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Posted: 9/3/2017 8:05:49 PM EST
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I'd put money on a MB landfall. If she shifts a bit north, landfall may be at....Landfall.  
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Posted: 9/3/2017 8:06:12 PM EST
[#2]
Meh, give it till Tuesday before checking. It's still early and every model with just cause stress
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Posted: 9/3/2017 8:11:23 PM EST
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Meh, give it till Tuesday before checking. It's still early and every model with just cause stress 
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Posted: 9/3/2017 8:12:21 PM EST
[#4]
I'm starting my Santeria
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Posted: 9/3/2017 8:12:23 PM EST
[#5]
Tropical Tidbit for Sunday Evening, September 3rd, 2017
 Tropical Tidbit for Sunday Evening, September 3rd, 2017 |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 8:14:40 PM EST
[#6]
Damn.....
I bought a second generator today just because I have a bad feeling about this Fucker. There were only a few generators at Lowe's so I'm not the only one not waiting until Wednesday to prepare. I'm west of D.C. 15 miles and my house is on a hill. Almost always hurricains are tropical storms by the time they reach here, but if this fucker is a 5 or 6 when it hits, It could still fuck everything good. I filled all my gas cans. Padded my water supply. I'm stocked well. And urging friends to be prepared. |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 8:19:02 PM EST
[#7]
Quote History |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 8:20:00 PM EST
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I have a bad feeling about this one. I am going to start preparing to bug out from central Florida tomorrow. I'm ready to sit for a cat 2 or maybe 3 but not for a 4 or 5. |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 8:21:11 PM EST
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I'm having similar discussions with my wife. I've got family west of RIC and might be invading for a few days if it's going to be that bad. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Luckily, that storm hit on a weekend. If it had hit during the work week, a lot of people might have been stranded at where they work. I met a guy in the Reno airport that was a Navy dude here. He'd gotten his house flooded. He'd asked a friend of his to get him out but the guy couldn't get there even with a jacked up truck. I'm not going to panic but if it looks like a Cat 4 or 5 is going to hit here, we're bugging out. If not, we're probably gonna be OK. |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 8:24:49 PM EST
[#10]
Told Mrs. Miami_JBT that she goes out to a safe zone with the pups while I ride out the storm if it hits Tally.
Hopefully we won't get it. But I think FL is gonna get smacked. |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 8:28:13 PM EST
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Told Mrs. Miami_JBT that she goes out to a safe zone with the pups while I ride out the storm if it hits Tally. Hopefully we won't get it. But I think FL is gonna get smacked. There's a chance it hits Florida, but the way things sit now I'd hazard a guess that it skirts the Florida coast much like Matthew did and then either makes landfall further north or heads back out to sea. |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 8:29:16 PM EST
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Tropical Tidbit for Sunday Evening, September 3rd, 2017  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XgUYv18ew4 |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 8:32:40 PM EST
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
thanks for posting this Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Tropical Tidbit for Sunday Evening, September 3rd, 2017 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XgUYv18ew4 |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 8:37:11 PM EST
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Stay turned. Seeing out to sea still in play feels good. But GFS has been consistently murdering the Carolinas and the Euro control model basically trashes most of the Atlantic coast http://i.imgur.com/ujfq2iM.gif For every good model run there is a pants shittingly bad one. No way of knowing which it will be (or none of them) 
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Posted: 9/3/2017 8:38:18 PM EST
[#15]
https://www.amazon.com/WaterBOB-Emergency-Drinking-Storage-Gallons/dp/B001AXLUX2/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1504489026&sr=8-1&keywords=waterbob
best $25 you can invest in right now |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 8:41:22 PM EST
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Posted: 9/3/2017 8:49:32 PM EST
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
https://www.amazon.com/WaterBOB-Emergency-Drinking-Storage-Gallons/dp/B001AXLUX2/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1504489026&sr=8-1&keywords=waterbob best $25 you can invest in right now |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 8:50:30 PM EST
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
https://www.amazon.com/WaterBOB-Emergency-Drinking-Storage-Gallons/dp/B001AXLUX2/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1504489026&sr=8-1&keywords=waterbob best $25 you can invest in right now You'd be looking at 200+ mph sustained winds. An EF5 tornado has 200+ mph winds...but they're not sustained winds. This storm could be like an EF5 tornado that keeps blowing >200mph for a couple hours...or more. I might suggest you skip the prep stuff and use that $25.00 to buy gasoline to un-ass the area. |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 8:51:52 PM EST
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
That same $25 get me 10 gallons of gas and gets me 250 miles away from the coast. 
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Posted: 9/3/2017 8:51:56 PM EST
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
https://www.amazon.com/WaterBOB-Emergency-Drinking-Storage-Gallons/dp/B001AXLUX2/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1504489026&sr=8-1&keywords=waterbob best $25 you can invest in right now |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 8:53:50 PM EST
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
We have two of those. They're a great idea. 
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Posted: 9/3/2017 8:54:13 PM EST
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Brother, if this storm achieves 880mb pressures like is being forecast...you'd be lucky to have a foundation left, to have a house, to have a bathtub, to hold drinking water. ... |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 8:57:36 PM EST
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Can somebody explain the significance of the mb pressure levels? 
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Posted: 9/3/2017 8:57:48 PM EST
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Can somebody explain the significance of the mb pressure levels? 
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:00:22 PM EST
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
We have two of those. They're a great idea. Wallyworld 36 bucks 
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:00:22 PM EST
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Brother, if this storm achieves 880mb pressures like is being forecast...you'd be lucky to have a foundation left, to have a house, to have a bathtub, to hold drinking water. You'd be looking at 200+ mph sustained winds. An EF5 tornado has 200+ mph winds...but they're not sustained winds. This storm could be like an EF5 tornado that keeps blowing >200mph for a couple hours...or more. I might suggest you skip the prep stuff and use that $25.00 to buy gasoline to un-ass the area. |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:02:33 PM EST
[#27]
If it heads towards South Carolina what will they do for Paris Island preps?
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:04:42 PM EST
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Didn't they already come out and say that pressure prediction was fake news? 944 mb is still a Cat 4 Hurricane. Katrina was technically a Cat 3 at landfall, but it was so large it carried a Cat 5 storm surge. Either way it's gonna be a bad Hurricane if it makes landfall. |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:05:18 PM EST
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Didn't they already come out and say that pressure prediction was fake news? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Brother, if this storm achieves 880mb pressures like is being forecast...you'd be lucky to have a foundation left, to have a house, to have a bathtub, to hold drinking water. You'd be looking at 200+ mph sustained winds. An EF5 tornado has 200+ mph winds...but they're not sustained winds. This storm could be like an EF5 tornado that keeps blowing >200mph for a couple hours...or more. I might suggest you skip the prep stuff and use that $25.00 to buy gasoline to un-ass the area. |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:07:34 PM EST
[#30]
if you are at ground zero, you are correct, get out of Dodge. But , you can be 150 miles away and still be affected by power being out. no water etc.
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:08:27 PM EST
[#31]
Watching with trepidation from Clearwater here... we live about 300-400feet from the bay.. not sure how much flooding is a risk for us where we are on this hurricane, but that is likely the least of the worries from the wind and rain. While we stored up on food and water, if it looks to be as strong as it could be, we will be sure to unass the area ASAP (like, getting out ahead of the crowds..). Blah, it wouldn't be so bad if i didnt have the image of Houston in my mind...
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:09:05 PM EST
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The models on the Hurricane Hunters website are forecasting 880mb pressures for this bitch. Pressure less than 920mb indicates Cat 5 status. 40mb passed Cat 5 threshold is....frightening as hell.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090318/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:10:17 PM EST
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
920 mb is still a Cat 5 Hurricane. 944 mb is still a Cat 4 Hurricane. Katrina was technically a Cat 3 at landfall, but it was so large it carried a Cat 5 storm surge. Either way it's gonna be a bad Hurricane if it makes landfall. |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:12:41 PM EST
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The models on the Hurricane Hunters website are forecasting 880mb pressures for this bitch. Pressure less than 920mb indicates Cat 5 status. 40mb passed Cat 5 threshold is....frightening as hell.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090318/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:13:21 PM EST
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Didn't they already come out and say that pressure prediction was fake news? |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:13:31 PM EST
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Watching with trepidation from Clearwater here... we live about 300-400feet from the bay.. not sure how much flooding is a risk for us where we are on this hurricane, but that is likely the least of the worries from the wind and rain. While we stored up on food and water, if it looks to be as strong as it could be, we will be sure to unass the area ASAP (like, getting out ahead of the crowds..). Blah, it wouldn't be so bad if i didnt have the image of Houston in my mind... |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:13:52 PM EST
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Watching with trepidation from Clearwater here... we live about 300-400feet from the bay.. not sure how much flooding is a risk for us where we are on this hurricane, but that is likely the least of the worries from the wind and rain. While we stored up on food and water, if it looks to be as strong as it could be, we will be sure to unass the area ASAP (like, getting out ahead of the crowds..). Blah, it wouldn't be so bad if i didnt have the image of Houston in my mind... that show St Pete under many feet of water. This storm would not push a storm surge up in the Bay on your side. |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:21:15 PM EST
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Tampa Bay isn't a great place to be if the hurricane is in a position to push water into it. I've see water crashing over the causeway with weak storms.  I'm outta here if anything over a 2 comes calling. Hell, I bought a lifted XJ just to be able to leave when it gets like this.
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:22:06 PM EST
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Can somebody explain the significance of the mb pressure levels? 
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:24:58 PM EST
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The models on the Hurricane Hunters website are forecasting 880mb pressures for this bitch. Pressure less than 920mb indicates Cat 5 status. 40mb passed Cat 5 threshold is....frightening as hell.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090318/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png I sure hope that model run doesn't verify. If it does, somewhere on the east coast is going to get fucked up beyond what most folks alive in the U.S. today have ever seen a hurricane do. |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:28:43 PM EST
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Didn't they already come out and say that pressure prediction was fake news?
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:29:41 PM EST
[#42]
 Hurricane Irma Outlook for Sunday, September 3, 2017 |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:29:59 PM EST
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I'm going with two sets of water wings just to be safe Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
I'd put money on a MB landfall. If she shifts a bit north, landfall may be at....Landfall.
Stay safe. As much as I distrust the media, I don't want to see folks ignore warnings to flee and get drowned, or have to get stuck in a area where they have to pay $20 a gallon for fuel. 
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:31:24 PM EST
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
This is my neighborhood in St. Pete with high tide and a halfway decent rain storm. I'm outta here if anything over a 2 comes calling. Hell, I bought a lifted XJ just to be able to leave when it gets like this.
https://scontent-mia3-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t31.0-8/21319284_10155722090223035_6416971835065627190_o.jpg?oh=e71d7d384cceb80a82906d02fd73f13a&oe=5A13D88A https://scontent-mia3-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/19149363_10155448685118035_726004274632653754_n.jpg?oh=5342cb9c165efd83d331912c4ebec09a&oe=5A5B8F58 |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:32:04 PM EST
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The lowest recorded pressure ever in the Atlantic basin was Hurricane Wilma and it had 185 mph winds at that time. 882 mb was it's pressure. https://www.weathertap.com/guides/graphics/tropical/saffirsimpsonscale.png
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:33:22 PM EST
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Watching with trepidation from Clearwater here... we live about 300-400feet from the bay.. not sure how much flooding is a risk for us where we are on this hurricane, but that is likely the least of the worries from the wind and rain. While we stored up on food and water, if it looks to be as strong as it could be, we will be sure to unass the area ASAP (like, getting out ahead of the crowds..). Blah, it wouldn't be so bad if i didnt have the image of Houston in my mind... |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:41:24 PM EST
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I'd be shocked if it wound up in Tallanasty. Not sure I've seen a single projection taking it that way. There's a chance it hits Florida, but the way things sit now I'd hazard a guess that it skirts the Florida coast much like Matthew did and then either makes landfall further north or heads back out to sea. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Told Mrs. Miami_JBT that she goes out to a safe zone with the pups while I ride out the storm if it hits Tally. Hopefully we won't get it. But I think FL is gonna get smacked. There's a chance it hits Florida, but the way things sit now I'd hazard a guess that it skirts the Florida coast much like Matthew did and then either makes landfall further north or heads back out to sea. |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:47:53 PM EST
[#48]
for people on the coast, elevationmap.net allows you to pick a spot and see how high above sea level it is.
I'm 31' above sea level in Pinellas County. |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:50:44 PM EST
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Damn! I know it is just a model run and all, but still, that is just freaky! For comparison, Hurricane Camille's pressure was about 900 mb. Not even the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane (185 mph winds) featured a pressure that low. And look at how big GFS is forecasting this bitch to be. That is sizable storm. I sure hope that model run doesn't verify. If it does, somewhere on the east coast is going to get fucked up beyond what most folks alive in the U.S. today have ever seen a hurricane do. |
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Posted: 9/3/2017 9:53:33 PM EST
[#50]
?
Quote HistoryQuoted:
All the indications now are that if it hits Florida it will skirt up the east coast. The west coast of Florida will be on the dry side and the storm surge in the Gulf will not be that bad. I live in Central Florida and I see nothing that says that we should panic. (I moved to FL 1.5 years ago, so i am still nailing down just how paranoid i need to be. but the boy scout in me says.... be prepared). That said, while i know surge wouldn't get blown in the bay, is there any risk of it getting sucked back in as it passes (again, if it is head-on)? |
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