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Quoted: If the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, the impact on global oil supply is massive—one of the largest shocks possible. Here’s the realistic scale: ?? ?? Total oil supply disruption Normal flow through Hormuz: About ~20% of global oil supply Roughly 20 million barrels per day ?? Why it’s not a full 20% drop (important nuance) Even with a “closure”: 1) Alternative routes exist Saudi pipelines to the Red Sea UAE pipeline to Fujairah ?? These reduce losses somewhat Even a 10% disruption is: ?? The largest oil shock since the 1970s ?? Real-world effects already seen Oil prices spiking toward or above $100–$140+ Global Economic crisis inbound ?? Oil impact: ~$150 ? $200+ per barrel Some forecasts suggest extreme spikes near $200 ? Gas price: ?? $6.00 – $9.00+ per gallon MIGA Fucking AI slop. This shit is ruining the internet- the forums are the last place on the net to interact with people. This is the second thread in a row I’ve clicked where some fucktard posted AI slop. If I wanted to talk to bots, I’d go ask Chat GPT. Rant off. *click* on user. |
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Quoted: If there are things you will need (actually need) soon, not putting them off might save you headache. I was motivated to change all the vehicle oils that are anywhere near needing it and replace some tires I was going to need to replace in the next 90 days anyway. Also I decided to neckbeard some nitrile gloves. Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: I'm not trying to disrupt anyones doom party but Crude is down %13 That’s good for fuel pricing. However petrochemical complexes are still down and damaged. It’s still going to take 90+ days to get shipping restored. Base oils in the U.S. are already running out. And we will see what the next 2 weeks brings. Like what 13% of global production? That means we still have 87% Please see the video in the start of the thread. And my posts throughout this thread. Particularly the ones where I posted pictures. Crude =/= finished product. I will try to watch the video later and go read your posts. The reality is it’s all out of my control so there is really no point in letting it get me worried or worked up. If there are things you will need (actually need) soon, not putting them off might save you headache. I was motivated to change all the vehicle oils that are anywhere near needing it and replace some tires I was going to need to replace in the next 90 days anyway. Also I decided to neckbeard some nitrile gloves. Ive been neck bearding crap for so long I had to stop. All my oils are changed and tires are all good. I have plenty of nitrile gloves. |
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Quoted: If the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, the impact on global oil supply is massive—one of the largest shocks possible. Here’s the realistic scale: ?? ?? Total oil supply disruption Normal flow through Hormuz: About ~20% of global oil supply Roughly 20 million barrels per day ?? Why it’s not a full 20% drop (important nuance) Even with a “closure”: 1) Alternative routes exist Saudi pipelines to the Red Sea UAE pipeline to Fujairah ?? These reduce losses somewhat Even a 10% disruption is: ?? The largest oil shock since the 1970s ?? Real-world effects already seen Oil prices spiking toward or above $100–$140+ Global Economic crisis inbound ?? Oil impact: ~$150 ? $200+ per barrel Some forecasts suggest extreme spikes near $200 ? Gas price: ?? $6.00 – $9.00+ per gallon MIGA Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Will be interesting to see what the blockade of the Strait does to prices. It will be completely catastrophic especially if Iran retaliates by taking out the rest of the GCC oil and gas infrastructure. If the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, the impact on global oil supply is massive—one of the largest shocks possible. Here’s the realistic scale: ?? ?? Total oil supply disruption Normal flow through Hormuz: About ~20% of global oil supply Roughly 20 million barrels per day ?? Why it’s not a full 20% drop (important nuance) Even with a “closure”: 1) Alternative routes exist Saudi pipelines to the Red Sea UAE pipeline to Fujairah ?? These reduce losses somewhat Even a 10% disruption is: ?? The largest oil shock since the 1970s ?? Real-world effects already seen Oil prices spiking toward or above $100–$140+ Global Economic crisis inbound ?? Oil impact: ~$150 ? $200+ per barrel Some forecasts suggest extreme spikes near $200 ? Gas price: ?? $6.00 – $9.00+ per gallon MIGA Politics aside. It’s like I knew what I was talking about… weeks ago. |
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Found Delo syn blend for $40 for 12qts and changed the old Cummins. Changed the Pilot too. Both were just due by mileage. Tractor needs it, I ordered filter set. Will get oil for that tomorrow. Diesel here came down 10 cents to 5.49. I have 24g here for the tractor which would get me through summer gardening and such if I am very careful. I am using some of my black diesel supply. No more than about 10% in either truck or tractor. I have told everyone I care about that chances are good we will see the highest ever fuel and oil prices soon. Some understand, some roll eyes. |
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Quoted: Politics aside. It's like I knew what I was talking about weeks ago. |
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Quoted: For fuel or lubricants? Lubricants, I mean eventually the seals will go bad and you’ll get some moisture in them. But that’s years. Fuel… uh, I wouldn’t store fuel inside your basement. Quoted: Quoted: Foxtrot does it make a difference storing indoors in a temp controlled basement for a few years or is it fine in Minnesota winters and summer in a shed? For fuel or lubricants? Lubricants, I mean eventually the seals will go bad and you’ll get some moisture in them. But that’s years. Fuel… uh, I wouldn’t store fuel inside your basement. Motor oil. Mostly synthetic. |
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Quoted: We've talked a lot about lube since you're in that biz. But, how do you think this will work out for things like packaging materials? Looking around my house, almost everything is packaged in plastic containers. Could this be the choke point that prevents everyday items from getting to market? Quoted: Quoted: Politics aside. It's like I knew what I was talking about weeks ago. Everything. I posted a few slides in another thread - https://www.ar15.com/forums/general/Foxtrot08-makes-an-oil-thread-/5-2724893/?page=43&#i116450897 And kinda went more in depth here: https://www.ar15.com/forums/general/The-1973-Oil-crisis--Are-we-in-similar-times-/5-2839817/?page=3#i116458535 I predicted then all the ship traffic would be turning to the U.S. and that was 10 days ago or so. In another thread I posted about my belief about how this would be a boom to the U.S. O&G industry in the long run. As supply chains are redrawn. |
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Quoted: Motor oil. Mostly synthetic. Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Foxtrot does it make a difference storing indoors in a temp controlled basement for a few years or is it fine in Minnesota winters and summer in a shed? For fuel or lubricants? Lubricants, I mean eventually the seals will go bad and you’ll get some moisture in them. But that’s years. Fuel… uh, I wouldn’t store fuel inside your basement. Motor oil. Mostly synthetic. Yeah. You’re good. Eventually the seals on the bottles will go, as the plastic swells and shrinks. Moisture will eventually creep in. But again that’s not for years. |
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Quoted: Everything. I posted a few slides in another thread - https://www.ar15.com/forums/general/Foxtrot08-makes-an-oil-thread-/5-2724893/?page=43&#i116450897 And kinda went more in depth here: https://www.ar15.com/forums/general/The-1973-Oil-crisis--Are-we-in-similar-times-/5-2839817/?page=3#i116458535 I predicted then all the ship traffic would be turning to the U.S. and that was 10 days ago or so. In another thread I posted about my belief about how this would be a boom to the U.S. O&G industry in the long run. As supply chains are redrawn. Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Politics aside. It's like I knew what I was talking about weeks ago. Everything. I posted a few slides in another thread - https://www.ar15.com/forums/general/Foxtrot08-makes-an-oil-thread-/5-2724893/?page=43&#i116450897 And kinda went more in depth here: https://www.ar15.com/forums/general/The-1973-Oil-crisis--Are-we-in-similar-times-/5-2839817/?page=3#i116458535 I predicted then all the ship traffic would be turning to the U.S. and that was 10 days ago or so. In another thread I posted about my belief about how this would be a boom to the U.S. O&G industry in the long run. As supply chains are redrawn. |
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Quoted:
Fug. Everything comes in polyethylene. Brb off to neckbeard ECH helmets. |
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No need to panic. Here in Western AR, gas is $3.56 at Walmart. About two weeks ago, it was $3.86. We aren't the lowest either. No need to panic. Arkansas gas tax: Gasoline Tax Rate: 24.7 cents per gallon. Diesel Tax Rate: 28.5 cents per gallon. And our roads are in good shape, too. The Blue states love to rape your wallet. |
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Quoted: Just replaced my f150 3.5l TT for a 2025 leased f150 lighting. Lightning is costing about $75 a month in electricity as opposed to $325 a month in the old truck. However, your towing capacity is half. For a joyrider, no big deal, but for a serious working truck, it's a loser. |
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Quoted: It's already a problem on the fertilizer side state side -- it's likely many times worse in Europe. Everyone likes to say "I'm not worried" or "it's temporary" because it's our guy in charge -- but it's just a form of copium. Like it or not markets are global, taking 20% of the oil supply off the market has an impact everywhere. Add in gas, fertilizer, aluminum, etc and this could be very serious globally in short order. For folks in SE Asia it already is. You are partly right. However, the excise tax varies widely. CA requires a special blend that drives the cost up even more. Transportation costs are another price driver. There is almost a $2.50 per gallon price difference between CA and AR for example. |
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Quoted: However, your towing capacity is half. For a joyrider, no big deal, but for a serious working truck, it's a loser. Depends on what serious work is. I local contractor I know has one and loves it. More torque than the big diesels had and a fraction of the fuel cost. He tows his skid steer and mini-excavator around with it. He works local so range is no issue, plugs it in in the shop every night. He uses and abuses that truck and tells me he couldn't be happier with it. loves having the power distribution option, they don't use gas generator any more, they pug into his truck. He also doesn't miss the cost of no.1 diesel all winter long wither. |
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Quoted: Should I be panic buying jugs of oil like the lunatics I saw in Walmart this weekend? It was a next level PITA to find Pennzoil Ultra Platinum locally (I wanted the rebate). The AMZ price has gone up. I have enough for two oil changes for both my vehicles, both just changed. If things haven't sorted themselves out 20k (10k x2) miles from now, we have bigger problems.  WM doesn't even carry it anymore.
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Quoted: No need to panic. Here in Western AR, gas is $3.56 at Walmart. About two weeks ago, it was $3.86. We aren't the lowest either. No need to panic. Arkansas gas tax: Gasoline Tax Rate: 24.7 cents per gallon. Diesel Tax Rate: 28.5 cents per gallon. And our roads are in good shape, too. The Blue states love to rape your wallet. They're building one of the crown jewels of the state's billion dollar bike trail system near you that will attract a whole flock of Californians to come rape Polk County.
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Quoted: Should I be panic buying jugs of oil like the lunatics I saw in Walmart this weekend?  Attached File Toyota synthetic is currently made by ExxonMobil. |
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Quoted: Grabbing enough for the next two or three oil changes for your vehicle is prudent, not panic buying. It's not toilet paper. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/69748/8704_jpg-3745937.JPG Toyota synthetic is currently made by ExxonMobil. Quoted: Quoted: Should I be panic buying jugs of oil like the lunatics I saw in Walmart this weekend? https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/69748/8704_jpg-3745937.JPG Toyota synthetic is currently made by ExxonMobil. I ordered some more today in 10w30. [M1 extended] so that'll put me at 95 qts for everything but 8 qts will be gone [15w50] with one drain, 2 filters and fill on one ride] That really only gets me a couple 3-4 oil changes for everything with all viscosity's. Prices are still good on line with free shipping as I ordered a bunch of lawn service and car parts and filters yesterday so it all has free shipping. |
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Quoted: Grabbing enough for the next two or three oil changes for your vehicle is prudent, not panic buying. It's not toilet paper. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/69748/8704_jpg-3745937.JPG Toyota synthetic is currently made by ExxonMobil. I got some of the WS Trans Fluid ordered last week since Toyota had another big sale. Gotta drain/fill the 4R when I get a chance. |
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Quoted: Grabbing enough for the next two or three oil changes for your vehicle is prudent, not panic buying. It's not toilet paper. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/69748/8704_jpg-3745937.JPG Toyota synthetic is currently made by ExxonMobil. The big bottles go in the LC200, the little bottles go in the smaller LC250. Toyota had their sale and nobody running it would ship the Toy motor oil, if they would, it wasn't worth it. Pennzoil Ultra Platinum for me. |
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Quoted: Politics aside. It’s like I knew what I was talking about… weeks ago. Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Will be interesting to see what the blockade of the Strait does to prices. It will be completely catastrophic especially if Iran retaliates by taking out the rest of the GCC oil and gas infrastructure. If the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, the impact on global oil supply is massive—one of the largest shocks possible. Here’s the realistic scale: ?? ?? Total oil supply disruption Normal flow through Hormuz: About ~20% of global oil supply Roughly 20 million barrels per day ?? Why it’s not a full 20% drop (important nuance) Even with a “closure”: 1) Alternative routes exist Saudi pipelines to the Red Sea UAE pipeline to Fujairah ?? These reduce losses somewhat Even a 10% disruption is: ?? The largest oil shock since the 1970s ?? Real-world effects already seen Oil prices spiking toward or above $100–$140+ Global Economic crisis inbound ?? Oil impact: ~$150 ? $200+ per barrel Some forecasts suggest extreme spikes near $200 ? Gas price: ?? $6.00 – $9.00+ per gallon MIGA Politics aside. It’s like I knew what I was talking about… weeks ago. You have posted “I was right, hear me roar” in multiple threads. We get it. Is your self identity that invested in being right on the internet about something? I’m asking out of concern. Once or twice is one thing, constantly posting it is interesting. |
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Quoted: You have posted “I was right, hear me roar” in multiple threads. We get it. Is your self identity that invested in being right on the internet about something? I’m asking out of concern. Once or twice is one thing, constantly posting it is interesting. Completely understandable for him to take a victory lap or 3. He's in the biz and knows what he speaks of and offers to share his knowledge and time here free of charge. Too many ankle biters shouting "DOOM!!" in his threads and being dismissive of him and providing no substantial evidence to the contrary. Victory laps encouraged IMO. |
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Quoted: You have posted “I was right, hear me roar” in multiple threads. We get it. Is your self identity that invested in being right on the internet about something? I’m asking out of concern. Once or twice is one thing, constantly posting it is interesting. I see you're newer here. He is a SME in this field. GD has this thing for not listening or shouting down SMEs and not paying attention or making up their own version/ideas. You can also see GD reading comprehension and critical thinking skills in this thread and the others "bUt MuH GAs PrICes aRe FiNE heRE" derp and not listening to the whole message and everything else he is talking about. GD can be a weird place, but you get used to it or ignore it. Hell, look at the TRT thread. All of our bad asses "Come and Tak'em" "Send bachelors" "Over my dead body types" yet most are scared of a fucking needle for giving themselves a shot. |
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Quoted: Completely understandable for him to take a victory lap or 3. He's in the biz and knows what he speaks of and offers to share his knowledge and time here free of charge. Too many ankle biters shouting "DOOM!!" in his threads and being dismissive of him and providing no substantial evidence to the contrary. Victory laps encouraged IMO. You said it much better than I did
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Quoted: You said it much better than I did Quoted: Quoted: Completely understandable for him to take a victory lap or 3. He's in the biz and knows what he speaks of and offers to share his knowledge and time here free of charge. Too many ankle biters shouting "DOOM!!" in his threads and being dismissive of him and providing no substantial evidence to the contrary. Victory laps encouraged IMO. You said it much better than I did Agreed. I had a reply ready but clicked the X instead. So many folks keep going on about we have our own oil here, we have enough gas and fuel... Well, that's not the topic at hand, it's more specific than that, and bringing good information, and discussing the facts is not anti-Trump. At this point the info is getting out there... Just have to google: "group 3 base oil shortage" I know I appreciate the insider info along with the fyi heads up. |
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Quoted: You have posted “I was right, hear me roar” in multiple threads. We get it. Is your self identity that invested in being right on the internet about something? I’m asking out of concern. Once or twice is one thing, constantly posting it is interesting. Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Will be interesting to see what the blockade of the Strait does to prices. It will be completely catastrophic especially if Iran retaliates by taking out the rest of the GCC oil and gas infrastructure. If the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, the impact on global oil supply is massive—one of the largest shocks possible. Here’s the realistic scale: ?? ?? Total oil supply disruption Normal flow through Hormuz: About ~20% of global oil supply Roughly 20 million barrels per day ?? Why it’s not a full 20% drop (important nuance) Even with a “closure”: 1) Alternative routes exist Saudi pipelines to the Red Sea UAE pipeline to Fujairah ?? These reduce losses somewhat Even a 10% disruption is: ?? The largest oil shock since the 1970s ?? Real-world effects already seen Oil prices spiking toward or above $100–$140+ Global Economic crisis inbound ?? Oil impact: ~$150 ? $200+ per barrel Some forecasts suggest extreme spikes near $200 ? Gas price: ?? $6.00 – $9.00+ per gallon MIGA Politics aside. It’s like I knew what I was talking about… weeks ago. You have posted “I was right, hear me roar” in multiple threads. We get it. Is your self identity that invested in being right on the internet about something? I’m asking out of concern. Once or twice is one thing, constantly posting it is interesting. Multiple threads, generally the same topic. People read and reply to different threads. Sometimes you need to repeat yourself. As, not everyone reads every thread on the same topic. We have this one. We my giant thread. We have the 1973 oil embargo thread. We have the Costco thread. The tanker moving thread. As well as others, I believe. So yeah. Not everyone will read all of them. I’d be more concerned with the fact you took time out of your life to write that post. But, c’est la vie, everyone has different opinions. If you’re going to be concerned about me. Be concerned that I’m posting here while on vacation. Not because I repeat myself. |
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Quoted: Fug. Everything comes in polyethylene. Brb off to neckbeard ECH helmets. Quoted: Quoted:
Fug. Everything comes in polyethylene. Brb off to neckbeard ECH helmets. Even the jugs all the oil people are buying is made from polyethylene, primarily LDPE (Low Density Polyethylene). It is widely used in industries all over, ever hear of UHMW - that stands for ultra high molecular weight polyethylene - it's used in conveyors and a lot of wear strip type applications. HDPE (High Density PE) is used for a lot of wire insulation and conduit, household goods, and caps for the LDPE bottles among other things. All polymers are affected, I ordered some acetal today that was more expensive than when I quoted this job a few weeks ago. |
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Quoted: I see you're newer here. He is a SME in this field. GD has this thing for not listening or shouting down SMEs and not paying attention or making up their own version/ideas. You can also see GD reading comprehension and critical thinking skills in this thread and the others "bUt MuH GAs PrICes aRe FiNE heRE" derp and not listening to the whole message and everything else he is talking about. GD can be a weird place, but you get used to it or ignore it. Hell, look at the TRT thread. All of our bad asses "Come and Tak'em" "Send bachelors" "Over my dead body types" yet most are scared of a fucking needle for giving themselves a shot. As one of the SME in tariff shit (customs broker), I had people who have no knowledge of the industry shooting me down last year when the Trump tariffs were first introduced. After a while, you stop giving much info. |
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Quoted: Completely understandable for him to take a victory lap or 3. He's in the biz and knows what he speaks of and offers to share his knowledge and time here free of charge. Too many ankle biters shouting "DOOM!!" in his threads and being dismissive of him and providing no substantial evidence to the contrary. Victory laps encouraged IMO. Quoted: Quoted: You have posted “I was right, hear me roar” in multiple threads. We get it. Is your self identity that invested in being right on the internet about something? I’m asking out of concern. Once or twice is one thing, constantly posting it is interesting. Completely understandable for him to take a victory lap or 3. He's in the biz and knows what he speaks of and offers to share his knowledge and time here free of charge. Too many ankle biters shouting "DOOM!!" in his threads and being dismissive of him and providing no substantial evidence to the contrary. Victory laps encouraged IMO. +1 We’re all subject matter experts in something so nothing wrong with sharing info. People also @ him in threads about oil so they want and respect his opinion. |
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Quoted: No need to panic. Here in Western AR, gas is $3.56 at Walmart. About two weeks ago, it was $3.86. We aren't the lowest either. No need to panic. Arkansas gas tax: Gasoline Tax Rate: 24.7 cents per gallon. Diesel Tax Rate: 28.5 cents per gallon. And our roads are in good shape, too. The Blue states love to rape your wallet. I’m in Midland TX right now. $5.86/gallon for diesel. |
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Quoted: Politics aside. It’s like I knew what I was talking about… weeks ago. Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Will be interesting to see what the blockade of the Strait does to prices. It will be completely catastrophic especially if Iran retaliates by taking out the rest of the GCC oil and gas infrastructure. If the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, the impact on global oil supply is massive—one of the largest shocks possible. Here’s the realistic scale: ?? ?? Total oil supply disruption Normal flow through Hormuz: About ~20% of global oil supply Roughly 20 million barrels per day ?? Why it’s not a full 20% drop (important nuance) Even with a “closure”: 1) Alternative routes exist Saudi pipelines to the Red Sea UAE pipeline to Fujairah ?? These reduce losses somewhat Even a 10% disruption is: ?? The largest oil shock since the 1970s ?? Real-world effects already seen Oil prices spiking toward or above $100–$140+ Global Economic crisis inbound ?? Oil impact: ~$150 ? $200+ per barrel Some forecasts suggest extreme spikes near $200 ? Gas price: ?? $6.00 – $9.00+ per gallon MIGA Politics aside. It’s like I knew what I was talking about… weeks ago. So when is this all supposed to hit? Gas is around $4.00 here with some places $3.89. That’s regular 87. Pure gas about .75 more. |
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Quoted: So when is this all supposed to hit? Gas is around $4.00 here with some places $3.89. That’s regular 87. Pure gas about .75 more. Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Will be interesting to see what the blockade of the Strait does to prices. It will be completely catastrophic especially if Iran retaliates by taking out the rest of the GCC oil and gas infrastructure. If the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, the impact on global oil supply is massive—one of the largest shocks possible. Here’s the realistic scale: ?? ?? Total oil supply disruption Normal flow through Hormuz: About ~20% of global oil supply Roughly 20 million barrels per day ?? Why it’s not a full 20% drop (important nuance) Even with a “closure”: 1) Alternative routes exist Saudi pipelines to the Red Sea UAE pipeline to Fujairah ?? These reduce losses somewhat Even a 10% disruption is: ?? The largest oil shock since the 1970s ?? Real-world effects already seen Oil prices spiking toward or above $100–$140+ Global Economic crisis inbound ?? Oil impact: ~$150 ? $200+ per barrel Some forecasts suggest extreme spikes near $200 ? Gas price: ?? $6.00 – $9.00+ per gallon MIGA Politics aside. It’s like I knew what I was talking about… weeks ago. So when is this all supposed to hit? Gas is around $4.00 here with some places $3.89. That’s regular 87. Pure gas about .75 more. May cargos are even higher in the futures markets. I would expect another price spike come May 1. Unless something happens between now and then which lets tankers get rolling. Plastic, lubricants, fertilizers, helium, etc. shortages are actively happening across the globe. My speculation is still in the next 7-10 days the shortages in the U.S. will become even worse. Mind you, it’s Tuesday for me right now. |
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Quoted: May cargos are even higher in the futures markets. I would expect another price spike come May 1. Unless something happens between now and then which lets tankers get rolling. Plastic, lubricants, fertilizers, helium, etc. shortages are actively happening across the globe. My speculation is still in the next 7-10 days the shortages in the U.S. will become even worse. Mind you, it’s Tuesday for me right now. Keep calling stuff as you see it, please. You offer valuable and unique insight into all thing oil related and it is appreciated. |
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Quoted: Keep calling stuff as you see it, please. You offer valuable and unique insight into all thing oil related and it is appreciated. Quoted: Quoted: May cargos are even higher in the futures markets. I would expect another price spike come May 1. Unless something happens between now and then which lets tankers get rolling. Plastic, lubricants, fertilizers, helium, etc. shortages are actively happening across the globe. My speculation is still in the next 7-10 days the shortages in the U.S. will become even worse. Mind you, it’s Tuesday for me right now. Keep calling stuff as you see it, please. You offer valuable and unique insight into all thing oil related and it is appreciated. There is still a big divide between posted price - the paper futures markets - and actual delivered price. The actual delivered price is currently between $30-50 a bbl higher than spot market prices from what I’ve been reading. Particularly Asian and pacific market countries paying a higher premium. So take spot price, then add that $30-40/bbl for immediately delivery premium. We are not seeing that in the paper market yet. But eventually the paper markets will start catching up to the physical reality as physical inventory starts being squeezed more and more. Right now “who has” crude is more valuable than “who’s producing” crude. Eventually “who’s producing” crude will catch up to “who has” crude. If that makes sense. |
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Quoted: As one of the SME in tariff shit (customs broker), I had people who have no knowledge of the industry shooting me down last year when the Trump tariffs were first introduced. After a while, you stop giving much info. Quoted: Quoted: I see you're newer here. He is a SME in this field. GD has this thing for not listening or shouting down SMEs and not paying attention or making up their own version/ideas. You can also see GD reading comprehension and critical thinking skills in this thread and the others "bUt MuH GAs PrICes aRe FiNE heRE" derp and not listening to the whole message and everything else he is talking about. GD can be a weird place, but you get used to it or ignore it. Hell, look at the TRT thread. All of our bad asses "Come and Tak'em" "Send bachelors" "Over my dead body types" yet most are scared of a fucking needle for giving themselves a shot. As one of the SME in tariff shit (customs broker), I had people who have no knowledge of the industry shooting me down last year when the Trump tariffs were first introduced. After a while, you stop giving much info. lol. SME. Perhaps about them spoiled whippersnappers wanting work from home. maybe. |
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Quoted: You have posted “I was right, hear me roar” in multiple threads. We get it. Is your self identity that invested in being right on the internet about something? I’m asking out of concern. Once or twice is one thing, constantly posting it is interesting. Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Will be interesting to see what the blockade of the Strait does to prices. It will be completely catastrophic especially if Iran retaliates by taking out the rest of the GCC oil and gas infrastructure. If the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, the impact on global oil supply is massive—one of the largest shocks possible. Here’s the realistic scale: ?? ?? Total oil supply disruption Normal flow through Hormuz: About ~20% of global oil supply Roughly 20 million barrels per day ?? Why it’s not a full 20% drop (important nuance) Even with a “closure”: 1) Alternative routes exist Saudi pipelines to the Red Sea UAE pipeline to Fujairah ?? These reduce losses somewhat Even a 10% disruption is: ?? The largest oil shock since the 1970s ?? Real-world effects already seen Oil prices spiking toward or above $100–$140+ Global Economic crisis inbound ?? Oil impact: ~$150 ? $200+ per barrel Some forecasts suggest extreme spikes near $200 ? Gas price: ?? $6.00 – $9.00+ per gallon MIGA Politics aside. It’s like I knew what I was talking about… weeks ago. You have posted “I was right, hear me roar” in multiple threads. We get it. Is your self identity that invested in being right on the internet about something? I’m asking out of concern. Once or twice is one thing, constantly posting it is interesting. This is why we can't have nice things.  Thanks again for the heads-up on all of this weeks ago, Foxtrot. A lot of us are in a much better position than we would have been without you sharing with us. |
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Quoted: lol. SME. Perhaps about them spoiled whippersnappers wanting work from home. maybe. Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: I see you're newer here. He is a SME in this field. GD has this thing for not listening or shouting down SMEs and not paying attention or making up their own version/ideas. You can also see GD reading comprehension and critical thinking skills in this thread and the others "bUt MuH GAs PrICes aRe FiNE heRE" derp and not listening to the whole message and everything else he is talking about. GD can be a weird place, but you get used to it or ignore it. Hell, look at the TRT thread. All of our bad asses "Come and Tak'em" "Send bachelors" "Over my dead body types" yet most are scared of a fucking needle for giving themselves a shot. As one of the SME in tariff shit (customs broker), I had people who have no knowledge of the industry shooting me down last year when the Trump tariffs were first introduced. After a while, you stop giving much info. lol. SME. Perhaps about them spoiled whippersnappers wanting work from home. maybe. A lot of us pick on Marie about the work from home stuff, and she takes it in stride. But, no doubt she's a subject matter expert on customs stuff, and we're lucky to have her input. |
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I don't know what to think about the nuclear aspects of Iran. I'm reasonably sure them having nukes isn't optimal. So, it's not a question of "is this war worth the higher cost of energy and plastics? " It's really "which is worse: Iran with nukes, or large increases in the cost of many parts of the economy?" |
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Quoted: As one of the SME in tariff shit (customs broker), I had people who have no knowledge of the industry shooting me down last year when the Trump tariffs were first introduced. After a while, you stop giving much info. Which is really sad to have any of the SMEs get to that point. One of the greatest things about this forum to me isn't the firearm tech forums, it's the knowledge shared by SMEs on all sorts of topics and breaking news/updates shared by members that are local to events as they happen here in GD. |