Who cares?
There's no winners coming out of this cluster fuck.
Whether by catching kung flu or losing your job / business or just by watching your retirement dwindle away. it's all a big ball of suck.

Why do we have to have these stupid arguments? So someone on the internet can feel all smug about themselves? It's fucking retarded.

I read this thread to try and figure out what a "flubro" is. No luck. I guess a "doomer" is someone who thinks the china flu will kill 100 million world wide?

I think the china flu is bad, maybe 10X worse than the regular flu. But I also believe the MSM, dems, WHO (commie front group) are hyping it all to harm capitalism and industry. It's just like climate change in that it is a over-hyped crisis being used to further the globalist world commie conspiracy. Am I a flubro?

no one will answer your barrage of condescending questions? Sorry man.

This will pass, relatively soon,. When it comes around again, or any other flu, how many deaths occurr before the government shuts things done again?  Has a precedent been set from which there will never be a return to "normal" or is this the new normal?

OP -

It's said that people don't value something they didn't pay for.  The OP hasn't offered to pay for answers.

A. The OP suggests he's been asking these questions for a while.  How many people don't feel they should have to search for threads to verify his assertions?
B. If the OP offered to pay for answers, would you search his prior assertions?
C. Should the OP pay a set amount for answering all the questions or pay by question?
D. Should the OP pay based on an hourly rate for the research?
E.  What should that rate be?
F.  Has the OP set aside a portion of his proposal package for women and/or minority based answers?
G. Is the OP asserting any intellectual property rights in the collected information?
H. Has the OP stopped beating his wife or significant other?
I. If he hasn't got a wife or significant other, who or what is he beating?
J.  If he stops the beatings now, how long will it take for the recipients to heal?
K.  If he doesn't stop the beatings, howlong will it be until the victims die or choose to beat back?
L.  Who cares?

Due to the gleeful response from progressives, we can expect some type of panic induced shut downs and gov't over reaction EVERY FUCKING FLU SEASON from now forward!

The only things I can think of is the authorities are gambling on (1) warmer weather killing the virus, (2) treatments become available to allow the patient to live through the infection and (3) buys time for a vaccine to come out.

So answer those same questions for the normal flu season later this year... Go ahead I'll wait....

They aren’t reasonable questions, why would anyone answer them?

This wont be our last one of these.

Politicians are having to much fun.

Our enemies have definitely been made away of a GIGANTIC weakness in our Republic... will be too easy to do this to us over and over again.  You don't need a big military to bring the US to its knees... sad, actually

I just post cause I’m bored at work watching everything I’ve worked for my entire life dwindle away.

My OP says answer are "approximate." Anyway, if you're paying attention, this isn't some kind of "how many angels can dance on the head of a pin exercise," but calling it that is a nice deflection. The point of this is to get people to think through their opinions and conclusions. Sadly, many people would rather name call and point fingers than think.  

1. If few, if any, quarantine measures had been taken in the U.S., what would the infection rate reach? At least 10%, probably not more than 15%. This is based on the fact that seasonal flu is usually around 8%. All data indicates that COVID-19 is more infectious than seasonal flu. 10% yields 32,700,000 U.S. cases.

2. If few, if any, quarantine measures had been taken in the U.S., what would the final death rate be? Since the low-end containment death rate estimates are 1.4%, 2% sounds reasonable since there appears to be some correlation between quarantine measures and death rates. A 10% infection rate and a 2% death rate yields 654,000 deaths.

3. Given the quarantine measures that we have taken, what will the infection rate reach? 1%, WAG.

4. Given the quarantine measures that we have taken, what will the final death rate be? 1%. We should do better than China.

5. On what date will deaths stop doubling every 3-4 days and the doubling rate begin to slow? April 15, semi-WAG based on the few (two?) large countries who have gotten to the point of declining numbers. ETA: I'll roll this back to April 9 due to Trump's telegraphing Easter as the end date.

6. How many lives saved would make the current quarantine measures worth it? If you get anything approaching 500,000 deaths, people are shutting themselves in regardless. Then you get both the economic collapse and the deaths.

7. How many would have to die before people would self-quarantine without government directives? 500,000, WAG.

8. How many would have to die before people should self-quarantine of their own accord? 200,000, WAG. Note that my estimate for no quarantine yields 654,000 deaths.

"Flu Bro" and "Doomer" are basically the terms that have evolved here for the people who think COVID-19 is overblown and the people who think it's likely to be catastrophic if treated like seasonal flu.

I forget what the question was.

People don’t trust the government or the media, and for good reason. They have both repeatedly cried wolf, so everybody for the most part knows that in 99.9% of cases, they’re full of shit. If, in this case, they aren’t full of shit, then unfortunately they’ve already undermined and destroyed their own credibility. And guess what else, if their attempts to shut down the whole country to stop this virus from being a big disaster work, then most likely they’ll never be able to do so again because the perception of the great majority of people will be that they destroyed the economy for no good reason. So it really doesn’t even matter if they are right.

Also, this sort of situation exposes the fragility of the leftist idea of living, being an urban dweller in high density housing, riding public transportation which is a massive disease vector, and just constantly being packed together like rats in a cage which greatly increase your chances of contracting and transmitting disease. For us rubes in flyover country, or near enough to it, we live in single-family housing, drive to work in a car that’s pretty much only ever occupied by our immediate family, don’t work in a cubicle farm, shop in stores that really aren’t crowded and give you plenty of space to yourself, and often our hobbies involve activities which only further isolate us from the already not dense population we live near. The riskiest behavior most conservatives regularly engage is going to church. And crazily enough, the churches around me have mostly voluntarily suspended in-person services and are live streaming services.

Don’t hold your breath

. The hubris and downright stupidity on here seems to be  "I live in the middle of nowhere,it can't happen here like among those filthy liberals in a polluted city".


  Here is a dose of reality: I come from an island with legitimately some of the cleanest air in the world,there is no industry and constant sea breeze. Population density is half that of Vermont,I can rip off a belt of 7.92 out there and nobody gives a shit because only 2 people can hear it. Right now it is shut  down because the infections overwhelmed the hospital. Rural communities are almost certainly going to see the same thing as the kids who were on spring break come back or family members from cities go to  "safe" rural areas to wait out the shutdown.

  A whole bunch of you still aren't taking it seriously because it seems far away but you are going to be in for a rude shock.  The longer you have your tantrum the longer this event lasts. A bunch of you guys are intentionally making life harder for yourself and it is idiotic. If you think,in any way,that the US economy is going to come roaring back when NYC,Boston and Chicago are having a complete shit show you are absolutely nuts. You don't get it: if these places are melting down there isn't going to be anyone who gives a shit about your small city or perhaps county hospital having problems.

  I keep reading "we have to get back to normal",yes yes you do but you have spent no time trying to actually reduce the spread yet. The social distancing / self isolation attempt has been utterly laughable,it isn't working because it couldn't work with such poor participation. What many are doing is being angry at being stuck inside a cabin because there was a bear outside but you have only waited one minute. You have to get the spread under control or else the spread will control you.

See, the Doomer’s measures worked.  Thank God for the Doomers.  

See number one is where I take issue if we are to believe the virus is as infecting as it is touted to be.

I have heard estimates of WELL OVER 50 percent IIRC.

Now are all these talking heads correct.........I have no fucking idea.

Well, to be fair, that’s at least possibility in the academic sense.

OP is asking the flubros to predict what would have happened if there hadn’t been quarantine/shutdown/social distancing measures put in place...which is an alternate reality.

I can at least predict that there won’t be an ICBM strike in the next 7 days and we’ll be able to tell if I’m right or not in 8 days.

I'm not a flubro, nor am I a doomer.

Just FYI Mr. Smarterthanusall, those are not simple questions that anyone can answer.

I don't see it ever getting anywhere near a 50% infection rate. Even if the government did not mandate quarantines, people would do it themselves long before the infection rate got to 50%. However, the data indicates that anything less than 10% is somewhat wishful thinking if we do nothing.

I'll give you some questions that no one seems to be considering.

What is the worldwide cost and death toll related to shutting down the worlds greatest economies?
How will the US continue to fight disease around the world when it's economy is crippled?
On a scale of $0 - All the dollars, what is the value of a single human life?

All questions, of course, are general, vague and unanswerable with any level of accuracy. Life is full of what-ifs, most-all of which will never come to be because...wait for it...they are hypothetical

lol...

FPNI...



...lol

Oh, and
Attached File
...

I thought doomers were supposed to be quarantined to the samsquatch area of the board?

I'll play on 7 and 8. My wife has severe RA and is on immunosuppressants and has been for about 6 years now.

Since she has been on them, I have basically self-quarantined so I don't bring in super-cooties from your snot-nosed fuck trophies.

Welcome to my world.

ETA Take your holier than thou "questionnaire" and use it for asswipe because that would be a more scientific use for it.

That’s my favorite one so far

Could be right........I simply have NO FUCKING IDEA.

5. On what date will deaths stop doubling every 3-4 days and the doubling rate begin to slow?

Well, the deaths have stopped doubling already.

March 23: 125
March 22: 123
March 21:  73
March 20:  65
March 19:  56

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com

I'm interested in how people arrive at their own opinions and conclusions. To me, these are the basic questions to work through to decide what our public response to this disease should be. Frankly, I'm surprised they've generated this level of hostility.

I firmly believe one of the STRONG drivers for the world's reaction is also "the fear of the unknown".

This. There’s a line out there where it transitions suddenly from “IDGAF” to “OMG!Lockdown”.

The problem being there’s no clear policy that has been communicated to me where we establish where that line is.

As near as I can tell if my wife’s grandma dies from the flu, no one gives a damn, but it’s a tragedy if she were to die from the 19, so we need to shut down society for God only knows how long.

It’s a dangerous mix of “we really don’t know what we’re dealing with” and “I want to get re-elected so I need to appear to be doing something about this”.

Twice 56 is 112.

Twice 65 is 140.

If your numbers are right, this is indeed showing doubling every 3-4 days.

There's not a single country that's even over 1% infection, not even close, and that's including the worst infected populations.
Italy is 0.11% of the pop. San Marino, which is landlocked by Italy has an infection rate of 0.55%, which is the highest in the world.
The US is at 0.015% of the population is infected.
There's a long way to go before anyone gets anywhere near 10%

eta: I'm just sayin' that these predictions are not proving true in the data, so we should all just calm down a bit.

Sorry, that should be "total" deaths. I edited the OP. The rate of increase of death is a good proxy for measuring the real rate of increase of infections.

See above in red

Vaccine question:

Have there been vaccines made that were dangerous in the sense that it passed on the disease they were trying to prevent?  (Seems impossible considering it is a dead virus or one that cannot reproduce.)

If it really just boils down to efficacy, why not just manufacture a BUZZILLION vaccines that they think might help based on the genetic programming of the virus and keep the testing going........and if the first vaccine doesn't work as well as hoped for...........just keep trying???

Why wait to make sure it is VERY effective...........as long as it is safe just get one out there as fast as possible.

No?

Yes?

This is a place full of people who will argue and debate literally anything just for fun, and you can be assured this isn't a bean in chili thread.

Plus you come off as condescending as well as not too thoughtful.  Why you are surprised at the reactions is a little mystifying.

Never been done before.

This era at Arfcom currently will be forever known as the "Era of the doomers and flubros".

I am starting to get the feeling that most of the people hyping up the "shelter in place/shut down the country" stuff are just lazy fucks who want free money.  They aren't doomers, just typical FSA rats.

I’ll quote this again, maybe OP will see it and answer

There is certainly no lack of desire for "muh Tump bucks"

That's a bunch of what ifs and gotchas.

There is a GOOD chance that we will hit the "crossroads" on that and that question will have to be answered.

Exactly.  The doomtards think millions are going to die no matter what we do.