Just warming up

Irma was last one that effected me. That was 5 years ago. Then the 2004 year kanes. They don't strongly effect the whole state normally

Latest update...


Key Points
1. Development into a tropical storm will likely occur over the weekend.
2. There is considerable uncertainty concerning the track beyond day 4.
3 A significant eastward and southward track adjustment for Wednesday and Thursday may be coming in future advisories.

Our Forecast
There are no significant changes from this morning's advisory. Computer models that had driven the center into the middle of the Gulf have shifted well eastward toward Florida with the potential track. We are becoming more confident that the center will turn northeast after passing Cuba, but the timing and location of that turn are quite uncertain. This potential hurricane could turn more quickly and clip the southern tip of Florida, a scenario that is favored by latest model data. Once the disturbance becomes better organized this weekend, we will have a better idea of where it will make landfall in Florida. Note that we think that the storm may have a better chance of striking the southern Florida Peninsula than making landfall in the Panhandle. We may be making significant eastward track adjustments over the next several advisories. If the storm does take a more southern path into the lower Florida Peninsula, then landfall could come as early as Tuesday.

Concerning its potential intensity, that is an uncertainty as well. It appears that the northwest Caribbean will have the most favorable environment on its path. We think that the disturbance will become a hurricane there, possibly a very strong hurricane. There are more uncertainties once it moves into the Gulf, as a combination of increasing wind shear and dry air flowing across the central Gulf behind a cold front could cause weakening before the center reaches Florida. How much it may weaken, if at all, is uncertain.

As for those operating offshore south of Louisiana, in a worst case of the storm tracking farther west, you will have all day Tuesday for any evacuations. Wednesday is questionable, because if the storm moves a little faster and tracks west of our forecast, squalls could reach the deepwater areas offshore southeast Louisiana Wednesday afternoon. If the potential hurricane follows our current forecast track or is farther east, then outer squalls should remain east of Mississippi Canyon.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#98L

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Weather forecast this morning showed a west coast hit in Florida, so I decided to hunker down in the east coast in Fort Lauderdale.  As soon as I make that decision all the models are now showing it hitting Fort Lauderdale and running north up the coast.  The Palm Beach marinas I called said they're going to evacuate because they're not storm safe.  I don't know if it's worth it to run south through the keys to the west coast given the uncertainty (and risk of the storm catching you on teh way).  The wind field looks like it will reach the Bahamas, so there don't appear to be any safe places for boats right now....

Come on up to the panhandle

All the cap’ns here bring their boats into the intercoastal between the Choctawhatchee and West Bay and hunker down.

Little confused about which storm we are talking about.  Fiona is heading Northeast at the moment, and looking like another fish storm.  The storm in the Southern Caribbean has no real tracking projected - but they think might brush Venezuela.   There certainly is no tracking yet on the developing storms off of Africa.  

98L
Do you not understand spaghetti models?
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Invest 98l is the storm being talked about here.

Sam’s in Naples was empty—of people.

TC

I live in the Brandon area and we never lost power during Irma.

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https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-74.66,23.76,750/loc=-69.870,30.425

It's this one....

Yeah, I'll pass on that one.

Tagscribed

You win the internetz today my friend.

East edge of the center come over my house. Had no power for 5 days...

Run it up into the mangroves, tie it down, anchors out and batten down the hatches. Should be dry afterwards. You may need to be towed off the mangroves, and do that quickly to avoid any fines.

Or not.

Same for me

But I had an advantage. We had/have a travel trailer with propane fridge. I took all perishables out of
house fridge and put in camper. I was able to run it the whole time on less than one 20 pound tank of propane.
also ran water heater on propane.

I have generators and was able to sleep in a/c and take hot showers each day. I was the best smelling person
at work each day.

A camper is very useful as long as it does not get damaged in storm.

All these predictions are cute but what does Frankie say?

Update

Key Points ?
1. Development into a tropical storm will likely occur over the weekend. ?2. The forecast track beyond 72 hours has been shifted east. ?3 Confidence is increasing that Florida will be impacted by a hurricane during the middle of next week.

Our Forecast ?
Disturbance 35 is gradually becoming better organized over the southeast Caribbean. A well-defined low level circulation is now present. However, the thunderstorm activity is not organized enough to classify the system as a depression. That said, we expect it will become a depression or a tropical storm by tomorrow afternoon.

The forecast track is relatively unchanged through the first 72 hours. We expect it will move south of Jamaica. Changes to the forecast were made beyond, mainly shifting the track to the east. This change means we expect the system to track near or over Grand Cayman Island Sunday night. It is expected to cross western Cuba Monday night. The forecast track now takes the system closer to the Florida Keys and southwest Florida Tuesday into Wednesday. Landfall is forecast to occur very early Thursday north of Tampa. If there are future shifts, it appears they would be shifts to the east and not to the west. A shift to the east would result in a significantly earlier landfall time.

Environmental conditions should become more favorable for development with time. Thus, we have increased the chance of development slightly. Our forecast is for this to be a hurricane when it moves near or over the Cayman Islands. It could become a rather strong hurricane when it moves over Cuba. Increasing wind shear may cause slight weakening before landfall if it takes our forecast track. We are forecasting winds of 100 mph at landfall. It could be stronger if it were to make landfall farther south.

Funny story...

Had a gen hooked up to the house. Couldn't run the A/C but could run everything else inside (one 220 item at a time). So we had nice hot showers bit couldn't sleep for crap in the heat.

The next week I went out back at work and turned the corner and there sit my camper (I store it there) I didn't even think about draging home and sleeping nicely in A/C.

Now I have a bigger generator and a bigger camper if needed that I won't forget about this time.

Different models I guess.  This is what I saw at the national hurricane center site.  So far they really are not showing much of a northward hook.  That said, they have raised it to a 90% chance of formation.

Bollocks. I'm in Cozumel sat-wed...

Now we know whats up.

Latest, shifting east

This could be interesting

At some point in the next 50 years, the Tampa Bay area is going to take a solid hit from a cat 3+ storm.

When that happens, it's going to render a few hundred thousand people homeless, and probably another million or two without power for 2-4 weeks at a minimum. It's going to be another Andrew/Katrina level event, and there will be endless recriminations and finger-pointing during the inevitable hearings and lawsuits. The entire bay area is hopelessly unprepared for a major storm, and the disaster response is a joke. The lessons learned three decades ago in southern FL with Andrew were never learned by planners over on the west coast, not really.

I don't think the region will recover for at least a decade after the fact.

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That is funny, but now you are better prepared.

Gotta admit, not feeling warm fuzzies about how the storm is shaping up (especially sitting here in Tampa). Obviously, no panic, but definitely ensuring the rest of my preps are up to shape. Bought our home last year, so still not sure how she rides out storms; hoping to not yet find out.

Running up the west coast would be something of a problem.

Nah. The power issues in south Tampa are due to the old power lines and the “Grand” oaks growing through them that teco and the tree huggers with the city of Tampa refuse to maintain. Teco is pretty good about getting power up and running. Flooding would mainly be people along the Hillsborough and Alifia along with bayshore and downtown.

Was pretty crazy walking out to bayshore when Irma came through and seeing it suck all the water out of the bay before making land fall.

This is to all the transplants that have moved here recently. Don’t be that guy that panics last minute and boards your windows up with drywall. It’s not stopping crap and it’s going to get soaked and be a mess to clean up after you try and take it down.

Stay safe Florida bros, sure looks like it is coming right for yall.

Hurricane coming, Stock market crashing and Joe Biden as president.

I’m currently in Orlando and will be here another week. Do I need to be planning to leave early?

This is looking increasingly not good for me

Things can obviously change but looking at maybe a Cat 2 when it hits the coast? That should not cause an apocalypse but widespread power outages is certainly possible. I’d make sure your vehicle has a full tank of gas and maybe have a  of bottled water and a flashlight available. If people start panic buying this weekend there will be lines at the gas stations and bottled water is the first thing the stores run out of

I’m near Tampa and I’m just going to make sure all my gas cans/tanks are full. Other than that I’m just going to grab a large bag of dog food and  of chicken food. I might get some additional shelf stable people food if it starts looking like we may take a direct hit. The house is already prepped as I have impact widows and a good roof. I also service my generator routinely and don’t leave debris around that the winds could pick up. It’s nice not to board up the windows anymore

I’m in the same boat but about an hour south. This will be my first storm in my current house, first storm living on acreage and the first with livestock.

I was born and raised here so I’m not new to storms but the new house, the property and livestock will make this one a new experience

It definitely looks like there is a Hurricane magnet on Skyline.  

Didn't Blackfox say he was heading back to the west coast?  Looks like its aiming for Sanibel Island.  

Same; not my first rodeo (Irma was fun, though we bugged out a few hours north to be sure), but i am hoping our new place comes through.  Sadly, we need some upgrades (still have the ancient crank windows) to feel really good, but we will make do as needed.

I think the biggest issue is going to be my daughter. She worries (not sure why, as its never happened) about flooding (we are 46' ASL), so a direct hit may be pretty rough for her. Hopefully riding one out will get her past some of that.. if it happens.

Guess its time to go fill the gas jugs late tonight.

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