Leave earlier?  Empty fridge and scoot.

Once these things hit the Gulf Stream, they tend to nurse there and ride the current.  This whole left-turn into Central Fl is still something I'm not buying into.

That's not possible. Can't explain why but, it just isn't.

Based upon current forecast models, this is pretty much what we're expecting Hurricane Dorian to look like by Sunday (or earlier).  Major hurricane with an eye ... slowly creeping toward the coast over the very warm Gulf Stream.  

Treacherous FL Atlantic beaches this weekend. pic.twitter.com/ANupbcDZI7

Ryan Maue  (@RyanMaue) August 28, 2019

Nice graphic, click the date.

Man this storm sure is getting buff. All that warm  water is gonna feed that beast. Now becoming a cat 3 or 4 eventually is not good

Here you go, it even has it overlayed on Google maps here: http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/tracking.asp?storm=dorian&year=2019

interesting

noaa appears to have updated the 5 day forcast to have a major hurricane off the coast of florida, from a hurricane.
compare image with the one from chokey above.

that suggest they may be thinking further intensification than they were thinking before

Attached File

And some posters were poo pooing this.

Nature is scary, and unpredictable.

Your business insurance should cover the loss of income. You'll have to file financial statements for the time period from the previous year.

If you want to drop your keys off, I'll cover for you while you're gone. It's been decades since I've had a righteous college house party. I'll need you to sign a waiver for any damages.

On that same note, we were on vacation in NC when Irma was inbound and had to cut it short to head back to deal with securing the farm. If you remember the excavation cluster fuck and fuel shortage, image driving headlong into that. A jerry can full of fuel behind each seat, a mapped route thru every podunk town & back road as far from the interstates as possible, topping up the tank at every opportunity. It took something close to 16 hours to get home. Thankfully we had a truck fridge packed because there was no place open to eat, the route was surreal, ghost towns, no traffic.

I hate these late season hurricanes, they are always the worst.

wait a few more days.... you won't really know what the path is going to be fore at least 2 more days.

right now, it looks like a hook might occur, in the models and how the systems are setting up, but it will need a few days to firm up that probability.

make plans for a possible hit, though, at this time, though.

Avila ever check in from the Virgin Islands?

From the NHC 11AM update:

000
WTNT45 KNHC 281510 CCA
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number  17...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL052019
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

Corrected day 5 intensity forecast in table.

Satellite and radar images indicate that the cloud pattern has
become better organized during the past several hours. This was
confirmed by data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane currently
investigating Dorian, which reported a flight-level wind of 72 kt
and a peak SFMR value of 60 kt.  The estimated central pressure was
999 mb in the last fix.  On this basis the initial intensity has
been adjusted upward to 60 kt.  Only a slow strengthening is
anticipated today while Dorian is moving through the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands.  However, once the cyclone reaches the
western Atlantic well east of the Bahamas, it will encounter a
favorable environment of low shear and warm waters, resulting in a
more marked intensification. The NHC foreast is more aggressive than
the previous one, and brings Dorian to category 3 intensity by the
end of the period. This forecast very closely follows the intensity
consensus, the HCCA model, and the SHIPS guidance.

Fixes from the reconnaissance plane indicate that Dorian has been
moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 11 kt. The cyclone is
heading toward a weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge, and
this motion should continue for the next 2 to 3 days. However, after
that time, all global models build a robust ridge over the western
Atlantic, and this flow pattern should force Dorian to turn more
to the west-northwest toward Florida and the southeast coast of the
United States. All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend, a
powerful hurricane will be near the Florida or southeastern coast of
the United States. The new NHC track forecast is not significantly
different from the previous one, and it very closely follows the
multi-model consensus TVCA and the HCCA. Users are reminded not to
focus on the exact forecast track, as the average 5-day track error
is around 200 miles.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands, Culebra, and Vieques today. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in Puerto Rico today with hurricane conditions possible.

2. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands could produce flash flooding during the next
couple of days.  Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of
the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern Untied
States later this week and into early next week.

3. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds is
increasing in the central and northwestern Bahamas and along the
Florida east coast, although it is too soon to determine where these
hazards will occur. Residents in these areas should ensure that
they have their hurricane plan in place and not focus on the exact
forecast track of Dorian's center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 17.5N  64.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  29/0000Z 18.7N  65.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  29/1200Z 20.5N  67.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  30/0000Z 22.4N  68.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  30/1200Z 24.2N  69.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  31/1200Z 26.5N  74.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
96H  01/1200Z 27.7N  77.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  02/1200Z 28.6N  80.3W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

Got out this AM to fill some diesel cans and a couple of propane tanks. Luckily, there isn't much more that I need to do. However, I'll probably head out tomorrow in the AM again and pick up a few nice to haves.

What time is the next forecast?

Yup, gonna be a suck day here for sure.  I'm scheduled to fly from GNV at 2pm Monday.  I'm fairly certain if the winds are what they predict that GNV will close to traffic.

2PM Intermediate Advisory and 5PM for full update

5pm.

They update every 6 hours,  and I think every 3 when it gets closer to landfall.

Yeah, I'm expecting it to shift north. Luckily for us we're pretty well inland but it's still something I don't really want to go thru.

Thanks!

I'm in Gainesville, PM me if I can help

2pm (actually 1:50pm)

Similar plans here.  Top off on gas to be sure, shore up on extra nice haves, and then be ready to see what comes through on the west side. Thankfully in a more secure (higher) building than last year, so the real worry will be wind vice flooding. Still gonna plan on being without power for days and go from there.

Heading to Hilton Head for the long weekend (through Monday). Am I going to get wet?

Good that my family is going to be out of town this weekend.

Yeah, business insurance will cover it but, it's just more ass pain. I'm more worried about my home though. I'll call you if I need to and tell you the code to get you in.  Thanks!

I have a friend leaving Sunday for a cave diving class in northern FL. She thinks it will have “spun out” by the time she arrives and is not giving any consideration to damage, flooding, etc., the area might experience.

My dad is heading to Sanibel Island and will get there Saturday.  Hopefully the 3' elevation will keep his ankles out of the water.

Good chance we will both miss our flights.

Thanks! I will.

Based on where it's been and where it is, it does kinda say "carolinas."

I hope the Cape doesn’t get smacked too hard.

I bet this thing keeps moving north. Jacksonville/ Georgia beware.

Well my post from this morning was wrong. I thought it had another day or two of mediocrity before it got its act together. I figured it would go over PR and weaken quite a bit and take a day or more to re-assemble itself.

Well it's missing PR to the east. The dry air that has been hindering it since its formation is almost gone.  Shear is predicted to stay low. The sea surface temperatures are around 85 degrees. The depth of warm water is plenty to create a monster hurricane. It has plenty of time over these favorable conditions to become a real nightmare.

As I said before, I don't claim to be an expert but I've been watching these for many years now as I have a fascination with extreme weather. I really don't see anything in the next few days stopping this from being a major hurricane making landfall on the east coast. I am not nearly qualified to make a guess as to where it will strike. At this time it's anywhere from Miami to NC. Even that wide of a range could change. As in it could make it into the gulf for a second landfall.

Stay safe and stay informed.

As of 2pm EDT it is a hurricane.

Well now it's a hurricane party.

Prolly at Ginnie Springs.  That’s a good bit inland, however there’ll be a ton of rain and that might silt up the springs and caves...

Places are already out of water in my area.  Central Florida.  People are preparing sooner and sooner... I remember when we had those three hurricanes in one year people were stocking up hours before one arrived.

It's nice people are prepping sooner but it also makes it harder to find things last minute.

Thread title update time OP

Hurricane preps have already begun.

Besides land interaction I don't see anything right now the will cause this to "spin out", unless it makes a right hook and misses the east coast entirely. What will most likely happen is that it will go through eyewall replacement cycles. These are impossible to time or predict. It's when the eyewall constricts so much that it collapses while a much larger outer eyewall has formed around it. These tend to weaken a hurricane somewhat but they also increase the windfield size. Then that outer eyewall will tighten up and the cycle repeats if given enough time.

the local home depot already sold out of gas cans and the gas lines are getting long.

Currently, it has been upgraded to Cat 1, expected to intensify to Cat 3 and to come ashore near Titusville Sunday morning.

Been busy working on something in the garage.

Is something going on I should know about?

Woo hoo!

Just usual Florida stuff. What are you wrenching on?

Done!

2:00 PM AST Wed Aug 28
Location: 18.3°N 65.0°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

lol

If you have a shortwave radio with single side band you can listen to the HAM radio operator reports:

Hurricane HAM radio frequencies:  14.325.00 MHz (day) and 7.268.00 MHz (evening) - the net went active today at 10AM EST.

More here:

2017 Hurricane Frequencies

One of the bad scenarios has it moving along the coast of Florida and up the Georgia/South Carolina coast.  That could put hurricane force winds along a long stretch of land.

A good rule is always anticipate it can be (assume it will be) one cat higher by impact.

Everybody be safe on the south east coast.

In on this shit show. Water already gone at BJs, more delivery expected after 4pm.

I hope not.  If it does that me and everyone I know are dead.  We couldn't survive something like that unless we were really lucky.  And our kids would die too.