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Posted: 2/14/2017 2:03:02 AM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Did you see the cross section drawing that was posted about 20 times? What you see is all there is. The sill for the water to land on is even with the bottom of the weir. No construction company on the planet would've gone beyond the drawings. Ever. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 2:04:33 AM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Which type would granite be? |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 2:05:43 AM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
In other news: https://youtu.be/fJpl1hm1-qg the gravel pit I work at is switching over to riprap to help with this dam break. In UTAH!!!! Oh yea, take a guess at what the people ordering that riprap have in store. It isn't 'everything works out fine' |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 2:06:01 AM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Sent $50. Not much but it will buy some water and food. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
north valley community foundation Nvcf I know board members, the money is being distributed straight to the local points of need. I'd prefer to not handle peoples funds. Elks lodge has a bar! $200.00 I said I would and I'm glad I did, I really feel for those paying with others mistakes or maybe I should say stupidity. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 2:06:35 AM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Having read this tome of despair, I come to the conclusion that there is a goodly share of Arf'ers that wear tin foil hats. Also lacking in common sense, reading skills and comprehension. Carry on. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 2:08:33 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryNope. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 2:08:55 AM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Granite is... different. It isn't a volcanic rock at all. It never flowed out of a volcano and solidified. Granite is formed deep under the continent and solidified there under immense pressure. it gets to the surface by tectonic forces forcing it upwards till it breaks the surface and forms mountains like the Rockies. Would Sierra Nevada foothills count? I used to live in the area and there is granite everyfuckingwhere. Would it make a solid bedrock? Is it likely to imitate one while actually being a bunch of separate pieces with huge cracks in between? |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 2:10:28 AM EDT
[#8]
Quoted:
north valley community foundation Nvcf I know board members, the money is being distributed straight to the local points of need. I'd prefer to not handle peoples funds. Elks lodge has a bar! Direct link for donations: http://nvcf.org/fund/oroville-evacuation-fund/ |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 2:12:49 AM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
You think it's because there's more precise measurement capability of the AF now then in the '60s? On one of the sensor pages there was a capacity calculated and capacity satellite. I have no idea what that means though. Not so much that, as that was the amount of water/force they designed everything around. Adding 10% could be better measuring, or it could be them running it a bit higher than design, who knows at this point. We'll find out when it airs on "Engineering Disasters" when they restart the show in a decade. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 2:14:42 AM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Not a geologist, but I have been a rockhound for years. First, bedrock is just relatively stable deep rock. You can have bedrock that's sort of fucky like we're seeing here. But I wouldn't consider it what the engineers probably had in mind when they drew the weir as being set into place on it. Looking at the photos, I see stones that look like granite and stones that are darker like basalt. Both basalt and granite will decompose through weather to yield fractured rock and a various powdered derivatives of the oxidized and hydrolyzed rock that can range to white to yellowish to sort of orange color. Basalt more readily decomposes than granite through such weathering. Good pick of that here (this is NOT from Oroville... juts just a great example of how the upper layers of basaltic rock erodes, weathers, and decomposes): http://crcleme.org.au/Educ/rgg/4-mt_oberon/basalt_profile.jpg Its obviously not all basalt and granite. There's a light colored relatively unified intrusion visible in one of the gashes... looks too milky colored to me to be quartzite or even a lite granite. I have no idea what that is. Here's a page I found: https://watershed.ucdavis.edu/shed/lund/dams/Oroville/Misc.%20Oroville/Oroville.htm It says: I find that bit about "blanketed by metamorphic rocks" to be slightly alarming that are mostly flay lying. I wonder if that holds true for the area where the esw is located. I wonder if they set the concrete structures as far down on relatively intact stone as they could find, or if they set it on the blanket of metamorphic rocks. Whatever the case, the stone is extremely fractured, it is decomposing at the joints, it washed away at an alarming right in the places we have seen in the photos. It would be great if a geologist could get on site and examine the rocks and give us more than speculation based on eyeballing things, but that's all weve got at the moment. Another Balsalt outcrop 
Ed |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 2:14:59 AM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Aren't they suppose to build it on bedrock. Not 20ft of fill on top of bedrock. http://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/15446/VSbRy2d-146312.JPG Ed The emergency spillway can be designed to take damage and fail as long as it's failure does not increase loss during a flood as compared to the dam not being there at all.. It's supposed to pass a probable maximum flood (biblical), assuming the dam is high hazard. I doubt the inflow it has been seeing is anywhere near a PMF event so the emergency spillway should not even be in play and any failure is operator and Maintenance error . My guess is the low level intake is inadequate for flood control so they have to rely on the service spillway which only allows the reservoir to drain to a certain elevation and that's it, but the level should be adequate to provide enough flood storage without using the emergency spillway. I'm guessing someone let the reservoir level get too high. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 2:19:43 AM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I have not been paying much attention to this but is this the spillway at the parking area? An Ogee crest is supposed to promote a hydraulic jump at the bottom by using a stilling basin at the bottom that provides a tailwater. There is supposed to be a pool of water at the bottom. The pictures I saw shows the bottom ogee spillway ending on a sloped grade such that no tailwater would develop and no hydraulic jump would occur. Even if a short jump does occur, the steep grades on the downslope side of the spillway negate any dissipation of energy because the flows would just erode downstream of the spillway and headcut back to the spillway. In short, the ogee crest spillway is worthless if there are steep slopes downstream of it. The Ogee crest is designed to provide a smooth laminar flow (like a B24 or P51 wing) so as not to introduce cavitation to the adjacent area. Cavitation would also dig a huge hole right next to the weir. Cavitation is what ruined the main spillway also from what I read. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 2:21:26 AM EDT
[#13]
Oroville Evacuation Fund
http://nvcf.org/fund/oroville-evacuation-fund/ [email protected] (530) 891-1150 240 Main Street, Suite 260 Chico, CA 95928 M-Th | 9 AM - 4 PM Fri | 9 AM - 12 PM NBC KCRA Ch.3 Website: http://www.kcra.com/nowcast FaceBook: https://www.facebook.com/KCRA3 Twitter: https://twitter.com/kcranews YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/kcratv Media Player: https://content.uplynk.com/channel/829a8c85f9e840c6bed963856c231428.m3u8 ABC KRCR Ch.7 Website: http://www.krcrtv.com/ LiveStream: https://livestream.com/KRCR/events/3724366 FaceBook: https://www.facebook.com/KRCR7/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/krcr7?lang=en CBS Sacramento Ch.13 Website: http://sacramento.cbslocal.com/show/live-video/ FaceBook: https://www.facebook.com/cbssacramento Twitter: https://twitter.com/cbssacramento?lang=en YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/cbssacramento Media Player: http://play-prod1.live.anvato.net/server/play/cbslocal-kovrx-dfp/master.m3u8 FOX KTXL Ch.40 Website: http://fox40.com/ LiveStream: https://livestream.com/KTXL/live FaceBook: https://www.facebook.com/fox40 Twitter: https://twitter.com/fox40?lang=en Media Player: https://dai.google.com/linear/hls/event/DbrOivejTLmmcfcDWFbTHA/variant/cc66bae58548746f217767465846591a/stream/95b94368-4123-4200-ac54-281f2e11ed35:CBF/bandwidth/694272.m3u8 Lake Oroville Live Cam http://www.parks.ca.gov/?page_id=29411 Butte County Sheriff, Cal Fire, Chico and Paradise Police/Fire Scanner Website: http://www.broadcastify.com/listen/feed/1929/web Media Player: http://relay.broadcastify.com/400803170.mp3 California Department of Water Resources Website: http://www.water.ca.gov/ FaceBook: https://www.facebook.com/pages/California-Department-of-Water-Resources/95205192448 Twitter: https://twitter.com/ca_dwr?lang=en Periscope: https://www.periscope.tv/CA_DWR YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/calwater |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 2:23:04 AM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The emergency spillway can be designed to take damage and fail as long as it's failure does not increase loss during a flood as compared to the dam not being there at all.. It's supposed to pass a probable maximum flood (biblical), assuming the dam is high hazard. I doubt the inflow it has been seeing is anywhere near a PMF event so the emergency spillway should not even be in play and any failure is operator and Maintenance error . My guess is the low level intake is inadequate for flood control so they have to rely on the service spillway which only allows the reservoir to drain to a certain elevation and that's it, but the level should be adequate to provide enough flood storage without using the emergency spillway. I'm guessing someone let the reservoir level get too high. Reading up on some prior earthen dam failures, that was the contributing factor in them (not saying this dam is going to fail). Also from looking at previous records, it seems that yes they have held on to too much water this year in spite of the heavy rains and large snow depths. Ed |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 2:24:33 AM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Would Sierra Nevada foothills count? I used to live in the area and there is granite everyfuckingwhere. Would it make a solid bedrock? Is it likely to imitate one while actually being a bunch of separate pieces with huge cracks in between? Adding that this is just what I remember from geology class in my high school... which was many years ago... so I'm no expert. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 2:29:18 AM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Ok, it finally occurred to me to attempt to look at historical data instead of hysterical... Looking at the electronic records is enlightening. Going back to the earliest online data (around 1986), it shows there have been only 4 instances where the peak inflow has been above 100k cfs. I understand that this can change, but based on past info, I would be comfortable right now knowing that only one time has it ever flowed so much that the current partially disabled spillway was unable to keep up with the inflow. Click here to view all online inflow data charted I swear this last storm was 200+ inflow. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 2:31:05 AM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Some great photos of the dam construction. http://www.nbclosangeles.com/multimedia/Oroville-Dam-Flooding-History-California-Water-Reservoir-Photos-413590093.html http://media.nbclosangeles.com/images/987*604/VA_1663-1_Oroville_04_29_1963.jpg Contractors use a high pressure water hose to clean the core block area at the Oroville damsite, which was required before the 231,000 cubic yards of concrete could be poured to form the core block. Photo taken April 29, 1963. If that's the shit they poured the emergency spillway weir over then they may be properly fucked. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 2:34:10 AM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Notice how historical peak capacity is around 1 June. That confirms what one or more others have mentioned about the rainy season and snow melt. This has the potential to be a serious situation for about four more months. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Notice how historical peak capacity is around 1 June. That confirms what one or more others have mentioned about the rainy season and snow melt. This has the potential to be a serious situation for about four more months. If the e-spill had held safely they could have shut off the main spillway and attempted something to shore it up and prevent uphill erosion. They also could have worked on removing the debris preventing them from running the hydro outlet as the e-spill empties out much further down the canal. That's what they talked about doing in one of the early press conferences. They are probably shoring up the e-spill as much as they can because there's a distinct possibility they may not be able to keep up with inflows in the coming weeks/months using the main spillway and water is going over that thing again and they want it to hold as long as possible. Just my wild ass guess. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 2:36:35 AM EDT
[#19]
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Posted: 2/14/2017 2:38:52 AM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Just about completely wrong if I understand the design correctly. The Ogee crest is designed to provide a smooth laminar flow (like a B24 or P51 wing) so as not to introduce cavitation to the adjacent area. Cavitation would also dig a huge hole right next to the weir. Cavitation is what ruined the main spillway also from what I read. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
I have not been paying much attention to this but is this the spillway at the parking area? An Ogee crest is supposed to promote a hydraulic jump at the bottom by using a stilling basin at the bottom that provides a tailwater. There is supposed to be a pool of water at the bottom. The pictures I saw shows the bottom ogee spillway ending on a sloped grade such that no tailwater would develop and no hydraulic jump would occur. Even if a short jump does occur, the steep grades on the downslope side of the spillway negate any dissipation of energy because the flows would just erode downstream of the spillway and headcut back to the spillway. In short, the ogee crest spillway is worthless if there are steep slopes downstream of it. The Ogee crest is designed to provide a smooth laminar flow (like a B24 or P51 wing) so as not to introduce cavitation to the adjacent area. Cavitation would also dig a huge hole right next to the weir. Cavitation is what ruined the main spillway also from what I read. We were discussing the failure at the bottom of the spillway which was caused by not having a stilling basin at the bottom and the steep slopes. The cross section is not even a real ogee spillway because it does not have the reverse curve on the bottom that promotes the jump. That section needs a stilling basin. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 2:39:08 AM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
It's my belief that's why they wanted to test the emergency spillway to see if it's viable. There's record snow levels in the Sierra's and last week's storm wasn't even that bad. The worst is coming. If the e-spill had held safely they could have shut off the main spillway and attempted something to shore it up and prevent uphill erosion. They also could have worked on removing the debris preventing them from running the hydro outlet as the e-spill empties out much further down the canal. That's what they talked about doing in one of the early press conferences. They are probably shoring up the e-spill as much as they can because there's a distinct possibility they may not be able to keep up with inflows in the coming weeks/months using the main spillway and water is going over that thing again and they want it to hold as long as possible. Just my wild ass guess. That reads like Chernobyl. "We're gonna turn off all our safety features to test them one by one. Oh shit the last one failed" |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 2:41:35 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I was thinking that parking lot should have been sandbagged off. They could levee that parking lot off in a day or less. If they did, the e-spill weir would be 900 feet instead if 1700 feet long. Better to spread the water out and slow the flow. 
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Posted: 2/14/2017 2:42:52 AM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
It's my belief that's why they wanted to test the emergency spillway to see if it's viable. That was my thought all along when they let the water raise up to it. Test it at ~1' of water and see what happens with the thought that they could stop it if it started looking bad. I just don't think they realized just how fast things would erode. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 2:44:08 AM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The emergency spillway can be designed to take damage and fail as long as it's failure does not increase loss during a flood as compared to the dam not being there at all.. It's supposed to pass a probable maximum flood (biblical), assuming the dam is high hazard. I doubt the inflow it has been seeing is anywhere near a PMF event so the emergency spillway should not even be in play and any failure is operator and Maintenance error . My guess is the low level intake is inadequate for flood control so they have to rely on the service spillway which only allows the reservoir to drain to a certain elevation and that's it, but the level should be adequate to provide enough flood storage without using the emergency spillway. I'm guessing someone let the reservoir level get too high. I think someone mentioned this dam was not supposed to use the regular spillway, much less the e-spill, at design operating level but that CWR had increased the dam operating level in response to requests by users to increase water storage for use in dry years. Running high level and damaging both main and emergency spillways has certainly compromised the flood control role of this dam and threatens to cause a disastrous flood. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 2:44:20 AM EDT
[#25]
We're probably clear of any more drama until Thursday...
They'll have until Wednesday to shore things up and drain the lake as much as possible... then the rain starts... My guess is Thursday is when water levels rise back to near present numbers... And Friday is when things start getting tense again. But that's just my feeling from watching this thread from the beginning and absorbing bits of info here and there. I hope my prediction is wrong. night all. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 2:45:49 AM EDT
[#26]
till trying to understand this rock-type debate. Forgive me if it's settled.
Is this the good stuff or the bad stuff? ETA: picfail  Attached File |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 2:47:57 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
We're probably clear of any more drama until Thursday... They'll have until Wednesday to shore things up and drain the lake as much as possible... then the rain starts... My guess is Thursday is when water levels rise back to near present numbers... And Friday is when things start getting tense again. But that's just my feeling from watching this thread from the beginning and absorbing bits of info here and there. I hope my prediction is wrong. night all. Thinking optimistically, they were able to concrete those rocks in place very quickly during the last day of preparations and it held up surprisingly good. Hopefully they can install a bunch more rip rap in the next few days with good results. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 2:49:47 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I swear this last storm was 200+ inflow. I stand corrected. Apparently what I w=thought was inflow was something else, not sure what though. Here is inflow for the last 2 years: 2 years of inflow It's not as rosy a picture 
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Posted: 2/14/2017 2:50:32 AM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
But Granite is a very strong rock... It doesn't look anything like what's in the Oroville dam pictures. The large boulder near the base of the spillway, the one beneath the spillway that was exposed by hydraulic erosion, is granite. El Capitan and Half Dome in Yosemite Valley, really the entire Sierra Nevada, is granite. Yosemite Valley was scoured out of the granite by the rivers flowing through it. The eroded soils were deposited down-stream to create the San Joaquin Valley. What we are seeing near Oroville is that same process on a smaller scale but at high speed. It is caused by humans not nature. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 2:54:32 AM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
till trying to understand this rock-type debate. Forgive me if it's settled. Is this the good stuff or the bad stuff? ETA: picfail https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/131153/whichrock-146428.JPG Still working through it. 
Basalt was mentioned! I got hooked on rock climbing at the basalt columns in downtown Eugene, OR.  Attached File |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 3:06:34 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Reading up on some prior earthen dam failures, that was the contributing factor in them (not saying this dam is going to fail). Also from looking at previous records, it seems that yes they have held on to too much water this year in spite of the heavy rains and large snow depths. Ed Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
The emergency spillway can be designed to take damage and fail as long as it's failure does not increase loss during a flood as compared to the dam not being there at all.. It's supposed to pass a probable maximum flood (biblical), assuming the dam is high hazard. I doubt the inflow it has been seeing is anywhere near a PMF event so the emergency spillway should not even be in play and any failure is operator and Maintenance error . My guess is the low level intake is inadequate for flood control so they have to rely on the service spillway which only allows the reservoir to drain to a certain elevation and that's it, but the level should be adequate to provide enough flood storage without using the emergency spillway. I'm guessing someone let the reservoir level get too high. Reading up on some prior earthen dam failures, that was the contributing factor in them (not saying this dam is going to fail). Also from looking at previous records, it seems that yes they have held on to too much water this year in spite of the heavy rains and large snow depths. Ed You would have to know what the flow through the service spillway is when the reservoir is at the emergency spillway elevation to really understand what fire they were playing with. I doubt the emergency spillway has ever seen flow based on how it is designed and the immenent failure it would see, unless they rebuilt it in the past. Were they operationally supposed to ensure that they had enough storage to handle a certain flood event? Did they know that increasing the service spillway flow was going to cause failure so they restricted it well below what it is designed for and prayed for the best? The other question is can the low level intake provide enough release during the low flow period to close off the service spillway for repair. Or will they have to spend god awful money to armor the emergency spillway in order to fix the service spillway? There are some puckered assholes out there. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 3:14:48 AM EDT
[#32]
You guys talk too much and too quickly for me to keep up with.
I got my geology degree from Chico State, about half an hour from Oroville, and I worked for the USDA Forest Service for a whole three months one summer in the area which is the watershed for Oroville. Most rocks vary wildly in structure and composition, based on parent rock (or magma in the case of igneous rocks), age, time exposed, and structural deformation that's taken place to date. I can give you six samples of basalt that a non-rocklicker would swear were all different types of rock, but they'd all be basalt. None of that means that I have any idea what is going on with the situation. That all said, here's what I recall and have picked up from the maps and photos I'm seeing in passing while trying to get other stuff done: I believe the dam is built on the contact of the granite (yes, the same granite that makes up the the Sierra Nevada mountains) and the metamorphic shell that forms any time you get granite. The metamorphics that I recall in the area are generally from parent rock of sand/silt/mudstone or basalt, depending on the area, and it varies wildly. The sand/silt/mudstone is generally altered into schist and gneiss, the basalt into serpentine and greenstone. Of those, serpentine is the worst to have to deal with from an engineering perspective. If I find some time (unlikely) I'll try to pull up some detail maps for the area. I've got some friends who may still be with DWR that I can check with as well, and maybe see about tracking down an old professor. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 3:19:34 AM EDT
[#33]
In the 30 Hours since they declared emergency and increased flow to 100kcfs
The reservoir level has dropped 9.79 ft (9' 9.5") -- 892.10 ft ? currently 30 hours to go, they should get another 15 feet out before it starts climbing again. So if inflow jumps by 50kcfs on Thursday, it can maintain elevation below the emergency spillway for about a day and a half, putting target next Friday Night / Saturday Morning being very conservative. The paranoid side of me says they have until about noon Friday morning to have the shotcrete cured. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 3:20:26 AM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
You guys talk too much and too quickly for me to keep up with. I got my geology degree from Chico State, about half an hour from Oroville, and I worked for the USDA Forest Service for a whole three months one summer in the area which is the watershed for Oroville. Most rocks vary wildly in structure and composition, based on parent rock (or magma in the case of igneous rocks), age, time exposed, and structural deformation that's taken place to date. I can give you six samples of basalt that a non-rocklicker would swear were all different types of rock, but they'd all be basalt. None of that means that I have any idea what is going on with the situation. That all said, here's what I recall and have picked up from the maps and photos I'm seeing in passing while trying to get other stuff done: I believe the dam is built on the contact of the granite (yes, the same granite that makes up the the Sierra Nevada mountains) and the metamorphic shell that forms any time you get granite. The metamorphics that I recall in the area are generally from parent rock of sand/silt/mudstone or basalt, depending on the area, and it varies wildly. The sand/silt/mudstone is generally altered into schist and gneiss, the basalt into serpentine and greenstone. Of those, serpentine is the worst to have to deal with from an engineering perspective. If I find some time (unlikely) I'll try to pull up some detail maps for the area. I've got some friends who may still be with DWR that I can check with as well, and maybe see about tracking down an old professor. Thanks! Please do! |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 3:27:04 AM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I stand corrected. Apparently what I w=thought was inflow was something else, not sure what though. Here is inflow for the last 2 years: 2 years of inflow It's not as rosy a picture 2015 was extremely dry. :-( it's not looking good. I predict we will see what 200+ looks like, soon. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 3:27:53 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
You guys talk too much and too quickly for me to keep up with. I got my geology degree from Chico State, about half an hour from Oroville, and I worked for the USDA Forest Service for a whole three months one summer in the area which is the watershed for Oroville. Most rocks vary wildly in structure and composition, based on parent rock (or magma in the case of igneous rocks), age, time exposed, and structural deformation that's taken place to date. I can give you six samples of basalt that a non-rocklicker would swear were all different types of rock, but they'd all be basalt. None of that means that I have any idea what is going on with the situation. That all said, here's what I recall and have picked up from the maps and photos I'm seeing in passing while trying to get other stuff done: I believe the dam is built on the contact of the granite (yes, the same granite that makes up the the Sierra Nevada mountains) and the metamorphic shell that forms any time you get granite. The metamorphics that I recall in the area are generally from parent rock of sand/silt/mudstone or basalt, depending on the area, and it varies wildly. The sand/silt/mudstone is generally altered into schist and gneiss, the basalt into serpentine and greenstone. Of those, serpentine is the worst to have to deal with from an engineering perspective. If I find some time (unlikely) I'll try to pull up some detail maps for the area. I've got some friends who may still be with DWR that I can check with as well, and maybe see about tracking down an old professor. Thanks. Because I'm going blind looking at those rocks 
Ed |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 3:30:48 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
You guys talk too much and too quickly for me to keep up with. I got my geology degree from Chico State, about half an hour from Oroville, and I worked for the USDA Forest Service for a whole three months one summer in the area which is the watershed for Oroville. Most rocks vary wildly in structure and composition, based on parent rock (or magma in the case of igneous rocks), age, time exposed, and structural deformation that's taken place to date. I can give you six samples of basalt that a non-rocklicker would swear were all different types of rock, but they'd all be basalt. None of that means that I have any idea what is going on with the situation. That all said, here's what I recall and have picked up from the maps and photos I'm seeing in passing while trying to get other stuff done: I believe the dam is built on the contact of the granite (yes, the same granite that makes up the the Sierra Nevada mountains) and the metamorphic shell that forms any time you get granite. The metamorphics that I recall in the area are generally from parent rock of sand/silt/mudstone or basalt, depending on the area, and it varies wildly. The sand/silt/mudstone is generally altered into schist and gneiss, the basalt into serpentine and greenstone. Of those, serpentine is the worst to have to deal with from an engineering perspective. If I find some time (unlikely) I'll try to pull up some detail maps for the area. I've got some friends who may still be with DWR that I can check with as well, and maybe see about tracking down an old professor. Our very own geologist! |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 3:32:24 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
You guys talk too much and too quickly for me to keep up with. I got my geology degree from Chico State, about half an hour from Oroville, and I worked for the USDA Forest Service for a whole three months one summer in the area which is the watershed for Oroville. Most rocks vary wildly in structure and composition, based on parent rock (or magma in the case of igneous rocks), age, time exposed, and structural deformation that's taken place to date. I can give you six samples of basalt that a non-rocklicker would swear were all different types of rock, but they'd all be basalt. None of that means that I have any idea what is going on with the situation. That all said, here's what I recall and have picked up from the maps and photos I'm seeing in passing while trying to get other stuff done: I believe the dam is built on the contact of the granite (yes, the same granite that makes up the the Sierra Nevada mountains) and the metamorphic shell that forms any time you get granite. The metamorphics that I recall in the area are generally from parent rock of sand/silt/mudstone or basalt, depending on the area, and it varies wildly. The sand/silt/mudstone is generally altered into schist and gneiss, the basalt into serpentine and greenstone. Of those, serpentine is the worst to have to deal with from an engineering perspective. If I find some time (unlikely) I'll try to pull up some detail maps for the area. I've got some friends who may still be with DWR that I can check with as well, and maybe see about tracking down an old professor. P.S. That TIE fighter is amazing. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 3:32:52 AM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Our very own geologist! Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
You guys talk too much and too quickly for me to keep up with. I got my geology degree from Chico State, about half an hour from Oroville, and I worked for the USDA Forest Service for a whole three months one summer in the area which is the watershed for Oroville. Most rocks vary wildly in structure and composition, based on parent rock (or magma in the case of igneous rocks), age, time exposed, and structural deformation that's taken place to date. I can give you six samples of basalt that a non-rocklicker would swear were all different types of rock, but they'd all be basalt. None of that means that I have any idea what is going on with the situation. That all said, here's what I recall and have picked up from the maps and photos I'm seeing in passing while trying to get other stuff done: I believe the dam is built on the contact of the granite (yes, the same granite that makes up the the Sierra Nevada mountains) and the metamorphic shell that forms any time you get granite. The metamorphics that I recall in the area are generally from parent rock of sand/silt/mudstone or basalt, depending on the area, and it varies wildly. The sand/silt/mudstone is generally altered into schist and gneiss, the basalt into serpentine and greenstone. Of those, serpentine is the worst to have to deal with from an engineering perspective. If I find some time (unlikely) I'll try to pull up some detail maps for the area. I've got some friends who may still be with DWR that I can check with as well, and maybe see about tracking down an old professor. Our very own geologist! Back off! I claimed him first 
Ed |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 3:33:33 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
In the 26 hours since the OMG RUN Order, they've managed to lower the reservoir by an astounding 8.5 feet. I don't see that matching the "Down 50 feet" by Thursday they gave at one of the Baghdad Bob Conferences. At this rate of around 2.88 inches of drop per hour they will only drop the level by around 17ft in the next 3 or so days. This is rounding up a few hours and the 8.5ft to 9ft. So no they are not getting near the 50ft mark, and this is assuming they amount of water coming in doesn't change, which we all know it will with the projected rains. The best they can do is pray that everything holds together. I would keep the people out of that valley as long as possible, but the problem is we are just getting into the season of normal rise in the dam. So how long can they keep people out of their houses and businesses? Even if nothing changes this is a huge cluster. Praying for all involved that no loss of life will happen. The cost to taxpayers will be huge no matter what, and we can thank the Governor of California past and present for that, had they just maintained the dam we wouldn't even be talking about this. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 3:43:08 AM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
At this rate of around 2.88 inches of drop per hour they will only drop the level by around 17ft in the next 3 or so days. This is rounding up a few hours and the 8.5ft to 9ft. So no they are not getting near the 50ft mark, and this is assuming they amount of water coming in doesn't change, which we all know it will with the projected rains. The best they can do is pray that everything holds together. I would keep the people out of that valley as long as possible, but the problem is we are just getting into the season of normal rise in the dam. So how long can they keep people out of their houses and businesses? Even if nothing changes this is a huge cluster. Praying for all involved that no loss of life will happen. The cost to taxpayers will be huge no matter what, and we can thank the Governor of California past and present for that, had they just maintained the dam we wouldn't even be talking about this. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
In the 26 hours since the OMG RUN Order, they've managed to lower the reservoir by an astounding 8.5 feet. I don't see that matching the "Down 50 feet" by Thursday they gave at one of the Baghdad Bob Conferences. At this rate of around 2.88 inches of drop per hour they will only drop the level by around 17ft in the next 3 or so days. This is rounding up a few hours and the 8.5ft to 9ft. So no they are not getting near the 50ft mark, and this is assuming they amount of water coming in doesn't change, which we all know it will with the projected rains. The best they can do is pray that everything holds together. I would keep the people out of that valley as long as possible, but the problem is we are just getting into the season of normal rise in the dam. So how long can they keep people out of their houses and businesses? Even if nothing changes this is a huge cluster. Praying for all involved that no loss of life will happen. The cost to taxpayers will be huge no matter what, and we can thank the Governor of California past and present for that, had they just maintained the dam we wouldn't even be talking about this. Not sure if you know what the service spillway elevation is but once the reservoir is below that level the release will have to come through the low level intake which is likely much less. The rate at which the reservoir drops once it gets below the service spillway will be much less. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 4:03:38 AM EDT
[#42]
Link posted above by arfcommer KA3B
Oh the irony. Who's pushing the button on the detonator in the picture and who's the current 3rd term governor of the great state of California? The shit apple doesn't fall far from the shit tree. Hundreds attended the Oroville damsite groundbreaking ceremony, which included the first blast for the construction of the No. 1 diversion tunnel. California Governor Edmund G. Brown pushed the button on the detonator box to setoff the dynamite explosion. Photo taken October 12, 1961. 
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Posted: 2/14/2017 4:05:45 AM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Our very own geologist! Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
You guys talk too much and too quickly for me to keep up with. I got my geology degree from Chico State, about half an hour from Oroville, and I worked for the USDA Forest Service for a whole three months one summer in the area which is the watershed for Oroville. Most rocks vary wildly in structure and composition, based on parent rock (or magma in the case of igneous rocks), age, time exposed, and structural deformation that's taken place to date. I can give you six samples of basalt that a non-rocklicker would swear were all different types of rock, but they'd all be basalt. None of that means that I have any idea what is going on with the situation. That all said, here's what I recall and have picked up from the maps and photos I'm seeing in passing while trying to get other stuff done: I believe the dam is built on the contact of the granite (yes, the same granite that makes up the the Sierra Nevada mountains) and the metamorphic shell that forms any time you get granite. The metamorphics that I recall in the area are generally from parent rock of sand/silt/mudstone or basalt, depending on the area, and it varies wildly. The sand/silt/mudstone is generally altered into schist and gneiss, the basalt into serpentine and greenstone. Of those, serpentine is the worst to have to deal with from an engineering perspective. If I find some time (unlikely) I'll try to pull up some detail maps for the area. I've got some friends who may still be with DWR that I can check with as well, and maybe see about tracking down an old professor. Our very own geologist! |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 4:06:11 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Link posted above by another arfcommer Oh the irony. Who's pushing the button on the detonator in the picture and who's the current 3rd term governor of the great state of California? http://media.nbclosangeles.com/images/987*686/UK_Oroville_1121-10_29_1961.jpg Today's kids would need a safe space if they saw a real blasting box. 
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Posted: 2/14/2017 4:10:20 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Not sure if you know what the service spillway elevation is but once the reservoir is below that level the release will have to come through the low level intake which is likely much less. The rate at which the reservoir drops once it gets below the service spillway will be much less. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
In the 26 hours since the OMG RUN Order, they've managed to lower the reservoir by an astounding 8.5 feet. I don't see that matching the "Down 50 feet" by Thursday they gave at one of the Baghdad Bob Conferences. At this rate of around 2.88 inches of drop per hour they will only drop the level by around 17ft in the next 3 or so days. This is rounding up a few hours and the 8.5ft to 9ft. So no they are not getting near the 50ft mark, and this is assuming they amount of water coming in doesn't change, which we all know it will with the projected rains. The best they can do is pray that everything holds together. I would keep the people out of that valley as long as possible, but the problem is we are just getting into the season of normal rise in the dam. So how long can they keep people out of their houses and businesses? Even if nothing changes this is a huge cluster. Praying for all involved that no loss of life will happen. The cost to taxpayers will be huge no matter what, and we can thank the Governor of California past and present for that, had they just maintained the dam we wouldn't even be talking about this. Not sure if you know what the service spillway elevation is but once the reservoir is below that level the release will have to come through the low level intake which is likely much less. The rate at which the reservoir drops once it gets below the service spillway will be much less. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 4:12:43 AM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
At this rate of around 2.88 inches of drop per hour they will only drop the level by around 17ft in the next 3 or so days. This is rounding up a few hours and the 8.5ft to 9ft. So no they are not getting near the 50ft mark, and this is assuming they amount of water coming in doesn't change, which we all know it will with the projected rains. The best they can do is pray that everything holds together. I would keep the people out of that valley as long as possible, but the problem is we are just getting into the season of normal rise in the dam. So how long can they keep people out of their houses and businesses? Even if nothing changes this is a huge cluster. Praying for all involved that no loss of life will happen. The cost to taxpayers will be huge no matter what, and we can thank the Governor of California past and present for that, had they just maintained the dam we wouldn't even be talking about this. Below is the plot I made of elevation vs volume. Once they hit 888 or so, it'll drop the last 30 feet pretty quick. That top 20 feet is a huge volume of water... 
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Posted: 2/14/2017 4:35:32 AM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
You guys talk too much and too quickly for me to keep up with. I got my geology degree from Chico State, about half an hour from Oroville, and I worked for the USDA Forest Service for a whole three months one summer in the area which is the watershed for Oroville. Most rocks vary wildly in structure and composition, based on parent rock (or magma in the case of igneous rocks), age, time exposed, and structural deformation that's taken place to date. I can give you six samples of basalt that a non-rocklicker would swear were all different types of rock, but they'd all be basalt. None of that means that I have any idea what is going on with the situation. That all said, here's what I recall and have picked up from the maps and photos I'm seeing in passing while trying to get other stuff done: I believe the dam is built on the contact of the granite (yes, the same granite that makes up the the Sierra Nevada mountains) and the metamorphic shell that forms any time you get granite. The metamorphics that I recall in the area are generally from parent rock of sand/silt/mudstone or basalt, depending on the area, and it varies wildly. The sand/silt/mudstone is generally altered into schist and gneiss, the basalt into serpentine and greenstone. Of those, serpentine is the worst to have to deal with from an engineering perspective. If I find some time (unlikely) I'll try to pull up some detail maps for the area. I've got some friends who may still be with DWR that I can check with as well, and maybe see about tracking down an old professor. Thanks for the input. If the base of that weir is on granite, or something similarly igneous and tough, they're probably OK. If it's some random weathered metamorphic rock, I'm much less optimistic. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 4:35:40 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
And badass target maker (MOATargets), Cola Warrior West (Reno) host, and all around swell guy. https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Chico%20State "A university in Chico, CA once named the number 1 party school in the nation by playboy magazine. Kegs of beer can be found on the lawn of every house, there are parties every night, and the students still find time to study" |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 4:52:24 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Not sure if you know what the service spillway elevation is but once the reservoir is below that level the release will have to come through the low level intake which is likely much less. The rate at which the reservoir drops once it gets below the service spillway will be much less. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
In the 26 hours since the OMG RUN Order, they've managed to lower the reservoir by an astounding 8.5 feet. I don't see that matching the "Down 50 feet" by Thursday they gave at one of the Baghdad Bob Conferences. At this rate of around 2.88 inches of drop per hour they will only drop the level by around 17ft in the next 3 or so days. This is rounding up a few hours and the 8.5ft to 9ft. So no they are not getting near the 50ft mark, and this is assuming they amount of water coming in doesn't change, which we all know it will with the projected rains. The best they can do is pray that everything holds together. I would keep the people out of that valley as long as possible, but the problem is we are just getting into the season of normal rise in the dam. So how long can they keep people out of their houses and businesses? Even if nothing changes this is a huge cluster. Praying for all involved that no loss of life will happen. The cost to taxpayers will be huge no matter what, and we can thank the Governor of California past and present for that, had they just maintained the dam we wouldn't even be talking about this. Not sure if you know what the service spillway elevation is but once the reservoir is below that level the release will have to come through the low level intake which is likely much less. The rate at which the reservoir drops once it gets below the service spillway will be much less. No I don't know what that level is, I was simply going off of the current drop levels. I am sure that you are 100% correct in saying that the amount of water may not continue to flow out at the current rate. Someone with much more knowledge of the dam would have to run those numbers. Anyway we look at this things will get a lot more interesting come Friday. I really feel for everyone that could lose everything they have worked for because of a bunch of tree hugging retards that care more about an owl than an actual person. I will never be able to understand the logic or lack there of when they put the life of anything over a human life, I guess it's a liberal thing and admittedly I don't have an ounce of that in me. |
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Posted: 2/14/2017 5:04:56 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: snip....I really feel for everyone that could lose everything they have worked for because of a bunch of tree hugging retards that care more about an owl than an actual person. I will never be able to understand the logic or lack there of when they put the life of anything over a human life, I guess it's a liberal thing and admittedly I don't have an ounce of that in me.  Attached File |
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