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8/20/2020 3:13:38 PM EDT
[#1]
If that track prediction holds, it will go right over top of me.
8/20/2020 3:17:44 PM EDT
[#2]
OMG! Yawn.
8/20/2020 3:20:06 PM EDT
[#3]
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Quoted:



You should also get a break on your insurance for having a “secondary water barrier”
View Quote


Yep. Somehow my HO insurance is about $1400 per year, even after Michael. According to the declarations my rate is over $4k before they start deducting for upgrades.
8/20/2020 3:21:33 PM EDT
[#4]
I'll wait it out like normal - in my camper down by the river...
8/20/2020 3:22:20 PM EDT
[#5]
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Imagine getting them when you’ve already made the decision to stay and your 75YO MIL with dementia is at your house.
View Quote


Yeah. I just remember the weather guy at channel 7 starting to tear up around 10 PM when he realized what was about to go down.
When we came back to town Friday AM by brother and I brought all of the water and gas we could get our hands on.
Stopped by the house and took all of the the food to our priests, they needed way moire than we did.
8/20/2020 3:23:42 PM EDT
[#6]
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Is that the Port St Joe/ Mexico beach area?
View Quote


My eyeball says Apalachicola, the real fucking will happen in the Big Bend. Really shallow and nowhere for the storm surge to go except inland.
8/20/2020 3:24:23 PM EDT
[#7]
We have a rental on the Redneck Rivera. We'll be going down on Tuesday weather or not.

This will be the third time vacation has lined up with a tropical storm or hurricane. We even moved up a month to try and avoid it.

Where is that cat picture - "I should figure out a way to profit from this affliction."
8/20/2020 3:25:47 PM EDT
[#8]
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We have a rental on the Redneck Rivera. We'll be going down on Tuesday weather or not.

This will be the third time vacation has lined up with a tropical storm or hurricane. We even moved up a month to try and avoid it.

Where is that cat picture - "I should figure out a way to profit from this affliction."
View Quote


If the current track holds it will be east and the weather won't be too bad. They seem to get tracks more correct than intensity, but it's all a guess this far out.
8/20/2020 3:26:40 PM EDT
[#9]
Could you imagine if a category 5 hurricane hit Florida right now?  Can you even imagine how many Covid 19 deaths it would cause?
8/20/2020 3:28:44 PM EDT
[#10]
Well fuck, just spent over $2,000 to rescreen my pool area, hope this thing stays South, I'm in central Florida.
8/20/2020 3:44:05 PM EDT
[#11]
...
8/20/2020 4:07:38 PM EDT
[#12]
whether it hits south florida is kind of up in the air still.

there is a high over the west atlantic, and it's still kind of uncertain how strong it is or how far west it pushes. if it is strong enough, the system will stay off shore

the currently is a lot of wind shear over the the area north of the dominican republic and cuba, so that should help keep the intensity from getting high very quickly

the panhandle area, to new orleans, however, should be watching things carefully, and get ready for a possible hit from a strong hurricane

Attached File
8/20/2020 4:12:27 PM EDT
[#13]
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I dunno.  I'm West Central (east of Tampa).
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That's where I'm at.
8/20/2020 4:23:00 PM EDT
[#14]
Meh, if it looks bad I will hit the Publix liqour store the afternoon of the 23rd. Otherwise life goes on as always.
8/20/2020 4:27:42 PM EDT
[#15]
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I'll bring in the lawn furniture when it's a couple hours out.

Until then, I'll get on with my life.
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Got hit by 4 while I lived in S FL.  I fled the scene of the crime.  Maybe they have gotten better but anything over 3 days out is like pissing in the wind especially on strenght.  After that it gets a bit more accurate.
8/20/2020 4:33:26 PM EDT
[#16]
As if TD-13 wasn't enough, look what showed up:


Things could get interesting along the Gulf Coast about Wednesday.
8/20/2020 4:33:44 PM EDT
[#17]
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Sweet

Now another week of panic
View Quote


Few who have lived in FL for at least a couple of years are panicking.  It’s a storm that will likely become a hurricane and likely hit south FL.  Same as most years.
8/20/2020 4:50:24 PM EDT
[#18]
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I dunno.  I'm West Central (east of Tampa).
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A Polk County boy?  I can just see you standing there in nothing but rubber boots, a bucket of Crisco and a smile waiting for that storm.

Said with all sincerity.  Y'all are good folks out there.
8/20/2020 4:59:53 PM EDT
[#19]
NOAA is en route to 98L. The update later tonight will be interesting.

8/20/2020 5:02:11 PM EDT
[#20]
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As if TD-13 wasn't enough, look what showed up:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL142020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/173426_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Things could get interesting along the Gulf Coast about Wednesday.
View Quote



Yeah right through my neck of the woods. Guess its time to get shit together.
8/20/2020 5:14:43 PM EDT
[#21]
Interesting, the wife and I are going to the Keys on the 28th.
8/20/2020 5:20:13 PM EDT
[#22]
Have we ever had 2 hurricanes make landfall at about the same time? That seems like it could be a shit show.


I lived in Florida a few years. I lost a house in port orange 2x in 10 months to flooding and storms so I get the concern.
8/20/2020 5:28:08 PM EDT
[#23]
We bought a home in SWF in December 2016, just in time to take a direct hit by IRMA in September.  My insurance settlement was awesome (Frontline Insurance).  I took the settlement plus some more $$ and put a standing seam roof, impact glass, hurricane shutter on the lanai, etc.  The only thing I'm missing is a whole house generator, but we're part timers down here, so bugging out is an option.  I'm sitting down here right now, so if it gets "real" I'll go to a friend's house - he has the whole house Generac.
8/20/2020 5:29:07 PM EDT
[#24]
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I've noticed most of the models skew projected storm tracks that far out with a northern bias. The tracks are adjusted more south and westward daily as the storms get more organized and approach landfall. This one may wind up in the gulf and really get cranked up, worth keeping an eye on it.
View Quote

That's my concern
8/20/2020 5:29:53 PM EDT
[#25]
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Quoted:
We bought a home in SWF in December 2016, just in time to take a direct hit by IRMA in September.  My insurance settlement was awesome (Frontline Insurance).  I took the settlement plus some more $$ and put a standing seam roof, impact glass, hurricane shutter on the lanai, etc.  The only thing I'm missing is a whole house generator, but we're part timers down here, so bugging out is an option.  I'm sitting down here right now, so if it gets "real" I'll go to a friend's house - he has the whole house Generac.
View Quote



In before someone accuses you of being subsidized by the rest of the country
8/20/2020 5:30:29 PM EDT
[#26]
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That's my concern
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Quoted:
I've noticed most of the models skew projected storm tracks that far out with a northern bias. The tracks are adjusted more south and westward daily as the storms get more organized and approach landfall. This one may wind up in the gulf and really get cranked up, worth keeping an eye on it.

That's my concern



The last storm shifted east at virtually every update
8/20/2020 5:32:17 PM EDT
[#27]
@BlackFox can’t catch a break.  I think he just rode out the one in the Bahamas and is back home now with another one bearing down on him.
8/20/2020 5:35:44 PM EDT
[#28]
Will Shepard Smith's contract allow him to go to work for The Weather Channel?

You hurricane doomers deserve him.
8/20/2020 5:37:54 PM EDT
[#29]
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@BlackFox can’t catch a break.  I think he just rode out the one in the Bahamas and is back home now with another one bearing down on him.
View Quote


We rode out the last one 11nm northeast of the eye.  That was fun!  We just fled back to Sanibel Island in SWFL, and really didn't want to do it again so soon.  



8/20/2020 5:58:37 PM EDT
[#30]
It ain't real until Frankie MacDonald reports in.  

God bless that guy.  I admire his enthusiasm and concern for others.
8/20/2020 6:00:09 PM EDT
[#31]
I’m not too concerned at this point. The new house (2 years old) has roll down shutters, Generac installed last year and a great elevation plus the new location is well out of flood zone.
8/20/2020 6:01:23 PM EDT
[#32]
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We rode out the last one 11nm northeast of the eye.  That was fun!  We just fled back to Sanibel Island in SWFL, and really didn't want to do it again so soon.  

https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/4267/3F760639-774C-496F-A8BB-31B097FB04A2-1528690.jpg

https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/4267/EFCFDD27-3BB0-4E61-B5DD-83BF871600C3-1527848.jpg
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Fingers crossed for ya!

You could bring that bad boy up here to Destin.  All the boats go into the “ditch” (ICW) between Choctawhatchee bay and St Andrews bay when the storms come. Some of the banks are 40’+ high.
8/20/2020 6:01:25 PM EDT
[#33]

FL Arfcommers be like:  "Hurricane? AWESOME! Fire up a Zello channel and prepare the AAR template!!!!"
8/20/2020 6:02:38 PM EDT
[#34]
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Personally I would wait until Frankie McDonald uploads a video on it. Then I would worry.
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Lots o FRAIN!
8/20/2020 6:19:04 PM EDT
[#35]
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Quoted:



Fingers crossed for ya!

You could bring that bad boy up here to Destin.  All the boats go into the “ditch” (ICW) between Choctawhatchee bay and St Andrews bay when the storms come. Some of the banks are 40’+ high.
View Quote


My new marina hasn't been dredged yet, but I'm not above driving Skyline up to the oxbow and just ruining my props pushing her in - and then tying off to trees on both sides.  Let's hope that's not needed....
8/20/2020 6:33:20 PM EDT
[#36]
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I had my roof replaced in 2010 or so. I paid an extra $100 to have peel n stick used instead of paper. Fast forward to 2018 and Hurricane Michael...no water in the house thru the roof in Cat 4 conditions. My adjuster said he was really happy to see the peel n stick under the shingles when he drove up.

@luscioman
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I am in the middle of putting a new metal roof on and currently only have paper up there.  Not a good feeling going into the weekend.



You should be using peel n stick


I had my roof replaced in 2010 or so. I paid an extra $100 to have peel n stick used instead of paper. Fast forward to 2018 and Hurricane Michael...no water in the house thru the roof in Cat 4 conditions. My adjuster said he was really happy to see the peel n stick under the shingles when he drove up.

@luscioman


Same as Zip sheating?
8/20/2020 10:27:06 PM EDT
[#37]
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Few who have lived in FL for at least a couple of years are panicking.  It’s a storm that will likely become a hurricane and likely hit south FL.  Same as most years.
View Quote


I've lived here 54 yrs. and I'm panicking. Not for myself, I'm headed to MT for 21 days tomorrow. But that track and the hot surface temp of the Gulf looks very perilous for PC-Apalachicola area.  I've got staff at one of my facilities in Panama City that are still displaced after Hurricane Michael, 22 mos later.  We don't need that storm to cross or skirt the peninsula and wind up in the Gulf and strengthen into another monster.  
8/20/2020 10:29:34 PM EDT
[#38]
Looks like Daytona is catching a break this time.
8/20/2020 10:38:22 PM EDT
[#39]
...
8/21/2020 3:11:01 AM EDT
[#40]
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Looks like Daytona is catching a break this time.
View Quote

The HWRF shifted South since this morning. Now it has it over Key West Monday afternoon and then into the Gulf. Though the two models I watch are the GFS and the EURO. Both of those are still pretty bearish on the system.
8/21/2020 4:11:52 AM EDT
[#41]
Quote History
Quoted:


FL Arfcommers be like:  "Hurricane? AWESOME! Fire up a Zello channel and prepare the AAR template!!!!"
View Quote
LOL

More defending my shit from shitbags who didn't prep

8/21/2020 5:57:11 AM EDT
[#42]
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LOL, no, not that far east.   Hillsborough County.
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Are you a carney in Gibsonton?
8/21/2020 6:40:28 AM EDT
[#43]
This crazy year wouldn’t be complete without a couple hurricanes.
8/21/2020 6:41:56 AM EDT
[#44]
Dtap
8/21/2020 6:44:50 AM EDT
[#45]
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Quoted:


My new marina hasn't been dredged yet, but I'm not above driving Skyline up to the oxbow and just ruining my props pushing her in - and then tying off to trees on both sides.  Let's hope that's not needed....
View Quote



Can’t tell if serious?    Isn’t the storm like 4 days from
Florida?
8/21/2020 6:49:01 AM EDT
[#46]
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CoronaCane (TM)
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8/21/2020 6:52:45 AM EDT
[#47]
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LOL

More defending my shit from shitbags who didn't prep

https://i.ibb.co/520j7z3/20181013-191732.jpg
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that's part of my AAR template.  

Isn't it part of yours?  It's your funeral...

8/21/2020 7:38:21 AM EDT
[#48]
my son leaves for combined Air Force BMT/Tech School at Kessler AFB on the 25th. they changed his orders this week from Lackland to Kessler. thats going to be a stiff gulf breeze.



I see his life will be interesting on day one.
8/21/2020 7:52:20 AM EDT
[#49]
So 2 hurricanes/storms at once?
8/21/2020 7:53:33 AM EDT
[#50]
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I've lived here 54 yrs. and I'm panicking. Not for myself, I'm headed to MT for 21 days tomorrow. But that track and the hot surface temp of the Gulf looks very perilous for PC-Apalachicola area.  I've got staff at one of my facilities in Panama City that are still displaced after Hurricane Michael, 22 mos later.  We don't need that storm to cross or skirt the peninsula and wind up in the Gulf and strengthen into another monster.  
View Quote


This. Lots of folks still "getting by"...

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