of them. That said, I'm not willing to say that those are restraining cables. BTW, there are no cables capable of restraining the mass of the dam and the water behind it. It is impossible. The mass is bigly. View Quote Looks like transmission lines to me. Been around a fair amount of hydrostatic for work and a lot of them are set up that way. Looks like strain insulators near where they attach to the dam. |
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Quoted: No. A large conventional explosion, a few feet below the water surface next to the upstream side of the dam, would do it. Dams are not designed to withstand explosions. It is not their function. They are designed to withstand static hydraulic forces, and in seismic zones they are designed to withstand EQ forces. Neither of these mimic explosions. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: IIRC it'd take nothing less than a hydrogen bomb to crack it. No. A large conventional explosion, a few feet below the water surface next to the upstream side of the dam, would do it. Dams are not designed to withstand explosions. It is not their function. They are designed to withstand static hydraulic forces, and in seismic zones they are designed to withstand EQ forces. Neither of these mimic explosions. My understanding was this one was, for strategic reasons. If a single conventional explosion could annihilate the modern Chinese state, that's not good. If nothing else, terrorists will eventually get a bomb there. |
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Quoted: Shipping Locks north of the dam. https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/1147/locks_png-1474870.JPG View Quote Woah, the ships are bent, too! |
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Quoted: I have seen a bunch of dams and I have never seen restraining cables on any of them. That said, I'm not willing to say that those are restraining cables. BTW, there are no cables capable of restraining the mass of the dam and the water behind it. It is impossible. The mass is bigly. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Is any other dam in the world using cables externally as a structural component? I have seen a bunch of dams and I have never seen restraining cables on any of them. That said, I'm not willing to say that those are restraining cables. BTW, there are no cables capable of restraining the mass of the dam and the water behind it. It is impossible. The mass is bigly. The only thing a tension cable could be good for is measuring strain. But you don't need big cables for that. We'd see obvious cracks from space if it was moving that much. Hell, our spy sats can probably see the existing cracks & keep tabs on them. If the dam was failing we'd be happily helping to fix it right now. Same as the Mosul dam (which actually is failing) |
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Quoted: My understanding was this one was, for strategic reasons. If a single conventional explosion could annihilate the modern Chinese state, that's not good. If nothing else, terrorists will eventually get a bomb there. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: IIRC it'd take nothing less than a hydrogen bomb to crack it. No. A large conventional explosion, a few feet below the water surface next to the upstream side of the dam, would do it. Dams are not designed to withstand explosions. It is not their function. They are designed to withstand static hydraulic forces, and in seismic zones they are designed to withstand EQ forces. Neither of these mimic explosions. My understanding was this one was, for strategic reasons. If a single conventional explosion could annihilate the modern Chinese state, that's not good. If nothing else, terrorists will eventually get a bomb there. They might have said "Build it to withstand explosions" but now that it's actually built and they're scared of a good flood knocking it down, I'm thinking small bomb would do the trick |
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Quoted: User name is appropriate, they strung wires on the off chance an incoming missile hit one? Or an aircraft decided not to drop a bomb or missile but fly in kamikaze style? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Any idea what they’re for? If I had to guess without looking for more pics etc (and assuming it’s not the worlds worst choice for power line runs), I’d say they were a deterrent for incoming aircraft or missiles. Kind of like the cages around some tanks and apcs that cause RPGs to detonate early, before they make contact with the armored hull. User name is appropriate, they strung wires on the off chance an incoming missile hit one? Or an aircraft decided not to drop a bomb or missile but fly in kamikaze style? Who wouldn't fly a jet into the thing if it meant a deathblow for the most evil regime ever seen on Earth? I should hope China has plenty of countermeasures. |
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Quoted: In the late 50's/early 60's the Chinese built the damn on the Tigris River above Mosul, Iraq. Iraq has spent the last 20 years trying to stabilize it. View Quote I thought it was Italian? Anyway, China has somewhat upped its game since the 1950s. TGD was a pretty insane project; we'd have a tough time making a dam to do what it does, too. |
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Quoted: He's an expatriate and lives in Germany. Interview was with Radio France. Been a vocal critic of the Chinese for years. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: since that scientist is still alive and/or not in police custody, there probably isn't a problem. He's an expatriate and lives in Germany. Interview was with Radio France. Been a vocal critic of the Chinese for years. He'll be a hero to Taiwanese the way Stalin is to Georgians |
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Ok, I just got caught up on the thread.
People are really thinking a concrete dam would bend like what's shown in those pictures??? I mean, it's obviously distorted like most satellite imagery is, but FFS, people really believed a concrete dam bent that much? I'm losing faith in you guys. Holy shit. |
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That looks like a stiching issue, nothing more. No way it moved that much without major cracking.
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Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: if the Three Gorges dam failed, the Chinese government would lie and say the US dropped a PGM from a stealth bomber to make it fail. They'd turn their population against us. Win-win-win-win for CCP; they get to shift blame, make their population hate us more, have an excuse to cut the US off from electronic goods made there, and have a cover story casus belli for war against the USA. I doubt it, but they might use the event to point a finger at Taiwanese or Hong Kong "counter-revolutionaries" or other similar nonsense. They wouldn't risk a nuclear war to have a go at us. They would if they thought the US govt lacked the political will to send or receive nuclear weapons. Hmm... thinking of what they have programmed into their ICBMs: DC Baltimore Boston Chicago Detroit Denver Seattle San Francisco LA Might be a net win overall. Someone should write a paper on that. Nate Silver's Post-Nuclear-Holocaust Electoral Predictions |
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Quoted: Same thing happens when glaciers melt. The earth actually rebounds due to the loss of mass over it. They pretty much instantly loaded a small spot of the crust with a bunch of new weight. Things adjust. The ground isn't anywhere near as solid in most places as people think. The east coast of the US is pretty solid, one big slab of granite from Maine to Alabama, that's why earthquakes are rare but the energy travels very efficiently. A 4.7 ish quake in Virginia was felt from Vermont to Georgia. Living under a Chinese built dam is not my idea of a good idea, regardless of the local geology. View Quote The ground around the great lakes is still rebounding from the ice age IIRC. |
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Quoted: Ok, I just got caught up on the thread. People are really thinking a concrete dam would bend like what's shown in those pictures??? I mean, it's obviously distorted like most satellite imagery is, but FFS, people really believed a concrete dam bent that much? I'm losing faith in you guys. Holy shit. View Quote Same. |
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Quoted: Biggest concrete dam in the world. A failure would be no joke. View Quote i dont think there is any one catastrophe in the us, with the exception of the a yellowstone blow or perhaps a new madrid earthquake to equal the one in the 1800s or perhaps a mag 10 quake in california, that would be as devastating. a full blow of yellowstone is probably the only thing that comes close (and exceeds) the failure of the dam. in reality as bad or worse than a massive nuclear strike on the area below the damn and thats a huge area. some details here... |
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Quoted: Quoted: Ok, I just got caught up on the thread. People are really thinking a concrete dam would bend like what's shown in those pictures??? I mean, it's obviously distorted like most satellite imagery is, but FFS, people really believed a concrete dam bent that much? I'm losing faith in you guys. Holy shit. Same. Same. Jesus guys. |
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Quoted: we'd have a tough time making a dam to do what it does, too. View Quote |
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Quoted: Ok, I just got caught up on the thread. People are really thinking a concrete dam would bend like what's shown in those pictures??? I mean, it's obviously distorted like most satellite imagery is, but FFS, people really believed a concrete dam bent that much? I'm losing faith in you guys. Holy shit. View Quote Yeah, no way that picture is accurate. |
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Quoted: i dont think there is any one catastrophe in the us, with the exception of the a yellowstone blow or perhaps a new madrid earthquake to equal the one in the 1800s or perhaps a mag 10 quake in california, that would be as devastating. a full blow of yellowstone is probably the only thing that comes close (and exceeds) the failure of the dam. in reality as bad or worse than a massive nuclear strike on the area below the damn and thats a huge area. some details here... View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Biggest concrete dam in the world. A failure would be no joke. i dont think there is any one catastrophe in the us, with the exception of the a yellowstone blow or perhaps a new madrid earthquake to equal the one in the 1800s or perhaps a mag 10 quake in california, that would be as devastating. a full blow of yellowstone is probably the only thing that comes close (and exceeds) the failure of the dam. in reality as bad or worse than a massive nuclear strike on the area below the damn and thats a huge area. some details here... If thats the case their national security depends on some mud filled concrete blocks. 400000000 people live in the downstream. We've been popping those things since ww2. |
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Quoted: And now caught up and.... Same. Jesus guys. View Quote I'm not believing it has bowed like the images have shown. We all know the dam would have been toast right now if that was real. It is the massive amounts of rainfall coupled with the report of substandard construction that has me keeping an eye on it. "Rather than commenting on the validity of the images showing the dam's warping a year ago, Wang said a more serious concern is the cracks and substandard concrete discovered during its construction." That I can believe |
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Yeah those pictures are BS.
I don't doubt that the dam has issues but I don't see it failing any time soon either. |
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