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Link Posted: 9/27/2023 6:13:40 PM EDT
[#1]
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Quoted:

I am normally pessimistic, but dammit the first two weeks had me. I was thinking, yeah, this is the formula. An efficient, ball control offense, which Dak could run that in his sleep, and make the occasional play. And a shut down defense. Meh. I am retarded.
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Thanks, but I think a even more important aspect of it is being able to judge your team objectively.  It seems most fans are either delusionally optimistic ("we look good in September, Super Bowl, here we come") or delusionally pessimistic ("our statistically top 10 QB hasn't gotten us to the Super Bowl therefore he sucks and we need to cut him").

Here is my advice: go into every game assuming they will lose.  If they lose: you were expecting it.  If they win: it's a pleasant surprise.

Another piece of advice: Always bet against the Cowboys in the Divisional.  I seriously didn't spend so much as a minute researching last season's game and just blindly bet on the 49ers.  

I am normally pessimistic, but dammit the first two weeks had me. I was thinking, yeah, this is the formula. An efficient, ball control offense, which Dak could run that in his sleep, and make the occasional play. And a shut down defense. Meh. I am retarded.


Link Posted: 9/27/2023 6:17:12 PM EDT
[#2]
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Quoted:

Did you watch the game?  That INT was tipped by at least two different players before the DB caught it.
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And it will always be credited to Cousins.

Why I always waited so eagerly for Football Outsiders annual adjusted interceptions list.

Now Football Outsiders is dead. Completely. I hope someone else picks it up carrying forward.
Link Posted: 9/27/2023 6:17:39 PM EDT
[#3]
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Im gonna say chicago
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Haven't watched Chicago play, huh?

They're horrible.  Beyond bad.  Arizona is TWICE the team that Chicago is.

Link Posted: 9/27/2023 6:18:39 PM EDT
[#4]
Putting some more blame on Zach Wilson.

The Patriots generated pressure on 61.5% of the Jets dropbacks. Their highest rate in the last 5 years.
Zach Wilson had the 3rd highest average time to throw in the entire NFL last week.
Link Posted: 9/27/2023 6:24:23 PM EDT
[#5]
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Quoted:

I imagine so. 1st and goal, down 4 points, game on the line, and you choke it away...

Of course, this will be another notch in Cousins' hat for the crumble under pressure/never wins the big game crowd. But he still threw for 350 and 3 TDs BEFORE he choked the game away. It should have been enough to win.

Also... Even though they won the game, can we add this game to the growing list of reasons why Staley should be fired? You are winning by 4, less than 2 minutes left in the game, and you go for it on 4th and 1 from your OWN 24 yard line? Fuck that dude. Chargers should have lost another close game due to their coach.
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I told my buddies watching the game the Vikings should have kicked the FG when on the GL with 2:49 and 2 TO's remaining.
Kick the 3, be down by 2, kick it off, play D, burn your TO's if necessary and try to get in position to kick a GW FG.

Nope, we go for it on the GL and get stuffed.  Then the Chargers do the dumbest thing ever and go for it deep inside their own territory on 4th down.  

When we were close to scoring again, I said "it would be nice to kick a FG now wouldn't it?".

Stupid, stupid, stupid coaching on both sides of the ball in that game.
Link Posted: 9/27/2023 6:27:39 PM EDT
[#6]
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Quoted:
And it will always be credited to Cousins.

Why I always waited so eagerly for Football Outsiders annual adjusted interceptions list.

Now Football Outsiders is dead. Completely. I hope someone else picks it up carrying forward.
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Quoted:

Did you watch the game?  That INT was tipped by at least two different players before the DB caught it.
And it will always be credited to Cousins.

Why I always waited so eagerly for Football Outsiders annual adjusted interceptions list.

Now Football Outsiders is dead. Completely. I hope someone else picks it up carrying forward.

Let's leave trashing QBs for tipped (tipped multiple times, no less) INTs to the talking heads, shall we?


Link Posted: 9/27/2023 6:31:33 PM EDT
[#7]
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Quoted:


They’re going 0-17. I’ve watched some bad Bears teams over the years. This team is making Mel Tucker’s D look competent.
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Quoted:

Im gonna say chicago


They’re going 0-17. I’ve watched some bad Bears teams over the years. This team is making Mel Tucker’s D look competent.


Hey, Mel is available again!

Link Posted: 9/27/2023 6:52:48 PM EDT
[#8]
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Quoted:

They're going 0-17. I've watched some bad Bears teams over the years.
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Dead last in total team DVOA:
32: Bears -59.0%
31: Giants -52.8%
30: Raiders -39.0%

31st in Offensive DVOA:
32: Jets -39.3%
31: Bears -37.2%
30: Titans -30.6%

30th in Defensive DVOA (positive is bad on this one):
32: Broncos 39.8%
31: Giants 22.9%
30: Bears 22.5%

To be bottom 3 in both offense and defense is quite outstanding on the shit scale. Teams are rarely so universally bad on both sides of the ball. Looking back, no team finished bottom 3 in both in the last 3 seasons. I would look back further than that, but Football Outsiders shutting down made that more difficult, since they invented it and used to host all the older stats for it.
Link Posted: 9/27/2023 7:02:13 PM EDT
[#9]
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Quoted:
Dead last in total team DVOA:
32: Bears -59.0%
31: Giants -52.8%
30: Raiders -39.0%

31st in Offensive DVOA:
32: Jets -39.3%
31: Bears -37.2%
30: Titans -30.6%

30th in Defensive DVOA (positive is bad on this one):
32: Broncos 39.8%
31: Giants 22.9%
30: Bears 22.5%

To be bottom 3 in both offense and defense is quite outstanding on the shit scale. Teams are rarely so universally bad on both sides of the ball. Looking back, no team finished bottom 3 in both in the last 3 seasons. I would look back further than that, but Football Outsiders shutting down made that more difficult, since they invented it and used to host all the older stats for it.
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Damn, and they paid Tremaine Edmunds 4/$72M for that? I guess he got paid at least
Link Posted: 9/27/2023 7:10:29 PM EDT
[#10]
Link Posted: 9/27/2023 7:14:58 PM EDT
[#11]
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Quoted:
so who is gonna win the DEN - CHI game?
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Hopefully Denver.
With Peyton on the sidelines in a cage wearing a strait jacket and a ball gag stuffed in his mouth.
Link Posted: 9/27/2023 7:22:15 PM EDT
[#12]
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Quoted:

Hopefully Denver.
With Peyton on the sidelines in a cage wearing a strait jacket and a ball gag stuffed in his mouth.
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Quoted:
so who is gonna win the DEN - CHI game?

Hopefully Denver.
With Peyton on the sidelines in a cage wearing a strait jacket and a ball gag stuffed in his mouth.


As a dolphins fan. I hope Denver wins.

Anyone fucked in the ass that bad deserves something good after.
Link Posted: 9/27/2023 7:46:04 PM EDT
[#13]
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Quoted:

I hope Denver wins. Anyone fucked in the ass that bad deserves something good after.
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What about the Bears losing 41-10? Chiefs put in Gabbert in the 3rd quarter while up 41-0. They were beating the Bears worse than the Dolphins the Broncos at that time. Do the Bears not deserve something good!?

Besides just preferring the Bears win, I would love to continue to see Sean Payton not have good things happen for him. Dude walked into Denver like he was the next coming of Christ and talked so much shit about last year's team and coaching and even players.

If he could now lose to the Bears (badly preferred)...


Link Posted: 9/27/2023 7:49:20 PM EDT
[#14]
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Quoted:
What about the Bears losing 41-10?
Chiefs put in Gabbert in the 3rd quarter while up 41-0.
Do the Bears not deserve something good!?

Besides just preferring the Bears win, I would love to continue to see Sean Payton not have good things happen for him. Dude walked into Denver like he was the next coming of Christ and talked so much shit about last year's team and coaching and even players.

If he could now lose to the Bears (badly preferred)...

https://media.tenor.com/WIBlOaG1eK8AAAAC/south-park-craig.gif
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Quoted:
Quoted:

I hope Denver wins. Anyone fucked in the ass that bad deserves something good after.
What about the Bears losing 41-10?
Chiefs put in Gabbert in the 3rd quarter while up 41-0.
Do the Bears not deserve something good!?

Besides just preferring the Bears win, I would love to continue to see Sean Payton not have good things happen for him. Dude walked into Denver like he was the next coming of Christ and talked so much shit about last year's team and coaching and even players.

If he could now lose to the Bears (badly preferred)...

https://media.tenor.com/WIBlOaG1eK8AAAAC/south-park-craig.gif


41-10 is better than 70-20.
Even though I hate Chicago as a city. I’ve always had a soft spot for the Bears. But given last week. I hope Denver wins.
I hope the bears get some good wins in the season. But this week. I hope Denver wins.
Link Posted: 9/27/2023 7:50:02 PM EDT
[#15]
Winston 1st and Burrow last... Just as we all expected.


Link Posted: 9/27/2023 7:51:04 PM EDT
[#16]
So So I start David Montgomery for tomorrow or Derrick Henry for the weekend?
Link Posted: 9/27/2023 8:01:41 PM EDT
[#17]
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Quoted:
So So I start David Montgomery for tomorrow or Derrick Henry for the weekend?
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I like to pick my RBs based on guaranteed workload. Which is unquestionably Henry in this case. Montgomery, if he even starts, will likely split substantial time with Gibbs still.
Link Posted: 9/27/2023 8:54:42 PM EDT
[#18]
Desmond Ridder leads the league in turnover worthy plays through 3 games (7).
He does so while 23 other quarterbacks have more pass attempts.

The Lions defense straight dropped multiple interceptions last week.
The fact that he only has 1 INT so far is a blessing/lucky and not sustainable with his current play.

Falcons used the last three drafts to take a TE, WR and RB in the 1st round.
Using a 3rd round draft pick for a QB, in the worst QB draft class in YEARS, isn't going to cut it. They need to find themselves a QB before they completely waste their offense's rookie contract years.

Edit: His PFF grade is 40.2, ranked 34/34.
Link Posted: 9/27/2023 8:56:41 PM EDT
[#19]
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I'd guess the Barry Sanders era Lions.
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I'd bet longer than that. I think maybe back to the post-Lombardi era when all their All Pro players retired? Either the Phil Bengtson or Dan Devine era? Packer talent was way, way down during those coaches' tenures. Devine did get them back to respectable, IMO.

Or maybe during Starr's tenure as coach?
Link Posted: 9/27/2023 9:02:07 PM EDT
[#20]
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I'd bet longer than that.
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I was thinking in my head that it wouldn't be based on Lions talent, but when the last time the Packers were bad (pre-Favre). So late 1980's/early 90's? Would be early in Sanders career.

I even went and pulled up the Lions 1993 season when they won the division and went to the playoffs. The Packers were still favored by 3.5 at home.

Edit: I might have to go manually and look these up one at a time. I'm stuck doing a double at work, I have the time.
Link Posted: 9/27/2023 9:09:25 PM EDT
[#21]
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Quoted:
What about the Bears losing 41-10? Chiefs put in Gabbert in the 3rd quarter while up 41-0. They were beating the Bears worse than the Dolphins the Broncos at that time. Do the Bears not deserve something good!?

Besides just preferring the Bears win, I would love to continue to see Sean Payton not have good things happen for him. Dude walked into Denver like he was the next coming of Christ and talked so much shit about last year's team and coaching and even players.

If he could now lose to the Bears (badly preferred)...

https://media.tenor.com/WIBlOaG1eK8AAAAC/south-park-craig.gif
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Quoted:
Quoted:

I hope Denver wins. Anyone fucked in the ass that bad deserves something good after.
What about the Bears losing 41-10? Chiefs put in Gabbert in the 3rd quarter while up 41-0. They were beating the Bears worse than the Dolphins the Broncos at that time. Do the Bears not deserve something good!?

Besides just preferring the Bears win, I would love to continue to see Sean Payton not have good things happen for him. Dude walked into Denver like he was the next coming of Christ and talked so much shit about last year's team and coaching and even players.

If he could now lose to the Bears (badly preferred)...

https://media.tenor.com/WIBlOaG1eK8AAAAC/south-park-craig.gif

Both him and Wilson came into Denver like they were hot shit and set the expectations pretty high.

Both have shit the bed since.

Even as a rival NFCN fan I'd rather see the Bears get a win out of this game.
Link Posted: 9/27/2023 9:27:20 PM EDT
[#22]
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I hear you, but, when every team in the conference has made the NFC championship since you have, except for Washington and Detroit, well.

You are one of the smarter Cowboys fans. When they lose you console yourself with the stacks of cash you won betting against them

I am delusional, and was buying into the hype
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Arbitrary depth of a playoff run is a shitty metric. I’m with HK on that you either win or you don’t. The difference in 7th or 4th place isn’t quantifiable in my opinion.
Link Posted: 9/27/2023 9:29:34 PM EDT
[#23]
Found it. The Erik Kramer led Detroit Lions were favored by 3 points over the Mike Tomczak Packers in Green Bay on December 15th 1991. It was 10 degrees at kick off. The Packers outgained the Lions 367 to 207. The Packers had 160 yards rushing. Both teams had 2 turnovers. But the Lions won 21-17. Covered the spread by 1.

The Lions managed to win on Special Teams. A story as old as the Packers themselves. Mel Gray returned a 78 yard punt for a Lions TD in the 4th quarter to put the game out of reach for the Packers.

Edit: The Lions had 143 yards on 6 returns (23.8 avg), the Packers had 33 on 7 (4.7 avg).
Link Posted: 9/27/2023 9:48:56 PM EDT
[#24]
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I imagine so. 1st and goal, down 4 points, game on the line, and you choke it away...

Of course, this will be another notch in Cousins' hat for the crumble under pressure/never wins the big game crowd. But he still threw for 350 and 3 TDs BEFORE he choked the game away. It should have been enough to win.

Also... Even though they won the game, can we add this game to the growing list of reasons why Staley should be fired? You are winning by 4, less than 2 minutes left in the game, and you go for it on 4th and 1 from your OWN 24 yard line? Fuck that dude. Chargers should have lost another close game due to their coach.
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Staley chose correctly.





Most punt/go decisions have a win probability difference of less than 5%. These two models showing that much of a spread is a VERY strong GO.

The plot twist is, I'm not sure if these account for the fact that LAC was in that game with a top 5 offense and a bottom 5 defense. That could make the math favoring a go decision even stronger.
Link Posted: 9/27/2023 10:37:35 PM EDT
[#25]
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Certainly more so than the Chiefs.  I mean that team doesn't even a prayer of winning the AFC, nevermind the Super Bowl.  
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Attachment Attached File

Link Posted: 9/27/2023 10:39:54 PM EDT
[#26]
OP - I love your monday summaries, but how about holding these until Tuesday so that MNF's games are included in those?
Link Posted: 9/27/2023 10:48:39 PM EDT
[#27]
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Quoted:

Staley chose correctly.
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Insane analytic bible thumpers.

In no world, will I ever agree, that when you are leading by 4, on your own ~25 yard line, with LESS than 2 minutes left in the game, with your opponent having no timeouts, that anything other than a punt is the correct decision.

Even in his own post, with numbers that I don't believe based on historical results on stathead, he says that a conversion attempt would increase their Win Probability by LESS than 10%. A failure to convert results in a decline down to 59% (his numbers, I don't believe it). That's a loss of more than 20% WP vs punting, in his algorithm.

Meanwhile, stathead says that in the last 10 years, on 4th and 1, in the 4th quarter of all games, not goal to go, teams have converted 511 of 1,384 attempts. That's a 36.9% conversion rate... That's not predictions. That's actual numbers of how many 4th and 1's resulted in a 1st down (run, pass or penalty).

That's less than a coin flip man. LESS than a coin flip to increase your WP by less than 10% vs dropping to a 50/50 game on failure? Kick the ball. The numbers are BS. He was bailed out on a stupid decision.
Link Posted: 9/27/2023 11:08:08 PM EDT
[#28]
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Haven't watched Chicago play, huh?

They're horrible.  Beyond bad.  Arizona is TWICE the team that Chicago is.

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I'm not going to watch as I have important things to do... l was just taking a guess
Link Posted: 9/28/2023 7:11:12 AM EDT
[#29]
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And there is no shortage of people who would want to bang her if they had the opportunity just so they could say they did. The biggest buck isn't going to have the best meat, but there's more thrill to taking it and then you get to brag about it with your buddies.
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Hell yes I would bang Oprah. And I would come here and brag about it
Link Posted: 9/28/2023 7:11:58 AM EDT
[#30]
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honestly it may still turn out that way, and we'll probably make the playoffs and lose in the divisional round


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Yeah, I can see it going like that.
Link Posted: 9/28/2023 7:13:59 AM EDT
[#31]
Link Posted: 9/28/2023 7:17:21 AM EDT
[#32]
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Quoted:


Arbitrary depth of a playoff run is a shitty metric. I’m with HK on that you either win or you don’t. The difference in 7th or 4th place isn’t quantifiable in my opinion.
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You don't think a team making progress, no playoffs, then playoffs, is important? Then making playoffs, and making a deep playoff run?

It's a binary choice, you either won the super bowl, or you didn't? Can't say I agree with that.
Link Posted: 9/28/2023 10:29:19 AM EDT
[#33]
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Quoted:
Insane analytic bible thumpers.

In no world, will I ever agree, that when you are leading by 4, on your own ~25 yard line, with LESS than 2 minutes left in the game, with your opponent having no timeouts, that anything other than a punt is the correct decision.

Even in his own post, with numbers that I don't believe based on historical results on stathead, he says that a conversion attempt would increase their Win Probability by LESS than 10%. A failure to convert results in a decline down to 59% (his numbers, I don't believe it). That's a loss of more than 20% WP vs punting, in his algorithm.

Meanwhile, stathead says that in the last 10 years, on 4th and 1, in the 4th quarter of all games, not goal to go, teams have converted 511 of 1,384 attempts. That's a 36.9% conversion rate... That's not predictions. That's actual numbers of how many 4th and 1's resulted in a 1st down (run, pass or penalty).

That's less than a coin flip man. LESS than a coin flip to increase your WP by less than 10% vs dropping to a 50/50 game on failure? Kick the ball. The numbers are BS. He was bailed out on a stupid decision.
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Quoted:
Quoted:

Staley chose correctly.
Insane analytic bible thumpers.

In no world, will I ever agree, that when you are leading by 4, on your own ~25 yard line, with LESS than 2 minutes left in the game, with your opponent having no timeouts, that anything other than a punt is the correct decision.

Even in his own post, with numbers that I don't believe based on historical results on stathead, he says that a conversion attempt would increase their Win Probability by LESS than 10%. A failure to convert results in a decline down to 59% (his numbers, I don't believe it). That's a loss of more than 20% WP vs punting, in his algorithm.

Meanwhile, stathead says that in the last 10 years, on 4th and 1, in the 4th quarter of all games, not goal to go, teams have converted 511 of 1,384 attempts. That's a 36.9% conversion rate... That's not predictions. That's actual numbers of how many 4th and 1's resulted in a 1st down (run, pass or penalty).

That's less than a coin flip man. LESS than a coin flip to increase your WP by less than 10% vs dropping to a 50/50 game on failure? Kick the ball. The numbers are BS. He was bailed out on a stupid decision.


And yet, two different models say you're wrong, and I'd argue common sense does too.

You have two options:

You can ask your excellent offense with a top 5 QB to pick up ONE YARD against a mediocre defense to ice the game. Game over, you win.

Or...

You can deliberately give possession to the other team (relying on a sketchy ST unit to not screw it up) and then ask your defense which has been quite bad this season to survive 60-70 yards and ~1:45 against an offense featuring *checks notes* JUSTIN F'ING JEFFERSON (the best WR in the entire NFL and 2022 OPOY for a reason), a very good TE, and one of the most underrated QBs in the league.

If you want to throw shade and ask questions, we should be asking why Kellen Moore took the ball away from a top 5 QB and gave it to a backup RB in that situation.
Link Posted: 9/28/2023 11:06:54 AM EDT
[#34]
Chandler Jones is having a full breakdown on social media live this morning.

Calling for McDaniels to be fired. Saying Aaron Hernandez's death wasn't a suicide. Breaking down into tears out of nowhere. Confronting his neighbor. Called McDaniels and Davis "slave masters".

He's going to go back on a hold in another facility at this rate.

Edit: Here's the link to his 25 minute live session on Twitter, before he deletes it. https://twitter.com/chanjones55/status/1707377553361772585

"Oh, y'all didn't know what Josh McDaniels really did to Aaron Hernandez? If y'all don't know what really happened with Aaron Hernandez ... y'all thought Aaron Hernandez killed himself in jail? Y'all thought my n***a chico killed himself in jail?"

He mentioned knowing government secrets, stuff about the Illuminati and ISIS. There's also dozens of Twitter posts to go with it.

Double Edit: Some of the Tweets in text in case they all get deleted again. There's around 50 of them since late yesterday. So not posting them all.
Click To View Spoiler
Link Posted: 9/28/2023 11:12:55 AM EDT
[#35]
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Quoted:
Just checking in on some of Fields' statistics compared to the last two seasons. Figure this might help confirm/deny what Kyle is saying above.

Comp % is basically the same (within 2.5%)
On Target % is basicallythe same (within 2.5%)
Bad Throw % is basically the same (within 2%)
Success % is basically the same (within 2.5%)
Pocket Time is basically the same (within 0.2 seconds)
Pressure % is basically the same (within 2%)
Sack % is actually down somehow

Trying to figure out what is different... Oh... I found it!

Their play action play percentage is half... HALF... what it was last season. Down from 26% to 13%.
Combined with that, their rushing attempts have dropped from 56% to 41%.
Intended air yards per attempt are down 25-30% versus his previous two seasons.

"I'm not saying Fields is playing phenomenal and is blameless but..." It seems there's definitely room to put that "but" in there. Statistically, Fields throwing ability doesn't seem to have declined/regressed. We have seen some hesitation/bad looks on Fields part, but the play calling definitely has also changed, and so far, not for the better.
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So it's "the Bears still suck" vs "Fields still sucks"?

Tomato tahmahto
Link Posted: 9/28/2023 11:28:18 AM EDT
[#36]
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If you want to throw shade and ask questions, we should be asking why Kellen Moore took the ball away from a top 5 QB and gave it to a backup RB in that situation.
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This is where I'm at. I don't mind giving your guys the opportunity to go win it, but give it to your playmaker.
Link Posted: 9/28/2023 11:32:44 AM EDT
[#37]
Link Posted: 9/28/2023 11:56:04 AM EDT
[#38]
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Quoted:


This is where I'm at. I don't mind giving your guys the opportunity to go win it, but give it to your playmaker.
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Quoted:

If you want to throw shade and ask questions, we should be asking why Kellen Moore took the ball away from a top 5 QB and gave it to a backup RB in that situation.


This is where I'm at. I don't mind giving your guys the opportunity to go win it, but give it to your playmaker.


The play design wasn't very good, either.

The RB is 5 yards back, and the process of snapping the ball to Herbert, handing off to the RB, and the RB getting up to the line seems to take a pretty long time. It's probably only 2-2.5s, but it just feels slow watching it, and by the time the RB gets up there, there's Vikings behind the OL.
Link Posted: 9/28/2023 12:03:33 PM EDT
[#39]
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The play design wasn't very good, either.
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I still don't understand why the RB going off center is the most called play on 4th and 1 when defenses are basically in stacked goal line. If you need one yard, and everyone knows you need one yard, then you need movement away from the LOS. Either run it outside or use play action to set up a quick pass.

I'm going to go pull the stats on 4th and 1 run vs pass. BRB.

Edit: Last 10 years, 4th and 1, 4th quarter, run vs pass conversion, any game score, any field position.
Runs off center/off guard (inside): 67.8%
Runs off tackle/end (outside): 71.4%
Short pass (left, right and middle): 59.4%

I am honestly surprised at how high the center/off guard conversion is. I feel like it fails almost every time I see someone do it. I wish I could pull out and see how many of those are RB vs QB sneak, but it doesn't let me filter that far unfortunately.
Link Posted: 9/28/2023 12:13:31 PM EDT
[#40]
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Quoted:
I still don't understand why the RB going off center is the most called play on 4th and 1 when defenses are basically in stacked goal line. If you need one yard, and everyone knows you need one yard, then you need movement away from the LOS. Either run it outside or use play action to set up a quick pass.

I'm going to go pull the stats on 4th and 1 run vs pass. BRB.
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Quoted:

The play design wasn't very good, either.
I still don't understand why the RB going off center is the most called play on 4th and 1 when defenses are basically in stacked goal line. If you need one yard, and everyone knows you need one yard, then you need movement away from the LOS. Either run it outside or use play action to set up a quick pass.

I'm going to go pull the stats on 4th and 1 run vs pass. BRB.


Even if you want to keep it vanilla and keep it on the ground, using your 6'6" QB to run a QB sneak seems like a pretty good idea.

The Vikings had 7 guys on the line for that play, but the guys on the second level were 2-3 yards back. Getting enough push to get Herbert over the line after a quick snap seems way more likely in that scenario than the slow handoff they did instead.

Anecdotally, it feels like the Chiefs have had bad luck trying to run to the outside on 3rd & 1 or 4th & 1, but I'm not sure how much of that is slow RBs like CEH, weak blocks, or gimmicky plays that get too complicated.
Link Posted: 9/28/2023 12:35:03 PM EDT
[#41]
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Even if you want to keep it vanilla and keep it on the ground, using your 6'6" QB to run a QB sneak seems like a pretty good idea.
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Herbert, 4th and 1, rushing: 8 of 9 on his career, 88.9%

Edit: For fun, Brady, total career, 3rd and 1 & 4th and 1, regular and post season: 123 of 140, 87.9%
Link Posted: 9/28/2023 12:45:38 PM EDT
[#42]
This guy is an idiot

Well, NBC Sports' Chris Simms, no stranger to controversy, chimed in from the side of the aisle who do not feel that the unique quarterback sneak should be legal because of the alleged advantage that the runner gets with a favorable block in the back.

Simms went as far on-air to suggest that opposing teams should try to, metaphorically speaking, "kill the quarterback" to stop the "tush push."

"If I was a defensive coach, I'd be going, 'Go headhunting on the quarterback here. Go ahead. Let 'em have it. Dive over. Go crazy. Try to kill the quarterback.' That's what I would do," Simms said.

He quickly pulled back on his rhetoric (amid backtracking from co-host Mike Florio) by saying he didn't actually mean they should literally kill the quarterback on a "tush push," as opposed to "[making] him pay" and "think twice about doing it."

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https://ftw.usatoday.com/lists/chris-simms-horrible-eagles-tush-push-take-nfl-fan-reactions
Link Posted: 9/28/2023 12:47:50 PM EDT
[#43]
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He acts like those linebackers aren't already throwing their bodies into any open gap as hard as they can to begin with? It's not like these defensive fronts aren't fucking trying to stop it already. Simms is just around to say stupid shit to get the views/clicks up.
Link Posted: 9/28/2023 12:49:49 PM EDT
[#44]
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He saw Mike Florios retarded take on Brock Purdy and couldn't stand being one upped.  
Link Posted: 9/28/2023 12:56:38 PM EDT
[#45]
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Desmond Ridder leads the league in turnover worthy plays through 3 games (7).
He does so while 23 other quarterbacks have more pass attempts.

The Lions defense straight dropped multiple interceptions last week.
The fact that he only has 1 INT so far is a blessing/lucky and not sustainable with his current play.

Falcons used the last three drafts to take a TE, WR and RB in the 1st round.
Using a 3rd round draft pick for a QB, in the worst QB draft class in YEARS, isn't going to cut it. They need to find themselves a QB before they completely waste their offense's rookie contract years.

Edit: His PFF grade is 40.2, ranked 34/34.
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Already a lot of calls for Heinicke to step in, I bet he gets more play time than he expected if Ridder doesn't improve quickly. The whole team looked terrible against Detroit though.
Link Posted: 9/28/2023 1:13:40 PM EDT
[#46]
JC Jackson's response when asked about his healthy benching last weekend:

"I don't know, what else do they expect me to do? I told coach (Brandon Staley) what else do you expect me to do? I've been doing everything. I came back from my injury pretty fast. I've been putting in extra work after practice, even in meeting rooms. The DBs every Friday we all meet to do extra film and being a good teammate, so I don't know what it is. I'm still kind of confused and still don't have answers to why I'm getting treated like this."

Maybe, and I'm just spit balling here, don't skip out on your scheduled court appearance for probation violation directly resulting in having a warrant issued for your arrest just before the weekend? Huh? Try that.
Link Posted: 9/28/2023 1:39:37 PM EDT
[#47]
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Quoted:
JC Jackson's response when asked about his healthy benching last weekend:

"I don't know, what else do they expect me to do? I told coach (Brandon Staley) what else do you expect me to do? I've been doing everything. I came back from my injury pretty fast. I've been putting in extra work after practice, even in meeting rooms. The DBs every Friday we all meet to do extra film and being a good teammate, so I don't know what it is. I'm still kind of confused and still don't have answers to why I'm getting treated like this."

Maybe, and I'm just spit balling here, don't skip out on your scheduled court appearance for probation violation directly resulting in having a warrant issued for your arrest just before the weekend? Huh? Try that.
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Responsibility is racist.
Link Posted: 9/28/2023 2:25:27 PM EDT
[#48]



I mean he is pretty damn deserving of a nuggie. Great work if true
Link Posted: 9/28/2023 2:30:54 PM EDT
[#49]
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Quoted:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F7FH9s4WYAANq42?format=jpg&name=small

I mean he is pretty damn deserving of a nuggie. Great work if true
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The only guy that can out-Trump Trump on horrible hair
Link Posted: 9/28/2023 2:43:00 PM EDT
[#50]

I'm off to NFL Penalties to analyze! BRB.

Week 1: Cardinals vs Washington, Alan Eck, 9 against for 122 yards
Week 2: Cardinals vs Giants, Land Clark, 8 against for 57 yards
Week 3: Cardinals vs Dallas, Alex Kemp, 8 against for 69 yards

Alan Eck: #7 in called penalties, #8 in confirmed penalties, #8 in dismissed penalties, #8 in penalty yards
Land Clark: #10 in called penalties, #7 in confirmed penalties, #14 in dismissed penalties, #7 in penalty yards
Alex Kemp: #1 in called penalties, #1 in confirmed penalties, #1 in dismissed penalties, #3 in penalty yards

So, they had one game under the most flag happy crew in the NFL (thru 3 weeks), but that crew did not flag the Cardinals more than the other two crews. The other two crews are right in the middle of all officials for penalty calls. This leads me to believe that the Cardinals deserved their penalties and their games are not being over officiated.

Reviewing their opponents to keep things even.

Week 1: Washington, 8 against for 69 yards
Week 2: Giants, 9 against for 75 yards
Week 3: Dallas, 13 against for 107 yards

Now... This is getting more interesting. For all 3 of these teams, their games vs the Cardinals resulted in their highest penalty count totals of the season. It was also the highest penalty count game of the season for all three of the individual crews:

Alan Eck: 17 penalties in Cardinals Washington game. 11 in his next, 9 in his 3rd.
Land Clark: 17 penalties in Cardinals Giants game. 14 in his next, 8th in his 3rd.
Alex Kemp: 21 penalties in Cardinals Dallas game. 17 in his next, 13 in his 3rd.

So... The Cardinals appear to have been consistently enforced as a bad penalty team, but for some reason their opponents have ALL had their worst penalty game against the Cardinals, with three different crews... That is very interesting.

Edit: @Hunter-Killer I know you'll be interested in this as well.

Another Edit: These 3 games ranked 1st (Dallas), 8th (Washington) and 13th (Giants) for the most flags thrown in a single game so far this season (out of 48 total games).
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