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Link Posted: 6/27/2019 12:14:07 PM EDT
[#1]
They have a slight chance if they blatantly ignore laws...
Link Posted: 6/27/2019 12:14:09 PM EDT
[#2]
Unless the dims run a total idiot they stand a good chance at winning.  The dims hate Trump are highly motivated to see him gone, accordingly they will turn out in large numbers (living and dead).   Trump has lost supporters.
Link Posted: 6/27/2019 12:18:50 PM EDT
[#3]
I hope not.
Link Posted: 6/27/2019 12:19:57 PM EDT
[#4]
I think Trump will win, but it’s gonna be even harder than last time. Google, YouTube, Reddit, etc are trying to silence conservative voices. If Trump keeps us out of going into another war, and the economy stays strong that should help him.
Link Posted: 6/27/2019 12:25:49 PM EDT
[#5]
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Quoted:
You think there are people who don't know who Trump is?
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Trump won a lot due to social media and alternative media. The left will try to clamp down on that as much as possible, in addition to going all-out on the ballot harvesting. In a fair race there's no way Trump would lose. But in reality he probably needs a huge lead just to break even. So it's not a lock.
You think there are people who don't know who Trump is?
You missed the whole 16 election, I take it.

Almost Every person in this country knew who Trump was then. The "meme war" wasn't about telling people who Trump was, it was about exposing the Dems lies about him and exposing who THEY are.

Every time the dems and media attacked Trump, his supporters online made it known it was all a lie or gross exaggeration, and they were, in fact, the ones guilty of what they were accusing him of.
Link Posted: 6/27/2019 12:27:31 PM EDT
[#6]
Up date the poll with their change of winning with out massive voter fraud
Link Posted: 6/27/2019 12:31:25 PM EDT
[#7]
I think they have a pretty good chance.

I have a feeling voter fraud and cheating will be out of control in 2020.
Link Posted: 6/27/2019 12:36:33 PM EDT
[#8]
The communists have almost universal control (in addition to the DNC and elected democrats) of all forms of media and entertainment, government civil service,  all levels of education, unions, social media, in addition to hundreds of thousands of  fanatics that will protest at a seconds notice. They have conspired together with the main goals of preventing Trump from effectively leading, preventing his reelection, and the secondary goal is to defeat all other republicans. They are banning all forms of non-leftist speech from outright violence on campuses to bans on social media. They are making inroads into the banking industry.

To watch all of this unfold over the past few years and still put on your Pollyanna dress and claim everything will be fine is 100% delusion.
Link Posted: 6/27/2019 12:50:52 PM EDT
[#9]
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Quoted:
If you consider that 270 EC votes are needed it doesn’t look promising.

These are locks for a D vote:
California- 55
New York - 29
New Jersey- 14
Oregon- 7
Washington- 12
Illinois- 20
Mass- 11
Conn- 7
Hawaii- 4
Maine- 4
NH- 4
RI- 4
Delaware- 3
D.C- 3
Vermont- 3

That gives the D candidate 180 EC before the first vote is event counted.

Pick up
Michigan- 16
Ohio- 18
Virginia- 13
Pennslyvania- 20
Florida- 29
Nevada- 6

That’s another 102 for an easy win for campaigning in just six states.
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13 Keys Metric:

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

When 5 or fewer statements are false, the incumbent wins the popular vote according to this metric, even though the popular vote is not a metric in the Constitution and for good reason.

How Trump's 13 Keys metric plays out currently:

1. False - Slightly favors the Dems after 2019
2. True
3. True: Trump
4. True: None so far
5. True/TBD
6. True: Trump
7. True: Trump has made drastic and major policy changes
8. True: There is no sustained social unrest, despite Democrats working hard to agitate the Nation otherwise. Too many people are working.
9. True with false narrative: Presstitutes have been trying to prop up scandal after scandal, with nothing of substance. We'll see more stories claiming the contrary into 2020 of course, but they've spent their ammunition already with the Russian Collusion hoax.
10. True: Trump has been making strides in military campaigns and affairs, with little or no coverage from the press.
12. True: Trump is the most charismatic President we've seen in decades, with more energy than any known President in history.
13. True: None of the challengers are charismatic in comparison to Trump.

Incumbency is a huge factor in reelection and Trump is a far stronger candidate than the last 3 Presidents who got reelected combined.  No President has ever had numbers like this even close to what Trump has with the 13 keys, and he's already 2 years into the prep for 2020 with a massive campaign apparatus designed to beat the odds stacked against normal candidates who have to fight the left media apparatchik.

None of the Democrat candidates have a solid foundation yet with anything even close to the nomination.

On foreign policy, Trump has shown aggressive representation of the US in ways we've never seen in history really, while also being weary of going to war.  Democrats can be shown for wanting war one day, then critiquing Trump the next for showing restraint.

It will be clear to most voters that Trump is a lot more mature and experienced for this job, unlike any of the Democrat candidates, who only have a message of socialism and anti-Trump sentiment, zero substance.

They still haven't tackled the Hillary issue in the open either, while Hillary's minions have been in negotiation (dictation) with several of the Democrat candidate campaigns since at least January 2019.

We know that Biden will not be the nominee.  He was merely biding time while the rest of the hopefuls tried to get traction in their campaigns.

The big elephant in the room nobody in the presstitute establishment is talking about is the Hillary problem.  She has more control over the DNC now than in 2016 since she stacked the Chairman, Vice Chairs, and Finance Chair with her loyalists.

Don't rule out a Hillary/[Insert Gender Identity candidate here] ticket in 2020.  I personally suspect Hillary is looking for another woman candidate to run with in 2020, but her problem is she doesn't get along with people, especially women, who she sees as weak and to be dominated with abusive treatment.  That won't fly well with Warren, Harris, Klobuchar, Gabbard, Gillibrand, or Williamson, although Harris slept her way to position in her career, so Hillary might see her as a useful idiot for her campaign.

Hillary's team is also looking for a black or gay male candidate with Booker and Buttigieg, but again, the personalities clash between these, not that this has stopped the powers that be from pairing up unlikely mates in just about every Presidential election over the last 60 years at least:

* JFK/LBJ was about as polar opposite as you could imagine.  Idealist Northeast Irish Catholic Mob family's son paired with corrupt Texas frontman/puppet for oil and business in the South.

* LBJ had no VP running mate in 1964

* Nixon and Agnew stick out as one of the only friendly/amicable combos in the last 60 years

* Reagan/Bush was a very bad match in 1980, with Bush coining many of the anti-Reagan policy terms that stuck throughout the Reagan years, embrassingly

* Clinton/Gore was another strange match with Gore threatening resignation before the inauguration because of Hillary's people taking over the VP office

* Bush/Cheney was a power play of former insiders matched with Bush 41's son

* Obama/Biden was an odd pair for sure with an openly gaffing racist as Obama's VP, saying they finally have a "clean and articulate African American" to run.

Either way, it won't be until July 2020 when we finally know who the nominee and running mate will be.  Milwaukee is where the 2020 DNC Convention will be.

Trump's campaign rally turnout is unprecedented in Presidential campaign season history from what I can find, already packing 20,000 capacity stadiums.  Even the Hispanic/Latino for Trump rally with Pence yesterday exceeded what we've seen for Biden and most, if not all of the Dems so far.

None of the Dem candidates have anywhere near the level of enthusiasm from voters and the turnout shows.  The search algorithms are doing everything in their power to hide the photos showing rally turnout, but they can only do so much of that.  People are seeing through that and I don't see people willing to camp out in advance for any of the Dems.

Link Posted: 6/27/2019 1:02:39 PM EDT
[#10]
Yellow dog Democrat/rabid totalitarians are everywhere on the left coast.  It is closer than ever by %.
Link Posted: 6/27/2019 4:26:26 PM EDT
[#11]
37% I guess I’ll skim the thread comments
Link Posted: 6/27/2019 6:53:52 PM EDT
[#12]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
They have a slight chance if they blatantly ignore laws...
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Link Posted: 6/27/2019 7:14:14 PM EDT
[#13]
I don't think so,that's why they are going the impeachment route
Link Posted: 6/27/2019 11:21:23 PM EDT
[#14]
You all saw the debates?
Link Posted: 6/27/2019 11:30:29 PM EDT
[#15]
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Quoted:
And Booker too spoke his parts in Spanish with a thick Spanish accent
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Quoted:

Illegal Latino immigrants voting:  why else do you think Beto was trying to speak Spanish at last night's opening demorat debate?

It is called:  "hispandering"
And Booker too spoke his parts in Spanish with a thick Spanish accent
Booker nor Beto spoke a lick of Spanish with any Spanish accent. They sounded like druken American tourists trying to order Taco Bell like the dog commercials from yesteryear.
Link Posted: 6/27/2019 11:53:46 PM EDT
[#16]
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Quoted:
This crop of 25 candidates have a combined IQ of 70 at the most.

They are going to embarrass themselves.
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^^^^^
This!
Link Posted: 7/7/2019 11:03:10 AM EDT
[#17]
this election season is already looking to be a shit show / tard fest. holy fuck.
Link Posted: 7/7/2019 11:07:47 AM EDT
[#18]
Of course the left has a very good chance; this is a country that elected BHO twice, and half of it is feeding itself on taxes.
Link Posted: 7/7/2019 11:12:06 AM EDT
[#19]
Link Posted: 7/7/2019 11:18:17 AM EDT
[#20]
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Quoted:
Through manipulation, yes. They’re too divisive for themselves even.
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Yes
Via fraud
Link Posted: 7/15/2019 3:28:22 PM EDT
[#21]
I mentioned the splintering of the Dem Party.  Well, AOC and SomaliWoman are doing it for us.

A new internal Democrat poll in swing districts released on Sunday showed that socialist Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and Ilhan Omar (D-MN) are extremely unpopular and that they may cost the Democratic Party the presidency and the House in 2020.

"Ocasio-Cortez was recognized by 74% of voters in the poll; 22% had a favorable view," Axios reported. "Rep. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota — another member of The Squad — was recognized by 53% of the voters; 9% (not a typo) had a favorable view."

"Socialism was viewed favorably by 18% of the voters and unfavorably by 69%," Axios added, whereas "capitalism was 56% favorable; 32% unfavorable."
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https://www.dailywire.com/news/49475/not-typo-democrat-poll-shows-what-voters-think-ryan-saavedra
Link Posted: 7/15/2019 3:53:37 PM EDT
[#22]
Only if the cheat,,,, otherwise zero percent chance they win with any of the current challengers.
Link Posted: 7/15/2019 4:06:56 PM EDT
[#23]
I think they have a good chance with a moderate candidate but they seem hell bent on picking the most SJW candidate. They run the risk off alienating the moderates by pandering to heavily to minority groups and radical ideas. Id say this election is the Democrats to lose (just like the last one).
Link Posted: 7/15/2019 4:11:05 PM EDT
[#24]
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Quoted:

Their only hope is voter fraud; massive voter fraud and illegals being allowed to vote are the only tools they have to possibly beat GEOTUS. They can't win any other way.
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Link Posted: 7/15/2019 4:11:12 PM EDT
[#25]
Slight. It's not over until the fat lady has sung.
Link Posted: 7/15/2019 4:11:35 PM EDT
[#26]
Americans generally 'don't change horses in the middle of the stream'.

Without some truly viable scandal and/or an unprecedented level of voter fraud...Trump will win reelection handily.
Link Posted: 7/15/2019 4:14:05 PM EDT
[#27]
Considering that half of the Republicans will be working against President Trump, the Dems have a pretty damn good chance.
Link Posted: 7/15/2019 4:16:34 PM EDT
[#28]
I don't think the "hate Trump" ranks have grown any significantly, in fact they have probably shrunk as people experience the economy and see how the media has been lying.  I think if things keep going the way they are, he'll win bigger than last time.
Link Posted: 7/16/2019 8:49:25 AM EDT
[#29]
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Quoted:
Considering that half of the Republicans will be working against President Trump, the Dems have a pretty damn good chance.
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They've already thrown elections on the state level.  Not too hard to envision them upping that game a notch.
Link Posted: 7/16/2019 9:11:37 AM EDT
[#30]
They count the votes, so yeah. They're angrier and more motivated too.
Link Posted: 7/16/2019 9:15:23 AM EDT
[#31]
Link Posted: 7/16/2019 9:20:04 AM EDT
[#32]
Fuck if I know- people are uber-polarized, the media propaganda arm is in overdrive, and I suspect the usual chicanery from the democrats. The GOP appears to move in slow motion (as always).

It’s chaos out there.
Link Posted: 7/16/2019 9:34:17 AM EDT
[#33]
It's Trump's to lose.
Link Posted: 7/16/2019 9:35:48 AM EDT
[#34]
They have a slight chance to beat him. As Ben Shapiro says, all they had to do was not be crazy, but they cant help themselves.

I think they're expecting much more support from their base than they actually will get. They seem to be expecting the same kind of fervor that elected Trump. But that energy doesn't exist on the left.

For now, Biden seems to be their best/only bet for beating Trump. I think most people realize how crazy the left has become. Though I fully expect Joe to be sent down the river because he isn't extreme or intersectional enough to get all of the news attention he needs to win.
Link Posted: 7/16/2019 9:53:42 AM EDT
[#35]
I think they will learn their lessons from the last election and cheat harder.
Link Posted: 7/16/2019 9:55:39 AM EDT
[#36]
With the current crop, a small chance.

They'll pull an Obama again though. The person who the DNC will pick is not in the limelight yet.
Link Posted: 7/17/2019 9:15:25 AM EDT
[#37]
The ONLY reason Trump won IMHO was he was willing to say " fuck you " to the left. He was willing to rub their noses in shit, he was willing to stir things up, and he was unwilling to be meek and play the PC game, as thats a 100% losing position. His WWF in your face, fuck you style of politicing was what attracted the right to him, it made him stand out, as almost every conservative wanted to do what he could do, say fuck you to the left. . The left would have fucking hated ANY republican candidate, and treated them just as badly as they have trump, because anyone not pushing their agenda, is a fucking racist nazi. no other candidate IMHO could have stood up to them the way trump has.

Trump won because of his in your face style of politicing, there was no other republican candidate who stood a chance, as they were just carbon copies of what they thought a politician should look and act like... the exact thing most people are fucking sick of seeing.

Dems will attempt to beat Trump by putting up what they THINK people want. Diversity. They will likely end up running a black woman, probably a gay black woman, to hit as many of those talking points / victim points they love so much. Hopefully your regular working blue collar democrats will run away from this shit, and start voting republican... although that would involve going against their unions, and party line, so i kind of doubt it.
Link Posted: 7/17/2019 9:17:45 AM EDT
[#38]
Anything can happen.
Link Posted: 7/17/2019 9:33:30 AM EDT
[#39]
Trump couldn’t beat Megan Rapinoe
Link Posted: 7/17/2019 9:38:26 AM EDT
[#40]
Yes because no matter who is running the basic split is 50/50 it seems.

Edit: After reading the thread and all the good points, I am thinking they will win.
Link Posted: 7/17/2019 10:03:00 AM EDT
[#41]
The democratic party is eating itself. with the continued in-fighting and back stabbing, I doubt if the party will even be recognizable much less have a chance of fielding a viable candidate. the only hope they have is the continued organization of rampant voter fraud. I firmly believe that if we could guarantee 100% fair and honest elections, most of the current dem officials would never have been elected in the first place.
Link Posted: 7/17/2019 10:07:25 AM EDT
[#42]
between promising free shit, the media constantly lying about Trump being the most awful person, and voter fraud, they have a chance

The more people who start seeing the "free shit" that every one of the dems is offering is a way to buy votes with other peoples money, the better chance we have of saving America.
Link Posted: 7/17/2019 10:10:53 AM EDT
[#43]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
The democratic party is eating itself. with the continued in-fighting and back stabbing, I doubt if the party will even be recognizable much less have a chance of fielding a viable candidate. the only hope they have is the continued organization of rampant voter fraud. I firmly believe that if we could guarantee 100% fair and honest elections, most of the current dem officials would never have been elected in the first place.
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All the fighting will end the second they have a candidate and all the lefty talk will change to more moderate talk. The middle of the road voters will forget it happened.
Link Posted: 7/17/2019 10:31:53 AM EDT
[#44]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
All the fighting will end the second they have a candidate and all the lefty talk will change to more moderate talk. The middle of the road voters will forget it happened.
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This, they tend to back anyone once a decision has been made for them.  Reps need to launch a plan to get a bigger share of the suburban housewife, a few points will make the difference.  There probably won't be a least hated candidate this go around.
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