So exactly who in the DPRK does China even talk to? I mean if they are China's puppet, who is picking up the phone when Xi calls?

China had the support of NK when a guy named Jang Song Thaek had the ear of previous Kim and new Kim. He was brother in law to old Kim, uncle to new Kim. Then new Kim had him executed back in 2013 on trumped up charges, along with his entourage. (This was done because of his Pro-China meddling).

So you saying NK is China's puppet, when all indications that isn't true as soon as you start looking at the micro and not the macro. And soon as you start learning makes, politics, backgrounds, then suddenly it becomes pretty clear that while they definitely were allies the hardline faction representing Kim Jung Un did everything they could to remove Chinese influence.

China is currently, if nothing more than temporarily, onboard with what Trump is doing right now. China is sactioning and embargoing NK, which is really the limit of overt force they can apply politically. And likely they are using what small number of connections they have left on the less powerful factions in the NK ministry to apply pressure and "advice."

And Trump knows what threat China represents. And he's dealing with that too.

Can anyone explain to me why ASSHOLE Kim did this???

Nukes are the best deterrent to invasion available.  The trade embargo is a double edged sword, it hurts NK, to the point that they become desperate to get functional ICBM's before they have an economic collapse and become easy pickings for an invasions.

Big picture

Makes sense......you also funyun...........maybe they feel "squeezed" and this is the way they think it can best neutralize that feeling.

Pretty dangerous gamble IMHO.

Big picture

China controls NK to a certain extent, but a belligerent child is a belligerent child and doesn't always listen to it's parents.

China has little to gain by going to war with the US except lose it's biggest customer.

delete

Read this post

And then, inside that post, read the other post hyperlinked too. After that you'll have a nice background on what has happened and why Kim keeps saber rattling.

Thanks!!

I'll repost it.  Definitely worth the read:

"Here is what is actually happening, to elaborate on this post I wrote a couple weeks back.

The Trump administration, in a last ditch effort to prevent NK from being a credible nuclear power, managed to convince China to go along with absolutely nationwide CRUSHING sanctions and embargoes that in the near feature will utterly destroy NK infrastructure at a level that will make the 90s Famine look like Times of Plenty. This is a gambit most likely designed around trying to instigate the pro-long term survival factions to overthrow the faction directly supporting Kim Jung Un, the Organization Guidance Department (who are the worst of the worst in terms of hardliners). Either them alone are targets of a potential coup, or better yet the current Kim goes with them against the wall and his brother or uncle replaces him. This is the only real option that doesn't involve a true military response (which is probably why certain people, like Bannon, admitted we don't actually have a military option, we're taking down NK doing it diplomatically).

To counter Trump's efforts Kim and his minions running NK have limited options. Full capitulation, which is a death sentence of Kim's puppet faction. Do nothing, which will be disastrous. Launch a war, which will be suicidal. Or saber rattle in a way hard enough in the hopes the increased tension will be enough to get China to drop the sanctions and embargoes to allow the time for NK to finalize their nuke and rocket development, create redundant launch platforms to be a creditable nuclear power. They are clearly doing option four (if they wanted war, they would have started it).

The last round of saber rattling (like this one, wont be the last) ended with the NK capitulating after the last US response blatantly threatened nukes if they launched any missile offensively. The only response to escalate was to actually launch a missile offensively and dare the US to nuke them, but they weren't about to do that, the whole point of everything they're doing is hoping to avoid a war with the US. So they immediately deescalated and then waited WEEKS before doing shit again.

During this time Kim was likely busy dealing with court intrigue that would make the shit you all see in Game of Thrones look like care free times. He has to try to act like he is still in control, that he still knows what he is doing, and that his way will still end in victory. So back to saber rattling. Shit has calmed down enough to launch round 2. And then Trump will respond, and it will escalate again in the same terrifying way it did last time. So standby and Trump will soon Tweet something over the top, then Mattis will release something a bit less harsh, then State Dept will release something not as harsh as Trump but firm, then Mattis will match and beat it with something hard, and then Trump will really rub it in with another over-the-top Tweet. And then once, again, NK will fold.

This is going to keep happening for a while until something decisive happens. Kim himself wont blink, he isnt' allowed to, the faction that put him in power (OGD) wont allow him to do it, they control him, he is their puppet (because they were created by his dad, to further NK long term survivability). He could have a total nervous breakdown (which he likely had already) and they'll pump him full of drugs enough to read a script to his assembled ministers. And he'll keep doing that until enough pressure is borne down on someone important to cause something decisive to happen. The power elite of NK aren't a hive mind, and while they would never openly call out their Dear Fatty, they will bow and scrape to their Emperor, they will back door him in a heartbeat and take down his supporters, especially if it means nothing happens to fatty, instead his loyalists are put against the wall and replaced by the pro-survival faction.

But rest assured, neither side wants war. If they did, they'd have started it already. So calm the fuck down, its not the end of the world. Its just tough negotiating."

Not just a deterrent to invasion, but a way to blackmail their neighbors for food and other aid.  For the past twenty years (at least), they've engaged in saber rattling in order to get some kind of assistance from the US or ROK.

In my limited experience, other Asians dislike the Koreans.

I'm not sure why.

Gheeeeeezus.     I am way too simple and dum  to play in that league.    That's a heavy read.

Because all Asians hate all of each other and think they are superior to other Asians. They are some of the most racist people alive.

This has been my experience.

ETA: I've had some very good Chinese friends, but I got the impression I was more of a pet than an equal.

I think you answered your own question there.

Nikki Haley was just interviewed about NK latest missile launch and said "Enough is enough!"

South Korea holds live-fire drills that simulate destroying North Korea's leadership

*Disregard that its CNN, I just posted the first one I could find, they all are copying and pasting the same SK govt press release info.

Now a lot of you are going to read this and think, "That's it? That's all they do, just drop some bombs on established bombing range within their own country? Pussies!"

But this is just part of negotiations. South Korea is hinting of a military strike to take out Kim himself (if they can somehow PID his location and penetration ADA). But this is just a reply. They are calling Kim's bet. Next the US will say something damning about the stakes, something like "We will not stand for further threats" or something similar.

Now after this, Kim has to escalate, he needs to raise it again or else he has to fold. So he'll likely do something similar, launch another missile, author some state media press release calling for nuclear war and raining death on the USA. But eventually it'll come down to one last bet. We'll basically dare NK to actually attack anyone else while telling them we will use nukes if they do. And again, Kim back down. And thus will end round 2 of saber rattling. And his position will get weaker as his ministers realize that their great plan is going to cause the destruction of their country.

All of this of course hedges that China continues to play ball. If they bail out, then we have no diplomatic option. But if Trump was credible enough with Xi threatening trade tariffs should they not play ball, then I think Xi will go along with it because NK with nukes or without nukes really doesn't interfere with his 5-20 year plan.

Normally this unit would be tapped for Korea but the hurricane happened. I imagine resources are strained now

Dozens of #BayArea reservists deployed to #Houston from Moffett Air National Guard Base https://t.co/jjyIpNfF9J

KTVU  (@KTVU) August 29, 2017

You can't possibly be serious?  Everything's working as planned?   NK is getting to test nukes and missiles without repercussion until they have perfected their craft.  I don't exactly think that's the best case scenario or as planned.

Kim is rational?  You lose ALL credibility there.  Sending an assassin to another country to off a relative, executing large swaths of people because they advocate a different policy than you want, etc etc.  Sorry buddy you're either Korean and have some vested interest in NK or crazy yourself.

Kim vows more rocket tests. A statement said there would be 'more ballistic rocket launching drills with the Pacific as a target in the future.'

Link


Hwasong-12 Info

The Hwasong-12  rocket that was launched over Japan.
































North Korea has released pictures of Kim-Jong-un overseeing the latest missile test that saw a rocket fly directly over Japan.

Be a terrible shame if an ABM missed their missile and hit the launch pad instead.

Why is this the limit of China's ability? China still has a million man army, and the Yalu is not the barrier that the hyper-fortified DMZ is.  Or does the PLA still think its troops are as bad as they were in 1979 when Vietnam handed them their ass?

They wear funny hats, and their sleeves are too long for their arms.

Can't they even find a decent Korean tailor?

(Juvenile joke alert:)

Q. Where do the Norks keep their armies?

A. Up their sleevies.

Ha ha ha ha ha...

What'd I miss?



The only attacks I've seen so far are the NK mosquitoes that are getting through my air defense in my office.  Got my bug zapper goin constantly.

I'm really surprised we can't/ don't shoot ghost fuckers down when they leave nork airspace.  Wtf?

We can, we don't want to tip our hand.

i can see where making his shenanigans pointless would be a bad idea versus taking a chance of millions dying.



I'll leave the military intelligence to those who do it.

Revenge for Japan's humiliating occupation: MARK ALMOND explains how North Korea very deliberately chose the country for
its greatest act of provocation.


Link

and Guam?

"California is safe from my long hard missile! (But not Obama!)"

Why wouldn't he?

All that happened after the last one was more sabre rattling and a drop in the stock market.

It was a Win-Win for him.

He's probably hoping something will happen and Big Brother China will jump to his defense. All he has to do is avoid actually attacking America.

There was no Japanese invasion of Korea in 1910. The Japanese had been on Pen for more than a decade at that point, slowly taking over Korean affairs from the Chinese.

The ROK wasn't unarmed in 1950. They were just a light force set up to fight the Communist insurgency in the South. That force had defeated the communist inspired uprising, and to save his failed uprising Kim Il Sung invaded the South.

I could easily see risking that customer to preserve CCP rule for 50 years.

Read more, post less.

One problem is once provocative action becomes steady state, it's no longer provocative.

Gotta get the targeting guidance deal they have, and any other components.  Just call Kim fat, he does not like that.    

He and his generals will target bases and installations to wipe out.   Then Guam is the herring,   the norks get a warhead they can hold everyone hostage.

I think Un specifically is cultivating the late 1970s Properous Best Korea/Kim Il Sung look.

To the hostage point, that should be more worrisome to Beijing than Tokyo.

He might as well.

It's not like anyone is going to stop him.

Japan's missile defences 'not able to intercept North Korean ICBMs fired at Guam'



Despite assurances from Japan that its military would be able to intercept North Korean missiles fired at Guam, analysts believe there is little chance that an attack
on the Pacific island by intercontinental ballistic missiles could be
thwarted.Speaking in the Japanese parliament on Thursday, Itsunori Onodera, the defence minister, said Tokyo would come to the assistance of the
United States and any other allies in the event of an attack.The defence minister's comments were echoed by Yoshihide Suga, the chief
cabinet secretary, who told a press conference, "We cannot tolerate such
a clear provocative act to the security of the region and international
society, including out country."We will maintain our monitoring and surveillance at a high level and take all possible means to cope with any situation", he said.Japan and the US have both deployed destroyers equipped with the Aegis ballistic missile defence system, using SM-3 Block 1A and 1B interceptors, in the Sea of Japan to target
short and intermediate-range ballistic missiles. The weapon is intended
to destroy offensive missiles in the middle stage of their course.The system is backed up on land by the Patriot PAC-3 anti-missile system,
which has been deployed at Japanese and US military facilities around
Japan, as well as in the grounds of the Defence Ministry in Tokyo. The Patriot is designed to eliminate inbound missiles in their final phase.



Neither system is presently capable of effectively countering an ICBM launched on a lofted trajectory towards Guam.In a report on the 38 North web site, operated by the US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University, analysts concluded that the
likelihood of Aegis destroyers downing an ICBM test or offensive launch
is "limited, if not improbable"."In fact, the probability that the North Korean ICBM test will fail on its own is significantly higher than the probability of success"."The United States and Japan operate Aegis ships armed with SM-3 Block 1A and 1B interceptors in the East Sea," the report stated. "These
ships are capable of intercepting short, medium and intermediate range
ballistic missiles in the mid-course and terminal phases of flight.



"Tests to validate the performance of the SM-3 Block 1 interceptors are ongoing and to date have been largely successful", it adds. "SM-3
interceptors have never been tested against an ICBM, nor have they been
tested against any missile in the boost or ascent phase of flight.  "In
other words, boost - or ascent phase intercepts using SM-3 interceptors
are an unproven, hypothetical capability."Consequently, Aegis warships can only intercept a North Korean ICBM in a "limited set of circumstances", such as the weapon flying on a low trajectory that comes within 310 miles of a destroyer.North Korea's recent launches, however, have been on steeply lofted trajectories that will rapidly take them beyond the range of
interceptors.






Even if the US was fortunate - North Korea launched a missile directly over an
Aegis ship and the trajectory was not sufficiently lofted - it is still
doubtful that a successful intercept would occur, the report states.First, it is doubtful that an Aegis ship would be close enough at the right time, it adds, pointing out that: "The US or Japan would be
placing their Aegis boats at considerable risk if either attempted to
move closer than 200 km [125 miles]off North Korea’s coast while waiting
for a launch."Secondly, it remains "unclear" whether the necessary tracking data can be acquired with sufficient precision and for a fire-control
solution to be developed in the 10 seconds after the launch is detected.The study concludes that "Sea-based missile defenses available today are not capable of reliably interrupting a North Korean ICBM test".


Link

So what is the new high-loft capable missile interceptor program going to cost?

Too bad they didn't have a launch failure and that missle loop back to their location and take those assholes out.

The little fat fuck needs to get closer to the launch site.

Say, maybe within 100 yds or so.

We retired this way too early.


Thanks Obama.

Right now Kim has no oil coming into his country, he has no exports going out (that bring in cold cash, that help fund his missiles and lifestyle). Perfected their craft? This isn't art, its science. He's tossing missiles now just to make political points, not for testing value. And even if he ramped up production and created a working ICBM that could carry the warhead, he still needs to make numerous warheads and numerous missiles in a redundant fashion and sprinkle them in highly defended areas all over NK before it becomes a real nuclear deterrent. In the mean time, no oil, no exports, currency is skyrocketing from hyperinflation, their economy will crack, they're already in the start of another famine and now they just lost the oil they need to run farming vehicles, their industry is going to grind to a halt because nobody is going to have any fuel.

If you can't see this as bad because in your mind bad only means violence, that's just your poor education. There are ways to destroy a country without a single bullet or missile being fired at it. Those measures are currently being used against NK. Because Trump did what no previous had the balls to do, blackmail China with threat of tariffs if they didn't play ball.

How do you know his brother wasn't already instigating a coup? Kim did what a million and one other monarchs did, he secured his crown by removing a potential rival. Murdering his brother was possibly the sanest and most rational thing he could have done, had he not done it, his ass would already have been murdered and replaced, especially since the brother in question was the original heir apparent to Kim Jung Il. But you knew that right? You knew the history of the succession of the Kim dynasty, how Kim Jung Un came to power, and the role his brothers played, right? Of course you didn't.

Executed large swathes of people? Who? I know exactly who he executed. They were ministers and their immediate supporters who pissed off the OGD faction who fought against them through court intrigue, triumphed, and then had their rival ministers executed when they told their puppet to kill his own uncle. Did you know the primary faction culled was the one who were friendly to China? No, because you know fuck all about NK history.

Removing "traitorous" ministers is SOP for those sorts of govt, you don't just get rid of one person, you get rid of their entourages too, destroy their families, kill anyone who possibly might seek revenge. Or else you're asking for trouble. That's how monarchies have played it since history has been record, that's how it works in NK, which is more a brutal monarchy than a communist dystopia.

Not Korean, just crazy smart. Smart enough to know when someone is acting a role and when they aren't. Smart enough to know the politics of what is happening behind the current and what isnt'. I bet you also think reality tv is real and WWE is real.

Kim's act is artificial, its acting. He dresses and looks near identical to Kim Il Sung and this is an act. He blusters and says crazy shit, because that is an act. He threatens because that is an act. Its all acting. Better yet, its puppetry, being down by the hardliner faction of the OGD (not that you have a clue what that is). The point is that you fell for it all because "a sucker is born every day." And that's why Kim did it, because he can act crazy enough to trick people into thinking he is something more than he really is.

What Kim Jung Un really is, he's the modern Pharaoh. The modern Byzantine Emperor. The modern Chinese emperor. He's a godhead, with untold power, constrained by court politics, succeeded purely by blood, supported by ministers who tell him what to say, do, feel. In reward for doing what the ministers tell him (who actually run the country), Kim gets booze, pussy, great living conditions, devotions and worship of the population. His ministers bow and scrape to him even though they still have power over him. Go watch the movie The Last Emperor, that might unfuck you.

Unless of course you believe the third son of Kim Jung Il, completely untried, who had a whopping two years of preparation to becoming head of state, is some sort of political prodigy even though his upbringing and preparation did not include ANYTHING to prep him for holding any office, let alone the highest. Mind you, in comparison, his father Kim Jung Il served as Kim Il Sung's right hand man for fucking DECADES before finally assuming the throne at the ripe age of 56 years old. And how old was the pudgy inexperienced naive Kim Jung Un when he took over? 26 years old. And by that point he couldn't exactly follow dad around to learn from him, since dad was bedridden for years before he died. So where did he learn? He didn't. He just does what the OGD tell him to do, say what they tell him to say. Hell, the nuclear script he's following right now was written by his father, who CREATED THE OGD JUST FOR THIS PURPOSE. Secure the succession, get nukes to permanently protect the People's Democratic Republic of North Korea.

The one thing they didn't count on was Donald Trump tossing a stick into their spokes.

They need to finish then field the SM-3 Block IIA. The 21" booster adds a lot of additional capability.

Good points to bring up.

First, their exploits into Vietnam were as fucked up as you said. Which is why they completely reformed their army afterwards, especially since they've been flush with cash as being a primary economic industrial giant, their military is actually decent now.

Second, while its possible they could invade NK, why would they? What would be the political objective? What would be the strategy? Fight a ground campaign through the rugged shitty mountained of North Korea until they reach Pyongyang and then forceable replace Kim Jung Un? Why bother? What does that accomplish? War between China and NK isn't really a factor right now.

By overt force, I was referring to what China is capable of doing to NK short of war. I'm talking political power. Diplomacy.

The best overt means China has to halt the NK nuclear program, per the desires of the USA, is to halt the flow of oil to NK (of which NK is nearly utterly reliant), and to halt the purchasing of NK goods, which China was basically doing for the sake of charity (China is super rich in coal and iron, they only buy NK shit because it helps the NK govt out and comes out to chump change, they buy goodwill when they buy NK coal and iron, etc). They don't need to attack anything, these two things will destroy NK as badly as what proponents for a large scale conventional bombing campaign could possibly dream of. That's the overt/open method of dealing with NK that everyone can see. Its blatant that is what the goal is. And its a very powerful one, and surprising since few thought China would actually turn on NK and yet they apparently did. (which is why I give cudos to Trump for even being able to pull it off briefly).

However, internally, behind closed doors, away from the public, covertly, China can still influence Kim's regime. HOWEVER, China doesn't have nearly as much influence as many think they do. All the people peddling the "NK is just a puppet of China" diatribe simply don't know fuck all about the internal politics of Kim's regime. Back in 2013 Kim Jung Un blatantly executed his own uncle, the most powerful minister in the land for a decade plus, who was the ringleader of the Pro-China faction, just to remove the stain of Chinese influence. That was a message to China, Stay the fuck out of our business.

But that doesn't mean those within the Chinese MSS or ministry of foreign affairs don't have the cell phone numbers or email addresses of various NK ministry officials that they can have offline chats with. Surely they do, that's what intelligence services exist for. their connection with the NK didn't end with Jang Song Thaek's death, merely their influence with Kim. The issue is those ministers and Army underlings that the Chinese can influence don't have the power of their own to influence Kim, as that power rests solely on the OGD, who are some seriously bad dudes, like the SS of North Korea. But even though those ministers don't have influence right now, they will gain more influence and power as the plan orchestrated by the OGD faction blows up in their face (which is happening how).

That's a good line.