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Posted: 3/20/2017 6:30:10 PM EDT
link


The longer a person uses opioids, the greater the risk of forming a deadly addiction. But just how long does it take to switch from being a short-term user—say, while you’re dealing with pain after a surgery—to a long-term, potentially problematic user? A few weeks? A month? According to a new study, that transition could take just a matter of days.
...
When patients get an initial opioid prescription that’s just a one-day supply, they have about a six-percent chance of being on opioids for a year or longer. But if that first prescription is for a three-day supply, the probability of long-term use starts inching up. With an initial five-day supply, the chance jumps to about 10 percent. With a six-day supply, the chance hits 12 percent. With 10-day’s worth, the odds of still being on opioids a year later hits roughly 20 percent. That’s according to the new study’s lead author Bradley Martin, a professor of pharmaceutical evaluation and policy at the University of Arkansas for Medical Science. It’s a fast rise, Martin said to Ars. “We really didn’t expect that.”

And, according to the rest of the data—published Friday in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR)—things just keep getting worse from there.
...
View Quote
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 6:33:34 PM EDT
[#1]
I haven't gone over the data carefully, but I would suspect confounding variables. People don't get initial 10 day opoid prescriptions for minor things.
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 6:34:51 PM EDT
[#2]
Wired. I've had several surgeries from which I was on meds for a couple months. I actually was glad to quit.

Not doubting the study though, I've seen people turn into pill heads pretty quick.
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 6:35:25 PM EDT
[#3]
Research methodology matters
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 6:37:34 PM EDT
[#4]
Data is flawed, or made up entirely to promote someone's agenda.
 
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 6:38:04 PM EDT
[#5]
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 6:39:33 PM EDT
[#6]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Data is flawed, or made up entirely to promote someone's agenda.
 
View Quote
This.
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 6:39:42 PM EDT
[#7]
Quoted:
link


The longer a person uses opioids, the greater the risk of forming a deadly addiction. But just how long does it take to switch from being a short-term user—say, while you’re dealing with pain after a surgery—to a long-term, potentially problematic user? A few weeks? A month? According to a new study, that transition could take just a matter of days.
...
When patients get an initial opioid prescription that’s just a one-day supply, they have about a six-percent chance of being on opioids for a year or longer. But if that first prescription is for a three-day supply, the probability of long-term use starts inching up. With an initial five-day supply, the chance jumps to about 10 percent. With a six-day supply, the chance hits 12 percent. With 10-day’s worth, the odds of still being on opioids a year later hits roughly 20 percent. That’s according to the new study’s lead author Bradley Martin, a professor of pharmaceutical evaluation and policy at the University of Arkansas for Medical Science. It’s a fast rise, Martin said to Ars. “We really didn’t expect that.”

And, according to the rest of the data—published Friday in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR)—things just keep getting worse from there.
...
View Quote
View Quote


Isn't that kind of a chicken-egg thing?

The people with longer prescriptions might end up on them longer because they have long term issues?  Of course it is addictive stuff, but yeah, if someone is prescribed a single day's dose, it makes sense that they are less likely to be on it a year later than someone prescribed for a month for numerous reasons.  

Perhaps the article is poorly worded but causation is not demonstrated based on what's written.  I do believe people are more likely to become dependent the longer they're on it, because that's how the drug works, but I don't see how the professor proved anything.  RIFF though.
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 6:40:27 PM EDT
[#8]
I had shoulder surgery over Christmas.  Was prescribed hydros along with other stuff.  

Went two days on the hydros and quit.  Dunno how anybody can enjoy that kinda shit.
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 6:41:42 PM EDT
[#9]
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Quoted:
I call bullsh*t.
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What he said. 

And I'm not taking the time to find and read the study in depth. I'll let somebody else analyze the shit out of it. But consider me skeptical as hell. 
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 6:42:10 PM EDT
[#10]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Data is flawed, or made up entirely to promote someone's agenda.
 
View Quote
Doctors aren't famous for statistical literacy, but if you're saying the CDC is full of shit, how about showing your work?
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 6:43:27 PM EDT
[#11]
And how many of those people had underlying mental issues?
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 6:44:02 PM EDT
[#12]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Wired. I've had several surgeries from which I was on meds for a couple months. I actually was glad to quit.

Not doubting the study though, I've seen people turn into pill heads pretty quick.
View Quote
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 6:45:34 PM EDT
[#13]
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 6:46:26 PM EDT
[#14]
... does it matter?

The real question should be:  why should someone else get to analyze those risks and make those choices for you?
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 6:46:44 PM EDT
[#15]
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 6:48:45 PM EDT
[#16]
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 6:49:06 PM EDT
[#17]
20% of the population is weak minded with no willpower. Those 20% are more likely to abuse any substance that can be abused.

Correlation=/causation.
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 6:50:42 PM EDT
[#18]
Umm... Isn't the study on whether or not individuals who are prescribed opioids for pain are then still being prescribed opioids for pain a year later?

What does this have to do with becoming a possible substance abusing druggy?

Would you call a guy prescribed opioids for chronic back pain a druggy for still being prescribed opioids by his doctor in the next year?

I'm confused... Am I reading this right? Missing something?
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 6:52:12 PM EDT
[#19]
I have to admit:  choosing to take medication rather than be in pain is addictive.
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 6:57:47 PM EDT
[#20]
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 6:59:12 PM EDT
[#21]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Umm... Isn't the study on whether or not individuals who are prescribed opioids for pain are then still being prescribed opioids for pain a year later?

What does this have to do with becoming a possible substance abusing druggy?

Would you call a guy prescribed opioids for chronic back pain a druggy for still being prescribed opioids by his doctor in the next year?

I'm confused... Am I reading this right? Missing something?
View Quote
I think it's more a study about overprescription of opioids than about labeling people "druggies." The article links to the study itself, and I read the summary. I'm not a doctor or statistician, but I think they're just trying to gather data on long-term opioid use, and how it starts. I didn't see any judgements in it.

From the study: "the extent to which chronic opioid use was intentional versus the outgrowth of acute use is not known".
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 7:01:26 PM EDT
[#22]
Hmm

I have been given months of opioids while waiting for a surgery (gall stones) and I definately dont go seeking opioids.
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 7:02:36 PM EDT
[#23]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Umm... Isn't the study on whether or not individuals who are prescribed opioids for pain are then still being prescribed opioids for pain a year later?

What does this have to do with becoming a possible substance abusing druggy?

Would you call a guy prescribed opioids for chronic back pain a druggy for still being prescribed opioids by his doctor in the next year?

I'm confused... Am I reading this right? Missing something?
View Quote
You're not missing anything. Using logic and common sense is not allowed nowadays.  Most articles about opiates operate under the assumption that opiates are prescribed for one reason only: to create junkies.  They act like there are no patients with long term chronic pain who might benefit from opiates. 

The so-called reporting on this topic is like the rest of so-called reporting.  It's mostly BS wrapped up in drivel. 
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 7:03:14 PM EDT
[#24]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
I call bullsh*t.

ETA:  if you look at studies done on patients after they leave burn units (where the opioids flow like a mighty river), the number of people who turn into addicts is very small.
View Quote
Yeah? What do you know?

Link Posted: 3/20/2017 7:03:29 PM EDT
[#25]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
Wired. I've had several surgeries from which I was on meds for a couple months. I actually was glad to quit.

Not doubting the study though, I've seen people turn into pill heads pretty quick.
Off-topic but Godamnit the thought of your avatar SONOFABITCH.
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 7:06:06 PM EDT
[#26]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
20% of the population is weak minded with no willpower. Those 20% are more likely to abuse any substance that can be abused.

Correlation=/causation.
View Quote
And what about the people who were already addicted before the treatment for which the script was written?

Its not like addicts wear a sign that says "if you give me opiates, i will have a hard time stopping."
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 7:06:17 PM EDT
[#27]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
I call bullsh*t.

ETA:  if you look at studies done on patients after they leave burn units (where the opioids flow like a mighty river), the number of people who turn into addicts is very small.
View Quote
Probably due to operant conditioning in the burn ward.

"Here, take these pills/this iv narcotic and then in a few minutes, we'll peel your scabs and dead skin off, debride to healthy tissue, and then scrub your wounds."
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 7:09:31 PM EDT
[#28]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
I have to admit:  choosing to take medication rather than be in pain is addictive.
View Quote
QFT
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 7:09:38 PM EDT
[#29]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
And what about the people who were already addicted before the treatment for which the script was written?

Its not like addicts wear a sign that says "if you give me opiates, i will have a hard time stopping."
View Quote
Study says that all the patients were not prior opioid users, though I don't know how or if they verified that. The study pulled data from insurance databases.
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 7:09:41 PM EDT
[#30]
Absolutely, Dilaudid did to me.  It took several weeks to get completely off it.
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 7:11:36 PM EDT
[#31]
"Patients who continued opioid therapy for =1 year were more likely to be older, female, have a pain diagnosis before opioid initiation, initiated on higher doses of opioids, and publically or self-insured"



LOL, older Medicaid or no pay women with a hx of pain get hooked.

Latest from the online medical journal "Duh!"
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 7:13:20 PM EDT
[#32]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
I haven't gone over the data carefully, but I would suspect confounding variables. People don't get initial 10 day opoid prescriptions for minor things.
View Quote
Ding ding ding.
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 7:21:39 PM EDT
[#33]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
You're not missing anything. Using logic and common sense is not allowed nowadays.  Most articles about opiates operate under the assumption that opiates are prescribed for one reason only: to create junkies.  They act like there are no patients with long term chronic pain who might benefit from opiates. 

The so-called reporting on this topic is like the rest of so-called reporting.  It's mostly BS wrapped up in drivel. 
View Quote
Spot on.
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 7:31:48 PM EDT
[#34]
I get constipated from too much Tylenol.

I'd die a horrible death if I was on opioids for ten days.
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 7:33:29 PM EDT
[#35]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
I have to admit:  choosing to take medication rather than be in pain is addictive.
View Quote
+1
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 7:35:29 PM EDT
[#36]
I've had some injuries that opiods were a god send.  Guess what. I have no addiction to them.

I may be addicted to doing stupid things but I sure as hell don't give a shit about opiods.
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 7:38:06 PM EDT
[#37]
I've never had any analgesic effect or intoxication from them.  They just make my stomach hurt.
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 7:38:22 PM EDT
[#38]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Probably due to operant conditioning in the burn ward.

"Here, take these pills/this iv narcotic and then in a few minutes, we'll peel your scabs and dead skin off, debride to healthy tissue, and then scrub your wounds."
View Quote
That doesn't seem to work with heroin junkies.

Overdose, die. Narcan brings you back.

Overdose again(sometimes within a day or 2, lather-rinse-repeat.
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 7:45:36 PM EDT
[#39]
I was on IV Dilaudid for 10 days when hospitalized with pancreatitis. Then they sent me home cold turkey . I was miserable for 3 days and still can't understand why anyone would do that for fun.
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 7:48:22 PM EDT
[#40]
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 7:48:53 PM EDT
[#41]
I think it's bullshit. I have had somewhere around 100 kidney stones and up until this year I've had a running scrip for 50 mg demerol. I would call the doc every October and get another scrip of 30 pills just to keep legal since that's when the previous scrip would expire. Starting this year I have to actively be having a stone attack before I can get a scrip and then it will only be 10 pills which is enough to get through just one day of pain. The dosage has always been 2 50mg pills plus 1 phenergan every 4 hours.  

The reason I can't get the demerol anymore is because of the damn addicts. I hate to take the demerol because I don't like how they make me feel but I need them when I'm having the pain. I have never wanted to continue taking them after a stone and the longest I took them was 10 days. I have been plagued with the stones for 27 years.
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 7:49:24 PM EDT
[#42]
And 10 days without it turned them in heroin addicts.
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 7:51:59 PM EDT
[#43]
That story is a bunch of bullshit that is going to lead to even more patients suffering in agony due to government meddling in doctor/patient relationships for fear of addiction. All you people that hype opiates as the problem, rather than blaming addicts for their own actions, deserve to be denied pain meds when the time inevitably comes in your life that you need pain relief.
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 8:00:12 PM EDT
[#44]
Shit - I dumped a lot of crap into people. I'd say suicide is a bigger concern than opioid addiction. For me, anyway.
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 8:01:54 PM EDT
[#45]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
And what about the people who were already addicted before the treatment for which the script was written?

Its not like addicts wear a sign that says "if you give me opiates, i will have a hard time stopping."
View Quote
Some of them do. If they're hitting me up for Hydrocodone for a simple ankle sprain, I start getting suspicious. 

When their state controlled substance database report shows 85 scripts for 10-30 Hydrocodone/Oxycodone each time from 40 physicians in a year, that's basically wearing a sign.

When they forget to tell me about the Suboxone they've been on for a year, that's a sign. 

This is a retrospective survey of insurance company records. It's not a controlled, prospective study (which would be really hard to do). So, the conclusions that can be drawn are limited. 
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 8:06:10 PM EDT
[#46]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Doctors aren't famous for statistical literacy, but if you're saying the CDC is full of shit, how about showing your work?
View Quote
Uh, docs are known quite well for statistical literacy--research and reading the research are major parts of our training.

Of course one must be skeptical of the CDC--it has become a political organization that fits "research" to political positions. For example, the CDC on guns as a disease and supporting more gun control.
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 8:07:30 PM EDT
[#47]
2 days worth is a 100%   chance of turning me into a raging and violent SOB.

Can't handle that stuff at all.

I'm told I don't shut up the first day. No one is sure was worse.
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 8:10:11 PM EDT
[#48]
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 8:15:17 PM EDT
[#49]
Been on opioids many times.   Many operations from playing college football, chronic back pain with surgery and getting shot 3 times in the gut.  Not addicted to them although they are nice to have, especially with a few beers or a couple bourbon drinks.
Guess I'm part of the 80%.
Link Posted: 3/20/2017 8:16:35 PM EDT
[#50]
I had them for an accident and I stopped taking them for fear I would have issues (some in my family have). They are not worth the trouble in my opinion.
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