A recession will hand the bargaining power to their bosses

By Daniel E. Greenleaf
July 4, 2022 11:05 am ET
Workers of a certain age and attitude will have to reckon with the coming recession. Rising inflation and a market downturn guarantee layoffs. The days of expecting employers to be grateful for your application will be gone soon.

People who started work in the past dozen years are about to experience their first tough job market. Younger employees—not all, but many—will need to make more realistic demands of the workplace.

The last recession ended in mid-2009 with unemployment at 9.5%, about 2.5 times what it is today. Anyone who finished college since 2010 has known mostly good times in the job market. The same is true of many who entered the workforce directly from high school. There was competition, but it was for employees rather than jobs.

Workers’ expectations changed, along with their willingness to do hard work. A hot job market gave employees an unrealistic sense of their irreplaceability. At our call centers, absenteeism and attrition climbed. We found less loyalty among technical staffers, who often jumped employers for a slight increase in salary or a change of scenery.

We couldn’t find the committed workers we needed here, so we looked offshore. Today, 70 people work for us in Bangalore, India, and there will be more than 120 by the end of the year. We’ve found the same level of talent as in the U.S., but with turnover this year of less than 5%. And by reducing labor cost, the shift allowed us to reward motivated U.S. employees with more money.

A motivated employee is willing to come into the office. This requirement runs contrary to the post-pandemic work-at-home revolt, but it creates the best experience for the patients we serve, boosts team morale, and helps our employees develop professionally.

I don’t mean to sound like a curmudgeon. As a father of two young adults with strong work ethics, I know there are plenty of wonderful young employees out there. Still, fellow CEOs often tell me how hard it is to recruit and retain employees who want to learn and grow on the job and then stay long-term.

Job security will again take precedence over job hopping. Surging prices and a wave of layoffs would give younger workers a newfound appreciation for their paychecks. Workers will feel fortunate to commit to a company and think about moving up rather than moving on. They’ll think more about what they can do to improve the customer experience and less about what they don’t feel like doing.

A recession will be a rough way to learn this important lesson, but employees and employers will be better for it.

Mr. Greenleaf is president and CEO of Modivcare, a healthcare services company based in Colorado.

Note: the author of this article gets mucho pushback in the comments.

I can see this coming.

Perhaps that causes the youthful workers to liquidate the woke DEI types at companies. I've seen this script before.

Firm handshake, look them in the eye, be happy with 1995 wages, and you’ll be just fine.

“You’re all ungrateful and lazy, that’s why I took our business to India! Now you’ll suffer, hahahahaha….. and my employee issues had nothing to do with pay or work environment. You should be thankful I even allowed you in my company!”

That depends completely on the field.  Young people going into the trades still have the upper hand and will for the foreseeable future.  It seems like no one is going into the trades these days. We struggle to staff our jobs and it's only getting worse.

"WTF. My Indian workers just gang raped my dog like it was a monitor lizard. Then they shat all over the place."

"you're going to be sorry you didn't let us exploit you"

Perhaps, but with boomer retirement in full swing, the labor market has become permanently tighter.

We're at 3.6% unemployment with 11.5 million open jobs. That's 0.1% off the lowest recorded unemployment level.

US corporate management culture hasn't adjusted to the shift in the employee / employer balance of power that has occurred. Current management and HR practices are predicated on the labor glut that has persisted for the past 30+ years due to the size of the baby boom generation. Employers assume they can lowball workers on compensation and easily replace those who don't like it. That is no longer a reasonable assumption.

They’ll just give them endless unemployment.

I don't think that's going to go quite as expected.

Any company that uses India based services should be charged triple their federal taxes.

We couldn't find US workers so we outsourced to India. That are totally as good  Also it's important to come in the office.

Clown shoes.

We had to explain copy/paste to one new Indian. Half of them write worse than a drunk 12yo.

"Workers will feel fortunate to commit to a company and think about moving up rather than moving on. "

That would mean companies would have to demonstrate promoting from within vs hiring from outside like they normally do.

Because most of the folks I know that have changed companies is due to it being easier to "get promoted" somewhere else than the employer they've been with for 3-4 years.

Lol, GFY.

Yeah, I agree with a lot of the comments dragging him. "ok Boomer" sums it up.

I wonder how Daniel would feel about being replaced.

It has started already at my place of employment. Not layoffs, but we have started firing a lot more. Miss lots of work? Buh-bye! Start demanding lots of things and threaten to quit? GTFO!

Laughable, especially in healthcare IT.

CEO’s like to think this is what will happen but it’s a different world today a different mindset.
They don’t get it they are the ones who will go under.

boomer ceo outsources his call center to India.
He is impressed with the low '5%' turnover and cheap wages.
I'm sure his clients are impressed with the thick new accents and poor audio quality of his new help desk.

Either way I don't think a 'rude awakening' is ahead for young employees. They already didn't want to work for him. When his offshore callcenter collapses it will mostly affect him.

It's probably working fine, for now.  But customers will slowly leave.  Ever been to a restaurant and the food isn't as good as it used to be?  

Are you going to:
A) write a letter to the owner explaining the food is different
B) just eat somewhere else

I’d rather not work than have to deal with that blow hard everyday. Unemployment probably pays better anyway.

2.2 % unemployment in my area and it's been rough for the last several years to find anyone worth a shit. I keep saying that companies around here just keep recycling the turds floating in the bowl.


I just lost a young kid because he hurt himself last night and tested positive for weed at the doctor office.

Plus the offshore call center will likely shift their better people to new clients over time.

It is common in that industry to put their top people on new clients. Over time, that A team is rotated out and onto other new clients. Those brought in to backfill have less knowledge and worse communication skills. By the time the customer realizes the decline in quality, they are often locked into a long duration contract and their own in-house, US based team is long disbanded.

At this point fuck work. I’m GenX, mid 40’s, make six figures, but my career is not rewarding for me, I only do it for the money. And 99% of the time would rather be doing something else

Where is the application to be a Warlord when SHTF?

I think he’s wrong, and that mindset will continue to be wrong. You can’t just replace the the huge number of retired/retiring workers with a snap of your fingers. Unless of course you outsource to India or foster a third world invasion of your country.

In Daniel's thoracic cavity, just waiting for someone to do the needful.

I work in one of the only places that pay way over rate.

If the average is 50,000 a year you make 65,000 to 70,000

They dont fuck around though.

I manage the IT department and we hired two entry level techs that start at 25.00 with a review in three months.

They will go up to 30 an hour then and have unlimited access to certs if they want and we pay all of it.

We hire only the best and my job is easy as I dont have to mange the people I hire.

"Sorry, but our business education taught us that focusing on excellence isn't as lucrative as just the bare minimum performance plus sleaze and woke platitudes."

There seems to be less and less woke people where I work.

So you get what you pay for? Funny how that works on both sides of the spectrum.

Also i'm still blown away that India outsourcing is still a thing. I remember in the late 90's/early-00's my friends in IT bitching about this and they showed how much money they really weren't saving and brought most/all services back stateside. What's old is new again I guess.

This all just screams BOOMER.

HR people pushed the pendulum pretty far last time there was high unemployment and an employer-friendly market. Now things have swung the other direction. It was inevitable.

Most of the boomers are in their 70s so hopefully the jobs aren't too physically demanding.

I think bigger factors are the leap to socialism and the continuing international market pressure.

Socialism is sucking the life out of America. You can't give away everything, you can't get everything for free, and socialism is slavery.

FWD: FWD: FWD: FWD: BLAME IT ALL ON THE STOOOPID MILLENNIALS!1!1!1 THE LAST 50 YEARS OF POLICIES AND FAILURES THAT HAVE LEAD TO THIS IS THEIR FAULT!1!1!1

you are incorrect.

The baby boom generation is usually defined as 1946 to 1964. That makes the oldest boomers 76, the youngest 58, and the median age 67. In other words, their retirement wave is peaking around now.

ModivCare might want to start searching for a new CEO

who will want to work there after reading this?

not the best way to attract and inspire top talent

Maybe, but you can also predict some employers will get the same BLM style backlash when they stop playing nice. The other consideration is that some of the current batch of r/antiwork people will be in management positions and will not stop bringing the entitlement mindset, and eventually begin shaping the companies from within.

Most? Did Covid kill everyone in their late 50s and 60-69?

It's a give in that a recession is coming  so that's no shock to anyone and companies will be laying off .


The feds like to lie on actual unemployment numbers but don't be surprised the actual number will be at the 20 % level of unemployed workers in the U.S

Where I work- they prefer to hire folks with no direct experience. There's some "bad habits" in the industry that they don't want to fight. I can see it- I trained a couple people with "Sr" in their title before I was even a Sr and they were by-and-large a waste of payroll. We'd have been better off with fresh folks who are hungry.

It is also pretty easy to stand out- and folks that play their cards right can make Sr in 3-4 years. But every time I turn around it seems like we've got a 22-25 yr old Jr who hits their 12 month anniversary and bails for greener pastures. They've got the power now to pull it off but I imagine at some point the shoe will drop and they'll be "last-in first-out"-ed from their shiny new gig.

However- the boomer that wrote that article seems to be hoping it goes bad so he can offshore more jobs and gloat about being right all along that telework is the devil.

I chose the place to work in my retirement based on their written policy and commitment to hiring from within. I was promoted 3-times.

When that policy ended about 10-years ago the command's culture was destroyed as the right diversity checkmarks were checked. They now had problems making operational mission requirements but they were all of the right color, sex, and sexual orientation.

"But it's, like, happening to MEEEEEEE...."

You have the luxury of this attitude because of those before you who worked hard, were principled, and built, far and away, the most prosperous nation in the history of the world.  The point of this article is that hard times are coming and you won't always have this luxury.

His unlikable position makes you blind to the truth he's telling.

Boomer logic.

Here’s why I disagree with many of the things that are in that article.

1: boomers are leaving the workforce at insane rates. They have hit retirement years and then some.
2: we have millions of job openings. We will have no shortage of work available
3: work from home is here.  No getting that cat back into the bag. The smart employer recognizes the benefits. Less drama.  No more HR lawsuits over a grabbed ass at the office. Higher productivity. The ability to use actual data to determine if an employee is pulling his weight and no longer using an estimated guess.  


The guy is old. He’s still supervising like it’s 1990.  Get new blood in charge or fall behind.

this is a good time to not be middle management white collar manager with no technical skills. in my line of work, these are culled, biz goes to skeleton crews to keep whatever wheels need to be kept running at idle speed. is good to be on the skeleton crew. white collar dude in his 40s, ten plus years out of 'using his hands', managing worker drones, is not where you wanna be.

I know a bunch of places that have lost workers just like that.

One girl volunteered to stay late and help put up the Christmas decorations after they were taken down, and she was handing boxes up the ladder to the attic and the guy on top of the ladder dropped a box on her head. No fault of hers. Tested at the clinic. Fired. For weed. Fucking stupid.

She had another job instantly and they were out a good employee that everyone loved who would have stayed there for years. Her best friend quit with her. So two gone.

It's almost like you should stop drug testing people for stupid fucking reasons. Or something.

Today's Military age Males and Females won't be able to comprehend not being able to bring social drama into the workplace for $4.25hr.