User Panel
Russian incompetence... it boggles the mind:
What sunk the Moskva? |
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Quoted: I think history is going to view their biggest mistake as not making a major offensive until after Ukraine received so much Western support. They incompetently half assed away a ton of units and wasted years in the Donbass. If they had been smart they would have launched a major offensive just as the Biden administration was taking office. View Quote I agree, the time for Russia to take Ukraine was before it was flooded with western weapons. Apparently Russian logistics couldn't keep up and they move in too far from their resupply. |
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Quoted: GD: Doubts MSM for the last decade. And rightly. GD '22: Believe the MSM now. View Quote We’re literally watching this unfold in real time from dozens of different sources online. Not once has the “mainstream” narrative shaped my opinion. You can count the blown up equipment and troops with your own eyes. |
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Quoted: Quoted: Having and using aren't the same threat level. Once they start lobbing them, that's the Rubicon crossed, and they can't cross back. Everybody who's been putting up with their shit now has to deal with the hard proof that, should Russia decide to go after them, nukes will be used. Those thousand nukes are no longer a passive deterrent, they're an active threat. Then Poland joins the fray? |
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Quoted: Map cultural attitudes towards female autonomy in, say, 1948, to now. Give females self-autonomy and a Western lifestyle, and they turn out not wanting to have very many kids. Religious outliers excepted. And lower economic classes who get paid to have kids. View Quote Japan is the furthest along on that path, but we really don't know what's next. |
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Quoted: Lmao you think the MSM is the only source? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: GD: Doubts MSM for the last decade. And rightly. GD '22: Believe the MSM now. Lmao you think the MSM is the only source? I'll take anything coming out of there with a grain of salt. |
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Quoted: It's a world wide phenomenon, educate and employ women and birth rates crash. It's happened in every country that has modernized. Japan is the furthest along on that path, but we really don't know what's next. View Quote Hopefully we can automate manufacturing fast enough to make up for labor loss. |
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Quoted: Nobody knows. But using nukes is essentially the gunman killing his hostage. After that, all means of deterrence is theoretically gone after that. So at that point you have to think Russia has gone from being rational.... to a guy trying to suicide by having the whole world go up against them. View Quote Whereas we see any nuclear exchange as letting the genie out of the bottle, the Russian/Soviet doctrine had multiple levels. We have recently invented and deployed extremely low yield warheads. Which might indicate a change in our thinking. 5Kt SLBM launched warheads have a different use case than any ballistic missile in our history. Interesting times. I expect the Russians to be desperate and to become even more brutal. Chem weapons maybe? They've done it before. |
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Quoted: Russia has long had a more nuanced view of using nukes. They see a difference between tactical nukes on military targets/formations and city killing strategic weapons. Whereas we see any nuclear exchange as letting the genie out of the bottle, the Russian/Soviet doctrine had multiple levels. We have recently invented and deployed extremely low yield warheads. Which might indicate a change in our thinking. 5Kt SLBM launched warheads have a different use case than any ballistic missile in our history. Interesting times. I expect the Russians to be desperate and to become even more brutal. Chem weapons maybe? They've done it before. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Nobody knows. But using nukes is essentially the gunman killing his hostage. After that, all means of deterrence is theoretically gone after that. So at that point you have to think Russia has gone from being rational.... to a guy trying to suicide by having the whole world go up against them. Whereas we see any nuclear exchange as letting the genie out of the bottle, the Russian/Soviet doctrine had multiple levels. We have recently invented and deployed extremely low yield warheads. Which might indicate a change in our thinking. 5Kt SLBM launched warheads have a different use case than any ballistic missile in our history. Interesting times. I expect the Russians to be desperate and to become even more brutal. Chem weapons maybe? They've done it before. This joke of an army Russia has isn’t capable of fighting in a chem environment. |
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Quoted: Who knows what is really going on. I just wish we had stayed out of it. There is a lot more going on in the conflict than the fighting on the ground The Ukrainians may have a huge win or they may get cut off by Russia. Need to wait a week or so to see how it plays out. The way this is being covered is kind of like a football game. Minute by minute and hour by hour updates. I just find that kind of odd. View Quote |
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Quoted: This joke of an army Russia has isn't capable of fighting in a chem environment. View Quote More UK success will make things less predictable. |
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Quoted: This joke of an army Russia has isn’t capable of fighting in a chem environment. View Quote I think it’s only fair to point out that half the forces fighting for Moscow in Ukraine aren’t regular Russian Army. The Russians lean heavily on militia, chechens, Wagner {ex Russian military} and hodgepodge volunteers from Dagestan and orbital areas. Which is why my main criticism is leveled at Russian air or naval or leadership. Pro Russian channels are beginning to acknowledge leadership failures. That being said, I don’t have high expectations for Russian conscripts. |
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Quoted: Facts and reality are the basis for that claim. I understand you forgot to pack those when you were converting your mom's basement into the fallout shelter where you're currently hiding from the Russian nukes, but someday you're going to run low on cope. Correct. https://i.imgur.com/BtXUpEn.gif Lol. No. U no remember Kyiv offensive? https://i.imgur.com/LIQoXfC.gif View Quote To be fair from 4th of July till these losses the Moscow side has made WW1 snail scale gains that the pro Russian crowd preferred to call “incremental” That being said, if Moscow continues to make strategic mistakes, the Ukrainian military will happily continue to recover land. Ukraine has to manage its resources though, to do so. They haven’t received as much military aid llately from Europe or rather its noticeably reduced. Kiev is hoping these recent achievements will motivate Europe to contribute more but I’m less optimistic much European aid will be delivered until 2023. Hard to capitalize on success when you’re resources aren’t on a timely and useful scale. |
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Quoted: I think it’s only fair to point out that half the forces fighting for Moscow in Ukraine aren’t regular Russian Army. The Russians lean heavily on militia, chechens, Wagner {ex Russian military} and hodgepodge volunteers from Dagestan and orbital areas. Which is why my main criticism is leveled at Russian air or naval or leadership. Pro Russian channels are beginning to acknowledge leadership failures. That being said, I don’t have high expectations for Russian conscripts. View Quote They heavily rely on the people that they treat like 2nd class citizens (Tuvians, Tatars) and other Asians and Caucus people which they treat like dirt. |
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Quoted: Hopefully we can automate manufacturing fast enough to make up for labor loss. View Quote Fiery the Angels fell... (Blade Runner) |
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Quoted: Nobody knows, but article 5 had been invoked for less. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: the question is, several parts to this.. russia has nukes. i assume they have tactical nukes. say they use them on kiev to decapitate ukraine (or someplace else). what does the world do? do the chinese and others continue to support roosha? or when pootin decides to use nukes, thats the last straw and his 'generals' wrap him up in a straight jacket and put him in a padded room and sue for peace? Nobody knows, but article 5 had been invoked for less. Article 5 has been invoked once. While 9/11 was less than a nuclear attack, it was on a NATO member. Perhaps a NATO member could claim Article 5 for fallout that enters their country, but that may be a stretch. Such an attack would be the end of the UNSC as even pretending to be useful if a permanent member vetoes it's own aggressive use of nuclear weapons. |
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This is probably a long way from over still. I'm happy for Ukraines success but it's going to take Putin changing his mind to end this. Tactically defeating Russia on the battlefield isn't a stable solution for the world.
Or Russia changing its leadership. I don't know how likely that is. If we look at history, dictators tend to stay in power because they purge threats out of the system. Putin isn't shy about killing people. So I don't know if there are any senior leaders that will challenge him. |
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Quoted: Hopefully we can automate manufacturing fast enough to make up for labor loss. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: It's a world wide phenomenon, educate and employ women and birth rates crash. It's happened in every country that has modernized. Japan is the furthest along on that path, but we really don't know what's next. Hopefully we can automate manufacturing fast enough to make up for labor loss. |
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Its not over but our battles and wars are still determined by logistics... russia just lost a leg and an arm.
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Quoted: This is probably a long way from over still. I'm happy for Ukraines success but it's going to take Putin changing his mind to end this. Tactically defeating Russia on the battlefield isn't a stable solution for the world. Or Russia changing its leadership. I don't know how likely that is. If we look at history, dictators tend to stay in power because they purge threats out of the system. Putin isn't shy about killing people. So I don't know if there are any senior leaders that will challenge him. View Quote Biden is corrupt and incompetent but Putin is a killer. When Biden claimed to have read the riot act to Putin I laughed. Guessing military leadership will get shuffled. Supposedly 8 Russian oligarchs have died in the last week or two under questionable circumstances. Xi Jingping, Kim Jong Un, Ayatollah Khamanei and Putin haven’t been around so long because they’re nice guys. |
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Quoted: I mean we had great sources regarding the Ghost of Kiev and the Odessa Ass Bandit. I'll take anything coming out of there with a grain of salt. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: GD: Doubts MSM for the last decade. And rightly. GD '22: Believe the MSM now. Lmao you think the MSM is the only source? I'll take anything coming out of there with a grain of salt. The bandit is clearly a joke, and there was very little really information pointing to the ghost being real. Go ahead and read back and you'll see most called the ghost a nice story that's good for morale. |
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Quoted: Article 5 to support which nato member? I think you have to be very careful with that, article 5 raises the stakes significantly. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Nobody knows, but article 5 had been invoked for less. Any member close enough to suffer from fallout? I agree, it does and that's why I don't believe Russia will use nukes. |
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Quoted: Article 5 has been invoked once. While 9/11 was less than a nuclear attack, it was on a NATO member. Perhaps a NATO member could claim Article 5 for fallout that enters their country, but that may be a stretch. Such an attack would be the end of the UNSC as even pretending to be useful if a permanent member vetoes it's own aggressive use of nuclear weapons. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: the question is, several parts to this.. russia has nukes. i assume they have tactical nukes. say they use them on kiev to decapitate ukraine (or someplace else). what does the world do? do the chinese and others continue to support roosha? or when pootin decides to use nukes, thats the last straw and his 'generals' wrap him up in a straight jacket and put him in a padded room and sue for peace? Nobody knows, but article 5 had been invoked for less. Article 5 has been invoked once. While 9/11 was less than a nuclear attack, it was on a NATO member. Perhaps a NATO member could claim Article 5 for fallout that enters their country, but that may be a stretch. Such an attack would be the end of the UNSC as even pretending to be useful if a permanent member vetoes it's own aggressive use of nuclear weapons. Well, NATO bombed Yugoslavia without even invoking article 5. It might be a stretch, but I think that's what will happen. |
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Quoted: LOL. The current solution it to reduce demand. View Quote All the Peter Zeihan fans better examine USA birth rates from 2009-2022 because we’re about to reduce everything. Gen X was notable for being a small population cohort dropping as low as we have the same birth rates now as back then despite 120 million more people and illegal aliens. Attached File Attached File Attached File Attached File Attached File |
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Quoted: Biden is corrupt and incompetent but Putin is a killer. When Biden claimed to have read the riot act to Putin I laughed. Guessing military leadership will get shuffled. Supposedly 8 Russian oligarchs have died in the last week or two under questionable circumstances. Xi Jingping, Kim Jong Un, Ayatollah Khamanei and Putin haven't been around so long because they're nice guys. View Quote This will probably cause a change of tactics but it's far from done. The question is what options do they have for new tactics? As that list gets shorter, things get scarier for the world. |
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Quoted: Any member close enough to suffer from fallout? I agree, it does and that's why I don't believe Russia will use nukes. View Quote Is this the diciest things have been since ABLE ARCHER '83? Which we had no idea was even dicy at the time. That's what makes me nervous. What's going on in the Kremlin? |
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This offensive is certainly a shocker
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Quoted: All the Peter Zeihan fans better examine USA birth rates from 2009-2022 because we're about to reduce everything. Gen X was notable for being a small population cohort dropping as low as we have the same birth rates now as back then despite 120 million more people and illegal aliens. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/18951B73-FC95-465A-94C1-C4594C58BA09_jpe-2523393.JPGhttps://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/486FB893-7254-4663-8B02-4716896D3B4C_jpe-2523394.JPGhttps://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/4859A271-ACB0-4B36-B21A-C5A2C1E6AC25_jpe-2523400.JPGhttps://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/FC4CA745-E801-4FAA-9398-61A1CABC2411_jpe-2523402.JPGhttps://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/45A668F5-3056-405C-994F-000424F70494_png-2523407.JPG View Quote Anyone whining about over population needs to STFU. We're having the opposite problem and it's going to happen fast. |
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Quoted: I agree, the time for Russia to take Ukraine was before it was flooded with western weapons. Apparently Russian logistics couldn't keep up and they move in too far from their resupply. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: I think history is going to view their biggest mistake as not making a major offensive until after Ukraine received so much Western support. They incompetently half assed away a ton of units and wasted years in the Donbass. If they had been smart they would have launched a major offensive just as the Biden administration was taking office. I agree, the time for Russia to take Ukraine was before it was flooded with western weapons. Apparently Russian logistics couldn't keep up and they move in too far from their resupply. Russia tried and lost. Study the details from the beginning of this year's invasion. |
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Quoted: Demand reduction is built in to an extent. Fewer people require less stuff. Lowering of the standard of living is what you're talking about. That will be an issue. View Quote 2007 was the only year after 2000 that the USA hit 4 million births {not including illegals} since the 1989-1993 period of 4 million births each year for Millennials. Before that it was the boomers of the 1950s and early 1960s at 4 million births each year. So colleges are closing and companies will have way more trouble finding employees after 2026. Attached File |
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Quoted: And we're far from the worst in the world. Anyone whining about over population needs to STFU. We're having the opposite problem and it's going to happen fast. View Quote https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/08/26/asia/south-korea-worlds-lowest-fertility-rate-intl-hnk/index.html Attached File |
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Quoted: OMG that map is the basis for that claim? So, to get this straight, Russia has lost 90% of what they have taken since April -- but they still control roughly 90% of what they have taken since February? Is that right? And this is what people consider to be a total collapse along the front? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: It's 90% true even when talking about specific locations; you just need an asterisk for Azovstal and parts of Luhansk. https://i.imgur.com/xWrUaKY.gif So, to get this straight, Russia has lost 90% of what they have taken since April -- but they still control roughly 90% of what they have taken since February? Is that right? And this is what people consider to be a total collapse along the front? Ukraine took back 1,100 square miles in about 4 days. |
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Quoted: To be fair from 4th of July till these losses the Moscow side has made WW1 snail scale gains that the pro Russian crowd preferred to call “incremental” That being said, if Moscow continues to make strategic mistakes, the Ukrainian military will happily continue to recover land. Ukraine has to manage its resources though, to do so. They haven’t received as much military aid llately from Europe or rather its noticeably reduced. Kiev is hoping these recent achievements will motivate Europe to contribute more but I’m less optimistic much European aid will be delivered until 2023. Hard to capitalize on success when you’re resources aren’t on a timely and useful scale. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Facts and reality are the basis for that claim. I understand you forgot to pack those when you were converting your mom's basement into the fallout shelter where you're currently hiding from the Russian nukes, but someday you're going to run low on cope. Correct. https://i.imgur.com/BtXUpEn.gif Lol. No. U no remember Kyiv offensive? https://i.imgur.com/LIQoXfC.gif To be fair from 4th of July till these losses the Moscow side has made WW1 snail scale gains that the pro Russian crowd preferred to call “incremental” That being said, if Moscow continues to make strategic mistakes, the Ukrainian military will happily continue to recover land. Ukraine has to manage its resources though, to do so. They haven’t received as much military aid llately from Europe or rather its noticeably reduced. Kiev is hoping these recent achievements will motivate Europe to contribute more but I’m less optimistic much European aid will be delivered until 2023. Hard to capitalize on success when you’re resources aren’t on a timely and useful scale. It's not just that Moscow is making mistakes. The Ukrainian military is flat out defeating the Russian military. |
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Quoted: And we're far from the worst in the world. Anyone whining about over population needs to STFU. We're having the opposite problem and it's going to happen fast. View Quote Outside of Africa Afghanistan consistently ranks in high birth rates. Attached File |
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Quoted: I'm wondering this also. Is there intel of some mass of troops (50+%) of the force drawing them that is waiting and has the capability to flank the line and cut them off? I believe Ivan has shot his wad, and is either in the process or will be soon, of making like a limp dick and pulling out. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Starting to think that Russia is doing nothing more than grabbing Ukraine's army by the belt and bringing it nice and close so as to deal a crushing blow. Ukraine is letting their supply lines stretch. Hopefully they can maintain the momentum. We need that region destabilized if Xiden is going to enable China to take over administrative control of the entire hemisphere. That's a wild take. Sacrificing 15-20% or more of your troops on the ground to "pull" the Ukrainian army in closer . And counter attack with what? I'm wondering this also. Is there intel of some mass of troops (50+%) of the force drawing them that is waiting and has the capability to flank the line and cut them off? I believe Ivan has shot his wad, and is either in the process or will be soon, of making like a limp dick and pulling out. Would be better if he gets his limp dick cut off. |
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Quoted: 2007 was the only year after 2000 that the USA hit 4 million births {not including illegals} since the 1989-1993 period of 4 million births each year for Millennials. Before that it was the boomers of the 1950s and early 1960s at 4 million births each year. So colleges are closing and companies will have way more trouble finding employees after 2026. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/35F23473-B075-4501-B305-7A759BBDBE06_png-2523417.JPG View Quote The only noteworthy thing I can think of that happened in 2007 is Obama's election. After that the birth rate certainly crashed. |
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Quoted: Spall liner might be a little squishy? There has to be some DATs around here that know the answer. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Oh, no, the sarcasm was readily apparent, but just the thought of "safety features" sent me down a rabbit hole of wondering what, if any, crew collision protection is found inside of tanks. Those guys hit that tree ... fast. There has to be some DATs around here that know the answer. |
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Quoted: It's not just that Moscow is making mistakes. The Ukrainian military is flat out defeating the Russian military. View Quote Taking Izyum was definitely a huge defeat for the Russians. https://www.iswresearch.org/2022/09/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment_88.html?m=1 |
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Quoted: The only noteworthy thing I can think of that happened in 2007 is Obama's election. After that the birth rate certainly crashed. View Quote Economy in Bush’s last year and then under Obama for 8 years was shit and millennials overall are doing so bad economically and or believe in climate change that despite Trump economy they still didn’t have kids then COVID now Biden. |
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Quoted: That's the gamble isn't it? Is this the diciest things have been since ABLE ARCHER '83? Which we had no idea was even dicy at the time. That's what makes me nervous. What's going on in the Kremlin? View Quote No kidding. Able Archer was nearly start of nuclear war. This could spiral out of control. Putin has made this less about the Ukrainians vs Russia and more about the US and Nato vs Russia. The kind of loss the Russians just had makes me wonder if they are thinking they need to hit back hard and fast. It would make them look weak the longer it takes for a response. Are they going scorched earth, take out infrastructure communications and power in Ukraine? Will Ukraine then strike into Russia and do the same thing? There is no way Russia will allow themselves to be pushed back to pre 2014 borders, like Ukraine wants. Who knows, I just hope we can get an off ramp and end this before it gets beyond the point where escalation can't be stopped |
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Quoted: Taking Izyum was definitely a huge defeat for the Russians. https://www.iswresearch.org/2022/09/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment_88.html?m=1 View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: It's not just that Moscow is making mistakes. The Ukrainian military is flat out defeating the Russian military. Taking Izyum was definitely a huge defeat for the Russians. https://www.iswresearch.org/2022/09/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment_88.html?m=1 I'm glad the Kherson thing they kept talking about was not the real main thrust. I was real nervous they were tipping their hand to the Russians. |
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