User Panel
Posted: 7/25/2019 7:58:24 PM EST
In my view, we can thank Trump for this cut.
I don't recall any other Presidents that called out the Fed for raising rates. Usually the President sits back and says "whatever". Over 95% of 111 economists now predict a 25 basis point cut at the July 30-31 meeting. Only two economists polled expected a 50 basis point reduction and a further two said the Fed would hold steady. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-poll/fed-to-cut-rates-for-first-time-in-a-decade-this-month-reuters-poll-idUSKCN1UK00M |
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Boy, I'm sure artificially lowered interest rates will work great this time around!
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Spell this out for us financial novices.
You’re making this sound like Doom is coming. |
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Wasn’t there a thread last year about this stuff....economy dying, page after page of doom and gloom, and it never happened. What happened with that and why didn’t we die?
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Spell this out for us financial novices. You’re making this sound like Doom is coming. View Quote I guess OP is actually talking about the federal funds rate, but prime is based off that. The funds rate can be used to try and control inflation. |
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I’ve put it all into beanie babies - this is going to pay off yuge!!
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Spell this out for us financial novices. You're making this sound like Doom is coming. View Quote - If your bank offers a CD that pays 2.5% now, you may be able to only get a 2.25% CD one month from now. - Instead of lousy CD rates, more people will put their money into stocks that pay a healthy dividend. So electric utilities stocks may rise. - Mortgage rates may ease a bit. |
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They wouldn't have to do this if someone hadn't done something, i.e. started multiple trade wars.
Just saying. |
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Uhhh...cutting rates is going to increase the velocity of money. DJIA 30k will be the next significant support level once the rates change. After that, who knows. Making money cheap to borrow is good for business.
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Uhhh...cutting rates is going to increase the velocity of money. DJIA 30k will be the next significant support level once the rates change. After that, who knows. Making money cheap to borrow is good for business. View Quote |
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Spell this out for us financial novices. You're making this sound like Doom is coming. View Quote BUT, no rate cut will cause a stock market rout because it was expected but didn't happen. Kind of a no-win situation. Especially at all-time market highs. But the best course would be to do what was expected. At least a .25 cut. |
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Meh. I don't think it's a good move but I'm not in charge of this shit. I'll do my best to make money in whatever environment I find myself in.
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If they drop a quarter point, that's probably enough now for me to bother with a refinance on the main house. I approve.
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Wasn’t there a thread last year about this stuff....economy dying, page after page of doom and gloom, and it never happened. What happened with that and why didn’t we die? View Quote Trading our daughters for a bag of salt and our labor for a silver coin a day to those who were smart enough to hoard tampons and toilet paper and save their copper pennies |
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Spell this out for us financial novices. You’re making this sound like Doom is coming. View Quote Interest rates in natural terms can be thought of as their own pricing signals (the price to purchase money which is what a loan ultimately is). Interest rates are a signal for entrepreneurs and others when it is time to invest or borrow and when it is time to save. High interest rates are a signal that it is time to save and to borrow less. Low interest rates are a signal that it is a safe time to invest or borrow. Now this does not mean that all investments will pay off as nothing here establishes or overrides personal decisions. This artificial lowering of the rates encourages reckless investment that will ultimately result in a bust. High interest rates curb investment due to the cost or rather, encourage more cautious investment or borrowing. Actors are far more cautious about investing or borrowing under high rates whereas low prices on borrowing or investing encourage it. This is the basics behind the 2008 housing crisis. Boom and Bust cycles are healthy economic cycles but a lot of actors such as the Fed or other authorities seek to avoid the bust thinking that artificially lowered interest rates will keep the boom going. The reason a boom is good should be obvious, but a bust is not so obvious. A bust does hurt, there's no way around that, but it is a self correcting process. A bust allows those that misappropriated resources and put them into unstable efforts to fall by the wayside and allow for other more stable endeavors to rise. You can think of it like getting injured. It sucks and it hurts, but it teaches you what not to do. ETS: Think of Boom and Bust as good decisions and errors. Several small busts are normal (such as some restaurants going under here and there). A Bust period however is far more substantial and is a cluster of errors. These "errors" in real terms are basically businesses screwing up and hitting hard times. This is can either be simple change sin the Market (people's purchasing decisions) and/or bad decisions made by business owners that result in their hard times. Artificially trying to keep these zombie businesses going ultimately ends up extending the bust period (Ex. Bailouts) instead of letting it happen, take the pain, and move on. |
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It’s already possible I’m the last homeowner in America to not refinance since 2010.
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In my view, we can thank Trump for this cut. I don't recall any other Presidents that called out the Fed for raising rates. Usually the President sits back and says "whatever". Over 95% of 111 economists now predict a 25 basis point cut at the July 30-31 meeting. Only two economists polled expected a 50 basis point reduction and a further two said the Fed would hold steady. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-poll/fed-to-cut-rates-for-first-time-in-a-decade-this-month-reuters-poll-idUSKCN1UK00M View Quote Low interest rates are the hallmark of an economy in serious trouble. Low interest rates are not economically viable long term. They are kryptonite to many types of pensions, funds, retirement funds and insurance companies. There are massive global economic problems. The world still hasn’t dealt with the 2008 derivative bomb. Deutsche Bank just got out of the derivatives game globally the other week. They were the biggest financial player in the derivatives game. What do they know that we don’t? Lowering rates means the Fed has no other options left to combat an economy that is slowing down. This shit happens almost like clockwork every 7-10 years. As much as I prefer Trump to any other options, he has 0 influence over the decisions of the Fed. |
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I just closed on my refi. From 6.1% to 4.2% I’ll be saving over $300 a month. I’m just happy I finally have some equity I’m my house after 10 years of owning it.
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If this is what it takes to kneecap China...I am fine with it. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes |
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You actually think low interest rates are a good thing? ... View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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In my view, we can thank Trump for this cut. I don't recall any other Presidents that called out the Fed for raising rates. Usually the President sits back and says "whatever". Over 95% of 111 economists now predict a 25 basis point cut at the July 30-31 meeting. Only two economists polled expected a 50 basis point reduction and a further two said the Fed would hold steady. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-poll/fed-to-cut-rates-for-first-time-in-a-decade-this-month-reuters-poll-idUSKCN1UK00M ... - I don't think about lower rates in terms of: is this good or bad? - I think about lower rates in terms of: what should I do prepare for this? I am buying some dividend-paying stocks. Hopefully they'll pop a bit next week. |
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One other thing to consider is that because the Fed has kept interest rates artificially low for so long, it has had two detrimental effects. First, as a poster above pointed out, there is a tsunami of malinvestment because the cost of borrowing is next-to-nothing. When interest rates fail to reflect the true cost of money, they provide an incentive for this malinvestment which MUST correct at some point. Second, artificially low interest rates are DESTROYING the ability to have low-risk savings that generate a sufficient return to be of value. So, those on fixed incomes, pension funds (which used to be REQUIRED to invest in low-risk investments), and average savers are being screwed and, before interest rates revert to their mean, a generation of individuals will have had their opportunity to secure their financial future destroyed.
Also, low interest rates are enabling the .gov to continue its profligate spending by artificially letting the .gov borrow at lower rates. |
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Even though I want to buy a house in 2 years the interest rates need to go the fuck up. Someone has to start carrying this water.
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When that Monday comes we will all be sorry. View Quote buy when there's blood in the streets |
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#1 Get people to anticipate a rate drop
#2 Keep rate the same #3 Orange Man bad because rate stayed the same as opposed to dropping as anticipated....did I mention Orange Man bad? |
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Boy, I'm sure artificially lowered interest rates will work great this time around! View Quote Quoted:
A rate cut is a tantamount admission the economy is slowing and needs to be propped up to prevent recession. Once the expected news happens there will probably be a sell off now that expectations have been met. The only expectations left to meet is some kind of end to the trade war with China, which is unlikely, because the Chinese know the trade war is hurting the US economy and thus Trump's re-election prospects. The CCP starved 50 million people to death in order to implement its goals. They aren't going to back down on a piddly trade war if it means getting rid of Trump. They can't be dislodged because of a bad economy. BUT, no rate cut will cause a stock market rout because it was expected but didn't happen. Kind of a no-win situation. Especially at all-time market highs. But the best course would be to do what was expected. At least a .25 cut. View Quote |
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