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Quoted: MoM increased, which means it isn’t cooling off even with increased Fed fund rates. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: So no inflation? Technically, there is no inflation of inflation. Month to Month vs Year over Year. Prices didn't go up meaningfully compared to last month but are still high relative to this time last year. I think everyone was hoping that prices would actually go down, not just stay basically level thus the market's disappointment. MoM was 0.1% from what I can see which is why I see "didn't go up meaningfully". In the period between February 2022 and June 2022 it was going up anywhere between 0.3% to 1.3% per month with most of the months being on the higher end of that range. To say it isn't cooling off (by their methodology) even with increased Fed fund rates is probably the wrong conclusion. The market was hoping for -0.1% and we got 0.1%. Obviously not what people wanted but it's still nothing like February through June. Attached File |
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Biden can (correctly, i think) say that inflation was "0%" again now for last Month:
https://www.bls.gov/regions/mid-atlantic/data/consumerpriceindexhistorical_us_table.htm June 296.311 July 296.276 August 296.171 |
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Quoted: MoM was 0.1% from what I can see which is why I see "didn't go up meaningfully". In the period between February 2022 and June 2022 it was going up anywhere between 0.3% to 1.3% per month with most of the months being on the higher end of that range. To say it isn't cooling off (by their methodology) even with increased Fed fund rates is probably the wrong conclusion. The market was hoping for -0.1% and we got 0.1%. Obviously not what people wanted but it's still nothing like February through June. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/178958/Capture_JPG-2524581.JPG View Quote Very true, the rate increases are doing the damage, but deflation has to occur. It’s not yet. Powell needs to increase by 1-2% not 0.75%. |
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Quoted: Nobody was stupid enough to think that prices would go down. Maybe they were hopeful that the rate of increase would slow but lower prices are a fucking pipe dream. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Month to Month vs Year over Year. Prices didn't go up meaningfully compared to last month but are still high relative to this time last year. I think everyone was hoping that prices would actually go down, not just stay basically level thus the market's disappointment. Nobody was stupid enough to think that prices would go down. Maybe they were hopeful that the rate of increase would slow but lower prices are a fucking pipe dream. Well somebody was because the consensus estimate was -0.1% MoM. |
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Quoted: I still don't believe it's only 8.3%. My personal costs are up over 10%. We got a list of vendor price increases at work and they were averaging around 15% View Quote 8.3 represents the rate of increase, not the current price. Take steaks for example. They are about 50% higher than they were (x) months ago. So is inflation 50%? No, the current price represents x% inflation over xtime. |
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Quoted: Falling gas prices helped "pad" the overall number but the Core CPI which is one of the metrics the Fed heavily watches rose more than the headline number they announced. They did an immediate 11 basis point spike after the meeting this morning ended and there is still an anticipated 75 point hike coming at the next meeting. So we're looking at at least 86 points upcoming to Fed rates with another 75 points being forecasted towards the end of year meeting in November. Gonna be shaky for a little while longer and while people feel the "immediate effect" of falling gas prices overall inflation is still rising and the economy is on shaky ground alongside most of the rest of the world currently. View Quote Gas prices are artificially deflated because of SPR releases. I anticipate they will reverse that flow after mid-terms. |
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Quoted: MoM was 0.1% from what I can see which is why I see "didn't go up meaningfully". In the period between February 2022 and June 2022 it was going up anywhere between 0.3% to 1.3% per month with most of the months being on the higher end of that range. To say it isn't cooling off (by their methodology) even with increased Fed fund rates is probably the wrong conclusion. The market was hoping for -0.1% and we got 0.1%. Obviously not what people wanted but it's still nothing like February through June. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/178958/Capture_JPG-2524581.JPG View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: So no inflation? Technically, there is no inflation of inflation. Month to Month vs Year over Year. Prices didn't go up meaningfully compared to last month but are still high relative to this time last year. I think everyone was hoping that prices would actually go down, not just stay basically level thus the market's disappointment. MoM was 0.1% from what I can see which is why I see "didn't go up meaningfully". In the period between February 2022 and June 2022 it was going up anywhere between 0.3% to 1.3% per month with most of the months being on the higher end of that range. To say it isn't cooling off (by their methodology) even with increased Fed fund rates is probably the wrong conclusion. The market was hoping for -0.1% and we got 0.1%. Obviously not what people wanted but it's still nothing like February through June. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/178958/Capture_JPG-2524581.JPG ETA: Pic from Twitter. Attached File |
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CPI is a garbage number! I don't know of more than a handful of items NOT up a minimum of 20% since Poopy Pants took office. Most is up at least 50 percent. To make matters worse, our local sales tax just got bumped. As though the increase from inflation itself wasn't enough!
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Quoted: Very true, the rate increases are doing the damage, but deflation has to occur. It’s not yet. Powell needs to increase by 1-2% not 0.75%. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: MoM was 0.1% from what I can see which is why I see "didn't go up meaningfully". In the period between February 2022 and June 2022 it was going up anywhere between 0.3% to 1.3% per month with most of the months being on the higher end of that range. To say it isn't cooling off (by their methodology) even with increased Fed fund rates is probably the wrong conclusion. The market was hoping for -0.1% and we got 0.1%. Obviously not what people wanted but it's still nothing like February through June. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/178958/Capture_JPG-2524581.JPG Very true, the rate increases are doing the damage, but deflation has to occur. It’s not yet. Powell needs to increase by 1-2% not 0.75%. I have no doubt that the Federal Reserve won't let up until they get the recession they have clearly indicated they are shooting for. I don't know if it really matters if he goes 1%-2% now or gets there over time with a few lessor increases. Either way, the weight of higher interest rates is going to kick eventually as long as they don't let up. Perhaps the big X factor is the degree to which our government "fights the Fed" by increasing spending to resist the very recession that the Fed is trying to create. You'd think those two parties would be talking but the student loan forgiveness measure at a time when we are trying to dry up excess liquidity tells me that they aren't exactly on the same page. I'm finding it funny that we are trying to fight inflation in one breath and discussing debt relief, rent control, rent support in the other breath. The fundamental mechanism of fighting inflation is inflicting financial pain on people so they draw back from spending. There's no such thing as pain without the discomfort. |
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We need to look more at pre brandon costs on routine expense Gas is still over a dollar a gallon higher, and groceries are hitting fifty percent or more. What has his ass in the White House costed everyone?
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Quoted: Core CPI was up 0.6% MoM. That’s the bigger problem. ETA: Pic from Twitter. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/200878/4345A9E4-5B17-4A86-8B2F-F2C22FACA8AE_jpe-2524587.JPG View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: So no inflation? Technically, there is no inflation of inflation. Month to Month vs Year over Year. Prices didn't go up meaningfully compared to last month but are still high relative to this time last year. I think everyone was hoping that prices would actually go down, not just stay basically level thus the market's disappointment. MoM was 0.1% from what I can see which is why I see "didn't go up meaningfully". In the period between February 2022 and June 2022 it was going up anywhere between 0.3% to 1.3% per month with most of the months being on the higher end of that range. To say it isn't cooling off (by their methodology) even with increased Fed fund rates is probably the wrong conclusion. The market was hoping for -0.1% and we got 0.1%. Obviously not what people wanted but it's still nothing like February through June. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/178958/Capture_JPG-2524581.JPG ETA: Pic from Twitter. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/200878/4345A9E4-5B17-4A86-8B2F-F2C22FACA8AE_jpe-2524587.JPG I call BS on food, Subway still has the $5 footlong! |
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Thank god the fed is raising rates.
It’s starting to curb my demand for food and fuel…..oh wait. |
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Quoted: I call BS on food, Subway still has the $5 footlong! View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: So no inflation? Technically, there is no inflation of inflation. Month to Month vs Year over Year. Prices didn't go up meaningfully compared to last month but are still high relative to this time last year. I think everyone was hoping that prices would actually go down, not just stay basically level thus the market's disappointment. MoM was 0.1% from what I can see which is why I see "didn't go up meaningfully". In the period between February 2022 and June 2022 it was going up anywhere between 0.3% to 1.3% per month with most of the months being on the higher end of that range. To say it isn't cooling off (by their methodology) even with increased Fed fund rates is probably the wrong conclusion. The market was hoping for -0.1% and we got 0.1%. Obviously not what people wanted but it's still nothing like February through June. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/178958/Capture_JPG-2524581.JPG ETA: Pic from Twitter. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/200878/4345A9E4-5B17-4A86-8B2F-F2C22FACA8AE_jpe-2524587.JPG I call BS on food, Subway still has the $5 footlong! https://www.foodandwine.com/news/little-caesars-hot-ready-pizza-price-increase |
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Quoted: I have no doubt that the Federal Reserve won't let up until they get the recession they have clearly indicated they are shooting for. I don't know if it really matters if he goes 1%-2% now or gets there over time with a few lessor increases. Either way, the weight of higher interest rates is going to kick eventually as long as they don't let up. Perhaps the big X factor is the degree to which our government "fights the Fed" by increasing spending to resist the very recession that the Fed is trying to create. You'd think those two parties would be talking but the student loan forgiveness measure at a time when we are trying to dry up excess liquidity tells me that they aren't exactly on the same page. I'm finding it funny that we are trying to fight inflation in one breath and discussing debt relief, rent control, rent support in the other breath. The fundamental mechanism of fighting inflation is inflicting financial pain on people so they draw back from spending. There's no such thing as pain without the discomfort. View Quote Gotta play lip service for votes, give a bone, but the macro Fed always wins. Pain must flow. Putting bandaids on an open fracture. |
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Quoted: Gas prices are artificially deflated because of SPR releases. I anticipate they will reverse that flow after mid-terms. View Quote The Fed knows this and doesn't take the gas price very much into account when deciding on rate hikes. It's highly "controllable" to an extent at least for a short period of time. |
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Quoted: I still don't believe it's only 8.3%. My personal costs are up over 10%. We got a list of vendor price increases at work and they were averaging around 15% View Quote Not everything is included in the CPI. Also the government has done some fuckery with what is included, since I think the Carter admin. In other words, what was originally intended to be included in CPI, is not or it’s bastardized. |
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The government has so much debt now that it probably can’t afford to meaningfully raise interest rates.
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There’s nothing we’ve purchased that has only gone up 8.3%. We’re at 20%-25% plus, easily.
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The Fed gives two shits about inflation. If they did, they wouldn't have let it get this high.
Again, this is going to be EPIC and it is going to effect every corner of the world. This will not end quickly. It will be very painful. Ultimately there will be wars and shifts in the balance of power around the globe. If you work in the energy, food and medical sectors you will weather the storm. Even better so if you debt is low and what debt you do have is at low interest rates. Small business is going to get hammered unless they are in middle America and in states where energy, food and medical is the predominate industries. Wait until wages start to fall, but food and energy (all forms) is still rising. Your home values will hold to go down slightly slightly depending on your location and industries in that area. Your rent is going to continue to go up no matter where you're at. Fun times. The bitching and blaming is going to be non stop. .GOV will attempt to make it about class. Eventually the classes will turn towards the .GOV and change will happen. It will take years. |
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Quoted: I have no doubt that the Federal Reserve won't let up until they get the recession they have clearly indicated they are shooting for. I don't know if it really matters if he goes 1%-2% now or gets there over time with a few lessor increases. Either way, the weight of higher interest rates is going to kick eventually as long as they don't let up. Perhaps the big X factor is the degree to which our government "fights the Fed" by increasing spending to resist the very recession that the Fed is trying to create. You'd think those two parties would be talking but the student loan forgiveness measure at a time when we are trying to dry up excess liquidity tells me that they aren't exactly on the same page. I'm finding it funny that we are trying to fight inflation in one breath and discussing debt relief, rent control, rent support in the other breath. The fundamental mechanism of fighting inflation is inflicting financial pain on people so they draw back from spending. There's no such thing as pain without the discomfort. View Quote The problem is that Potato, Yelling, et al. will be blaming everything on the Fed and not their spending. And there are more than enough idiots to believe it. The FR should have started sooner but inflation was only transitory. |
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Quoted: 8.3 represents the rate of increase, not the current price. Take steaks for example. They are about 50% higher than they were (x) months ago. So is inflation 50%? No, the current price represents x% inflation over xtime. View Quote Our leaders are so compassionate! To compensate for those steak prices, our leaders are dropping prices on our bug and worm rations. It's all part of the social re-engineering plan. |
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Quoted: There’s nothing we’ve purchased that has only gone up 8.3%. We’re at 20%-25% plus, easily. View Quote I keep seeing folks on ARFCOM write this. My family keeps an extremely detailed budget spreadsheet, and we enter each receipt on a tracking spreadsheet. At the beginning of the biden administration our grocery budget for a family of 5 was $1,085 / month. grocery budget for us includes: Food, Clothing, Household filters (HVAC and Water), community youth sports fees, along with stuff like deoderant, new toothbrushes, diapers, new shoes, etc. Today, our budget is $1,185 a month. We have had to do some tightening, pushed up against the monthly limit more often, etc. It is harder for us to shop and keep under the $1,185 budget today, than keeping under the $1,085 budget was 2 years ago. but our kids are older, in more sports, growing like weed etc. I certainly do not believe we have had 20% inflation and been able to maintain this budget. But this data point knowing how detailed I track this stuff, ALONG with the Arfcom general response of "LIAR!!" In august 2022 when Biden said "Month to Month inflation this month was Zero" when my own vehicle gasoline bill at 140 Gallons / Month for my family decreased by over $200 from July to August (without a $200 increase in my grocery bill from July to August) makes me seriously question the validity of any posted claims here about inflation rates. I believe at least many of these claims are not informed by hard data that is objectively tracked from month to month. I mean on this same forum we have posters who claim their federal tax rate was 40%, on a $200K income. Edit to add: We have added $0 to these categories in our monthly/annual budget since Biden took office: Mortgage Electric (actually went down by $6 a month when i updated the last 12 months rolling average a few months ago) Trash pickup Car Insurance (decreased by $95 a month changing to GEICO for the same coverage 2 months ago) Healthcare Tolls plus Parking Alarm System Monitoring Password Vault Service Cell Phone Bill ICloud Gym Membership Disney+ Weight Watchers Entertainment (restaurant and alcohol) Anti Virus software Spotify Audible Amazon Prime This category has increased by 11% since Biden took office: Child Care (daycare) These categories have increased by at least a few dollars a month: Netflix Directv This category has increased by 15% since Biden took office: Hunt Club (lease) dues We are going to Aruba for 6 days in 2023. I noted recently, room prices are up approximately 60% since the time I made the budget for this trip in 2019. That was a smack in the face, but we'll grin and bear it and go regardless. I believe our personal inflation, which includes some tightening in our house, is likely approx 10% total since Inauguration. |
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What time does the gaslighting from the WH's first LGPTBBQ+POC+carpetmucher start?
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Quoted: I keep seeing folks on ARFCOM write this. My family keeps an extremely detailed budget spreadsheet, and we enter each receipt on a tracking spreadsheet. At the beginning of the biden administration our grocery budget for a family of 5 was $1,085 / month. grocery budget for us includes: Food, Clothing, Household filters (HVAC and Water), community youth sports fees, along with stuff like deoderant, new toothbrushes, diapers, new shoes, etc. Today, our budget is $1,185 a month. We have had to do some tightening, pushed up against the monthly limit more often, etc. It is hard for us to shop and keep under the $1,185 budget today, then keeping under the $1,085 budget was 2 years ago. but our kids are older, in more sports, growing like weed etc. I certainly do not believe we have had 20% inflation and been able to maintain this budget. But this data point knowing how detailed I track this stuff, ALONG with the Arfcom general response of "LIAR!!" In august 2022 when Biden said "Month to Month inflation this month was Zero" when my own vehicle gasoline bill at 140 Gallons / Month for my family decreased by over $200 from July to August (without a $200 increase in my grocery bill from July to August) makes me seriously question the validity of any posted claims here about inflation rates. I believe at least many of these claims are not informed by hard data that is objectively tracked from month to month. I mean on this same forum we have posters who claim their federal tax rate was 40%, on a $200K income. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: There’s nothing we’ve purchased that has only gone up 8.3%. We’re at 20%-25% plus, easily. I keep seeing folks on ARFCOM write this. My family keeps an extremely detailed budget spreadsheet, and we enter each receipt on a tracking spreadsheet. At the beginning of the biden administration our grocery budget for a family of 5 was $1,085 / month. grocery budget for us includes: Food, Clothing, Household filters (HVAC and Water), community youth sports fees, along with stuff like deoderant, new toothbrushes, diapers, new shoes, etc. Today, our budget is $1,185 a month. We have had to do some tightening, pushed up against the monthly limit more often, etc. It is hard for us to shop and keep under the $1,185 budget today, then keeping under the $1,085 budget was 2 years ago. but our kids are older, in more sports, growing like weed etc. I certainly do not believe we have had 20% inflation and been able to maintain this budget. But this data point knowing how detailed I track this stuff, ALONG with the Arfcom general response of "LIAR!!" In august 2022 when Biden said "Month to Month inflation this month was Zero" when my own vehicle gasoline bill at 140 Gallons / Month for my family decreased by over $200 from July to August (without a $200 increase in my grocery bill from July to August) makes me seriously question the validity of any posted claims here about inflation rates. I believe at least many of these claims are not informed by hard data that is objectively tracked from month to month. I mean on this same forum we have posters who claim their federal tax rate was 40%, on a $200K income. The vast majority of people don't try to quantify their suspicions before turning them into publicly stated opinions. I actually have a folder with a few spreadsheets to try and quantify certain hot topics that seem to pop up from time to time hear because I was curious enough to do the actual work. Now instead of arguing in those threads I just post the math and it usually kills the thread. |
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Quoted: Food and travel/transport costs seem a lot more than 8.3%. View Quote Aren't they now excluding gas prices from the index, because it was 'unfairly' degrading their numbers? Not sure. At any rate, they can keep increasing the interest rate, but it will be ineffective because the Gov keeps shoveling free money out to people. Example: I'm sure that they are already working on the next round of "inflation relief" checks to send out. At some point in their rate increases, the camel's back will break despite the free gov money, and we'll get a huge crash. I can't believe some here are eagerly awaiting that event. Vultures. |
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Sure, when you take out several important things, it's only 8.3.
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Quoted: I keep seeing folks on ARFCOM write this. My family keeps an extremely detailed budget spreadsheet, and we enter each receipt on a tracking spreadsheet. At the beginning of the biden administration our grocery budget for a family of 5 was $1,085 / month. grocery budget for us includes: Food, Clothing, Household filters (HVAC and Water), community youth sports fees, along with stuff like deoderant, new toothbrushes, diapers, new shoes, etc. Today, our budget is $1,185 a month. We have had to do some tightening, pushed up against the monthly limit more often, etc. It is hard for us to shop and keep under the $1,185 budget today, then keeping under the $1,085 budget was 2 years ago. but our kids are older, in more sports, growing like weed etc. I certainly do not believe we have had 20% inflation and been able to maintain this budget. But this data point knowing how detailed I track this stuff, ALONG with the Arfcom general response of "LIAR!!" In august 2022 when Biden said "Month to Month inflation this month was Zero" when my own vehicle gasoline bill at 140 Gallons / Month for my family decreased by over $200 from July to August (without a $200 increase in my grocery bill from July to August) makes me seriously question the validity of any posted claims here about inflation rates. I believe at least many of these claims are not informed by hard data that is objectively tracked from month to month. I mean on this same forum we have posters who claim their federal tax rate was 40%, on a $200K income. Edit to add: We have added $0 to these categories in our monthly/annual budget since Biden took office: Mortgage Electric (actually went down by $6 a month when i updated the last 12 months rolling average a few months ago) Trash pickup Car Insurance (decreased by $95 a month changing to GEICO for the same coverage 2 months ago) Healthcare Tolls plus Parking Alarm System Monitoring Password Vault Service Cell Phone Bill ICloud Gym Membership Disney+ Weight Watchers Entertainment (restaurant and alcohol) Anti Virus software Spotify Audible Amazon Prime This category has increased by 11% since Biden took office: Child Care (daycare) These categories have increased by at least a few dollars a month: Netflix Directv This category has increased by 15% since Biden took office: Hunt Club (lease) dues We are going to Aruba for 6 days in 2023. I noted recently, room prices are up approximately 60% since the time I made the budget for this trip in 2019. View Quote Your numbers are just that, your numbers. My numbers tell a very different story. I too keep a detailed budget and track spending. From the time Biden took office until today: Food - 34.9 % increase Pool maintenance - 86.5 % increase Car maintenance including tires - 28.4 % increase Clothing - 16.5 % increase Fuel - 140 % increase This adds up to hundreds of dollars in additional monthly cost over pre Biden household budgets. My 3 % cola doesn’t even make a dent in these very real price increases. Cuts have been made and will continue to be made which is why the economy is vapor locking. So good for you for beating it I guess? Extreme couponing or something?? Some fancy college math? Sell meth? |
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Quoted: I still don't believe it's only 8.3%. My personal costs are up over 10%. We got a list of vendor price increases at work and they were averaging around 15% View Quote Once you really embed in yor brain how big of a liar pedo joe really is then you'll start believing. Your problem is you're too honest and you expect honesty return. You won't find it among democrats. Or a bunch of repubs either. We have a dem running for state office in my district. Her garage sale sized sign is all red (repub color) with a tiny little donkey in the upper right corner. My district is conservative, she's hoping to fool people. |
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Quoted: -0.1% MoM would mean less of an increase, not a decrease. The inflation rate is still 8.3% YoY. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Well somebody was because the consensus estimate was -0.1% MoM. -0.1% MoM would mean less of an increase, not a decrease. The inflation rate is still 8.3% YoY. -0.1% MoM literally would have meant they calculated prices as being overall -0.1% less than the prior month. That requires a decrease in prices to have occurred by very definition. If prices stayed exactly the same for the next 12 months, we'd still have reported YoY inflation until July 2023 because of the very nature of YoY data. |
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So what's next years cost of living increase gonna look like for military retirees?
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Quoted: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/148613/0C46DCFD-806B-421B-A542-AEB9E29E452C_jpe-2524714.JPG View Quote Nailed it! |
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Quoted: Aren't they now excluding gas prices from the index, because it was 'unfairly' degrading their numbers? Not sure. At any rate, they can keep increasing the interest rate, but it will be ineffective because the Gov keeps shoveling free money out to people. Example: I'm sure that they are already working on the next round of "inflation relief" checks to send out. At some point in their rate increases, the camel's back will break despite the free gov money, and we'll get a huge crash. I can't believe some here are eagerly awaiting that event. Vultures. View Quote You mean, people waiting for opportunities? |
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