Originally Posted By PoiDog:


Valerie Jarrett probably has the mullahs on speed dial on a satellite phone.

Originally Posted By Pair_of_ACES:
Snip

Absolute human garbage.

https://i.ibb.co/rfNB4Sm/632-F447-E-EE40-4-C8-D-9-EF9-8-BCED86-E4-E2-A.gif

Originally Posted By Cypher15:
Israel had to call off a strike during the Obama admin because of them telling Iran shit.

Originally Posted By Ruin:


Disgusting that “officials” are leaking their expectations for Israeli conduct. Thats purely meant to undermine Israeli efforts, nothing less.

Originally Posted By johnh57:


Seems there would be an opportunity here.  Tell potato et al. one thing.

Do something much different.

Make sure it can be shown Iran prepped for the story told to potatoes people.

Originally Posted By cyclone:


Perfect target for a Jericho 3 strike

Originally Posted By tcfla:
What if they bomb the displays arranged and ready for the parade in the middle of the night before?  Maybe crater the parade route, too.

Originally Posted By tcfla:
What if they bomb the displays arranged and ready for the parade in the middle of the night before?  Maybe crater the parade route, too.

Originally Posted By thesilvercord:

Some Biden administration officials are expecting Israel to make a limited strike inside Iran, a senior U.S. official tells CBS News’ David Martin.

But Israel is not sharing its targeting with the U.S., so the U.S. does not know what form the Israeli retaliation will take or…

CBS News  (@CBSNews) April 16, 2024

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/327183/IMG_3078_jpeg-3189803.JPG

Originally Posted By MKSheppard:
Here's my hot take:

The fact that we've got craters and damage within an Israeli Airbase in the Negev is a major item in itself.

I'm not going to get into "the weeds" regarding Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD), but rather focus on what Iran just demonstrated:

Iran just demonstrated that despite heavy GPS jamming (planes were warping hundreds of miles away on flight tracker) they were able to get pretty good accuracy levels with mass produced weapons capable of being handled by the semi-bog standard IRGC officer/enlisted.

This is pretty significant, because it's a capability equal to what the IAF had in 1982 -- the ability to make a long range (1000 mile / 1600 km) strike against a heavily defended target and place payload(s) on the target.

Operation Babylon in 1981 was a 700 mile (1,130~ km) strike that required extremely high proficiency -- the IAF used unguided Mk 84 2000 lb bombs to strike the reactor -- plus advanced technology (8 x F-16A plus 6 x F-15As).

That's really hard to achieve with "conventional" weapons for a second/third world nation -- because the Air Force(s) of those nations are always hotbeds of hotheaded young officers, and coups always start off with the Presidental Palace being bombed by jet aircraft -- so the skill level/training of those Air Forces were retarded as a way to protect the Regime(s).

Plus of course; until now, such approaches were possible, but highly attritional, unless you had absolute air supremacy like the USAF can achieve -- i.e. you can bomb the heavily defended target 700+ miles away, but you're going to lose a good fraction of your highly trained pilot force and their very expensive jets.

In both cases -- Pilots and Jets -- losses will take years to recover from (if at all).

Well now; the shoe is on the other foot; with Israel being bombed from long range by another state, instead of Israel being the one doing the bombing.

That's what's driving this massive temper tantrum by the Israeli leadership (both political and military) -- because they've been stunted in their political thinking for so long as they've escaped/never had to face consequences for their actions in the Middle East until now.

Essentially, they're upset over the fact that "Iran can do to us what we've been doing to the entire middle east since about 1956."

You only need to look at what Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant told SecDef Austin per news reports:

"Israel won't accept an equation in which Iran responds with a direct attack every time Israel strikes targets in Syria, Gallant added."

Crudely put, Iran basically put Israel on notice:

"Hey, you want to keep teabagging Syria? Say hello to my little friend(s)."

This is apparently unacceptable to the Israeli politico-defense establishment.

https://media.tenor.com/7vqtIP8KVoAAAAAi/chudjak-poljak.gif
Israeli establishment reacting

For some strange reason they have a hard on for Syria -- recall that in Winter 2022, Israel denied SPIKE ATGM export licenses to the US, Germany and the Baltic States -- we were asking to send them to Ukraine to stop the Russian armored columns -- and Israel said no.

Basically, Israel did that to preserve freedom of manuver in Syria -- IOW to buy complicity from the Russians in the Russians letting the IAF do whatever they want in Syria as long as the IAF doesn't bomb Russian troops in Syria.

It's the most brazen display of realpolitik I've seen in my lifetime.

FYI, the second most brazen display of realpolitik I've seen in my life is the "we didn't bomb the Iranian embassy!" cope by the Israelis. Um, you bombed a building right NEXT to it. That's effectively defacto bombing it. Do you think anyone else would accept this excuse if it happened to their embassy?

Originally Posted By sierra-def:


Khat is bad mmmkay.

Originally Posted By fisherman:
So....SWAG on the timing of the upcoming festivities.....tonight or tomorrow night.

Weather in Iran

Originally Posted By WoodHeat:
All of this feels more orchestrated by the day. Iran's attack smells of face saving in coordination with Israel, the US, and the others who aided their defense. Now it seems like we're waiting for what I'd bet is an agreed upon, face saving, Israeli limited strike which probably won't result in any meaningful harm to Iran.

Who wins? The people in power on both sides. Both sides save face and both have what they need for domestic consumption. Nobody gets overthrown, nobody important gets hurt, and no revenue streams are impacted. In fact, the revenue streams will probably increase for both sides.

Originally Posted By MKSheppard:
Here's my hot take:

The fact that we've got craters and damage within an Israeli Airbase in the Negev is a major item in itself.

I'm not going to get into "the weeds" regarding Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD), but rather focus on what Iran just demonstrated:

Iran just demonstrated that despite heavy GPS jamming (planes were warping hundreds of miles away on flight tracker) they were able to get pretty good accuracy levels with mass produced weapons capable of being handled by the semi-bog standard IRGC officer/enlisted.

This is pretty significant, because it's a capability equal to what the IAF had in 1982 -- the ability to make a long range (1000 mile / 1600 km) strike against a heavily defended target and place payload(s) on the target.

Operation Babylon in 1981 was a 700 mile (1,130~ km) strike that required extremely high proficiency -- the IAF used unguided Mk 84 2000 lb bombs to strike the reactor -- plus advanced technology (8 x F-16A plus 6 x F-15As).

That's really hard to achieve with "conventional" weapons for a second/third world nation -- because the Air Force(s) of those nations are always hotbeds of hotheaded young officers, and coups always start off with the Presidental Palace being bombed by jet aircraft -- so the skill level/training of those Air Forces were retarded as a way to protect the Regime(s).

Plus of course; until now, such approaches were possible, but highly attritional, unless you had absolute air supremacy like the USAF can achieve -- i.e. you can bomb the heavily defended target 700+ miles away, but you're going to lose a good fraction of your highly trained pilot force and their very expensive jets.

In both cases -- Pilots and Jets -- losses will take years to recover from (if at all).

Well now; the shoe is on the other foot; with Israel being bombed from long range by another state, instead of Israel being the one doing the bombing.

That's what's driving this massive temper tantrum by the Israeli leadership (both political and military) -- because they've been stunted in their political thinking for so long as they've escaped/never had to face consequences for their actions in the Middle East until now.

Essentially, they're upset over the fact that "Iran can do to us what we've been doing to the entire middle east since about 1956."

You only need to look at what Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant told SecDef Austin per news reports:

"Israel won't accept an equation in which Iran responds with a direct attack every time Israel strikes targets in Syria, Gallant added."

Crudely put, Iran basically put Israel on notice:

"Hey, you want to keep teabagging Syria? Say hello to my little friend(s)."

This is apparently unacceptable to the Israeli politico-defense establishment.

https://media.tenor.com/7vqtIP8KVoAAAAAi/chudjak-poljak.gif
Israeli establishment reacting

For some strange reason they have a hard on for Syria -- recall that in Winter 2022, Israel denied SPIKE ATGM export licenses to the US, Germany and the Baltic States -- we were asking to send them to Ukraine to stop the Russian armored columns -- and Israel said no.

Basically, Israel did that to preserve freedom of manuver in Syria -- IOW to buy complicity from the Russians in the Russians letting the IAF do whatever they want in Syria as long as the IAF doesn't bomb Russian troops in Syria.

It's the most brazen display of realpolitik I've seen in my lifetime.

FYI, the second most brazen display of realpolitik I've seen in my life is the "we didn't bomb the Iranian embassy!" cope by the Israelis. Um, you bombed a building right NEXT to it. That's effectively defacto bombing it. Do you think anyone else would accept this excuse if it happened to their embassy?

Originally Posted By Wineraner:


Israel, like Ukraine, though not to the same degree, is a US MIC charity case.  Which is fine, we need someone to sell stuff to, but it also means we get a large say in how Israel conducts military operations.  As we've seen with Gaza.  What would the US public, and more importantly, the group owning media which shapes US public opinion, think about an Israeli attack that put a 1,000 plus Iranian civvies in the ground?  With video on scene to boot?

Already, the US Gov't seems way more influenced by domestic Muslim opinion than they should have any right to be by their proportion in the US electorate.  Yet that's the way it's going.  So, how would Dearborn view such an attack, and might the aid spigot shut off afterwards?  Poorly and Yes.

You're not wrong though, albeit war is won by changing enemy leadership's opinion about the merits of continuing to fight.  Some leaders never change their minds until you kill them, and do business with their successors, e.g., WW2 Japan.  Some are like 1997 Serbia.  And others still are wholly opposed to you, swear blood feuds, get buy-in from everyone in the clan, etc...  Like really hardcore Pashtun, or Comanches.  Takes a few generations to convince those groups.  Occasionally, the Carthaginian solution needs to be used.

Originally Posted By Undaunted:
Its a bit of a tightrope, but it is ultimately about the survival of Israel.

Globally, there are around 16,000,000 Jews.

There are 2+ billion Muslims.

There simply is no scenario that Jews win in the court of public opinion.

Originally Posted By FR8D4WG:


Would be an awesome opportunity for an F-35 to stop in and say hello to everyone then leave.

Originally Posted By PatriotAr15:
So if this war breaks out.... there will be the potential of trannies shooting each other.

Originally Posted By bulldog1967:


Engage the Simpson Option !!

Originally Posted By mooreshawnm:

When we started thinking like that is when we started losing wars.

Originally Posted By mooreshawnm:

It isn't one or the other. Play to win. The destruction of the enemy nation is the goal.
ETA no conflict is without brutality. It is what conflict is.

Originally Posted By Curmudgeon762:


A low level and high speed fly by along the parade route, dropping leaflets that said “Hello from the Israeli Air Force” would be epic. Not going to happen, but it would be awesome if it did

Originally Posted By WoodHeat:

"Invasion" is an interesting choice of words.