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Posted: 1/24/2020 9:24:56 AM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: LOL... but you do have a point. Also, (Tweet links to a NYPost article)
stop overthinking this. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 9:30:22 AM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
A lot of updates to post from the last 6 hours - working on the OP now New cities, 14 total, added to quarantine 40 million people TOTAL on lockdown Chinese Disney Closed All movie theaters closed Forbidden City Closed 888 Cases now, 26 dead * Official totals |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 9:30:47 AM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Spanish Flu had about a 20% death rate at it's worst. Which were primarily healthy, young people. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 9:31:16 AM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
888 cases.... if this is an escaped bio weapon. it's a shitty one in a population of that size. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
A lot of updates to post from the last 6 hours - working on the OP now New cities, 14 total, added to quarantine 40 million people TOTAL on lockdown Chinese Disney Closed All movie theaters closed Forbidden City Closed 888 Cases now, 26 dead * Official totals |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 9:34:02 AM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Do you think they might be underreporting? ETA not trying to be a smartass. I think they are. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 9:39:58 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
888 cases.... if this is an escaped bio weapon. it's a shitty one in a population of that size. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
A lot of updates to post from the last 6 hours - working on the OP now New cities, 14 total, added to quarantine 40 million people TOTAL on lockdown Chinese Disney Closed All movie theaters closed Forbidden City Closed 888 Cases now, 26 dead * Official totals |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 9:41:33 AM EDT
[#7]
Put me in the camp of "visible response does not match reported numbers".
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Posted: 1/24/2020 9:41:37 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Do you think they might be underreporting? ETA not trying to be a smartass. I think they are. with eyes on by the WHO and a ton of researchers, dead bodies flooding the streets and healthcare centers shutting down would not be something possible to hide imho. you would also see a MUCH bigger escalation here and in other countries if that were the case. something we currently don't have. the cdc as of yesterday when i looked was basically just issuing a travel warning and base precautions. i am not saying this won't change, i don't know. but i am saying currently a lot of people are blowing a lot of stuff completely out of proportion just like they did with ebola. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 9:43:09 AM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Very likely Underreported on a large magnitude. Look at the lockdowns and indefinitely closed attractions. They don’t just shut everything down. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 9:45:48 AM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Do you think they might be underreporting? ETA not trying to be a smartass. I think they are. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 9:46:23 AM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
honestly i doubt it. with the amount of international attention on this it would be extremely hard to do even for china. even it they could hide 20% it's still not significant in a population of that size. 1k cases in a population of 40+ million so far i roughly less than .05% infections. that could certainly change over the next few days but right now i am running to my bunker. with eyes on by the WHO and a ton of researchers, dead bodies flooding the streets and healthcare centers shutting down would not be something possible to hide imho. you would also see a MUCH bigger escalation here and in other countries if that were the case. something we currently don't have. the cdc as of yesterday when i looked was basically just issuing a travel warning and base precautions. i am not saying this won't change, i don't know. but i am saying currently a lot of people are blowing a lot of stuff completely out of proportion just like they did with ebola. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Do you think they might be underreporting? ETA not trying to be a smartass. I think they are. with eyes on by the WHO and a ton of researchers, dead bodies flooding the streets and healthcare centers shutting down would not be something possible to hide imho. you would also see a MUCH bigger escalation here and in other countries if that were the case. something we currently don't have. the cdc as of yesterday when i looked was basically just issuing a travel warning and base precautions. i am not saying this won't change, i don't know. but i am saying currently a lot of people are blowing a lot of stuff completely out of proportion just like they did with ebola. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 9:47:07 AM EDT
[#12]
https://patch.com/california/sanleandro/alameda-county-residents-tested-deadly-coronavirus
results were negative. just like ebola EVERY idiot tested for this will make the news as a sensational we gonna die headline and the negative results buried in the story. if we had MASSIVE deaths and way underreported numbers this would actually be showing massive breakouts everywhere by now. not just a one off here or there. jmho. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 9:48:12 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
All the same, I appreciate the thoughtful response. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 9:54:07 AM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
china is known for exactly that on things that give them negative publicity. trust me they are much more worried about this affecting tourism and trade than being infectious and killing people. eyes are already on those internationally. hiding those numbers on that scale isn't likely. by the way we got very similar "reports" coming out of african population centers during ebola... Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: Very likely Underreported on a large magnitude. Look at the lockdowns and indefinitely closed attractions. They don’t just shut everything down. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 9:58:14 AM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
i fully admit i can and may be wrong here. i am at the mercy of the same news reports everyone else is reading. i guess i just read them through a different experience level. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
All the same, I appreciate the thoughtful response. I want to believe it’s a natural Coronavirus and the threat is overblown. My assumption is panic is what is truly driving the spread of the disease in China, forcing people with a flu or the common cold to the hospital where they are exposed to the Coronavirus through proximity to the infected and having multiple infections is what is doing the damage. You certainly are an SME and I hope you’re correct. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:00:00 AM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I disagree. There has never been a similar response to this one. This is a very extreme response |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:00:36 AM EDT
[#17]
I'm not worried until TBS is worried; a lesson learned from the Ebola thing.
I also have everything one could need still put away; another hold-over from Ebola. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:15:08 AM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: honestly.. for general day to day, liberal use of hand sanitizer. most off the shelf n95 masks for this stuff are window dressing. not because they don't work, but because people simply can not use them properly for hours at a time without breaching them. turn head fast or bump into something, scratch nose, stop to eat... etc etc. invest in lysol wipes for your local workspace and purell. bio is not chemical or hazmat. we are exposed to it 24x7. time to active infection varies with the bug and the host. masks are 99% to keep you from coughing on someone else not protection. i plan to use the same PPE i use for flu season. jeans, tshirt and sig p226. a healthy immune system and good hygiene will do you more good than anything you can buy on amazon. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:16:33 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I disagree. There has never been a similar response to this one. This is a very extreme response |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:16:57 AM EDT
[#20]
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:17:55 AM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Do you think they might be underreporting? ETA not trying to be a smartass. I think they are. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
A lot of updates to post from the last 6 hours - working on the OP now New cities, 14 total, added to quarantine 40 million people TOTAL on lockdown Chinese Disney Closed All movie theaters closed Forbidden City Closed 888 Cases now, 26 dead * Official totals |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:18:59 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
honestly i doubt it. with the amount of international attention on this it would be extremely hard to do even for china. even it they could hide 20% it's still not significant in a population of that size. 1k cases in a population of 40+ million so far i roughly less than .05% infections. that could certainly change over the next few days but right now i am running to my bunker. with eyes on by the WHO and a ton of researchers, dead bodies flooding the streets and healthcare centers shutting down would not be something possible to hide imho. you would also see a MUCH bigger escalation here and in other countries if that were the case. something we currently don't have. the cdc as of yesterday when i looked was basically just issuing a travel warning and base precautions. i am not saying this won't change, i don't know. but i am saying currently a lot of people are blowing a lot of stuff completely out of proportion just like they did with ebola. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Do you think they might be underreporting? ETA not trying to be a smartass. I think they are. with eyes on by the WHO and a ton of researchers, dead bodies flooding the streets and healthcare centers shutting down would not be something possible to hide imho. you would also see a MUCH bigger escalation here and in other countries if that were the case. something we currently don't have. the cdc as of yesterday when i looked was basically just issuing a travel warning and base precautions. i am not saying this won't change, i don't know. but i am saying currently a lot of people are blowing a lot of stuff completely out of proportion just like they did with ebola. Now there are 880 confirmed and 1020 suspected. Potentially a 73 fold increase in 3 weeks. It is flu season so all the suspected are likly not the virus in question. 20+ healthcare workers even the primary infectious disease MD that was sent in to investigate the outbreak has come down with it. and then the 'downplay everything, lets be inactive' chinese govt has locled down 14 cities with 40 million people in them Looking at the totality of the situation as we know it, it looks different this time. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:19:22 AM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
It’s reassuring for me. I want to believe it’s a natural Coronavirus and the threat is overblown. My assumption is panic is what is truly driving the spread of the disease in China, forcing people with a flu or the common cold to the hospital where they are exposed to the Coronavirus through proximity to the infected and having multiple infections is what is doing the damage. You certainly are an SME and I hope you’re correct. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:25:39 AM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I think the concern is that 3 weeks ago there were 26 suspected cases. Now there are 880 confirmed and 1020 suspected. Potentially a 23 fold increase in 3 weeks. It is flu season so all the suspected are likly not the virus in question. 20+ healthcare workers even the primary infectious disease MD that was sent in to investigate the outbreak has come down with it. and then the 'downplay everything, lets be inactive' chinese govt has locled down 14 cities with 40 million people in them Looking at the totality of the situation as we know it, it looks different this time. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:26:00 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
i am far from an SME on anything but how we would have responded back in the day. but i do have some insight on how that stuff is/was handled and how planning is done. we are FAAAAAAAARRRRR beyond the capabilities we had when i was active. and the world is lightyears better at this stuff in detection and mitigation. it's actually taken serious today as a public health issue vs a few eggheads looking at it from a warfare perspective. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
It’s reassuring for me. I want to believe it’s a natural Coronavirus and the threat is overblown. My assumption is panic is what is truly driving the spread of the disease in China, forcing people with a flu or the common cold to the hospital where they are exposed to the Coronavirus through proximity to the infected and having multiple infections is what is doing the damage. You certainly are an SME and I hope you’re correct. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 10:27:04 AM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
And it is making them look incompetent and reactive - so I don't think they are doing it for "PR". Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: I disagree. There has never been a similar response to this one. This is a very extreme response As for the virus itself? Wash your hands, dont touch your face, and avoid surfaces in public like handrails. Obviously doors need to be opened. Just wash your hands. Ill be bringing my son to my gyms daycare untill it gets bad, if it gets bad. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 11:14:02 AM EDT
[#27]
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Posted: 1/24/2020 11:14:52 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
https://patch.com/california/sanleandro/alameda-county-residents-tested-deadly-coronavirus results were negative. just like ebola EVERY idiot tested for this will make the news as a sensational we gonna die headline and the negative results buried in the story. if we had MASSIVE deaths and way underreported numbers this would actually be showing massive breakouts everywhere by now. not just a one off here or there. jmho. There are no confirmed cases in Alameda County, as officials await test results from the US Centers for Disease Control. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 11:26:51 AM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Put me in the camp of "visible response does not match reported numbers". as a side note, i assume tamiflu and similar anti-virals are useless against this virus as everywhere i have seen discussions about this disease, they state no treatment or cure. btw, this is a boogaloo party i hope in am not 'invited' to. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 11:28:52 AM EDT
[#30]
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Posted: 1/24/2020 11:31:56 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
My first thought as well, the numbers are most likely being under-reported... Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Do you think they might be underreporting? ETA not trying to be a smartass. I think they are. Highly contagious with a 2 week incubation? Fun times. Of course, it could also be overblown. Time will tell. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 11:57:03 AM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
It's not just a reporting factor. It's also incubation timeline and level of contagion. Highly contagious with a 2 week incubation? Fun times. Of course, it could also be overblown. Time will tell. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Do you think they might be underreporting? ETA not trying to be a smartass. I think they are. Highly contagious with a 2 week incubation? Fun times. Of course, it could also be overblown. Time will tell. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 11:57:53 AM EDT
[#33]
First person to die under the age of 40 (that I am aware of).
https://time.com/5770924/wuhan-coronavirus-youngest-death/ |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 12:00:14 PM EDT
[#34]
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Posted: 1/24/2020 12:02:10 PM EDT
[#35]
APCs rollin'
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Posted: 1/24/2020 12:02:49 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
you know what "a strain of coronovirus "could be..... a cold and a media headline. stop overthinking this. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: LOL... but you do have a point. Also, (Tweet links to a NYPost article)
stop overthinking this. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 12:04:56 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: 888 cases.... if this is an escaped bio weapon. it's a shitty one in a population of that size. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 12:07:43 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
APCs rollin'
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Posted: 1/24/2020 12:13:03 PM EDT
[#39]
Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions
Not yet peer reviewed, but an interesting read. We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (R_0) to be 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-4.0), indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing. We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, and by 21 January a total of 11,341 people (prediction interval, 9,217-14,245) had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan, we predict the epidemic in Wuhan will be substantially larger by 4 February (191,529 infections; prediction interval, 132,751-273,649), infection will be established in other Chinese cities, and importations to other countries will be more frequent. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 1:20:59 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions Not yet peer reviewed, but an interesting read. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions Not yet peer reviewed, but an interesting read. We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (R_0) to be 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-4.0), indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing. We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, and by 21 January a total of 11,341 people (prediction interval, 9,217-14,245) had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan, we predict the epidemic in Wuhan will be substantially larger by 4 February (191,529 infections; prediction interval, 132,751-273,649), infection will be established in other Chinese cities, and importations to other countries will be more frequent. How do you say "not great, not terrible" in Mandarin? |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 1:49:41 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: R(0) of 3.6? How do you say "not great, not terrible" in Mandarin? |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 2:01:56 PM EDT
[#42]
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Posted: 1/24/2020 2:08:38 PM EDT
[#43]
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Posted: 1/24/2020 2:11:40 PM EDT
[#44]
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Posted: 1/24/2020 2:29:37 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions Not yet peer reviewed, but an interesting read. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 2:41:08 PM EDT
[#46]
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7923913/Shanghai-Disney-closed-Saturday-help-prevent-spread-virus.html
China's deadly new virus could have infected 350,000 people in a single city by the end of the month, according to experts who warn doctors are only diagnosing one in every 20 cases. A top medic who contracted Coronavirus says the deadly respiratory disease is so contagious it can be transmitted through the eyes. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 3:18:06 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote History
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Posted: 1/24/2020 4:05:44 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I'm not worried until TBS is worried; a lesson learned from the Ebola thing. I also have everything one could need still put away; another hold-over from Ebola. |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 4:54:04 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
No disrespect to TBS, but you should rely on your own research, not some internet persona, again no offense to TBS |
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Posted: 1/24/2020 5:24:35 PM EDT
[#50]
Updated the OP
The evidence is pretty strong that hospitals aren't testing people in China and are overloaded. If they aren't tested they aren't added to the official stats. So maintaining the official counts in the OP seems pretty useless 
Cases popping up all over the US, I will get articles posted to the OP soon. |
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