Hyperinflation or Deflation? - Page 3

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[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Hyperinflation or Deflation? (Page 3 of 3)

Posted: 5/2/2011 11:44:11 AM EST

[#1]

I bet we see inflation caused by design. As another poster said, inflation is good when you owe money.

Our leaders are just stupid enough to think that they can create an inflation bubble, reduce the debt, and then deflated the currency to where it should be.

We should never have gotten into the mess we are in now.

Posted: 5/2/2011 12:25:57 PM EST

[#2]

Quoted:
I bet we see inflation caused by design.

Inflation is defined as: An increase in the supply of money.
An increase in the general price level is the symptom of inflation.
An increase in the supply of money is always by design.

Posted: 5/2/2011 12:41:56 PM EST

[#3]

What I want to know is where do I get some of this money coming fresh off the press?

If banks aren't lending it out they must just be giving it away.

Posted: 5/2/2011 1:21:51 PM EST

[#4]

Quoted:
An increase in the supply of money is always by design.

inflation can happen witout the increase in the supply of money by design.
In the last days of South Vietnam, it was velocity that created inflation caused by panic.

Posted: 5/3/2011 3:34:56 PM EST

[#5]

Quoted:

Quoted:
blah blah blah

Man, I love your optimism, wish I could share it.

I see the game of chicken ending with a head on collision, everybody loses.

Hope for the best, and prepare for the worst.

My wife would laugh so hard she'd probably crack a rib if she heard someone describe me as an "optimist"

I am extremely pragmatic and pessimistic in life, and ALWAYS try to prepare for the worst. But, I also try to stay fairly informed on economics, finance and politics. I have a lot of colleagues and friends with PhDs in economics and finance, and I actually know a bunch of people who are quite involved in the thick of things (over the past month, I've had dinner with the head economist of a very large government agency, as well as one of the top economists at the SEC - just as an example). So I really don't see my view on things as being crazy optimistic, but rather fairly informed and pragmatic.

Plus, I'm not sure how increased taxes and military cuts translate to "optimism"

I don't like that at all, but think it's the sad reality of the compromises that will be necessary.

But, don't get me wrong - you'll note that my opinion is based on the assumption that the idiot politicians will eventually get their act together and make the tough decisions that need to be made ot solve/avert the debt crisis. While I think it is unlikely, it is ENTIRELY POSSIBLE that the idiots will continue to grandstand and play party politics (the analogy would be fiddling while Rome burns, I guess) and refuse to actually tackle the problem - and obviously that COULD put the whole mess into the ditch. So I am not saying it cannot go to shit - of course it can - I just find it highly unlikely.

From the standpoint of an American born in the 60's. your opinion of our political system does sound fantastically optimistic.

Meaningful spending cuts would require a quantum change in attitude, in every class and culture of our Nation. I can't picture a scenario that would allow Republicans the political power to tackle the Third Rail, and I don't see the Democrats as having the will to make tough financial or political choices.

Granted, the idea of GB and Cuba firing Government workers is pretty far-fetched as well.

Maybe the oligarchs will get scared enough that they will engineer a complete reversal. Here's to hoping you're right.

The R's had control of the House, the Senate and the Presidency from 2000-2006. They increased the deficit. I have as much faith in them as the D's when it comes to fiscal responsibility.

Posted: 5/3/2011 3:49:15 PM EST

[#6]

Quoted:

Quoted:

Not now, but its likely that it'll happen again in our lifetimes at least once or twice. Especially with the kind of people we have running our nation and banking system.

This is what I mean by making the wrong preperation for this coming currency collapse. Bonds are not the winning stratedgy in Hyperinflation.

Something that FOFOA(his blog) points out is that in Hyperinflation is that surviving Hyperinflation is like a bear attack. You dont have to outrun the bear, you have to outrun the other guy.

Cash, Savers, Bond Holders will all be killed.

So what do you suggest?

Precious Metals, beans and bullets, or a combination of both?

Of course he does. These "coming collapse" threads are as dumb s the OP.

Inflation is happening and will continue, but "hyperinflation" (nice Alex Jones catchword)... Not happening. We aren't and we will never be the Weimar Republik.

Well, I don't know if we'll ever be the Weimar Republik either.........but these idiots are spending more money than a drunken sailor. You gotta admit that.

And they PASSED one of the LARGEST entitltment programs in American history during the midst of this crisis.

Agreed!

Posted: 5/3/2011 3:53:24 PM EST

[#7]

Boy, I really broke you're vagina, didn't I? Get over it. You never stop with this Alex Jones garbage. How many hours a day do you spend on GodLikeProductions?

"Hyperinflation" is something being hawked by a select few, mostly thoughtless people. Maybe when your done predicting the end of times with our economy, you can point me to that secret underground lair in Colorado... You know, under that airport.

The US didn't even have any real currency during the Revolutionary War, we weren't even a country yet. But excellent citing of examples

Quoted:

past hyperinflations

BelarusBelarus 1994-2002.

BoliviaBolivia 1984 and 1986.

Bosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia in 1993

BrazilFrom 1986-1994,

BulgariaIn 1996,

ChinaAs the first user of fiat currency, China has had an early history of troubles caused by hyperinflation. The Yuan Dynasty printed huge amounts of fiat paper money to fund their wars, and the resulting hyperinflation, coupled with other factors, led to its demise at the hands of a revolution.

The Republic of China 1948-49.

Free City of Danzig 1923.

Georgia 1994.

Germany 1923.

Greece 1944

Hungary, 1922-1924

Hungary 1945 and July 1946

Israel 1983 and1984

KrajinaKrajina 1993

MexicoIn 1982

Nicaragua 1987-1990

Peru 1988-1990

Philippines 1944

Poland, 1921-1924

Poland, 1989-1991

Republika Srpska 1993.

Romania 1990s.

Russian FederationBetween 1921 and 1922

USSR 1992

Taiwan 1940s

Ukrainian 1992 and 1996

United States During the Revolutionary War,

United States During the U.S. Civil War, between January 1861 and April 1865

Yugoslav 1993 to 1994

Zaire 1989 and 1996

Zimbabwe 2008 peak

there are a lot more examples ofcourse including currency revaluations not included here

but ofcourse per our brilliant poster SecurityForceMember Alex Jones coined the term.

Posted: 5/3/2011 3:56:17 PM EST

[#8]

You just cannot say with a straight face, knowing print well over 1 trillion dollars (QE1 and QE2) and say with a straight face, that the economy is heading towards anything but hyperinflation.

Posted: 5/3/2011 4:08:37 PM EST

[#9]

Quoted:

Boy, I really broke you're vagina, didn't I? Get over it. You never stop with this Alex Jones garbage. How many hours a day do you spend on GodLikeProductions?

"Hyperinflation" is something being hawked by a select few, mostly thoughtless people. Maybe when your done predicting the end of times with our economy, you can point me to that secret underground lair in Colorado... You know, under that airport.

The US didn't even have any real currency during the Revolutionary War, we weren't even a country yet. But excellent citing of examples

You grew up in a lead painted house didn't you?

Posted: 5/3/2011 4:14:00 PM EST

[#10]

Quoted:
You can't have deflation if you keep printing money.

You can have deflation AND hyperinflation at the same time.

You will get deflation in the lower economic areas where people have to sell their personal items to pay for necessities that are rising in cost quickly.

Non-necessary items = deflate

Necessities = Inflate.

Posted: 5/3/2011 6:38:07 PM EST

[#11]

Quoted:

Deflation.

Hyperinflation requires the wholesale literal printing/creation of money. We aren't doing that... we're monetizing debt. Worst case, we can't service that debt and default on it, the resulting destruction of credit is a deflationary event, not inflationary.

The Fed can create money, but cannot force it into circulation. That's why QE I/II/III isn't doing much... the newly-created money is there, but nobody is borrowing and spending it. And we've already shown that "dropping money from helicopters" cannot cure a deflation cycle.

We've been trying to inflate a balloon with a hole in it. When we stop huffing and puffing, the balloon will contract, not expand and explode.

You're correct.

We're now seeing commodities prices going down as well as the dollar. This doesn't look good for pro inflation case.

Posted: 5/3/2011 6:40:37 PM EST

[#12]

Quoted:

Quoted:

An increase in the supply of money is always by design.

inflation can happen witout the increase in the supply of money by design.

In the last days of South Vietnam, it was velocity that created inflation caused by panic.

Inflation/hyper inflation happens when the public lose faith in the currency. At the end of the day the question will be, is the government going to back the currency they printed.

Posted: 5/5/2011 2:56:11 PM EST

[#13]

QE3 was already baked in, but now with the "Commodity Bubble" popper (I laugh cryingly while saying this) has been popped, Bernanke can point and say there is no inflation and get QE3 approved.

We are seriously f***ed people.

Posted: 5/5/2011 3:54:32 PM EST

[#14]

Quoted:
You will see rapid inflation on small items that are in high demand and have high consumption i.e. food products and fuel.
Large items such as vacation homes, boats, and motor homes will hugely deflate because few will have the money to buy them.

+1 spot on, things you own go down, things you need go up