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TX, USA
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Posted: 4/16/2024 9:05:41 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Halberdier]
Really? I'm surprised by these numbers.
 Source: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/market-perspective ETA: Oil production has increased in North America and away from geopolitical hot spots First, global oil production is now less concentrated in the Middle East than it has been since the 1970s. Production from Saudi Arabia and Russia has slowed since the mid-2000s, while U.S. production has more than doubled thanks to the shale boom of the 2010s, which turned the U.S. into a net energy exporter for the first time since at least 1949. In that same decade, Canada began to extract crude from the oil sands in Alberta, boosting its production. Despite sanctions from the EU and the U.S. following the invasion in Ukraine, oil from Russia, the world's third-largest producer, has continued to flow, now largely to Indian and Chinese refineries. Second, OPEC members now have ample spare production capacity. When production is tight, exporting countries have little room to respond to increases in demand or shocks that can curtail output and cause prices to spike. The EIA estimates that OPEC's core members have around 4.5 million barrels per day of spare capacity, a sizable cushion roughly equivalent to the total output of the fifth largest oil producer in the world. Third, while oil demand is expected to continue to rise along with economic growth, the pace of demand growth is predicted to be much slower than in recent years, according to EIA forecasts. That implies the balance between oil supply and demand might remain tilted toward oversupply for the coming years. Notably, China, the world's second largest oil consumer, is likely to see soft demand in the near term as its economy struggles to find momentum. Despite current geopolitical risks, these additional factors suggest that the price of oil seems unlikely to sustainably appreciate further, derail disinflation, or curb economic growth. |
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USA
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Posted: 4/16/2024 9:07:44 AM EDT
[#1]
Where's the *
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TX, USA
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Posted: 4/16/2024 9:12:10 AM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By staringback05: Where's the * I'm looking for it, too. 10% production growth during Biden's term? That just sounds wrong. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 9:12:17 AM EDT
[#3]
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Posted: 4/16/2024 9:13:30 AM EDT
[#4]
If there is all this oil why is fuel so GD expensive? Are they not selling that shit domestic or something?
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Posted: 4/16/2024 9:13:56 AM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Halberdier: I'm looking for it, too. 10% production growth during Biden's term? That just sounds wrong. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Halberdier: Originally Posted By staringback05: Where's the * I'm looking for it, too. 10% production growth during Biden's term? That just sounds wrong. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus2&f=m |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 9:14:05 AM EDT
[Last Edit: buck19delta]
[#6]
How much are we exporting? Most ? Because I bet we’re exporting most of it.
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Posted: 4/16/2024 9:16:21 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Duck_Hunt]
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By delemorte: If there is all this oil why is fuel so GD expensive? Are they not selling that shit domestic or something? Pepperidge farm remembers 2019 when average gas prices were $2.60 at the pump and US O&G companies were going bankrupt and shutting their doors. |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 4/16/2024 9:16:23 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Duck_Hunt: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus2&f=m Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Duck_Hunt: Originally Posted By Halberdier: Originally Posted By staringback05: Where's the * I'm looking for it, too. 10% production growth during Biden's term? That just sounds wrong. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus2&f=m "Field Production." Does it include offshore rigs? |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 9:17:38 AM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By delemorte: If there is all this oil why is fuel so GD expensive? Are they not selling that shit domestic or something? Wars and rumors of wars... |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 9:22:26 AM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Halberdier: "Field Production." Does it include offshore rigs? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Halberdier: Originally Posted By Duck_Hunt: Originally Posted By Halberdier: Originally Posted By staringback05: Where's the * I'm looking for it, too. 10% production growth during Biden's term? That just sounds wrong. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus2&f=m "Field Production." Does it include offshore rigs? Probably. The rub here is that the line graph is telling regardless. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 9:22:31 AM EDT
[Last Edit: live-free-or-die]
[#11]
Originally Posted By delemorte: If there is all this oil why is fuel so GD expensive? Are they not selling that shit domestic or something? That isn't how global markets work and it isn't how oil refining/distillation works. All oil is traded on a global market and is sold to the highest bidder. In addition, oil refineries are finely tuned to work with a single type of oil. The US refineries have been shifting to lighter oils like those produced domestically but it is a slow process and no one wants a refinery offline. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41653 ETA: An easier explanation https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/america-produces-enough-oil-to-meet-its-needs-so-why-do-we-import-crude |
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USA
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Posted: 4/16/2024 9:23:05 AM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By delemorte: If there is all this oil why is fuel so GD expensive? Are they not selling that shit domestic or something? Fed money printer. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 9:26:17 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Foxtrot08]
[#13]
Sigh.
It’s like I predicted this… 2? Years ago. Also this thread is fresh. And the comments in it already gold. 
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VI, USA
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Posted: 4/16/2024 9:28:44 AM EDT
[#14]
Shouldn't we be a member of OPEC then ?
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MI, USA
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Posted: 4/16/2024 9:36:29 AM EDT
[#15]
‘Merica!
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Posted: 4/16/2024 9:39:32 AM EDT
[#16]
Domestic refineries aren't optimized to process domestic oil, but rather foreign oil. Foreign refineries aren't optimized to process foreign oil, but rather domestic oil...
...or so I read in GD some while ago |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 9:41:08 AM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RIP-Yataski: Domestic refineries aren't optimized to process domestic oil, but rather foreign oil. Foreign refineries aren't optimized to process foreign oil, but rather domestic oil... ...or so I read in GD some while ago It’s more complicated than that. Literally. It’s called Complexity Index. Or, technically the Nelson Complexity Index. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 9:41:53 AM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By live-free-or-die: That isn't how global markets work and it isn't how oil refining/distillation works. All oil is traded on a global market and is sold to the highest bidder. In addition, oil refineries are finely tuned to work with a single type of oil. The US refineries have been shifting to lighter oils like those produced domestically but it is a slow process and no one wants a refinery offline. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41653 Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By live-free-or-die: Originally Posted By delemorte: If there is all this oil why is fuel so GD expensive? Are they not selling that shit domestic or something? That isn't how global markets work and it isn't how oil refining/distillation works. All oil is traded on a global market and is sold to the highest bidder. In addition, oil refineries are finely tuned to work with a single type of oil. The US refineries have been shifting to lighter oils like those produced domestically but it is a slow process and no one wants a refinery offline. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41653 Thsi topic has been covered so many times in GD that I have to think the guys who still spout off ignorantly about it are just playing dumb at this point. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 9:42:59 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Foxtrot08: It’s more complicated than that. Literally. It’s called Complexity Index. Or, technically the Nelson Complexity Index. 
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Posted: 4/16/2024 9:43:13 AM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By staringback05: Where's the * We emptied our Strategic Fuel Reserves and now need to refill them. We've kept the SFR in case of war, tensions in the middle east, or an explosive scandal breaks on Biden. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 9:43:51 AM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Paul: We emptied our Strategic Fuel Reserves and now need to refill them. We've kept the SFR in case of war, tensions in the middle east, or an explosive scandal breaks on Biden. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Paul: Originally Posted By staringback05: Where's the * We emptied our Strategic Fuel Reserves and now need to refill them. We've kept the SFR in case of war, tensions in the middle east, or an explosive scandal breaks on Biden. The SPR is useless. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 9:47:16 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Mal_means_bad]
[#22]
This has much to do with our relative indifference to the Russian invasion of Ukraine (which has a huge energy war component, mostly Europe's problem) and Iran vs. Israel and Iranian nukes and the collapse of the US security relationship with Saudi Arabia. We have much less reason to care vs. the 1990's-2000's.
You'll note the other period of pre-WWII American isolationism and peak world power following WWII (fought largely over oil) coincided with the US being utterly dominant in oil production. The period of our decline roughly coincides with the US share of oil production fading. We cared very, very much about Iraq throughout the period of declining conventional production and abruptly stopped caring as soon as fracking took off.  Attached File |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 4/16/2024 9:48:00 AM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Foxtrot08: Sigh. It’s like I predicted this… 2? Years ago. Also this thread is fresh. And the comments in it already gold. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/148484/IMG_3534-3055384.jpg Refresh my memory please. 
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Posted: 4/16/2024 9:48:47 AM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Foxtrot08: The SPR is useless. The SPR is to oil as the ethanol subsidy is to corn. Political optics. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 9:51:13 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bikedamon: The SPR is to oil as the ethanol subsidy is to corn. Political optics. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bikedamon: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: The SPR is useless. The SPR is to oil as the ethanol subsidy is to corn. Political optics. That’s a very good analogy. |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 4/16/2024 9:57:13 AM EDT
[#26]
Because Biden administration has made it very expensive to get the oil from ground to gas.
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MD, USA
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Posted: 4/16/2024 9:57:21 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By buck19delta: How much are we exporting? Most ? Because I bet we’re exporting most of it. For fucks sake! Just Google it. No, we are not exporting most of it. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 9:57:23 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By walkinginadangerzone: Refresh my memory please. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By walkinginadangerzone: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Sigh. It’s like I predicted this… 2? Years ago. Also this thread is fresh. And the comments in it already gold. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/148484/IMG_3534-3055384.jpg Refresh my memory please. Once I get to my office I will. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 10:24:45 AM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Foxtrot08: Once I get to my office I will. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Foxtrot08: Originally Posted By walkinginadangerzone: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Sigh. It’s like I predicted this… 2? Years ago. Also this thread is fresh. And the comments in it already gold. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/148484/IMG_3534-3055384.jpg Refresh my memory please. Once I get to my office I will. Now we will get some answers. Class will be in session so take notes and try to keep up. 😁👍 |
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USA
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Posted: 4/16/2024 10:28:49 AM EDT
[#30]
Chocolate rations have increased from 4 grams to 3 grams.
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Posted: 4/16/2024 10:50:44 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By bikedamon: The SPR is to oil as the ethanol subsidy is to corn. Political optics. If it were only used for military applications would it be worth while? |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 10:53:00 AM EDT
[#32]
 Alaska has not increased oil output. Fuck jb and haaland has made it harder to find and get oil out. 
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Posted: 4/16/2024 10:56:36 AM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By chaas67: Now we will get some answers. Class will be in session so take notes and try to keep up. 😁👍 Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By chaas67: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Originally Posted By walkinginadangerzone: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Sigh. It’s like I predicted this… 2? Years ago. Also this thread is fresh. And the comments in it already gold. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/148484/IMG_3534-3055384.jpg Refresh my memory please. Once I get to my office I will. Now we will get some answers. Class will be in session so take notes and try to keep up. 😁👍 Now tagging. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 11:02:03 AM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By tveddy: If it were only used for military applications would it be worth while? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By tveddy: Originally Posted By bikedamon: The SPR is to oil as the ethanol subsidy is to corn. Political optics. If it were only used for military applications would it be worth while? Doesn’t matter. Refinery capacity is and always will be the bottle neck. |
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IL, USA
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Posted: 4/16/2024 11:02:31 AM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By staringback05: Where's the * Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By staringback05: Where's the * The chart seems to be counting something other than crude oil because the numbers don't add up. The US produces 13 million barrels per day and Russia and Saudi have each cut production to 9 million barrels per day. 13 is not greater than 18 (9+9). Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Sigh. It’s like I predicted this… 2? Years ago. Didn't you predict at the start of the Russia Ukraine war that Russian oil production would collapse in a year or two? |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 11:06:13 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Foxtrot08: Doesn’t matter. Refinery capacity is and always will be the bottle neck. On purpose. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 11:11:36 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By JohnT83: The chart seems to be counting something other than crude oil because the numbers don't add up. The US produces 13 million barrels per day and Russia and Saudi have each cut production to 9 million barrels per day. 13 is not greater than 18 (9+9). Didn't you predict at the start of the Russia Ukraine war that Russian oil production would collapse in a year or two? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By JohnT83: Originally Posted By staringback05: Where's the * The chart seems to be counting something other than crude oil because the numbers don't add up. The US produces 13 million barrels per day and Russia and Saudi have each cut production to 9 million barrels per day. 13 is not greater than 18 (9+9). Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Sigh. It’s like I predicted this… 2? Years ago. Didn't you predict at the start of the Russia Ukraine war that Russian oil production would collapse in a year or two? I said it would decrease by about ~1-2m bpd as Their further wells will fall off production as western drillers end their relationship and technology sharing. Which is approximately correct, depending on who you listen to. They declined from ~10m bpd to about 8.5m bpd. They are focused on shallow ural region drilling currently. As it’s easy and cheap for them. But unsustainable in those fields long term, as they were tapped originally back in the 1960s. And production fall off is real. Projects like the Sakhalin islands and Siberia have fallen off. Recent Russian LNG projects have been scrapped. NG production has fallen approximately 18% YoY. So approximately the same decline as their oil. Give or take. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 11:12:39 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ScottXD: On purpose. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ScottXD: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Doesn’t matter. Refinery capacity is and always will be the bottle neck. On purpose. No? Who’s going to pay for and sit on a multi billion dollar tool, that takes hundreds of millions of dollars to run/staff… and not use it? Excess capacity costs tons of money. No one is willing to front that money right now. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 11:23:01 AM EDT
[#39]
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Posted: 4/16/2024 11:25:04 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By akcaribouhunter: Alaska has not increased oil output. Fuck jb and haaland has made it harder to find and get oil out. Alaska operates well & pumps? |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 11:25:38 AM EDT
[#41]
The US was energy independent under Trump.
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OH, USA
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Posted: 4/16/2024 11:27:39 AM EDT
[Last Edit: JKH62]
[#42]
Gasoline is around $1.36 a gallon in Saudi Arabia......no corn crap added.
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Posted: 4/16/2024 11:29:13 AM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By JKH62: Gasoline is around $1.36 a gallon in Saudi Arabia...... Gasoline is $2.37 here. Weird price goes down when you subsidize something… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-28/saudi-arabia-s-7-000-per-person-fuel-subsidies-highest-in-g-20 |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 11:29:29 AM EDT
[#44]
I still see a lot of frack sites going in and pipelines being built to move that oil around. Definitely not like it was 5 years ago but it's still happening.
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Posted: 4/16/2024 11:29:31 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By JKH62: Gasoline is around $1.36 a gallon in Saudi Arabia...... The Saudi government has some of the highest domestic gasoline subsidies in the world. |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 11:31:00 AM EDT
[#46]
Sorry OP, that won't stop gas from going sky high because there shit going down between Israel and Iran.
Never let a crisis go to waste... |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 11:31:55 AM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 3one5: I still see a lot of frack sites going in and pipelines being built to move that oil around. Definitely not like it was 5 years ago but it's still happening. https://energynow.com/2020/01/north-american-oil-company-bankruptcies-jump-in-2019/?amp |
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Posted: 4/16/2024 11:48:48 AM EDT
[#48]
Biden is probably just giving the oil we crank out to UKR...
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CA, USA
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Posted: 4/16/2024 11:50:42 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By live-free-or-die: That isn't how global markets work and it isn't how oil refining/distillation works. All oil is traded on a global market and is sold to the highest bidder. In addition, oil refineries are finely tuned to work with a single type of oil. The US refineries have been shifting to lighter oils like those produced domestically but it is a slow process and no one wants a refinery offline. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41653 ETA: An easier explanation https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/america-produces-enough-oil-to-meet-its-needs-so-why-do-we-import-crude |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 4/16/2024 1:54:31 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Duck_Hunt: What countries are the top producers and consumers of oil? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Duck_Hunt: What countries are the top producers and consumers of oil? Good link. Looks like the information above is correct. And also looks like we consume roughly 90% of what we produce, leaving only 2 million or so barrels for net export. The top 10 oil producers and share of total world oil production in 2023 Country: Million barrels per day/Share of world total United States: 21.91/22% Saudi Arabia: 11.13/11% Russia: 10.75/11% Canada: 5.76/6% China: 5.26/5% Iraq: 4.42/4% Brazil 4.28/4% United Arab Emirates: 4.16/4% Iran: 3.99/4% Kuwait: 2.91/3% Total top 10: 74.59/73% World total: 101.81 1 Oil includes crude oil, all other petroleum liquids, and biofuels. 2 Production includes domestic production of crude oil, all other petroleum liquids, and biofuels and refinery processing gain. 3 Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics, Total oil (petroleum and other liquids) production, as of April 11, 2024 |
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