User Panel
User Panel
User Panel
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Posted: 8/27/2019 4:33:41 PM EDT
[#1]
No for the opposite view
The U.S. Consumer drives 2/3 of GDP. No recession Sorry your gal lost. The efforts of the Wall Street pundits and financial class to talk the American consumer into creating a recession is failing. The Consumer Confidence Index remains at historic highs as U.S. workers/consumers are confident in their economic position. Yes, Main Street USA is optimistic about current and future expectations. US Consumer Confidence at 19 Year High |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 4:39:38 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
No for the opposite view The U.S. Consumer drives 2/3 of GDP. No recession Sorry your gal lost. The efforts of the Wall Street pundits and financial class to talk the American consumer into creating a recession is failing. The Consumer Confidence Index remains at historic highs as U.S. workers/consumers are confident in their economic position. Yes, Main Street USA is optimistic about current and future expectations. US Consumer Confidence at 19 Year High Are you 12? |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 4:47:35 PM EDT
[#3]
I try to take things with a little light heartedness on the internet.
But to keep it on topic. I'm grateful for a positive counterpoint to the doom and gloom of a recession. My problem is that, no matter what the American consumer does, we still have a lot of cheap money floating around funding quite a few bubbles. The American consumer is one of those bubbles, constantly consuming and racking up debt to do so. Despite the positive outlook in terms of mainstreet. I really do not have any confidence at all in the financial situation of this country. |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 4:55:23 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Sorry your girl lost? Are you 12? far from it. What I am is optimistic. What we are seeing with the economy is a de-coupling of Chamber of Commerce and Wall Street interests from the Main Street Economy which has historically driven growth and innovation of the American economy. Wall Street does not drive GDP, it serves its own interests and that of the Institutional Investor and not the American Public. The Chamber of Commerce serves itself and the Institutional investors. Not the American Economy. |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 4:57:46 PM EDT
[#5]
maybe no one is buying bonds because they are making too much putting their money in the market.
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Posted: 8/27/2019 4:58:27 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I try to take things with a little light heartedness on the internet. But to keep it on topic. I'm grateful for a positive counterpoint to the doom and gloom of a recession. My problem is that, no matter what the American consumer does, we still have a lot of cheap money floating around funding quite a few bubbles. The American consumer is one of those bubbles, constantly consuming and racking up debt to do so. Despite the positive outlook in terms of mainstreet. I really do not have any confidence at all in the financial situation of this country. Trump is the best president of my lifetime and he kept a recession away as best as anyone could. We are setup from 10 years ago for a major problem. I dont know when it will happen but I dont think it looks good. |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 4:58:32 PM EDT
[#7]
Sell Sell Sell
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Posted: 8/27/2019 5:16:08 PM EDT
[#8]
Quoted:
is viewed by fixed income traders as an important recession prognosticator, |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 5:17:05 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Sell Sell Sell |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 5:17:32 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
They have never correctly predicted jack shit. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
is viewed by fixed income traders as an important recession prognosticator, |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 5:29:05 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
maybe no one is buying bonds because they are making too much putting their money in the market. |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 5:31:01 PM EDT
[#12]
Trump pleaded with the Fed to lower interest rates last year and again in early 2019. What did the Fed do? On occasion they raised rates when they should have lowered them. Trump was signaling to the Fed to lower rates in order to give the U.S. economy and the White House more flexibility to deal with the Chinese retaliatory tariffs that Trump knew would be coming. The Fed is supposed to operate outside the influence of politics. Having said that, it is sad that the Fed is not on the same page as our President when it comes to managing the economy and it's foreign influences. Recently the Fed chairman tweeted/commented in retaliation to comments President Trump made about the Fed. That brings a lot into question. It may even make one think that the Fed may actually be intentionally trying to sink Trump's chances of re-election in 2020.
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Posted: 8/27/2019 5:32:50 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
maybe no one is buying bonds because they are making too much putting their money in the market. |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 5:35:15 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Sorry your girl lost? Are you 12? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
No for the opposite view The U.S. Consumer drives 2/3 of GDP. No recession Sorry your gal lost. The efforts of the Wall Street pundits and financial class to talk the American consumer into creating a recession is failing. The Consumer Confidence Index remains at historic highs as U.S. workers/consumers are confident in their economic position. Yes, Main Street USA is optimistic about current and future expectations. US Consumer Confidence at 19 Year High Are you 12? Manufacturing orders are dropping. If capital manufacturing drops that means no one is tooling up for expansion and new business. Housing market softening even with low rates and easy credit. Personal debt up. Auto sales down first six months of the year. Many of the farm markets are in serious decline due to the tariffs, never to be regained due to the Chicom’s creating new food sources elsewhere. Even a “soft” recession as under George Bush Ekder could cost Trump the election. |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 5:35:31 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
No for the opposite view The U.S. Consumer drives 2/3 of GDP. No recession Sorry your gal lost. The efforts of the Wall Street pundits and financial class to talk the American consumer into creating a recession is failing. The Consumer Confidence Index remains at historic highs as U.S. workers/consumers are confident in their economic position. Yes, Main Street USA is optimistic about current and future expectations. US Consumer Confidence at 19 Year High |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 5:39:32 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: No Sir, far from it. What I am is optimistic. What we are seeing with the economy is a de-coupling of Chamber of Commerce and Wall Street interests from the Main Street Economy which has historically driven growth and innovation of the American economy. Wall Street does not drive GDP, it serves its own interests and that of the Institutional Investor and not the American Public. The Chamber of Commerce serves itself and the Institutional investors. Not the American Economy. I'm optimistic about the economy as well but have no idea how your post ties into the OP. |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 5:44:22 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Trump pleaded with the Fed to lower interest rates last year and again in early 2019. What did the Fed do? On occasion they raised rates when they should have lowered them. Trump was signaling to the Fed to lower rates in order to give the U.S. economy and the White House more flexibility to deal with the Chinese retaliatory tariffs that Trump knew would be coming. The Fed is supposed to operate outside the influence of politics. Having said that, it is sad that the Fed is not on the same page as our President when it comes to managing the economy and it's foreign influences. Recently the Fed chairman tweeted/commented in retaliation to comments President Trump made about the Fed. That brings a lot into question. It may even make one think that the Fed may actually be intentionally trying to sink Trump's chances of re-election in 2020. Why is it you believe that interest rates pegged at 0 in perpetuity is sound economic theory? Why do you feel that we should purposely remove one of the most important economic levers we have to combat a future recession, during a time of economic growth? The 100's of billions of dollars of free money being spent to artificially inflate stock prices the last 10 years just wasn't enough? |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 6:26:57 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Trump pleaded with the Fed to lower interest rates last year and again in early 2019. What did the Fed do? On occasion they raised rates when they should have lowered them. Trump was signaling to the Fed to lower rates in order to give the U.S. economy and the White House more flexibility to deal with the Chinese retaliatory tariffs that Trump knew would be coming. The Fed is supposed to operate outside the influence of politics. Having said that, it is sad that the Fed is not on the same page as our President when it comes to managing the economy and it's foreign influences. Recently the Fed chairman tweeted/commented in retaliation to comments President Trump made about the Fed. That brings a lot into question. It may even make one think that the Fed may actually be intentionally trying to sink Trump's chances of re-election in 2020. |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 6:29:02 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
lol Trump and everyone here was screaming at the Fed to start raising rates and ending QE in Obama's second term. Trump gets elected, economy takes off, and everyone does a 180??? Why is it you believe that interest rates pegged at 0 in perpetuity is sound economic theory? Why do you feel that we should purposely remove one of the most important economic levers we have to combat a future recession, during a time of economic growth? The 100's of billions of dollars of free money being spent to artificially inflate stock prices the last 10 years just wasn't enough? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Trump pleaded with the Fed to lower interest rates last year and again in early 2019. What did the Fed do? On occasion they raised rates when they should have lowered them. Trump was signaling to the Fed to lower rates in order to give the U.S. economy and the White House more flexibility to deal with the Chinese retaliatory tariffs that Trump knew would be coming. The Fed is supposed to operate outside the influence of politics. Having said that, it is sad that the Fed is not on the same page as our President when it comes to managing the economy and it's foreign influences. Recently the Fed chairman tweeted/commented in retaliation to comments President Trump made about the Fed. That brings a lot into question. It may even make one think that the Fed may actually be intentionally trying to sink Trump's chances of re-election in 2020. Why is it you believe that interest rates pegged at 0 in perpetuity is sound economic theory? Why do you feel that we should purposely remove one of the most important economic levers we have to combat a future recession, during a time of economic growth? The 100's of billions of dollars of free money being spent to artificially inflate stock prices the last 10 years just wasn't enough? It would be comical if it wasn't screwing us over........... |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 6:32:05 PM EDT
[#20]
Quoted:
Long-term Treasury rates added to their monthlong slide on Tuesday, aggravating a key yield-curve inversion and sending the 10-year yield to its lowest level against the 2-year rate since 2007.
The yield on the benchmark 2-year Treasury note, more sensitive to changes in Federal Reserve policy, fell to 1.526%, 5 basis points above the 10-year note’s rate of 1.476% after closing inverted on Monday. Before August, the last inversion of this part of the yield curve was the one that began in December 2005, two years before the financial crisis and subsequent recession. The spread between the 3-month Treasury yield and that of the 10-year note — the Fed’s preferred inversion metric — slumped to -52 basis points, its lowest since March 2007. The 30-year bond yielded 1.955% and was poised to close below the 3-month bill yield for the first time since 2007. A 10-year rate below the 2-year yield is viewed by fixed income traders as an important recession prognosticator, marking an unusual phenomenon as bond holders receive better compensation in the short term. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retraced a 155-point gain on Tuesday as bond yields fell. |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 6:35:09 PM EDT
[#21]
The Fed isn’t gonna fix trump dumbass trade war. He’s good at deflecting, but it was about time someone told him “no”.
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Posted: 8/27/2019 7:07:00 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The Fed isn’t gonna fix trump dumbass trade war. He’s good at deflecting, but it was about time someone told him “no”. The real economic problems in our country and the world have nothing to do with a trade "war", except in china... they are getting fucked hard. |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 7:09:03 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Trade "war", get real. He is negotiating with a country that only understand force and cheating. The fact that all previous presidents were too big of babies to do it is the actual story here, and nonetheless it is not going to tank a good economy. The real economic problems in our country and the world have nothing to do with a trade "war", except in china... they are getting fucked hard. |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 7:16:36 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
No for the opposite view The U.S. Consumer drives 2/3 of GDP. No recession Sorry your gal lost. The efforts of the Wall Street pundits and financial class to talk the American consumer into creating a recession is failing. The Consumer Confidence Index remains at historic highs as U.S. workers/consumers are confident in their economic position. Yes, Main Street USA is optimistic about current and future expectations. US Consumer Confidence at 19 Year High |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 9:21:56 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I guess we’ll see next year. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: Trade "war", get real. He is negotiating with a country that only understand force and cheating. The fact that all previous presidents were too big of babies to do it is the actual story here, and nonetheless it is not going to tank a good economy. The real economic problems in our country and the world have nothing to do with a trade "war", except in china... they are getting fucked hard. Even if trump loses the election and 2 years later there is a recession they will blame trump. Maybe you think we should just keep sucking China's dick? |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 9:25:56 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
bullshit! They correctly predicted 22 of the last 4 recessions! Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
is viewed by fixed income traders as an important recession prognosticator, bullshit! They correctly predicted 22 of the last 4 recessions! 
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Posted: 8/27/2019 9:36:20 PM EDT
[#27]
Happily refinance debt at 2%. No problem.
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Posted: 8/27/2019 9:40:19 PM EDT
[#28]
Copper is trending down. What does that indicate? Anyone? Beuller?
The yield curve is inverted twice last week for very short durations each but it has stayed inverted overnight and all of today with a trend towards more inversion than less. The 30 year bond is below 2%. Rumors were floated out last week that the Federal reserve will initiate another stimulus package (Q.E.),. Even the constant tweeting that China is wanting to talk hasn't rallied the market like it would have done just two weeks ago. Many of the worlds leading countries are printing monies like our Fed is about to do. Silver closed at about $18.11 today and after market trading has it at $18.25 rfn. What does it all mean? TF if I know but "something" is happening and it's seems a bit "fuckey". |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 9:41:36 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
If there is a recession the media will blame trump some how some way sure but that does not make it fact. Even if trump loses the election and 2 years later there is a recession they will blame trump. Maybe you think we should just keep sucking China's dick? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted: Trade "war", get real. He is negotiating with a country that only understand force and cheating. The fact that all previous presidents were too big of babies to do it is the actual story here, and nonetheless it is not going to tank a good economy. The real economic problems in our country and the world have nothing to do with a trade "war", except in china... they are getting fucked hard. Even if trump loses the election and 2 years later there is a recession they will blame trump. Maybe you think we should just keep sucking China's dick? |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 9:51:11 PM EDT
[#30]
At 2pm there was a line of 40 people at the DMV today. A worker was going through the line to split people into tag renewals or new registrations. 3 people were renewing, 37 had envelopes from dealers in their hands for new registration.
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Posted: 8/27/2019 9:58:40 PM EDT
[#31]
From Trumps election to today the S&P 500 and the
30 year Treasury has the same total return. Quote HistoryQuoted:
maybe no one is buying bonds because they are making too much putting their money in the market. |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 10:06:03 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Trump pleaded with the Fed to lower interest rates last year and again in early 2019. What did the Fed do? On occasion they raised rates when they should have lowered them. Trump was signaling to the Fed to lower rates in order to give the U.S. economy and the White House more flexibility to deal with the Chinese retaliatory tariffs that Trump knew would be coming. The Fed is supposed to operate outside the influence of politics. Having said that, it is sad that the Fed is not on the same page as our President when it comes to managing the economy and it's foreign influences. Recently the Fed chairman tweeted/commented in retaliation to comments President Trump made about the Fed. That brings a lot into question. It may even make one think that the Fed may actually be intentionally trying to sink Trump's chances of re-election in 2020. Interest rates should not be centrally planned, they should be set by the market. And if the Fed were to unwind their balance sheet and allow the market to set rates, interest rates would soar and instill some rationality back into this crazed frothy bubble of an economy. Adding more fuel to the fire by lowering interest rates might get the can kicked a little further, but when it finally starts raining it's going to pour that much worse. |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 10:11:00 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The Fed should not be lowering rates. The Fed should have never have artificially surpassed rates for 10 years. What they have done and are doing is creating massive imbalances within our economy. Interest rates should not be centrally planned, they should be set by the market. And if the Fed were to unwind their balance sheet and allow the market to set rates, interest rates would soar and instill some rationality back into this crazed frothy bubble of an economy. Adding more fuel to the fire by lowering interest rates might get the can kicked a little further, but when it finally starts raining it's going to pour that much worse. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Trump pleaded with the Fed to lower interest rates last year and again in early 2019. What did the Fed do? On occasion they raised rates when they should have lowered them. Trump was signaling to the Fed to lower rates in order to give the U.S. economy and the White House more flexibility to deal with the Chinese retaliatory tariffs that Trump knew would be coming. The Fed is supposed to operate outside the influence of politics. Having said that, it is sad that the Fed is not on the same page as our President when it comes to managing the economy and it's foreign influences. Recently the Fed chairman tweeted/commented in retaliation to comments President Trump made about the Fed. That brings a lot into question. It may even make one think that the Fed may actually be intentionally trying to sink Trump's chances of re-election in 2020. Interest rates should not be centrally planned, they should be set by the market. And if the Fed were to unwind their balance sheet and allow the market to set rates, interest rates would soar and instill some rationality back into this crazed frothy bubble of an economy. Adding more fuel to the fire by lowering interest rates might get the can kicked a little further, but when it finally starts raining it's going to pour that much worse. |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 10:15:36 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
At 2pm there was a line of 40 people at the DMV today. A worker was going through the line to split people into tag renewals or new registrations. 3 people were renewing, 37 had envelopes from dealers in their hands for new registration. |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 10:16:27 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If there is a recession the media will blame trump some how some way sure but that does not make it fact. Even if trump loses the election and 2 years later there is a recession they will blame trump. Maybe you think we should just keep sucking China's dick? The top importer of the commodity, used to make cooking oil and animal feed, has already started buying soybeans from South American for next year, according to people familiar with the matter. While China started purchasing a few cargoes just over a month ago, buyers last week stepped up interest for February and March shipments, said the people, who asked not to be named as the negotiations are private. China buying from South America isn’t new -- producers in Brazil and neighboring countries have been the Asian nation’s main suppliers during the trade war. But locking in purchases this far in advance is a sign that Chinese consumers may be securing themselves against an even more protracted dispute with the U.S.” |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 10:17:04 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Sorry your girl lost? Are you 12? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
No for the opposite view The U.S. Consumer drives 2/3 of GDP. No recession Sorry your gal lost. The efforts of the Wall Street pundits and financial class to talk the American consumer into creating a recession is failing. The Consumer Confidence Index remains at historic highs as U.S. workers/consumers are confident in their economic position. Yes, Main Street USA is optimistic about current and future expectations. US Consumer Confidence at 19 Year High Are you 12? |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 10:21:59 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Raising them will cause a lot of pain.Lots of people (and gov) addicted to super low rates............... If the government had to actually raise taxes through the roof on EVERYBODY to pay for all this shit, people who are currently fine with the government blowing money out the ass on illegal immigrants, social programs and useless wars would be raising hell, but low interest rates and borrowing enables the government to defer the economic pain, and your average joe dumbass is fine with enormous federal spending on whatever because they aren't feeling the pain. Donald "I will end the federal debt in 8 years" Trump is able to rack up trillion + annual budget deficits during our "booming economy" because interest rates are still so ridiculously low. Doesn't matter if the rest of the world is also going down monetary idiocy land, there is going to be a hard global reset. What we are looking at is the end of this whole fiat experiment that began on August 15, 1971, and a return to hard money like gold and silver. And when that happens it's going to be very painful. |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 10:24:55 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That is the opposite of how this works. Increased demand for 30 year Treasury bonds drives interest rates down. What's different from prior times that the yield curve has inverted is that Germany is selling 30 year bonds that yield negative interest. Meanwhile our Federal Reserve have raised their target interest rate higher than the market would price it due to the fact that our (US) bonds are still yielding more than any other comparable government bonds. Of course there are all kinds of other manipulations of a completely free market by governments that also factor into this. Regulations on financial institutions, pension funds, and ect. require them to hold bonds and they are required to be rated at a certain quality. The US Treasury bonds are currently the highest yielding bonds in their class, so naturally if you have to buy bonds in that class you will prefer the US bonds. |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 10:33:03 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The Fed should not be lowering rates. The Fed should have never have artificially suppressed rates for 10 years. What they have done and are doing is creating massive imbalances within our economy. Interest rates should not be centrally planned, they should be set by the market. And if the Fed were to unwind their balance sheet and allow the market to set rates, interest rates would soar and instill some rationality back into this crazed frothy bubble of an economy. Adding more fuel to the fire by lowering interest rates might get the can kicked a little further, but when it finally starts raining it's going to pour that much worse. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Trump pleaded with the Fed to lower interest rates last year and again in early 2019. What did the Fed do? On occasion they raised rates when they should have lowered them. Trump was signaling to the Fed to lower rates in order to give the U.S. economy and the White House more flexibility to deal with the Chinese retaliatory tariffs that Trump knew would be coming. The Fed is supposed to operate outside the influence of politics. Having said that, it is sad that the Fed is not on the same page as our President when it comes to managing the economy and it's foreign influences. Recently the Fed chairman tweeted/commented in retaliation to comments President Trump made about the Fed. That brings a lot into question. It may even make one think that the Fed may actually be intentionally trying to sink Trump's chances of re-election in 2020. Interest rates should not be centrally planned, they should be set by the market. And if the Fed were to unwind their balance sheet and allow the market to set rates, interest rates would soar and instill some rationality back into this crazed frothy bubble of an economy. Adding more fuel to the fire by lowering interest rates might get the can kicked a little further, but when it finally starts raining it's going to pour that much worse. |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 10:42:21 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Probably wont have any effect on pensions though,right? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Long-term Treasury rates added to their monthlong slide on Tuesday, aggravating a key yield-curve inversion and sending the 10-year yield to its lowest level against the 2-year rate since 2007.
The yield on the benchmark 2-year Treasury note, more sensitive to changes in Federal Reserve policy, fell to 1.526%, 5 basis points above the 10-year note’s rate of 1.476% after closing inverted on Monday. Before August, the last inversion of this part of the yield curve was the one that began in December 2005, two years before the financial crisis and subsequent recession. The spread between the 3-month Treasury yield and that of the 10-year note — the Fed’s preferred inversion metric — slumped to -52 basis points, its lowest since March 2007. The 30-year bond yielded 1.955% and was poised to close below the 3-month bill yield for the first time since 2007. A 10-year rate below the 2-year yield is viewed by fixed income traders as an important recession prognosticator, marking an unusual phenomenon as bond holders receive better compensation in the short term. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retraced a 155-point gain on Tuesday as bond yields fell.  
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Posted: 8/27/2019 10:43:42 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
You actually believe that if the Fed were to disband, unwind its balance sheet and stop price fixing interest rates, market interest rates would be lower than what they are currently? That's impossible. |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 10:53:39 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
No, I’m saying that the Feds target interest rate isn’t nearly as powerful as you think it is. Unless they undertake more significant actions to try and enforce it, which would be balance sheet activities, like resuming the selling off of their bonds. And ending the Fed and selling off their entire balance sheet in one go would crash the entire economy, so you’d be silly to do so. The ECB and Bank of Japan have for years been engaged in far bigger shenanigans than the Fed along with the Chinese central bank being endlessly willing to manipulate their currency. This has an effect on the market and interest rate for US government securities. If you plan to unwind the Fed overnight you’re effectively playing a game of musical chairs and volunteering to be the first one out, and doing so when you’re stronger than your opponents. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
You actually believe that if the Fed were to disband, unwind its balance sheet and stop price fixing interest rates, market interest rates would be lower than what they are currently? That's impossible. At this point they're whistling through the graveyard and hoping they don't lose control like they almost did in 2008. We'll see what happens but I'm not sure anyone will like the outcome. |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 10:54:23 PM EDT
[#43]
If the Federal Reserve started rapidly unloading their balance sheet, the initial price movement would be bonds down and yields up. What comes next would be a dump in the economy and a hoarding of US Treasuries and Federal Reserve Notes.
Hyperdeflation is every bit as bad as it's made out to be x100. The world as you know it would be over. Congress can get away with trillion dollar deficits because the deflationary forces nipping at the heels of the economy are that large. |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 11:21:15 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
bullshit! They correctly predicted 22 of the last 4 recessions! Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
is viewed by fixed income traders as an important recession prognosticator, 
The bond market is actually pretty smart. |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 11:31:54 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
maybe no one is buying bonds because they are making too much putting their money in the market. |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 11:43:58 PM EDT
[#46]
Also the Fed will be forced to start another round of QE. There is a very real shortage of US dollars out in the world. Look for large credit swaps between the US and the EU to happen again just like in 2008.
Interesting times ahead. Bubbles everywhere. Pension fund failures will be one of the most painful things to come in the next recession. Corporate debt also is going to be another issue especially with so many already rated at BBB. |
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Posted: 8/27/2019 11:47:42 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The U.S. Consumer drives 2/3 of GDP. No recession https://www.lexingtonlaw.com/blog/loans/consumer-debt-statistics-2019.html Total consumer debt is on track to reach $4 trillion by the end of 2018, according to an analysis of Federal Reserve data. That's an amount with twelve zeros. Collectively, Americans owe 26 percent of their income to this debt and spend 10 percent of their individual monthly income on non-mortgage debts like car loans, credit card accounts and student or personal loans. Americans have been amassing more and more debt since 2013 and disposable income has increased as well. Though income is increasing, American consumers are borrowing more money more often. |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 2:39:10 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
“As confusion about the possibility of a trade deal between Washington and Beijing reigns, Chinese soybean buyers are taking no chances and are turning to U.S. rivals in South America to secure supplies for next year. The top importer of the commodity, used to make cooking oil and animal feed, has already started buying soybeans from South American for next year, according to people familiar with the matter. While China started purchasing a few cargoes just over a month ago, buyers last week stepped up interest for February and March shipments, said the people, who asked not to be named as the negotiations are private. China buying from South America isn’t new -- producers in Brazil and neighboring countries have been the Asian nation’s main suppliers during the trade war. But locking in purchases this far in advance is a sign that Chinese consumers may be securing themselves against an even more protracted dispute with the U.S.” Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: If there is a recession the media will blame trump some how some way sure but that does not make it fact. Even if trump loses the election and 2 years later there is a recession they will blame trump. Maybe you think we should just keep sucking China's dick? The top importer of the commodity, used to make cooking oil and animal feed, has already started buying soybeans from South American for next year, according to people familiar with the matter. While China started purchasing a few cargoes just over a month ago, buyers last week stepped up interest for February and March shipments, said the people, who asked not to be named as the negotiations are private. China buying from South America isn’t new -- producers in Brazil and neighboring countries have been the Asian nation’s main suppliers during the trade war. But locking in purchases this far in advance is a sign that Chinese consumers may be securing themselves against an even more protracted dispute with the U.S.” |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 10:37:02 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
So when that other 1/3 retracts a bit and tightens up the discretionary income of the consumers it will have no effect? Not to mention that a large portion of that consumer spending is financed spending and they are going further into debt. The bold part is the problem and the next bubble. https://www.lexingtonlaw.com/blog/loans/consumer-debt-statistics-2019.html Total consumer debt is on track to reach $4 trillion by the end of 2018, according to an analysis of Federal Reserve data. That's an amount with twelve zeros. Collectively, Americans owe 26 percent of their income to this debt and spend 10 percent of their individual monthly income on non-mortgage debts like car loans, credit card accounts and student or personal loans. Americans have been amassing more and more debt since 2013 and disposable income has increased as well. Though income is increasing, American consumers are borrowing more money more often. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
The U.S. Consumer drives 2/3 of GDP. No recession https://www.lexingtonlaw.com/blog/loans/consumer-debt-statistics-2019.html Total consumer debt is on track to reach $4 trillion by the end of 2018, according to an analysis of Federal Reserve data. That's an amount with twelve zeros. Collectively, Americans owe 26 percent of their income to this debt and spend 10 percent of their individual monthly income on non-mortgage debts like car loans, credit card accounts and student or personal loans. Americans have been amassing more and more debt since 2013 and disposable income has increased as well. Though income is increasing, American consumers are borrowing more money more often. Instant gratification/I want it now/don't want to save up the money until I can pay for it seems to be they wave. Pulls demand forward as well-why worry about the future?That's a ways away.......... Governments at all levels probably like it too-lower interest rates mean you can roll over the old shit,and get to spend more since the interest rates are lower now.What could go wrong? Surely it will all end well............ |
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Posted: 8/28/2019 10:40:11 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We should let china fuck us constantly because soy bean oil exports? Really? Do you actually have a plan? No just more OMG trump is starting a trade war oh teh noes. |
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