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Only down about 400 points Bahahaha!
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On The Edge Of Ybor City
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Originally Posted By FALARAK: Losers always measure everything from the last peak. It is the only way the math works out for them. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By FALARAK: Originally Posted By CVO: Only down about 400 points Bahahaha! Losers always measure everything from the last peak. It is the only way the math works out for them. exactly. some of us have been investing for 30+ years. we're doing just fine thank you very much. and as said above -- been adding more in the down cycles... you know -- the 'buy low' part of the equation. |
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S&P is down for the last two years, enjoy your ride.
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On The Edge Of Ybor City
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Originally Posted By CVO: S&P is down for the last two years, enjoy your ride. View Quote Attached File Attached File |
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[Insert creative words here]
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Originally Posted By FALARAK: Losers always measure everything from the last peak. It is the only way the math works out for them. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By FALARAK: Originally Posted By CVO: Only down about 400 points Bahahaha! Losers always measure everything from the last peak. It is the only way the math works out for them. lol. Isn't that the truth. They never measure from anything but the last peak, every single time. It's only up what, just a tad under 4000 points since the bottom of the last recession in 09'.....Even if you half it..... you're still winning. It's almost a factor of 10 since the mid nineties. Back to the regularly scheduled doom. Only thing I did wrong was not buy more sooner. Even after every calamity there ever was, even if you buy high and sell low, you still win if you think in terms of years and decades instead of days. TLDR; inflation never sleeps. Never has never will. Now back to sports ball and tay tay news. |
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Originally Posted By CVO: S&P is down for the last two years, enjoy your ride. View Quote Well shucks. Time to buy doom instead. From the start of the S&P 500, it's only been about what 2500-2700% or so growth........ peanuts right? A mere 25 times or so. Back to zero any day now. I'm not trying to sound like a dick. It's just that things go up things go down world goes around. Rinse repeat. |
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Cheap money does wonders.
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On The Edge Of Ybor City
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To be fair, long term Spidey will be right.
But same as the other thread about real estate prices: sure the buyer who bought before the RE boom, during the boom, and after the upcoming theoretically have the same price on the same home, but buying for [email protected]%, [email protected]%, and [email protected]% are going to have woefully different cash flows and long term potential for saving. |
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WTF is up with this bullshit anti-bayo lug crap. Was there a group of irrate japanese guys bonzai charging disabled school children and puppies that I wasn't aware of?
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Originally Posted By spidey07: I’m about 30% total net worth value in aapl. Still buying more. I’ll just be the slow compounding turtle. Cash is trash. Op made his post, feared correction. That’s when you make most money. Buy low. He sells. I buy. He loses. I win. History is a cruel mistress. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By spidey07: Originally Posted By BillofRights: Originally Posted By spidey07: Originally Posted By wookie1562: Originally Posted By MFP_4073: don't follow Warren Buffets lead the dude is a multi multi-BILLIONAIRE -- what he does with his money is absolutely not relevant to us. think about it -- if you had $150 BILLION in a portfolio -- would you CARE AT ALL about making more ?? no -- it would be unnecessary to take ANY risk. inflation would be ZERO concern. you'd make over $6 BILLION a year just in Treasuries... plus he makes a lot of wrong calls -- his actual investment portfolio is DOWN this year while the SP500 is UP 15% YTD. in fact he has even stated -- PERFORMANCE is not something he cares about. he focuses on earnings / income. he's playing a completely different game than we are. BRK is not down on either YTD or 1-yr basis. They're now earning $15k/minute without risk. The risk-free rate hasn't been consequential in recent decades but many will learn the significance. It's the reason BRK took 40 billion on the nose last quarter. So how many shares do you own? I own about 300 brk-b. Going for more, but I bet the price will go down when WB croaks or retires. I’m about 30% total net worth value in aapl. Still buying more. I’ll just be the slow compounding turtle. Cash is trash. Op made his post, feared correction. That’s when you make most money. Buy low. He sells. I buy. He loses. I win. History is a cruel mistress. So am I. The only thing the makes me a bit nervous is the Taiwan/China issue, but war would certainly be a historic Buying opportunity. Problem is, Aapl is the only stock I really like. Here on out, it’ll mostly be index funds and aapl + Brk. And the existing Xom/Cvx of course, but I can’t see them being great for the long term. |
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GD- "It's kind of like wading through through slimy lake bed with your feet to find clams below the surface".
- gtfoxy |
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nice pop today
doomers GTFO |
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What is written is my opinion, and my opinion only.
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Originally Posted By spidey07: It’s like I have a fucking crystal ball that learns from history. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By spidey07: Originally Posted By spidey07: We never entered correction this year. Your OP said correction coming. After that we had best winning streak since 2021. I predict sp500 4500 before year end 2023 It’s like I have a fucking crystal ball that learns from history. You do. What’s it predicting for 52 wk low and when? That’s the cry…”fucking” crystal ball you want. |
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Originally Posted By exponentialpi: The market thinks free money is coming back, as soon as March 2024. They are smoking something strong. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By exponentialpi: Originally Posted By MFP_4073: nice pop today doomers GTFO The market thinks free money is coming back, as soon as March 2024. They are smoking something strong. Something has to happen before the free money comes back and that something is the reason for caution. I think the market is right that rate cuts are coming but I don't think the market appreciates exactly what kind of events would inspire rate cuts in the first place. If the economy sticks the soft landing here in the next few months, which appears to be the dominant sentiment this week, there's no reason for significant rate cuts. |
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There won't be any rate cuts unless the inflation numbers really slide down more from here, or there is a catalyst event, that won't be kind.
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Originally Posted By FALARAK: There won't be any rate cuts unless the inflation numbers really slide down more from here, or there is a catalyst event, that won't be kind. View Quote The fed will absolutely cut in 2024 regardless of inflation . They will attempt to bolster the markets in time for the election |
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"Problem in Venezuela is not that socialism has been poorly implemented, but that socialism has been faithfully implemented."
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While the market is in a bubble, expect it to hockey puck up in a hyper-inflationary market. Precedents include Weimar, Zimbabwe & Venezuela. The tradeoff is no liquidity.
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Originally Posted By woodsie: Something has to happen before the free money comes back and that something is the reason for caution. I think the market is right that rate cuts are coming but I don't think the market appreciates exactly what kind of events would inspire rate cuts in the first place. If the economy sticks the soft landing here in the next few months, which appears to be the dominant sentiment this week, there's no reason for significant rate cuts. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By woodsie: Originally Posted By exponentialpi: Originally Posted By MFP_4073: nice pop today doomers GTFO The market thinks free money is coming back, as soon as March 2024. They are smoking something strong. Something has to happen before the free money comes back and that something is the reason for caution. I think the market is right that rate cuts are coming but I don't think the market appreciates exactly what kind of events would inspire rate cuts in the first place. If the economy sticks the soft landing here in the next few months, which appears to be the dominant sentiment this week, there's no reason for significant rate cuts. Wall street is predicting rate cuts, June of next year. The real estate folks are banking on it. |
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"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote."
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Originally Posted By 2tired2run: Wall street is predicting rate cuts, June of next year. The real estate folks are banking on it. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By 2tired2run: Originally Posted By woodsie: Originally Posted By exponentialpi: Originally Posted By MFP_4073: nice pop today doomers GTFO The market thinks free money is coming back, as soon as March 2024. They are smoking something strong. Something has to happen before the free money comes back and that something is the reason for caution. I think the market is right that rate cuts are coming but I don't think the market appreciates exactly what kind of events would inspire rate cuts in the first place. If the economy sticks the soft landing here in the next few months, which appears to be the dominant sentiment this week, there's no reason for significant rate cuts. Wall street is predicting rate cuts, June of next year. The real estate folks are banking on it. Well, I guess the real estate folks can learn to code til then. |
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The dollar is so strong at the moment, it's actually messing with ag exports......
My stock account sure didn't get the recession message. This keeps up, it's gonna completely erase the lack of gains previously. |
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So 3 weeks after OP post…
3 straight big up weeks for sp500 Sp500 up close to 10% in those 3 weeks Tech stonks knocking on all time highs “Muh correction, unsustainable collapse, crashing any day now” When bull runs, he runs fast and hard. We are still in a bull market. I called 4500. Here we are close over 4500. @mochaTX |
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Originally Posted By spidey07: So 3 weeks after OP post… 3 straight big up weeks for sp500 Sp500 up close to 10% in those 3 weeks Tech stonks knocking on all time highs “Muh correction, unsustainable collapse, crashing any day now” When bull runs, he runs fast and hard. We are still in a bull market. I called 4500. Here we are close over 4500. @mochaTX View Quote We will see. Lol Walmart and Target both have said that the consumer is swapping stuff instead of going all out. Subprime auto loans are showing delinquency past 90 days increase. Mortgages as well. Gas is in over supply temporarily. The “resilient consumer” is racking up debt and putting it on credit nonetheless. That goes for the .gov too. |
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S&P down over 250 points, NAZ down about 2000 points and Russel 2k down 600 points. Lets celebrate recouping some of our loss, BAHAHAHA! |
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On The Edge Of Ybor City
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The economy couldn't handle 5% rates in 2007-2008 when total corporate debt was a small fraction of what it is currently, but I'm sure it will fair just fine at 5% now after a decade of businesses becoming accustomed to ZIRP and adding trillions in additional debt that needs to be rolled over at higher rates.
Run bull run! |
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Originally Posted By CoconutLaCroix: The economy couldn't handle 5% rates in 2007-2008 when total corporate debt was a small fraction of what it is currently, but I'm sure it will fair just fine at 5% now after a decade of businesses becoming accustomed to ZIRP and adding trillions in additional debt that needs to be rolled over at higher rates. Run bull run! View Quote Is the bull not running? What are you doing to make money on your confidence? I’m posting what I’m doing. Oh man the fucking money. It fucking prints more money. |
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Originally Posted By merick: Originally Posted By spidey07: Oh man the fucking money. It fucking prints more money. Inflation much? Yes! Exactly! The goal is to build wealth by compounding and way outpace inflation. Inflation compounds…the goal is to outpace it long term which always happens with stonks. |
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Originally Posted By spidey07: Is the bull not running? What are you doing to make money on your confidence? I’m posting what I’m doing. Oh man the fucking money. It fucking prints more money. View Quote The bull is meandering. A drop in treasury yields just means the Fed has room to hike. Which they need to do. Housing hasn’t corrected, but will. Unemployment isn’t high enough yet, and money is still sloshing around due to the .gov injecting $200 billion every month(which they don’t have and must borrow perpetually). The biggest reason why inflation is down is because gas prices dropped and companies slowed hiring. Why is gas price down? Because China is throwing whatever they can to keep inflating their deflating economy, but failing. And all the oversupply in gas can quickly be shifted by a few OPEC cuts or Iran decides to go stupid over the Strait of Hormuz. Also if one company decides to cut causes a cascade of all decide to cut because lending costs increased and “Stonk price must go up” then the recession happens in earnest. |
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Originally Posted By boolzi: Seriously spidey, what are you going to do with all of the money? You dont drink or party…so buy a place in Aruba? Let’s spend that shit! This is what i see you in.. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/445788/IMG_0730-3031338.jpg View Quote Easy. I’m going to not work making the same income as if I were. That’s what I’ll do with it. Not rich. Still working. Stuff doesn’t make me happy. I have enough stuff. I think in 10-20 years. And I can’t work forever nor want to. |
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Originally Posted By mochaTX: The bull is meandering. A drop in treasury yields just means the Fed has room to hike. Which they need to do. Housing hasn’t corrected, but will. Unemployment isn’t high enough yet, and money is still sloshing around due to the .gov injecting $200 billion every month(which they don’t have and must borrow perpetually). The biggest reason why inflation is down is because gas prices dropped and companies slowed hiring. Why is gas price down? Because China is throwing whatever they can to keep inflating their deflating economy, but failing. And all the oversupply in gas can quickly be shifted by a few OPEC cuts or Iran decides to go stupid over the Strait of Hormuz. Also if one company decides to cut causes a cascade of all decide to cut because lending costs increased and “Stonk price must go up” then the recession happens in earnest. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By mochaTX: Originally Posted By spidey07: Is the bull not running? What are you doing to make money on your confidence? I’m posting what I’m doing. Oh man the fucking money. It fucking prints more money. The bull is meandering. A drop in treasury yields just means the Fed has room to hike. Which they need to do. Housing hasn’t corrected, but will. Unemployment isn’t high enough yet, and money is still sloshing around due to the .gov injecting $200 billion every month(which they don’t have and must borrow perpetually). The biggest reason why inflation is down is because gas prices dropped and companies slowed hiring. Why is gas price down? Because China is throwing whatever they can to keep inflating their deflating economy, but failing. And all the oversupply in gas can quickly be shifted by a few OPEC cuts or Iran decides to go stupid over the Strait of Hormuz. Also if one company decides to cut causes a cascade of all decide to cut because lending costs increased and “Stonk price must go up” then the recession happens in earnest. So what are you doing based on your predictions? |
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Originally Posted By spidey07: So what are you doing based on your predictions? View Quote Like I said, I moved 40% to mmf/bonds in July that will mature in 1Q24. I’ve been buying some valued tech like Intel throughout last year in fall(but will probably exit some and to reap profit, maybe even short NVDA but I have to see the timeframes of MSFT/Arm AI chip and AMD rollout soon if their AI chip for reception), never stopped. Im also buying oil now again. I want to have as much dry powder that makes sense for the macro slow down as these rates actually hit over time. Then I will buy in and take it the DCA over the downturn. A euphoric blip over two data points and betting all in for a Fed induced soft landing is dumb which looks like the market is doing. The basic macro economics are still unchanged: you have a .gov not slowing spending who will have to borrow more and more with even less buyers, the middle class margin consumer who spends the most is about out of savings and going into debt with extremely high interest rates, you still have a Fed with trillions on their balance sheet to unwind, and inflation isn’t beat because it’s still simmering because of that .gov that doesn’t know how to cut spending. Over time will the stock market continue to rise? Sure. But what drop will occur first, what happened last year is small compared to what needs to happen. Because a big down needs to happen. We’ve been QE for a decade, we delayed it even further with COVID spending which we really are paying for hard. Things need to be trimmed. The macro market cycle must occur and we’ve delayed it for too long. And then there is the biggest elephant in the room. Global .gov debt loads in all countries at the highest they have ever been compared to GDPs since world wars. The biggest regions that’s growing in population are Latin America, India and Africa. Those countries aren’t the best in terms of fiscal/.gov sustainability.(maybe India, but not really) You can’t grow yourself out of .gov debt commitments if the biggest economies are not growing consumers fast enough to make the stock market float. |
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Originally Posted By spidey07: Is the bull not running? What are you doing to make money on your confidence? I'm posting what I'm doing. Oh man the fucking money. It fucking prints more money. View Quote Sounds like you're down with it bad. I'm enjoying a money market that pays 5% for doing literally nothing and taking on minimal risk, while the 5% rates corrode massively overvalued assets. There are alternatives to higher risk stocks. TINA is over. |
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Originally Posted By CoconutLaCroix: "Irrational exuberance" is an investor psychology-driven phenomenon where market participants are driven more by their emotions and speculative tendencies than by rational evaluation of asset values based on their intrinsic qualities or conditions. Sounds like you're down with it bad. I'm enjoying a money market that pays 5% for parking money, while the 5% rates corrode these massively overvalued assets. There are alternatives to higher risk stocks. TINA is over. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By CoconutLaCroix: Originally Posted By spidey07: Is the bull not running? What are you doing to make money on your confidence? I'm posting what I'm doing. Oh man the fucking money. It fucking prints more money. Sounds like you're down with it bad. I'm enjoying a money market that pays 5% for parking money, while the 5% rates corrode these massively overvalued assets. There are alternatives to higher risk stocks. TINA is over. So my irrational exuberance has lasted 30 years? Where my investing is driven by math and history instead of emotion? Interesting. Is 30 years of compound growth somehow irrational and based on emotion? You do realize your losing money in that MM, right? And you always will long term. |
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Originally Posted By CoconutLaCroix: "Irrational exuberance" is an investor psychology-driven phenomenon where market participants are driven more by their emotions and speculative tendencies than by rational evaluation of asset values based on their intrinsic qualities or conditions. Sounds like you're down with it bad. I'm enjoying a money market that pays 5% for doing literally nothing and taking on minimal risk, while the 5% rates corrode massively overvalued assets. There are alternatives to higher risk stocks. TINA is over. 5% helped send an economy that was far less levered into a recession so deep that it took nearly a decade of 0% life support and round after round of QE to "revive" it and I'm supposed to believe an economy that is more than double as over-geared as it was in 2007-2008 to handle 5% well? How does that work? Oh right "it has so it will! I'm rich bitch!" 10/10 argument View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By CoconutLaCroix: Originally Posted By spidey07: Is the bull not running? What are you doing to make money on your confidence? I'm posting what I'm doing. Oh man the fucking money. It fucking prints more money. Sounds like you're down with it bad. I'm enjoying a money market that pays 5% for doing literally nothing and taking on minimal risk, while the 5% rates corrode massively overvalued assets. There are alternatives to higher risk stocks. TINA is over. 5% helped send an economy that was far less levered into a recession so deep that it took nearly a decade of 0% life support and round after round of QE to "revive" it and I'm supposed to believe an economy that is more than double as over-geared as it was in 2007-2008 to handle 5% well? How does that work? Oh right "it has so it will! I'm rich bitch!" 10/10 argument Interesting. CLC is one of only a small handful of regulars, both knowledgeable and informed on this topic. What percentage of assets do you have poised, waiting for the downturn? 30%, 60% 90%? |
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GD- "It's kind of like wading through through slimy lake bed with your feet to find clams below the surface".
- gtfoxy |
Originally Posted By spidey07: So my irrational exuberance has lasted 30 years? Where my investing is driven by math and history instead of emotion? Interesting. Is 30 years of compound growth somehow irrational and based on emotion? You do realize your losing money in that MM, right? And you always will long term. View Quote You don't understand interest rates. I'm not sure what your "math" and "history" strategy is for investing, but it's obvious you don't know anything about interest rates and their role in boosting asset prices over the past 30 years. For the past 30 years people investing have had a wind at their back with increased globalization and steadily declining interest rates. Every hiccup was met with a rate cut and stimulus all the way down to 0%. 5% interest rates helped send an economy that was far less levered into a recession so deep that it took nearly a decade of 0% life support and round after round of QE to "revive" it and I'm supposed to believe an economy that has more than twice as much corporate debt as 2007-2008 is going to handle 5% well? How does that work? Oh right "it has so it will! I'm rich bitch!" 10/10 argument |
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Originally Posted By spidey07: So my irrational exuberance has lasted 30 years? Where my investing is driven by math and history instead of emotion? Interesting. Is 30 years of compound growth somehow irrational and based on emotion? You do realize your losing money in that MM, right? And you always will long term. View Quote The top 10 SPY holdings except Berkshire have P/E's above 23 while the entire treasury curve is above 4.4, exactly how much math are you doing? |
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Originally Posted By BillofRights: Interesting. CLC is one of only a small handful of regulars, both knowledgeable and informed on this topic. What percentage of assets do you have poised, waiting for the downturn? 30%, 60% 90%? View Quote |
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Originally Posted By merick: The top 10 SPY holdings except Berkshire have P/E's above 23 while the entire treasury curve is above 4.4, exactly how much math are you doing? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By merick: Originally Posted By spidey07: So my irrational exuberance has lasted 30 years? Where my investing is driven by math and history instead of emotion? Interesting. Is 30 years of compound growth somehow irrational and based on emotion? You do realize your losing money in that MM, right? And you always will long term. The top 10 SPY holdings except Berkshire have P/E's above 23 while the entire treasury curve is above 4.4, exactly how much math are you doing? |
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What is written is my opinion, and my opinion only.
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Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.. |
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