Russia was okay up to this fall then nose dived but looking like will increase in 2nd quarter? https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Why-2023-Is-Likely-To-See-Much-Higher-Oil-Prices.amp.html

I think this calls for sending Ukraine another 100 billion dollars. Anyone that disagrees is a Russian troll.

https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-war-shows-europe-too-reliant-us-finland-pm-says-2022-12-02/

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-asked-by-sanctions-hit-russia-parts-key-sectors-sources-2022-11-29/

Officially 68 billion but I estimate 80 billion

It's like my numbers I wrote months ago were correct.... Wild.


Russian oil export volume is supposedly predicted to go down 2m bbl/day in 2023. So down to around 5.5m
More than a smidge. It could drop more than that as well depending on a number of other things. Their future drilling / production capacity is going to fall off without western drilling technology.

I’m definitely worried about children with much of the infrastructure damaged. The sick and the elderly are likely to be affected with current weather predictions switching from unusually warm fall to polar vortex winter next month.  https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/02/ukraine-family-winter-russia-war-novomoskovsk

Germany worried its economy is about to crater. Inflation was the complaint from German automakers and yesterday news from retail wasn’t good      

LOL no

Russia say BRICS market price or freeze mothertruckers!

Euro green weenies are currently claiming situation proves Europe needs to go 100% green

I could be outdated for Japan. This is no longer the case? https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2022/11/b7ea9d8ec6d2-us-excludes-oil-for-japan-from-russias-sakhalin-2-from-price-cap.html

Oil companies can sell to the .gov at $70 per barrel to refill the strategic reserve but put in stipulations that any future draw out will be paid at current market (plus inflation) minus $70 per barrel.

I can’t recall exactly but I think you said China and India would not be able to offset that for Russia. I’m guessing Russia still wants to develop Vostok and as much of the arctic as possible https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2022/11/putins-top-oilman-praises-xi-jinping-invites-china-arctic

Guess there are some working pipe lines.

US Naval policy is to be able to beat anyone anywhere, to include almost all at the same time.

One Seawolf can beat the German navy on its own, add in a Virginia or two and then the French are toast.

Besides the Chinese and Japanese, only the Russians have anything close.

More so the deep discounts that China (and India) were paying for oil. I estimated between a 30-50% hair cut at the time, depending on freight costs per bbl, as China and India would want a delivered price, so they would not be responsible for the shipment.

As for the volume - yes. China isn't going to take all of Russia's volume, neither is India. Both of those countries have contract pricing with other NOC. (National Oil Companies.)  They have to honor the volume in the contract one way or another.  So what China is particularly doing, is buying Cargos from SA, UAE, Etc. Per-contract, then reselling those cargos to Europe and other nations before they set sail.  

This is costing China money, however with their contract pricing off spot, is going to be discounted. And then buying the Russia oil at an even steeper discount, they will still be in a net positive.

So let's say hypothetically they have contract pricing with SA for Opec basket minus 10.  They're going to sell it to Europe for Opec basket minus 9. But they're buying Urals at minus 30.  

So off today's price (again this is completely hypothetical, pulled out of the air numbers.)

Spot price OPEC Basket is currently $84.39 - So they're paying $74.39.

They're selling it at $75.39 to Europe.  Making $1/bbl - just enough to carry the paper essentially.

But, they're buying Ural crude at $84.78 minus 30. So $54.78  

They're up $20.61 in savings.

Downside - Major risks, higher transaction costs, longer shipping times. So it logistically might not always work. The blend is probably inefficient in their refineries vs Opec basket. Etc. But, 20 buck is 20 buck. It's going to cost them a couple bucks for efficiency, logistics, etc.  



As for drilling - they can hope and wish all they want to drill in the arctic and such. The reality is: Without western drilling technology, it ain't happening. At least, not in a productive manner.

Looks at Ukraine conflict

and America goes into debt to save Ukraine while getting in bed with commies etc to give us oil and our allies cave as they put themselves into a corner.


.

GD Vatnyk bait

The pipeline that was blown is actually 2 lines, and from what I understand one is still functional.

Maybe there's something to the corruption narrative?  Or the Euros have told Zelensky that all help stops if he cuts their oil?

That said, even at 100 billion USD (if it is indeed that high), it's a bargain to degrade the capabilities of one of our two major enemies. We certainly have gotten more for our buck than we did for 20+ years in SW Asia, spending 15x more and not even counting the blood.  Or what we'll likely receive from (100 × 1B USD---anyone who thinks the price/unit will stay at 511M, works for NG) 100 billion spent on the B-21...

5 pages on its unveiling, and like three posts wondering about the actual costs...LOL.

Europe gonna Europe

Indian buys at $60.99 barrel.

Which I think is the entire point.

This isn't to make a deal and get oil, it's to show the masses that they tried. It's meant to fail and shift blame for any winter shortages

This is just the latest Russia stronk propaganda.

China is going to buy from Russia for a much lower price and Russia will do it