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Link Posted: 9/30/2022 11:09:07 PM EDT
[#1]
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Quoted:



If you want to have a discussion, then have. Stop with your nonsense about "liberals" this and that though. It weakens your point as I can assure you, we are not liberals.

You speak in absolutes, yet your "proof" is something Biden said 7 months ago. It's odd that a so-called conservative trusts Biden's word so much. Are you sure YOU'RE not the liberal?
View Quote


From the info that's out there, his "proof" is as substantial as yours.
Nobody knows with any certainty what happened and who did it.
Link Posted: 9/30/2022 11:15:47 PM EDT
[#2]
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Quoted:


From the info that's out there, his "proof" is as substantial as yours.
Nobody knows with any certainty what happened and who did it.
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Quoted:
Quoted:



If you want to have a discussion, then have. Stop with your nonsense about "liberals" this and that though. It weakens your point as I can assure you, we are not liberals.

You speak in absolutes, yet your "proof" is something Biden said 7 months ago. It's odd that a so-called conservative trusts Biden's word so much. Are you sure YOU'RE not the liberal?


From the info that's out there, his "proof" is as substantial as yours.
Nobody knows with any certainty what happened and who did it.

You know how I know you haven't actually been reading what I've been posting?

I offered no proof because I'm making no claims, because there is no proof. That my my first post in this stupid thread said.
Link Posted: 9/30/2022 11:17:13 PM EDT
[#3]
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Quoted:



I haven't seen anyone try to excuse anything Biden has done. This has jack and shit to do with Biden, other than the usual suspects latching on the words of braindead politicians to advance a conspiracy theory. See also the obsession with Nuland and the "Bioweapon labs" story.

Just like I have yet to see you articulate any type of rationalization for the idea that Biden was inadvertently leaking plans for a super secret U.S. plan to attack Nordstream 1 a full 6 months after the invasion and only after the Russians shut it down for "maintenance."
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If anyone finds this response TL/DR, I understand. If I was a better writer it would be briefer.

I don't think most folks argument is "Biden was inadvertently leaking plans for a super secret U.S. plan...", and you attempting to shift it as such is a canard.

The argument is "Biden was making a veiled threat that, by one means or another, that pipeline wouldn't go through if Russian invades Ukraine." Biden was attempting to influence Russia into NOT invading Ukraine, by putting the future revenues of the pipeline on the table. Again, incredibly hard to take you at your word that this is not blatantly apparent to you (and OTHERS). Did this veiled threat become pointless once Russia shut it down themselves? Yes. Does that lend credence to the argument that we didn't do it, given what had already unfolded. Yes.

Does this mean the U.S. sabotaged NS1 and NS2? No. Does it look bad? Yes.
Did the U.S. damage the pipelines to make a point not to call our 7 month old bluff? Unlikely but possible.
Did Russia damage them in an "I am taking my ball and going home, fuck you guys" act of spite? Unlikely but possible.

If the U.S. in fact did it, would it be an evil act? Not necessarily. If Germany did it would it be an evil act? Not necessarily.
As many have recently pointed out, Zelenski saying Russia wasn't going to invade was an acceptable and necessary lie.
Might the attack of the pipelines also be acceptable and necessary? I can see where it would be in regards to getting in front of certain potential events.

You attempting to shut down the "it's looks bad" narrative with these paper thin arguments actually makes it look even worse. Because now we have at least two well respected posters, known for intelligent responses, responding with what appears to be illogical emotion based ad hominems. It is out of character and I am not the only one who has noticed it.

It makes one wonder if you (and OTHERS) have made a deliberate choice to influence the narrative for what you see as the greater good (which may in fact be the righteous cause), knowing full well that a certain segment of this board is going to see past the emotion of your argument and realize the logic behind most of your assertations doesn't hold water?

I would not sacrifice my credibility so easily, but maybe you see this as an 11th hour issue? I would think trading away a lot of your reputation to score on this one issue would be short sighted. But maybe I am not aware of just how important this issue is. Maybe you are correct in doing so, but it isn't going unnoticed.

I think there are quite a few people on this board (who are not "commie Putin dick sucks") that think there are any number of players that may have reason to damage the pipelines. Using the available information they are trying to discuss who may, or may not, have reason to do so, and the validity of said reasons. I see this as a reasonable topic for discussion. Then certain folks, you among them, come in and disparage anyone who doesn't toe the line. Not a good look.

If you are true to recent form, you or OTHERS will respond with something along the lines of a dismissive "you must be compromised, looks like "somebody" loves commie balls, you cannot be this dumb, it is amazing how easily dumb people fall into the trap..etc." one liner.
Link Posted: 9/30/2022 11:39:47 PM EDT
[#4]
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Quoted:




Shhhhhh! You aren't supposed to know all that. "We" blew up the only chance for all of Europe to survive the most brutal winter in history of winter.
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Brilliant move. Now Russia has nothing in that sector to bargain with.
There are other land based pipelines. Europe is still buying energy...and writing checks.

Russia supplied 40% of Europe's energy, that's a chunk.  You can't replace that in 6 months. The infrastructure to transport that amount if fossile fuel doesn't just pop up like mushrooms.

Renewables are a peak demand load shaping source at best. No amount of renewable energy without a heretofore non existent form of storage replaces the need for fossile fuels.

Most of the energy is used in places other than where it's extracted.

All this means is that no matter who blew the NS system...everybody is now committed.  

Cortez just burned his ships.  

I don't care if you've spent your adult life training to fight Russia or you still have some putin jiz on your chin...this is an escalation.

There probably won't be an off ramp now.  Russia is burning its future.




Shhhhhh! You aren't supposed to know all that. "We" blew up the only chance for all of Europe to survive the most brutal winter in history of winter.


Russia was going to turn on the taps at the last minute with a big "just kidding," and be a hero, but big meanie Biden and the Nazi CIA FBI had to go and ruin everything.
Link Posted: 9/30/2022 11:53:43 PM EDT
[#5]
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Quoted:


Russia was going to turn on the taps at the last minute with a big "just kidding," and be a hero, but big meanie Biden and the Nazi CIA FBI had to go and ruin everything.
View Quote


It is blatant to anyone that you do not honestly think this is his, or anyone else's, argument. You are just trying to buffoon him.
I don't think you are scoring any points with anyone who isn't already a die hard fan of yours.

The argument, which I am sure you are aware of, is that Putin was hoping that dangling the carrot of cheap gas turned back on in Germany, would influence the German people to put pressure on their own government, potentially through riots if things get bad enough, in an effort to force them to end sanctions and get cheap energy back. You know, like what happened in the U.S. when public sentiment turned against the Vietnam war?

The damaging of the pipelines takes a lot of wind out of the argument that ending the sanctions would result in cheap energy. Now that is not a certainty any time soon. The immediacy of relief is gone.

Are you going to ignore that as a factor? Dismiss it out of hand?
Link Posted: 9/30/2022 11:54:47 PM EDT
[#6]
Link Posted: 9/30/2022 11:58:53 PM EDT
[#7]
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Quoted:
I posted this in another thread and thought it might be informative.

I read German news websites, and particularly like Cicero as it's unbiased and just good journalism. They had an interesting article about why the Russians are the likely culprit: https://www.cicero.de/aussenpolitik/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-russland-explosion-erdgas . You guys can shove it through Google Translate if you want. Here are the salient points:
  • Nordstream 1 and 2 actually consists of PAIRS of pipes.
  • Nordstream 1 has only ONE damaged pipe, so they could resume delivery through the other one. Nordstream 2, of course, was never in use.
  • They can show the West that they're serious
  • They can create economic panic
  • Turn European public opinion against the war
  • Implicitly threaten similar pipelines that are used to circumvent Russian supplies.
The fact that one pipeline is still open for Russian is a gamechanger in the argument that it couldn't have been the Russians IMO. The Germans have a vested interest in keeping the pipelines open and most politicians are blaming the Russians. That says quite a bit.
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Thank you for contributing something meaningful, that is a pretty compelling argument.

I mean it's not "If you don't believe me you are an idiot that loves to smell Putin's gooch" level of persuasive, but it is pretty good.
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 12:05:30 AM EDT
[#8]
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 12:06:02 AM EDT
[#9]
SITREP 9.30.22 LIVE! - Threat Level Midnight - Bobbleheads at Work
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 12:07:55 AM EDT
[#10]
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 12:14:38 AM EDT
[#11]
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Quoted:
Just read another article from the socialist jackasses at Der Spiegel. Even they are thinking it's the Russians:
  • Russia has been playing brutal economic blackmail with their energy for years if not decades. A report indicates that they've done that 55 times between 1991 and 2006, an average of 4 times a year.
  • They stopped delivering energy 40 times during that timeframe.
  • Don't forget about Russia's economic war denying access to Ukrainian wheat
  • Russian submarines have been observed using submarines with increasing frequency at seabed infrastructure sites since 2015
  • Russia has been building up their "seabed warfare" capabilities for years.
  • The US warned the Germans months ago that this might happen.
  • There's speculation that by busting their own pipelines, they can't be sued for economic damages. Thin, but they mentioned it...
I do NOT believe the US did it, for one simple reason: We're the good guys. Yes, we fuck up from time to time and Biden is an idiot, but I don't believe we would cause serious damage to an ally like Germany (even if they've been a shitty ally lately).
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My only issue with what you typed is the “we’re the good guys” part.  That’s not a true statement in my opinion. The federal government said we’re the enemy. Couple that with the lies/propaganda starting with the Steele dossier, and then the Covid BS, and I trust our government about as much as the Russian government.
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 12:20:03 AM EDT
[#12]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
I posted this in another thread and thought it might be informative.

I read German news websites, and particularly like Cicero as it's unbiased and just good journalism. They had an interesting article about why the Russians are the likely culprit: https://www.cicero.de/aussenpolitik/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-russland-explosion-erdgas . You guys can shove it through Google Translate if you want. Here are the salient points:
  • Nordstream 1 and 2 actually consists of PAIRS of pipes.
  • Nordstream 1 has only ONE damaged pipe, so they could resume delivery through the other one. Nordstream 2, of course, was never in use.
  • They can show the West that they're serious
  • They can create economic panic
  • Turn European public opinion against the war
  • Implicitly threaten similar pipelines that are used to circumvent Russian supplies.
The fact that one pipeline is still open for Russian is a gamechanger in the argument that it couldn't have been the Russians IMO. The Germans have a vested interest in keeping the pipelines open and most politicians are blaming the Russians. That says quite a bit.
View Quote


One being available is finally something.

How would it turn Europe against the war? It should have the opposite impact. If both pipelines were completely disabled, there would be much less for Germany and Europe to lose by continuing the war.

Russia already shut the pipes off. How much more economic panic can you create?

The obvious number one culprit is the US, followed by the German military, in order to prevent the political side from caving to Russia to turn the gas back on.

I'm against Russia's invasion, I'm against the west intervening, but if we're going to do this, we should destroy both Nordstream pipelines. Strategically, it's a "duh" move.
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 12:51:49 AM EDT
[#13]
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Quoted:


One being available is finally something.

How would it turn Europe against the war? It should have the opposite impact. If both pipelines were completely disabled, there would be much less for Germany and Europe to lose by continuing the war.

Russia already shut the pipes off. How much more economic panic can you create?

The obvious number one culprit is the US, followed by the German military, in order to prevent the political side from caving to Russia to turn the gas back on.

I'm against Russia's invasion, I'm against the west intervening, but if we're going to do this, we should destroy both Nordstream pipelines. Strategically, it's a "duh" move.
View Quote
It's economic warfare against the people of Germany to break their morale by denying them energy.  The Russians hope that cold people and shut down factories will make it more likely that they will attempt to barter an acceptable peace. It's the same reason we bombed civilians in WW2. I still think that the primary audience is Russian. The secondary audience is Germany.
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 1:25:45 AM EDT
[#14]
Who wins in a war of the USA vs Russia? China.

Why didn't the USA blow the Nordstream back at the beginning, when it was still pumping gas?

Who has to gain from increased tensions between USA & Russia?   China.

200ft isn't shit regarding special diving techniques or even submersibles placing a Limpet mine.

During October 1971, Operation Ivy Bells, USS Halibut tapped the Soviet underwater phone cables between their base in Kamchatka and Soviet Navy HQ in Vladivostok, 400ft of water.
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 1:38:02 AM EDT
[#15]
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Quoted:
Russian False Flag
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Attachment Attached File

Link Posted: 10/1/2022 1:38:07 AM EDT
[#16]
This threads premiss is dumb

here is better "PROOF" Putin did it, much more recently, and much more clearly.

"Will there be any political decisions that contradict the contracts? Yes, we just won't fulfill them. We will not supply anything at all if it contradicts our interests," Putin said at the Eastern Economic Forum in Russia's far east.

"We will not supply gas, oil, coal, heating oil   we will not supply anything," Putin said.


"We would only have one thing left to do: as in the famous Russian fairy tale, we would let the wolf's tail freeze," he said.
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 1:39:55 AM EDT
[#17]
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 1:44:04 AM EDT
[#18]
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Quoted:


Russia was going to turn on the taps at the last minute with a big "just kidding," and be a hero, but big meanie Biden and the Nazi CIA FBI had to go and ruin everything.
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Brilliant move. Now Russia has nothing in that sector to bargain with.
There are other land based pipelines. Europe is still buying energy...and writing checks.

Russia supplied 40% of Europe's energy, that's a chunk.  You can't replace that in 6 months. The infrastructure to transport that amount if fossile fuel doesn't just pop up like mushrooms.

Renewables are a peak demand load shaping source at best. No amount of renewable energy without a heretofore non existent form of storage replaces the need for fossile fuels.

Most of the energy is used in places other than where it's extracted.

All this means is that no matter who blew the NS system...everybody is now committed.  

Cortez just burned his ships.  

I don't care if you've spent your adult life training to fight Russia or you still have some putin jiz on your chin...this is an escalation.

There probably won't be an off ramp now.  Russia is burning its future.




Shhhhhh! You aren't supposed to know all that. "We" blew up the only chance for all of Europe to survive the most brutal winter in history of winter.


Russia was going to turn on the taps at the last minute with a big "just kidding," and be a hero, but big meanie Biden and the Nazi CIA FBI had to go and ruin everything.


Yeah last time I checked Germany and the rest of Western Europe are supposed to be democracies. They aren’t, but they do like to keep up appearances I suppose.

If a vast majority of those populations wanted trade with Russia there would be.

The only way to remove that possibility from the board is the destruction of the pipelines.
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 1:47:59 AM EDT
[#19]
I don't know who did it. But we are incredibly lucky the pipeline was destroyed. The petro dollar relies on that whole Russian system not working.  With Russia and others now officially off the petrodollar, They are offering cheap energy to Europe with payment in rubles. Not US dollars like before.  Once one or two NATO nations leaves the petrodollar, it snowballs from there. Now that the pipeline is down, the political decision making is now off the table for Germany, Hungry, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Serbia, Austria and Czecha . Whom thahose pipelines would have served. All tempted at continuing to use Russia's cheap energy through those pipelines. Paying in the Rubal. Not US dollars. Now they are forced to use petro dollar sources of energy and continue an adversarial footing with Russia.

So basically, Putin is actually retarded by helping us in a significant way. by blowing up those pipes. And maybe.. just maybe.. delayed or halted the collapse of the US dollar.
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 1:54:48 AM EDT
[#20]

Don't know if this has been posted, but a oilfield/pipeline guy weighs in:

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html

Ok, the Nord pipeline incidents.

Sigh. I shouldn’t do this, but …

I call them “incidents” for a reason. I grew up in overseas oilfields. I try to, by training, observe everything from as objectively neutral a viewpoint as possible.

In my experience when anything involving energy-industry hydrocarbons explodes … well, sabotage isn’t the first thing that comes to mind. And honestly, when it comes to a pipeline running natural gas under Russian (non)maintenance, an explosion means that it’s Tuesday. Or Friday. Or another day of the week ending in “y”.

“But, LawDog,” I hear you say, “It was multiple explosions!”

Yes, 17 hours apart. No military is going to arrange for two pipes in the same general area to be destroyed 17 hours apart. Not without some Spec Ops guy having a fit of apoplexy. One pipe goes up in a busy shipping lane, in a busy sea, and everyone takes notice. Then you wait 17 hours to do the second — with 17 hours for people to show up and catch you running dirty? Nah, not buying it.

The Nord pipelines weren’t in use. To me, that means it’s time for maintenance! Hard to maintain pipes when product is flowing.

Pipelines running methane, under saltwater, require PMCS* quicker than you’d think, and more often than you’d believe.

I would bet a cup of coffee that any of the required weekly and monthly checks and services since the Russians took over have been pencil-whipped. (See Andreev Bay 1982.)

They officially shut it down in July of 2020 for maintenance, and had cornbread hell getting it back on-line, and “issues” with maintaining flow throughout the next year; shut it down again in July of 2021, with bigger “issues” — we say “issues” because the Russians won’t explain what these issues were — and even more problems, including unexplained, major disruptions in gas flow in Dec21/Jan22; Feb 22; and April 22.

Yeah, there’s problems with those lines. And these are the same folks that PMCS’d Chernobyl.

So. They’ve got pipelines with issues that are currently pressurised (with highly flammable, if not outright explosive, natural gas/methane), but not moving product. It’s time to find out what those issues are.

And they blew up. My shocked face, let me show you it. Next time, tell Sergei to put out the cigarette before pulling a pressure test.

Is there a possibility of sabotage? Yeah. Especially in the current world situation — but folks thought the Kursk went down because of hostile actions, too.

So, yes, hostile actions are a possibility, but mass amounts of explosive hydrocarbon gas + 300 feet down under salt water + shoddy Russian maintenance = “Nobody could have possibly seen this coming”, and yet another entry into the extensive Wikipedia page on “Soviet/Russian disasters”.

“But what issues could happen in an undersea pipeline that could cause ruptures?”

Oh, my sweet summer child. Many, many, many. You might go far as to ask, “What issues won’t cause a rupture in an undersea pipeline?” — It’d be easier to list.
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More at link.
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 2:18:22 AM EDT
[#21]
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Quoted:


Don't know if this has been posted, but a oilfield/pipeline guy weighs in:

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html



More at link.
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So pipes encased in cement under the water have a tendency to explode? Learn something new everyday.
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 2:20:50 AM EDT
[#22]
You can all stop your bickering.  China Did It.
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 2:24:58 AM EDT
[#23]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History


That's called liberal damage control.
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 2:27:13 AM EDT
[#24]
Quoted:


Yeah last time I checked Germany and the rest of Western Europe are supposed to be democracies. They aren’t, but they do like to keep up appearances I suppose.

If a vast majority of those populations wanted trade with Russia there would be.

The only way to remove that possibility from the board is the destruction of the pipelines.
View Quote

This guy gets it. It leaves no options.
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 3:10:20 AM EDT
[#25]
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Quoted:


Don't know if this has been posted, but a oilfield/pipeline guy weighs in:

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html



More at link.
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Quoted:


Don't know if this has been posted, but a oilfield/pipeline guy weighs in:

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html

Ok, the Nord pipeline incidents.

Sigh. I shouldn’t do this, but …

I call them “incidents” for a reason. I grew up in overseas oilfields. I try to, by training, observe everything from as objectively neutral a viewpoint as possible.

In my experience when anything involving energy-industry hydrocarbons explodes … well, sabotage isn’t the first thing that comes to mind. And honestly, when it comes to a pipeline running natural gas under Russian (non)maintenance, an explosion means that it’s Tuesday. Or Friday. Or another day of the week ending in “y”.

“But, LawDog,” I hear you say, “It was multiple explosions!”

Yes, 17 hours apart. No military is going to arrange for two pipes in the same general area to be destroyed 17 hours apart. Not without some Spec Ops guy having a fit of apoplexy. One pipe goes up in a busy shipping lane, in a busy sea, and everyone takes notice. Then you wait 17 hours to do the second — with 17 hours for people to show up and catch you running dirty? Nah, not buying it.

The Nord pipelines weren’t in use. To me, that means it’s time for maintenance! Hard to maintain pipes when product is flowing.

Pipelines running methane, under saltwater, require PMCS* quicker than you’d think, and more often than you’d believe.

I would bet a cup of coffee that any of the required weekly and monthly checks and services since the Russians took over have been pencil-whipped. (See Andreev Bay 1982.)

They officially shut it down in July of 2020 for maintenance, and had cornbread hell getting it back on-line, and “issues” with maintaining flow throughout the next year; shut it down again in July of 2021, with bigger “issues” — we say “issues” because the Russians won’t explain what these issues were — and even more problems, including unexplained, major disruptions in gas flow in Dec21/Jan22; Feb 22; and April 22.

Yeah, there’s problems with those lines. And these are the same folks that PMCS’d Chernobyl.

So. They’ve got pipelines with issues that are currently pressurised (with highly flammable, if not outright explosive, natural gas/methane), but not moving product. It’s time to find out what those issues are.

And they blew up. My shocked face, let me show you it. Next time, tell Sergei to put out the cigarette before pulling a pressure test.

Is there a possibility of sabotage? Yeah. Especially in the current world situation — but folks thought the Kursk went down because of hostile actions, too.

So, yes, hostile actions are a possibility, but mass amounts of explosive hydrocarbon gas + 300 feet down under salt water + shoddy Russian maintenance = “Nobody could have possibly seen this coming”, and yet another entry into the extensive Wikipedia page on “Soviet/Russian disasters”.

“But what issues could happen in an undersea pipeline that could cause ruptures?”

Oh, my sweet summer child. Many, many, many. You might go far as to ask, “What issues won’t cause a rupture in an undersea pipeline?” — It’d be easier to list.


More at link.


Not buying it, and the child speak down tone is just weird.  I've dealt with dozens of pipeline failure, never a scenario of multiples under a waterway.....and without an environmental condition to entertain it's possibility.  Besides it's pretty easy to tell if the pipe blew from the interior or initiated from an external event.
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 5:16:01 AM EDT
[#26]
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Quoted:


So, you admit Russia lies as a basic part of its foreign policy?
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Why do you think the pipeline was turned off in the first place?


So Germany would have to start using the NG they have stored. It's supposed to be a two month supply and Russia needs to break the EU's solidarity before Russia's army is driven out of Ukraine.


So, you admit Russia lies as a basic part of its foreign policy?



Every country lies if it helps them accomplish something.
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 5:21:46 AM EDT
[#27]
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Quoted:
Ask yourself this:

Does your position on his topic coincidentally align with that of Putin?

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So that's how you decide your position on every topic. It all makes sense now. Thank you for that admission!
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 5:31:28 AM EDT
[#28]
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Quoted:
I don't know who did it. But we are incredibly lucky the pipeline was destroyed. The petro dollar relies on that whole Russian system not working.  With Russia and others now officially off the petrodollar, They are offering cheap energy to Europe with payment in rubles. Not US dollars like before.  Once one or two NATO nations leaves the petrodollar, it snowballs from there. Now that the pipeline is down, the political decision making is now off the table for Germany, Hungry, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Serbia, Austria and Czecha . Whom thahose pipelines would have served. All tempted at continuing to use Russia's cheap energy through those pipelines. Paying in the Rubal. Not US dollars. Now they are forced to use petro dollar sources of energy and continue an adversarial footing with Russia.

So basically, Putin is actually retarded by helping us in a significant way. by blowing up those pipes. And maybe.. just maybe.. delayed or halted the collapse of the US dollar.
View Quote



Or you could come to the opposite and more sensible conclusion that the US destroyed the pipelines to protect the petrodollar.
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 5:36:10 AM EDT
[#29]
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Quoted:


Don't know if this has been posted, but a oilfield/pipeline guy weighs in:

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html



More at link.
View Quote View All Quotes
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Don't know if this has been posted, but a oilfield/pipeline guy weighs in:

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html

Ok, the Nord pipeline incidents.

Sigh. I shouldn’t do this, but …

I call them “incidents” for a reason. I grew up in overseas oilfields. I try to, by training, observe everything from as objectively neutral a viewpoint as possible.

In my experience when anything involving energy-industry hydrocarbons explodes … well, sabotage isn’t the first thing that comes to mind. And honestly, when it comes to a pipeline running natural gas under Russian (non)maintenance, an explosion means that it’s Tuesday. Or Friday. Or another day of the week ending in “y”.

“But, LawDog,” I hear you say, “It was multiple explosions!”

Yes, 17 hours apart. No military is going to arrange for two pipes in the same general area to be destroyed 17 hours apart. Not without some Spec Ops guy having a fit of apoplexy. One pipe goes up in a busy shipping lane, in a busy sea, and everyone takes notice. Then you wait 17 hours to do the second — with 17 hours for people to show up and catch you running dirty? Nah, not buying it.

The Nord pipelines weren’t in use. To me, that means it’s time for maintenance! Hard to maintain pipes when product is flowing.

Pipelines running methane, under saltwater, require PMCS* quicker than you’d think, and more often than you’d believe.

I would bet a cup of coffee that any of the required weekly and monthly checks and services since the Russians took over have been pencil-whipped. (See Andreev Bay 1982.)

They officially shut it down in July of 2020 for maintenance, and had cornbread hell getting it back on-line, and “issues” with maintaining flow throughout the next year; shut it down again in July of 2021, with bigger “issues” — we say “issues” because the Russians won’t explain what these issues were — and even more problems, including unexplained, major disruptions in gas flow in Dec21/Jan22; Feb 22; and April 22.

Yeah, there’s problems with those lines. And these are the same folks that PMCS’d Chernobyl.

So. They’ve got pipelines with issues that are currently pressurised (with highly flammable, if not outright explosive, natural gas/methane), but not moving product. It’s time to find out what those issues are.

And they blew up. My shocked face, let me show you it. Next time, tell Sergei to put out the cigarette before pulling a pressure test.

Is there a possibility of sabotage? Yeah. Especially in the current world situation — but folks thought the Kursk went down because of hostile actions, too.

So, yes, hostile actions are a possibility, but mass amounts of explosive hydrocarbon gas + 300 feet down under salt water + shoddy Russian maintenance = “Nobody could have possibly seen this coming”, and yet another entry into the extensive Wikipedia page on “Soviet/Russian disasters”.

“But what issues could happen in an undersea pipeline that could cause ruptures?”

Oh, my sweet summer child. Many, many, many. You might go far as to ask, “What issues won’t cause a rupture in an undersea pipeline?” — It’d be easier to list.


More at link.



This would be believable if we all heard about pipelines blowing up regularly. It doesn't seem to be as common an event as this guy would have us believe.
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 5:42:00 AM EDT
[#30]
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Quoted:
Newsom from California did it. He's exporting his communist "Gas Shutdown" to all nations now
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Wow first post after 15 years of being a member.
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 5:45:31 AM EDT
[#31]
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This would be believable if we all heard about pipelines blowing up regularly. It doesn't seem to be as common an event as this guy would have us believe.
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You can't say that without first knowing how many unused, but still pressurized undersea pipelines there are.  No that's not right.
You can't say that without first knowing how many unused, but still pressurized Russian-operated undersea pipelines there are.
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 5:50:56 AM EDT
[#32]
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You can't say that without first knowing how many unused, but still pressurized undersea pipelines there are.  No that's not right.
You can't say that without first knowing how many unused, but still pressurized Russian-operated undersea pipelines there are.
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This would be believable if we all heard about pipelines blowing up regularly. It doesn't seem to be as common an event as this guy would have us believe.
You can't say that without first knowing how many unused, but still pressurized undersea pipelines there are.  No that's not right.
You can't say that without first knowing how many unused, but still pressurized Russian-operated undersea pipelines there are.


Lol.....this was no accident......get that out of your head so you can contribute something to the conversation.
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 6:11:18 AM EDT
[#33]
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Lol.....this was no accident......get that out of your head so you can contribute something to the conversation.
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They'll try any argument, no matter how ridiculous, to try to obscure the obvious.
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 6:14:17 AM EDT
[#34]
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Wow first post after 15 years of being a member.
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Quoted:
Quoted:
Newsom from California did it. He's exporting his communist "Gas Shutdown" to all nations now
Wow first post after 15 years of being a member.



Lurkers are lurking among us!
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 6:39:48 AM EDT
[#35]
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Quoted:



Lurkers are lurking among us!
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Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Newsom from California did it. He's exporting his communist "Gas Shutdown" to all nations now
Wow first post after 15 years of being a member.



Lurkers are lurking among us!


Hey!! did you get your draft notice yet?
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 7:47:09 AM EDT
[#36]
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They'll try any argument, no matter how ridiculous, to try to obscure the obvious.
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That Russia is waging a genocidal war of conquest on it's neighbors and is upset Nato is doing something about it?
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 8:02:01 AM EDT
[#37]
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Not buying it, and the child speak down tone is just weird.  I've dealt with dozens of pipeline failure, never a scenario of multiples under a waterway.....and without an environmental condition to entertain it's possibility.  Besides it's pretty easy to tell if the pipe blew from the interior or initiated from an external event.
View Quote
Most of the basic information is sound and even supported with links. There was no down talking unless the listener is just a modern over sensitive woke little fuck. The language style is common amongst Texas and Oklahoma oil field guys that went all  over the world in the 70's building and operating petro infrastructure. I work with a boomer like that now who isn't quite at the technical level of the article poster but his experiences are mostly correctly self-interpreted.

The article poser even admitted he went a bit too far with the diesel effect example. It appears that large numbers of people aren't understanding that the word explosion is not exclusive to chemical reaction explosion. The water hammer effect is real in creating pressure spikes and does not require chemical reaction explosions to over pressurize components to failure.  

Most challengers presented childishly ignorant and one dimensional counter arguments typical of many arfcom threads on technical matters.

Counter arguments included false assumptions that explosion exclusively implies chemical explosion. Numerous people where unable to understand that mechanically damaging an pressure vessel can cause a rupture described as an explosion. Apparently, these people have never popped a balloon or heard of someone being killed by an overfilled tire. These same people could not understand that a rupture in a 48" pressure vessel that is 759 miles long would result in a seismic reading equivalent to a hundred or two kilos of TNT. Many of those people aren't even capable of understanding that equivalent does not mean actual TNT was used.

Other counter arguments implied large US assault ships being in the area as proof of American sabotage while ignoring Soviet activity.

Everything is speculation at this stage. Some speculation is not credible or highly unlikely. Other speculation is credible. I don't think it will be too difficult to find out the cause and I would bet there are lots of orgs with resources that really want to know.


Link Posted: 10/1/2022 8:11:48 AM EDT
[#38]
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Yeah last time I checked Germany and the rest of Western Europe are supposed to be democracies. They aren’t, but they do like to keep up appearances I suppose.

If a vast majority of those populations wanted trade with Russia there would be.

The only way to remove that possibility from the board is the destruction of the pipelines.
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Brilliant move. Now Russia has nothing in that sector to bargain with.
There are other land based pipelines. Europe is still buying energy...and writing checks.

Russia supplied 40% of Europe's energy, that's a chunk.  You can't replace that in 6 months. The infrastructure to transport that amount if fossile fuel doesn't just pop up like mushrooms.

Renewables are a peak demand load shaping source at best. No amount of renewable energy without a heretofore non existent form of storage replaces the need for fossile fuels.

Most of the energy is used in places other than where it's extracted.

All this means is that no matter who blew the NS system...everybody is now committed.  

Cortez just burned his ships.  

I don't care if you've spent your adult life training to fight Russia or you still have some putin jiz on your chin...this is an escalation.

There probably won't be an off ramp now.  Russia is burning its future.




Shhhhhh! You aren't supposed to know all that. "We" blew up the only chance for all of Europe to survive the most brutal winter in history of winter.


Russia was going to turn on the taps at the last minute with a big "just kidding," and be a hero, but big meanie Biden and the Nazi CIA FBI had to go and ruin everything.


Yeah last time I checked Germany and the rest of Western Europe are supposed to be democracies. They aren’t, but they do like to keep up appearances I suppose.

If a vast majority of those populations wanted trade with Russia there would be.

The only way to remove that possibility from the board is the destruction of the pipelines.


The last two sentences are true, although your first sentence contradicts them a bit.

Just grasping to understand your point.

Because, from here, it sounds like you are 100% agreeing with the way I've characterized the supposed motivations for the U.S. to do this.
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 8:13:17 AM EDT
[#39]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Hey!! did you get your draft notice yet?
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Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Newsom from California did it. He's exporting his communist "Gas Shutdown" to all nations now
Wow first post after 15 years of being a member.



Lurkers are lurking among us!


Hey!! did you get your draft notice yet?



Nope, still waiting!
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 8:16:18 AM EDT
[#40]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


That Russia is waging a genocidal war of conquest on it's neighbors and is upset Nato is doing something about it?
View Quote View All Quotes
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Quoted:
Quoted:



They'll try any argument, no matter how ridiculous, to try to obscure the obvious.


That Russia is waging a genocidal war of conquest on it's neighbors and is upset Nato is doing something about it?



Well, at least you admit it was a NATO country that blew up the pipelines. We're getting somewhere!
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 8:17:03 AM EDT
[#41]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Most of the basic information is sound and even supported with links. There was no down talking unless the listener is just a modern over sensitive woke little fuck. The language style is common amongst Texas and Oklahoma oil field guys that went all  over the world in the 70's building and operating petro infrastructure. I work with a boomer like that now who isn't quite at the technical level of the article poster but his experiences are mostly correctly self-interpreted.

The article poser even admitted he went a bit too far with the diesel effect example. It appears that large numbers of people aren't understanding that the word explosion is not exclusive to chemical reaction explosion. The water hammer effect is real in creating pressure spikes and does not require chemical reaction explosions to over pressurize components to failure.  

Most challengers presented childishly ignorant and one dimensional counter arguments typical of many arfcom threads on technical matters.

Counter arguments included false assumptions that explosion exclusively implies chemical explosion. Numerous people where unable to understand that mechanically damaging an pressure vessel can cause a rupture described as an explosion. Apparently, these people have never popped a balloon or heard of someone being killed by an overfilled tire. These same people could not understand that a rupture in a 48" pressure vessel that is 759 miles long would result in a seismic reading equivalent to a hundred or two kilos of TNT. Many of those people aren't even capable of understanding that equivalent does not mean actual TNT was used.

Other counter arguments implied large US assault ships being in the area as proof of American sabotage while ignoring Soviet activity.

Everything is speculation at this stage. Some speculation is not credible or highly unlikely. Other speculation is credible. I don't think it will be too difficult to find out the cause and I would bet there are lots of orgs with resources that really want to know.


View Quote View All Quotes
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Quoted:
Quoted:


Not buying it, and the child speak down tone is just weird.  I've dealt with dozens of pipeline failure, never a scenario of multiples under a waterway.....and without an environmental condition to entertain it's possibility.  Besides it's pretty easy to tell if the pipe blew from the interior or initiated from an external event.
Most of the basic information is sound and even supported with links. There was no down talking unless the listener is just a modern over sensitive woke little fuck. The language style is common amongst Texas and Oklahoma oil field guys that went all  over the world in the 70's building and operating petro infrastructure. I work with a boomer like that now who isn't quite at the technical level of the article poster but his experiences are mostly correctly self-interpreted.

The article poser even admitted he went a bit too far with the diesel effect example. It appears that large numbers of people aren't understanding that the word explosion is not exclusive to chemical reaction explosion. The water hammer effect is real in creating pressure spikes and does not require chemical reaction explosions to over pressurize components to failure.  

Most challengers presented childishly ignorant and one dimensional counter arguments typical of many arfcom threads on technical matters.

Counter arguments included false assumptions that explosion exclusively implies chemical explosion. Numerous people where unable to understand that mechanically damaging an pressure vessel can cause a rupture described as an explosion. Apparently, these people have never popped a balloon or heard of someone being killed by an overfilled tire. These same people could not understand that a rupture in a 48" pressure vessel that is 759 miles long would result in a seismic reading equivalent to a hundred or two kilos of TNT. Many of those people aren't even capable of understanding that equivalent does not mean actual TNT was used.

Other counter arguments implied large US assault ships being in the area as proof of American sabotage while ignoring Soviet activity.

Everything is speculation at this stage. Some speculation is not credible or highly unlikely. Other speculation is credible. I don't think it will be too difficult to find out the cause and I would bet there are lots of orgs with resources that really want to know.




Yawn.....you guys are relentless and ignorant....NG is compressible so the examples don't even jive.  Have you ever worked any type of line blow out???  
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 8:19:45 AM EDT
[#42]
Nope.
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 8:24:57 AM EDT
[#43]
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Quoted:



They'll try any argument, no matter how ridiculous, to try to obscure the obvious.
View Quote
People of low information and intelligence frequently come to wrong conclusions or think things are obvious because they aren't capable of fully considering alternatives, understanding probabilities or requiring even a spec of proof to substantiate their claims. They speak in absolute terms and allow no possibility that they might be wrong. Such people have little experience in working with complex processes or if they do, are the ones responsible for fucking them up.

I once came upon one of these clowns who was running a pump dry. It was squealing. I told him to shut it down, he was running it dry. He was an enormous man as in very tall and not a fat slob. He angrily shouted back that it couldn't be dry, it had pressure in it, pointing at the gauge. I told him his tires have pressure in them too, doesn't mean they are full of water.


Link Posted: 10/1/2022 8:40:06 AM EDT
[#44]
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 8:41:29 AM EDT
[#45]
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 8:47:17 AM EDT
[#46]
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If you posted something that was NOT pro-Putin, would you get a knock on your door?  
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They'll try any argument, no matter how ridiculous, to try to obscure the obvious.


That Russia is waging a genocidal war of conquest on it's neighbors and is upset Nato is doing something about it?



Well, at least you admit it was a NATO country that blew up the pipelines. We're getting somewhere!

If you posted something that was NOT pro-Putin, would you get a knock on your door?  


I doubt that's anything he'd have to worry about.
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 8:47:31 AM EDT
[#47]
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You need to differentiate the actions of a relatively small cabal of individuals with the official actions of our government as a whole. Obviously there are lots of corrupt politicians, but there are a lot more people involved to set policy and execute it than it takes for a few renegades to whip up the Steele dossier, for example.
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My only issue with what you typed is the "we're the good guys" part.  That's not a true statement in my opinion. The federal government said we're the enemy. Couple that with the lies/propaganda starting with the Steele dossier, and then the Covid BS, and I trust our government about as much as the Russian government.

You need to differentiate the actions of a relatively small cabal of individuals with the official actions of our government as a whole. Obviously there are lots of corrupt politicians, but there are a lot more people involved to set policy and execute it than it takes for a few renegades to whip up the Steele dossier, for example.



Agreed, but the problem is that every government institution is under the control of the relatively small cabal of individuals.
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 8:53:22 AM EDT
[#48]
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He lied about the invasion because a panicked rush for the boarder would have caused more damage than the Russians did.
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Yup, I believed Zelenskyy. Last time I ever will.

He lied about the invasion because a panicked rush for the boarder would have caused more damage than the Russians did.


No, he lied to protect his re-election efforts, what makes it particularly bad is that he promised not to run again. The guy truly is a piece of shit.

I demonstrated this earlier with references and the Ukraine Bros denied it. It was really pathetic.
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 8:55:38 AM EDT
[#49]
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We've been over this so many times. Zelensky did what he had to do when given the options of two different shit sandwiches.
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Biden's statement is evidence.
It's fine with me if you want to defend him.
All the liberals are.



It's evidence that THAT clip of him was prepped and ready to be characterized as "evidence" by the Useful ones.

How many of us all these many months were wondering what Biden meant by that?

Did ANYONE suggest that he was speaking in kinetic terms?

Nope.

We briefly used that as "evidence" of Biden's incompetence and powerlessness.


Everyone knew that destroying it was an option when he said that. It is unbecoming to pretend otherwise.


That's nonsense.  We all discussed that comment HERE.  

Do you specifically recall ANYONE claiming that he meant he would blow it up?

Are you claiming that YOU suggested that he meant he would blow it up?


I found a single, contemporeneous mention of it in archive:

/02/07/2022:
Quoted:
I just heard on the radio that mumbles intends to shut off the Nordstream 2 pipeline if Vlad invades the Ukraine.

Such statesmanship.

I'm sure the perfidious rotkrauts will support him to the hilt.



mean tweets defeated.


No one ever mentioned that they thought he meant blow it up.  


Very dishonest post.


Not in the least.  It's 100% factual.


No, it is not. I didn't watch the speech but a conspiracy minded co-worker told me Biden made a threat to take out the Nordstream pipeline if Russia invaded. I told him Biden was too much a pussy and didn't want to take our bin Laden.

I also told him Russia was not going to invade.
Yes, you were quite adamant that Russia wouldn't invade, as I recall.  In spite of the overwhelming evidence that it was going to happen

You tenor then was similar to your tenor now.



Unlike others here, I both allow new information to change my viewpoint and will admit when I am wrong.

Plenty of people understood that Biden meant to shut that pipeline by any means in case of invasion. Starting with political pressure on Germany and if that didn't work he would escalate to sabotage if necessary.

The threat in the message is crystal clear. You destroy your own credibility by denying it.


Why would Biden need to put political pressure on Germany, when he's standing right next to him at the press conference agreeing with him?


Yup, I believed Zelenskyy. Last time I ever will.



We've been over this so many times. Zelensky did what he had to do when given the options of two different shit sandwiches.


No he didn’t. He downplayed the possibility of invasion for personal gain and instead of preparing his country and possibly discouraging the invasion his failure encouraged the invasion.
Link Posted: 10/1/2022 8:56:41 AM EDT
[#50]
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Absolutely.

I've explained to Clay a number of times all the reasons why Zelensky did what he did, and he continually ignores it...but you're right, it's irrelevant to the current discussion.
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Yup, I believed Zelenskyy. Last time I ever will.

He lied about the invasion because a panicked rush for the boarder would have caused more damage than the Russians did.

One reason of MANY.


It's all so hilariously irrelevant though, and such a distraction.

Pearl Harbor wasn't about FDR and his policies.

Whether the Polish president in 1930 was a good guy corrupt, or worth a shit in any way has zero fucking relevance to the act of aggression. Few even remember who was in charge of Poland then.

Watching the weird Russian obsession with strong leaders get projected outward - and readily accepted - in these messaging lines has been the strangest aspect of this for me.

In civilized and successful countries, they get on in spite of their leaders, who are a necessary evil performing specific functions. Russian apparatchiks have zero understanding of this. It used to be, Americans did.

Now we're even letting foreign propaganda convince us to side with Russia just because we don't like Biden. We've gone full retard.



Absolutely.

I've explained to Clay a number of times all the reasons why Zelensky did what he did, and he continually ignores it...but you're right, it's irrelevant to the current discussion.


No, you have made sorry excuses for his bad policies. It is sad.
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