Anyone that ever thought Ukraine would be able to beat Russia (if it was truly determined), is a god damn fool.

Russia has a ton of people, Cold War stockpiles to burn up, and plenty of oil and gas to export to places like China that have an ever-increasing demand for it.

The only side being weakened by this is NATO.

Don't fool yourself.

I have to admit, I've been watching too much Russia 1 translations. All I see is them saying is they will inevitably destroy the existence of anything called Ukraine, they absolutely must, completely. From that perspective, what you're offering looks very minimal, and Russia would need to be really weak to accept those terms. I don't know how Putin could sell what you're describing as a win when his people are openly calling for something the rest of the world would say is genocide. State TV says what they're told, so it would be a real shock for them to suddenly speak of negotiations and settlement as a success.

But all the other places Russia entered .ZFG.  Ukraine = let's risk WW3 and nuclear war cuz ???

This has more to do with our own grafting politicians that have $$$ in Ukraine than anything else, I think.

It will only exist long enough for the deep state to find a less insecure yet just as corrupt state to run their ops out of.

I'd say no.  I 1000% support massive investment in military defense spending on material and tech advancements.

Between China and Russia, we can't afford to lose our superiority due to apathy and hands wringing.  

If anything, this Ukraine situation should be a wake-up call on the destruction of not keeping military spending at a reasonable level to produce material and tech advantages.

From the things I've seen posted by R0N, FlyNavy, Daemon and others, I would say we lost our superiority before Feb 2022. We didn't have enough munitions or capacity to build them when Biden took office. We're a paper tiger that could look really good for about 4-6 weeks of major combat and after that we'd be screwed. Ukraine totally exposed how incredibly empty US defense capacity is. It's alarming. Doesn't seem like we get very much for three-quarter TRILLION a year in "defense" spending.

You are right that Russia has to want to negotiate, but they simply can't maneuver either regardless of supplies or not.  Ukraine has enough organic capability to slow that down enough to make it not worth it.  Russia is not really set up as a robust and effective tactical maneuver force and they know it.

They aren't rolling into Poland or the Baltics, they aren't even crossing the Dniper.  Their methodology to conduct offensive operations is much different.

Might makes right.

Poland of WWII and Ukraine of 2023 is simply an invalid comparison.

Poland was defeated in a matter of days.

Until Ukraine is pacified Ukrainians will continue to be killed and their country turned to rubble.

There is no realistic pathway to even electing a new speaker.

Potential "new speakers" are against more aid to Ukraine.

The Biden administration disagrees with you.

Deputy Defense Department press secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters Tuesday that the administration has “enough funding authorities to meet Ukraine’s battlefield needs for just a little bit longer, but we need Congress to act to ensure there is no disruption in our support, especially as the department seeks to replenish our stocks.”

I can come up with more than 5 off the top of my head. And trust me, the Ukebros are doing far more damage to Ukraine sentiment on this site than any cabal of shadowy Russian hackers lol.

But mostly my beef is that the demand for pro-Russia greatly exceeds supply around here.

I dislike Russia. I dislike Ukraine. But what we all really hate is watching a chunk of our personal earnings every day disappearing to graft and ending up lining the pockets of a bunch of Eastern European crooks.... errrr, funding a war in Eastern Europe against the USSR oh wait I mean Russia. Nah. Our own situation here is grossly out of hand and instead of unfucking ourselves we're shipping billions of greenbacks to some endless pit and enriching a bunch of shitstain pols along the way for good measure.

The Ukebros desperately trying to ruin this forum too is just the cherry on top

And it was a small guerrilla agitation by the Contras done for 10s of millions per year in 'humanitarian' aid for a few years, a percentage cut of the Bush/ Clinton/ Cartel cocaine smuggling operation and the Iran F14 parts sting, and it was then shut down.
This is funding and salarying an entire corrupt government, with numerous middlemen, and supporting the war a Ukrainian population is having to pay for in blood in keeping oligarchs fat and happy. To the tune of more than 100 Billion less than 2 years in.

Especially after Afghanistan.

It was a month and was getting attacked by both Germany and Russia.

It is the magical label of numerous former and current of the US military as Russian puppets because they don't like to be gaslighted by people whose information is in effect foreign IO.

As I said, a matter of days.

Unlike Ukraine.

I hear you on all that, except one thing. Ukraine has nothing to do with all the fucked-up in DC. If the Ukraine thing didn't exist, everything would still be exactly as messed up as it is now, the inflation would be just as bad, the dollar would still be teetering on the brink of a crash, the Congress would still be as dysfunctional. The southern border would still be overrun. Nothing would be any different at all. Except the deficit would be about 5% lower. BFD. Picking this hill as the number one target seems misguided, and it presumes that the USA can't handle walking and chewing gum at the same time. Which maybe it actually can't anymore. I thought we could, but I find new depths all the time.

Everybody has their own ideas and opinions.

That is a very bad thing, given that our own country is in long-term decline. As in my post right above, that is happening regardless of what we do on Ukraine. Democrats are deliberately accelerating the decline, and Republicans are too clueless to actually organize against it. All great powers fall, historically. It appears to be our turn. I don't see the Republicans getting their shit together as long as Trump is still on the scene, so on we go. I'd love to be wrong, but I don't see it.

I don't think they're ready to accept the limits you ascribe to them. As long as they believe that can still achieve their aims through battle, battle continues. They have to believe they can't win, and be willing to accept negotiations. IMO, there's a lot a blood to spill before they reach that point. I'm also not convinced that Russia thinks there is such a thing as "not worth it." They're spending lives at a rate not seen in the world since the Korean War.

Desire is one thing. The ability to execute that desire organically is another.

Analysis on the probability of success is happening on our end. Our willingness to support is absolutely going to taper off as that probability shrinks, which is going to make that decision for them.

Two points. There may be a gap between the political objectives in the Kremlin, and the capability of the MoD. Politically, they still seem fully committed to the eradication of the Ukrainian state. Militarily, they can't do it. Pacifying a large country where the population all hate them, along with the limits you describe of their warfighting capability along that large front would seem to indicate that the political objective is not possible. That gap has to be resolved in Moscow, and I'd say that too is a prerequisite for even starting negotiating an end.

Second, there's a chicken and egg problem. US military aid is highly determinative of Ukrainian military success. Their probability of success is dependent on that foreign military aid. High aid = high success. To date, they haven't received a high level of aid - at least, relative to the scale of the conflict. It's entirely possible that the analysis says the amount of aid required is just too damn high, which has obvious implications - for them, as well as for our own frightful lack of capacity.

Here's my completely uninformed speculation. If military aid starts to falter, putting limits on Ukrainian field capability, Ukraine has to go to the table and beg for anything Russia is willing to let them keep. If aid is continued, Moscow will be forced to resolve that gap between their political aims and their military capability, so they'll have to go to the table. The first option rewards Russian aggression and gives them a clear public victory (even if it's not 100% of their original goals). The second option forces a Russian acknowledgement of not-victory at some level.

I don't know where you got this from.  They have received an extremely substantial amount of aid.  There are only a handful of things available that they have actually not received.

What have we not sent that would realistically change the face of this conflict?

Hern dropped out so it’s Jordan and Scalise left but not sure when a speaker will finally be decided then that speaker would likely be caught up in the November 17 CR so I’m wondering about timelines given 2024 campaign mode will be kicking in soon. Jordan will be more averse than McCarthy and I’m not sure Scalise would put the rumored $60 to 90 billion up for vote if he gets selected https://www.ft.com/content/49dea011-2824-4dd3-9341-5942bdec8211
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https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna119369
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US armor wasn't provided until when? Mid 2023? And still no tanks. When did they get 777 and M109? And they are still flying the scant handful of old Soviet air frames they started the war with. They should have surplus UH60s and F16s. Providing all these things, and more important, TIMELY, would have made a significant difference, IMO. You have far more military knowledge than I, so correct me where I'm wrong. All the armor that was delivered and promised in 2023 could have been delivered in 2022. The difference it would have made then, to have a couple hundred surplus Bradleys, the Strykers, all the old M113s, and even that small number of Abrams... In summer and fall or 2022, that equipment would have made a huge difference, before the Surovikin line even was made. And the artillery: 18 M109s were delivered in spring of 2023. M777s started coming in spring 2022, a total of 180 according to Wikipedia's list. That's less than 200 155mm artillery pieces for a line that is over 600KM long. I'm sure there are lots more surplus M109s floating around that could have been sent.

My opinion is that the window for Ukraine to achieve a complete military victory on the field has closed, because Russia was given six months to dig in, unmolested. Unmolested due to a deficiency of air, rocket, and artillery attack capability. Six months, because Ukraine lacked offensive armor support to push forward. I believe the opportunity was there, but Ukraine lacked the ability to exploit it. Now that the lines have hardened substantially, overcoming them requires far more power than what they have even now, or have been promised. Maybe 100 F16s next year will get them somewhere. Ruskibros will say "see, we told you Ukraine was a loser and could never win," but the reality is they were never given the resources they needed to fight.

I mostly agree with your overall assessment, that at some point both sides will realize they can't achieve their goals so they should stop fighting and settle. The outcome will be far better for Russia, far worse for Ukraine, Europe, and the US. We didn't send them what they needed at the beginning when it could have made the biggest difference. We could have achieved our stated goal, but only if we had acted quickly and aggressively (in supplies, not actual military engagement). Now, nobody will achieve their goals. Ukraine won't be whole, Russia won't have wiped out a country they say has no right to exist outside of Moscow's rule, the US failed to save someone they declared they would support "as long as it takes."

And what about Round 2? This war will start again, unless Ukraine is admitted to NATO or develops their own nukes. Even if both sides can't achieve their goals now, is there any chance either side will give up on those goals, long term? Maybe if Putin and his entire cadre are removed from power, that's possible. That's the only real chance for peace.

Ok, you seem to think this was a unilateral US effort, which it wasn't.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answering-call-heavy-weaponry-supplied.html,https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answering-call-heavy-weaponry-supplied.html

Who would fly and maintain the UH60's and F16's?  They didn't have anyone in 2022 to do it, and still don't.

A shitload of armor was delivered in 2022. The western stuff was not because they didn't even have training or infrastructure to support it, nor had we even manufactured their tanks yet.

200 artillery pieces on the entire FLOT? Where did you come up with this?
The US divested operational M777's that belonged to national guard units to be replaced by HIMARs that aren't even built yet.  That's also just 200 modern artillery pieces from ONE COUNTRY, which is a huge contribution. They actually got upwards of 600 artillery pieces overall on top of the 1200 or so they already had, so let's inject some reality onto the equation here. It's more like 1800.

Pushing some of the 2023 stuff back several months to 2022 would not have moved the needle significantly, the lines would possibly have been drawn a few miles different but the outcome would be the same. They still wouldn't have been able to use most of it.

There seems to be a common misconception of timelines on this board, as in how long it would take to do things like set up a country to be able to use and maintain an Abrams or Bradley, how to position and triage western air defense, etc. It is absolutely not as simple as throwing the stuff on C17's and offloading at APOD of choice.  When the news says a contract was funded for X munition, we're not talking delivery next fiscal quarter, we're talking 2-3 YEARS.




That is absolutely not the reality.  Russia chose a strategy that capitalized on capability gaps within the west with shortfalls in ADA and deep fires. The maneuver war has been a forcing function but not the primary tool.

Ukraine refused to acknowledge this until it was too late, and the west still hasn't.  Shit, the Ukraine "experts" on this board still haven't.




What about it? Sounds like Europe had better get their shit together and provide some deterrence combined with resolve.

Spoiler alert, they haven't.

Any rational person (not just the "Ruskibros") would say that if we had to provide them the resources to win--they could never win.

That's why most of us said this was a lost cause.

We don't owe them anything and cannot "provide" them enough "resources" to win.

We shouldn't be involved.

None of our damned business.

If Putin were removed it is likely that his successor would be even more hard line and dangerous.

Daemon, it looks like your assessment of capability in the field is shared by a field expert on the other side. See what Girkin says about the state of things. FYI, the election he refers to is the Russian election for president scheduled for March '24.







Girkin has been on record for a long time saying that Russia was failing to give the campaign the full effort needed in order to win, ie full national mobilization. His talk about internal collapse as a possibility has the sound of DOOM! prognosticators here as well. Meaning, not Russian doomsayers, but our own GD folks talking about a collapse in the US. The thing about that talk, eventually somebody is going to be right, but the timing & actual causes/effects will likely be different than they say.

It isn't just shared by him or me. It's overtly visible at this point to all.

The Ukrainian counter offense is effectively over. Now we get to grab a snickers and drop a couple thousand more air defense interceptors we don't have while waiting to see what happens in the spring.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/09/israel-seeks-weapons-missiles-artillery-from-us-00120587
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https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna119516

The CURRENT THING has changed. There's no way support continues as before, especially if Israel is asking for the exact same things.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-army-chief-says-congress-must-act-ensure-arms-both-israel-ukraine-2023-10-09/
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Of one thing we can be sure...........the Corporations of War that support the Military Industrial Complex are dancing with joy.

They are getting even richer selling their weapons.

Workers making overtime pay, no doubt.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/10/12/steve-scalise-does-not-appear-to-have-votes-to-become-speaker-as-gop-remains-divided.html

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4260581-mccaul-jordan-israel-ukraine-aid/amp/
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Is something going on in Ukraine?

Zelensky gotta get to Israel so Ukraine isn't dropping from the news cycle.

Do you get mad about gun makers turning a fair profit selling AR15s too?

Probably not. It would require honesty.

Ukraine isn't going to be "pacified". That Russian ship sailed (and it got sunk in the black sea) and will never come back.

It took both Germany and the USSR fighting against Poland along for 35 days to conquer it, hardly a "matter of days". The two are a very valid comparison. The Russian gov expected Ukraine to fall in a few days and tailored their entire force planning around that, even the propaganda and declarations of victory.

Jordan providing aid to Ukraine and Israel along with being supported by Trump has my vote.

Exactly. It's not a binary choice between helping Ukraine or saving our country. The fuckers in charge are determined to destroy America and Ukraine has zero to do with that. If I could turn back time and put Trump or any other America loving Republican into the WH in 2020 I would (even at the expense of Ukraine) but that train has left the station. If Ukraine sent back every penny of US aid, it would be used to cut holes in the border wall, process illegals faster, buy more plane tickets for them, and hand out more aid to Hamas/Palestine or maybe for "earthquake relief" for the Taliban.

Of all the bullshit we waste money on, helping Ukraine defend themselves against OUR enemy is the best investment since the Louisiana Purchase. All the Russian gear (and Russian pride, strength, and ambitions of empires) smoldering in Ukraine would have ended up killing Americans (or our allies) eventually. It would have been used in Europe or sold off to Iran, Syria, or wherever.

Most likely a deal has been signed with China over Taiwan. If anyone thinks that Xiden will go balls deep defending them (using 30 year old ATACMS, Stingers, and 155mm shells) is stupid.

Excellent analysis.

*wait, you mean the 31 Abrams that arrived (eventually one day) is not huge?  

We are stringing Ukraine along for some nefarious reason...helping them defend themselves but kneecapping their offensive efforts.

They really needed Abrams (300 at least) F16's (maybe 100) and ATACMS to succeed in retaking their territory. They/we have been saying this for over a year now and we/they are still waiting.  

We have sent them small arms, arty, Patriots, HMMV's and M113's all specifically to be of very limited use offensively.

100% Both Russia (in Feb-March) and Ukraine lost this war in 2022. We could have saved Ukraine with the old junk we have rotting out in the desert. 300 Abrams and ATACMS in the fall/winter of 2022 would have made the difference.

But I will add that Russia comes out ahead. They took territory by force and can say (lie) they stood up against all of NATO and won. And now prepare for round II...