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Posted: 9/5/2023 3:52:54 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It would be a mess for sure. But nuclear winter requires putting a whole lotta shit in the upper atmosphere and having it stay there for a while. Say with a super volcano or asteroid strike. Hundreds of nukes might not have the ass to get that job done. If humanity hits "fuck it" and launches them all, maybe.. It’s not just the actual blast but the fires that will burn for days or weeks even. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 3:54:35 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: He’s on day 559 of his 3 day war that he’s been “done toying around with” for over a year. Got anything else? Any day the gloves will come off. Aaaaany day now. Any day... right up until the tune switches to "I never really wanted those grapes. Probably sour, anyways." |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 3:58:48 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It would be a mess for sure. But nuclear winter requires putting a whole lotta shit in the upper atmosphere and having it stay there for a while. Say with a super volcano or asteroid strike. Hundreds of nukes might not have the ass to get that job done. If humanity hits "fuck it" and launches them all, maybe.. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Less likely under the counterforce doctrine too, I'd imagine. If cities and chemical plants burned, I bet there would be a lot more smoke than some plains states fields. Imagine half the trains going East Palestine. Hundreds of nukes might not have the ass to get that job done. If humanity hits "fuck it" and launches them all, maybe.. Less of an issue since the commies Carter and Reagan disarmed us in the face of evil. Now we just have to suffer under the illusion of no option but peace at any price. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:01:47 PM EDT
[#4]
Mach I'm no expert on nuclear bombs and I have no idea how many nukes have been set off by other countries what I do know is if any two countries go at it with nuclear weapons it will get ugly fast especially if other countries get drawn into the conflict.
As for nuclear subs being hard to find again all I know is what I have read and programs I've watched. From what I understand once a sub has gone below a certain depth (I believe they call it the thermo plane) it becomes harder to detect due to water temperature. Also, from what I understand our subs are very quiet more so than other superpowers subs. What I do know for sure is a nuclear exchange would be devastating for the entire world, there will be no winners. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:04:07 PM EDT
[#5]
I am absolutely no expert on nuclear winter, but the evidence strongly suggests that it's a distinct possibility. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:05:05 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I am absolutely no expert on nuclear winter, but the evidence strongly suggests that it's a distinct possibility. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter Either way, nuclear war seems kinda bad. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:09:36 PM EDT
[#7]
Does not matter what he uses. Launch even one nuke, big or small, and Russia is thrown on the ash heap of history. In a thousand years, someone might return and find an artifact that does not glow in the dark. Putin must be made to grasp this truth.
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:15:04 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Does not matter what he uses. Launch even one nuke, big or small, and Russia is thrown on the ash heap of history. In a thousand years, someone might return and find an artifact that does not glow in the dark. Putin must be made to grasp this truth. Doesn’t work that way. Our doctrine isn’t to respond to one nuke with an all out launch. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:15:22 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Either way, nuclear war seems kinda bad. When the alternative is the MIC raking in cash on forever war, it doesn't seem so bad. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:15:50 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: When the alternative is the MIC raking in cash on forever war, it doesn't seem so bad. Give me a heads up then |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:16:03 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It would be a mess for sure. But nuclear winter requires putting a whole lotta shit in the upper atmosphere and having it stay there for a while. Say with a super volcano or asteroid strike. Hundreds of nukes might not have the ass to get that job done. If humanity hits "fuck it" and launches them all, maybe.. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Less likely under the counterforce doctrine too, I'd imagine. If cities and chemical plants burned, I bet there would be a lot more smoke than some plains states fields. Imagine half the trains going East Palestine. Hundreds of nukes might not have the ass to get that job done. If humanity hits "fuck it" and launches them all, maybe.. There's also, conceivably, a size component to the theory. Big devices have much higher intrusion to the upper atmosphere than even the 1 Mt or so warheads on the RF's big MIRV ICBMs. I'm not looking it up, but I want to say Ivy Mike's mushroom cloud topped out at something like 120,000 or 160,000 feet. Tsar's was even more ridiculous. Throw particulates that high, they can go a ways before they drop. If they do. A cloud "only" going 70,000' (Numbers are ex rectum), is going to settle out faster. Plus the level of fuel would be higher in a countervalue attack. There'd likely be a massive firestorm that would make Meetinghouse look paltry. Several of them. Maybe that would be what's needed for nuclear winter to actually work, if it ever was going to? As I've written before though, countervalue'll be rough on Midwest farmers. That's a lot of digging and throwing radioactive dirt everywhere. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:17:04 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted: There's also, conceivably, a size component to the theory. Big devices have much higher intrusion to the upper atmosphere than even the 1 Mt or so warheads on the RF's big MIRV ICBMs. I'm not looking it up, but I want to say Ivy Mike's mushroom cloud topped out at something like 120,000 or 160,000 feet. Tsar's was even more ridiculous. Throw particulates that high, they can go a ways before they drop. If they do. A cloud "only" going 70,000' (Numbers are ex rectum), is going to settle out faster. Plus the level of fuel would be higher in a countervalue attack. There'd likely be a massive firestorm that would make Meetinghouse look paltry. Several of them. Maybe that would be what's needed for nuclear winter to actually work, if it ever was going to? As I've written before though, countervalue'll be rough on Midwest farmers. That's a lot of digging and throwing radioactive dirt everywhere. Biggest factor will be air burst vs ground burst, also a winter war with a strong jet stream. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:26:50 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Either way, nuclear war seems kinda bad. Such a war on a large scale would almost certainly kill civilization in it's current form. Humanity would continue in places like Argentina and New Zealand. But it would be a very harsh existence for the survivors. Where things get really fucked up is when you have people who believe that civilization in it's current form deserves to die. Mostly these are the most insane of environmentalists. But not all of them... |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:27:35 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Doesn’t work that way. Our doctrine isn’t to respond to one nuke with an all out launch. @ FlyNavy75 We can launch one or all or anything in between. The idea is to make Putin understand whatever our response is, Russia is going to pay dearly. He can not be allowed to gamble it will be tit for tat. The fear of the unpredictable is part of how it works. We can target whatever we want and he can't stop it. The primary goal is deterrence. If everyone is convinced the consequences are not worth the cost, we did our job. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:28:07 PM EDT
[#15]
That's a legit name for an ICBM.
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:28:08 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Such a war on a large scale would almost certainly kill civilization in it's current form. Humanity would continue in places like Argentina and New Zealand. But it would be a very harsh existence for the survivors. Where things get really fucked up is when you have people who believe that civilization in it's current form deserves to die. Mostly these are the most insane of environmentalists. But not all of them... What the war itself didn’t kill, the follow on economic collapse, starvation and plagues will. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:28:44 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It's not just the actual blast but the fires that will burn for days or weeks even. The mushroom cloud is doing most of the work. That's also why nobody ever bothered to build a bomb bigger than the Tsar, it's technically very possible, H bombs scale really well. But the boom is so big that a lot of the energy doesn't even stay in the atmosphere. Pokes out into space. The Tonga volcano that put all the water vapor in the upper levels sent ash 36 miles up, even that didn't cause a serious ash problem or loss of a season, the water vapor probably effect heat in the upper level though. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:30:13 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Give me a heads up then Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: When the alternative is the MIC raking in cash on forever war, it doesn't seem so bad. Give me a heads up then Within 5 years after China sinks a CSG |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:31:25 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Such a war on a large scale would almost certainly kill civilization in it's current form. Humanity would continue in places like Argentina and New Zealand. But it would be a very harsh existence for the survivors. Where things get really fucked up is when you have people who believe that civilization in its current form deserves to die. Mostly these are the most insane of environmentalists. But not all of them... In agrarian, you'll be permitted to own any weapon you can make or buy, just like the founders intended. Doesn't sound so bad. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:31:38 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: @ FlyNavy75 We can launch one or all or anything in between. The idea is to make Putin understand whatever our response is, Russia is going to pay dearly. He can not be allowed to gamble it will be tit for tat. The fear of the unpredictable is part of how it works. We can target whatever we want and he can't stop it. The primary goal is deterrence. If everyone is convinced the consequences are not worth the cost, we did our job. And their missiles can target whatever they want and we can’t stop it. Hence the MAD doctrine. If you respond to a single nuclear event with an all out nuclear response then you assure yourself of being on the receiving end of one. A single nuclear event would likely be responded to with either a large conventional response or a single nuclear response. Certainly not an all out one. Jesus, I’m glad our planners are more sane than that. This isn’t an 80s movie with a thousand warheads coming down. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:32:19 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What the war itself didn’t kill, the follow on economic collapse, starvation and plagues will. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Such a war on a large scale would almost certainly kill civilization in it's current form. Humanity would continue in places like Argentina and New Zealand. But it would be a very harsh existence for the survivors. Where things get really fucked up is when you have people who believe that civilization in it's current form deserves to die. Mostly these are the most insane of environmentalists. But not all of them... What the war itself didn’t kill, the follow on economic collapse, starvation and plagues will. Don't believe the Threads psyop. We'd be fine. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:32:59 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Don't believe the Threads psyop. We'd be fine. Random. I just watched that the other day, unplanned. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:33:02 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: There's also, conceivably, a size component to the theory. Big devices have much higher intrusion to the upper atmosphere than even the 1 Mt or so warheads on the RF's big MIRV ICBMs. I'm not looking it up, but I want to say Ivy Mike's mushroom cloud topped out at something like 120,000 or 160,000 feet. Tsar's was even more ridiculous. Throw particulates that high, they can go a ways before they drop. If they do. A cloud "only" going 70,000' (Numbers are ex rectum), is going to settle out faster. Plus the level of fuel would be higher in a countervalue attack. There'd likely be a massive firestorm that would make Meetinghouse look paltry. Several of them. Maybe that would be what's needed for nuclear winter to actually work, if it ever was going to? As I've written before though, countervalue'll be rough on Midwest farmers. That's a lot of digging and throwing radioactive dirt everywhere. We burned Japan and Germany like they were damned and didn't change diddly shit with the seasons. IMHO surface fires from nukes aren't the big issue. Like you said it's getting it up to the edge of space that gets it done. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:33:44 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: And their missiles can target whatever they want and we can’t stop it. Hence the MAD doctrine. If you respond to a single nuclear event with an all out nuclear response then you assure yourself of being on the receiving end of one. A single nuclear event would likely be responded to with either a large conventional response or a single nuclear response. Certainly not an all out one. Jesus, I’m glad our planners are more sane than that. This isn’t an 80s movie with a thousand warheads coming down. MAD is dead and we can and will stop individual launches. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:34:52 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The far more interesting development is the super tiny warheads on D5s. Like 5kt. I can't understand the use case. Seems like anything worth nuking with an SLBM is worth nuking big. Or at least not worth developing a new warhead for. Any hostile SLBM launch would be extremely provocative, So it would seem like an all or nothing type of situation. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: It had superb accuracy, but the new W71A1 modification makes it at least as accurate. It's also pointless since we're now down-loading all of our MIRV'd missiles anyway. Most MMIII's carry only a single warhead instead of the usual 3 nowadays. Trident D-5s carry 4-5 instead of 8. I can't understand the use case. Seems like anything worth nuking with an SLBM is worth nuking big. Or at least not worth developing a new warhead for. Any hostile SLBM launch would be extremely provocative, So it would seem like an all or nothing type of situation. Partly based on the idea that Russia was more likely to use a tiny nuke because we didn't have a tiny nuke to respond with. https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2073532/statement-on-the-fielding-of-the-w76-2-low-yield-submarine-launched-ballistic-m/ Realistically its because you need significantly less material for such a smaller device and can increase range with the same booster. A low-radiation device gives more wiggle room with targets too. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:36:24 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: MAD is dead and we can and will stop individual launches. From Russia? Nope. Aegis hitting some shit NK ICBM as it’s goes up is much different than targeting maneuvering warheads with decoys from different trajectories. There is nothing we could do to stop a Russian nuclear attack if Putin pushed that button right now. Not a thing. Unless there is something we don’t know about, which obviously wouldn’t be posted here. Maybe we have sharks with laser beams. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:37:27 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Random. I just watched that the other day, unplanned. I watched it last night lmao Given the countervalue megatons that would have been thrown around at the time, nuclear winter seems more reasonable. Personally I think it all goes to shit if one nuke gets through from the sheer panic of eloi. Once the dominoes (threads) start to fall, it's hard but not impossible to recover. Rural areas would have the best chance but the minuscule amount of horses that exist will be a huge problem. Probably the biggest. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:38:01 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: From Russia? Nope. Aegis hitting some shit NK ICBM as it's goes up is much different than targeting maneuvering warheads with decoys from different trajectories. There is nothing we could do to stop a Russian nuclear attack if Putin pushed that button right now. Not a thing. Unless there is something we don't know about, which obviously wouldn't be posted here. Maybe we have sharks with laser beams. 
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:38:44 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Space sharks with friggen laser beams You don’t think a toilet seat costs $1000 do you? |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:38:59 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: From Russia? Nope. Aegis hitting some shit NK ICBM as it’s goes up is much different than targeting maneuvering warheads with decoys from different trajectories. There is nothing we could do to stop a Russian nuclear attack if Putin pushed that button right now. Not a thing. Unless there is something we don’t know about, which obviously wouldn’t be posted here. Maybe we have sharks with laser beams. There is, and it's awesome. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:39:28 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You don’t think a toilet seat costs $1000 do you? They reasonably can. Specs are a bitch. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:39:29 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Ground fires make smoke and ash that settles pretty quick. You need to alter seasons. What year didn't have a summer? late 1800s I think. Krakatoa went KB! and put enough ash and sulfur high up in the atmosphere that summer just didn't happen that year...anywhere. The mushroom cloud is doing most of the work. That's also why nobody ever bothered to build a bomb bigger than the Tsar, it's technically very possible, H bombs scale really well. But the boom is so big that a lot of the energy doesn't even stay in the atmosphere. Pokes out into space. The Tonga volcano that put all the water vapor in the upper levels sent ash 36 miles up, even that didn't cause a serious ash problem or loss of a season, the water vapor probably effect heat in the upper level though. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: It's not just the actual blast but the fires that will burn for days or weeks even. The mushroom cloud is doing most of the work. That's also why nobody ever bothered to build a bomb bigger than the Tsar, it's technically very possible, H bombs scale really well. But the boom is so big that a lot of the energy doesn't even stay in the atmosphere. Pokes out into space. The Tonga volcano that put all the water vapor in the upper levels sent ash 36 miles up, even that didn't cause a serious ash problem or loss of a season, the water vapor probably effect heat in the upper level though. 536AD - the worst year to be alive (so far, anyway). |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:39:49 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I am absolutely no expert on nuclear winter, but the evidence strongly suggests that it's a distinct possibility. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter Quote HistoryQuoted: I am absolutely no expert on nuclear winter, but the evidence strongly suggests that it's a distinct possibility. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter The models make some sweeping assumptions and there are some (I think) valid criticisms that point out those big assumptions. Listed in the article. What makes me somewhat skeptical of the worst-case "we all gonna die!" predictions is this little gem. In 2007 Schneider expressed his tentative support for the cooling results of the limited nuclear war (Pakistan and India) analyzed in the 2006 model, saying, "The sun is much stronger in the tropics than it is in mid-latitudes. Therefore, a much more limited war [there] could have a much larger effect, because you are putting the smoke in the worst possible place", and, "anything that you can do to discourage people from thinking that there is any way to win anything with a nuclear exchange is a good idea Sound familiar? I get the logic. But that sentiment is very reminiscent of researchers downplaying or outright ignoring "inconvenient" climate data because they're afraid it might lead to less concern about climate change. They're less concerned with the actual truth than they are with the "bigger truth." The Nuclear Winter research and modeling appears to suffer the same type of unscientific activism as some climate change research. I'm no expert, either. But as far as we can know, there appears to be the possibility of a "nuclear autumn" that lasts a few days or weeks or a nuclear winter that kills billions. And it all depends on what (as yet unproven) assumptions you plug into the model. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:40:11 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: There is, and it's awesome. Hope they are great white sharks or would that be racist? |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:40:13 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I watched it last night lmao Given the countervalue megatons that would have been thrown around at the time, nuclear winter seems more reasonable. Personally I think it all goes to shit if one nuke gets through from the sheer panic of eloi. Once the dominoes (threads) start to fall, it's hard but not impossible to recover. Rural areas would have the best chance but the minuscule amount of horses that exist will be a huge problem. Probably the biggest. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:41:03 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: They reasonably can. Specs are a bitch. I saw an ad for a toilet that was several thousand dollars the other day. Can’t remember the brand. The lid opened automatically as you approached. That was cool I suppose. It had lights too. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:42:43 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Hope they are great white sharks or would that be racist? They're scarier than that. 
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:44:12 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: They're scarier than that. Have you ever been body boarding off San Diego by yourself around dusk? I’ll never do that again. I got a weird feeling out there. Never did it again. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:44:41 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: My family has 30 or 40 of the worthless fuckers hanging around....they make a land rover look reliable. And that's the best you get after the EDI logistics systems and pipelines go down. Unless you think the refineries and pipelines and nerds who run them will be repaired before local fuel depots run out. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:45:54 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Such a war on a large scale would almost certainly kill civilization in it's current form. Humanity would continue in places like Argentina and New Zealand. But it would be a very harsh existence for the survivors. Where things get really fucked up is when you have people who believe that civilization in it's current form deserves to die. Mostly these are the most insane of environmentalists. But not all of them... Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Either way, nuclear war seems kinda bad. Such a war on a large scale would almost certainly kill civilization in it's current form. Humanity would continue in places like Argentina and New Zealand. But it would be a very harsh existence for the survivors. Where things get really fucked up is when you have people who believe that civilization in it's current form deserves to die. Mostly these are the most insane of environmentalists. But not all of them... Disagree. @Limaxray's shown the math. Africa---once you hashed out the massive starvation---likely wouldn't notice. Fallout would have a challenge crossing the Equator. We just don't have that many bombs anymore. Gigantic salted doomsday devices excepted, if anyone has one. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:46:00 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Have you ever been body boarding off San Diego by yourself around dusk? I’ll never do that again. I got a weird feeling out there. Never did it again. My balance is shit, I can't do fun stuff. I wish I could, it sounds amazing. (When you aren't the potential prey of an apex predator) |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:47:02 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Disagree. @Limaxray's shown the math. Africa---once you hashed out the massive starvation---likely wouldn't notice. Fallout would have a challenge crossing the Equator. We just don't have that many bombs anymore. Gigantic salted doomsday devices excepted, if anyone has one. Would there be an African left to notice (once you hashed out the starvation)? |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:47:54 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: My balance is shit, I can't do fun stuff. I wish I could, it sounds amazing. (When you aren't the potential prey of an apex predator) Interestingly enough, a week or so later a dolphin washed up with a huge bite out of it. I’ll never be able to prove it but I’ll always believe there was a white shark near me that evening. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:49:55 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Interestingly enough, a week or so later a dolphin washed up with a huge bite out of it. I’ll never be able to prove it but I’ll always believe there was a white shark near me that evening. I'm glad it didn't get you. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:50:23 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Disagree. @Limaxray's shown the math. Africa---once you hashed out the massive starvation---likely wouldn't notice. Fallout would have a challenge crossing the Equator. We just don't have that many bombs anymore. Gigantic salted doomsday devices excepted, if anyone has one. I am also in the nuclear winter is an overblown threat. Camp. That said I really wouldn't rule out the possibility that Russia has or is working on some of those salted doomsday devices. I think the North Koreans might try to make one as well. But they have some resource constraints. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:52:30 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Interestingly enough, a week or so later a dolphin washed up with a huge bite out of it. I’ll never be able to prove it but I’ll always believe there was a white shark near me that evening. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: My balance is shit, I can't do fun stuff. I wish I could, it sounds amazing. (When you aren't the potential prey of an apex predator) Interestingly enough, a week or so later a dolphin washed up with a huge bite out of it. I’ll never be able to prove it but I’ll always believe there was a white shark near me that evening. Oh there very likely was. Those big animals certainly do have a vibe that humans spent a long time tuning into. I can't see ignoring that sort of feeling as being an evolutionary advantage.
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:52:55 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I am also in the nuclear winter is an overblown threat. Camp. That said I really wouldn't rule out the possibility that Russia has or is working on some of those salted doomsday devices. I think the North Koreans might try to make one as well. But they have some resource constraints. Remember, the timeframe nuclear winter was being pushed was also the same timeframe the .gov was pushing hole in the ozone and acid rain. Nuclear war would be the biggest disaster man has known but nuclear winter is lower on the scale for me in threats, behind economic collapse, civil unrest and disease that would inevitably come from it. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:53:38 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Oh there very likely was. Those big animals certainly do have a vibe that humans spent a long time tuning into. I can't see ignoring that sort of feeling as being an evolutionary advantage. I felt a real fear. It was weird. I could’ve just been being a pussy though. But the feeling was real. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:54:01 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The models make some sweeping assumptions and there are some (I think) valid criticisms that point out those big assumptions. Listed in the article. What makes me somewhat skeptical of the worst-case "we all gonna die!" predictions is this little gem. Sound familiar? I get the logic. But that sentiment is very reminiscent of researchers downplaying or outright ignoring "inconvenient" climate data because they're afraid it might lead to less concern about climate change. They're less concerned with the actual truth than they are with the "bigger truth." The Nuclear Winter research and modeling appears to suffer the same type of unscientific activism as some climate change research. I'm no expert, either. But as far as we can know, there appears to be the possibility of a "nuclear autumn" that lasts a few days or weeks or a nuclear winter that kills billions. And it all depends on what (as yet unproven) assumptions you plug into the model. High uncertainty and high risk. |
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Posted: 9/5/2023 4:54:20 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: And their missiles can target whatever they want and we can’t stop it. Hence the MAD doctrine. If you respond to a single nuclear event with an all out nuclear response then you assure yourself of being on the receiving end of one. A single nuclear event would likely be responded to with either a large conventional response or a single nuclear response. Certainly not an all out one. Jesus, I’m glad our planners are more sane than that. This isn’t an 80s movie with a thousand warheads coming down. Again the whole idea is to not be predictable. The president has the flexibility to respond as he pleases. If Putin knows the response and views it acceptable loss, you kill the element of deterrence. You want him to consider all the possibilities. To be predictable is to be no deterrence at all. By your thinking, why not trade a list of targets and let him pick our response so he doesn't get butt hurt. |
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