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Posted: 5/2/2024 11:51:07 AM EST
It started when we noticed the service calls for repair were slowing down... we went from being booked out 1-2 weeks to a few days and now we cannot fill a full day full of service calls. I usually run about 8 calls a day, today I only have 4.
The calls for "my icemaker isn't working", "I need general maintenance", "my refrigerator is making a weird noise" are not existent. We are only getting the emergency no refrigeration calls. We ALMOST went out of business back then. Not gonna lie... this is scaring the shit out of us. The phones are silent. Talked to my competitors and they too are saying the same thing. Their phones are too quiet. FJB  |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 11:54:58 AM EST
[#1]
A friend of mine who is a commercial electrician who owns his company told me last Fall his business had slowed down dramatically.
Inflation is overcoming incomes. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 11:55:35 AM EST
[#2]
Dems have no business experience at least at the under 500 people range. Complete idiots they are.
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Posted: 5/2/2024 11:56:54 AM EST
[#3]
But the weird thing is that self employed people don't seem to care. I had a handyman doing a couple of tasks for me that I didn't feel like doing with more on the way. I completely let him do things as he wanted at his pace since he quoted by the job. But he just ghosted me part way through a job.
The economy is broken. Somehow companies can't find workers and workers can't find jobs. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 11:57:07 AM EST
[#4]
Well - my building plans should get stamped next week and I'm in cash right now.
I don't want a crash, but there may be a silver lining for me. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 11:58:46 AM EST
[#5]
maybe they are buying new stuff and not repairing old
 I just hope that people will continue to buy shit boxes. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 11:58:53 AM EST
[#6]
Energy prices MUST drop dramatically for us to have a chance to correct the ships course. Government money printers go brrrrrrrr though to stimulate the economy - which causes more inflation which means more brrrrrrrrr.
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Posted: 5/2/2024 11:59:00 AM EST
[#7]
I bought a maytag so the repairman can just gloat about yesteryear.
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Posted: 5/2/2024 11:59:18 AM EST
[#8]
Under democratic leadership we lose everything.
Plenty of people who bought new houses and cars in 2020 won't be keeping them. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 11:59:55 AM EST
[#9]
Industrial/durable goods is cooling off but compared to the absolute shitstorm of 2021-23 it's cooled to what we'd have considered normal demand pre-covid. The various industries aren't rising and falling in sync like they have in previous recessions, which is odd.
Generally we're ~6 months behind consumer spending dips given contract terms etc. If consumer spending is tightening now, and continues to dip to recessionary levels, I'd say for us 2024 will be fine but 2025 could be a mess. But I don't know. 2008 never effected us to the extent of others given the amount of work we were doing related to Afghanistan. But the 2016 and 2020 election years were both weird when it comes to forecasted demand. And while Trump's term was good for the market and economy overall, most of it were some of our absolute worst years ever - not even counting 2020 and Covid. Obviously they caused significant uncertainty in our markets. Haven't seen the same uncertainty yet in 2024 but it's tickling the edges of the data available to us. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:00:15 PM EST
[#10]
Been trying to get someone to come out and give me a quote on replacing our pool equipment. Can't get a call back and when I do they either ghost me and don't come by or one company wanted $175 to just come out and look at it.
Same time I called a garage door company this morning to come replace a spring on one of our doors and he's almost done. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:01:30 PM EST
[#11]
I wonder what, if any, impact the aging out of old appliances has.
I’m sure tv repairmen in the 90’s figured they’d never run out of business. Fast forward to today and not one of those stereo repair/ tv repair shops I remember as a kid is still around. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:01:38 PM EST
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted: maybe they are buying new stuff and not repairing old I just hope that people will continue to buy shit boxes. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:02:25 PM EST
[#13]
Someone smart sunk a whole shipboard of Samsung fridges in the Pacific????
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:03:40 PM EST
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Under democratic leadership we lose everything. Plenty of people who bought new houses and cars in 2020 won't be keeping them. Government doesn’t prevent people from over-leveraging themselves. That’s not the fault of democrats or republicans. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:04:14 PM EST
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: maybe they are buying new stuff and not repairing old I just hope that people will continue to buy shit boxes. Bingo, service repair is pricing itself out of the market. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:04:26 PM EST
[#16]
The fed chairman wants to see about 6% unemployment in hopes that it will stop the inflation.
It won't. This is still the beginning. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:04:33 PM EST
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Under democratic leadership we lose everything. Plenty of people who bought new houses and cars in 2020 won't be keeping them. So George W Bush wasn't president before and during the Financial Crisis? |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:06:01 PM EST
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Bingo, service repair is pricing itself out of the market. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: maybe they are buying new stuff and not repairing old I just hope that people will continue to buy shit boxes. Bingo, service repair is pricing itself out of the market. That's actually a thing too. Repair people have gotten to used to charging what ever they felt like that now that everone is broke dick they can't pay the high prices, so they can run to COnn's and get a new under the counter microwave for $10 a month |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:06:24 PM EST
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I wonder what, if any, impact the aging out of old appliances has. I'm sure tv repairmen in the 90's figured they'd never run out of business. Fast forward to today and not one of those stereo repair/ tv repair shops I remember as a kid is still around. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:06:36 PM EST
[#20]
My HVAC guy is so busy he can't even call me back or return a text.
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:07:08 PM EST
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Energy prices MUST drop dramatically for us to have a chance to correct the ships course. Government money printers go brrrrrrrr though to stimulate the economy - which causes more inflation which means more brrrrrrrrr. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:08:10 PM EST
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Energy prices MUST drop dramatically for us to have a chance to correct the ships course. Government money printers go brrrrrrrr though to stimulate the economy - which causes more inflation which means more brrrrrrrrr. These are the lowest energy prices you will see for the rest of your lifetime. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:08:25 PM EST
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That's actually a thing too. Repair people have gotten to used to charging what ever they felt like that now that everone is broke dick they can't pay the high prices, so they can run to COnn's and get a new under the counter microwave for $10 a month When the service bill is 50% of replacement, it just isn’t worth it. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:08:40 PM EST
[#24]
I'm in high performance electronics. If you don't build F16s or medical imaging equipment you will not set what we make.
My employer has had the opportunity for unpaid days off for months now. Orderes went from "holy shit we need to triple or lead time" to "please take unpaid days because we don't have enough work to keep you busy all day" in a hurry. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:09:03 PM EST
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: These are the lowest energy prices you will see for the rest of your lifetime. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Energy prices MUST drop dramatically for us to have a chance to correct the ships course. Government money printers go brrrrrrrr though to stimulate the economy - which causes more inflation which means more brrrrrrrrr. These are the lowest energy prices you will see for the rest of your lifetime. not entirely correct if using the real price of commodities. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:09:43 PM EST
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: When the service bill is 50% of replacement, it just isn’t worth it. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: That's actually a thing too. Repair people have gotten to used to charging what ever they felt like that now that everone is broke dick they can't pay the high prices, so they can run to COnn's and get a new under the counter microwave for $10 a month When the service bill is 50% of replacement, it just isn’t worth it. Yep....that's how the HVAC companies con people into getting whole new systems down here. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:10:20 PM EST
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm in high performance electronics. If you don't build F16s or medical imaging equipment you will not set what we make. My employer has had the opportunity for unpaid days off for months now. Orderes went from "holy shit we need to triple or lead time" to "please take unpaid days because we don't have enough work to keep you busy all day" in a hurry. So ya'll fixed all the stuff that was broken? Another thing that I find interesting is that it never used to be that businesses were busy every single day I remember back in the day when i was growing up in the boat dealership and working in one, this was prior to Katrina. You got slow during the winter. So while it was slow, you rebuilt engines, lower units, and power heads, you then cleaned and organizes the shop and did repairs to the shop and deferred maintenance. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:11:21 PM EST
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Industrial/durable goods is cooling off but compared to the absolute shitstorm of 2021-23 it's cooled to what we'd have considered normal demand pre-covid. The various industries aren't rising and falling in sync like they have in previous recessions, which is odd. Generally we're ~6 months behind consumer spending dips given contract terms etc. If consumer spending is tightening now, and continues to dip to recessionary levels, I'd say for us 2024 will be fine but 2025 could be a mess. But I don't know. 2008 never effected us to the extent of others given the amount of work we were doing related to Afghanistan. But the 2016 and 2020 election years were both weird when it comes to forecasted demand. And while Trump's term was good for the market and economy overall, most of it were some of our absolute worst years ever - not even counting 2020 and Covid. Obviously they caused significant uncertainty in our markets. Haven't seen the same uncertainty yet in 2024 but it's tickling the edges of the data available to us. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:11:44 PM EST
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Someone smart sunk a whole shipboard of Samsung fridges in the Pacific???? Thank goodness... |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:12:45 PM EST
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Government doesn't prevent people from over-leveraging themselves. That's not the fault of democrats or republicans. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:12:51 PM EST
[#31]
"The economy is strong as hell!" - Joe Biden, sorta (we ALL know that came from the teleprompter)
I'm sure if he repeats that enough, it'll magically happen, right? |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:13:12 PM EST
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The fed chairman wants to see about 6% unemployment in hopes that it will stop the inflation. It won't. This is still the beginning. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:13:51 PM EST
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: When the service bill is 50% of replacement, it just isn't worth it. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: That's actually a thing too. Repair people have gotten to used to charging what ever they felt like that now that everone is broke dick they can't pay the high prices, so they can run to COnn's and get a new under the counter microwave for $10 a month When the service bill is 50% of replacement, it just isn't worth it. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:14:26 PM EST
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: maybe they are buying new stuff and not repairing old I just hope that people will continue to buy shit boxes. Rest easy… there will always be a market for shit boxes. Shopping for one myself right now to keep as a winter, salt absorbing beater. Got anything on the lot that is super duper shitboxy? I got three fiddy burning a hole in my pocket… |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:14:54 PM EST
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Thank goodness... Yup, I stick with simple controls and minimal electronics. My shit breaks a lot less. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:16:25 PM EST
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: These are the lowest energy prices you will see for the rest of your lifetime. At this point I'm pretty well hedged on electrical costs. I generate almost everything I need at home. I should be set for 10 years or so, then replace a few batteries and be good for ten more. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:16:32 PM EST
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: yeah it will. People are fear motivated herd animals. Schwack 6% of them and the herd will shit it pants and stop spending, which will schwack a bunch more. Hard landing here we come. Did I mention FJB? |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:18:15 PM EST
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You are 100%. Its a chain of events. If our income drops, our belts tighten and wont go out as much. That affects other good people. Did I mention FJB? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: yeah it will. People are fear motivated herd animals. Schwack 6% of them and the herd will shit it pants and stop spending, which will schwack a bunch more. Hard landing here we come. Did I mention FJB? Your state's officials have more to do with your terrible economy does. Biden isn't setting your tax rate, CARB rules or fuel tax. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:19:18 PM EST
[#39]
We just bought all new appliances.
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:20:08 PM EST
[#40]
do you only do commercial refrigeration? or do you also have hvac residential new construction, changeouts, service, etc depts?
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:23:15 PM EST
[#41]
Do you know how to do plumbing?
If so you will never have trouble finding work. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:23:38 PM EST
[#42]
It's been crazy over the past few years. Traditionally busy-season times we might be slow for months, and feel likes a recession is creeping in. Then... bam! We're slammed. It's like sporadic slowdowns and then all the missing orders show up at once. It's crazy. We have some diversification across industries too that theoretically shouldn't be in sync, but sometimes they are. It's weird out there, I can't shake the feeling that it's coming, then it feels like it is, then it picks up. My butthole is perpetually puckered.
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:25:32 PM EST
[#43]
you did your job too well and now nobody's shit is breaking lol
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:25:44 PM EST
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Bingo, service repair is pricing itself out of the market. I think your average individual is no longer capable of maintaining, troubleshooting, and fixing things that a monkey could do, so you have service companies making bank on preventative maintenance and piddly stuff like evap motors and controller replacements. Speaking from a business standpoint, when a replacement compressor installed costs 1/2 what a new u/c unit does, if the parts aren't under warranty it makes more sense to replace the damn thing and get 5 years of warranty again. With what hvacr service costs now, it makes more sense to run rtus and refrigeration into the ground, pay out the nose for emergency repair once in a while, and replace units when they get tired rather pay for preventative maintenance. I'm happy to spend a day every quarter doing filters, belts and condensers at my stores to save 12k+ a year. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:26:31 PM EST
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted: maybe they are buying new stuff and not repairing old I just hope that people will continue to buy shit boxes. local buddy let's me buy parts on his account. So far I can rebuild washers and refrigerators. Dishwasher too, but wife wanted a new one. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:26:51 PM EST
[#46]
My washing machine just quit and I actually had the thought that I could make that thing pto driven. I am fed up with shit that is designed to fail with electronics and I even have a degree in the field.
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:27:01 PM EST
[#47]
Depends on what line of work i would expect.
We've got as much work booked for this year already as we did for all of last year. Yes, costs are up but so is what we are charging. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:28:39 PM EST
[#48]
I know it's anecdotal, but based on what I'm seeing at the curb lately, I'd say people are simply opting to replace broken/older stuff and upgrade to something nicer/newer. Lots of appliances, tv, ope, etc... It slowed down over the winter months, but it's back on like donkey Kong the last month or so. I found a $1000+ toro time master mower someone threw out because the belt for the blades jumped time and they were hitting. It took me about 15 minutes to fix it. I'm sure they could have had it repaired for $1-200, but they just replaced it.
I'm getting the same way lately. If I paid $5-1000 for an appliance and got 10-15 years out of it and can replace it for $5-1000 still, I'm going to replace it. If I can fix it pretty easily for $100 and am confident my fix will work, I may choose to fix. Ymmv. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:28:45 PM EST
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: My HVAC guy is so busy he can't even call me back or return a text.  Or have his son as one of your cadets. |
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Posted: 5/2/2024 12:30:01 PM EST
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: But the weird thing is that self employed people don't seem to care. I had a handyman doing a couple of tasks for me that I didn't feel like doing with more on the way. I completely let him do things as he wanted at his pace since he quoted by the job. But he just ghosted me part way through a job. The economy is broken. Somehow companies can't find workers and workers can't find jobs. Nah, some workers just can't afford to work for certain wages. |
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