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Posted: 9/21/2022 4:49:18 PM EDT
[#1]
A wise man once said: “shits on fire, yo”...
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Posted: 9/21/2022 4:55:05 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The chinese commie government has been dealing with unrest. I figure the "covid health lockdowns" are done with an eye toward suppression of unrest. If you remember, there were big demonstrations in China, they were waving the US flag and praising Trump. Then covid happened. Everything was locked down and the demonstrations and reasons for them all but forgotten. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 5:00:28 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Friday is coming! Lower please!!! You keep doing the Rigs routine, but somehow it doesn’t feel authentic. ..I dunno, …you might be Overselling it…  Lethal Weapon 2 (6/10) Movie CLIP - Sometimes I Just Go Nuts (1989) HD  Lethal Weapon (1/10) Movie CLIP - Crazy Cop (1987) HD |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 5:04:47 PM EDT
[#4]
fucking dumpster fire.
one of the things i hate about down days is that i get to see it again when the mutual funds update in the morning. remind me not to look and just keep throwing money at it. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 5:04:49 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Friday is coming! Lower please!!! My spy puts appreciate the sentiment |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 5:18:50 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You keep doing the Rigs routine, but somehow it doesn’t feel authentic. ..I dunno, …you might be Overselling it…  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysIsqzXZyN0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dw45dGMGNYQuote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Friday is coming! Lower please!!! You keep doing the Rigs routine, but somehow it doesn’t feel authentic. ..I dunno, …you might be Overselling it… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysIsqzXZyN0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dw45dGMGNYIt’s not nuts. It’s a tried and true means to build long term wealth and income. Stuff I buy on Friday, just like every Friday, won’t be sold for 20+ years. I’m retiring in 3 years before 55. Stuff l sell for income is shit I bought 30 years ago. Even better is I’ll only pay 15% cap gains and no fed income tax. Buying low is always a good thing. Lower please. Sp500 will hit 10000. Long term. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 5:39:49 PM EDT
[#7]
Repetition compulsion is a psychological phenomenon in which a person repeats an event or its circumstances over and over again.
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Posted: 9/21/2022 5:41:14 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Repetition compulsion is a psychological phenomenon in which a person repeats an event or its circumstances over and over again. like when we won parish champs and I tell everyone about it all the time? |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 5:42:11 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Lower please. Be careful what you ask for. I wish my fellow arfcommers only the best in these most tempestuous of times. We are, after all, in a paradigm change. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 5:54:50 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It’s not nuts. It’s a tried and true means to build long term wealth and income. Stuff I buy on Friday, just like every Friday, won’t be sold for 20+ years. I’m retiring in 3 years before 55. Stuff l sell for income is shit I bought 30 years ago. Even better is I’ll only pay 15% cap gains and no fed income tax. Buying low is always a good thing. Lower please. Sp500 will hit 10000. Long term. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Friday is coming! Lower please!!! You keep doing the Rigs routine, but somehow it doesn’t feel authentic. ..I dunno, …you might be Overselling it… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysIsqzXZyN0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dw45dGMGNYIt’s not nuts. It’s a tried and true means to build long term wealth and income. Stuff I buy on Friday, just like every Friday, won’t be sold for 20+ years. I’m retiring in 3 years before 55. Stuff l sell for income is shit I bought 30 years ago. Even better is I’ll only pay 15% cap gains and no fed income tax. Buying low is always a good thing. Lower please. Sp500 will hit 10000. Long term. I get that, and don’t disagree at all, but this giddy-gloating when it goes up, and then giddy-gloating when it goes down, it’s not plausible. For someone to be authentic and reputable, they have to be somewhat consistent. Otherwise, it just looks like an act. Sure, we all have our contradictions, but it’s a bit much, all I’m saying.. Also, you keep saying “Long Term” but then you say “Retiring in 3 years”. It seems as if the years have crept on by you and you steadfastly refuse to acknowledge that “long term” doesn’t apply anymore.  . Maybe you’re already in the 4th quarter.
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Posted: 9/21/2022 6:00:59 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I get that, and don’t disagree at all, but this giddy-gloating when it goes up, and then giddy-gloating when it goes down, it’s not plausible. For someone to be authentic and reputable, they have to be somewhat consistent. Otherwise, it just looks like an act. Sure, we all have our contradictions, but it’s a bit much, all I’m saying.. Also, you keep saying “Long Term” but then you say “Retiring in 3 years”. It seems as if the years have crept on by you and you steadfastly refuse to acknowledge that “long term” doesn’t apply anymore. . Maybe you’re already in the 4th quarter.He's so good at it he makes money on the ups and downs while working a regular job , but says you can't time the market. I don't know man, seems legit to me |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 6:02:07 PM EDT
[#12]
Quoted: Where’s the doomers that it’s all crashing down as tech bull runs strong? A drop of 1.5% the doomers flood about end of the world. Buy the dip! Buy the dip Buy the di Buy the Wait wut?  |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 6:04:45 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: like when we won parish champs and I tell everyone about it all the time? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Repetition compulsion is a psychological phenomenon in which a person repeats an event or its circumstances over and over again. like when we won parish champs and I tell everyone about it all the time? 
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Posted: 9/21/2022 6:12:07 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Repetition compulsion is a psychological phenomenon in which a person repeats an event or its circumstances over and over again. like when we won parish champs and I tell everyone about it all the time? https://images.gutefrage.net/media/fragen/bilder/polk-high-college-jacke/0_original.jpg?v=1410262841000 I scored two touch downs as a lineman 
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Posted: 9/21/2022 6:12:20 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: He's so good at it he makes money on the ups and downs while working a regular job , but says you can't time the market. I don't know man, seems legit to me Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I get that, and don’t disagree at all, but this giddy-gloating when it goes up, and then giddy-gloating when it goes down, it’s not plausible. For someone to be authentic and reputable, they have to be somewhat consistent. Otherwise, it just looks like an act. Sure, we all have our contradictions, but it’s a bit much, all I’m saying.. Also, you keep saying “Long Term” but then you say “Retiring in 3 years”. It seems as if the years have crept on by you and you steadfastly refuse to acknowledge that “long term” doesn’t apply anymore. . Maybe you’re already in the 4th quarter.He's so good at it he makes money on the ups and downs while working a regular job , but says you can't time the market. I don't know man, seems legit to me It would be Consistent and Plausible if he said that; but that’s not his claim at all. He’s just a “Long Term Bull” so he Loves it when the Market goes down, because it means that each $5000 in, will buy more shares. Shares which will inevitably Triple in value. In the long term. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 6:12:22 PM EDT
[#16]
Spidey is the totally right. Macro bear/bull markets and time-to-return isn't as much as you would think.
That said, I don't share his bounce optimism within 3 years with QT, real estate, international issues, fed rates, and our current government. Edit: changed right to wrong for some reason. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 6:15:54 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I scored two touch downs as a lineman Never attended a school game (high school through college).
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Posted: 9/21/2022 6:17:35 PM EDT
[#18]
Long term spidey is right. I’m doing both…making money shorting as we go down and holding cash to buy in big once it hits bottom. Problem is we have a long way to go down and the pain will get worse. I heard an analyst describe the bottom of the bear market, “it’s when nobody wants to own stocks…that’s the bottom.” So we’re a long way from that capitulation.
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Posted: 9/21/2022 6:18:13 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Never attended a school game (high school through college). Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I scored two touch downs as a lineman Never attended a school game (high school through college). Went to the Jr High ones though? |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 6:24:12 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Long term spidey is right. I’m doing both…making money shorting as we go down and holding cash to buy in big once it hits bottom. Problem is we have a long way to go down and the pain will get worse. I heard an analyst describe the bottom of the bear market, “it’s when nobody wants to own stocks…that’s the bottom.” So we’re a long way from that capitulation. We are what, 20% off highs? Big companies are hitting PEs of single digits and even Tesla is starting to have one that will be double digits soon (what were they, 300 at some point?) |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 6:26:35 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I get that, and don’t disagree at all, but this giddy-gloating when it goes up, and then giddy-gloating when it goes down, it’s not plausible. For someone to be authentic and reputable, they have to be somewhat consistent. Otherwise, it just looks like an act. Sure, we all have our contradictions, but it’s a bit much, all I’m saying.. Also, you keep saying “Long Term” but then you say “Retiring in 3 years”. It seems as if the years have crept on by you and you steadfastly refuse to acknowledge that “long term” doesn’t apply anymore. . Maybe you’re already in the 4th quarter.Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Friday is coming! Lower please!!! You keep doing the Rigs routine, but somehow it doesn’t feel authentic. ..I dunno, …you might be Overselling it… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysIsqzXZyN0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dw45dGMGNYIt’s not nuts. It’s a tried and true means to build long term wealth and income. Stuff I buy on Friday, just like every Friday, won’t be sold for 20+ years. I’m retiring in 3 years before 55. Stuff l sell for income is shit I bought 30 years ago. Even better is I’ll only pay 15% cap gains and no fed income tax. Buying low is always a good thing. Lower please. Sp500 will hit 10000. Long term. I get that, and don’t disagree at all, but this giddy-gloating when it goes up, and then giddy-gloating when it goes down, it’s not plausible. For someone to be authentic and reputable, they have to be somewhat consistent. Otherwise, it just looks like an act. Sure, we all have our contradictions, but it’s a bit much, all I’m saying.. Also, you keep saying “Long Term” but then you say “Retiring in 3 years”. It seems as if the years have crept on by you and you steadfastly refuse to acknowledge that “long term” doesn’t apply anymore. . Maybe you’re already in the 4th quarter.Ok. I’ll try to explain. Again. Stuff I buy this Friday. Like every Friday won’t be sold for 20 years. So I want prices lower. 20 years from now that will produce income. The income I will live off of is a rolling rebalance of stonks held for 30 years once I tame down risk to cap preservation/income. I’ll still be 60-70% growth even then. Growth feeds income products. This is all financial and tax planning. Shit I bought 30 years ago to now feed income is very very much long term. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 6:31:10 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Long term spidey is right. I’m doing both…making money shorting as we go down and holding cash to buy in big once it hits bottom. Problem is we have a long way to go down and the pain will get worse. I heard an analyst describe the bottom of the bear market, “it’s when nobody wants to own stocks…that’s the bottom.” So we’re a long way from that capitulation. And I’ll be right there buying. Learned my lessons. Ain’t scared. Look at the panic sellers in 08-09 |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 6:39:32 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Ok. I’ll try to explain. Again. Stuff I buy this Friday. Like every Friday won’t be sold for 20 years. So I want prices lower. 20 years from now that will produce income. The income I will live off of is a rolling rebalance of stonks held for 30 years once I tame down risk to cap preservation/income. I’ll still be 60-70% growth even then. Growth feeds income products. This is all financial and tax planning. Shit I bought 30 years ago to now feed income is very very much long term. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Friday is coming! Lower please!!! You keep doing the Rigs routine, but somehow it doesn’t feel authentic. ..I dunno, …you might be Overselling it… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysIsqzXZyN0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dw45dGMGNYIt’s not nuts. It’s a tried and true means to build long term wealth and income. Stuff I buy on Friday, just like every Friday, won’t be sold for 20+ years. I’m retiring in 3 years before 55. Stuff l sell for income is shit I bought 30 years ago. Even better is I’ll only pay 15% cap gains and no fed income tax. Buying low is always a good thing. Lower please. Sp500 will hit 10000. Long term. I get that, and don’t disagree at all, but this giddy-gloating when it goes up, and then giddy-gloating when it goes down, it’s not plausible. For someone to be authentic and reputable, they have to be somewhat consistent. Otherwise, it just looks like an act. Sure, we all have our contradictions, but it’s a bit much, all I’m saying.. Also, you keep saying “Long Term” but then you say “Retiring in 3 years”. It seems as if the years have crept on by you and you steadfastly refuse to acknowledge that “long term” doesn’t apply anymore. . Maybe you’re already in the 4th quarter.Ok. I’ll try to explain. Again. Stuff I buy this Friday. Like every Friday won’t be sold for 20 years. So I want prices lower. 20 years from now that will produce income. The income I will live off of is a rolling rebalance of stonks held for 30 years once I tame down risk to cap preservation/income. I’ll still be 60-70% growth even then. Growth feeds income products. This is all financial and tax planning. Shit I bought 30 years ago to now feed income is very very much long term. The context you used ie. “buying today, because S&P 500 will be 10,000 in the long term” That context is only forward looking. You said your Threads are to help Future investors. By definition, that is Forward looking. Forward is all that matters. So, my question is When: When do you think it will be 10,000 ? When does your “Long term” horizon start to tighten up? It’s a question every rational investor needs to ask themselves. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 6:46:56 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: And I’ll be right there buying. Learned my lessons. Ain’t scared. Look at the panic sellers in 08-09 Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Long term spidey is right. I’m doing both…making money shorting as we go down and holding cash to buy in big once it hits bottom. Problem is we have a long way to go down and the pain will get worse. I heard an analyst describe the bottom of the bear market, “it’s when nobody wants to own stocks…that’s the bottom.” So we’re a long way from that capitulation. And I’ll be right there buying. Learned my lessons. Ain’t scared. Look at the panic sellers in 08-09 It's funny that you mention that timeframe. I wonder how it would've turned out if the fed didn't step in and "fix" it. Might be some new lessons to learn in the not too distant future. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 6:55:01 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The context you used ie. “buying today, because S&P 500 will be 10,000 in the long term” That context is only forward looking. You said your Threads are to help Future investors. By definition, that is Forward looking. Forward is all that matters. So, my question is When: When do you think it will be 10,000 ? When does your “Long term” horizon start to tighten up? It’s a question every rational investor needs to ask themselves. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Friday is coming! Lower please!!! You keep doing the Rigs routine, but somehow it doesn’t feel authentic. ..I dunno, …you might be Overselling it… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysIsqzXZyN0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dw45dGMGNYIt’s not nuts. It’s a tried and true means to build long term wealth and income. Stuff I buy on Friday, just like every Friday, won’t be sold for 20+ years. I’m retiring in 3 years before 55. Stuff l sell for income is shit I bought 30 years ago. Even better is I’ll only pay 15% cap gains and no fed income tax. Buying low is always a good thing. Lower please. Sp500 will hit 10000. Long term. I get that, and don’t disagree at all, but this giddy-gloating when it goes up, and then giddy-gloating when it goes down, it’s not plausible. For someone to be authentic and reputable, they have to be somewhat consistent. Otherwise, it just looks like an act. Sure, we all have our contradictions, but it’s a bit much, all I’m saying.. Also, you keep saying “Long Term” but then you say “Retiring in 3 years”. It seems as if the years have crept on by you and you steadfastly refuse to acknowledge that “long term” doesn’t apply anymore. . Maybe you’re already in the 4th quarter.Ok. I’ll try to explain. Again. Stuff I buy this Friday. Like every Friday won’t be sold for 20 years. So I want prices lower. 20 years from now that will produce income. The income I will live off of is a rolling rebalance of stonks held for 30 years once I tame down risk to cap preservation/income. I’ll still be 60-70% growth even then. Growth feeds income products. This is all financial and tax planning. Shit I bought 30 years ago to now feed income is very very much long term. The context you used ie. “buying today, because S&P 500 will be 10,000 in the long term” That context is only forward looking. You said your Threads are to help Future investors. By definition, that is Forward looking. Forward is all that matters. So, my question is When: When do you think it will be 10,000 ? When does your “Long term” horizon start to tighten up? It’s a question every rational investor needs to ask themselves. I already explained it to you. You don’t all of a sudden say “I’m out of the market! Move everything to cap preservation and income!!” No. It’s a rolling movement from growth to income. This happens over 30 years once you stop working. Your previous 30 years should have been aggressive growth. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 6:55:38 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Spidey is the totally right. Macro bear/bull markets and time-to-return isn't as much as you would think. That said, I don't share his bounce optimism within 3 years with QT, real estate, international issues, fed rates, and our current government. Edit: changed right to wrong for some reason. The last bounces (post 2000 and post 2008) were driven by Fed stimulus. That isn't coming this time around. That is the headwind on the macro picture at the moment. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 7:02:17 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Went to the Jr High ones though? No inter-school teams when I went to jr high school. Wouldn't have attended that either (just like when I skipped my graduation). The only time I had a modicum of school spirit was at gunsmithing school (but never attended any games there either - got to shoot at the range with skool boolits). |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 7:12:16 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The last bounces (post 2000 and post 2008) were driven by Fed stimulus. That isn't coming this time around. That is the headwind on the macro picture at the moment. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Spidey is the totally right. Macro bear/bull markets and time-to-return isn't as much as you would think. That said, I don't share his bounce optimism within 3 years with QT, real estate, international issues, fed rates, and our current government. Edit: changed right to wrong for some reason. The last bounces (post 2000 and post 2008) were driven by Fed stimulus. That isn't coming this time around. That is the headwind on the macro picture at the moment. in 2000 they lowered rates down from 6%....what else they do? |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 7:12:45 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: No inter-school teams when I went to jr high school. Wouldn't have attended that either (just like when I skipped my graduation). The only time I had a modicum of school spirit was at gunsmithing school (but never attended any games there either - got to shoot at the range with skool boolits). Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Went to the Jr High ones though? No inter-school teams when I went to jr high school. Wouldn't have attended that either (just like when I skipped my graduation). The only time I had a modicum of school spirit was at gunsmithing school (but never attended any games there either - got to shoot at the range with skool boolits). damn man, you missed out on playing sports ball. It's really fun to tackle people |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 7:32:22 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The last bounces (post 2000 and post 2008) were driven by Fed stimulus. That isn't coming this time around. That is the headwind on the macro picture at the moment. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Spidey is the totally right. Macro bear/bull markets and time-to-return isn't as much as you would think. That said, I don't share his bounce optimism within 3 years with QT, real estate, international issues, fed rates, and our current government. Edit: changed right to wrong for some reason. The last bounces (post 2000 and post 2008) were driven by Fed stimulus. That isn't coming this time around. That is the headwind on the macro picture at the moment. Well, it Might. In fact, the whole world is counting on the fact that it Will; Eventually. But the big question, is When. Do they have to see 3000 before they reverse course? 2800? 2200? |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 8:05:09 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Repetition compulsion is a psychological phenomenon in which a person repeats an event or its circumstances over and over again. Not sure you should be spiking the football; this is the first time you've been right since 2008. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 8:20:05 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Well, it Might. In fact, the whole world is counting on the fact that it Will; Eventually. But the big question, is When. Do they have to see 3000 before they reverse course? 2800? 2200? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Spidey is the totally right. Macro bear/bull markets and time-to-return isn't as much as you would think. That said, I don't share his bounce optimism within 3 years with QT, real estate, international issues, fed rates, and our current government. Edit: changed right to wrong for some reason. The last bounces (post 2000 and post 2008) were driven by Fed stimulus. That isn't coming this time around. That is the headwind on the macro picture at the moment. Well, it Might. In fact, the whole world is counting on the fact that it Will; Eventually. But the big question, is When. Do they have to see 3000 before they reverse course? 2800? 2200? I’m sure a new stimulus will be along, depending on the recession and it’s timing to election season. They can call it “the inflation reduction act”. Oh shit that’s taken. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 9:27:45 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I’m sure a new stimulus will be along, depending on the recession and it’s timing to election season. They can call it “the inflation reduction act”. Oh shit that’s taken. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Spidey is the totally right. Macro bear/bull markets and time-to-return isn't as much as you would think. That said, I don't share his bounce optimism within 3 years with QT, real estate, international issues, fed rates, and our current government. Edit: changed right to wrong for some reason. The last bounces (post 2000 and post 2008) were driven by Fed stimulus. That isn't coming this time around. That is the headwind on the macro picture at the moment. Well, it Might. In fact, the whole world is counting on the fact that it Will; Eventually. But the big question, is When. Do they have to see 3000 before they reverse course? 2800? 2200? I’m sure a new stimulus will be along, depending on the recession and it’s timing to election season. They can call it “the inflation reduction act”. Oh shit that’s taken. The challenge is stimulus spending now is going to have a direct feedback loop into inflation. Which then means higher rates. They went from stability in the dynamical system to an unstable situation. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 9:38:30 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: in 2000 they lowered rates down from 6%....what else they do? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Spidey is the totally right. Macro bear/bull markets and time-to-return isn't as much as you would think. That said, I don't share his bounce optimism within 3 years with QT, real estate, international issues, fed rates, and our current government. Edit: changed right to wrong for some reason. The last bounces (post 2000 and post 2008) were driven by Fed stimulus. That isn't coming this time around. That is the headwind on the macro picture at the moment. in 2000 they lowered rates down from 6%....what else they do? |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 9:40:13 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Well, it Might. In fact, the whole world is counting on the fact that it Will; Eventually. But the big question, is When. Do they have to see 3000 before they reverse course? 2800? 2200? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Spidey is the totally right. Macro bear/bull markets and time-to-return isn't as much as you would think. That said, I don't share his bounce optimism within 3 years with QT, real estate, international issues, fed rates, and our current government. Edit: changed right to wrong for some reason. The last bounces (post 2000 and post 2008) were driven by Fed stimulus. That isn't coming this time around. That is the headwind on the macro picture at the moment. Well, it Might. In fact, the whole world is counting on the fact that it Will; Eventually. But the big question, is When. Do they have to see 3000 before they reverse course? 2800? 2200? The Fed is monitoring 2 things. Inflation and employment. That’s their mandate. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 10:06:07 PM EDT
[#36]
I’ll bring it up again….I think j, Powell is off the esg/great reset/WEF/Davos reservation. He and the central banks have realized these people in charge are effing nuts…and if left to their own devices will destroy our way of life..literally an existential threat to the banks. The only tools they have to fight back are interest rates.
Case in point…Jamie Dimon testifying before congress yesterday told a whacko rep that “hell no he wouldn’t stop financing fossil fuel companies because it would be the road to hell for the US.” These guys…Powell and dimon….”no we will not go into that good night quietly.” |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 10:15:47 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I’ll bring it up again….I think j, Powell is off the esg/great reset/WEF/Davos reservation. He and the central banks have realized these people in charge are effing nuts…and if left to their own devices will destroy our way of life..literally an existential threat to the banks. The only tools they have to fight back are interest rates. Case in point…Jamie Dimon testifying before congress yesterday told a whacko rep that “hell no he wouldn’t stop financing fossil fuel companies because it would be the road to hell for the US.” These guys…Powell and dimon….”no we will not go into that good night quietly.” The Fed is chasing the treasury market. Those rates are up so Fed has to raise. |
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Posted: 9/22/2022 7:32:46 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The Fed is chasing the treasury market. Those rates are up so Fed has to raise. Both Europe and East Asia firms are pouring into the USD. Asia is screwed because China lockdowns and continued Chinese stimulus, Europe is screwed because Russia reliance on gas. I know it’s not the most perfect time for re-shoring but when you are one of the only games in town, might as well take advantage supply side. The other game you want to roll the dice in is India with their cheap Russian gas/cheap labor, but still…it’s India. |
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Posted: 9/22/2022 7:39:12 AM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Both Europe and East Asia firms are pouring into the USD. Asia is screwed because China lockdowns and continued Chinese stimulus, Europe is screwed because Russia reliance on gas. I know it’s not the most perfect time for re-shoring but when you are one of the only games in town, might as well take advantage supply side. The other game you want to roll the dice in is India with their cheap Russian gas/cheap labor, but still…it’s India. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: The Fed is chasing the treasury market. Those rates are up so Fed has to raise. Both Europe and East Asia firms are pouring into the USD. Asia is screwed because China lockdowns and continued Chinese stimulus, Europe is screwed because Russia reliance on gas. I know it’s not the most perfect time for re-shoring but when you are one of the only games in town, might as well take advantage supply side. The other game you want to roll the dice in is India with their cheap Russian gas/cheap labor, but still…it’s India. Boeing is rolling that dice. Crazy times we live in. |
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Posted: 9/22/2022 7:47:36 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The last bounces (post 2000 and post 2008) were driven by Fed stimulus. That isn't coming this time around. That is the headwind on the macro picture at the moment. I dont need a bounce, steady growth is great. Plus dividends, when you look at the cost of the stock being so low, are a pretty good buffer to mediocre growth assuming they do not drop it. |
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Posted: 9/22/2022 7:48:30 AM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I’m sure a new stimulus will be along, depending on the recession and it’s timing to election season. They can call it “the inflation reduction act”. Oh shit that’s taken. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Spidey is the totally right. Macro bear/bull markets and time-to-return isn't as much as you would think. That said, I don't share his bounce optimism within 3 years with QT, real estate, international issues, fed rates, and our current government. Edit: changed right to wrong for some reason. The last bounces (post 2000 and post 2008) were driven by Fed stimulus. That isn't coming this time around. That is the headwind on the macro picture at the moment. Well, it Might. In fact, the whole world is counting on the fact that it Will; Eventually. But the big question, is When. Do they have to see 3000 before they reverse course? 2800? 2200? I’m sure a new stimulus will be along, depending on the recession and it’s timing to election season. They can call it “the inflation reduction act”. Oh shit that’s taken. I don’t think the feds will be dumping any more stimulus. They have to wreck the market and the economy or inflation will keep going. I think it’s probably better to crash it with interest rate hikes instead of waiting for inflation to do it. |
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Posted: 9/22/2022 7:49:15 AM EDT
[#42]
Higher interest rates means higher returns on stock markets
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Posted: 9/22/2022 8:10:17 AM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The last bounces (post 2000 and post 2008) were driven by Fed stimulus. That isn't coming this time around. That is the headwind on the macro picture at the moment. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Spidey is the totally right. Macro bear/bull markets and time-to-return isn't as much as you would think. That said, I don't share his bounce optimism within 3 years with QT, real estate, international issues, fed rates, and our current government. Edit: changed right to wrong for some reason. The last bounces (post 2000 and post 2008) were driven by Fed stimulus. That isn't coming this time around. That is the headwind on the macro picture at the moment. That and we have finally arrived at the boomers all retiring and taking money out of the markets to live on. The last boomer is 60 right now. The volume of 401k money every month no matter what has most likely declined a lot as many boomers retired early due to Covid in the last few years. This is evidenced by the lowest labor participation rate in a very long time. We are finally at the point where the volume of money from people working and putting money into the markets has declined and will stay declined. The boomer 401k bear market is over. It isn’t coming back. The replacement people are mostly illegal immigrants on welfare or working low wage jobs with no benefits off the books. It is a double whammy. We have that happening and people getting squeezed due to inflation and many are probably taking money out of 401ks and have stopped their contributions in order to pay their credit card bills. The paradigm has changed. I expect a long but steady decline in market values for the above reasons. The up side is that as boomers die, those accounts will be left to younger people who will take the money and spend it which I think we are already seeing. We are in never seen before territory boomer and market wise and nobody is talking about it, which gives credence to it is actually happening. It has been talked about for a long time that it was coming, and now nobody is talking about it, because I think it is already here. |
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Posted: 9/22/2022 8:13:57 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Well, it Might. In fact, the whole world is counting on the fact that it Will; Eventually. But the big question, is When. Do they have to see 3000 before they reverse course? 2800? 2200? Fed doesn't give a shit about equities. When things break it will be on the debt/liquidity side. When it does break, money printer will go brrrrr. Case in point, who is going to buy all the feds balance sheet on top of all the other fiscal paper? While the dollar is mushroom stamping every currency out there. |
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Posted: 9/22/2022 8:19:13 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Higher interest rates means higher returns on stock markets Not when a good chunk of the market is leveraged and and the general economy is 70% consumer spending. Higher rates means higher CC bills on current balances, higher car payments higher housing payments, less disposable income. All that equates to less money in the markets from average people. How much remains to be seen. The big 40 year bump of constant 401k money being dumped into markets every month is probably over as boomers retired and take that money out of the markets. We are in uncharted waters. Just because borrowing money will cost more, does not automatically mean more return on investments. |
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Posted: 9/22/2022 5:35:32 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That and we have finally arrived at the boomers all retiring and taking money out of the markets to live on. The last boomer is 60 right now. The volume of 401k money every month no matter what has most likely declined a lot as many boomers retired early due to Covid in the last few years. This is evidenced by the lowest labor participation rate in a very long time. We are finally at the point where the volume of money from people working and putting money into the markets has declined and will stay declined. The boomer 401k bear market is over. It isn’t coming back. The replacement people are mostly illegal immigrants on welfare or working low wage jobs with no benefits off the books. It is a double whammy. We have that happening and people getting squeezed due to inflation and many are probably taking money out of 401ks and have stopped their contributions in order to pay their credit card bills. The paradigm has changed. I expect a long but steady decline in market values for the above reasons. The up side is that as boomers die, those accounts will be left to younger people who will take the money and spend it which I think we are already seeing. We are in never seen before territory boomer and market wise and nobody is talking about it, which gives credence to it is actually happening. It has been talked about for a long time that it was coming, and now nobody is talking about it, because I think it is already here. Boomers maybe retiring but millennials, which are a larger cohort than boomers, are starting to hit their peak contribution years. |
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Posted: 9/22/2022 6:00:00 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Boomers maybe retiring but millennials, which are a larger cohort than boomers, are starting to hit their peak contribution years. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: That and we have finally arrived at the boomers all retiring and taking money out of the markets to live on. The last boomer is 60 right now. The volume of 401k money every month no matter what has most likely declined a lot as many boomers retired early due to Covid in the last few years. This is evidenced by the lowest labor participation rate in a very long time. We are finally at the point where the volume of money from people working and putting money into the markets has declined and will stay declined. The boomer 401k bear market is over. It isn’t coming back. The replacement people are mostly illegal immigrants on welfare or working low wage jobs with no benefits off the books. It is a double whammy. We have that happening and people getting squeezed due to inflation and many are probably taking money out of 401ks and have stopped their contributions in order to pay their credit card bills. The paradigm has changed. I expect a long but steady decline in market values for the above reasons. The up side is that as boomers die, those accounts will be left to younger people who will take the money and spend it which I think we are already seeing. We are in never seen before territory boomer and market wise and nobody is talking about it, which gives credence to it is actually happening. It has been talked about for a long time that it was coming, and now nobody is talking about it, because I think it is already here. Boomers maybe retiring but millennials, which are a larger cohort than boomers, are starting to hit their peak contribution years. And they will inherit that wealth. Only 2 paths that happen. 1. They yolo - consumer spending increases, stocks rise 2. They invest moving from the risk averse stuff parents were in to risk, more demand for us stocks. Stock prices rise. The 10 year rule on inherited IRA will accelerate this. They will be “forced” out of cap preservation/income products into risk. Stock prices rise. No matter what, stock prices rise |
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Posted: 9/22/2022 6:49:53 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted: And they will inherit that wealth. Only 2 paths that happen. 1. They yolo - consumer spending increases, stocks rise 2. They invest moving from the risk averse stuff parents were in to risk, more demand for us stocks. Stock prices rise. The 10 year rule on inherited IRA will accelerate this. They will be "forced" out of cap preservation/income products into risk. Stock prices rise. No matter what, stock prices rise The cognitive dissonance is alarming. Boomers have nothing to pass on. I just read an article that half of boomers aged 56-61 (in 2020) had less than 21k saved for retirement. The median figure for the generation is estimated 202k. The generation will be living almost exclusively on social security or they'll work until they die. A lucky few have pensions which will likely be insolvent by the end of this crisis. How's the cost of healthcare looking these days? Hospice/end of life care? Think 202k is a reasonable amount for boomers to live on for a decade or two? Half of them have even less than 202k. They'll be cashed out in no time. If anything is passed on, it'll be taxed to oblivion to support social welfare programs or used by millennials to repay their massive debts. There will be no wealth transfer. Boomers don't have any money. And they've already raided the treasury. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/04/baby-boomers-retirement/ https://www.yahoo.com/now/average-retirement-savings-baby-boomers-125500443.html |
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Posted: 9/22/2022 6:54:17 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The cognitive dissonance is alarming. Boomers have nothing to pass on. I just read an article that half of boomers aged 56-61 (in 2020) had less than 21k saved for retirement. The median figure for the generation is estimated 202k. The generation will be living almost exclusively on social security or they'll work until they die. A lucky few have pensions which will likely be insolvent by the end of this crisis. How's the cost of healthcare looking these days? Hospice/end of life care? Think 202k is a reasonable amount for boomers to live on for a decade or two? Half of them have even less than 202k. They'll be cashed out in no time. If anything is passed on, it'll be taxed to oblivion to support social welfare programs or used by millennials to repay their massive debts. There will be no wealth transfer. Boomers don't have any money. And they've already raided the treasury. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/04/baby-boomers-retirement/ https://www.yahoo.com/now/average-retirement-savings-baby-boomers-125500443.html Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: And they will inherit that wealth. Only 2 paths that happen. 1. They yolo - consumer spending increases, stocks rise 2. They invest moving from the risk averse stuff parents were in to risk, more demand for us stocks. Stock prices rise. The 10 year rule on inherited IRA will accelerate this. They will be "forced" out of cap preservation/income products into risk. Stock prices rise. No matter what, stock prices rise The cognitive dissonance is alarming. Boomers have nothing to pass on. I just read an article that half of boomers aged 56-61 (in 2020) had less than 21k saved for retirement. The median figure for the generation is estimated 202k. The generation will be living almost exclusively on social security or they'll work until they die. A lucky few have pensions which will likely be insolvent by the end of this crisis. How's the cost of healthcare looking these days? Hospice/end of life care? Think 202k is a reasonable amount for boomers to live on for a decade or two? Half of them have even less than 202k. They'll be cashed out in no time. If anything is passed on, it'll be taxed to oblivion to support social welfare programs or used by millennials to repay their massive debts. There will be no wealth transfer. Boomers don't have any money. And they've already raided the treasury. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/04/baby-boomers-retirement/ https://www.yahoo.com/now/average-retirement-savings-baby-boomers-125500443.html Lol! I pay no mind to averages nor yahoo. I’m talking about people above average. Stop looking at wealth as an average. Because 70% of the population don’t have a pot to piss in. Don’t be average. And that article is fucking shit. It’s only counting tax deferred accounts. Not “how much money do I have to retire on” |
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Posted: 9/22/2022 7:01:00 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That and we have finally arrived at the boomers all retiring and taking money out of the markets to live on. The last boomer is 60 right now. The volume of 401k money every month no matter what has most likely declined a lot as many boomers retired early due to Covid in the last few years. This is evidenced by the lowest labor participation rate in a very long time. We are finally at the point where the volume of money from people working and putting money into the markets has declined and will stay declined. The boomer 401k bear market is over. It isn’t coming back. The replacement people are mostly illegal immigrants on welfare or working low wage jobs with no benefits off the books. It is a double whammy. We have that happening and people getting squeezed due to inflation and many are probably taking money out of 401ks and have stopped their contributions in order to pay their credit card bills. The paradigm has changed. I expect a long but steady decline in market values for the above reasons. The up side is that as boomers die, those accounts will be left to younger people who will take the money and spend it which I think we are already seeing. We are in never seen before territory boomer and market wise and nobody is talking about it, which gives credence to it is actually happening. It has been talked about for a long time that it was coming, and now nobody is talking about it, because I think it is already here. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Spidey is the totally right. Macro bear/bull markets and time-to-return isn't as much as you would think. That said, I don't share his bounce optimism within 3 years with QT, real estate, international issues, fed rates, and our current government. Edit: changed right to wrong for some reason. The last bounces (post 2000 and post 2008) were driven by Fed stimulus. That isn't coming this time around. That is the headwind on the macro picture at the moment. That and we have finally arrived at the boomers all retiring and taking money out of the markets to live on. The last boomer is 60 right now. The volume of 401k money every month no matter what has most likely declined a lot as many boomers retired early due to Covid in the last few years. This is evidenced by the lowest labor participation rate in a very long time. We are finally at the point where the volume of money from people working and putting money into the markets has declined and will stay declined. The boomer 401k bear market is over. It isn’t coming back. The replacement people are mostly illegal immigrants on welfare or working low wage jobs with no benefits off the books. It is a double whammy. We have that happening and people getting squeezed due to inflation and many are probably taking money out of 401ks and have stopped their contributions in order to pay their credit card bills. The paradigm has changed. I expect a long but steady decline in market values for the above reasons. The up side is that as boomers die, those accounts will be left to younger people who will take the money and spend it which I think we are already seeing. We are in never seen before territory boomer and market wise and nobody is talking about it, which gives credence to it is actually happening. It has been talked about for a long time that it was coming, and now nobody is talking about it, because I think it is already here. That’s been a theory for quite a while. Interesting if it’s finally happening. You guys are great at finding Stats and graphs: Can anyone post a chart of the 401K inflows and outflows, by month (or whatever), for the last 5-10 years? Anything that will support or refute Mach’s theory? |
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